From Trade in Goods to Trade in Tasks Regional Networks in Global Supply Chains Project progress...
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Transcript of From Trade in Goods to Trade in Tasks Regional Networks in Global Supply Chains Project progress...
From Trade in Goods to Trade in Tasks
Regional Networks in Global Supply Chains
Project progress reportWTO/IDE-JETRO
Trade determinants
Tariffs
Trade-related infrastructure
Trade patterns
FDI
Trade in intermediate goods
Processing trade
New metrics of vertical trade & TVA
Vertical specialization and domestic content of exports (TVA)
MFN Applied TariffsMFN Applied Tariffs
Source: World Tariff Profiles, 2010
Tariff Escalation in selected Asian economies(percentage)
Source: World Tariff Profiles, 2010
Source: UNCTAD, 2010
Data Source: World Bank – Doing Business.
Regional share of FDI Inward and Outward Flows in total World – 1985, 1995 & 2008, (percentage).
Inward Outward Data Source: UNCTAD, 2010.
Changes in business practices/strategies led to the
development of international outsourcing of input
goods or services
Offshoring
Outsourcing
affiliate non-affiliate
at home domestic production within the
firm
domestic outsourcing
abroadFDI
intra-firm trade
international outsourcing
arms' length trade
The rise of processing trade - Some key figuresThe importance of goods for inward processing in developing economies total exports
and imports (minimum approximation), 2000 2008‑(Billion, US dollars)
Exports, BOP basis
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2000
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2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008
Goods resulting from inward processing Other goods
Imports, BOP basis
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1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008
Goods for inward processing Other goods
Source: IMF Balance of Payment statistics partially completed with WTO estimates for missing data.
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100
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19881989 19901991 19921993 199419951996 19971998 19992000 200120022003 20042005 20062007 20082009
Other commercial services
Intermediates
Total Merchandise
Trends in world trade of total merchandise, intermediate goods and other commercial services,
Index 1988 =100
Source: WTO and UN Comtrade database
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Share of intermediate goods in total non-fuel merchandise trade, 2009, in %
Imports
Exports
Intermediate goods in trade flows reflect the role of a country in the GSC
Source: WTO and UN Comtrade database
Measuring value added and vertical specialization – an Measuring value added and vertical specialization – an illustrative exampleillustrative example
Source: WTO
Statistical issue: Data relevance, i.e. the degree to which data meets reality Traditional measures (custom value, country of origin) could mislead: What You See
is No More What You Get Economic policy issue: international trade policies hinge on the quality of the data used
You can’t manage what you can’t measure: quality of decisions is based on data Systemic issue: Symbiotic relationship between statistics, research and policy:
Research and policy are limited by the availability of relevant and accurate statistics. Policy and academic theory create a need for statistics, determine its relevance and in turn, contribute to its quality
Political issue: economic and social effects of globalization GVCs have fuelled controversies without adequate data for the debate on
Labour issues (industrial VA can track labour content and sectoral origin) Environment issues (direct –transportation- or indirect as IO technical
coefficients relate to production functions)
Why looking for new metrics of international trade?
Need to fill the information gap between reality and available data
Using IIOs to estimate the import and domestic content of exports
• International I-O (II-O)tables show the production and trade linkages by country and sector, origin and destination and how each country/sector's output is used, either as input into other sectors production or as final demand
• II-O tables allow to estimate the value of the imported inputs used directly and indirectly in the production of exported goods, and
• Cover both goods and services
Tool for: Identifying the sectoral source of the national value added imbedded in
exports allowing further research on labour content, CO2 content, …
Source: WTO and IDE-JETRO
World Input-Output Table
- Period: 1995-2006- 40 countries included (EU-15, NAFTA, BRI: Brazil, Russia, IndiaCHN: China, OTHER: Turkey, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia,
Australia
- 59 products (corresponding to CPA)- 35 industries (corresponding to NACE Rev. 1)
Business functions/International Outsourcing
- A new European Survey on Business Functions
Trade by Enterprise Characteristics
- Linkages of business and trade registers to develop firm-level data on import content of exports