From Respectability to Violence?: the Transformation of the Orange

Order since 1950

Social Change in Orangeism Since 1950

A less hierarchical organisation:– Changes in social background of elites and

masses in 20th c– Growth of political populism within

Orange Order since 1950

Rough or Respectable?

• Division between 'Rough' and 'Respectable' (Bryan 2000)

• Division between 'Rebel' and 'Loyalist' traditions since the beginning

• Modernisation shifts the balance

  Rebels Loyalists

Denomination Presbyterian, Methodist Church of Ireland

Plantation Origin Scots-Irish Anglo-Irish

Mass base Industrial Labour, Small freeholders Rural tenants

North American Exemplars ‘Scotch-Irish’ Patriots in USA, c. 1776 Irish Orange Loyalists in Canada, c. 1837

Interpretation of Orangeism Uphold militant Protestantism Uphold traditional British-Protestant values

View of Grand Lodge and Unionist leaders

Skeptical Respectful

Preferred Political Expression Direct Public Protest Informal elite channels

Preferred Orange Principle Ulster-Protestant ethnic interest and reformed faith - as embodied in abstract principle and the sentiments of the mass membership

Orange tradition - as embodied in Orange laws, ordinances, customs and history

Leadership Evangelical clergy, petit-bourgeoisie Aristocracy, Large local businessmen

Political Philosophy Lockean radical change, Populism Burkean evolution, Deference to elite consensus

Attitudes to alcohol, band discipline and traditional social mores

More permissive, with the exception of a small number of moral fundamentalists

Conservative

Stance toward paramilitaries and political violence

More permissive Antagonistic

Attitude toward British crown Conditionality Loyalty

Interpretation of Protestantism Protestantism as dissent Protestantism as tradition

National identity Ulstermen British

Favoured N.I. party DUP UUP

Regional base Antrim, N. Down, Belfast South and West

(Post-)Modernisation and Nationalism

• 'Rebel' side in better accord with modernity

• Thus modernisation = populist ‘nationalism’ while tradition = support for UUP moderates

• Contradicts some post-modernisation theory that sees the decline of ethnic, religious or national identities (ie Giddens)

Predictors of Support for the UUP in the 2001 Election (Protestants only), by Wald Test Statistic

05

1015202530

Age (+)

Education level vs low ed. (+)

Private enterprise (+)

Unionist (+)

Canvassed by uup (+)

Respect for NI assembly (+)

Westm

inster power (+)

Implem

ent GFA (+)

Canvassed by alliance (+)

Canvassed by dup (-)

Dissatisfied British Democ...

Paramilitary Infiltration

– Paramilitaries intimidating and infiltrating Orange Order in inner-city Belfast and even other urban areas

– Dawson Baillie: admits that some members in paramilitaries

– Baillie: acknowledges paramilitary support for parades

– Baillie: cites pressure from grassroots that Order not 'doing enough'

Decline of Skilled-Worker Base in Belfast

Occupations of Belfast Orange Initiates, 1961-86

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1961 1965 1971 1981 1986

Professional &ManagementStudent

Clerk

Apprentice

Labourer

Unemployed

Lodge membership, Portadown District, 1962-2004

0

200400

600

8001000

1200

1400

16001800

2000

Orange membership, N. Ireland, 1958-20041958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

Orange Membership, Belfast, 1962-2002

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

County Armagh membership, 1958-2002

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

Orange membership, Co. Tyrone, 1958-2002

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

Change in Urban Orangeism

– Sharp Membership decline in urban areas and larger towns

– Few (0-5%) young urban Protestant men are in the Order

– Membership losses to alternative forms of Protestant identity (bands, paramilitaries)

– Secularisation, de-traditionalisation, de-industrialisation

– Belfast Order 'adapts' by relaxing moral code and line against paramilitarism in order to retain members

Orange Order Lodges & Density 1991

Orange Order Density 1991

Predictors of Orange Density (DEA level), by t statistic, 1991

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Poor and rural (+)

Migrants (-)

Protestant Unemployed% (-)

Male Orange Density, N.I., 1971

Orange Naughtiness by County, 1964-2002

Expulsion Rate per Member (1991), by County, 1964-2002

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

A Decline of Discipline?

• Ryder & Kearney (2001), as well as Drumcree and interface violence would suggest this

• Some suggest that there has been a change in the culture of Orangeism toward greater permissiveness

• Others claim that the middle class has been deserting the Order

Expulsion Rate, 1964-2002

0.00%

0.01%

0.02%

0.03%

0.04%

0.05%

0.06%

0.07%

Discipline Has Never Been Strong

• Gusty Spence and Robert Williamson, UVF men, sentenced for murder of Catholics, 1966

• Mid-June 1967 debate at Grand Lodge. One lodge moves for non-expulsion, decision deferred for 6 mos. pending outcome of Shankill Rd. petition

• Though suspended in 1967, few similar cases• What has changed is elite's willingness to suspend

for challenging the leadership (ie Spirit of Drumcree vs. Orange & Protestant Committee of 1953-4)

Expulsions from the Orange Order, by Category, 1964-2002

Law 4 (marry/cohabit),

33%

Other RC-related, 11%Crime, 25%

Fraud, 12%

Immorality, 6%

Discipline, 10%

Reasons for Expulsions over Time, 1964-2002

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

DisciplineImmoralityFraud

CrimeRC tot

Profile of Orange Resignations, 1998-2003

Avg 27 Rural NR Bottom 7 NR Top 12 N

Orangemen 2001 6.082114 35.51% 12.43% 58.66% 3368

Resignations98-03 5.852616 15.78% 18.27% 52.94% 767

Difference 0.229497 19.73% -5.84% 5.71%

Postcode Profile of Suspended Orangemen, 2002

Avg 27 NR Bottom 7 NR Top 12 N. Cases

Grand Lodge 3.07 18% 63% 144

Suspended 3.06 35% 41% 296

District Officers 3.02 17% 61% 803

Masters&Sec 3.07 22% 58% 1429

Conclusion: Violence and Paramilitarism

• Young loyalists increasingly favour DUP, less likely to support traditional institutions (churches, Orangeism)

• Change in urban, loyalist culture forces Orangeism to 'adapt' in order to stanch losses

• Changes also affect the Order at the top and cause rifts between country-based 'traditionalists' and militants from the towns and E. Bann counties

• Though violence on the rise, discipline has never been strongly enforced in the Order