FROM ACTOR ANALYSIS TO ACTION PLAN: … · – to deepen the actor analysis (FP I) ... • Two...

FROM ACTOR ANALYSIS TO ACTION PLAN:

WORKSHOP RESULTSNEO-CARBON ENERGY 8th RESEARCHERS’ SEMINAR

Wed-Thu 23.-24.8.2017Lassi Similä, Tiina Koljonen & Amanda Björnberg, VTT

Background and contents– NCE Workshop 23.2.2017 at VTT (Otaniemi)

– to deepen the actor analysis (FP I) and validate the results– Deeper interlinking with energy system analysis (WP2) and

business case analysis (WP3) – From actor analysis to robust action plan

– What are the most important next steps in Finland and who are the most important actors?– Governance and policy analysis– Linkage to energy and climate strategies

From actor analysis to roadmapand robust action plan

• From Vision to Action1. Transformative leadership => “Leadership for

limitless growth”2. Finland as a frontrunner => roadmap and

robust action plan3. Piloting

SOCIETAL VISION 2050Humanity has been able to meet the demand of 55,000 TWh of electricity per year emission free.

Production is mostly automated and artificial intelligences are ubiquitous, making society function highly efficiently.

Working hours are halved and citizens are able to self-organize. People use the new free time for their own and community projects, producing use-value for the rest of society as well.

Vision and its enablers

Vision• Finland as a front-runner in Paris

Agreement implementation

• Transformative leadership

• New actors / new industrialorganisation

• Piloting

(Vision: desirable state of future)

Governance and policy• New Energy and Climate strategy 2030 for Finland

– 38% GHG reduction of non-ETS sector (compared with 2005)– 50% RES from final energy consumption– Phase out of coal, 50% reduction of fossil oil (used for

domestic purposes), 55% of energy from domestic resources

• After 2030 ”New WAM” (With Additional Measures)– GHG reduction 80-95% (compared with 1990 emission level)– XX% RES– XX% reduction of fossil oil

Fulfilling Paris Agreement requires accelerated policies and measures to support and ensure transformation

Group work: From Vision to Action• Who are or could be the key actors? What actions would be

needed?

• Potential actor types include businesses, public governanceorganisations, citizen organisations, consumer groups, etc…

• Potential actions appear in fields of policies, technology development, piloting…

• Two sub-task (Futures Wheels & PESTEC Tables), three groups• 16 participants representing research, business, NGOs

Group work: From Vision to Action• Aim: to define building blocks for roadmap

and action plan for ”Neo-Carbon Finland 2050”

• Guideline: think of Finland as a front-runner in climate change mitigation, implementation of Paris Agreement and the ”new economy” of robotization, environmental businesses etc.

The opportunities for Finnish actors

What could and should these actors be like by 2050? What is the business ecosystem like?

New products, services, ways to operate, organisation models (2020-2030)

Pioneer actors, existing or imaginary

(weak signals)

Futures Wheel: Finland as a frontrunner in new (environmental) business and Paris Climate Agreement

implementation

Futures wheel

11PESTEC 2020-2030 2030-2050

Political

Economic

Social

Technological

Environ-mental/ Energy

Cultural/Customer/Citizen

Analysis of the results• Two independent summaries made by different

researchers of the results of three independentgroups

• One summary was based on oral presentations, whereas the other on written materials by the groups

• The analyses were compared and the common/most highlighted conclusions presented

• This way, it was targeted to minimise an effect of single researcher’s interpretations

14Timeline Ideas about who the actors arethat came up in many groups

New ideas for who or what the actors could be

Existingalready

The Neo-Carbon Energy project and brand Maas (Mobility As A Service)

Startups: EkoRent, Joukon Voima, CO2-esto Non-energy companies enter the market (e.g. Telia Sonera)

Mobility and energy as a service Trial culture (for instance “Nopeat kokeilut” in the Climate Street project)

Communities (e.g. “Uusi Energiapolitiikka”, Energiaremontti, different Facebook groups, energy producing communities and local food –circles)

“City champions” and “energy awards” –new role models in ecological and green lifestyles and leadership are recognized and awarded publicly

Fortum fund

2020 - 2030 V2X (from vehicle to X) –EV:s as mobile electricity storage to increase flexibility

Changes in dietary habits

Citizens have become empowered by digitalization (e.g. increased demand response through a mobile application, increased awareness)

Finland has the image of being an attractive environment for companies and for RES investments, e.g. Tesla cold weather tests, Google data centres..

2050 Cyber security is an important issue and it is connected to the way our societies get their energy; more distributed for safety reasons? Off-grid solutions?

Carbon sink and –reuse companies, industry as a carbon provider

EV Uber / private car ownership and driving has decreased significantly in the OECD

Emissions steer decisions in the same way as prices do today

Grassroots leaders / communities have more power

Conclusions: Actors• Pioneer actors named often fall under categories of policy, public, or

citizen movement actors. • The role of funding and related organisations highlighted repeatedly:

international and national funds, crowdfunding • Events even decades ago may play a role in public acceptance

(”Energy memory”). This may influence in key actors such as citizens, politicians, businesses, and consequently, development and take-up of new solutions.

• Several technological developments identified as enablers/drivers for actors

• Electric Vehicles highlighted by all groups• Storages, distributed and off-grid generation, and artifical intelligence• District heating as a Finnish specialty

• Thinking: technology firms relatively scarcely mentioned. Can weconclude technology readiness soon achieved? Or does this reflectstrong reliance in technology developers?

Conclusions: Actions• Actions under control of Governments strongly higlighted.

• The next electoral terms and Governmental Programmes as concrete steps for actions in Finland.

• Role of citizens also identifiable• Involvelment, concretization, learning, influencing attitudes

mentioned, for example• ”Climate Pearl Harbour”: a big, unexpected event to turn the

atmosphere more progressive for actions.• Actions are driven increasingly by events in multilateral and

dispersed world• Both market logics and values assessed as a frame for actions

identified– Changes in electricity markets necessary for needed actions

Conclusions of the workshop and next steps

• A lot of new ideas expressed especially on PESTEC and Futures wheels

• Further working on innovative ideas and new openings– As building blocks of Roadmap– Priorisation: identifying the most important conclusions– Reporting

EXTRA SLIDES

NCE WORKSHOP 23.2.2017

6.4.2017VTT

Workshop summaryPart I: Futures Wheels and PESTEC Tables

Group 1




(weak signals)


implementation

Futures wheel


implementation

Futures wheel: Group 1

EV Uber

Building aggregator Energy service

ecosystem

Glocal

CCU –circular ecosystem Industry as a

carbon provider

Cities as an ecosystem

Mega factories

Block chain marked mechanism Grassroots

leaders

PET “robot” Personal Energy Trainer

Energy improvement service for households

Carbon sink corporations

Carbon reuse service

R&B ecosystem: Research universities, VTT, Businesses

V2X –EVs as mobile power

Energy Motonet

“Energy store” complete energy service

Energy as a service

Open data solution developers

NCE scenarios in a game to illustrate

Super active citizens

Personal energy trainers

Grassroots groups –communal energy

Solar energy –Public and private solar parks + DSOs

Building open data management service providers NCE ambassadors –

marketing Finland as an attractive country for RE investment

FinPro

DSOs + energy as a service –Retailers communal energy (renting etc.)

V2G aggregators

O&M companies for PV and wind

Autonomous EVs and V2G

Market mechanism for smart storage utilisation

Wood construction companies & bio products

Science centre Heureka (more active role)

Expanded demand response (e.g. phone app)

Power markets + energy markets

Expanded interconnections HVDC

Fortum fund

NCE society game funding from Kone foundation

Electric boats, motorcycles, forest machines, etc.

Mobile EV charging + maintenance

Helen

Energy companies w. new products, especially in customer applications

Zen Robotics

K. Mykkänen & co.

DSOs + retailers net metering

Investments and exports needed

NCE -brand

Event in NY 21.9.2017

Energiaremontti-group: open intra, open data, open innovation

Carbon re-use developers

Ålandsbanken Green card that tracks CO2 from shopping

“Trial –culture”

EV developers (charging stations, vehicles, market mechanisms)

Car companies: EV roll-out

Public and commercial EV charging stations

23PESTEC 2020-2030 2030-2050

Political

Economic

Social

Technological



Carbon footprint –based taxation / pricing. True cost of carbon 100€/t

Ze Day (21.9) for global citizen activation

Acknowledge urgency of climate change mitigation

Focus on energy efficiency + demand reduction

Energy community “Demos” eco-village

Divest from fossil fuels

“Model citizens” awarded in media (“Energy gala”)

Open source innovation

Develop XXX new heating options

Expanded sustainability labelling (e.g. swan) Energy audits

and certificates

Finland a model for “one earth” living –plan / campaign needed

Continued development of gas storage + network

Kinetic energy harvesting from all built environment

Autonomous vehicles on demand

Grids support distributed generation

Open data platforms to be developed

More R&D support for innovation & new technologies

Develop storage capacity

Smart EV charging infrastructure everywhere

GIS apps for emission free Finland

Energy-health-wellbeing story developed

Develop education program fro schools (focus on transition)

Develop “a relationship with energy” for citizens

Slush, Hack, etc. forums for NCE

Visualising catastrophes as early warning to make actions happen

Visualising solutions & making the NCE world attractive

Achieve goals of Paris Agreement

Ban fossil fuels:1. Coal + peat2. Oil3. Gas

Military type action plan to scale down fossil and implement renewables

New, realistic INDC

Re-focus Finland's bio strategy

NCE party: green business party mitigating climate change

Free public transit

Campaign for Finland to become the most attractive investment environment

Update INDC’s 2018 or 2023

Reduce / eliminate EV tax

Ban ICE vehicles

RE minister

Enable net metering

No fossil subsidies

Taxation model for distributed energy supply

Consumer EV prices subsidized

Show where the money from the carbon tax goes

Create “climate biz” governance body Develop “energy

service” markets & mechanisms

Attract new technology investments to Finland

Develop sharing economy biz models

Develop grassroots business models

Develop new heating options

Group 2




(weak signals)


implementation

Futures wheel


implementation

Futures wheel: Group 2

Energy self sufficiency important? Fusion?

Off-grid areas and decentralised energy production

Emissions steer activities in the same way as prices do today

New generations in power –what are their values?

Private car ownership and driving has decreased significantly (OECD)

Technology that we can not yet imagine is in use

Cyber risks are real –off-grid systems is one possible solution

Communities and citizen initiatives have more power (e.g. the future Joukon Voima)

Methane synthesis


Electricity storage both on a local and a utility scale

EVs as electricity storage

Vertical farming on an industrial scale; e.g. nutrient dosing by AIs, algae farming

Hydrogen and methane production through biological route

GMO for fuel production

Increased need for electricity for recycling of CO2

Non-energy companies enter the energy business: e.g. Telia Sonera.

Piloting in Finland, markets global

Startup:CO2 -esto

Startup: Joukon Voima

Distributed energy production: both commercial (e.g. mall roofs) and NGO- and community driven

Virtual energy producers

Gasum

International environmental funds

Taaleritehdas: wind- and solar fund

CO2 capture –Savonlinna, LPR Wärtsilä solar

Fortum funds

Communities that strive to increase cycling, make locally produced food available to city dwellers & more

Maas (Mobility as a service)

EkoRent

Energy producing communitiesAlternatives for moving

all air cables underground (new technologies, off-grid areas..

27PESTEC 2020-2030 2030-2050

Political

Economic

Social

Technological



Energy storage

Small, easy to install PV systems to increase private citizen PV ownership

Communication: positive and engaging

Several new, specialised media channels are needed in Finland

Increase awareness: speaking in schools, online campaigns etc.

Demand flexibility: getting used to the idea

Demand flexibility

Human greed, own interests always at the centre

Environmental values even more strongly present in marketing

Methane emission shock to the atmosphere?

Grass root -level movements and increasing importance of communities

It should no longer be pay off to be a free rider (new markets/ new mechanisms)

Efficiency and functionality of large, regional transmission networks (e.g. Europe –wide)

Negative drivers (e.g. air pollution) are the best at spurring action: there is an imperative to act.

Information wars must be prevented

There’s a need to reach also those who are not in the “green citizen –bubble”: how to get rural residents to live more ecologically?

Politicians who make ecological lifestyles mainstream

Harnessing the welfare state’s existing mechanisms to further ecological sustainability

Carbon tax

Global carbon tax

Global cooperation on environmental issues

How to ensure order and common rules in a polarised world? A new

legitimate power user?

Certificates of origin for energy, also products produced with fossil fuels must disclose this information

Electricity markets work now, but not in the long run without modifications

Affordability of small –scale energy storage

New technologies to feed energy to the grid

Creating a new “common culture”, breaking bubbles

Is the internet –generation more altruistic than Homo Economicus?

Citizen support for the political system and authority

Group 3




(weak signals)


implementation

Futures wheel


implementation

Futures wheel, GROUP 3

The Energy Gang (US)

“Leading figures” (e.g. Trudeau) Who controls /

influences citizens’ actions?

Citizens are not empowered at the moment

Mainstream media and social media

Communities e.g. on Facebook: ecological housing areas

City councils + key civil servants

“Uusi energiapolitiikka” Facebook group

VTT Neo Carbon Energy

CLC

New companies (start-ups)

New model of operation for the welfare state

The picture of good life in Finland

Actors and actions have paid themselves back already

Finland is the country where Tesla cold weather tests are performed

A large citizen debate on new models of operation

More pressure to further and promote RES systematically

Laws are enabling of a C-neutral world and new technologies

New rules, old ones abolished

Blockchain pilot

Cyber security

Concrete new plans for the future are published

“Showrooms” outside Kehä III: solutions for sparsely populated areas

Venture Capital

Enabling buildings

Enablers of new city leadership models

Hack the city

Smart & clean city planning

Citizens have been empowered by digitalisation

Attractive environment for companies

Environmental matters are on the news daily

Evolved relationship to private ownership: e.g. cars

WWF

Energy Internet, 2-way electricity grid by renewal of pricing and taxation

Showrooms and fast trials

Ecosystem of businesses: startups, SMES, corporations

District heating

Mobility and energy as a service

S & C to have bigger role in the cities after social and health reform (SOTE)

Protocols and standardisation for the internet of energy

Big reform in energy (vrt. liikennekaari)

How to influence citizens?

City “champions” who set great examples in leadership

Neighbouring diffusion of innovations

31PESTEC 2020-2030 2030-2050

Political

Economic

Social

Technological


Cultural/Customer/Citizen “Clean city

initiative”

Citizen initiativesMunicipality –level entrepreneurs, frontrunners in service and financing

Make the terminology familiar, keep facts at the centre

Price of PV and wind turbines goes down

+3 C warming becomes a fact

500 PPM .. 1000 PPM CO2

“Basic energy income”

Pilots:-Blockchain-District heating

New consensus –new “truth”

Environmental and energy values (readings) made visible by sensors

Filtering masks for outdoor activities when CO2- levels are too high

Citizen –driven initiatives for new laws concerning renewable energy

From polarisation to a new consensus

Engagement and involvement of citizens

Citizen engagement and involvement happens through digitalisation

Internet of energy

Markets are where there is scarcity

Markets of change

Climate “Pearl Harbour” reassessment of the sovereignty of nations

Basic income (perustulo)

What is the “Neo-Carbon Maternity package” that can be shipped off to the world?

Co-ownership of wind farms

Spearhead projects

R&D support for both large and small companies

Business funding and venture capital

Entrepreneurship

Operational environment

“Pasi –ideology” (radical thinking)

Courage to renew oneself

Government programs 2019-232023-272027-31

Parliamentary elections 201920232027

Increased understanding and identification of the benefits for each party

Getting away from culture of insignificant small-scale actions

NGO

Companies Citizen cities

Politics & Government Organisations

Ideas classified and analysed

Types of actors, e.g. Actor (list who?) Make notes on role

Change needed/Driver

Barriers Timeline (<5 years, ~10 years, 20-30 years)

Importance (low, medium, high)

Businesses VCs, Startups (e.g. CO2 esto, Joukon Voima), renewablefunds

New business ideasthat foster green growth, investment in green technologies

Market mechanism: investing in a cleaner future means everyoneget the benefit –howcan the investor profit?

Starting now; veryimportant over the next 15 years

Important now to get the ball rolling.

Research and technology

Methane synthesis, CO2 capture and utilisation

Driver: the need forenergy-intensive fuels with no emissions.

Expenses. How to attract investments?

Research now under way. Commercial solutions available in 2050.

High

Authorities Legal: make laws enabling of a C-neutral future; Political: promote not only ecological but also social and economical sustainability

Large changes needed, consistency in policy is important, important not to forget about other societal aspects when pushing for the big emission reductions

Polarized political playing field, protectionism, fear, alternative facts.

From now until the goals are reached

Very high

Organisations, NGOs

CLC, WWF, S&C Important in showing the way and creating momentum

New services Maas, bank card that measures your emissions, energy as a service

Empower and engage consumers.

New meters & infrastructure needed for energy as a service?

<5 years, more for energy as a service

Important now to get the ball rolling. Could be veryimportant in 2050?

Consumers Online communities (Uusi energiapolitiikka, energiaremontti),VCs, city “champions”, crowd funding of RES

Driver: people’s will to participate & do good

Bureaucracy, knowledge gap: what actually needs doing?

Starting now, growing in importance over time

Increasing over time.

Actors classified:What actors could be needed to enable ”NeoCarbon style” energy system transformation?

35Timeline Ideas about who the actors arethat came up in many groups


Existingalready





“City champions” and “energy awards” –new role models in ecological and green lifestyles and leadership are recognized and awarded publicly

Fortum fund

2020 - 2030 V2X (from vehicle to X) –EV:s as mobile electricity storage to increase flexibility




2050 Cyber security is an important issue and it is connected to the way our societies get their energy; more distributed for safety reasons? Off-grid solutions?





36EXISTING Ideas about who the actors arethat came up in many groups





Fortum fund “City champions” and “energy awards” –new role models in ecological and green lifestyles and leadership are recognized and awarded publicly


372020-2030 Ideas about who the actors arethat came up in many groups


V2X (from vehicle to X) –EV:s as mobile electricity storage to increase flexibility




382050 Ideas about who the actors arethat came up in many groups


Cyber security is an important issue and it is connected to the way our societies get their energy; more distributed for safety reasons? Off-grid solutions?





NCE WORKSHOP 23.2.2017

6.4.2017VTT

Workshop summaryPart II:

Conclusions based on presentations of groups

Results summarized based on summaries of groups: Task 1• Who are or could be the pioneer actors today – existing and

imaginary. Especially, identify the most important actors to makeFinland a front-runner and ”net beneficiary” in climate changemitigation.

• What products and services do they offer? What are industrial organisations like? How do they operate to reach their goals? Etc. (2020-30)

• How could the actor(s) develop by 2050? What could the business ecosystem be like in 2050?

Results emphasized by Group I • Ways to operate, drivers

– Financial instruments; – Food habits, vertical cultivation– Emission-free as a value, the role of new generations– Self-sufficiency

• Key actors– international and national funds– crowdfunding

• Key technological enablers/breakthrough– Storages, cabling– EVs, transportation– Off-grid solutions– Genetic engineering– Artificial intelligence– Cyber security– Fusion?

• The role of new technologieshighlighted

• Funding and related organisations in key role

• Both financial logics and valuesassessed as drivers

Results emphasized by Group II • Ways to operate: drivers

– Financial innovations– Everything as a service, service layer, creation of services– Gamification, communications– CCU: industry as a catbon producer– Market mechanism, earning logic– Glocal ecosystem (Global + Local)

• Key technological enablers/breakthrough– Electric Vehicle development, autonomous vehicles, Uber-taxi– Local storages– Distributed generation: solar– Artificial intelligence, robots– District heating network– LULUCF

• Key actors– The Minister for Foreign Trade and Development– Energiaremonttiryhmä

(A group on Parliament Members ‘Energy Renovation’)– United Nations– Funding foundations– Heureka science centre– ’NCE’ ambassadors– Cities, buildings as an actor– Good examples, e.g. energy efficiency– Personal trainers for citizens– Consumer

• Pioneer actors named in a concreteway from wide range of society. Mostly, they fall under categories of policy, public, or citizen movenmentactors

• The logics for development largelybased on identified, existing actorsand foreseeable development.

Results emphasized by Group III • Ways to operate: drivers

– A model of interaction considered (see separate slide)– Businesses act only if economic feasibility is in sight– Citizens’ role important; regional democracy, Switzerland(/Honecker?)– Regulation, taxes– Pricing models – Energiewende; long road behid, public acceptance originates from anti-nuclear movement – Energiewende vs Welfare state; willingness to pay – Energy Memory– Public opinion -> gasoline, diesel: brand in Western Europe– Media / Stuttgart; renewing media; education; 1 truth?

• Key technological enablers/breakthrough– Technical functionality of Electric Vehicles

• Key actors– Citizens– Smart & Clean foundation– Facts, research (means to impact)

• Public acceptance and citizens seenas a prime movers to becomeforerunners

• A willigness to pay for new solutionsis rooted in events even decades ago(”Energy memory”). This may drivepoliticians, businesses and development and take-up of new solutions.

Results summarized based on notes on summaries by groups:

Task 2• Identify the actions in different sectors of society needed to

make your vision happen (so that the actor(s) prosper)

Results summarized / emphasized by Group I • Change in electricity market• Guarantee of origin• Citizen learning• Choosing a form of energy• Steering effect• GM food products • Negative labeling• Learning• Normal vs abnormal (social “pressure”)• Institutional learning• Change -> Marketplace• Global Paris Agreement => Tragedy of the Commons

– OPEC – even the powerful cartel having problems in lifting the price 5$ up – Free-rider problem

• Methane emission shock Need for some shocking event • Winners & losers

– Northern Sea Route• Instead of CO2, local pollution as a drivers in big cities Paris, London, China • 1. Methane shock -> not enough• Multilateral world order • 2. No more consensus

– Fragmented, tribalised world– 50-60a Washington consensus– Trump’s USA: withdrawal from international collaboration&agreements

• 3. Hegemony -> who monitors?

• Actions driven by increasingly byevents in multilateral and dispersedworld

• Changes in electricity marketsnecessary for needed actions

• Institutional and citizen learningessential

Results summarized / emphasized by Group II • Getting rid of subsidies -> EVs?• Threat, bribe, blackmail• Use of strong words by institutional leaders such as ban• Economic actions -> carbon tax to reflect real costs of CO2 (40€/t?)• What do you get from carbon tax?• Less subsidies, more taxation• Social side -> personalised energy• Gas infra• Labeling• Neo-carbon party; blue-green business party• Finland as a front-runner; campaigns• “Model citizens” – Emma gala • Built environment: solar, wind• Pricing right (50$/ton)• 1.4% - tax pollution

• Actions under control of bygovernments – such as taxes, subsidies, labeling, most highlighted

• Institutional leadership, campaignsmentioned as softer actions to makethe change happen

Results summarized / emphasized by Group III • Involve• Concretize• Electoral terms + Governmental Programmes• Goal and Vision Common path• Pioneer ideas• Negative threat to impact everyday life: filters to remove extra CO2?• Diesel/gasoline• New businesses => Climate Pearl Harbour• Markets of change• Citizen-driven

• The next electroral terms and Governmental Programmes as concrete steps for actions. ”ClimatePearl Harbour”: a big, unexpectedevent to turn the atmosphere.

• Citized-driven actions: involvementand concretization. Negative threat to impact everyday life of citizens as a potential attitude changer.

FROM ACTOR ANALYSIS TO ACTION PLAN: … · – to deepen the actor analysis (FP I) ... • Two...

Documents

Transcript of FROM ACTOR ANALYSIS TO ACTION PLAN: … · – to deepen the actor analysis (FP I) ... • Two...