Framing the Two-Degree Target

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Framing the Two-Degree Target A Content Analysis of the Two-Degree-Debate in the German News coverage from 2009 to 2014 ECREA 2014 Lisbon, Nov 12th, 2014 Jonas Kaiser Chair of Political Communication Zeppelin University JonasKaiser Markus Rhomberg Chair of Political Communication Zeppelin University MarkusRhomberg Project funded by the German Federal Environment Agency

Transcript of Framing the Two-Degree Target

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Framing the Two-Degree Target A Content Analysis of the Two-Degree-Debate in the German News coverage from 2009 to 2014

ECREA 2014 Lisbon, Nov 12th, 2014

Jonas Kaiser Chair of Political Communication Zeppelin University JonasKaiser

Markus Rhomberg Chair of Political Communication Zeppelin University MarkusRhomberg

Project funded by the German Federal Environment Agency

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1)  What is the Two-Degree Target? |  Goal of international climate policies which aims to prevent the

world warming beyond the limit of two degrees centigrade above the pre-industrial average (Anderson and Bows, 2008)

|  “guiding principle for mitigation efforts” (Meinshausen et al. 2009)

Relevance

Two-Degree Target: a special aspect of the climate change issue

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2) Relevance |  “Two-Degree emerged as a central element of international climate

policy“ (Shaw 2013, p.563) |  “has emerged nearly by chance, and it has evolved in a somewhat

contradictory fashion: policy makers have treated it as a scientific result, scientists as a political issue” (Jaeger & Jaeger 2011).

|  “Goal set by governments” (IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Nov 2014).

Relevance

Two-Degree Target: a special aspect of the climate change issue

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RQ 1) Discourse Structure

| How is the discourse structured? RQ 2) Discourse Producers

Central for this dimension is the concept of Standing (Ferree et al., 2002) | Who is talking about the Two-Degree Target?

RQ 3) Framing

Frame as “a central organizing idea or story line that provides meaning to an unfolding strip of events. […] The frame suggests what the controversy is about, the essence of the issue” (Gamson & Modigliani 1987: 143)

| How is the Two-Degree Target being framed?

Research Questions

Discourse Structure, Discourse Producers, Framing

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1) 6 German daily newspaper & 4 weekly magazines (Print & Online) | die tageszeitung, Die Welt, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung,

Handelsblatt, Süddeutsche Zeitung, Bild | Die Zeit, Focus, Der Spiegel, Stern

2) Time-Frame

| 01.12.2009 – 31.01.2014 | incl. COPs Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban, Doha, Warsaw, Rio+20, 5. IPCC Assessment Report (WG 1)

3) Sample

| 1189 articles in general | 899 with relevant Two-Degree-statement

Methodological Approach

Strategy

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1) Explorative-qualitative Analysis | Goal: Identification of idea-elements (frames) from actor statements | Sample 20% (Media Outlet, Date) | Identification of 26 idea-elements, aggregated to 9 frames | Identification of 140 different groups of actor, aggregated to 7

actor systems (e.g. Political, Scientific, Economic, Civil Society)

2) Quantitative Analysis | Codebook (4 coders, Reliability κ paired bet. 0,4-0,9), incl. list of

actors | Coded according formal criteria (eg. date, outlet, print/online, section)

and content (idea-element, evaluation, actors)

Methodological Approach

Combination of explorative approach and quantitative Frame-Analysis

(cf. Gamson & Modigliani 1989; O‘Mahony & Schäfer 2005; Gerhards & Schäfer 2006)

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1) General Findings and Timeline sd

| Highest coverage during Copenhagen (Dec 2009: 340 articles), after COP 15 coverage decreases (2009: 149), event-peaks

Findings

RQ1: Discourse Structure

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Main Topic Sub Topic Mentioned Total

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1) General | Political actors are dominating the coverage over time (43,5%),

science (29,0), media (11,8), civil society (7,9, especially NGOs and foundations), economy (6,3, esp. energy sector)

Findings

RQ2: Discourse Producers

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50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Politics

Science

Civil Society

(n=1180)

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2) Political system | international organizations are the most important political actors

(UN, IPCC, EU) | German parties are quite silent, especially factions in the parliament | Inner-German debate is lead by executive bodies (Federal

Chancellery, Federal Ministry for the Environment) 3) Scientific system

| Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PiK) guides the scientific debate in the media (31,0%)

| Almost exclusively climate scientists are allowed to talk

Findings

RQ2: Discourse Producers

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What are the most frequent idea elements within the debate? About 75% of all statements deal with the topic of achievability!

10 (n=1393)

Idea Element Per cent In order to achieve the Two-Degree Target emissions have to be limited

21,0

It is necessary to achieve the Two Degree Target 13,1

The Two-Degree Target is only achievable if politics are showing more commitment

7,3

It‘s barely possible to achieve the Two-Degree Target 6,7

The Two-Degree Target is a „real“ goal and thus a guideline 4,5

Findings

RQ3: Framing

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Framing the achievability of the Two Degree Target: It’s not so much a question of necessity but of possible measures!

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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Measures

Possibility

Consequences of failure

Consequences of success

Necessity

(n=1001)

(n=1001)

Findings

RQ3: Framing

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|  The Two-Degree Target is a side topic and even as such steadily losing its prominence within the media’s reporting sd

|  What used to be a political issue slowly evolved to a scientific one – but not because of more scientific but rather due to less political involvement sd

|  The Two-Degree Target is an achievement discourse which mostly deals with the question of how the Target can be achieved and whether it is still possible

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Conclusion In

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Thank You!

ECREA 2014 Lisbon, Nov 12th, 2014

Project funded by the German Federal Environment Agency

Jonas Kaiser Chair of Political Communication Zeppelin University JonasKaiser

Markus Rhomberg Chair of Political Communication Zeppelin University MarkusRhomberg