Forward - Looking Statements · Forward-looking statements are based on the then-current...
Transcript of Forward - Looking Statements · Forward-looking statements are based on the then-current...
Forward - Looking Statements Certain statements contained in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. The words “anticipate”, “continue”, “estimate”, “expect”, “may”, “will”, “project”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions typically are used to identify forward-looking statements. The use of forward-looking statements reflects our current views and/or expectations with respect to our performance, business and future events, and in this presentation includes statements relating to: our expectations relating to our business at the Landqart Mill and the Fortress Specialty Cellulose Mill; our expectations relating to achieving targeted production capacity and cost position at our Fortress Specialty Cellulose Mill; expectations relating to financial performance, EBITDA and margins; foreign exchange impact on EBITDA and revenues; the state of the dissolving pulp markets; expectations regarding future global demand for dissolving and pulp and textile fibres; and expectations relating to the security papers industry and banknote markets. Forward-looking statements are based on the then-current expectations, forecasts and assumptions about the business and the industry and markets in which we operate, including: that our orders at the Landqart Mill will be sustained over the short and long term; there will be no unforeseen delays, disruptions or other market forces negatively affecting our production volumes, sales and relationships with our customers; that the market conditions for dissolving pulp will follow expected trends; that we will successfully achieve planned sales targets and production cost improvements; that foreign exchange rates will not vary materially from current levels and have the impact on our financial results as projected by management; that the equipment will operate as expected; that we will realize significant cost savings from production improvements, cost reduction initiatives and the cogeneration facility; that current depressed dissolving pulp prices are indicative of unusual market conditions and are not sustainable over the medium to long-term; that demand for viscose staple fiber will continue to grow which will result in an increased demand for dissolving pulp; that our strategy of diversifying geographical sales mix will assist in mitigating the application of antidumping duties and reduce our reliance on shipments to China; that the Landqart mill will be successful in securing new orders and operate on a consistent and regular basis; that we will be able to diversify our customer base; that we will obtain any necessary financing on acceptable terms; and that our operations and strategy will allow us to meet our debt repayment obligations or that other arrangements will be available to us on favorable terms. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions which are difficult to predict, including, without limitation: that we may experience additional unforeseen delays, financing difficulties or costs that will impact our projects, operations, financial performance and liquidity; that our dissolving pulp operations and cogeneration plant will not meet anticipated production capacities, efficiencies, utilization rates, cost structure and sales volumes; and those risks relating to our reputation, competition, changes in the market, potential downturns in economic conditions, dependence on major customers, fluctuations in the price and supply of raw materials, foreign exchange fluctuations, labour, regulatory requirements and other risk factors listed from time to time in our filings with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities which are available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. These risks, as well as others, could cause actual results and events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and information, which are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. These statements speak only as of the date of this presentation and we do not undertake any obligations to update such forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable securities law. When we disclose production costs in this presentation, such costs are based on a variety of factors and inputs which may not be comparable to similar types of costs disclosed by other companies. All financial information presented herein is qualified in its entirety by, and should be read in conjunction with our audited and unaudited financial statements and management’s discussion and analysis which are available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Market and industry data contained in this presentation is based upon information, surveys or studies conducted by independent third parties and independent industry or general publications and our knowledge of, and experience in, the markets in which we operate. We have no reason to believe that such information is false or misleading in any material respect, however market and industry data is subject to variation and cannot be verified with complete certainty due to limits on the availability and reliability of raw data, the voluntary nature of the data gathering process and other limitations and uncertainties inherent in any statistical survey. This information has not been independently verified by us or any of our respective directors, officers or representatives and no representation is given as to the accuracy of any of the data from third party sources referred to in this presentation.
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Dissolving Pulp 52%
Security Papers,
48%
• Premier manufacturer and operator in two distinct global business segments: Dissolving Pulp and Security Papers
• Both segments have favorable end-market fundamentals
• Dissolving Pulp Segment (“DP”) serves Viscose Staple Fibre ("VSF") and rayon filament markets
• Fortress Specialty Cellulose ("FSC") ~ 200,000 ADMT mill located in Canada
• 24 megawatt cogeneration power facility supplies renewable energy to Hydro Quebec
• Security Papers Segment produces banknote, passport & visa papers
• Landqart’s ~10,500 tonne mill located in Switzerland • Diverse international customers in Europe, Americas, Africa and Asia
• ~$396 million of upgrades and expansion since 2007**
• Consolidated sales of over $307 million in 2015
Sales Mix By Segment, FY 2015
All figures expressed in Canadian dollars All figures in metric tonnes or air dried metric tonnes (ADMT) **Excluding divestures and FGC 3
-
100
200
300
400
2013 2014 2015
Mill
ion
s $
Sales
Sales
Growing end-markets
High barriers to entry
Strong order book
EBITDA margins anticipated to benefit from focus on improving cost structure
Significant shareholder alignment (insiders own ~18% of shares outstanding, CEO purchased 75,000 shares in June 2016)
4
5
Source:The Future of Cellulose Fibres. Franz Martin Hämmerle. September 2011 www.fmhaemmerle.com/downloads.html
21%
42%
63%
84%
12%
24%
34%
43%
6% 11% 16%
20%
-1.2% -2.5% -3.7% -4.9%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Textile Fibres Demand
Food Demand
Population
Arable Land
Gro
wth
rat
e (
%) • Textile fibre demand growth expected
to increase by over 60% through 2030
• VSF growth has historically outpaced textile fibre demand growth
• Competition for other agricultural products results in less arable land available for cotton production
0.69
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
VSF Irrigated Cotton Rain-fed Cotton
(Ha/
MT)
Arable Land Requirement
6
Source: World Wildlife Fund for Nature, The Future of Cellulose Fibres. Franz Martin Hämmerle. September 2011 7
• 11,000 L to produce 1 pair of jeans from cotton, or 4 pairs of jeans requires a swimming pool quantity of water
• Cotton consumption is responsible for 2.6% of the global water use
but cotton acreage accounts for just 2.4% of the world's arable land
Cotton accounts for ~11% of global pesticide use and ~24% of global insecticides use
445
8,300
11,700
14,300
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
VSF GM Cotton ConventionalCotton
Organic Cotton
(L/H
a)
Annual Water Consumption
Synthetic, 36.5 mt
55%
Natural Fibers, 26.9 mt
40%
Cellulosic, 3.4 mt
5%
Source: The Fiber Year , Hawkins Wright, 2010 World Survey on Textiles & Nonwovens
2015 World Fiber Production 96.7 Million tonnes (mt)
2005
World Fiber Production 66.8 mt
2005-2015 Growth in Volume World Total Fiber Production 34.6%
Cellulosic Fibers (VSF) 80.3 %
Synthetic Fibers (Polyester, Nylon etc.)
66.0 %
Natural Fibers (Cotton) -6.3 % 8
Synthetic, 60.7 mt
63%
Natural Fibers, 29.9 mt
25%
Cellulosic, 6.1 mt
6%
VSF Cotton Synthetics
World Textile Market
Dissolving Pulp
Cotton Linter Pulp
Polyester Nylon, Acrylic,
etc.
9
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
De
c-0
7
Jun
-08
De
c-0
8
Jun
-09
De
c-0
9
Jun
-10
De
c-1
0
Jun
-11
De
c-1
1
Jun
-12
De
c-1
2
Jun
-13
De
c-1
3
Jun
-14
De
c-1
4
Jun
-15
De
c-1
5
Jun
-16
Dissolving Pulp (CCF China) VSF Cotton 328
Dissolving Pulp
Source: CCF Group
Cotton
VSF
Historically VSF traded at a premium to Cotton
Pri
ce (
$U
S p
er T
on
ne)
• High correlation between prices of Cotton, VSF and Dissolving Pulp
• VSF prices have increased ~ 2826 Yuan (~$422 USD) since January 2016 low, yet DP prices have lagged behind and have only risen ~$35 USD since its 2016 low and remain below longer term trend price
VSF recovering to historical premium
10
Recent cotton price trend reversal positive for VSF pricing
• Dissolving pulp production capacity, ~200,000 ADMT/yr.
• Pulp mill capacity utilization provides significant margin upside potential as operations continue to improve – targeting 80% in 2016 and 88% by 2018
• Abundant and secure fiber and energy costs provide a competitive advantage
• Highly trained technical production staff to expand market opportunity
• Management focused on cost reductions, production improvement, power generation and product development to improve margins
Fortress Specialty Cellulose Mill, Thurso, Quebec
11
11,513
19,778 21,373
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
2014 2015 LTM 1Q2016Power Generation Cogen Revenue
12
• Cogeneration power plant came on line September 2013
• Generates reliable energy and reduces energy costs for FSC mill
• External sales to Hydro Quebec provide stable and predictable financial benefit
• 24 MW contract with Hydro Quebec through May 2025
• Continued improvement - targeting 95% efficiency in power generation during 2016
Power Generation
*Based on 352 Days of Production Annually at Contracted Rate
MWH $(‘000s)
20,000
60,000
100,000
140,000
180,000
0
40
80
120
160
200
2013 2014 2015 *LTM1Q16
Millio
ns $
Sales
Sales Shipments
**
-
5
10
Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16
Tho
usa
nd
s
Ending Inventory Dissolving Pulp Segment
Dissolving Pulp
ADMT
13
• Sales totaled $38.8 million for Q1 2016 compared to $35.4 million for the fourth quarter of 2015
• The cogeneration facility generated $5.0 million in sales
revenue from the generation of power in both the first quarter of 2016 and the fourth quarter of 2015
• Operating EBITDA for the Dissolving Pulp Segment for Q1 2016 was $1.3 million, an increase of $4.6 million over the prior year comparative period
• The results of the first quarter were negatively impacted by a ten day shutdown instigated by a blockage issue in the mill and limited digester capacity due to winter conditions; an issue the Company has allocated significant resources to resolve
*Last Twelve Months at end of Q1 2016
(35)
(30)
(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
-
5
10
2013 2014 2015 *LTM1Q16
Mill
ion
s $
EBITDA
ADMT
**
**Includes NBHK
$850 CAD Delivered Cost 0.75 CAD/USD
Dissolving Pulp *PO Price $US/CAD
800
1,066
1,200
1,600
1,600
2,133
EBITDA 39 135 231
$850 CAD Delivered Cost 1.00 CAD/USD
Dissolving Pulp *PO Price $US/CAD
800
800
1,200
1,200
1,600
1,600
EBITDA (9) 63 135
*Average Sales Price of Dissolving Pulp ($/admt, net of duties if applicable)
Pri
ce
($
US
per
To
nn
e)
14
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16
Dissolving Pulp (CCF Price $US) CAD
15
• Global demand for cash is growing at a rate of 4% – 6% per year (over the past four
years India’s annual banknote production has risen from 18 to 25 billion and is expected to soon reach 30 billion)
• Multiple demand drivers: • New or upgraded security features
• Replacement of physically aging banknotes currently in circulation
• Cyclical increases in money supply
• Economic expansion in emerging markets
• New focus on durability
ECB: Banknotes in Circulation SNB: Banknote Circulation
Sources: BIS, ECB, SNB , Currency News and Management Estimates, 16
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Landqart 11%
De La Rue 13%
Arjo 12%
Fabriano 15%
Louisenthal 22%
Crane 7%
Innovia 10%
Other 11%
Source: Management Estimates. All Percentages Approximate
Highly Concentrated And Disciplined Industry
Commercial Sector Security Substrate Production Capacity, 2014
17
Strong market position, track record & established customer base • Sole manufacturer of banknote paper for Switzerland and have manufactured banknotes for
dozens of other countries including the Euro • Produce passport and visa papers for several European, Asian and African countries
Leading industry player with proprietary technology • Proprietary Durasafe® and Durafort® technologies represent the next generation of banknote
paper and provide a competitive advantage • R&D and innovative security features well positioned to meet customers needs
Well-positioned to increase market share and expand margins • Strong order book with fixed orders from existing customers for production in 2016 and 2017
State-of-the-art and highly efficient facilities
• Established reputation for producing banknotes of highest security and quality
Proven and experienced operational management team • Average of ~20 years experience in the security paper products industry
18
• Invested ~$94 million in the Landqart Mill since 2007
• Sustained focus on product innovation builds reputation and market share which contributes to higher margins
• Continuous commitment to improving efficiency and operating costs
• Majority of production operating at >90% utilization level
Landqart Mill, Switzerland
19
Windows
Security Paper
With Watermark
35g/mˢ
Transparent window
40 µm
Polymer core
40 µm
Plain security paper
35g/mˢ Zone of polymer-
infiltrated paper
Total grammage: 110g/mˢ
Total Thickness: 40 µm
20
Durasafe® three layer construction
• SNB launched the 9th series of the Swiss Franc on April 12, 2016. This is the first of six banknotes expected to be phased in by the SNB between 2016 and 2019
• The National Bank of Kazakhstan released the new 20,000 Tenge note December 2015
• Moroccan 25 Dirhams released in Dec 2012 was the worlds first banknote issued on Durasafe® substrate
21
Moroccan 25 Dirhams Kazakhstan 20,000 Tenge
Swiss 50 Franc
• Increased operational flexibility
• Improved quality, efficiency and reliability
• Reduced fixed and internal logistics costs
• Estimated ~CHF 4 million capex – equipment financing for the majority of the project at 1.29%
A new finishing line has been ordered to eliminate the main bottleneck at the Landqart mill. Anticipated increase in finished product capacity up to 15%, depending on product mix, by Q3 2017.
22
2.3%
5.1%
8.1% 7.5%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
2013 2014 2015 LTM1Q16
EBITDA
EBITDA EBITDA as % of Sales*Last Twelve Months at end of Q1 2016
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2013 2014 2015 *LTM1Q16
Sales
Security Shipments
• Q1 2016 sales were $41.2 million compared to $39.2 million for Q4 2015
• Sales were $146.8 million in the twelve months December 31, 2015 compared to $138.7 in the prior year
• The Landqart mill continues to build on a strong order book for 2016 and 2017 comprised of a mix of new and repeat orders
• EBITDA was $11.9 million in the twelve months December 31, 2015 compared to $7.0 million in the prior year
• EBITDA and margins are expected to continue to improve in the short to medium term
tonnes
Mill
ion
s$
Mill
ion
s$
23
*
• On July 12, 2016 Fortress announced that it has successfully completed the sale and leaseback transaction with Procimmo Swiss Commercial Fund II for the sale of its lands and buildings at the Landqart mill site. Purchase price of CHF 44,500,000 (approximately CDN$59 million)*
• 20-year triple-net lease, renewable for an additional two 10-year periods on the same terms and conditions as the primary lease with Landqart having certain repurchase rights
• Net proceeds are expected to be used to repay the Company's convertible debentures and for general corporate purposes
24 *More details on the sale leaseback can be found within the Fortress Paper news release issued on June 6, 2016
25
0
100
200
300
400
2013 2014 2015 *LTM1Q16
Mill
ion
s $
Sales
• Total sales were $80.0 million for the first quarter 2016 compared to $74.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2015
• Sales were $307.6 million in the twelve
months December 31, 2015 compared to $275.9 in the prior year
• 2015 EBITDA was $10.4 million, an increase
of $32.9 million compared to EBITDA loss of $22.5 million for the 2014 year
26 *Last Twelve Months at end of Q1 2016
(60)
(40)
(20)
-
20
2013 2014 2015 *LTM1Q16
Mill
ion
s $
EBITDA
• Cash including restricted cash was $46.9 million at March 31, 2016
- Includes $15.3 million restricted cash of which the majority is expected to be available before the end of 2016
Q1 2016
Year $ millions
2016 42.6
2017 37.0
2018 11.4
Thereafter 155.0
Total 246.0
• Debt including $106.5 million with Quebec government at 5%
• Repayments of principal for debt outstanding as at March 31, 2016 are required as follows:
27
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16
Mill
ion
s $
Quarterly Cash Balance
Cash and cash equivalents Restricted cash