FOR THE INSTALLATION OF FIRE SUPPRESSION … · per Aircraft per Year Cost Benefit Ratio ... Total...

A COSTA COST--BENEFIT ANALYSIS BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOR THE INSTALLATION OFFOR THE INSTALLATION OFFIRE SUPPRESSION SYSTEMS FIRE SUPPRESSION SYSTEMS IN CARGO COMPARTMENTS IN CARGO COMPARTMENTS OF CARGO AIRPLANESOF CARGO AIRPLANES

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/10/Cargolux_B747-400F.jpg

Freighter Fire Protection Cost Benefit Analysis

October 2010 Fire & Cabin Safety Conference – Atlantic City NJ

Freighter Cost Benefit AnalysisWe would like to thankWe would like to thankThe U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and the U.K. CAA

for giving us the opportunity to work for giving us the opportunity to work on this interesting projecton this interesting project



Freighter Cost Benefit AnalysisThe NTSB recommended that fire suppression systems be installed in the cargo compartments of all cargo airplanes operating under 14 CFR Part 121.

Currently, Class E cargo compartments, which are the primary cargo compartment type used in US cargo airplanes, do not require fire suppression systems.



In response to this recommendation, FAA has requested that a cost/benefit analysis be carried out relating to the installation of on-board fire detection and extinguishment systems in cargo airplanes.

Freighter Cost Benefit Analysis



The analysis assessed whether fire suppression systems, fitted to the upper deck cargo bays of cargo airplanes, type certificated to FAR Part 25 and operating under FAR Part 121, are likely to be cost beneficial.





Analysis carried out for aircraft types grouped into weight categories

WEIGHT CATEGORY

AIRCRAFT MAXIMUM TAKE-

OFF WEIGHT

B 12,500 lb to 100,000 lb

C 100,000 lb to 250,000 lb

D 250,000 lb to 400,000 lb

E Greater than 400,000 lb



Potential benefits will result from a reduction in:

Injuries (Fatal and Serious)

Damage incurred to the aircraft and its cargo, and

Damage that might be incurred to property on the ground.





Potential costs are those incurred from:

System Installation

Operation (Fuel Burn, Maintenance, etc.)



Benefit Analysis based on:

Monte Carlo model Statistical distributions derived from data on in-service airplanes and accident information. .





The Monte Carlo model was based on the following Benefit equation:

RTM = Revenue Ton Miles

YearBenefit =

RTMAccidents x

YearRTM x

AccidentCost



Freighter Cost Benefit AnalysisAccident Rate (Accidents per RTM) based on US cargo fleet experience over the period 1967 to 2007:

Four accidents caused by cargo compartment firesApproximately 545,200,000,000 Revenue Ton Miles



Based on an analysis of accident data it was assessed that approximately one in eighteen freighter aircraft fire accidents are likely to result in some degree of Collateral Damage.

Freighter Cost Benefit AnalysisCost of Collateral Damage




0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 100 200 300 400 500 600Cost ($m)

Cumulative Prob

ability

Probability Distribution of the Monetary Value of Collateral Damage



Cost Assessments based on:

– The new Type F Cargo Compartment (considered for combi aircraft) using a Halon type fire suppression system together with suitable cargo compartment liners. The data used in the cost assessment was based on that contained in the ARAC document relating to main deck class B cargo compartments.


A COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOR THE INSTALLATION OFFIRE SUPPRESSION SYSTEMS IN CARGO COMPARTMENTS OF CARGO AIRPLANES

Conclusions:Conclusions:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/10/Cargolux_B747-400F.jpg

Conclusions Conclusions --CostsCosts



Freighter Cost Benefit AnalysisConclusions: Cost

System Development,

0.1%

Liner Development,

0.2%

System Installation,

24%

Liner Installation,

45%

Fuel, 30%

Maintenance, 2%



Freighter Cost Benefit AnalysisConclusions: Cost

Weight Category

Total Cost per Aircraft

per Year

B $50,791C $156,053D $290,182E $446,008

Conclusions Conclusions --BenefitsBenefits




Collateral damage costs do not appear to contribute significantly to the prediction of benefit. Crew injuries (fatal and serious combined) are a significant factor in the prediction of benefit. Aircraft value is the largest contributor to the prediction of benefit.

Conclusions: Benefit



Freighter Cost Benefit AnalysisConclusions Cost Breakdown:

Collateral5%

Aircraft58%

Crew Fatal24%

Crew Serious2%

Cargo11%

1715\Model\Issue2 ‐ Summary of Results.xlsx



Freighter Cost Benefit AnalysisConclusions: Benefit

Average, 7.4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Benefit per year for the US fleet ($m)

Confiden

ce Level

1715\Model\Issue 2 ‐ Summary of Results.xls

90 Percentile range, 2.0 to 16.9



Freighter Cost Benefit AnalysisConclusions: Benefit

WEIGHT CATEGORY BENEFIT

B NEGLIGIBLEC $640D $4,100E $19,900



Freighter Cost Benefit AnalysisConclusions: Cost v Benefit

Weight Category

Average Benefit per Aircraft per

Year

Total Cost per

Aircraft per Year

Cost Benefit Ratio

B NEGLIGIBLE $50,791 N/A

C $640 $156,053 244

D $4,100 $290,182 71

E $19,900 $446,008 22




Halon fire suppression systems, or alternatives that are likely to be developed for below floor cargo compartments, are unlikely to be cost beneficial for the main deck cargo compartments of cargo aircraft of any weight category.

Conclusions:




However, other fire suppression systems may prove to be cost beneficial.

Conclusions:



Freighter Cost Benefit AnalysisConclusions: Weight Category C:

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Total System Weight (lb)

Installation Cost per Aircraft (US$2007)

Not Cost Beneficial

Cost Beneficial

Threshold Benefit Line(Benefit = $640 per a/c per year)




0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000



Not Cost Beneficial

Cost Beneficial

Threshold Benefit Line(Benefit = $4,100 per a/c per year)

Conclusions: Weight Category D:



Freighter Cost Benefit AnalysisConclusions: Weight Category E:

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000



Not Cost Beneficial

Cost Beneficial

Threshold Benefit Line(Benefit = $19,900 per a/c per year)



Freighter Cost Benefit AnalysisThe Report:

DOT/FAA/AR-09/17 “A Cost-benefit Analysis For The Installation Of Fire

Suppression Systems In Cargo Compartments Of Cargo Airplanes”

may be obtained from the FAA website http://www.fire.tc.faa.gov/pdf/09-7.pdf

http://www.fire.tc.faa.gov/pdf/09-7.pdf



Thank youAny Questions?



Assessed Number of Revenue Ton Miles for 1967 to 2007:

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Year

RTM

(Tho

usands)

i/1715/003

Approximately 31,354,000,000

Revenue Ton Miles in 2007




Freighter Cost Benefit AnalysisAssessed Number of Revenue Ton Miles for 2007 :

WEIGHT CATEGORY REVENUE TON MILES (2007)

B 13,500,000 C 1,764,400,000

D 6,107,900,000

E 23,468,600,000



Assessed Distribution of Assessed Distribution of ““Crew NumbersCrew Numbers””

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Number of Crew

Cumulative Prob

ability

i/1715/004


WEIGHT CATEGORY

B

WEIGHT CATEGORY

C

WEIGHT CATEGORY

D

WEIGHT CATEGORY

E




Assessed Distribution of Aircraft Value for Assessed Distribution of Aircraft Value for US Cargo Fleet 2007US Cargo Fleet 2007

Aircraft Value

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Cost ($m)

Cumulative Prob

ability

i/1715/012

WEIGHT CATEGORY

BWEIGHT CATEGORY

C

WEIGHT CATEGORY

D

WEIGHT CATEGORY

E



Freighter Cost Benefit AnalysisAssessed Average Cargo Value per flight for US Cargo Fleet 2007:

WEIGHT CATEGORY

CARGO VALUE ($ MILLIONS 2007)

B 0.14C 1.1D 2.6E 4.1



Primary DamageCrew Injuries (Fatal and Serious)Damage incurred to the aircraft and its cargo, and

Damage that might be incurred to propertyPersonnel Injuries (Fatal and Serious)


Cost per Accident based on:

FOR THE INSTALLATION OF FIRE SUPPRESSION … · per Aircraft per Year Cost Benefit Ratio ... Total...

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