Fisher Presentation CERI 2015 Petrochemical Conference
description
Transcript of Fisher Presentation CERI 2015 Petrochemical Conference
CERI 2015 Petrochemical Conference
June 8, 2015
Forward-looking InformationThis presentation contains forward-looking statements. When used in this presentation the words “may”, “would”, “could”, “will”,“intend”, “plan”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “seek”, “propose”, “estimate”, “expect”, and similar expressions, as they relate to AltaGas orany affiliate of AltaGas, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. In particular, this presentation contains forward-lookingstatements with respect to, among others things, business objectives, expected growth, results of operations, performance, businessprojects, opportunities and financial results.
These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differmaterially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. Such statements reflect AltaGas’ current views with respect tofuture events based on certain material factors and assumptions and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties including withoutlimitation, changes in market competition, governmental or regulatory developments, changes in tax legislation, general economicconditions and other factors set out in AltaGas’ public disclosure documents. Many factors could cause AltaGas’ or any of itsbusiness segments’ actual results, performance or achievements to vary from those described in this presentation, including withoutlimitation those listed above as well as the assumptions upon which they are based proving incorrect. These factors should not beconstrued as exhaustive. Factors which could cause results or events to differ from current expectations are: capital resources andliquidity risk, market risk, commodity price risk, operational risk, volume declines, weather, construction, counterparty risk,environmental risk, regulatory risk and labour relations. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or shouldassumptions underlying forward-looking statements prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described in thispresentation as intended, planned, anticipated, believed, sought, proposed, estimated or expected, and such forward-lookingstatements included in this presentation herein should not be unduly relied upon. These statements speak only as of the date of thispresentation. AltaGas does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update these forward-looking statements except asrequired by law. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified as cautionary statements.
Financial outlook information contained in this presentation about prospective results of operations, financial position or cash flows isbased on assumptions about future events, including economic conditions and proposed courses of action, based on management’sassessment of the relevant information currently available. Readers are cautioned that such financial outlook information containedin this presentation should not be used for the purposes other than for which it is disclosed herein. Additional information relating toAltaGas can be found on its website at www.altagas.ca. The continuous disclosure materials of AltaGas, including its annual MD&Aand Consolidated Financial Statements, Annual Information Form, Information Circular, and Proxy Statement, material changereports and press releases, are also available through AltaGas’ website or directly through the SEDAR system at www.sedar.com.
1
~2 Bcf/d of natural gas
transacted
1,530 MW of power generation
in five fuel types1
5 Utilities serving over
560,000 customers
Delivering clean and affordable natural gas to homes and businesses
AltaGas - Diversified, Clean Energy Infrastructure
1 Includes projects under construction2 2015FSee “forward-looking statements & information”
2
Generating clean energy with natural gas and renewable sources
Processing and moving natural gas to key markets including Asia
Gas
Power
Utilities
GasPowerUtilities
EBITDA2
by segment
AltaGas - Integrated Export Market Infrastructure
1 Ferndale Terminal is owned by Petrogas and operated by AltaGas2 Includes Petrogas’ assets and capabilities
See “forward-looking statements & information”3
New storage, rail & truck offloading
Abundant natural gas
Existing extraction, processing & fractionation
PNG pipeline expansion
ASIAN MARKETS
Rail, truck &
pipelines2
NORTH AMERICAN MARKETS
RAW GAS
SALES GAS
NGL
Fort Sask. hub2
Under development or evaluation
Storage, rail & truck offloading2
PNG pipeline
New processing infrastructure
LPG west coast terminal
LNG terminal expansion
Ferndale Terminal1
Douglas Channel terminal
AltaGas - Building Alliances with Producers
Signed a 15-year strategic alliance with Painted Pony Petroleum Ltd.
• Natural gas and NGL processing infrastructure and marketing services
• Supports reserve growth in the Montney
• Provides new markets for production
• Phase I: 198 Mmcf/d Townsend shallow-cut natural gas processing facility
• Build-out of additional infrastructure expected
See “forward-looking statements & information” 4
AltaGas - Building Alliances with Consumers
Strategic joint venture with Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd.
• AIJV formed to pursue opportunities involving exports of LNG and LPG
• Idemitsu own 51% of Astomos who operate 21 VLGCs (roughly 13% of the global fleet)
• Direct access to LPG markets and receipt terminals in Japan and other Asian countries
• Own two-thirds of a leading North American marketer of LPGs (Petrogas)
• Support ongoing development of the only existing LPG export terminal located on west coast of North America (Ferndale)
See “forward-looking statements & information” 5
Discussion Framework - CERI Study No. 139
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• Base supply outlook discussion on CERI Study No. 139 dated July 2014
• Information presented in the best case scenario (“LNG Tsunami”)
• Will also consider slow growth scenario (“Nowhere Fast”) and more pessimistic view
Discussion Framework - Natural Gas Prices
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• Large number of unknowns associated with natural gas prices
• Possible that the “Nowhere Fast” scenario is optimistic
• Actions taken today will influence future prices
Discussion Framework - Natural Gas Production
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• NGL discussions will be based upon a continued grow in WCSB production
• Adds 6.0 BCF/D by 2030 at a CAGR of 2.0%
• LNG exports have a crucial role to play
Discussion Framework - Crude Oil Prices
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• Like natural gas, large number of unknowns associated with crude oil prices
• Crude oil prices influence the development of both NGLs and LNG
Future Outlook - US Propane
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• Supply volumes could double from 2012 levels by adding over 1,000,000 BBL/D near 2020
• Flows with Canada will reverse from net US imports to net US exports
• Exports (includes propylene) trending around 500,000 BBL/D – could grow to 1,000,000 BBL/D
Future Outlook - Canadian Propane
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• Begin imports from US in 2016 with volume rising to 75,000 BBL/D by 2030
• Increase in Canadian production of 136,000 BBL/D to 378,000 BBL/D by 2030
• Assumes new PDH plants in Alberta by 2011 using 66,000 BBL/D
Future Outlook - Canadian Propane
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• Canadian net exports of propane to US go to 0 BBL/D by 2020
• Assumes that new LPG export facilities will make up for loss of all US exports
• The Obvious: “Canada Needs New Markets for Propane”
13
Seaborne LPG Trade – Flow Patterns
EuropeDemand:Supply:
AfricaDemand:Supply:
Middle East
Demand:Supply:
ChinaDemand:Supply:
SE AsiaDemand:Supply:
Japan / Korea
Demand:Supply:
OceaniaDemand:Supply:
North America
Demand:Supply:
South America
Demand:Supply:
West of Suez Market
East of Suez Market
Import Area Country
Export Area Country
Future Cargo Flow
Cargo Flow
Supply growth in Middle East, Oceania (East of Suez) To be absorbed into demand in emerging
countries, Petrochemicals in Asia
Supply growth in Africa, North America (West of Suez) To be absorbed into demand in
Petrochemicals in the U.S. and Europe and/or to Asia Market as arbitrage
To South America
To Europe
14(1) Source: Apache (LNG shipping times from Kitimat)(2) Source: Targa(3) Source: Waterborne (Southeast Australia to Yokohama)(4) Source: Chevron (LNG shipping time from Western Australia)
Seaborne LPG Trade – Shipping Days
15 (2)
13 (2)
17 (2)25 (2)
41 (2)31 (2)
22 (2)
19 (2)
31 (2)
5 (2)
12 (2)
10 (1)
14 (3)
10 (4)
Shortest shipping times of all major global LPG sources
Seaborne LPG Trade – Focus for Canadian Exports
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• Initial industry focus on propane with potential volume of up to 75,000 BBL/D
• Potential for butane exports if supply conditions warrant
• Largest competition will come from USGC sourced propane: will compete on price
• Concentrate on markets that offer shipping cost advantage: Japan, South Korea, and China
• Leverage other advantages: stable government, portfolio effect, safe-water port, direct route
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• Roughly 80% of LPG supply delivered to Japan, Korea, and China is sourced from the Middle East
• Prices for propane and butane set monthly by Saudi Aramco - traditionally high correlation with Brent
• Buyers used to rely on Brent futures for hedging, but CP swap market is improving; indexes for delivered supply – such as Argus Far East Index (FEI) - are developing, but tend to be illiquid
East Asian Markets – Saudi Contract Price (CP)
East Asian Markets – Driven by Arbitrage
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• Edmonton Netback = Delivered Price From Middle East – Cost to Delivered from Edmonton
= (Saudi CP + Freight to Japan) – (Rail Costs + LPG Toll + Freight to Japan)
• Rail costs and higher LPG Toll for Canadian supply to be partially offset by lower shipping costs to Asian markets: Expect Canadian prices will return to “historical” discounts to MTB
East Asian Markets – Stable with Growth Potential
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• Demand in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan stable with slow growth: Japan’s import requirements were recently adjusted upward due to lower refinery production of propane
• Key growth market will be China where propane will be used as feedstock for new PDH plants: 5 plants now operating with 4 new plants to come on in the next 2 – 3 years
• Demand in Indonesia, Thailand, and India expected to rise with population and economic growth
Million Ton/Year
Canadian LPG Exports – The Opportunity
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Canada’s annual consumption
~3 TCF
Montney and Duvernay estimated to have more
than 3,000 TCF of gas in place1
• Stable and safe source of supply to meet global demand for clean source of energy
• Natural gas producers committed to safe operations and continuous improvement
• Proximity to Asian markets vs the USGC
Canadian LPG Exports – AltaGas Activity so Far
Ferndale
• Exporting LPG to Asia
‒ First export of propane took place April 2015
‒ Butane exports started August 2014
• 750,000 BBL of current storage capacity
• Exported ~3,000,0001
BBLs in 2014
• Ramping up to 30,000 BBL/D over next few years
1 Since May 1, 2014See “forward-looking statements & information” 20
Site feasibility underway and in dialogue with potential off-takers
See “forward-looking statements & information” 21
Canadian LPG Exports – AltaGas Future Plans
Thank You
See “forward-looking statements & information” 22