Fig. 1-1 ©2008 CSM Making Project Decisions The noblest of pleasure is the joy of understanding...
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Transcript of Fig. 1-1 ©2008 CSM Making Project Decisions The noblest of pleasure is the joy of understanding...
Fig. 1-1©2008 CSM
Making Project Decisions
The noblest of pleasure is the joy of understandingLeonardo De Vinci
Life’s
Fig. 1-2©2008 CSM
Two skills critical to the quality of life are:
Parenting
Decision Making
Two skills critical to the quality of life are:
Parenting
Decision Making
Decision Issues - 1
Formal training in either is rareFormal training in either is rare
Fig. 1-3©2008 CSM
A Fit Decision Maker
Understands the decision significance Has the right decision statement Knows the proper frame and the associated
selection criteria Knows the amount of uncertainty Knows the information required and how to
get it Is skilled in the right decision process Is able to manage peer group biases Is emotionally centered and fit to make the
decision
Understands the decision significance Has the right decision statement Knows the proper frame and the associated
selection criteria Knows the amount of uncertainty Knows the information required and how to
get it Is skilled in the right decision process Is able to manage peer group biases Is emotionally centered and fit to make the
decisionFit Decision Maker
Fig. 1-4©2008 CSM
Systems Engineering Decisions
Requirements Determination Concept Selection Architecture Selection Interface Definition Specification Quantification Requirements Flowdown Lower Level Concepts and
Architectures Verification Plans Validation Plans Anomaly Resolution Etc.
Requirements Determination Concept Selection Architecture Selection Interface Definition Specification Quantification Requirements Flowdown Lower Level Concepts and
Architectures Verification Plans Validation Plans Anomaly Resolution Etc.
Fig. 1-5©2008 CSM
Decision Significance and Uncertainty
Significance of Decision Consequence
Un
cert
ain
ty
Selecting A New
Restaurant
Selecting A Beverage To
Drink
Open Heart Surgery By World’s Best
Surgeon
Critical Decision Zones
First Customer for Bungee
Jumping With New Company
Fig. 1-6©2008 CSM
High Uncertainty and High Consequence Example
Accident ruling over bungee jump death Feb 25 2005Evidence from an inquest into the horrific death of a 22-year-old Welsh student at a charity jump raises safety concerns for jumpers across the UK. Chris Thomas plunged to his death after leaping from a 180ft crane in the car park of a pub in Swansea. An inquest heard yesterday that Chris weighed 132kg. But an expert investigation discovered that the rope holding him had a maximum load weight of just 90kg, and should not have safely held more than 70kg.
Fig. 1-7©2008 CSM
Two Relevant Questions
We want to make good decisions, so what is a “good decision?”
We want to make good decisions, so what is a “good decision?”
How are decisions and consequences related?
How are decisions and consequences related?
Fig. 1-8©2008 CSM
A Good Decision A good decision is an alternative selection based on
sound logic and relevant information (the head factor) and the selection is consistent with ethics based instincts (the heart factor)
A good decision selects the alternative with the best chance of achieving the opportunity (outcome) given the information available at the time
Decision processes provide guidance to achieving a logical selection
A good decision is an alternative selection based on sound logic and relevant information (the head factor) and the selection is consistent with ethics based instincts (the heart factor)
A good decision selects the alternative with the best chance of achieving the opportunity (outcome) given the information available at the time
Decision processes provide guidance to achieving a logical selection
Fig. 1-9©2008 CSM
Outcomes (Consequences)
A good decision can result in a good or bad outcome A bad decision can result in a good or bad outcome Criticism of a good decision that resulted in bad
outcome is unjustified, but it is common, especially by sports commentators
A good decision can result in a good or bad outcome A bad decision can result in a good or bad outcome Criticism of a good decision that resulted in bad
outcome is unjustified, but it is common, especially by sports commentators
Fig. 1-10©2008 CSM
What is a Decision?
Application of opportunity-seeking judgment resulting in action
– Decisions may or may not be binding
– Consequences may or may not be permanent
– Actions may include unmanageable risk
Application of opportunity-seeking judgment resulting in action
– Decisions may or may not be binding
– Consequences may or may not be permanent
– Actions may include unmanageable risk
People judge themselves by their best intentions Others judge people by their worst action
People judge themselves by their best intentions Others judge people by their worst action
.F
Fig. 1-11©2008 CSM
There Are A Variety Of Alternative Judgment Methods
8. Probability Based8. Probability Based
7. Fact Based7. Fact Based
6. Expert Based6. Expert Based
1. Indifference Based1. Indifference Based
5. Intuition Based5. Intuition Based
4. Emotion Based4. Emotion Based
3. Addiction Based3. Addiction Based
2. Authority/Peer Pressure Based
2. Authority/Peer Pressure Based
Fig. 1-12©2008 CSM
Judgment Process Suitability
Defensible for business decisions
Not suitable for business decisions
4 and 5 may influence the final selection
8. Probability Based8. Probability Based
7. Fact Based7. Fact Based
6. Expert Based6. Expert Based
1. Indifference Based1. Indifference Based
5. Intuition Based5. Intuition Based
4. Emotion Based4. Emotion Based
3. Addiction Based3. Addiction Based
2. Authority/Peer Pressure Based
2. Authority/Peer Pressure Based
Evidence BasedEvidence BasedEvidence BasedEvidence Based
Fig. 1-13©2008 CSM
My Younger Brother Takes on Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger!
Stockton RecordFront page,22 September 2006
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Lodi Resident Byng Forsberg
The point is…What’s hard about decisions? Communication and language.
My younger brother is older than I am.
Fig. 1-14©2008 CSM
Defensible Decision Processes
Increasing Uncertainty Of Relevant Decision Information
Requires uncertainty and value attitude knowledge
Decision Tree Analysis
8
High Uncertainty Probability Based
Bayesian Team Support
Requires beliefs, alternatives, preferences
Expert Decides
6
Expert Based
Instant decisionInformed
Judgment
Kepner Tregoe (KTA) Analysis
Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) aka Pairwise Comparison Analysis
7
Low Uncertainty Fact Based
Pugh’s Method
Prioritize, Weighted Scores & Other Factors
Prioritize, Weight, and Rate +, 0, -
Dominance Analysis
Consequence Table and Even Swaps
Prioritize, Weighted Scores & Other Factors
Rank Summing
Sums relative criteria rankings
Fig. 1-15©2008 CSM
Kepner Tregoe Form - Example
Decision Statement:
Evaluation Criteria:
Musts (Go/No-Go):
Wants:
Max Score (10xW):
Total Score:
Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Alternative 4
Score Score Score ScoreWeight Comments Raw Comments Raw Comments Raw Comments Raw
( R ) ( R ) ( R )( R ) R*WR*W R*W R*W
Car
“I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving this goal, before this decade is
out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to earth”
President John F Kennedy, May 25, 1961
“I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving this goal, before this decade is
out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to earth”
President John F Kennedy, May 25, 1961
Fig. 1-17©2008 CSM
Kepner Tregoe - Example
Decision Statement:
Evaluation Criteria:
Musts (Go/No-Go):
Wants:
Max Score (10xW):
Total Score:
Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Alternative 4
Score Score Score ScoreWeight Comments Raw Comments Raw Comments Raw Comments Raw
( R ) ( R ) ( R )( R ) R*WR*W R*W R*W
Domestic Car Japanese Sports Car Domestic Minivan Italian Sports Car
Under $25,000Transport 5 People
Fuel economy
Good acceleration
Crash Safety
Carry Garden Supplies
26.2 MPG
10.5 sec
High Ratings
Small capacity
20.0 MPG
7.0 sec
Avg. Ratings
Large Capacity
8
6
10
9
370
10
3
2
10
80
18
20
90
248
6
10
10
7
48
60
100
63
Good for dates (16 yo.) “Cool image” Conservative4 10 40 6 24
295
YYY NYNY N
Select the best vehicle to meet the needs of the Patrick family. (Mom, dad, and three kids, ages 5 to 16)
Max Score = Sum of Weights X 10
May wish to “normalize” so that max score is 100 or 1000
Fig. 1-18©2008 CSM
Evaluate Other Factors That Can Influence The Selection
For the highest scoring alternatives evaluate other factors
– Factors not evaluated
– New evidence
– Emerging opportunities
– Emerging risks
Incorporate actions to enhance opportunities and mitigate risks
Re-score candidates Make informed selection
For the highest scoring alternatives evaluate other factors
– Factors not evaluated
– New evidence
– Emerging opportunities
– Emerging risks
Incorporate actions to enhance opportunities and mitigate risks
Re-score candidates Make informed selection
TROUBLE! People in my path!
Fig. 1-19©2008 CSM
Other Factors Evaluation – Kepner-Tregoe Example
Decision Statement:
Evaluation Criteria:
Musts (Go/No-Go):
Wants:
Max Score (10xW):
Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Alternative 4
Score
Weight Comments
Domestic Car Japanese Sports Car
• Under $25,000
26.2 MPG avg. 10
Y
Select the best vehicle to meet the needs of the Patrick family. (Mom, dad, and three kids, ages 5 to 16)
Domestic Minivan Italian Sports Car
• Transport 5 people Y
Y
Y
Y
N N
N
• Fuel Economy
• Good acceleration
• Carry garden supplies
• Crash safety
• Good for dates (16 yo)
3
2
10
10
Raw(R) R*W
8
6
10
9
4
80
18
20
90
40
10.5 sec
Small capacity
High ratings
“Cool image”
Score
Comments
20.0 MPG avg. 6
10
10
7
6
Raw(R) R*W
48
60
100
63
24
7.0 sec
Large capacity
Ave. Ratings
Conservative
Score
CommentsRaw(R) R*W
Score
CommentsRaw(R) R*W
Total Score:
370
248 295
Issue IssueP PS SResidual Risk
P = Probability
S = Seriousness
H = High
M = Medium
L = Low
1. If reliability does not improve from last year’s model (as dealer promised), the car will require service more often
2. If family size is increased sedan will not be large enough
1. Recent crash tests reveal poor occupant protection and new owners reporting below advertised gas mileage
H L
L H
H H
Mid-Size Domestic Domestic Minivan
Selected
The decision process is not complete until other factors have been considered.
The highest scoring candidate may not be the best choice.
The decision process is not complete until other factors have been considered.
The highest scoring candidate may not be the best choice.
Fig. 1-20©2008 CSM
Success in Decision Making in Capability-Based Acquisition Concepts
Customer involvement
– Concurs in problem statement
– Reviews and concurs with criteria and weights
– Understands options (which include favored approach, if known)
– Reviews final results before, not after, the presentation
Your management support when needed Clear presentation of results
– Use graphic display of numeric data whenever possible
– Use KTA Matrix whenever possible
– Use tabular display of numeric data as supporting info
Customer involvement
– Concurs in problem statement
– Reviews and concurs with criteria and weights
– Understands options (which include favored approach, if known)
– Reviews final results before, not after, the presentation
Your management support when needed Clear presentation of results
– Use graphic display of numeric data whenever possible
– Use KTA Matrix whenever possible
– Use tabular display of numeric data as supporting info
Fig. 1-21©2008 CSM
Questions?
Comments?
Discussion?