Fergus Sinclair ICRAF Systems Science
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Transcript of Fergus Sinclair ICRAF Systems Science
The challenge
• Fine grained variation in:
– soil (biota)
– climate (altitude)
– farming practices
– household characteristics
– market opportunities
– social capital
– policy and its implementation
Pruned trees
Free growing trees
Earthworm cast weight
Sample with no
earthworm casts
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0 5 10 15
Separation distance (m)
Sem
ivariance
Cross-semivariogram
Greater soil biological activity (earthworms) near trees but effect greater for some tree species than others
Pauli et al 2010 Pedobiologia
The challenge
• Fine grained variation in:
– soil (biota)
– climate (altitude)
– farming practices
– household characteristics
– market opportunities
– social capital
– policy and its implementation
The challenge
• Fine grained variation in:
– soil (biota)
– climate (altitude)
– farming practices
– household characteristics
– market opportunities
– social capital
– policy and its implementation
The challenge
• Fine grained variation in:
– soil (biota)
– climate (altitude)
– farming practices
– household characteristics
– market opportunities
– social capital
– policy and its implementation
The challenge
• Fine grained variation in:
– soil (biota)
– climate (altitude)
– farming practices
– household characteristics
– market opportunities
– social capital
– policy and its implementation
The challenge
• Fine grained variation in:
– soil (biota)
– climate (altitude)
– farming practices
– household characteristics
– market opportunities
– social capital
– policy and its implementation
The challenge
• Fine grained variation in:
– soil (biota)
– climate (altitude)
– farming practices
– household characteristics
– market opportunities
– social capital
– policy and its implementation
Characterize variation in context across scaling domain
Influence development projects so that sufficient intensification options are offered to farmers across
sufficient range of variation in drivers of adoption
Initial matrix of intensification and resilience options and the contexts in which they work (soils, climate, farming system, planting niche, resource availability, institutions)
Participatory monitoring and evaluation system for the performance of options
Scaling upSimple to use tools to match options to sites and circumstances across the scaling domain
Generate understanding of suitability of options in
relation to context – and the cost effectiveness of
different combinations
refined characterization
refined options
Scaling outApplication of understanding about cost effective options for different contexts beyond the current scaling domain
Global comparative understanding of how to improve livelihood systems, emergent from the place-based research complex.
Coe, R., Sinclair, F. and Barrios, E.(2014). Scaling up agroforestry requires research ‘in’ rather than ‘for’ development. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 6: 73–77.
Local effects - trees increase crop yields from meta analysis of >90 trials across sub Saharan Africa
• Mean yield of maize after coppiced and non-coppiced tree fallows (various species) is > 1 t ha-1 doubling default practice of many farmers in many years (no nutrient inputs).
• Very large standard error around the mean – indicates performance varies with circumstances – we need to know where particular trees will increase yields by a large enough amount to merit farmer input in the technology
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rtili
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Yield difference = Treatment-control yield
Control = maize without nutrient input
HGMLs = herbaceous green manure legumes
Sileshi G, Akinnifesi FK, Ajayi OC and Place F (2008) Meta-analysis of maize yield response to planted fallow and green manure legumes in sub-Saharan Africa. Plant and Soil 307: 1-19.
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Increase in maize yield over control after sesbania fallow (t ha-1)
Cumulativeprobability
From: Sileshi et al., 2010. Field Crops Research. Based on meta analyses of over 90 trials across sub-saharan Africa
50% probability of no increase in yield or worse on Nitosols (saturated fertility?)
Risk – what is the probability that a farmer will get a threshold increase in yield on different soils?
60% probability of > 1 t ha-1 increase in yield on Luvisols
Coe et al., (in press). Loading the dice in favour of the farmer: reducing the risk of adopting agronomic innovations. Experimental Agriculture
Teasing out agroforestry options for different contexts to accelerate impact of fertiliser trees in Malawi
Simple examples from southern Africa
Landscape position Effect (t/ha)
foot 1.38ridge 0.21slope 0.68upland 0.81
Elevation Effect (m) (t/ha)
500 1.631000 0.461500 -0.74
Crop Effect (t/ha)cotton -0.25groundnut 0maize +3.40soya +0.70
Gliricidia effects
Faidherbia effects
Sesbania effects
+ Social, economic + other performance measures
http://blog.worldagroforestry.org/index.php/2015/10/14/for-every-tree-a-reason-research-in-rather-than-for-agroforestry-development/
ACCIAR Trees for food security – Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi
Farmers articulate need for systems research to ACIAR evaluators: project highly ranked, given more funding and invited to develop CN for 5M second phase 2017-2020
New 3 M USD ACIAR bilateral project on underpinning investment decisions to develop value chain innovation platforms in Uganda and Zambia
Patricia Masikati
We will be able to get agroforestry considered in impact predictions by IFPRI (links to PIM)
Overcoming major problems: official maps don’t match reality in Vietnam – our new characterisationof maize growing on slopes changes the game.
Annual crops (from MONRE map)
Google Earth image
Tuan Giao, Dien Bien
I am trying things out here first and if they work well, I will expand to other areas of my farm over there
The paternoster principle: reconciling bottom up (participatory trials) and top down (incentives for scaling up).
Farmers continue to achieve 4 t ha-1 maize but with an additional 6-9 t ha-1 of fodder for livestock worth 360-540 USD and erosion reduced by 30-40%, which on average, saves 24 t ha-1 yr-1 of soil containing 26.4 kg of N, 2.4 kg of P and 98.4 kg of K.
This Son Tratree produces 100 Kg of fruit each year
enough income to buy a motor bike
Novel products developed (extract and instant tea) from son tra processing now subject of a technology transfer agreement with private sector partner, Tay Bac Tea and Special Food Ltd
http://blog.worldagroforestry.org/index.php/2015/07/01/son-tra-the-hmong-apple/
Featured on Vietnamese television
Options for women: fruit (with value
added through marketing and processing into juice and jams) – quick wins - tree tomato, passion fruit and papayas - yield all year round and can start to harvest a year after planting; leguminous shrubs like calliandra, tephrosia and sesbania as well as local species for stakes for climbing beans, firewood and improving soil fertility and food crop yield; they prefer Grevillea to Eucalyputus in woodlots (because of impact on soil)
Meliferous species for indigenous people (the BaTwa) Dombeya goetzinii, Prunus africana, Albiziagummifera, Hagenia abyssinica
Native species for river banksArundanaria alpina, Khaya anthoteca, Miliciaexcelsa, Markhamia lutea, Myrianthus hosltii
Julien Harneis
Windbreaks on pastures Podocarpus
spp, Ficus spp, Erythrinaabyssinica, Grevillearobusta, Croton megalocarpus
Congo River/Photo © Greenpeace / Philip Reynaers Robert Caputo
Rebecca Blackwell / AP
WWF
Smith Dumont et al., (in press). Tree diversity key to developing inclusive agroforestry options for stakeholders. http://blog.worldagroforestry.org/index.php/2015/11/06/beyond-eucalyptus-woodlots-whats-on-the-agroforestry-menu-for-communities-around-virunga/ Experimental Agriculture.
http://blog.worldagroforestry.org/index.php/2015/07/31/she-who-makes-the-rules-wins/
New theory of empowerment reveals way forward for CBFM in Kenya to mitigate rather than exacerbate vulnerability (policy).
Equity
World Vision collaborates in use of planned comparisons to accelerate impact of scaling up soil and water conservation in Ethiopia and Kenya
Novel application of Bradley-Terry model makes quantitative sense of farmer
ranking of tree attributes in terms of their suitability for growing with coffee
Lamond et al., (in press). Local knowledge of tree attributes underpins species selection on coffee farms. Experimental Agriculture
IFAD adopts FTA outputs in GEF pilot on fostering resilience in agriculture in 12 countries in Sub-saharan Africa
Fostering Sustainability and Resilience for Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa
Agriculture Surface runoff Habitat connectivity
Trade off maps
Trade offs – Polyscape
Roots of recoveryA tale of two villages – Africa Rising
Ministries go for cocoa options in Peru Rediscovering our trees - DRC