Fabby_Pengantar Perubahan Iklim
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MEMAHAMIPEMANASANGLOBAL&PERUBAHANIKLIM
FabbyTumiwa
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EFEKRUMAHKACA
CC
2
IPCC 2007
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KESEIMBANGANENERGIRADIASI
3IPCC 2007
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Efek rumah kaca mengakibatkan terjadinyaEfek rumah kaca mengakibatkan terjadinyafenomena Pemanasan Global.
Radiasi matahari yangdipantulkan oleh bumi diserapy g p poleh atmosfer bumi yangmengandung gasgasrumah kaca.
Peningkatan konsentrasi GasRumah Kaca (GRK)diatmosfer terjadi akibat berbagai aktivitas manusia.
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DAFTARGASGASRUMAHKACA
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Gas Rumah Kaca dihasilkan dari berbagaiGasRumah Kaca dihasilkan dari berbagaiaktivitas:pembakaran bahan bakar fossildalamuntuk kegiatan transportasi,pembangkitang p , p genergi,proses industri;pertanian,penggunaanlahan,pembabatan hutan,dan lainsebagainya.
Dalam suatu siklus karbon,GRKdikeluarkan dandiserap.Penambahan konsentrasi GRKpmenyebabkan kemampuan penyerapan karbonoleh alam berkurang.
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SIKLUS KARBONSIKLUSKARBON
8IPCC 2007
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Lebih banyak CO2yangtertinggal di Atmosphere
MoreCO2 RemainsintheAtmosphereHuman activities have pumped excessive amountsHumanactivitieshavepumpedexcessiveamountsofcarbondioxide(CO2)intotheatmosphere.NaturalprocessesthatabsorbCO2cannotkeepup.Astheoceanabsorbscarbondioxide,itbecomesmore acidic This combined with increasing oceanmoreacidic.Thiscombinedwithincreasingoceantemperatures,diminishesitsabilitytocontinueabsorbingCO2.Asaresult,moreCO2staysintheatmosphere.In 1960 a metric ton (1 000 kilograms; ~2 205In1960,ametricton(1,000kilograms;~2,205pounds)ofCO2emissionsresultedinaround400kilograms(~881pounds)ofCO2remainingintheatmosphere(Figure1).In2006,ametrictonofCO2emissions results in around 450 kilograms (~992emissionsresultsinaround450kilograms(~992pounds)remainingintheatmosphere.[2] HenceatonofCO2emissionstodayresultsinmoreheattrappingcapacityintheatmospherethanthesameton emitted decades agotonemitteddecadesago.
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Apa yangmenyebabkan peningkatantemperatur global?temperatur global?(a) Hasil modeldan observasi
peningkatan temperatur dari prosesalami
(b) Hasil modeldan observasipeningkatan temperatur akibataktivitas manusia
(c) Hasil model dan observasi(c) Hasil modeldan observasipeningkatan temperatur akibat prosesalami dan aktivitas manusia.
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Konsentrasi CO2 Atmosferik Global
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Thermometers:globalThasrisen0.8Cin125yrs
C
G b h 95%Greenbarsshow95%confidenceintervals
Upwardtrendcontinues;2005wasanewrecord;wereat0.8Cabove18801900average;0.5Csince1970.
J.Hansenetal.,PNAS103:14288293(26Sept2006)
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DAMPAKPENINGKATANPEMANASANGLOBAL
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KENAIKANMUKALAUTGLOBAL
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KENAIKANPERMUKAANAIRLAUT
IPCC 2007:IPCC2007:for19612003:Data1.8mm/yearModels1.2mm/year
LinearTrend19932008:3.2mm/yearIPCCTARbestestimate:2.0mm/year
17Updatedfrom:Rahmstorfetal.Science2007
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SeaLevelRisebyEndofThisCenturyNewanalysisprovidesestimatesforsealevelrisebytheendofthis
t b t l ibl l l d h i ll ibl th h lcenturybetweenaplausiblelevelandaphysicallypossiblethoughlesslikelylevel.Source(IPCC2007andPfeffer etal.2008)
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A hl CUnequivocalWarmingofEarth..
AshleyCooperPicimpact/Corbis
Thaw
q g f
Source: IPCC, UCS, 2007
N
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AvalancheFlood
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Heatwave
Coral BleachingDroughte rs
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UK gov AS
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Earthhaswarmed0.74C(TARpredicted0.6ConBAU)SeaLevelRise
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FutureRisks:b f ( )
FutureRisks:FutureRisks:b f ( )
FutureRisks:b f ( )RiseAbove19801999of12C(1.83.6F)
Increasesomecereal
RiseAbove19801999of23C(3.65.4F)~15%oft t i l
AshleyCooperPicimpact/Corbis
RiseAbove19801999of34C(5.47.2F)~40%ofterrestrial A
F
P
Increasedwateravailability high
RiseAbove19801999of45C(7.29.0F)Significantextinctions
Morenavigable
productivitymidhighlatitudes
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Upto30%ofspeciesatincreasingriskof extinction
terrestrialbiospherebecomesnetcarbonsource
terrestrialbiospherebecomesnetcarbonsource
Decreasecerealproductivitysomeregions
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extinctionsaroundtheglobe
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Decreasesomecereal
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Decreasefreshwater
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Millionsmorepeoplecould
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Decreaseallcereal
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Increaseddeaths,disease,andinjurydueto floodsA P
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Most corals
cerealproductivitylowlatitudesF
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UNICEF
NewYorkTimes
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experiencecoastalfloodingeachyear
S
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Widespreadcoralmortality
A
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S Largeincreaseareaburned
productivitylowlatitudesF a
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~30%ofglobalcoastalwetlandslost
F
W
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5m
Increases inUK gov
Increasedmortalityfromdroughts
Altered
Increasedfrequencyofcardio
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MostcoralsbleachedDisappearanceof
Glaciers
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Replacementoftropicalforestby
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N
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Committolongtermicesheetmelt
t ib ti f
Increasesincoastalwatertemperatureworsenscholera
UK.gov Altereddistributionofdiseasevectors
cardiorespiratorydiseasesduetoclimateinduced
N
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A
A
w
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x
p
savannaineasternAmazonSource:
IPCC, UCS, 2007Source: IPCC, UCS, 2007
contributionof46meterssealevelrise
abundanceSource: IPCC, UCS, 2007
smog
Source: IPCC, UCS, 2007
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WHOestimatesclimatechangealreadycausing150,000premature deaths/yr in 2000prematuredeaths/yrin2000
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INSTITUTEFORESSENTIALSERVICESREFORM(IESR)
www.iesrindonesia.org
TERIMA KASIH
www.iesr indonesia.org
TERIMA KASIH