Expansion of the Earth’sEconomic Sphere

Harrison H. SchmittSymposium on:

The Future of Space Exploration

Boston University

April 12, 2007

NASA PHOTO

•Cold War Political Goals of Eisenhower and Kennedy to Advertise Free Institutions Were Met•Soviet Union Leadership Impressed

–Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative Later Became Creditable

•America Succeeded - Soviets Did Not•Pride and Confidence of Humankind Enhanced•Peoples of Earth Encouraged About Their Future•“Space-faring” became an International Imperative

APOLLO’S COLD WAR LEGACYAPOLLO’S COLD WAR LEGACY

APOLLO’S SOCIETAL LEGACYAPOLLO’S SOCIETAL LEGACY• New Evolutionary Status

– Human Species Can Live on Moon and Mars• Rapid Improvement in Human Condition on Earth

– Acceleration of Technological Expansion– Hazard Definition and Risk Determination

• Future Terrestrial Energy and Environmental Improvement– Conversion Efficiencies Enhanced– Lunar Helium-3 Fusion and Solar Power Options Identified

• Space Settlement Resources Identified on the Moon– Hydrogen, Oxygen, Water, and Food

APOLLO’S SCIENTIFIC APOLLO’S SCIENTIFIC LEGACYLEGACY

• First Order Understanding of Origin and Evolution of the Moon

• Basis for Interpretation of Post-Apollo Information About the Moon– Foundation for Comparative Planetology

• Record of History of Inner Solar System– Initial Guide to Early History of Earth and Mars– Conditions for the Initiation of Life

• Delineation of Lunar Resource Potential• Delineation of Future Lunar Scientific Potential

REMARKABLE!

•Sufficient Base of Technology

–WWII / Cold War / Eisenhower Decisions

•Reservoir of Young Engineers and Skilled Workers

–1957 “Sputnik” Generation

•Pervasive Environment of National Unease

–Campaign of 1960

•Catalytic Event That Brings Focus to Effort

–Gagarin’s Flight

•Articulate, Trusted and Persuasive President

–John F. Kennedy

•Tough, Competent and Disciplined Management

–Post-Apollo 204 Fire

APOLLO’S KEYS TO SUCCESSAPOLLO’S KEYS TO SUCCESS

Deep Space Operations Still Require These Keys!NASA PHOTO

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

What Was the Largest Mistake After Apollo?

•The Development Cost of Apollo Created Was Not Amortized•Continued Use of the Saturn-Apollo Capabilities Would Have Provided:

•Periodic Access to the Moon•Capability for Asteroid or Comet Diversion•Skylab-style Station for Characterization of Human Adaptation to Micro-gravity•Other Micro-gravity applications?

•Enhancement of the Saturn-Apollo Capabilities Would Have Provided:

•Low Cost Access to Lunar Resources•Basis for Large Scale Robotic and Human Exploration of Mars

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Why Return to the Moon?• Satisfy basic human instincts for exploration

– Freedom, betterment, curiosity– New homelands, trade, and knowledge

• Continue at least 40,000 years of exploration’s benefits to modern humans– New homes, livelihoods, know-how, resources– Supported by both “government” and private initiatives

• Perpetuate exploration and settlement of space– Comparable to past migrations into our global habitat– Opportunity for the expansion of free institutions

Challenges for Earthlings:Natural Disaster Prediction

Fresh and Clean Water Supply

Climate Change Mitigation

Farm Land Preservation

Waste Disposal

Energy Supply

THE PROBLEMTHE PROBLEMFOR ALL OF USFOR ALL OF US

• ≈10-12 Billion Earthlings by 2050

• >X10 Increase in Energy Demand for the World to Reach Today’s U.S. Level

– ~X2 to Stay Even With 2006 Demand

– ~X8 or More to Meet Aspirations and Slow Population Growth

– X? To Technologically Mitigate Effects of Climate Change

FOSSIL FUELS?

FISSION?

SOLAR?

HYDROGEN?

PORTFOLIO?FUSION?

A Role For Space?

•YES!

NASA PHOTO

Lunar Helium-3 Fusion Power

QuickTime™ and a

Photo CD Decompressor

are needed to use this picture

Steady State D-3He Fusion

5 cm

1 milli-watt or 108 protons / sec

University of Wisconsin-Madison

Undisturbed Grade For Apollo 11 Helium-3 >20 ppb

1000 MWe Fusion Power Plant (D-3He) Requires ~100kg Helium-3/year

100 Kg Helium-3 Requires Mining 2km2 to Depth of 3m and Processing the <100 µm Fraction (~50 Wt.%)

100 Kg Helium-3 Has Steam Coal Equivalent Value of $140 Million (Coal @$2.50/million Btu)

LUNAR REGOLITHLUNAR REGOLITH

NASA PHOTO

QuickTime™ and a

Photo CD Decompressor

are needed to use this picture

•Outer Space Treaty of 1967–Only Truly Operative Space Treaty Relative to Resources–Implementation of Moon Agreement would be Self-defeating

•1967 Treaty Permissive Relative to Access to Space Resources

–Private, Government, Multilateral or International Initiative Equally Permissible–Private Entity Must Be Sponsored (Licensed) by Party to Treaty

•Multilateral Private Property Regime Desirable

SPACE LAWSPACE LAW

Technical And Financial Envelope For Technical And Financial Envelope For Private Lunar InitiativePrivate Lunar Initiative

• Demonstration of Commercial Viability of Helium-3 Fusion (“Fly-off” Between 4-5 Approaches)– ~US$5 Billion Investment for Demonstration Plant

• Re-creation of a Saturn V Class of Heavy Lift Boosters with payload costs <US$3000/kg to the Moon– ~US$5 Billion Investment [Ares 1-5 Development]

• Lunar Settlement’s Capability to Produce 100kg/yr Helium-3 (Miner-Processors, Infrastructure, and “The Company Town”.)– ~US$2.5 Billion Investment (Lunar Outpost Devel.)

• Financially Viable at >US$2.50/million Btu for Steam Coal ($140 Million/100kg Helium-3) [$2.5-5 Billion Reserve - 17-33%]

NASA PHOTOUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison Photo

MANAGEMENT CONTROL DIAGRAM:MANAGEMENT CONTROL DIAGRAM:LARGE HUMAN ENTERPRISESLARGE HUMAN ENTERPRISES

PRIVATE

NATIONAL INTERNATIONAL

o TRANS-ALASKA PIPELINE o SATCOM COMPANIES o NACA AERONAUTICS

o EAST INDIA CO.o HUDSON BAY CO.

o TRANSCONTINENTAL RAILROADS

MIRCORP

o ORIGINAL COMSAT CORP.

o UNITED SPACE ALLIANCE(SPACE SHUTTLE)

“SANTA MARIA” INC.INTERSTATEHIGHWAYSNUCLEAR NAVYNON-U.S ACTIVITES

EUROTUNNEL

INTERNATIONALSPACE STATION

X X X

INTERLUNE* INMARSAT* INTELSAT*

?

?X

o INTERLUNE-INTERMARS, INC. o SPACE DEVELOPMENT CORP. o LUNA CORP., ETC.

LAW OF THESEA REGIME

MOON AGM’T

BLUE = SPACE ENTERPRISE

GREEN = COMPARABLE MODERN FINANCIAL CHALLENGE

ITALICS = PROPOSED OR NOT YET STABLE SPACE ENTERPRISES

* = PROPORTIONATE USE VOTE

PRIVATE+ GOV’T R&D

APOLLO SKYLAB

ANTARCTIC REGIME

ITER

If A Lunar Helium-3 InitiativeBegan In 2007 With Assured Funding,

The First Human Mission To MarsCould Be Launched By 2020,

Largely Using Technology Paid For ByThe Helium-3 Initiative.

(Including a Clean, Fusion “Orion”)

In The Meantime, Earth Would Have Another Alternative Source

Of Environmentally Acceptable Electrical PowerQuickTime™ and a

Photo CD Decompressor

are needed to use this picture

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

“The Psychological, Technological and Survival Bonds Holding

Humans to the Earth Have Been Broken. This New Evolutionary

Potential in the Universe Now Permits Us to Live on the Moon

and Mars. Generations Alive Today Can Determine If

Humankind Will Take Advantage of

This New Status. -- Will We Begin

the Settlement of the Solar System

and Provide for a New Birth

of Freedom Beyond

the Earth?”

APOLLO BENT OUR EVOLUTIONARY PATH INTO THE FUTURE.

NASA PHOTO

NASA PHOTO

Let Us Return the Moon and find out!!!!

Amazon link:

ShamelessPlug

Back-up Slides

++++Helium-4Helium-4NeutronNeutronTritiumTritium

17.6 MeV17.6 MeV

DeuteriumDeuterium

Fusion Fuel CyclesFIRST GENERATION FUELS

SECOND GENERATION FUELS

THIRD GENERATION FUEL

© HARRISON H. SCHMITTUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON

++DeuteriumDeuterium DeuteriumDeuterium

NeutronNeutron Helium-3Helium-3++++HydrogenHydrogen TritiumTritium

4.04.0

3.33.350%50%

50%50%+

++++Helium-4Helium-4DeuteriumDeuterium HydrogenHydrogenHelium-3Helium-3

18.418.4+

++ ++++Helium-4Helium-4HydrogenHydrogen HydrogenHydrogenHelium-3Helium-3Helium-3Helium-3

12.912.9++

PROTONS!!

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Fission DT DD D3He 3He-3He

*burn half of T bred*burn half of T bred

Rel. n/MeV

Released in

FuelFuel

Rel. n/kWh Released in

The Number of Neutrons Generated by Fusion Fuels Varies Depending on the Fuel Cycle

FusionFusion

11

5

11

0.04–0.2 0

7.5*

5

0.04–0.2 0

11

7.5*

DT DD D3He 3He/3He

Fusion GenerationFission 1st 2nd 3rd

Hardest Easiest

Major Problem Minor Problem

Major Societal and Technical Concerns ofNuclear Energy Options

none

none

none

Proliferation

Nuclear Waste

Radiological Hazard

Physics/Eng. Req't.

© HARRISON H. SCHMITTUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON

SPACE BIOMEDICAL ISSUESIN MICRO-GRAVITY

• MAJOR KNOWN PROBLEMS– MUSCLE ATROPHY

• HEART• SUPPORT

– BONE AND OTOLITH DE-MINERALIZATION

– RATE OF RE-ADAPTATION TO GRAVITY ENVIRONMENT

– IMMUNE SYSTEM COMPROMISE (?)

– RADIATION PROTECTION

– EDL PERFORMANCE

• COUNTER-MEASURE OPTIONS– HEAVY, ANAROBIC EXERCISE– CENTRIFUGAL FORCE– DRUG THERAPY– EXERCISE– CENTRIFUGAL FORCE– DRUG THERAPY– EXERCISE IN GRAVITY

ALL OF THE ABOVE

IN-TRANSIT AND IN ORBIT“WATER” SURROUNDED STORM CELLAR

ON-SURFACE“REGOLITH” COVER FOR ZENITH