Expanding Model Coverage in Asia: 2014 and...
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Expanding Model Coverage in Asia: 2014 and Beyond Dr Christine Ziehmann Vice President, Model Product Management
Transcript of Expanding Model Coverage in Asia: 2014 and...
Expanding Model Coverage in Asia: 2014 and Beyond Dr Christine Ziehmann Vice President, Model Product Management
COMMITMENT TO MODEL DEVELOPMENT
Client partnerships
Innovation New science
Global expansion
Library of solutions
RMS MODELS
Transparency
Confidential ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
PERILS WITH INADEQUATE OR NOT ENOUGH MODELING SOLUTIONS IN ASIA
58%
16%
10%
8% 4% 2% 2% Inland flood
Tsunami
Typhoon
Earthquake
Storm surge
Drought
Volcano
Confidential ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
• New Exposure Datasets
• Flood
• Tsunami
• Typhoon
• Earthquake
• Roadmap Timeline
NEW & UPDATED DATA PRODUCTS AND MODELS
EXPOSURE
DATASETS
Confidential ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
UNDERSTANDING EXPOSURE BEGINS WITH RELIABLE INSIGHTS
INDUSTRIAL CLUSTERS CATALOG ECONOMIC EXPOSURE DATABASE
Platform independent
SQL EDM and MS Access ESRI shapefile format GIS polygons
Peril independent
HIGH-RESOLUTION INDUSTRY EXPOSURE DATABASES IN KEY COUNTRIES PROVIDE LOCATION LEVEL DETAIL
Floor Area
Example: High resolution exposure in
Japan
Occupancy
No. Stories
New Zealand Japan North
America Europe
Taiwan
Japan
New Zealand
Indonesia
Vietnam Thailand
South Korea
Malaysia
Singapore
Hong Kong
Philippines
EXPANDING EXPOSURE COVERAGE IN APAC
China
Developing
Current
Availability
IED
EED ICC
IED
ENHANCING AND EXPANDING EXPOSURE COVERAGE ACROSS THE GLOBE
EED and ICC Asia Pacific
IED and EED Japan
IED Europe
IED and EED New Zealand
IED U.S.A Canada Mexico
Developing
Current
Availability
FLOOD INLAND
Confidential ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
0.01-0.20
0.2-0.50 0.5-1.00 1-1.50 1.5-2.00 2.0-2.50 2.5-3.00 3.0-3.50 3.5-4.00 4.0-4.50 4.5-5.00 5.0-5.50 >5.50
RMS APPROACH TO FLOOD MODELING PROVIDES USERS A COMPREHENSIVE AND COMPLETE VIEW OF RISK
Confidential ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
Depth Range (m)
SOUTH KOREA RETURN PERIOD FLOOD MAPS AND SCENARIOS AVAILABLE AT 30M RESOLUTION
0.01-0.20
0.2-0.50 0.5-1.00 1-1.50 1.5-2.00 2.0-2.50 2.5-3.00 3.0-3.50 3.5-4.00 4.0-4.50 4.5-5.00 5.0-5.50 >5.50
China
Developing
Current
Availability
South Korea
Japan
EXPANDING FLOOD COVERAGE IN APAC
Taiwan
TBD
Indonesia
Thailand
Typhoon driven flood
Typhoon driven flood
U.S.A South Korea Japan
Europe
Developing
Current
Availability
FLOOD: ACROSS THE GLOBE
Taiwan,
TSUNAMI
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TSUNAMI SCENARIO COVERAGE ACROSS THE GLOBE
• Full life-cycle • Near- and far-field
impacts • Manage
accumulations • Flag high-risk
locations when underwriting
• Deterministic modeling - apply loss ratios to exposure to estimate potential losses to scenarios
TYPHOON
Confidential ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
NEW JAPAN TYPHOON MODEL
Pioneering Science
Industry partners HD
Innovation
Taiwan
China
Developing
Current
Availability
South Korea
Vietnam
ASIA TYPHOON MODELS
Philippines
South East Asia
Japan
Basin-wide event set captures correlation of typhoon risk
3 Peril model for complete view of risk
Wind Inland Flood
Coastal Flood
Model multi country portfolios more realistically
Rammasun (2014)
Fitow (2013)
Haiyan (2013)
Developing
Current
Availability
WIND: ACROSS THE GLOBE
V.15 U.S.A Canada Mexico
South East Asia
Japan
V.15 Europe
EARTHQUAKE
• High resolution template for future HD earthquake models
NEW ZEALAND EARTHQUAKE
LIQUEFACTION
FIRE FOLLOWING PROBABILISTIC TSUNAMI
BUSINESS INTERRUPTION
China
Developing
Current
Availability
Japan
Australia India
New Zealand Philippines
Vietnam Thailand
Malaysia
EXPANDING EARTHQUAKE COVERAGE IN APAC
Indonesia
U.S.A Canada Mexico
South East Asia
Japan
New Zealand
Developing
Current
Availability
EARTHQUAKE: ACROSS THE GLOBE
Exposure Data for Asia
South Korea hazard maps
Global Tsunami Scenario Catalog
Version 15
North Atlantic Hurricane update
Europe Windstorm update
HD Japan Typhoon (wind + flood)
HD Europe Flood
HD NZ EQ
HD North America Earthquake
HD US Flood
HD SE Asia EQ
HD Asia Typhoon
HD Terrorism
MODEL ROADMAP – TARGET RELEASE TIMINGS
to be scheduled:
Asia flood maps
Japan Earthquake
Europe hail, SCS, surge
HD North Atlantic HU
Timings subject to change: uncertainty is greatest further into the future
Taiwan flood maps
U.S. inland and coastal flood maps
Europe-wide flood maps
Terrorism models event set update
