Examine the Real Housing Problems in Hong Kong

認清香港住房問題真相

1

6/12/2015 CUHK

Edward Yiu 姚松炎

Associate Director, IOFC 未來城市研究所副所長

Associate Professor, CUHK 中文大學副教授

2

即使要發展東北，應該先選那項？

官地高球場(170公頃) 每位高球會會員每打一次高球，納稅人平均資助二百萬元

棕地貨櫃場(106公頃) 不停破壞環境和生態，只因政府輸了官司

老人院舍 難得空氣與環境俱佳，安享晚年之地。

農地 (60公頃) 供應本地生鮮蔬菜，全港僅餘724公頃菜田。

Research Questions 研究問題

• 1. “Land is scarce”is true or not? Why housing is unaffordable, people have to live in sub-divided flats, or wait for a public rental housing unit for a decade? "地少人多" 是真實還是假象？到底那麼多人上不到公屋，住劏房，捱貴樓的真正原因是什麼？

• 2. What are the political and economic roles of“Land Reserve”? "土地儲備" 對政府和財團來說，有什麼政治經濟意義？

3

4

Housing Issues in HK 香港房屋問題

• Unaffordable Housing (難負擔); • Subdivided Flats (劏房); • Dilapidated Buildings (失修); and • Walled City (牆城).

5

The Most Expensive Apartment in the World? 世界最貴住宅單位

• The Opus

• Frank Gehry-designed;

• 6,683 square feet;

• HK$455 million in 2012;

• i.e. HK$68,000 psf. (US$8,700 psf)

6

The Second Most Expensive Luxury Housing in the World 全球第二貴豪宅

Housing Price to Income Ratio

(樓價與收入比):

HK 2013 = 13.5, HK 2014 = 14.9

Unaffordable Housing 樓價難以負擔

8

Income Cannot Catch Price 收入追不上樓價

• From 2010 to 2013 – Inflation rate increased 通脹升20%; – Housing Rent increased 租金升40%; – Housing Price increased 樓價升 80%.

Public Housing 公營房屋

9

• 47% households (多)

• High rise, high density (密);

• Standard design, small size (細);

• Far from city centre (遠).

• 6,000 blocks (20%) of old building built before 1964 (>50-year old, the design life span of concrete structures)

Private Housing 私樓 • 6,000 幢(20%) 舊樓建於1964年前

• (Great) Walled City 牆城

• >170,000 households (7%) live in sub-divided flats.

• >170,000 戶 (7%) 住在劏房

Country/ city

國/ 市

Ave. Living Area (sf)

平均單位面積 (呎)

Per Person (sf)

人均居住面積(呎)

US (美國) 2,476 ~800

Taiwan (台灣) 1,119 ~370

SIN (新加坡) 1,044 323

Tokyo (日本) 667 ~220

Shanghai (上海) 560 194

HK (香港) 452 161

Ave per person living area of HK = 1/5 of US

High Urban Density 市區密度 (26,000 p/sq km) – rank the 3rd 全球第三; But Medium Total Density 整體密度(~6000p/sq km)

Land Use Area HK 香港土地用途2000 Use Color

R (住)

I/C (工商)

G (綠)

AGR (農)

GIC (政)

Reservoir (塘)

Sea (海)

http://www.pland.gov.hk/pland_en/p_study/comp_s/lup/index_e.htm

Land Use Distribution HK 2012 香港土地用途分佈2012

Use (用途) %

R (住) 6.9%

I/C (工商) 2.7%

G (綠) 66.6%

AGR (農) 6.1%

GIC/O (政/空)

4.5%

http://www.pland.gov.hk/pland_en/info_serv/statistic/landu.html

Year

年

Private Housing

私樓數量

Subsidized Housing

資助房數量

Public Rental

Housing

公屋數量

Total

總數量

Housing Stock –

Households 樓量- 家庭數

1983 542,000 36,000 533,000 1,111,000 -239,000

1993 833,000 186,000 677,000 1,696,000 -10,000

2003 1,258,000 395,000 679,000 2,332,000 251,000

2013 1,458,000 391,000 766,000 2,616,000 195,200

Not Due to Insufficient Supply 不是房屋供應不足

Why vacancy rate can be so low (4%)? 何解空置率這麼低 (4%)?

Government Vacant Land 空置官地

Zoning

用途

Land Area (ha)

總面積 (公頃)

Government Vacant Land (ha) 空置官地

(公頃)

%

Residential 9,759.5 2,153.7 22%

Commercial 803.1 24.6 3%

Industrial 1,478.9 298.3 20%

GIC 3,676.7 777.7 21%

Recreation 2,587.4 742.9 29%

Total 58,989.5 3,997.2 7%

http://blog.yahoo.com/ecyyiuu/articles/624292/index

Other Land Sources其他土地來源

Zoning

用途

Land Area (ha)

總面積 (公頃)

Population

人口

Processing 正實施 309 128,700

Railway land 鐵路地 >500 500,000

Industrial & Quarry 工礦 180 200,000

Brownfield … 棕地 800 800,000

Undergr & U 地底及未劃 1,000 Non-R

Total 合共 5,000 4,000,000

http://ecyy.weebly.com/uploads/1/2/9/3/12935669/medium_term_land_supply_hk_2013a.pdf

20

The End 完

comments are welcome. Enquiries to:

ecyyiu@cuhk.edu.hk