Examine the Real Housing Problems in Hong Kong

認清香港住房問題真相

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罷課不罷學講堂 24/9/2014 (11 – 12)

Edward Yiu 姚松炎

Associate Director, IOFC 未來城市研究所副所長

Associate Professor, CUHK 中文大學副教授

Research Questions 研究問題

• 1. “Land is scarce” is true or not? Why housing is unaffordable, people have to live in sub-divided flats, or wait for a public rental housing unit for a decade? "地少人多" 是真實還是假象？到底那麼多人上不到公屋，住劏房，捱貴樓的真正原因是什麼？

• 2. What are the political and economic roles of “Land Reserve”? "土地儲備" 對政府和財團來說，有什麼政治經濟意義？

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Housing Issues in HK 香港房屋問題

• Unaffordable Housing (難負擔); • Subdivided Flats (劏房); • Dilapidated Buildings (失修); and • Walled City (牆城).

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The Most Expensive Apartment in the World? 世界最貴住宅單位

• The Opus

• Frank Gehry-designed;

• 6,683 square feet;

• HK$455 million in 2012;

• i.e. HK$68,000 psf. (US$8,700 psf)

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The Second Most Expensive Luxury Housing in the World 全球第二貴豪宅

Housing Price to Income Ratio

(樓價與收入比):

HK 2013 = 13.5, HK 2014 = 14.9

Unaffordable Housing 樓價難以負擔

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Income Cannot Catch Price 收入追不上樓價

• From 2010 to 2013 – Inflation rate increased 通脹升20%; – Housing Rent increased 租金升40%; – Housing Price increased 樓價升 80%.

Public Housing 公營房屋

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• 47% households (多)

• High rise, high density (密);

• Standard design, small size (細);

• Far from city centre (遠).

• 6,000 blocks (20%) of old building built before 1964 (>50-year old, the design life span of concrete structures)

Private Housing 私樓 • 6,000 幢(20%) 舊樓建於1964年前

• (Great) Walled City 牆城

• >170,000 persons (2.4%) live in sub-divided flats.

• >170,000 人 (2.4%) 住在劏房

Country/ city

國/ 市

Ave. Living Area (sf)

平均單位面積 (呎)

Per Person (sf)

人均居住面積(呎)

US (美國) 2,476 ~800

Taiwan (台灣) 1,119 ~370

SIN (新加坡) 1,044 323

Tokyo (日本) 667 ~220

Shanghai (上海) 560 194

HK (香港) 452 161

Ave per person living area of HK = 1/5 of US

人均居住面積 = 美國的1/5

High Urban Density 市區密度高 (26,000 p/sq km); But Medium Total Density 整體密度中等(~6000p/sq km)

Different Distributions 不同分佈

14 http://blogs.casa.ucl.ac.uk/2012/12/

Density v. Liveability 密度對宜居度

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Land Use Area HK 香港土地用途2000 Use Color

R (住)

I/C (工商)

G (綠)

AGR (農)

GIC (政)

Reservoir (塘)

Sea (海)

http://www.pland.gov.hk/pland_en/p_study/comp_s/lup/index_e.htm

Land Use Distribution HK 2012 香港土地用途分佈2012

Use (用途) %

R (住) 6.9%

I/C (工商) 2.7%

G (綠) 66.6%

AGR (農) 6.1%

GIC/O (政/空)

4.5%

http://www.pland.gov.hk/pland_en/info_serv/statistic/landu.html

•Money supply is fiat 銀根供應無限

•Land supply is monopolized 土地供應壟斷

•Housing supply is oligopolized 房屋供應壟斷

Why Unaffordable? 何解樓價不能負擔?

• 負實質利率

• 供應不足

• 官商旋轉門

Negative Real Interest Rate 負實質利率

• Investment Demand 投資需求

1996 2001 2006 2011

HIBOR % 5.48 3.44 4.21 0.27

CPIA yoy % 6.31 -1.60 2.03 5.51

RIR -0.83 5.04 2.18 -5.24

HPI (yr end) 134.5 73.8 93.8 181.1

RIR v. HPI yoy of HK

RIR v. HPI yoy of HK

Yiu, C.Y. (2010) Negative real interest rate and housing bubble implosion – an

empirical study in Hong Kong, 2010 JFMPC 14(3), 257-270

Implications of Neg. RIR 負實質利率含意

• Saving in cash is a net loss 儲現金淨蝕;

• Borrowing to invest in housing is costless 借貸無成本;

• Monthly mortgage payment < Monthly rent 每月按揭供款比每月租金還要低;

• The risk of loss is capped by government bailout 風險由政府承擔;

• Who can borrow more determines who can earn more 誰能借得多，誰贏;

• If US$ drops, foreign investors can earn both capital gain and currency gain, by buying HK housing units (港)美匯低，外來投資者可從房產雙收- 匯率得益、樓價獲利.

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An Unsustainable Game of Housing Mortgage 一場按揭遊戲的終結

• 付上一生的積蓄，賺取下一代的血汗。

Decade 年代 Loan-to-Value Ratio 按揭最

高成數

Mortgage Period 最長還

款期

1970s 90% 10 yrs

1980s 80% 15 yrs

1990s 70% 20 yrs

2000s 60% 25 yrs

2010s 50% 30 yrs

2030s 30%? 40 yrs?

Year 年度 Land 土地(for all uses各種用途)

Private Housing Units to be built

可建私樓單位

Bef 1997 < 50 ha Ave. 26,000

2011/12 36.8 ha 9,450

2012/13 30.2 ha 10,150

2013/14 25.8 ha 8,750

Target - 20,000

Restrictive Land Supply 限制土地供應

See Peng, R. and Wheaton, W.C. (1994) Effects of Restrictive Land Supply

on Housing in Hong Kong: An Econometric Analysis, JHR 5(2), 263-291

http://content.knowledgeplex.org/kp2/img/cache/kp/2438.pdf

Year 年度 PRH Completion公屋落成量 (單位)

SSF Completion 資助房屋落成量(單位)

2012-13 13,114 0

2013-14 15,031 0

Queue 輪候家庭

118,000 ?

2014-15* 12,700 0

2015-16* 20,400 0

2016-17* 18,700 2,100

Restrictive PRH Supply 限制公屋供應

http://ecyyiu.wordpress.com/2014/01/03/housing-supply-forecasts-2014-2017/

Improvement Methods 改善房屋問題的解決辦法

1. 減少人口 2. 向外買地 3. 加高密度 (建得更高，或住得更細) 4. 向內加地 (填海、改劃綠化地和農地) 5. 地盡其用 (空置官地、軍地、重建、改劃工

廈地、改劃棕地、改劃U地) 6. 實質利率上升

• 民意選5 • 政府選3,4 (增加土儲)

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Year

年

Private Housing

私樓數量

Subsidized Housing

資助房數量

Public Rental

Housing

公屋數量

Total

總數量

Housing Stock –

Households 樓量- 家庭數

1983 542,000 36,000 533,000 1,111,000 -239,000

1993 833,000 186,000 677,000 1,696,000 -10,000

2003 1,258,000 395,000 679,000 2,332,000 251,000

2013 1,458,000 391,000 766,000 2,616,000 195,200

Not Due to Insufficient Supply 不是房屋供應不足

Government Vacant Land 空置官地

Zoning

用途

Land Area (ha)

總面積 (公頃)

Government Vacant Land (ha) 空置官地

(公頃)

%

Residential 住宅 9,759.5 2,153.7 22%

Commercial 商業 803.1 24.6 3%

Industrial 工業 1,478.9 298.3 20%

GIC 政府設施 3,676.7 777.7 21%

Recreation 康樂 2,587.4 742.9 29%

Total 合共 58,989.5 3,997.2 7%

http://blog.yahoo.com/ecyyiuu/articles/624292/index

Other Land Sources其他土地來源

Zoning

用途

Land Area (ha)

總面積 (公頃)

Acc. Population

可容納人口

Processing 待平整/剛平整地 309 128,700

Railway land 鐵路地 >500 500,000

Industrial & Quarry 工礦地 180 200,000

Brownfield 棕地 800 800,000

Undergr & U 地底及未劃地 1,000 NA

Total 合共 2,800 1,600,000

http://ecyy.weebly.com/uploads/1/2/9/3/12935669/medium_term_land_supply_hk_2013a.pdf

Other Land Sources 2其他土地來源2

Zoning

用途

Land Area (ha)

總面積 (公頃)

Acc. Population

可容納人口

Military 軍事用地 2,750 2,750,000

Club (incl. golf courts)會所用地 (包括高球場)

425.7 (170) 425,700

CDA 綜合發展區 720 720,000

Total 合共 2,800 3,470,000

http://ecyy.weebly.com/uploads/1/2/9/3/12935669/medium_term_land_supply_hk_2013a.pdf

• 用地四大原則：官地先用、棕土先行、以人為本、永續為念。

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Why Land Reserve? 土儲目的 • 土儲->賣地->基建->製造經濟假增長->公私合營

铁公基

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Revolving Door 旋轉門

Land Sale 賣地 Infrastructure 基建 PPP 公私合營

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HK GDP Growth by Econ. Activity 香港經濟增長活動分類

Econ. Activity 經濟活動 2012 2013 Q1-Q3

Construction 建築 8.3% 3.1

Services 服務 1.8% 3.0

Manufacturing 生產 -0.8% -0.1

Agriculture 農業 ? ?

yoy GDP 經濟增長率 1.5% 2.9%

Services 服務 2012 2013 Q1-Q3

Real Estate 房地產 3.9% -4.2% (3D measures)

Wholesale and retail 批發零售 7.3% 10.5%

Postal and courier 郵遞 6.4% 14.1%

http://www.hkeconomy.gov.hk/en/pdf/er_13q4.pdf

Public Infrastructure Exp. 基建開支

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116% up

31% up

Public Infrastructure Exp. 基建開支上升

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Year Capital Fund Exp

(HK$b) yoy

Total Govt Exp.

(HK$b) %

2005/06 29.9 197.8 15%

2006/07 27.9 -6.7% 195.6 14%

2007/08 23.4 -16.1% 207.8 11%

2008/09 50.6 116.2% 260.8 19%

2009/10 51.4 1.6% 237.3 22%

2010/11 53.7 4.5% 242.7 22%

2011/12 61.2 14.0% 299.5 20%

2012/13 67.3 10.0% 306.1 22%

2013/14 88.3 31.2% 315.7 28%

Total HK$453.7b HK$2,263.3b 20%

To boost economy

More Public Infrastructure Exp. In Future 未來基建

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Work In Progress

Projects

Cost Forecasts

(HK$b)

廣深港高鐵

GZH Railway 66.9

港珠澳大橋

HZM Bridge 55.4

屯門西繞道及屯門至赤鱲角連接路

Highway

44.8

蓮塘口岸

Border 24.4

Total HK$191.5b

Planning Projects Cost Forecasts

(HK$b)

新界東北

NENT NDA 120

港深西部快速軌道

HSW Railway 90

機場第三條跑道

3rd Runway 150

中部水域人工島

CW Artificial Island 150

Total HK$510b

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Construction and Infrastructure Led Growth? 建築和基建帶動增長?

• Diminishing marginal return 邊際回報遞減; – i.e. less and less efficient;

• Overcapacity and ghost cities 產能過剩及鬼城; – Waste of resources, environmental

damage; • Unsustainable growth model 非可持續增長模式; – Inputs > Outputs;

• Biased wealth distribution 財富分配不均; – Government officials, Bankers,

Developers, Contractors, …

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http://www.economist.com/news/internat

ional/21599041-countries-where-

politically-connected-businessmen-are-

most-likely-prosper-planet

The Most Crony City 最裙帶城市

Most Unequal Asia City 最貧富懸殊亞洲城市

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City / Country Rank Gini

Hong Kong Asia Highest 0.537

Singapore 0.478

Norway Global Lowest 0.256

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/how-govt-could-tackle-singapore%E2%80%99s-income-gap-problem--panel-095938746.html

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Financial Engineering on Development 發展項目金融工程學

• Private Public Partnership (PPP), such as BOT, BOOT, Sale and Leaseback, … (公私合營)

• Concessions (發水) • Land Premium Waiver (地價減免) • Residual Development Intensity

(剩餘發展規模)

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PPP 公私合營

Project Outcome 結果: • The site was gifted to TDC

by the Govt in 1984 政府於1984年送出土地予貿發局.

• TDC have a world class

CEC at no capital cost 香港貿發局免費獲得會展;

• Developer took 2 world

class hotels, an office tower

and a serviced apartment

tower at no land cost 發展商免地價獲得兩幢酒店、一幢寫字樓大廈及一幢服務式住宅;

Ma Wan Park 馬灣公園

No tender 沒有投標

Develop 5,000 residential units, GFA = 3.7 million s.f. 可發展五千伙住宅，樓面面積達三百七十萬平方呎

Conditions 條件:

Provide a public theme park of 2 million s.f. 興建主題公園二百萬呎

Developer has to invest $1 billion in the park 投資十億興建公園

Developer bears the costs of relocation of villagers 負責補償搬遷村民

Cyberport (or Bel Air?) 數碼港

No tender 沒有投標

The Government‘s equity contribution will be based on the land value assessed

at the time of grant of the development right 政府與財團合資，政府出地;

Developer‘s capital contribution is estimated at $7 billion. 財團出資70億

Government Share of the Profit 政府分紅

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Land Premium Case – Yan On Hospital 仁安醫院補地價案

• Only 54% of the site was used to build a hospital; 醫院用地只發展54%

• The remaining 46% of the site was rezoned to build private residential development; 餘下46%土地申請轉住宅用途

• Land premium $0.61b in 2004; 2004年補地價6.1億 • Hill Paramount was sold in 2010 with total considerations

of $3.5b; 項目出售35億 • i.e. profit > $1.6b. 利潤超過16億 • Profit rate > 100% 利潤率超過1倍

Audit Commissioner Report http://www.aud.gov.hk/pdf_e/e59ch04.pdf (26 Oct 2012):

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6 Types of Concessions 六項發水

1. Disregarded GFA (Carpark and loading/unloading areas excluding PTT

2. Disregarded GFA other than carpark and L/UL areas (e.g. plant rooms and similar services) 3. Disregarded GFA in hotel under B(P)R 23A(3) 4. Exempted GFA of green features under JPN 1,2

5. Exempted GFA of amenity features and other exempted areas 6. Bonus GFA

7. Unclassified Concessions

Trend of Concessions 發水趨勢

• Typical concessions include carparking space, balconies, working platforms, bay windows, clubhouses, utility, recreational facilities, amenties, …

Cohorts Balcony Workin

g

Platfor

m

Externa

l Wall

Bay

Window

Others

(Clubho

use, …)

GFA SFA UR (%)

1972 36 0 45 0 0 850 793 93%

1986 0 0 75 16 907 817 90%

1993 0 0 61 52 48 945 732 77%

2010 22 16 132 34 7 1,030 785 76%

http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/news/art/20101016/14559693

Concessions – Harbour City case 海運發水案

• Wharf Properties Ltd and Ano v. Eric Cumine Associates, Architects Engineers & Surveyors and Others Privy Council Appeal No. 45 of 1989, 1991 WL 1124849 (Privy Council), [1991] 2 HKLR 6, [1991] HKLY 747; [1991] 52 BLR 8, [1991] 2 HKLR 154, CACV000052/1988, CL 48/1985, and HCA 13431H/1983;

Omission to

claim

Non-

accountable

gfa (sm)

Hotel gfa

concessions

(sm)

Dedication

gfa bonus

(sm)

Harbour City 6,029 5,722

Ocean Centre 1,839

Marco Polo

Hotel

1,184

Prince Hotel 1,480

Sub-total 6,029 2,664 7,561

Total 16,254

Change of site classification 改變地盤分類來發水

• Widening of street 改街闊:

– Siu Sai Wan project was changed from Class A (auction) to Class C; 小西灣賣地為甲類，售後批丙類土地

– The GFA of the site increased from 226,918 sm by 41,985 sm to 268,903 sm., which the AC estimated to be valued at $1,018 million. 樓面面積增加約四萬二千平方米，增值十億

Government Land, Not People’s Land 土地屬於政府，不屬於人民 (殖民地)

殖民 民主

擁有土地 土地歸民

賣地收益、不受監管 依賴稅收、借貸

壟斷權力 自我完善

維持群帶，利益輸送 施政影響稅收、評級

只須土儲，不理民意 必須聽取民意

貧富懸殊，貧無立足之地

累進稅制，不以土地決定貧富

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The End 完

comments are welcome. Enquiries to:

ecyyiu@cuhk.edu.hk