Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning...
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![Page 1: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes
Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago
Eric LenningSOO - NWS Chicago
![Page 2: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Many Challenges and Questions
This takes a lot of time and energy….….and we have no ideahow well we are doing.
MAFORS US“R”
![Page 3: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Many Challenges and Questions
Lots of effortto create/collaborate grids
and edit text products.
![Page 5: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Many Challenges and Questions
What observationsare representative?
![Page 6: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Many Challenges and Questions
What does our forecast represent?GLF/NSH (zones?) vs MAFOR vs
Point-Click vs Graphics
?
![Page 7: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Many Challenges and Questions
How do customersinterpret forecasts?
![Page 8: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Many Challenges and Questions
What do customersactually need?
(Rags vs Tugs vs Freighters)
![Page 9: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Many Challenges and Questions
Waves!Significant vsMaximum vsOccasional
![Page 10: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Many Challenges and Questions
Winds:Surface vs 10m vs 30m
Sustained vs GustsStability Issues
![Page 11: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Where do we start?• Success in the aviation program• Where are we at now?• Communication is key!• Start with the customer
"Your most unhappy customersare your greatest source of learning." - Bill Gates
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Communicate
Investigate/Brainstorm/ Develop
User/Forecaster Training
Evaluate
![Page 13: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Goals for Outreach Initiative• Better understand needs of mariners• Evaluate current services• Better understand the marine environment• Better leverage current technological capabilities• Funnel insights into
product and serviceevolution/improvement
![Page 14: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Valuable Decision Tool
Properly Interpreted
RepresentativeEffectively
Communicated
![Page 15: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
How do we do this?
• Communication! • Enlist the resources of the 5 open lake offices
(Chicago, Marquette, Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo)• Identify common challenges/concerns, top priorities• Develop a common approach to outreach• Conduct visits with vessels in nearby ports• Identify improvements and work with
regional/national HQ to implement
• Feedback steers our course
![Page 16: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Key Benefits of Visits• Establish how current forecast services are
interpreted and understood• Raise awareness of the marine environment• Gain better understanding of how obs are taken• A two-way training opportunity• Build relationships
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![Page 18: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Results thus far…
• 8 Freighters and Tug/Barges • 1 USCG Icebreaker• 3 Charter boats (who frequent the open waters)
![Page 19: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Early Findings• “Occasional” Waves: mixed reviews• 10 and 30 m winds: mixed reviews• Forecast Discussions: not widely known about but
very enthusiastic response
• Surface weather maps are important
• Desire for more ice forecast information
• Desire for a more effective “one-stop” for all weather information
• Provide periodic brief weather related training materials, service reminders, etc, via e-mail??
![Page 20: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
The Plan
• Identify exactly what we wish to include in our products, and how it will be communicated.
• Make sure every forecaster in every marine office is creating the very same products.
• Agree on objective methods for tracking the accuracy of these forecast products.
![Page 21: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
The Plan
• Track effectiveness of these products, likely through outreach efforts.
• Evaluate efficiency of the product creation process vs product accuracy/effectiveness.
• Utilize verification statistics and user feedback to evolve these products and the process through which they are created.
![Page 22: Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649cae5503460f949714b5/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Thank You!Questions/Comments?