Evolution of the Grid in MISO Region - UMN CCAPS · 2017-11-01 · MISO’s mission is to ensure...
Transcript of Evolution of the Grid in MISO Region - UMN CCAPS · 2017-11-01 · MISO’s mission is to ensure...
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Jordan Bakke, David Duebner, Durgesh Manjure, Laura Rauch
MIPSYCON November 7, 2017
Evolution of the Grid in MISO Region
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MISO’s mission is to ensure reliable delivery of low-cost energy through efficient, innovative operations and planning
• Footprint ‒ 15 US States, 1 Canadian Province ‒ City of New Orleans
• Scope of Market Operations ‒ $25.3 billion gross market charges ‒ 437 Market Participants ‒ 42 million end-use customers ‒ 65,800 miles of transmission
• Generation Capacity ‒ 175 GW (market); 191 GW (reliability)
• Historic Peak load ‒ 127 GW (market); 131 GW (reliability
• 175 Members
Market Footprint
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Drivers of Change
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MISO expects significant growth in renewable and gas-fired generation
Accelerated Fleet Change Renewables and demand side technologies added at a rate above historical trends. Fleet changes result in a 20% CO2 emission reduction1.
Continued Fleet Change Continuation of the renewable addition and coal retirement trends of the past decade.
Limited Fleet Change Stalled generation fleet changes. Limited renewables additions driven solely by existing RPS under limited demand growth.
2005
2032 MTEP18 Future Scenarios
76%
7%
2%
13% 2%
48%
24% 2%
16%
8% 2017
51% 24%
2% 13%
10%
35%
21%
2%
12%
30% 40%
27% 2%
10%
21%
1. Emission reductions from current levels by year 2031
Distributed & Emerging Tech New renewable additions largely distributed and storage resources co-located with largest sites.
43%
27% 2%
13%
15%
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Changing geographic resource deployment drives changes in transmission needs
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Historic Flow Patterns and LNG Imports
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MISO is already experiencing high wind generation levels
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4
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10
12
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16
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1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22
GW
Nov 12, 2016 (24 hrs) Nov 13, 2016 (24 hrs)
MISO North: 80% load from wind at 4:00 am
Load Net Load Coal GasNuclear Other Wind
MISO Total
MISO North*
2016 wind % of annual energy
8% 27%
2016 hourly wind peak (Dec. 7 @ 11pm)
13.6 GW
11.6 GW
2016 maximum wind as a % of load (Nov. 13 @ 4 am)
22% 80%
*MISO North has roughly the same annual energy as ISO New England
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Renewable Integration Impact Assessment (RIIA) seeks to find inflection points of renewable integration complexity
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Ren
ewab
le In
tegr
atio
n C
ompl
exity
Renewable Energy Penetration (steps of 10%)
Integration Inflection Points (significant change in the structure
and/or operation of the system)
Illustrative Example
Inflection Point Focus Areas:
Resource Adequacy
Operational
Steady State
System Stability
Study Focus Areas:
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Planning & Modeling
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Economic Planning
• Multiple Futures are studied to capture a wide range of possible load growth rates and resource mixes in long-term (15 year) planning horizon
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• Economic analysis at hourly (Day-Ahead) and 5-minute (Real Time) levels to capture variability of resources and associated impacts
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Reliability Planning • Additional system conditions are analyzed to capture variable
resources: • System peak condition: Summer peak in MISO • Off-peak conditions: Shoulder peak (70-80% peak load),
Light load (minimum load), and Winter peak condition • Renewable generation study assumptions:
• System peak models at capacity credit level: Wind 15.6% of nameplate, Solar PV 50% of nameplate (est.)
• Shoulder peak at average or policy design level: Wind 40% or 90% of nameplate, Solar PV 50% nameplate
• Light Load at minimum or design level: Wind at 0% or 90% of nameplate. Solar at 0% nameplate at night
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Modeling Distributed Energy Resources
• Reliability planning tools need to model DER
• Planning Coordinators and Transmission Planners need DER info at substation levels • NERC MOD-032
standard and associated model development processes need updating
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Integrating DER • Changes at distribution level
• Aggregation of DER, distribution microgrids, Distribution Operators
• Transmission Planners needs to know the load the transmission will serve • Net load at transmission bus can work • Distribution gross load and DER
generation provides more accurate dynamic simulation results
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Resource Adequacy
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Factors driving reserve margins
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External Non-Firm Support
Diversity of load between MISO and external
system allows limited non-firm support
MISO process reevaluates this value
every year
Increase in Non-firm support (-)
Weather and Economic
Uncertainty
Captures uncertainty due to economics and weather
(not forecast error)
MISO process evaluates variation in this value
every year
Increase in either Weather or Economic
Uncertainty (+)
Load
LBA level forecasts are updated annually and
aggregated into regional values
Increase in forecasted demand (-)
Flatter load Profile (+)
Generation
MISO capacity and firm imports included in
model
Increase in Unit size (+)
Increase in Forced outages (+)
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Planning Reserve Margin increase due to increase in outage rates
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1.2% 0.2%
0.8% 0.8%
7.8% 8.4%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
17/18 PY Increase in LoadDiversity
Economic LoadUncertainty
Modeling
Dispatch Modelingof Demand Response
Increase in OutageRates
18/19 PY
Percent (%) UCAP
Process changes moving from Multi Area Reliability Simulation (MARS) to Strategic Energy & Risk Valuation Model (SERVM)
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The 2017 OMS MISO survey projects sufficient resources to manage resource adequacy risk
1.0
1.1 1.8
1.9
1.9
1.1
1.5
2.3
2.5
2.8
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
4.8 (19.6%)
6.6 (21.0%)
3.2 (18.3%) 2.6 (17.9%) 0.7 (16.3%)
Projected Regional Capacity Position in Installed Capacity 1 Day in 10 Planning Reserve Margin = 15.8% GW (% Reserves)
5.4 (20.0%)
7.0 (21.3%) 7.3 (21.6%)
3.9 (18.9%) 2.7 (17.9%)
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Potential New Capacity
Potentially Unavailable Resources
Committed Capacity Projections
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In a high load and extreme outage scenario, MISO is relying on BTMG’s and DR to meet peak demand
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Probable Outage Scenario
Extreme Outage Scenario 0%
67%
33% 28.7
0.0 5.0 2.4 36.1
.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
High LoadReserves
Extreme TotalOutages
Generation BTMG+DR OperatingReserves
GW
58% 30%
12% 23.3
11.6 6.1 2.4
43.4
.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Probable Reserves Total Outages Generation BTMG+DR OperatingReserves
GW
Emergency only resources (Steps 2b and above)
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Operations
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Pre- Energy Market (prior to April 2005) •Decentralized bi-lateral market and unit-commitment & dispatch
•Sub-optimal dispatch and congestion management
•Individual BAs carried own regulation and spin reserves
•Regulation requirement: ~1600 MW
•Spin requirement: ~1500 MW
Post-Energy market, pre-ASM •Centralized, optimal unit commitment and dispatch
•Transmission congestion managed through SCED
•Individual BAs still carried their own regulation and spin reserves
•Regulation requirement: ~1600 MW
•Spin requirement: ~1500 MW
Post-ASM (January 2009) •Centralized, co-optimized energy and operating reserves dispatch
•One centralized regulation target
•Pricing mechanism for regulation moved to market pricing
•Regulation requirement: ~400 MW
•Spin requirement: ~935 MW
Enhancements for portfolio evolution •Dispatchable Intermittent Resource product
•Ramping product
•Online transient stability
•Under consideration •Requirements for variable resources to provide ancillary service (efforts through MISO stakeholders, FERC and NERC)
•Market enhancements
Evolution of DA & RT market operations at MISO
DA: Day Ahead RT: Real-time
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Fleet changes, primarily driven by renewables have potential to adversely affect ability to maintain system reliability & economics
• Efficient dispatch & utilization • Uncertainty in output levels and timing
• Congestion management • Limited ability to “dispatch” wind
• System Ramping needs • Potential inability to ensure sufficient controllable
generation during times of load ramping
• Adequate frequency response • Decreasing levels of frequency responsive
generation
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MISO Generation Capacity Trend (MW)
Note the difference in the scale between the coal and wind trends
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Dispatchable Intermittent Resource and Ramping products help manage dispatch, congestion & ramp concerns
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Pre-DIR, dispatch target equaled observed output in previous state estimator snapshot – which could be ineffective, as shown below
DIR adjusts dispatch target based on real-time forecast and recognizing transmission limitations, as illustrated below
DIR: Dispatchable Intermittent Resource RT: Real-time
The blue trace is what the wind resource is capable of producing, and the green trace is what the transmission system can accommodate.
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Advanced real-time tools allow maximum utilization of renewables while minimizing congestion costs
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• Online assessment (green) provides consistently higher limits compared to offline studies (red).
• More efficient utilization of the transmission system by:
• minimizing real-time congestion and reducing costs
• accommodating higher wind generation by minimizing curtailments
• Contributes to overall market efficiency
while ensuring reliable operations
Online stability assessment reduced congestion costs by ~$31 million in 2016!
Avoided real-time congestion due to higher limits available through online assessment
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In summary, grid operations and planning continue to evolve to meet customer needs
• Planning processes are actively factoring in disruptive drivers to ensure optimal transmission development and resource adequacy
• Large amounts of renewables are being effectively handled in market operations through enhancements such as DIR, ramp-capability product and online stability assessments
• MISO is actively working towards ensuring continued reliability and efficiency in the face of an evolving grid
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