Everglades The Next Increment of Hydrologic Restoration · 4/12/2017  · getting to the heart of...

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South Florida Ecological Services Office, Vero Beach, FL Everglades The Next Increment of Hydrologic Restoration Lori Miller Senior Hydrologist April 12, 2017 1

Transcript of Everglades The Next Increment of Hydrologic Restoration · 4/12/2017  · getting to the heart of...

  • South Florida Ecological Services Office, Vero Beach, FL

    Everglades

    The Next Increment of Hydrologic Restoration

    Lori Miller Senior Hydrologist

    April 12, 2017 1

  • 1800s – early 1900s Lake Okeechobee 730 Square Miles Natural Reservoir for the Kissimmee Chain of Lakes Everglades 23 Million Acres Slope was 2 inches / mile Flows were 100 feet / day

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  • Historic Everglades Historic: Tree Islands = 1-3 ft. high Present Day: Tree Islands = 8 inches high

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  • Historic Everglades 1800s – 1930s: Settlers focused on drying the Everglades just south of Lake Okeechobee for agriculture using the rich muck. Flood of 1947: 100 inches of rain from a Category 4 hurricane. 1948: The flood prompted Congress to authorize the C&SF Project for drainage and flood control.

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  • C&SF Project (1950s-1960s) 720 miles of canals 1,000 miles of levees 250 water control structures

    Marjorie Stoneman Douglas Early Everglades Activist “The Everglades: River of Grass” Published 1947 5

  • Everglades Ag Area EAA

    WCA-1 (Lox NWR)

    WCA-2A/B

    WCA-3A

    WCA-3B

    Everglades National

    Park

    Big Cypress National Preserve

    Miami

    Ft. Lauderdale

    West Palm

    Beach

    Lake Okeechobee

    50% of the Everglades were lost!

    Urbanization

    EAA = 1,100 sq. mi.

    WCAs = 1,350 sq. mi.

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  • Everglades Ag Area EAA

    WCA-1 (Lox NWR)

    WCA-2A/B

    WCA-3A

    WCA-3B

    Everglades National

    Park

    Big Cypress National Preserve

    Miami

    Ft. Lauderdale

    West Palm

    Beach

    Lake Okeechobee

    C&SF Consequences of Compartmentalization 700,000 acres of wetlands were dried out 2.2 million ac-ft. of fresh water is drained off yearly Water pollution of the estuaries Lack of water in Everglades National Park Hyper-salinity in Florida Bay

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  • Historic Everglades

    Before

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  • After

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  • Water Control Structure Map

    Just a sampling of culverts, gates and pumps!

    The Myth of

    Command and Control!!!

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  • Water Control Structure Map

    Just a sampling of culverts, gates and pumps!

    The Myth of

    Command and Control!!!

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  • South Florida Ecological Services Office, Vero Beach

    12

  • 68 Threatened and Endangered Species

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  • Multi-Species Transition Strategy

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  • Historic Flow

    Current Flow

    Future Flow

    The Goal CERP 15

  • Can someone please tell me how to store all this water in a tiny bucket?

    Everglades 50%

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  • South Florida Ecological Services Office, Vero Beach

    Central Everglades Planning Project 2011-2013

    (CEPP)

    USACE Pilot Planning Project

    CEPP to the Rescue for a measly $3 billion!

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  • IPR 2

    IPR 1

    Central Everglades Study Process

    Decision Point 2 Tentatively Selected Plan Develop Next Authorization Increment • Establish criteria - Restoration Thresholds - Other considerations • Plan formulation & evaluation • Identify increment for authorization (TSP)

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    Decision Point 3 Civil Works Review Board • Complete draft PIR • Public review • Policy review • IEPR • Prepare final PIR

    Decision Point 4 Final Chief’s Report • Final EIS filed • State & agency review • Prepare final Chief’s Report

    SCOPING

    EXECUTION

    REVIEW

    CONFIRMATION 2

    3

    4

    Coordinated Review

    IPR 3 IPR 4

    IPR 5

    Incorporate Updated

    Science & Hydrology

    Develop Next

    Increment

    Develop TSP &

    PIR

    IPR 6

    IPR 7

    Decision Point 1 Determine Study Direction • Study scope/schedule • Analysis tools & techniques • Risk register • Key Assumptions - w/out project conditions - policy/process assumptions • Review Plan • Initiate model approvals

    Incorporate Updated Science & Hydrology • Evaluation tools • Update targets • Formulation Scenarios Management Measures/Features • Develop updated Conceptual framework

    Develop TSP • Detailed development of TSP • Project assurances • Reservations • Prepare draft PIR • Agency Technical Review

    3 months

    Target = 18 months

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  • CENTRAL EVERGLADES GETTING TO THE HEART OF THE EVERGLADES 19

    LAKE OKEECHOBEE

    St. Lucie Estuary

    Caloosahatchee Estuary

    Gulf of Mexico

    Florida Bay

    Biscayne Bay

    EVERGLADES AGRICULTURAL

    AREA

    EVERGLADES NATIONAL

    PARK

    WCA 3

    WCA 1

    WCA 2

    CENTRAL EVERGLADES PLANNING PROJECT (CEPP)

    PROPOSES TO:

    Move water south from Lake Okeechobee through Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA)

    Improve benefits to the east and west coast estuaries

    Store and treat flows in facilities within the EAA

    Send treated water south to improve conditions within Water Conservation Area 3A and 3B (WCA 3) and Everglades National Park and Florida Bay

  • CEPP Models Used Tier 1 – Screening

    Natural Systems Model (2011) - NSM-50 model is for historic conditions with 50% of historic flows. iModel (2011) – Inverse screening model where you input targets and let the model tell you how to operate the structures. Ecological Screening Models for landscape and species impacts. Tier 2 – Alternative Plans Regional Simulation Model (2012) – The RSM produces the array of alternative plans for selecting the final plan. Savings Clause refinements for Water Supply (2013)

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  • CEPP Models Used Tier 1 – Screening

    Natural Systems Model (2011) - NSM-50 model is for historic conditions With 50% of historic flows. iModel (2011) – Inverse screening model where you input targets and let the model tell you how to operate the structures. Ecological Screening Models for landscape and species impacts. Tier 2 – Alternative Plans Regional Simulation Model (2012) – The RSM produces the array of alternative plans for selecting the final plan. Savings Clause refinements for Water Supply (2013)

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  • CENTRAL EVERGLADES GETTING TO THE HEART OF THE EVERGLADES

    WCA 3A

    WCA 2

    WCA 1

    I-75

    WCA 3B

    SCREENING COMPLETED

    22 CENTRAL EVERGLADES RESTORING THE HEART OF THE EVERGLADES

    S-333

    L-30

    L-33

    L-28

    L-5

    Tamiami Trail

    L-67 Ext

    EVERGLADES AGRICULTURAL

    AREA

    WATER CONSERVATION

    AREAS

    EVERGLADES NATIONAL

    PARK

    L-29

    North of the Redline Combination of features to increase water deliveries

    downstream and improve estuarine benefits

    South of the Redline Features and their locations to best restore

    sheetflow in northern Water Conservation Area 3A

    Greenline/Blueline Features to best restore sheetflow through southern

    WCA-3A and 3B

    Configuration of conveyance features to best restore flows to Everglades National Park

    Yellowline Features to best compliment rest of project and

    manage seepage to the eastern urban area without impacting the water supply

    within considerations and constraints

  • Everglades Viewing Window Transects Aligned with Landscape Directionality

    L1 L2 L3

    T-A

    T-B

    T-C

    T-D

    L4

    L5

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  • 24

  • CEPP Models Used Tier 1 – Screening

    Natural Systems Model (2011) - NSM-50 model is for historic conditions With 50% of historic flows. iModel (2011) – Inverse screening model where you input targets and let the model tell you how to operate the structures. Ecological Screening Models for landscape and species impacts. Tier 2 – Alternative Plans Regional Simulation Model (2012) – The RSM produces the array of alternative plans for selecting the final plan. Savings Clause refinements for Water Supply (2013)

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  • CENTRAL EVERGLADES GETTING TO THE HEART OF THE EVERGLADES

    FEB Pump

    Gated Structure

    Spreader Canal

    Levee Removal Backfill

    STA

    WCA 3A

    WCA 2

    WCA 1

    I-75

    PROPOSED ALTERNATIVE 2

    26 CENTRAL EVERGLADES RESTORING THE HEART OF THE EVERGLADES

    S-333

    L-30

    L-33

    C-2

    L-28

    S-356

    G-211

    S-8

    Construct A-2 FEB and integrate with A-1 FEB operations Lake Okeechobee operation refinements within LORS

    DISTRIBUTION/CONVEYANCE

    SEEPAGE MANAGEMENT

    STORAGE AND TREATMENT

    DISTRIBUTION/CONVEYANCE A-2 A-1

    Diversion of L-6 flows and L-5 canal improvements Spreader canal: ~3 miles west of S-8 (3,000 cfs), ~3 miles east of

    S-8 (800 cfs) and ~1.5 miles east of G-206 (400 cfs) Backfill Miami Canal from S-8 to I-75

    Increase S-333 capacity to 3,000 cfs One 750 cfs and two 500 cfs gated structures in L-67A, 0.5 mile spoil

    removal west of L-67A north and south of structures 6,000-ft gaps in L-67C levee at each structure One additional 500 cfs gravity structure out of WCA-3B Tamiami Trail western 2.6 mile bridge and L-29 canal max stage at

    9.7 ft. (FUTURE WORK BY OTHERS) Degrade entire L-67 extension levee

    L-5

    Increase S-356 to 1,000 cfs Full depth penetrating seepage barrier from S-335 to S-334 Partial depth seepage barrier south of Tamiami Trail 2 miles along L-31N One 250 cfs pump on L-31N into ENP G-211 operational refinements; use coastal canals to convey seepage

    Tamiami Trail

    L-67 Ext

    S-335

    S-334

    EVERGLADES AGRICULTURAL

    AREA

    WATER CONSERVATION

    AREAS

    EVERGLADES NATIONAL

    PARK

    G-206

    Seepage Barrier

    WCA 3B

    L-29

    NOT TO SCALE

  • CENTRAL EVERGLADES GETTING TO THE HEART OF THE EVERGLADES

    WCA 3A

    WCA 2

    WCA 1

    I-75

    PROPOSED ALTERNATIVE 4

    CENTRAL EVERGLADES RESTORING THE HEART OF THE EVERGLADES

    S-333

    L-30

    L-33

    C-2

    L-28

    S-356

    G-211

    S-8

    Construct A-2 FEB and integrate with A-1 FEB operations Lake Okeechobee operation refinements within LORS

    DISTRIBUTION/CONVEYANCE

    SEEPAGE MANAGEMENT

    STORAGE AND TREATMENT

    DISTRIBUTION/CONVEYANCE A-2 A-1 Diversion of L-6 flows and L-5 canal improvements

    Spreader canal: ~3 miles west of S-8 (3,000 cfs), ~3 miles east of S-8 (800 cfs) and ~1.5 miles east of G-206 (400 cfs)

    Backfill Miami Canal from S-8 to I-75

    Increase S-333 capacity to 3,000 cfs Two 500 cfs gated structures in L-67A, 0.5 mile spoil removal west of

    L-67A north and south of structures Include levee in WCA 3B Degrade L-67C levee in Blue Shanty flow-way One 500 cfs gated structure north of Blue Shanty levee and 6,000-ft gap

    in L-67C levee Degrade L-29 levee in Blue Shanty flow-way, divide structure east of

    Blue Shanty levee at terminus of western bridge Tamiami Trail western 2.6 mile bridge and L-29 canal max stage at

    9.7 ft. (FUTURE WORK BY OTHERS) Degrade entire L-67 extension levee

    L-5

    Increase S-356 to 1,000 cfs Partial depth seepage barrier south of Tamiami Trail 5 miles along L-31N G-211 operational refinements; use coastal canals to convey seepage

    Tamiami Trail

    L-67 Ext

    S-335

    S-334

    EVERGLADES AGRICULTURAL

    AREA

    WATER CONSERVATION

    AREAS

    EVERGLADES NATIONAL

    PARK

    G-206

    FEB Pump

    Gated Structure

    Spreader Canal

    Levee Removal Backfill

    STA

    Seepage Barrier 27 Levee Divide

    WCA 3B

    L-29

    NOT TO SCALE

  • South Florida Ecological Services Office, Vero Beach

    Current Status of CEPP:

    March 31, 2016 – Report to Congress

    December 9, 2016 - Authorization from Congress under the Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation Act, signed December 16, 2016.

    Awaiting Appropriations – WRDA Revision 2016

    28

  • South Florida Ecological Services Office, Vero Beach

    Earth System Box Model For

    Climate Change and the Everglades

    Developed December 13, 2016

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  • South Florida Ecological Services Office, Vero Beach

    Earth System Box Model

    Primary Physical Processes

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  • South Florida Ecological Services Office, Vero Beach

    Earth System Box Model Incorporating Ocean Circulations

    Parameters

    Parameter Description Unit Value

    λ1 Climate sensitivity W-1 m2 K-1 0.68

    Cp2 Heat capacity of ocean water

    J kg-1 K-1 3985

    ρ3 Density of sea water kg m-3 1082

    Voc4 Volume of Ocean m3 1.33 * 1018

    vd5 Deepwater formation m3 s-1 6.5×107

    A4 Surface of the Earth m2 5.1*1014

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  • South Florida Ecological Services Office, Vero Beach

    Earth System Box Model Incorporating Land Carbon Cycle

    Parameters

    NPP0 55 PgC yr-1 (Gerber, 2014)

    k0 0.033 yr-1 (Gerber, 2014)

    Beta factor 0.6 (Norby et al., 2005)

    Q10 2

    Climate sensitivity 2.5 K per doubling of CO2 (IPCC AR5)

    CO2 (1850) 280 ppm (Etheridge et al., 1998)

    CO2 (2100) 700 ppm (~Mid-range IPCC scenario, IPCC AR5)

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  • South Florida Ecological Services Office, Vero Beach

    Earth System Box Model

    Lag in Climate Warming in Response to Radiative Forcing

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  • South Florida Ecological Services Office, Vero Beach

    Earth System Box Model Inducing a step change in radiative forcing:

    There is a warming trend in surface temperatures with the doubling of the radiative forcing. This temperature trend shows a lag in increases to the radiative forcing. The temperature of the deep ocean shows little effect.

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  • South Florida Ecological Services Office, Vero Beach

    Earth System Box Model Temperature Variations for the last 1000 years:

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  • South Florida Ecological Services Office, Vero Beach

    Earth System Box Model NPP as a Function of CO₂

    NPP = NPP₀ [1+ẞln(CO₂/CO₂₀)]

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    CO2

    NPP

    Concentration (ppm/yr)

    Concentration (PgC/yr)

    NPP as a Function of CO21850 - 2100

    284.725

    55.5522285667

    284.875

    55.5696091851

    285

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    285.125

    55.5985565554

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    358.1275

    63.1212823476

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    RCP6_MIDYEAR_CONCENTRATIONS

    RCP6.0_MIDYEAR__CONCENTRATIONS____________________________

    CONTENT: CMIP5 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ANNUAL AVERAGE, GLOBAL MEAN CONCENTRATIONS.

    RUN: RCP6, FINAL RELEASE, 30 May 2010

    RCP6.0 CONTACT: AIM group, Toshihiko Masui ([email protected]) & Kenichi Matsumoto ([email protected])

    DATE: 30/5/2010 01:02:33 (updated description)

    MAGICC-VERSION: 6.3.09, 25 November 2009

    FILE PRODUCED BY: RCP Concentration Calculation & Data Group, M. Meinshausen, S. Smith, K. Riahi, D. van Vuuren et al.

    DOCUMENTATION: M. Meinshausen, S. Smith et al. (2011) "The RCP GHG concentrations and their extension from 1765 to 2300", DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, Climatic Change.

    CMIP5 INFO: http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/

    RCP DATABASE: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb

    FURTHER INFO: For data sources, aknowledgements and further information, see http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps

    NOTE: RCP6 starts 2005; 20th century data and earlier is provided for convenience;

    COLUMN_DESCRIPTION________________________________________

    1. CO2EQ - (For Information only, not CMIP5 recommendation) CO2 equivalence concentrations using CO2 radiative forcing relationship Q = 3.71/ln(2)*ln(C/278), aggregating all (efficacy-adjusted) anthropogenic forcings, including greenhouse gases listed below (i.e. columns 3,4,5 and 8-35), and aerosols, trop. ozone etc. (not listed below).

    2. KYOTO-CO2EQ - (For information only, not CMIP5 recommendation) As column 1, but only aggregating greenhouse gases controlled under the Kyoto Protocol (columns 3,4,5 and 8-19).

    3. CO2 - Atmospheric CO2 concentrations

    4. CH4 - Atmospheric CH4 concentrations

    5. N2O - Atmospheric N2O concentrations

    6. FGASSUMHFC134AEQ - All flourinated gases controlled under the Kyoto Protocol, i.e. HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 (columns 8-19) expressed as HFC134a equivalence concentrations.

    7. MHALOSUMCFC12EQ - All flourinated gases controlled under the Montreal Protocol, i.e. CFCs, HCFCs, Halons, CCl4, CH3Br, CH3Cl (columns 20-35) expressed as CFC-12 equivalence concentrations.

    8. - 19. - Flourinated Gases controlled under the Kyoto Protocol

    20. - 35. - Ozone Depleting Substances controlled under the Montreal Protocol

    &THISFILE_SPECIFICATIONS

    THISFILE_DATACOLUMNS = 35,

    THISFILE_FIRSTYEAR = 1765,

    THISFILE_LASTYEAR = 2500,

    THISFILE_ANNUALSTEPS = 1,

    THISFILE_FIRSTDATAROW = 40,

    THISFILE_UNITS = SEE ROW 38,

    THISFILE_DATTYPE = RCPDAT

    /

    COLUMN:1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435

    UNITS:ppmppmppmppbppbpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptpptppt

    YEARSCO2EQKYOTO-CO2EQCO2CH4N2OFGASSUMHFC134AEQMHALOSUMCFC12EQCF4C2F6C6F14HFC23HFC32HFC43_10HFC125HFC134aHFC143aHFC227eaHFC245faSF6CFC_11CFC_12CFC_113CFC_114CFC_115CARB_TETMCFHCFC_22HCFC_141BHCFC_142BHALON1211HALON1202HALON1301HALON2402CH3BRCH3CL

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