Evaluating the added value in regional climate model...

Evaluating the added value in regional climate modelsimulations of extreme temperatures in India

Kamal Kumar Murari

Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies

Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India)

US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience

Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India)

Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 1 / 19

March 7, 2017

Outline1 Background2 Studies on impact of extreme temperature on different sectors

Impact of extreme temperatures in peak electricity demand in PuneImpact of extreme temperature on wheat yields: conceptualframeworkImpact of extreme temperature on wheat yields in IGP regionRegional model’s simulation of extreme temperature in IGP regionExposure of extreme temperature on plot level yieldsThe relationship of heat wave and mortality and projection of heatwave characteristics in India

3 The added value of RCMs and issuesFramework for assessing the added value of CORDEX-RCMs toaddress added valueEvaluating the added value of CORDEX-RCMs extreme temperaturesSimulation of characteristics of severe heat waves in India

4 Issues for evaluation of added value of CORDEX RCMs5 Conclusions


Background

Background

Precipitation and temperature are the most important variables forimpact studies.

Quality controlled data of these variables to an appropriatelydis-aggregated scale is the need of the end-users, which is reallydifficult to get in Indian context.

One of the major objective of end-users is to address the likely impactof climate variability and climate extremes, at a localized scale, usingobserved data or projected climate data under different scenarios.

There has been more focus on precipitation downscaling (both meanand extreme states) and less focus on other variables. Particularlytemperature extreme which has been found to be an importantvariable to suggest impact in human systems.


Studies on impact of extreme temperature on different sectorsImpact of extreme temperatures in peak electricity demand in

Pune

Impact of extreme temperatures in peak electricity demandin Pune

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Shivaji Nagar Kothrud Pimpri

Daily temperature variability and relative humidity are useful data toaddress temperature-electricity relationship

Contributors: Ayush Maheshwari, Aniket Navalkar, Dr. T Jayaraman


Studies on impact of extreme temperature on different sectorsImpact of extreme temperature on wheat yields: conceptual

framework

Impact of extreme temperature on wheat yields:conceptual framework

Exposure to extreme temperatures during reproductive period mightinfluence the crop yield and production.

Source: Teixeira et al., 2013


Studies on impact of extreme temperature on different sectors Impact of extreme temperature on wheat yields in IGP region

Impact of extreme temperature on wheat yields

Simulation of daily temperature values are useful to assess exposure toGDDs and EDDs.Contributors: Sandeep Mahato and Dr. T Jayaraman


Studies on impact of extreme temperature on different sectors Regional model’s simulation of extreme temperature in IGP region

Regional model’s simulation of extreme temperature inIGP region

RCMs show a large uncertainty in simulating area exposed to criticaltemperature of wheat


Studies on impact of extreme temperature on different sectors Exposure of extreme temperature on plot level yields

Exposure of extreme temperature on plot level yields

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Temporal simulation of daily temperature records are useful to estimateGDDs and EDDs, which are useful to estimate plot-wise exposure toextreme temperatures.

Contributors: Himanshu Pathak and Dr. T Jayaraman


Studies on impact of extreme temperature on different sectorsThe relationship of heat wave and mortality and projection of heat

wave characteristics in India

The relationship of heat wave and mortality

Source: Murari et al., 2015


Studies on impact of extreme temperature on different sectors

Projection of heat wave characteristics in India

Source: Murari et al., 2015


The added value of RCMs and issues

Projections from Regional Climate Models (RCMs)

RCMs has scale related added value for providing simulation of keyclimatic variables.

However, it is not clear whether this added value also reflects insimulation of intensity, magnitude, duration and frequencycharacteristics of key climatic variables.

In addition, there are limited studies that attempts to assess theadded value of RCMs to better represent climatic processes andphenomena that explains occurrence of extremes.

However, the ability of RCMs to provide a realistic simulation ofclimatic features is well debated in the literature and it is not clear ifRCMs have better skills than GCMs, particularly for simulation ofboth temperature and precipitations extremes (Racherla et al., 2012;Glotter et al., 2014; Laprise et al., 2014).


The added value of RCMs and issuesFramework for assessing the added value of CORDEX-RCMs to

address added value

Framework for assessing the added value ofCORDEX-RCMs


The added value of RCMs and issuesEvaluating the added value of CORDEX-RCMs extreme

temperatures

Simulation of leading mode of EOF of daily temperaturedata

Contributors: Dr. Subimal Ghosh and Dr. Edoardo Daly


The added value of RCMs and issuesEvaluating the added value of CORDEX-RCMs extreme

temperatures

Simulation of second leading mode of EOF of dailytemperature data



The added value of RCMs and issues

The relationship of SST variability of Indian ocean region



The added value of RCMs and issues Simulation of characteristics of severe heat waves in India

Impact of extreme temperature on wheat yields



Issues for evaluation of added value of CORDEX RCMs

Issues for evaluation of added value of CORDEX RCMs

Unavailability of appropriate framework for evaluation added value ofRCMs.

There is no framework that can address the separation good RCMand not good RCM (or weighting RCMs based on performance inrelation to observed data) from a set of ensembles

It is not yet clear whether RCMs has added value than statisticaldownscaled product obtained from driving GCMs

RCMs has a similar magnitude of bias as of their driving GCMs.There are plenty of bias correction approached. For users it is notclear which bias correction method should be used.


Conclusions

Conclusions

Temperature extreme is one climatic information that is well evidentto relate with the impact on electricity demand, crop yield (both atmacro and micro scale)

Impact assessment studies emphasized the need of daily scaleinformation along with spatial detail for better applicability ofapproaches.

There is no framework available that guides users to evaluate RCMsor assess the added value of RCMs.

In our study of assessment of added value of CORDEX-RCMs we findboth GCMs and RCMs has similar skill to simulate heat wavecharacteristics of north India.

Our study suggest CRODEX-RCMs adds values for simulation of heatwave characteristics of South India. It provides better physicalexplanation of occurrence of extreme temperature conditions in SouthIndia.


Acknowledgments

Prof. T. Jayaraman: TISS, Mumbai

Mr. Ayush Maheshwari: IIT Bombay

Mr. Sandeep Mahato: TISS, Mumbai

Mr. Himanshu Pathak: TISS, Mumbai

Dr. Subimal Ghosh: IIT Bombay

Dr. Edoardo Daly: Monash University, Australia

Thanks

Email: [email protected]


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