EuropeanCivilUnmannedAirVehicleRoadmap3 (8.5M)

25 Nations for an Aerospace Breakthrough

European Civil Unmanned Air Vehicle Roadmap

VOLUME 3 – STRATEGIC RESEARCH AGENDA SUBMITTED ON BEHALF OF THE EUROPEAN CIVIL UAV FP5 R&D PROGRAM MEMBERS:

Italy

Germany Italy

Italy

Israel

U.K.

Italy Czech Rep.

Italy

France

Italy

Italy

Germany

Italy

Sweden

France

France

Spain

Italy

Israel

Poland

Israel

Lithuania

France

Israel

Belgium

France

Hungary Poland

Sweden

Germany

Mark Okrent UAVNET Coordinator WWW.UAVNET.COM

Netherlands

SAVE DATE: 2005-12-25 - PRINT DATE: 2005-12-25 of 192 DOCNAME: UAV Roadmap Vol III SRA.doc

©25 Nations for an Aerospace Breakthrough European Civil UAV Roadmap Volume 3 – Strategic Research Agenda

Foreword to Volume 3

The European Civil Unmanned Air Vehicle Roadmap Volume 1 was released in March 2005 and

may be viewed as the introduction to Volumes 2 and 3.

In this volume, the focal point is on the technologies and applications of civil UAVs. It discusses the

Strategic Research Agenda of The Civil Unmanned Air Vehicles Roadmap, which was prepared as

a Pan-European effort in order to benefit Europe strategically, socially, economically and

technologically.

Here, the need for civil UAVs and their applications are introduced together with the technologies

involved. The foundations for the business case is also prepared and presented giving the market’s

financial perspective to this technology. This will allow the reader to obtain a deeper understanding

of the subject, its necessity and its impact on society and the economy. In addition, one will readily

appreciate how the Civil UAV Roadmap falls in line with the European Strategic Initiative

STAR21and VISION 2020.

Civil UAVs were initially treated as a distant technology, but as time races forwards civil UAVs have

come into range and have moved to the centre stage. In fact, their technological concepts are being

applied to air transport transforming these aircrafts into autonomous machines. Europe is investing

in the IFATS project, which is studying the requirements for unmanned air transport. It is with this in

mind that this document should be read.

Civil UAVs are an exciting growth industry that involves domains from psychology and sociology in

the realm of humanities through to engineering disciplines across the spectrum. The subject matter

touches all of society and encompasses global issues as well. Europe needs the technologies

involved in civil UAVs to strengthen its knowledgebased economy and to move forwards.

The value aspect is critical when looking at civil UAVs and civil UAVs should not be examined for

the power of the technology itself, but rather to the application of the technology on the potential

user’s value system. The applications for civil UAVs are numerous and increasing, as more people

are exposed to their potential. There are very few civil UAVs being used today; most are

adaptations of military systems or specialised one off systems.

Some of the civil UAVs applications may not be feasible with today’s technologies. However, the

need remains and technologies to meet the challenges will be found if investment is made

available.



The European Civil Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Roadmap comes to lead the way to this new growth

area, re-enforcing and widening Europe’s knowledge-based economy providing an added

advantage.

The time has come when civil UAVs are designed, built and used in a similar fashion to aircraft.



Executive Summary

The European Civil Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Roadmap is the result of very intensive work carried

out by 32 dedicated organisations representing Europe’s finest industries, research institutes,

universities and SMEs, and includes the work carried out by CAPECON and USICO, with

information gathered from a wide range of expert sources in UAVNET. The European Civil

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Roadmap covers all types of civil UAVs and their contributions to

society.

By adopting the European Civil Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Roadmap, Europe will position itself

centre-stage influencing the technologies for generations to come. Furthermore, SMEs will have an

opportunity to enter this exciting market and flourish with innovative designs and disruptive

technologies. Europe will stop the Brain Drain in the fields related to aeronautics and related supply

chains.

The civil UAV roadmap presented in this document relates to the European Roadmap for Research

Infrastructures (ESFRI) roadmap, mentioned in Ref. [ 17]. Therein, it was stated that, “In the context

of the ESFRI roadmap, the term research infrastructures refers to facilities that provide essential

services to the scientific community for basic or applied research”.

European Commissioner for Science and Research Janez Potocnik said, when commenting on the economy: “We must heed this wake-up call. If the current trends continue, Europe will lose the opportunity to become a leading global knowledge-based economy.”



The document is structured as follows:

Section 1 - is a primer describing the definitions and technical system explanation of civil

UAVs. This section includes the categories and the technical terminology

used in the world of civil UAVs.

Section 2 - describes the essential purpose of civil UAVs and the expected benefits.

Here, the different applications are portrayed with their advantages over

current systems.

Section 3 - informs the reader of the groundbreaking projects, that were funded by the

EC, which laid the foundations of civil UAVs of today.

Section 4 - briefly describes the market research for civil UAVs that was carried out by

Frost & Sullivan especially prepared for this Roadmap document.

Section 5 - demonstrates the business case and economics behind the use of civil UAVs.

Section 6 - describes what Europe has to gain by adopting the Civil UAV Roadmap.

Sections with a glossary of terms, references and an index follow.



Table of Contents

1 CIVIL UNMANNED AIR VEHICLES - TECHNICAL BACKGROUND............................13 1.1 A SYSTEMS APPROACH.............................................................................................................13 1.2 CIVIL MICRO-MINI UAVS PARTICULARITY...................................................................................18 1.3 CIVIL MINI-SMALL UAVS PARTICULARITY ..................................................................................19 1.4 CIVIL MALE UAVS PARTICULARITY...........................................................................................20 1.5 CIVIL HALE UAVS SYSTEM PARTICULARITY..............................................................................20 1.6 AIRSPACE CATEGORISATION .....................................................................................................20

2 THE NEEDS FOR CIVIL UAVS AND THEIR BENEFITS ..............................................23 2.1 BACKGROUND ...........................................................................................................................23 2.2 PRESENT APPLICATIONS............................................................................................................34

2.2.1 Present Law Enforcement Applications.............................................................................................34 2.2.2 A Civil UAV Looks inside Volcanic Craters........................................................................................35 2.2.3 Present Agricultural Applications.......................................................................................................35

2.3 FUTURE APPLICATIONS..............................................................................................................36 2.3.1 Satellite Complement.........................................................................................................................37 2.3.2 Navigational Aids ...............................................................................................................................41 2.3.3 Telecommunications..........................................................................................................................42 2.3.4 GMES ................................................................................................................................................47 2.3.5 Scientific and Earth Observation .......................................................................................................48 2.3.6 Mineral Exploration ............................................................................................................................62 2.3.7 Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries .......................................................................................................63 2.3.8 Surveillance & Security......................................................................................................................66 2.3.9 Civil UAVs as Nature’s Utensil - Wildlife & Nature ............................................................................82 2.3.10 Other Commercial Applications .........................................................................................................82 2.3.11 Civil UAV Transport Aircraft...............................................................................................................83

3 FOUNDATIONS OF EUROPEAN CIVIL UAVS .............................................................86 3.1 THE CAPECON PROJECT............................................................................................................87 3.2 USICO......................................................................................................................................94 3.3 UAVNET ..................................................................................................................................98 3.4 HELIPLAT ................................................................................................................................100 3.5 FP5 FUNDED CIVIL UAV PROJECTS KEY FINDINGS..................................................................102

3.5.1 USICO’s key findings.......................................................................................................................102 3.5.2 CAPECON’s Key Findings...............................................................................................................102 3.5.3 UAVNET’s Key Findings..................................................................................................................102

4 MARKET SURVEY - ACHIEVING OPERATIONAL CIVIL UAV SYSTEMS................104 4.1 TOTAL MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS.........................................................................................104

4.1.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................104 4.1.2 Methodology ....................................................................................................................................104 4.1.3 Market Drivers .................................................................................................................................105 4.1.4 Market Restraints.............................................................................................................................107 4.1.5 Market Challenges...........................................................................................................................110 4.1.6 Quantifying the Market.....................................................................................................................112

4.2 CRITICAL FOCUS: OPERATING UAVS IN CIVILIAN AIRSPACE: CURRENT AND FUTURE OPTIONS.114 4.2.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................114

4.3 OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENTS ................................................................................................115 4.3.1 Situational awareness......................................................................................................................115



4.3.2 See & Avoid .....................................................................................................................................116 4.3.3 Realistic options – Technological Solutions ....................................................................................116 4.3.4 Situational Awareness .....................................................................................................................116 4.3.5 See & Avoid .....................................................................................................................................117

4.4 CRITICAL FOCUS: KEY END MARKETS .....................................................................................118 4.4.1 Forest and Forest Fire Management ...............................................................................................118 4.4.2 Border Patrol....................................................................................................................................121 4.4.3 Maritime Surveillance ......................................................................................................................124 4.4.4 Law Enforcement.............................................................................................................................127 4.4.5 Communications ..............................................................................................................................130 4.4.6 Earth Observation............................................................................................................................135 4.4.7 Pipeline Observation........................................................................................................................139 4.4.8 Powerline Maintenance ...................................................................................................................142

5 CIVIL UNMANNED VEHICLE – BUSINESS CASE EXAMPLES ................................146 5.1 ASSUMPTIONS USED................................................................................................................147 5.2 BUSINESS CASE 1 - EMERGENCIES - FOREST FIRE...................................................................154 5.3 BUSINESS CASE 2 - COMMUNICATION RELAYS.........................................................................161 5.4 BUSINESS CASE 3 – PIPELINE MONITORING.............................................................................162 5.5 SOUND TECHNOLOGICAL BASE................................................................................................165

6 EUROPEAN OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSEQUENCES ...........................................166 6.1 EUROPEAN OPPORTUNITIES.....................................................................................................169

7 GLOSSARY OF TERMS ..............................................................................................172

8 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................177



List of Figures

Figure 1-1 Telecommunications Options ..............................................................................................................13

Figure 1-2 Civil UAV Categories ...........................................................................................................................15

Figure 1-3 Trend Lines for Payload versus Maximum Takeoff Weight (MTOW) Rotary UAVs............................16

Figure 1-4 Minimum Civil UAV System Components ...........................................................................................17

Figure 1-5 System Out - Pollution Map.................................................................................................................18

Figure 1-6 Seiko Epson Corp. Micro-Rotary UAV .................................................................................................19

Figure 1-7 DARPA Airborne Communications Node ............................................................................................19

Figure 1-8 Possible Mini-Small Civil UAV on a Vineyard Mapping Application ....................................................19

Figure 1-9 Airspace Classifications, & example of a Flight Corridor through Class B Airspace...........................22

Figure 2-1 Relationship of Technologies & Market Forces...................................................................................24

Figure 2-2 Civil UAV Innovation Goals..................................................................................................................24

Figure 2-3 Model of Knowledge-Based Economy.................................................................................................28

Figure 2-4 Projected Civil UAVs Applications and Benefits ..................................................................................29

Figure 2-5 Civil Unmanned Air Vehicle – Natural Continuation to Hi-Tech Air Transport ....................................30

Figure 2-6 Investment in Research & Development - see Ref. [ 14] .....................................................................30

Figure 2-7 Present Strengths & Weaknesses of Current Civil UAV Technologies ...............................................34

Figure 2-8 Kauai Coffee Plantation - Composite of High Resolution Visible Imagery ..........................................36

Figure 2-9 Kauai Coffee Plantation – Ripeness Mapping Correlation ..................................................................36

Figure 2-10 The Atmospheric Model.....................................................................................................................38

Figure 2-11 Snapshot of Geostationary Satellites around the Equator ................................................................39

Figure 2-12 Estimated Flight Hour Cost – HALE ..................................................................................................40

Figure 2-13 Spacecraft Cost-Per-Operational Day As A Function Of The Design Lifetime .................................40

Figure 2-14 Satellite - Civil HALE UAV - Earth Relay ...........................................................................................41

Figure 2-15 ESA Space Weather Programme Study Market Analysis .................................................................42

Figure 2-16 Lower Altitude to Monitor Earth - Avoids Space to Earth Atmospheric Distortion.............................43

Figure 2-17 HALE - Stationary High Altitude Relay Platform Concept .................................................................44



Figure 2-18 Examples of LTA’s - High Altitude Platform Station ..........................................................................44

Figure 2-19 Alternative Telecommunication Link to Underwater Cables..............................................................47

Figure 2-20 Required Atmospheric Soundings Above Europe .............................................................................50

Figure 2-21 Example of an Atmospheric Model....................................................................................................51

Figure 2-22 Weather Data and Information Critical to Realizing Other Societal Benefits ....................................52

Figure 2-23 Data from NASA’s Crystal-Face Project............................................................................................53

Figure 2-24 Understanding of Atmospheric Variables ..........................................................................................54

Figure 2-25 Growth Rates Monitored On The Nafanua Undersea Volcano .........................................................55

Figure 2-26 Chemical Pollution in Europe ............................................................................................................58

Figure 2-27 A European Pollution Map & Acid Rain Risk Areas ..........................................................................58

Figure 2-28 Current European Nuclear Power Stations & Contamination from Chernobyl..................................59

Figure 2-29 Oil at Sea The Efforts Involved..........................................................................................................60

Figure 2-30 Geographical location of the Arno River Basin (Landsat TM7 RGB 457 composite)........................61

Figure 2-31 Landslides in Tuscany – INSAR Enables Ground Movement Detection...........................................61

Figure 2-32 1997 Northwest Australia...................................................................................................................63

Figure 2-33 Visual, Infra-red and Multi-Spectral Agricultural Monitoring ..............................................................64

Figure 2-34 Security Assessment - Most Probable Threats .................................................................................66

Figure 2-35 Expected Casualty and Economic Impact .........................................................................................66

Figure 2-36 Potential Prevention Capabilities by Class of UAVs..........................................................................67

Figure 2-37 Potential Response Capabilities by Class of UAVs...........................................................................67

Figure 2-38 Border Patrol Agent Escorting Illegal Aliens......................................................................................68

Figure 2-39 Monitoring Sea Approaches ..............................................................................................................68

Figure 2-40 Real-time Car Park and Traffic Monitoring ........................................................................................70

Figure 2-41 Flexibility Provided by Civil UAVs for Monitoring Critical Infrastructures ..........................................72

Figure 2-42 Europe’s Pipeline with Identification of objects near a pipeline track................................................76

Figure 2-43 Underground Pipeline Leaks in the southwestern United States ......................................................77

Figure 2-44 Power Line Monitoring – Associated Challenges ..............................................................................78



Figure 2-45 Forest Saved by using Civil UAVs to Aid Commander of Fire Fighting Team ..................................79

Figure 2-46 Comparison of Fire Monitoring ..........................................................................................................80

Figure 2-47 Flooding In Europe ............................................................................................................................81

Figure 2-48 Delineation of Inundation Maps via Satellite Images.........................................................................81

Figure 2-49 Required Inundation Maps Made Possible by Civil UAVs.................................................................81

Figure 2-50 Revenue Ton-miles for Large Air Carriers - Air Cargo - Fiscal Years 2003-2014.............................84

Figure 2-51 IFATS Concept for Autonomous Aircraft ...........................................................................................85

Figure 3-1 Closed Loop Dilemma of the Three Principle Stakeholders of Civil UAVs..........................................87

Figure 3-2 CAPECON Feasibility Ground Rules...................................................................................................88

Figure 3-3 CAPECON UAV Research Domains...................................................................................................89

Figure 3-4 CAPECON - Modular HALE Civil UAV Design....................................................................................90

Figure 3-5 Capecon - Solar HALE Civil UAV Design............................................................................................90

Figure 3-6 Capecon – Blended Wing-Body HALE Civil UAV Design 1 ................................................................91

Figure 3-7 Capecon – Blended Wing-Body HALE Civil UAV Design 2 ................................................................91

Figure 3-8 Capecon – MALE Civil UAV Diesel Supercharged Engine Configuration Design 1 ...........................92

Figure 3-9 Capecon – MALE Civil UAV Turbo-Engine Configuration Design 2....................................................92

Figure 3-10 Capecon – Single Rotor Civil UAV ....................................................................................................93

Figure 3-11 Capecon – Coaxial Rotary Civil UAV ................................................................................................93

Figure 3-12 USICO Typical HALE Civil UAV Operational Flight...........................................................................95

Figure 3-13 USICO – Modelling Collision Avoidance Scenarios Overview ..........................................................96

Figure 3-14 USICO – ATM and Operations Simulator Configured for UAV Trials ...............................................97

Figure 3-15 USICO – Collision Avoidance Scenarios Example............................................................................97

Figure 3-16 USICO – ATC Display Scenarios of Simulated Air Traffic with Civil UAV.........................................98

Figure 3-17 UAVNET Workshops .......................................................................................................................100

Figure 3-18 Heliplat Configuration ......................................................................................................................101

Figure 4-1 The Total Market for Civil and Commercial UAV Markets in Europe, 2006-2015 .............................112

Figure 4-2 The Total Market Shares for Civil and Commercial UAV Markets in Europe, 2006-2015.................114



Figure 4-3 The Total Market for Forest Fire Management UAVs in Europe, 2006-2015....................................121

Figure 4-4 The Total Market for Border Patrol UAVs in Europe, 2006-2015......................................................124

Figure 4-5 The Total Market for Maritime Surveillance UAVs in Europe, 2006-2015.........................................127

Figure 4-6The Total Market for Law Enforcement UAVs in Europe, 2006-2015 ................................................130

Figure 4-7 The Total Market for Communications UAVs in Europe, 2006-2015 ................................................135

Figure 4-8 The Total Market for Earth Observation UAVs in Europe, 2006-2015 ..............................................139

Figure 4-9The Total Market for Pipeline Monitoring UAVs in Europe, 2006-2015 .............................................141

Figure 4-10The Total Market for Powerline Maintenance UAVs in Europe, 2006-2015.....................................145

Figure 5-1 Approach to Civil UAV Induction .......................................................................................................146

Figure 5-2 Civil UAV Cost Comparison with Manned Aircraft.............................................................................152

Figure 5-3 Area of Forest Lost Due to Fire as a Function of Time & Actual Areas ............................................156

Figure 5-4 Forest Fire In Portugal Summer 2005 - 180 000 Hectares - See Ref. [ 95] .......................................157

Figure 5-5 Coverage Comparison Between Civil UAV and Pylon-Mounted Cameras .......................................158

Figure 5-6 Northern Hungarian Border Map .......................................................................................................158

Figure 5-7 Coverage of the UK with a network of HAPs.....................................................................................162

Figure 5-8 Relative Cost For Pipeline Monitoring - Remote Sensing .................................................................164



List of Tables

Table 2-1 Basic Characteristics of Terrestrial Wireless, Satellite, and HAPs Systems ........................................45

Table 2-2 Relative Importance - Illustrative List of Earth Observations & Societal Benefit Areas........................49

Table 2-3 Summary of Causes and Spilled Volumes for 2003 incidents..............................................................72

Table 4-1 Civil and Commercial UAV Markets: Market Drivers (Europe), 2006 - 2015......................................105

Table 4-2 Civil and Commercial UAV Markets: Market Restraints (Europe), 2006 - 2015.................................107

Table 4-3 Civil and Commercial UAV Markets: Market Challenges (Europe), 2006 - 2015 ...............................110

Table 4-4 The Total Market for Civil and Commercial UAV Markets in Europe, 2006-2015 ..............................113

Table 4-5 Civil and Commercial UAV Markets in Europe, 2006-2015................................................................113

Table 5-1 Civil UAV Remote Sensing Technologies - Benefits and Drawbacks ................................................147

Table 5-2 Pylon Mounted vs. Civil UAV Fire Monitoring Systems ......................................................................159

Table 6-1 Opportunities and Threats – Focused on Direct Effects.....................................................................166

Table 6-2 Expected Spin-off Opportunities .........................................................................................................169



1 CIVIL UNMANNED AIR VEHICLES - TECHNICAL BACKGROUND

1.1 A SYSTEMS APPROACH

UAV is an acronym for an unmanned/uninhabited air/aerial vehicle. The UAV is an aircraft that can be1 autonomous or when necessary, effectively controlled by persons on the ground should there be an emergency.

Civil UAV systems are synonymous with:

Remote sensing Airborne communications relay stations Air transport platforms

A civil UAV is inherently very flexible compared to manned aircraft and satellite systems. It can

carry out what is termed D3 tasks, which are Dull, Dangerous and Dirty. The civil UAV can stay at

remote locations for extended periods and when combined with the required payload can provide

an extremely efficient aerial sensing platform. Since these civil UAVs are built with the future in

mind, they will easily allow payload changes permitting the latest remote sensing technologies to be

rapidly exchanged. The civil UAV offers a very effective on site data acquisition system providing

high sensitivity and accurate measurements. These technologies will readily allow observation of

slow moving objects, for example measuring land slippage, and will offer high repeatability.

Civil UAVs also offer the possibility of serving as airborne communication relay stations filling a

niche area presently open. Much work on communications using future high altitude UAVs has

been carried out and is still ongoing. The vision for this niche opportunity is best illustrated in Figure

1-1.

FIGURE 1-1 TELECOMMUNICATIONS OPTIONS

1 Fully autonomous includes takeoff, flight path implementation and landing.



In addition to remote sensing and communications relays, civil UAVs are also proposed to carry

cargo. Research and development for this application has already begun indirectly in Europe with

the EC funded IFATS project and directly in the U.S. at George Mason University Virginia in

conjunction with the FAA using remotely operated Cessna Caravan aircraft.

On the technical side, the UAV system can be characterized by an air system and a ground system,

interconnected by data links, control links, and integrated into a technical and decision-making

environment. A UAV system includes several sub-systems integrated to fulfil a given application or

mission and is comprised of the following sub-systems – see Figure 1-4:

The air system:

The unmanned air vehicle – sometimes referred to as the platform, since it carries the payload

The payload(s) – which are the sensors that provide the required remotely sensed data, relay communication equipment or cargo

The ground system:

The ground stations – which includes the civil UAV control station and the data application station, that may be situated in the same physical location or in separate locations

1. The control station is used by the UAV operator for command and control of the UAV when required

2. The application station is used for reception of data obtained by the payloads and its analysis – it may be situated remotely and independently of the control station

3. Communication relay stations to transmit and receive data between the air and ground segments

4. Interface equipment to allow connection to other systems, where required for operations and support

Interface with the ATC/ATM2 for MALE (Medium Altitude with/without Long Endurance) and HALE (High Altitude with Long Endurance) UAVs

Communication links – control & data links between the air segment and the ground segment; communications links3 that connect both segments by direct line of sight or via a relay: an up link for the remote control of the air segment, and down link for telemetries providing the status of the air segment and data collected by the payload(s)

The UAV system is reusable, fully autonomous, pre-programmed or remotely piloted (or even both)

2 Air Traffic Control/Air Traffic Management system 3 Up link is the communication from the ground station to the air vehicle, and down link is the communication from the air vehicle to the

ground station



from the ground, from an air platform or from a naval platform, as necessary.

Civil UAVs are also categorised as a function of weight and operational altitude – see Figure 1-2 for

an overview, and are usually grouped into the following four main categories as defined below:

Micro-mini - less than 7kg in weight with flight altitude below 400ft and can also be flown indoors.

Mini-small - weight range of 8 – 400 kg with flight altitude 300 – 4000 ft, range below 500m, Visual Flight Rules (VFR).

Rotary - Rotary UAV configurations are characterized mainly by their ability to vertically take-off and land, and their hovering capability. The two main categories of Rotary UAV configurations are: a single main rotor and a co-axial rotor configuration, a third type is the tilt rotor; an example is the U.S. Navy Eagle Eye – see Figure 1-3.

Single Main Rotor - is the conventional helicopter configuration with known and proven technology and therefore relatively low cost both in development and maintenance.

Co-axial Rotor - is more complex and challenging for small rotorcraft, but has performance advantages over the conventional single main rotor configuration.

MALE - weight range of 400 – 4000 kg with flight altitude 15000 - 45000 ft, range above 500m, VFR. These UAVs once equipped with appropriate sensors can more efficiently replace human pilots flying similar applications

HALE - High Altitude Long Endurance, with flight altitude > 45000 ft

FIGURE 1-2 CIVIL UAV CATEGORIES



FIGURE 1-3 TREND LINES FOR PAYLOAD VERSUS MAXIMUM TAKEOFF WEIGHT (MTOW) ROTARY UAVS

Early UAVs were military remotely piloted vehicles (RPVs) that were completely manually

controlled. With the advance of computer technologies and control engineering, more stabilisation

was added to the RPV. However, it was found that human error was the major factor for RPV loss

and a major effort to remedy this was undertaken. More autonomy was added to the RPV, which

then received Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV) as its descriptive name. Since then, a great deal of

autonomy has been added to the UAVs albeit military, with human intervention only when serious

system malfunction occurs. The manual control option is always available for safety and backup

reasons.

In order to understand the different roles that civil UAVs can play, an appreciation of the source of

the definitions is needed.

Each category is designed for a defined environment and a set of applications and with the

appropriate types of payloads.



FIGURE 1-4 MINIMUM CIVIL UAV SYSTEM COMPONENTS4

In order to better visualise and understand the civil UAV system, an example of a customer

requiring a pollution map of Europe is described graphically in Figure 1-5. The requirement is the

system input and the pollution map is the system output.

All civil UAV systems have the same basic components, where the major differences are described

in the following sections.

A typical sequence of steps for civil UAV operation from the very beginning will usually include the

following:

Synchronisation with the ATC of civil UAV planned activities

Pre-flight preparation – entry of the required flight path (ATC permission assumed to be granted)

Takeoff/launch of the civil UAV and consequent flight to the area of interest

Remote sensing - image detection and transmission to the data application/ground station or both

Automatic or manual image processing at the data application /ground station or both

Object identification and auto-tracking

Transmission of relevant information to “customer5” – the system output

Follow-up activities as required

Civil UAV landing

4 The customer is the body that requires the information – emergency services, scientists, law enforcement services are typical

customers, but to name a few 5 Note: the ground station and data application station may be integrated into one unit.



FIGURE 1-5 SYSTEM OUT - POLLUTION MAP

1.2 CIVIL MICRO-MINI UAVS PARTICULARITY

Their uniqueness is their particularity. A micro/mini UAV is one that weighs less than 7 kilograms

and flies below 400 feet. Dimensions vary according to application. Presently, these micro/mini

UAVs may not have a particular application, but as their availability increases, there will be

customers for these technologies. They are to be easily deployable and retrievable.

Seiko Epson Corp. is presently developing an example of a micro-rotary UAV, which was revealed

at a Japanese trade show recently – see Figure 1-6. The Micro UAV weighs just 0.35 ounces and is

only 2.8 inches high – see Ref. [ 28]. The manufacturer built the device so that it could fly into

dangerous areas or areas hit by disasters instead of human beings in order to investigate the

situation. Another example would be for the micro-UAV to fly through crevices of a building

flattened by an earthquake and search for trapped survivors. The methods of operations are still to

be developed.

Another example of a micro UAV is the one that DARPA has designed to be used as an airborne

communication node – see Figure 1-7, which will provide a communications relay where necessary.



FIGURE 1-6 SEIKO EPSON CORP. MICRO-ROTARY UAV

FIGURE 1-7 DARPA AIRBORNE COMMUNICATIONS NODE

1.3 CIVIL MINI-SMALL UAVS PARTICULARITY

Mini-Small UAVs fly below the controlled airspace and hence will not require the collision avoidance

systems associated with the larger civil UAVs. However, they may require special collision

avoidance systems for flying in areas with natural or man-made obstacles. Collision avoidance of

these types of obstacles may be resolved by entering obstacle data into their navigation database.

They do not require unique takeoff and landing capabilities, which adds to their flexibility.

These civil UAVs have numerous applications such as ad-hoc monitoring where the civil UAV is

deployed on site with no takeoff or landing strip required. Applications vary from fire monitoring by

the fire fighters upon arrival at the scene to optimise the fire fighting effects, to localised pipeline or

traffic monitoring, through remote sensing.

FIGURE 1-8 POSSIBLE MINI-SMALL CIVIL UAV6 ON A VINEYARD MAPPING APPLICATION7

Another example of a small civil UAV application is in agriculture. Here, the small civil UAV can be

programmed to fly over a large wine vineyard to detect temperature variations by night, monitoring

potential freezing. By sending thermal sensor data to the application station, the vineyard owner

can mitigate potential frost problems by applying water to prevent freezing.

6 The T-15, www.arcturus-uav.com 7 See Ref. [ 68]



1.4 CIVIL MALE UAVS PARTICULARITY

The civil MALE UAVs require takeoff and landing strips, from which they will operate and require

support facilities for maintenance and repair, with the associated logistics. These civil UAVs will

regularly fly in controlled airspace and require See-and-Avoid systems that ensure collision

avoidance. These are critical technologies for civil MALE UAVs. These critical technologies are

one of the main challenges in civil UAV technologies and have to be developed and validated.

Civil MALE UAVs will be able to fly at altitudes up to approximately 10 000 m and at speeds similar

to manned aircraft and for periods in excess of 24 hours. This will give them the capability to

replace the present manned aircraft in the tasks that have already been described as Dirty, Dull and

Dangerous (D3). The monotonous applications that are presently carried out by manned flight will

be easily replaced by civil MALE UAVs. Their payloads will be similar or improved as compared to

those currently being used. With future plug-and-play technology payloads, different kinds of

remote sensing suites will to be carried by the civil MALE UAVs. The flexibility provided by this

family of civil UAVs includes, but is not limited to: coastal patrols, flood monitoring, digital mapping,

aid in emergencies, search and rescue and fire monitoring and management, precision agriculture

and fisheries monitoring, environmental studies that cover weather and pollution.

1.5 CIVIL HALE UAVS SYSTEM PARTICULARITY

HALE civil UAVs are similar to MALE civil UAVs, and require the necessary collision avoidance

equipment to traverse the air traffic before reaching the high altitude. The HALE flies above the air

traffic at altitudes above 60000 feet and in regions of severe temperature and wind changes. This

necessitates unique propulsion requirements to remain economical at those altitudes for long

periods as well as on board temperature stabilisation systems – see Figure 2-10 on page 38.

Civil HALE UAVs will be able to complement existing satellite systems, possibly replacing the Earth

Observation type satellites in the future. The other applications that civil HALE UAVs will carry out

are telecommunication relay stations that may complement or replace deep-sea telecommunication

cables and broadband TV relay stations.

1.6 AIRSPACE CATEGORISATION

Airspace at first glance appears to be an unquantifiable and endless resource. In reality airspace is

a closely supervised and limited resource, with defined attributes and strict rules of use. These

rules and regulations fall within two broad categories: controlled airspace and uncontrolled airspace

and within these two categories, six classifications determine the flight rules, pilot qualifications and



aircraft capabilities required in order to operate within any section of the airspace. A schematic

description of these classifications is shown in Figure 1-9. All civil aviation occurs below an altitude

of 60000 ft.

Controlled airspace is the airspace where Air Traffic Control8 (ATC) service is provided, which is

divided into five classes (A-E). These five classes may differ slightly between countries. Flight

through these various classes is through an authorised corridor, defined by a flight vector.

Class A Airspace – encompasses all airspace from 18,000 feet above mean sea level (MSL) to

60,000 feet MSL, including the airspace overlying the waters within a

predefined political distance from the country’s coastline

Class B Airspace – is defined, as the airspace that surrounds the nation’s busiest commercial

airports. These areas tend to be the most congested airspace and have the

most complex mix of aircraft operations, with everything from single-engine

trainers to high-speed jet transports. At its core, Class B extends from the

surface up to 10,000 feet MSL. All operations within Class B require specific

approval by ATC. The exact dimensions and shape of the layers are

individually tailored to meet local traffic and safety needs.

Class C Airspace – is the airspace that surrounds busy commercial airports of midsize cities with

a large number of commercial flight operations, as well as some military

airports. Operating control towers at the primary airport and radar services

are key components of Class C. The inner ring has a radius of 5 nm and

extends from the surface up to but not including 4,000 feet above ground

level (AGL). The outer ring has a radius of 10 nm and extends from 1,200

feet AGL up to but not including 4,000 feet AGL.

Class D Airspace – is applied to civilian and military airports with operating control towers but

where the traffic volume does not meet Class C or B standards and where

radar service often is unavailable. Traffic in this airspace usually lacks heavy

jet transport activity but often includes a complex mix of general aviation,

turboprop, and business jet traffic. The general shape of Class D airspace is

a 5 nm ring from the surface up to but not including 2,500 feet AGL.

8 This is sometimes referred together with Air Traffic Management (ATM)



Class E Airspace – extends upward from either the surface or a designated altitude to the

overlying or adjacent controlled airspace. It includes all airspace from 14,500

feet MSL up to but not including 18,000 feet MSL. It also includes all other

controlled airspace necessary for instrument flight rules (IFR) operations at

lower altitudes but not already classified as Class A-D.

Class G airspace – is uncontrolled airspace and includes all airspace not otherwise designated

as Class A-E.

FIGURE 1-9 AIRSPACE CLASSIFICATIONS9, & EXAMPLE OF A FLIGHT CORRIDOR THROUGH CLASS B AIRSPACE

9 Represents an airfield or airport, - represents a control tower



2 THE NEEDS FOR CIVIL UAVS AND THEIR BENEFITS

2.1 BACKGROUND

“The trouble with the future is that it usually arrives before we’re ready for it10”.

In the past, technological breakthroughs drove the market, whereas today, it is more the market

that drives the technological breakthroughs – see Figure 2-1. Today’s

aerospace industry is moving into the mature-consolidation phase, where

innovation is concentrated more in the cost-driven improvement of

particular products or services and towards autonomous flight with a

focus on “See-And-Avoid11” technologies. As they mature, aircraft will be

more autonomous, with cabin staff meeting the needs of the passengers

and the Head of the Crew supervising the autonomous system flying the

aircraft. It is with this in mind that civil Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAV) should be viewed. The civil

UAV will be just another component in airspace, nothing out of the ordinary. Piloted aircraft will

become a sport for the few, rather like Formula-One racing is today.

NASA has prepared the ground for small commuter aircraft to be flown by the masses, under the

acronym SATS – Small Aircraft Transportation System. The SATS project will enhance the

available collision avoidance systems, which are a major element in civil UAV technology.

Imagine the technological developments that computers have gone through, from machine code

programming to high-level 4th and 5th generation languages that automatically produce the low-level

code needed to run the computer systems. Similarly, flying aircraft has gone from the seat of the

pants, stick and rudder flying, via flight-system-augmentation to fly-by-wire automatic flight across

oceans. Today one can have the whole flight plan uploaded to the aircraft12 and when coupled with

the autopilot, the pilot does not have to touch the controls from takeoff to landing. This is a

significant step towards fully autonomous flight, which is really just around the corner. Once

collision avoidance is satisfactorily solved, autonomous flight will have arrived.

10 Arnold H. Glasow 11 Also referred to as detect and avoid systems. 12 The FAA has been providing “Coded departure routes” (CDRs), from

2001,http://www.ainonline.com/issues/12_04/12_04_codedclearencep65.htm



FIGURE 2-1 RELATIONSHIP OF TECHNOLOGIES & MARKET FORCES

Initially it will be tested through pilotless cargo13 air vehicles and once mature, will move to

passenger14 aircraft. Civil UAVs will use and promote all these research and development activities

together with present aircraft, through miniaturisation and sophistication.

The proposals laid out in this European Civil UAV roadmap will address: societal needs, market

demand and the expected technological advantage – see Figure 2-2. These are the three main

factors ensuring a sensible and successful allocation of research resources. Furthermore,

European Civil UAVs will be an impetus for new aerospace applications, where present aircraft

platforms are too expensive or are just unsuited for the applications.

European civil UAVs will bring about an aerospace revolution that will lead the field of unmanned

flight, across the world. This vision is within reach in the coming decade.

FIGURE 2-2 CIVIL UAV INNOVATION GOALS

There is no doubt today that a huge market is currently emerging from the potential applications

and services that will be offered by civil unmanned aircraft. It is predicted that with the increasing

13 The European IFATS project is a significant step towards this. 14 A psychological barrier has yet to be overcome.



demand for missions capable of being fulfilled by civil UAVs, the present market dominance of

military UAVs will move to civil UAVs15. This will be due to the growing number of civil applications,

which will use civil UAV technologies, that include: atmospheric, and meteorological research such

as pollution detection & control, topological mapping, weather formation studies, agricultural and

forestry, law enforcement such as border patrol and traffic monitoring, disaster/emergency

management, telecommunication relays and infrastructure inspection such as pipeline and power

line monitoring.

The area of civil UAVs has unique challenges and solutions. It should be treated as a separate area

of research, due to their uniqueness. Civil UAVs are not just another branch in the aerospace

industry. The civil UAV relationship with other aerospace areas is similar to that between manned

aircraft and spacecraft, where both share certain technologies yet meet very different challenges.

Civil UAVs will be expected to fly continuously for a number of months at various altitudes

consistent with their applications providing the required services. These are exceptional

requirements and their challenges are very distinct. In addition, these are requirements that no

other platform presently carries out, nor is expected to carry out, except for satellites, in some

specific cases.

It can be explained that this shift to civil UAVs will be due to technological maturity together with

falling costs and acceptance by society of civil UAVs16. The United Kingdom Civil Aviation Authority

expects17 that UAVs will be commonplace and will share controlled airspace with manned aircraft.

Furthermore, due to the rising awareness in UAVs worldwide, several efforts are in progress to

integrate the UAV operations routinely and safely into civil airspace. This vision of integration is

already beginning to materialise around the world with the operation of military UAVs outside of

segregated areas and into controlled airspace18. A number of civilian and paramilitary applications

are emerging, with many civil operating concepts under development. It was reported19 that after

the Kosovo conflict, Eurocontrol asked the German research company IABG20 to prepare a report

looking at ways to manage UAVs in commercial airspace. The European Commission funded the

USICO project, which laid the initial foundations for the integration of civil UAVs into controlled

15 ISTECS JOURNAL, V (2004) 55-64 Ref. [ 1] 16 See Ref. [Error! Reference source not found.] 17 UK Civil Aviation Authority, Ref. [ 2] 18 The Balkan experience – Bosnia and Kosovo 19 www.Airtrafficmanagement.net - “Controlling empty aircraft”, Autumn 2004 20 See Ref. [ 4]



airspace – see section 3.2 on page 94.

Elsewhere, civil UAVs have become recognized as the aeronautical industry’s next generation

solution to many of society’s needs. In the United States, NASA, as well as consortiums of leading

manufacturers are heavily involved in assuring that the path to civil UAV operation at all altitudes is

a short one21.

Europe aims to double current manned air traffic capacity by the year 202022. Examining these

aims, for controlled manned air traffic one can immediately appreciate the complexity of introducing

civil UAVs into the controlled airspace. As the vision of global interoperability23 takes form with

manned aircraft flying in controlled airspace, the vision of global interoperability will hold true for

civil UAVs and their operations also flying in controlled airspace.

These civil UAV challenges are conducive to innovation and it is expected that many of the brilliant minds from across Europe will be attracted to the fascinating world of civil UAVs and their applications.

Civil UAVs include highly sophisticated multidisciplinary technologies.

A strong leadership and a balanced representation of stakeholders from government, industry, research and the European Commission are a condition sine qua non24 for instilling and implementing the civil UAV strategy for Europe.

The civil UAV programme will stimulate pan-European activity that will be based on partnership and

co-operation throughout all its phases.

As with all high technology industries, long-term research and development is the fuel to reach the future.

For example, the overall goals of future civil UAVs, are aimed to make civil UAVs more compact,

economical and able to carry powerful payloads. When combined with reliability and extended flight

time they become agile and effective mobile and flexible scientific platforms. Research in achieving

compact, economical civil UAVs carrying the required sensors will be jeopardised by placing

emphasis on immediate economic gain and not on the long-term research and development, which

21 See Ref. [ 46] 22 4th Integrated CNS Conference NASA Glenn Research Centre, Ref. [ 18] 23 See Ref. [ 52] - Global Interoperability: Prerequisite for future growth in air transport and definitions on page172. Recent flight trials have shown that an innovative Air Traffic Management concept called Tailored Arrivals can improve efficiency and reduce noise and emissions when aircraft land. In Tailored Arrivals, clearance instructions are transmitted electronically to arriving aircraft, so that pilots and controllers don’t have to engage in multiple voice communications. Linked directly to an aircraft’s Flight Management System, the electronic data guide the aircraft on a steady descent profile along the most efficient path to its destination. 24 Indispensable condition – a condition without which the civil UAV roadmap will be nigh on impossible to implement



is needed.

The future strength of European research is dependent on a high-quality generation of researchers.

Advances in the design and production of miniaturised systems will lead to the development of a

wealth of superior and effective devices. These range from complex next-generation

microprocessors and high-speed digital signal processors, to specific chips for 3-D scene and

object rendering. These will further facilitate the development of very complex sophisticated

electronic/mechanical or micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMs) such as intelligent, adapting

flight control computers to morphing civil UAVs. The range, diversity and complexity of many of

these systems provide a unique challenge from the point of view of the civil UAV market. It is

readily appreciated here that the potential spin-offs are numerous and varied. The technological base that will be available will be tremendous.

The Lisbon and Barcelona summit meetings set goals for Europe to strive

and become “the most competitive knowledge society in the world”.

Investing in research and development will make Europe more economically competitive.

Knowledge has been recognised as a driver of economic growth. Technological progress and the

globalisation of the economy have increased the importance of human skills in economies (see

Berman25 et al., 1998). Thus, Europe’s investments directed at high technology industries, will

indirectly affect the research and development institutes and learning centres increasing Europe’s

technological infrastructure, encouraging economic growth and technical expertise. Europe’s skill-

base will be widened with the skilled workforce produced. This has been proven in countries

promoting apprenticeships, such as Germany and Austria. The knowledge generated by

investments, ultimately pays for itself, and it is this skilled workforce that becomes sought after.

Civil UAVs are knowledge-intensive technologies and include a wide range of sophisticated

disciplines. By formulating a pan-European civil UAV effort, a combination of research expertise

coupled with industrial experience will be put in place. The know-how gained through practical

experience and the know-who gained through research personnel networking, when combined,

delivers an exceptional economic potential.

According to Ref. [ 1], approximately 100 European Universities and numerous research institutions

and industries in Europe are actively engaged in UAV development. Integrating Europe by a coordinated effort in civil UAV technologies will increase Europe’s ability to create jobs and


25 Ref. [ 13]


sustainable growth. This will also counter the lack of cohesion and fragmentation of individual civil

UAV efforts presently taking place, which may be stemming the full benefits possible.

Fostering the entrepreneurial spirit and innovation will make a still stronger economy that can create quality jobs and protect social welfare systems, throughout the aerospace industry and its supply chain. SMEs will be able to easily participate, since the technologies involved are very varied with room for innovation and novel approaches.

In a knowledge-based economy, equipping people with the right knowledge and skills is crucial to

maintaining high and sustainable levels of employment and stability – see Figure 2-3. This in turn,

will also improve productivity in the long term and will help determine Europe’s quality of life,

working conditions and the overall competitiveness of industries and services – see Figure 2-4.

FIGURE 2-3 MODEL OF KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY

Technological innovation is important as the generator of new products, services and processes.

The innovation that will come about when solving and dealing with civil UAV applications will further

drive the present European economy through expansion of current industrial activity combined with

entrepreneurship, spin-offs, start-ups, other businesses and a healthy competition. These are

growth factors that will lever parts of the aerospace industry into new motion and economic



development, which will be brought about due to the various new employment activities created –

see Figure 2-5. Civil UAVs are not only a disruptive innovative technology with a very wide range of

disciplines, but do not need high capital investments. This opens opportunities to all interested to

participate in these technologies.

FIGURE 2-4 PROJECTED CIVIL UAVS APPLICATIONS26 AND BENEFITS

Strategic coordination andimplementation, of the civilUAV roadmap, will bond anew European groupfostering additional futureEuropean interaction,further strengthening theEuropean Union.

The 2005 key figures show that EU R&D intensity is close to stagnation. Growth of R&D investment

as a percentage of GDP has been slowing down since 2000 and only grew 0.2% between 2002 and

2003. Europe devotes a much lower share of its wealth to R&D than

the US and Japan (1.93% of GDP in the EU in 2003, as compared to

2.59% in the US and 3.15% in Japan) – see Figure 2-6. While China,

has lower R&D intensity (1.31% of GDP in 2003) it grew at about 10%

per year between 1997 and 2002. If these trends in the EU and China

continue, China will be spending the same amount of GDP on

research as the EU in 2010 – about 2.2%.


26 See Ref. [ 72]


FIGURE 2-5 CIVIL UNMANNED AIR VEHICLE – NATURAL CONTINUATION TO HI-TECH AIR TRANSPORT

Likewise, Europe lags in high technology27 relative to the U.S. and Japan. In addition, it has been

stated that, “It is still more difficult than it need be for scientists in several countries to cooperate in

research” – see Ref. [ 14, 16]. To amend this, the European Commission28 has decided to invest

3% of the GDP aligning itself with America and Japan.

FIGURE 2-6 INVESTMENT IN RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT - SEE REF. [ 14]

The European civil UAV programme will complement the European “Quality of Life” programme,

reinforcing Europe's research facilities, and optimising their use. Furthermore, it will promote

networking between user groups, industry, researchers and their relevant resources. The human

infrastructure will be strengthened through this networking, allowing convergence and mobility of

resources. It will respond to the lack of interest in the field of aerospace, “It is a known fact that

27 See Ref. [ 14] – “Closing the technology gap” 28 See Ref. [ 54] – “Science and technology, the key to Europe's future”



aerospace workers are in high demand and there is a shortage across the world29”.

The three EarthObservation summitsthat took place to datestrengthen the need forcivil UAVs – see section 2.3.5

Concern has also been mounting for sometime that Europe might not be best equipped to respond

to the challenges facing higher education in the 21st century. This concern has to be understood in

the context of the goals of Lisbon and Barcelona. Europe’s universities carried out so much in the past to enrich our planet’s academic life. In the past, Europe led the world in terms of dealing with diseases and in enhancing human life through its technological achievements.

However, Europe cannot just live off its laurels! Recently most of the Nobel Prizes were not

awarded to Europe. The next generation of the world’s scholars are more inclined to move to pursue the challenge of research in America, the often-termed “brain drain” . These are worrying developments for Europe.

Civil UAV research and development in Europe will be able to act as an

attractor of talent from all over the world, rather than watching the present “brain-drain”.

This will also support the conclusions of the conference, “Brain Gain – the Instruments”, which took

place in The Hague 29-30 September 200430. The civil UAV programme will promote innovation,

across Europe. Encouraging innovation is essential for European enterprises to be competitive, and

is one of the main objectives of research policies. Where technology-based innovation is

concerned, enterprise and research policies are mutually enriching. This has a direct positive effect

on the economy.

Europe should not hesitate to invest in civil UAV technologies, a growth area with benefits too great to miss.

By investing in people and skills, manufacturing and service industries will have the highly skilled

workers they need and the European economy will be strengthened.

These technologies, when implemented, will drive the air transport

fatalities down, in line with the ACARE statement for safety31, since civil

UAVs need inherent safety such as: collision avoidance systems32,

highly sophisticated navigational systems that will also include

autonomous takeoff, navigation to destination and finally landing at the destination. The

29 See Ref. [ 8], [ 85], [ 86] 30 See ref. [ 15] 31 See ACARE – “THE CHALLENGE OF SAFETY” – Vision 2020



technologies involved in bringing about fully autonomous civil UAVs will have a dramatic positive

effect on transport avionics and Air Traffic Management. The fine meshing of all these technologies

will make use of the pan-European potential and will cause a modernisation of concepts and

approaches to future challenges, throughout research institutes, industry and academia.

European society will greatly progress through the positive results expected from all the

applications involved, such as: monitoring emissions into the atmosphere, reliable long-term

weather forecasts, which will allow water and other critical resources to be managed and

conserved. Employment of a skilled workforce across the European continent will occur, with SMEs

easily finding their place in these new disruptive technologies. Due to its innovative nature, the

entry to the civil UAV market is not limited to established 1st tier aerospace companies, but allows

even 3rd and 4th tier companies with their associated supply chains to contribute and enjoy the

benefits of these technological developments.

At the Gothenburg Summit in June 2001, the European Council

endorsed its first strategy on sustainable development, following a

Commission Communication on "A Sustainable Europe for a Better World: A European Union Strategy for Sustainable Development". In this document, the Commission calls for "establishing by 2008 a European capacity for global monitoring of environment and security". Civil UAVs are an ideal first candidate for this!

Accuracy and data acquisition availability provided by civil UAVs will be one of the main advantages over present remote sensing techniques.

Environment and Earth scientific missions require data gathering over extended periods. Collecting

this data is presently performed through very expensive33 albeit somewhat dated satellite

technology or inadequate manned flights. Both are limited due to the period of time that the

acquisition system has to acquire the data. Satellites pass over the area of interest with a very short

time period at the locality being studied34. Their orbits are predetermined and very constrained.

Manned flight is limited due to repetitive tasks causing pilot fatigue. Civil UAVs however, do not

suffer these limitations, since they can fly at the altitude required by the application and can

produce much higher data rates than satellites, due their proximity to the required zone. A civil UAV

can loiter35 for long periods. When these civil UAVs carry the necessary payloads, they become

32 ACARE is to meet 30-31 May 2005 to discuss issues of Air transport, ATC, Safety and security and unification of Europe’s potential.

The EU civil UAV roadmap fits into this framework superbly. 33 Micro-satellites are being developed to minimise the costs involved in “traditional” satellite technologies 34 LEO type orbits, which are needed due to the required proximity to the Earth’s surface. 35 Loiter is defined as the ability to remain above a given area.



very powerful mobile scientific platforms. As payload sensor technology becomes smaller, cheaper

and yet more powerful, the civil UAV option becomes ever more attractive. For example, the civil

UAVs can fly through toxic gases or very close to volcanic activities, with no danger to humans

involved, repeating the operation as many times as is necessary.

NASA held an intensive workshop on the utilisation of UAVs for global climate change research36,

which is yet another application that replaces manned aircraft or low orbiting satellites. There is a

shift towards using civil UAVs in replacing manned aircraft in the D3 roles, but more importantly in

complementing satellites and in some cases the preference is a civil HALE UAV37 over micro-

satellites and nano-satellites.

The civil UAVs offer various economic applications such as alternative high altitude communication

platforms or platforms that allow monitoring dangerous locales, for example: from investigations into

landslides, volcano monitoring, land slippage, weather monitoring and

gas pollution emissions to sea coral depletion studies in distant atolls or

even wildlife estimation validation across oceans or African plains.

Once operational, civil UAVs, will offer economic flexibility and scientific

superiority over other similar possible methods. The present overall

strengths and weaknesses for civil UAV technologies compared to other

technologies for remote sensing can be readily appreciated by

examining Figure 2-7. This will change as civil UAV technologies

improve with research and development.

In brief, it can be stated that civil UAVs fulfil five major niches:

Civil UAV transport aircraft

Scientific and Earth Observation

Surveillance

Satellite complement

Emergencies

36 See Ref. [ 46] 37 At present, there is very little choice in HALE UAVs civil or other.



FIGURE 2-7 PRESENT STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES OF CURRENT CIVIL UAV TECHNOLOGIES 38

2.2 PRESENT APPLICATIONS

Current use of civil UAVs is minimal, due to safety, cost and operational constraints. The civil UAVs

presently used are military UAVs employed in civilian type roles, which further confines their use.

This is due to the constraints39 placed by the military (who own the system), coupled with

constraints placed by the local ATC.

The most recently published utilisation of military UAVs in a civilian role is the use of UAVs during

the recent Tsunami disaster. Indian UAVs were flown in search and rescue missions locating

stranded people and saving numerous lives.

2.2.1 Present Law Enforcement Applications Authorities say that the Picayune Police Department, in Mississippi, is one of the first agencies in

the United States to use unmanned aircraft to combat crime40.

Similarly, Belgium patrols its coastline using military UAVs, since civil

UAVs are not presently available and the U.S. uses paramilitary UAVs

to augment their patrols along the Mexican border.

38 Remote Sensing applications - See Ref. [ 60] 39 These UAVs are military equipment loaned out to perform civilian type roles. They are restricted in the way they are operated and in

the use to which they are put. 40 Air-O-Space International, a service company, Uses UAVs in Partnership with Picayune Police Department to Fight War on Drugs,

November 28, 2004. See Ref. [ 29, 33]



2.2.2 A Civil UAV Looks inside Volcanic Craters41 The latest thermal imagery from the St Helen’s crater, near Washington42, indicated that in certain

areas, the temperature was as high as 570 degrees Celsius, with signs that the magma was

continuing to rise. There were also significant increases in carbon dioxide and other gaseous

emissions, rendering such a mission too dangerous for manned flight. Under these conditions, the Silver Fox UAV was recommended as the ideal tool to look inside the crater on behalf of researchers. Here again, due to the lack of civil UAVs, a military UAV was

recommended.

Volcanic studies have been carried out in Japan using Yamaha’s RMAX helicopter, a civil UAV43.

The inspections of the erupting Mt. Usu on Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido were made in 2000

– current manned flight in the area are under restriction. It is hoped that data obtained from these

flights will allow preventive measures against landslide and mudslide damage.

2.2.3 Present Agricultural Applications Yamaha has been providing crop spraying civil rotary UAVs for some years now with its Yamaha’s

RMAX civil UAV.

Direct benefits of thesetechniques will allowsuperior and efficientwater and fertilizer use.In addition, it providesfor higher crop yields.

In September 2002, Stan Herwitz, professor of Earth Science at Clark

University in Worcester, Massachusetts, together

with NASA, carried out the first-ever proof-of-

concept imaging mission above a 3500-acre

commercial coffee plantation in Hawaii. The

project tested the commercial44 use of a solar-powered civil

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), NASA's solar powered Pathfinder-

Plus UAV. The civil UAV was equipped with a transponder for routine supervision by regional air

traffic controllers and flew in U.S. national airspace.

High-resolution colour and multi-spectral digital imaging payloads were used to transmit near real-

time data and images to the data application ground control station. The multi-spectral

quantification data of canopy colour was correlated to mature fruit harvest from certain fields with

significant fruit display on the tree canopy exterior. In addition, the colour images were used for

41 See Ref. [ 34] 42 FLIR Systems, Vol. 3, Issue 7 – Infrared from the Front Line October 2004 [www.flir.com/imaging/Articles/FOV/] 43 Japan uses a certified and regulated civil rotary UAV for agricultural crop spraying. 44 See Ref. [ 38]



mapping invasive weed outbreaks and for revealing irrigation and fertilization irregularities. The

spectral imagery received in the project and the civil UAV that obtained them are shown in Figure

2-8. In addition, the correlation between the data received to actual crop conditions is described

graphically in Figure 2-9.

FIGURE 2-8 KAUAI COFFEE PLANTATION - COMPOSITE OF HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY45

FIGURE 2-9 KAUAI COFFEE PLANTATION – RIPENESS MAPPING CORRELATION

2.3 FUTURE APPLICATIONS

This section briefly overviews the numerous applications where civil UAVs will contribute. The

applications listed here are in no particular order of importance.

As more people are exposed to the subject of civil UAVs, an ever-

increasing number of potential civil UAV users, is emerging with

varied requirements for civil UAV applications. Some of these

applications are almost possible with present UAV technologies,

albeit military, and others require further technological progress. There are also applications, which


45 Example of colour-infrared digital image of coffee fields captured in flight by DuncanTech payload. See Ref. [ 37]


require long-term research and development, in order to bring the required technologies into focus.

The main civil UAV applications, discussed today are shown below and may be grouped as follows:

2.3.1 Satellite Complement Civil HALE UAVs will be able to augment satellites used in monitoring the Earth’s environment.

Scientific missions are “data collection” intensive and civil UAVs provide the platform which when

combined with appropriate sensors offer a solution to those scientific missions. The civil UAV

systems will effectively connect local research to “global tools”; a high-flying civil UAV will facilitate

atmospheric data collection to local scientific research institutes. Civil UAVs will also permit highly

effective repetition of data collection and operation tailoring.

Satellite operations can be grouped into five main applications: communications, broadcasting,

navigation, Earth Observation, and science related activities. The costs involved in putting a full-

scale satellite into orbit are high46 – see Figure 2-13, and recently much effort has been invested in

micro-satellites. These small satellites are cheaper than the full-scale satellite both in production

46 See Ref [ 49]



and in deployment. However, they are still expendable and the technology onboard has to be

“frozen” some years ahead to allow proper system verification and validation. For example, the

sensors that civil HALE UAVs will carry will be truly state-of-the-art and not “past-state-of-the-art”

due to the technological freeze required prior to the system verification and validation process. Civil

HALE UAVs will perform the tasks, which presently use micro-satellite technology, more efficiently.

Civil HALE UAVs costs are far less than those of satellites, even when considering the support

logistics needed to assure that a civil HALE is constantly providing service – see Figure 2-12 on

page 40. Progress in technology, where necessary, will be readily incorporated into the civil HALE

UAV platform, when it lands for routine maintenance. Civil HALE UAV multiple takeoff and landing

safety requirements will be much lower than the launch costs associated with a single launch of an

individual micro-satellite and its associated safety requirements. In order to appreciate the

difficulties involved one must appreciate the atmospheric model, which is shown in Figure 2-10.

Satellites have difficulties measuring at low altitudes in the atmosphere, and for LEO47 satellites,

can only take measurement for a limited period for every orbital pass. Civil HALE UAVs, however,

do not have this limitation. Polar orbiting satellites also have a similar problem of limited interval per

orbital pass and are not stationary above the point of interest.

FIGURE 2-10 THE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL

47 LEO is the acronym for Low Earth Orbit.



Geostationary satellites are found above the equator where the atmosphere is at its densest, and

begin to trace zigzag figures of “8” about their station keeping position once their energy source is

depleted. An added problem is that the “belt” of geostationary satellites is becoming increasingly

more crowded as more of these types of satellites are placed in orbit. The gravitational forces

acting on these types of satellites are not enough to pull them into orbit and so they remain

suspended above Earth – see Figure 2-11.

FIGURE 2-11 SNAPSHOT OF GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITES AROUND THE EQUATOR

In addition, civil HALE UAVs may be used to calibrate satellite data or even enhance

measurements where required, since they fly at a much lower altitude than satellites, and as

possible relays from ground may be used to receive and transmit accurate data, overcoming

atmospheric related distortions. This alone will increase the communications bandwidth of the

satellite system. These are just some of the advantages, which civil HALE UAVs have over

satellites.

What is more important is that, similar to all systems, satellites sometimes have malfunctions48, which may cause them to be abandoned completely49 or an attempt using

the US space shuttle to repair them is carried out. The costs involved and the lack of adequate recovery options for satellite systems are prohibitive when compared to civil UAV systems.

For civil UAVs, costs are calculated as in terms of flight hour costs, whereas for satellites, due to

the nature of their use, costs are calculated as in terms of cost per day. Note that the costs for

48 The space shuttle was used numerous times to deal with malfunctioning satellites – in 1984 the crew of the Shuttle attempted to

recover the Solar-Max satellite, but failed. In 1992 the STS 49 – Endeavour carried out a capture, repair and re-deploy the INTELSAT VI (F3) satellite In 1998 CNN reported that Japan was trying to reposition a 46.2 billion yen ($370 million) communications satellite after it failed to reach its proper orbit. These are but a few of the many examples of satellite malfunctions reported.

49 http://www.spacetoday.net, Tue, Sep 23, 2003, 1:36 AM ET (0536 GMT): Loral announced Monday that it has declared the Telstar 4 communications satellites a total loss, three days after reporting a power problem with the spacecraft. The spacecraft experienced a short circuit of its primary power bus on Friday morning, causing the spacecraft to cease operations.



satellites are a function of design life, which means that for a long design life, where costs per day

are lower, the user will suffer from old technologies. This is in stark contrast to civil UAVs, which will

offer the latest onboard technologies and associated information.

FIGURE 2-12 ESTIMATED FLIGHT HOUR COST – HALE

FIGURE 2-13 SPACECRAFT COST-PER-OPERATIONAL DAY AS A FUNCTION OF THE DESIGN LIFETIME50

50 Source Ref. [ 49], p.14



2.3.2 Navigational Aids The placement of a civil HALE UAV in a known position may in the future complement present and

future navigation systems, or may act as an additional navigational aid. This civil UAV can carry out

a three-fold navigational aid:

Transmitting corrected navigation satellite ephemeris data through lesser layers of atmosphere than the satellite51, hence augmenting communication bandwidth requirements, through lower error correction overheads – see Figure 2-14.

Act as an independent pseudo satellite transmitting navigational data to users – similar to space or ground-based navigational aids.

Air Traffic Control / Air Traffic Management Aids, where Civil UAVs, using SAR52 or similar technologies, can augment present ATC/ATM radar systems enhancing future collision avoidance systems. Once flown to the required position civil HALE UAVs will be able to monitor air traffic from above, transmitting required data through secured data links to the ATC stations below. In addition, and because of their flexibility the civil UAVs will be capable of carrying out other tasks simultaneously.

FIGURE 2-14 SATELLITE - CIVIL HALE UAV - EARTH RELAY

51 One of the key error factors in navigation systems is ionosphere scintillation of the signal. 52 Synthetic Aperture Radar



2.3.3 Telecommunications Telecommunications based on satellite technologies are predicted to increase – see Figure 2-15. In

addition, studies comparing satellite, terrestrial and high altitude platforms (HAPs), where civil

HALE UAVs are used were carried out. The results of these studies are summarised in Table 2-1

page 45. Even taking into account the possible errors, due to the date the information was

gathered, the rising trend is still distinct. Europe initiated and sponsored through ESA53 two major

parallel studies to lay the groundwork for a possible European Space Weather Applications

Programme. One of the main problems associated with satellites is “space weather”, which causes

reduced life or loss of satellites.

FIGURE 2-15 ESA SPACE WEATHER PROGRAMME STUDY MARKET ANALYSIS54

To reduce space weather effects, satellite hardening and other techniques are used, increasing the

satellite costs. Civil HALE UAVs are expected to suffer much less from space weather, since they

will use the atmosphere as a shield. In addition, they will use their lower altitude to monitor Earth

more accurately than the satellite – see Figure 2-16. Moreover, communication outages due to

adverse weather and ionospheric scatter disrupt communications with satellites.

High altitude platforms (HAP), will offer alternative communications solutions55. They will be able to

provide state-of-the-art communication relay stations. The civil UAVs can act as relay stations

between themselves providing an alternative telecommunication link to the underwater cables

presently in use – see Figure 2-19.

53 Between 1999 and 2001 - http://esa-spaceweather.net/spweather/esa_initiatives/spweatherstudies/spweatherstudies.html 54 ESYS-ESYS-2000260-RPT-02 Issue 1.1 28 September 2001.



Other important advantages of HAP systems deployment capabilities are their flexibility due to

relative ease of reconfigurability, and lower56 operating cost. From a communications point of view,

they possess low propagation delay, high elevation angles, broad coverage, broadcast/multicast

capability, broadband capability, with an added feature of the ability to reposition in emergencies,

etc… However, some disadvantages will have to be dealt with for example: station monitoring and

the associated problems with new technologies, such as the stabilization of the on-board antenna.

A very interesting feature is that for the same bandwidth allocation, terrestrial systems need a huge

number of base stations to provide the needed coverage, while GEO satellites face limitations on

the minimum cell size projected on the Earth's surface and LEO satellites suffer from handover57

problems. Therefore, HAPs seem to be a very good design compromise58.

FIGURE 2-16 LOWER ALTITUDE TO MONITOR EARTH - AVOIDS SPACE TO EARTH ATMOSPHERIC DISTORTION

AeroVironment in the U.S.A. is currently testing a UAV equipped with a cellular antenna to

communicate with phones and laptops - see Ref. [ 67].

Internet communications providing real-time video and telemetry downlinks for science and industry

applications will become widespread as the civil UAV technologies become easily accessible.

Commercial imaging will be commonplace much akin to present day satellite images.

55 See Ref. [ 31] 56 Lower cost relative to satellites 57 Handover is the procedure of switching from one satellite to another without losing the communications link, or losing it for a very short

time - resynchronising with the new satellite takes time and communications bandwidth 58 See Ref. [ 55]



Currently studies are taking place to establish the effects of electromagnetic radiation (EMR)

caused by cell phones on health. It is thought that using HAP based antennas will attenuate the

overall EMR.

FIGURE 2-17 HALE - STATIONARY HIGH ALTITUDE RELAY PLATFORM CONCEPT

Lighter than air (LTA) High Altitude Platforms (HAP) – see Figure 2-18 may complement proposed

civil HALE UAV platforms. These platforms are more difficult to position in required locations, due to

the acute constraints on the “takeoff” and “landing” phases coupled with the energy required to

counter the winds at the altitude, for station keeping. Traversing the atmosphere to the required

altitude and position is also complicated because of the inherently large surface area of the LTA

platform.

FIGURE 2-18 EXAMPLES OF LTA’S - HIGH ALTITUDE PLATFORM STATION59

59 See Ref. [ 30, 32]



TABLE 2-1 BASIC CHARACTERISTICS OF TERRESTRIAL WIRELESS, SATELLITE, AND HAPS SYSTEMS60

Issue Terrestrial wireless Satellite High Altitude Platform Availability and cost of mobile terminals

Huge cellular/PCS market drives high volumes resulting in small, low-cost, low-power units

Specialized, more stringent requirements lead to expensive bulky terminals with short battery life

Terrestrial terminals applicable

Propagation delay

Low Causes noticeable impairment in voice communications in GEO (and MEO to some extent)

Low

Health concerns with radio emissions from handsets

Low-power handsets minimize concerns

High-power handsets due to large path losses (possibly alleviated by careful antenna design)

Power levels like in terrestrial systems (except for large coverage areas)

Communications technology risk

Mature technology and well-established industry

Considerably new technology for LEOs and MEOs; GEOs still lag behind cellular/PCS in volume, cost and performance

Terrestrial wireless technology, supplemented with spot-beam antennas; if widely deployed, opportunities for specialized equipment (scanning beams to follow traffic)

Deployment timing

Deployment can be staged, substantial initial build-out to provide sufficient coverage for commercial service

Service cannot start before the entire system is deployed

One platform and ground support typically enough for initial commercial service

System growth Cell-splitting to add capacity requiring system reengineering: easy equipment upgrade/repair,

System capacity increased only by adding satellites; hardware upgrade only with replacement of satellites

Capacity increase through spot-beam resizing, and additional platforms; equipment upgrades relatively easy

System complexity due to motion of components

Only user terminals are mobile

Motion of LEOs and MEOs is a major source of complexity, especially when inter-satellite links are used

Motion low to moderate (stability characteristics to be proven)

Operational complexity and cost

Well-understood High for GEOs, and especially LEOs due to continual launches to replace old or failed satellites

Some proposals require frequent landings of platforms (to refuel or to rest pilots)

60 See Ref. [ 55]



Issue Terrestrial wireless Satellite High Altitude Platform Radio channel "quality"

Rayleigh fading limits distance and data rate, path loss up to 50 dB/decade; good signal quality through proper antenna placement

Free-space-like channel with Ricean fading; path loss roughly 20 dB/decade; GEO distance limits spectrum efficiency

Free-space-like channel at distances comparable to terrestrial

Indoor coverage Substantial coverage achieved

Generally not available (high-power signals in Iridium to trigger ringing only for incoming calls)

Substantial coverage possible

Breadth of geographical coverage

A few kilometres per base station

Large regions in GEO (up to the 34% of the earth surface); global for LEO and MEO

Hundreds of kilometres per platform (up to 200km)

Cell diameter 0.1–1 km 50km in the case of LEOs. More than 400km for GEOs

1–10 km

Shadowing from terrain

Causes gaps in coverage; requires additional equipment

Problem only at low elevation angles

Similar to satellite

Communications and power infra-structure; real estate

Numerous base stations to be sited, powered, and linked by cables or microwaves

Single gateway collects traffic from a large area

Comparable to satellite

Esthetical issues and health concerns with towers and antennas

Many sites required for coverage and capacity; “smart” antennas might make them more visible; continued public debates expected

Earth stations located away from populated areas

Similar to satellite

Public safety concern about flying objects

Not an issue Occasional concern about space junk falling to Earth

Large craft floating or flying overhead can raise significant objections

Cost Varies More then $200 million for a GEO system. Some billion for a LEO system (e.g., $5 billion for Iridium, $9 billion for Teledesic)

Unspecified (probably more than $50 million), but less than the cost required to deploy a terrestrial network with many base stations

Employing civil UAV communication using spatial division multiple access (SDMA), will allow

another method of increasing communication link efficiency. SDMA divides the bandwidth

frequency as a function of geographical space. By using this technique, identical frequencies can

be used for users situated in different geographical locations. Currently the National Institute of

Standards and Technology (NIST) of the U.S. is about to release an atomic clock the size of a grain

of rice and powered by conventional AA batteries. Frame time synchronisation of mobile phone cell



base stations will be easily achievable by adding these atomic clocks to the civil HALE UAV. These

atomic clocks act as pulse generators for the cell base stations. Using this same technique, in the

future, the system can be further developed to use civil HALE UAVs to communicate via an inter-

HALE” network. Once this system is operable, considerable reduction in bandwidth requirements

will be achieved across the globe. This will be relatively cheaper to implement than the LEO inter-

satellites proposed – see Ref [ 43].

Under sea telecommunications cables require constant very deep-sea diving robots to maintain the

repeaters performance. “As the demand for undersea cables continues to grow and cable maintenance

becomes ever more complex61”, a system based on the HALE/HAP technologies, could complement

the existing undersea cable network. Today rerouting audio traffic via satellite when the undersea

cable is severed is routine, so why not have HAPs (HALEs or LTAs) carry this out more efficiently?

FIGURE 2-19 ALTERNATIVE TELECOMMUNICATION LINK TO UNDERWATER CABLES

2.3.4 GMES Civil UAVs can participate in the GMES62 project by offering high-resolution images – as “low flying

stationary satellites” or pseudo-satellites. These civil UAV technologies will offer cheaper

alternatives to satellite technologies. They will have the inherent advantage of less expensive

technological updates with the latest technology available soon after development. More important

is the image resolution obtained from civil HALE UAVs compared to satellites. Whereas satellite

imagery has to compensate for atmospheric scintillation and other anomalies by means of on board

processors, civil UAVs have far less atmospheric distortion to compensate. This makes them far

more effective in GMES applications. Once these technological advantages are coupled with cost,

61 Universal Jointing Consortium for undersea cables 62 GMES is a joint initiative of the European Commission and the European Space Agency, designed to establish a European capacity

for the provision and use of operational information for Global Monitoring of Environment and Security.



civil UAVs make more efficient GMES platforms. Resolution is enhanced without the bandwidth

penalty usually associated with these applications. In addition, for the same bandwidth added

security to the data and control link may be included. This will lead to direct benefits in link budget

management that will be more efficiently used.

A major advantage civil HALE UAVs is their inherent repositioning capabilities, which satellites do not have63.

2.3.5 Scientific and Earth Observation In July of 2003, the first Earth Observation Summit was held in Washington, DC USA, initially with

representatives from 34 nations and by the second meeting, this increased to 61 representatives.

The purpose of the summit was to:

Promote the development of a comprehensive, coordinated, and sustained Earth observation system or systems among governments and the international community to understand and address global environmental and economic challenges.

Begin a process to develop a conceptual framework and implementation plan for building this comprehensive, coordinated, and sustained Earth observation system or systems.

Monitoring and mapping the magnetic, radiological, gravimetric signals of the Earth will give

scientists a better understanding of weather and atmospheric patterns.

Weather has an enormous influence on human activities. Agriculture needs favourable weather;

severe weather can disrupt practically any enterprise and endanger human life – e.g. Tornado,

blizzards, floods, landslides, and earthquakes and other disruptive weather. The weather affects the

economy especially when people cannot travel to work. Accurate forecasts can save lives by

providing the advanced notice necessary to take measures to protect lives and livestock.

Understanding the climate and the weather is vital and an ad-hoc team is preparing a ten-year plan

to implement the outcome of the Earth Observation meetings. The plan being formulated is to

include at least weather monitoring, climate and air quality in order to formulate the sensing

requirements to improve present day weather models and near-Earth activities.

63 Repositioning of a satellite orbit is possible, however, heavy energy and positioning penalties are incurred.



The action required is:

Significantly advance the collective ability of Earth observation

Set up an Earth Observation System – see Figure 2-20, for Europe

This is to be carried out at four unique vantage points:

Surface-based

Sub-orbital

Near space

Far space TABLE 2-2 RELATIVE IMPORTANCE - ILLUSTRATIVE LIST OF EARTH OBSERVATIONS & SOCIETAL BENEFIT AREAS64.

The benefits obtained by improving these models include: understanding the climatic behaviour

improving on short and long term weather predictions, climate prediction and the effects of

atmospheric chemistry on air quality and the environment.

64 See Ref. [ 66]



FIGURE 2-20 REQUIRED ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDINGS ABOVE EUROPE65

2.3.5.1 Earth Observation

Europe should create a specialized plan to optimise its global observations of the atmosphere, land and oceans.

The objective of Earth observation is to provide information of the Earth’s atmosphere that will

enable us to understand the Earth we live on and facilitate the reduction

in loss of life and property damage. This can be carried out by: more

accurate weather prediction, a more thorough understanding of the

environmental effects on human health and the human impact on the

environment. This will allow scientists to understand, assess, predict,

and mitigate these effects. In addition, efficient support of sustainable agriculture and forestry, and

prevention of land degradation will be made possible. A superior ability to predict ecological

forecasts will be achieved, through further modelling made possible by measurements that are

more accurate.

In addition, by monitoring the Earth’s resources, steps may be taken in order to safeguard and

manage Earth resources and protect our finely balanced ecosystem. Improving the data collection

process will lead to an increased understanding of how hazards evolve, and will permit mitigation of

their possible damage. The monitoring process will involve a continuous interaction between the

scientific research community that is building and refining the atmospheric models, and the data

acquisition communities. This will ease the overall definition of critical scientific and engineering

issues. A wide range of concepts for national and international observation systems will be

examined. These concepts will be validated, in order to refine the data acquisition and other system

aspects, by means of modelling and simulations. This will help in identifying critical parameters and

variables, including such elements as water in all its phases, wind, aerosols, and chemical


65 Source - European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting


constituents and other variables related to phenomena which is present in near-Earth space, all on

spatial and temporal scales relevant to forecasts and related applications. Hurricanes and other

climatic phenomena should be intensively studied to provide a deeper understanding of their

sources and behaviour.

FIGURE 2-21 EXAMPLE OF AN ATMOSPHERIC MODEL66

Models such as that present in Figure 2-21 could be made more accurate once the data acquired

through the Earth Observation Monitoring system is correlated.

Furthermore, a correlation of the Earth's surface data obtained for geological studies could be made

in order to identify possible links.

2.3.5.2 Weather – Modelling Earth’s Climate Earth’s climatic changes have a tremendous impact on our health and daily lives, affecting the

purity of the air we breath; unexpected drought or intensive rainfall affects

agriculture, forestry, water resources, desertification, coastal area changes and

species and natural area erosion.

Civil UAVs could be used to fly operations to collect much more data on

different Earth parameters. Monitoring Earth’s designated key parameters, as scientists see them,

could allow them to evaluate critical environmental behaviour, allowing the Earth’s climate to be

modelled more precisely – see Figure 2-22.

The main aim is to minimise the negative effects of weather on human life and technology. In order


66 http://www.climatescience.gov


to achieve this, and to eventually be able to forecast key aspects of the near-Earth space

environment, progress on the following aspects should be attained:

an understanding of the physical events and patterns of the near-Earth system so that models can be developed to facilitate enhanced prediction of weather behaviour

Develop an infrastructure that will refine the present weather research models Permit long-term weather forecast – 5-10 years forward Acquire current data to validate and refine the weather models Atmospheric observations and modelling of the effects of the stratosphere on various

aspects of climate Analysis to determine how stratospheric change, will affect the chemistry of the

troposphere. Develop strategies to use the models in order to minimise the adverse effects of weather

on humans

FIGURE 2-22 WEATHER DATA AND INFORMATION CRITICAL TO REALIZING OTHER SOCIETAL BENEFITS67

NASA is studying experimental use of UAVs that fly slowly around thunderstorms allowing better

studies of lightning and other weather hazards. NASA has already been using Proteus, a

technologically advanced manned aircraft for their Crystal-Face project – see Figure 2-23, amongst

other older manned aircrafts – see Ref. [ 36]. Understanding the production of cirrus clouds in the

upper tropospheric is seen as essential for the successful modelling of the Earth’s climate. These

flights could easily be carried out by civil HALE UAVs or made possible through extensive use of

civil UAVs specially designed for weather data collection.

67 Improving weather forecasting, a technical reference document



FIGURE 2-23 DATA FROM NASA’S CRYSTAL-FACE PROJECT68

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program was created in 1989 with funding from

the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Sponsored by DOE's Office of Science and managed by the

Office of Biological and Environmental Research, ARM is a multi-laboratory, inter-agency program,

and is a key contributor to national and international research efforts related to global climate

change. In addition, ARM Enhanced Shortwave Experiment (ARESE), flew unique UAVs in

“stacked formation”, in order to carry out measurements69.

2.3.5.3 Global Warming the Need for Monitoring Greenhouse gases would not be the only data being monitored for global warming. The number of

known parameters that are still not understood far outweighs those understood and are not being

monitored; yet those monitored are associated with the phenomena known as global warming. Of

the twelve parameters measured for atmospheric behaviour, only three are said to be understood –

see Figure 2-24.

68 See Ref. [ 36] 69 See Ref. [ 62]



FIGURE 2-24 UNDERSTANDING OF ATMOSPHERIC VARIABLES70

2.3.5.4 Oceanography

In order to save lives in the future, it is extremely important to gather geological information on volcanoes.

The oceans71 cover 70% of the world's surface and yet are the least explored and least understood

ecosystems on the planet. Oceans, moreover, are sensitive indicators of climate change and

environmental health. Marine areas globally are threatened with a catastrophic confluence of

pressures: over fishing, excess nutrients from sewage and agricultural runoff, toxic pollutants from

giant urban centres, habitat loss, and climate change. In recent years, scientists and policy makers

have been working toward a better understanding of what it will take to

reclaim and protect this most remarkable source of natural wealth.

Civil UAVs could contribute to allow correlation of data obtained by

seaborne platforms from oceanography institutes, with data acquired by

the civil UAV platforms, permitting a comprehensive study of cause and

effect. This will eventually lead to more accurate Earth climatic and atmospheric modelling, thus

increasing the precision of climatic forecast.

70 http://www.climatescience.gov 71 http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/members/2004/112-8/focus.html



A massive volcanic seamount, which was not discovered until 1975, rises 4200 m from the sea floor to a depth of 590 m about one-third of the way between Ta'u and Rose islands at the eastern end of American Samoa. The basaltic seamount, named Vailulu'u, is considered to mark the current location of the Samoan hotspot. The summit of Vailulu'u contains a 2-km-wide, 400-m-deep oval-shaped caldera.

Turbid water above the summit shows evidence of ongoing hydrothermal plume activity.

A new volcanic cone has been growing inside the crater of Vailulu'u seamount since the last depth soundings by the US Coastguard vessel Polar Sea in April 2001, at a minimum rate of eight inches per day. A radially symmetric volcanic cone in the eastern portion of the crater displays a new volcanic summit at 708 m depth. This summit, named Nafanua, formed in a location of the crater that showed a 1000m depth before the new volcano formed – see Figure 2-25.

The growth rates monitored on the Nafanua – see Ref. [ 63] undersea volcano are sufficiently high to bring its summit from its current 600m depth to about 200m within a short period. An eruption of such a shallow volcano could cause substantial danger to navigation and coastal communities, and may involve the risk of tsunamis from potential volcano collapses. While Scripps’s institute considers this scenario as very unlikely, it suggests that scientists monitor this very active volcano. Water temperatures

FIGURE 2-25 GROWTH RATES MONITORED ON THE NAFANUA UNDERSEA VOLCANO

around the volcano can be monitored regularly by civil

UAVs, as part of an overall oceanography data

acquisition program. The data can then be transmitted

continuously to the data acquisition station, permitting

decisions to be taken to save lives.



Land Volcanic Activity Mapping

A civil UAV flying and monitoring suspected volcanoes, can provide data that can help determine the amount of gases released into the atmosphere and the causes of CO2 gas emissions. In addition, by monitoring volcanoes over a period, correlations between activities may give rise to methods of prediction of future volcanic activities.

For example: in 1986, hot CO2 gases killed 1800 persons in the region of the volcano Lake of Nyos

(Cameroon). Yet, nobody knows whether the source of the gases was the crater itself or lateral

fissures. Similar phenomena killed 37 persons in 1984. A civil UAV monitoring the region could

have changed the situation possibly saving numerous lives.

Mount Pinatubo, which lies on the Philippine island of Luzon, about 100 km northwest of Manila,

erupted in 1991. The eruption was significant in that it progressed slowly to full activity. This allowed

the volcanologists to monitor its behaviour and make successful predictions that saved many

thousands of lives and billions of dollars by timely evacuation. At the same time, the eruption

demonstrated the long-term effects that an eruption can have on a densely populated agricultural

region. Climatologists were able to predict, and then confirm, the effect of a major eruption on

global weather72.

Sea Conditions & Ice Monitoring

Civil UAVs can be used to monitor the sea and ocean in order to provide marine

institutes with: sea state, wind-sea relationships, sea and oceanic currents, leading to

better understanding of the ocean and sea behaviour. The

information may be used to better protect the oceans and seas,

through education.

Civil UAVs will also provide platforms to monitor and predict sea level height and

the effect of polar ice melting patterns. These are also thought to have an impact

on the Earth’s changing climate.

Earth Surface Measurements

Civil UAVs using SAR or differential SAR interferometry will be able to overcome the atmospheric

distortions encountered by satellite borne sensors and will permit measurements of Earth surface

distortions more accurately. In addition, the civil UAV may be brought to the same position time


72 http://www.geology.ucdavis.edu/~cowen/~GEL115/volcs2.html - Chapter Twenty: Explosive Eruptions


after time for the required period until the essential data is gathered.

Data acquisition flexibility and image processing will be greatly enhanced using civil UAVs. This is

especially true when the civil UAV will remain on site for as long as is

necessary, which is in sharp contrast to satellites that provide limited time

above the area of interest. Tremendous improvement in signal processing

techniques using PSD techniques when used in conjunction to satellite

produced images and a digital elevation map (Figure 2-31) can be achieved.

Pollution Detection

Today, pollution is far less tolerated than previously, and solutions for monitoring and cleaning are

required. Land pollution monitoring is one of the applications that can be

most readily fulfilled by civil UAVs. Fly tips and other illegal dumping can

be spotted with the offenders immediately identified. This activity will serve

society with the improvement immediately felt; the countryside will be

cleaner and Europe’s heritage kept pristine.

Pollution monitoring is one of the areas of growth for the civil UAV market since more and more

emphasis is being placed on a cleaner atmosphere.

Airborne chemical pollution detection will be made more efficient with civil UAVs and effective

corrective action made possible. Once in place, civil UAVs monitoring

pollution and other gases in the environment will provide a database

of information. This information will provide the details that will aid in

the study of the “cause and effects” of numerous phenomena across

the European continent.

Today one of the companies providing pollution maps is an Italian comp

in the Padova area; an example of a pollution map of Europe is describe

gases that need monitoring include: CO2, NO2, NOX, Methane, HFC’s,

water vapour amongst others, since they are thought to affect the climate

Acid rain is an effect of pollution, which can also be measured ac

permitting the cause and effect to be refined for future prevention – see F

SAVE DATE: 2005-12-25 - PRINT DATE: 2005-12-25 DOCNAME: UAV Roadmap Vol III SRA.doc

Once established therest of the world willalso desire such asystem.

any that monitors pollution

d in Figure 2-27. The main

Sulphur Hexafluoride and

and the ozone layer.

curately using civil UAVs,

igure 2-27.

of 192


FIGURE 2-26 CHEMICAL POLLUTION IN EUROPE73

FIGURE 2-27 A EUROPEAN POLLUTION MAP74 & ACID RAIN RISK AREAS75

Civil UAVs will be the ideal tool to monitor Europe’s gaseous pollution, pinpointing the polluters and

the type of gas being released, in addition to providing Earth science measurements.

2.3.5.5 Radiation Surveillance Civil UAVs will be able to monitor and measure the radiation more effectively than manned flight,

via miniaturised radiation sensitive sensors. These sensors can be designed76 to sample the air and

track radioactive plumes, mapping the radioactive fallout and identifying the source. By utilising civil

UAVs to carry out these missions, dangers and problems arising with manned flight will be avoided.

73 Source: http://europa.eu.int/ 74 Courtesy of TIN - Italy 75 UNEP GRID-Arendal, Ed. Hatier, Paris - European Atlas of Environment and Health project (1998), cartography, Philippe Rekacewicz

76 There exist today sensors that monitor radioactive plumes, whilst others are being developed and miniaturised – see Ref. [ 42],



FIGURE 2-28 CURRENT EUROPEAN NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS & CONTAMINATION FROM CHERNOBYL77

The Chernobyl disaster put in jeopardy the pilots that were required to fly aircrafts to measure the

radiation effects. The radiation levels were so high that within an hour of flight in the proximity of the

plume, the radiation measured on the aircraft was as high as that of the plume being measured.

It must be noted that these are only some of the problems associated with radiation measurements

using piloted aircraft.

A quick look at Figure 2-28 shows how crucial monitoring radiation is to European health.

Moreover, possible emergencies78 may arise from:

An accident in a nuclear power plant

An accident on a nuclear-powered ship or submarine

Terrorism

An accident with nuclear weapons

An accident during transportation of nuclear fuel or waste

Smuggling of nuclear materials

2.3.5.6 Hydrocarbon Spillage at Sea Oil spillage is another form of pollution, caused by tankers intentionally dumping residues into the

sea – see Figure 2-29. The challenge of monitoring oil spillage involves two basic approaches:

either a flight out to sea to identify the sources of the oil pollution once it has reached the beaches,

or more effectively the deterrence caused by civil UAVs monitoring 24/779. The latter approach will

protect beaches along Europe’s coastline with all the associated wildlife. In a civil UAV capabilities

demonstration monitoring the coast, an oil tanker was inadvertently spotted dumping oil in the sea

and was apprehended. Once civil UAV coastal and sea patrols become common, oil dumping at

77 See Ref. [ 78] 78 See Ref. [ 79] 79 24 hours a day 7 days a week.



sea is likely to lessen.

FIGURE 2-29 OIL AT SEA80 THE EFFORTS INVOLVED

2.3.5.7 GIS81 - Terrain Mapping - Landslides & Earthquakes Civil UAVs will be able to provide an “on-call” platform to supply the most up to date GIS

information. The choice of civil UAV will mainly include the HALE civil UAV type, but can even

involve small and MALE civil UAVs, to complement the civil HALE UAV. Remote sensors such as

the Light Detection And Ranging (LIDAR) data is often used to carryout validation of flood and

landslide modelling, and may be used in conjunction with the civil UAV to provide an accurate and

current data set.

The River Arno winds its way seaward through the tranquil countryside of Umbria and Tuscany, but

there is an inherent potential danger of landslides. There are more than 300 areas within Italy's

Arno Basin at high risk of landslides, and over 20 000 individual landslides have been recorded.

Italy's combination of geography, geology and climate makes it one of Europe's most landslide-

prone territories, with an average of 54 lives lost each year in the last half century82.

80 Source http://europa.eu.int/ 81 Geographic Information System - GIS 82 http://news.eoportal.org/research/050404_tuscany.html



FIGURE 2-30 GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION OF THE ARNO RIVER BASIN (LANDSAT TM7 RGB 457 COMPOSITE).

The red spots on the rightmost map of Tuscany are recorded landslides occurring in the Arno River

Basin, and are overlaid on a digital elevation model of the region.

The ESA-funded Service for Landslide Monitoring (SLAM) is being applied to the densely populated

Arno Basin. More than 350 satellite images of the region, taken by

ESA’s ERS satellites, have been combined with ground-gathered data

to generate detailed information, in order to identify and assess slope

instability and risk across 8,830 square kilometres of territory.

Civil UAVs monitoring this region can complement the data gathered

enhancing the accuracy and allowing a better understanding of when a possible landslide may

occur.

The civil UAV can offer a wide range of payloads to provide geologists with the required information on hand all the time in real time.

Many areas of landslides are inactive during dry times and move only during or following extended

periods of infiltration from rain or melting snow. Increased water pressure in the ground reduces the

overall strength of hillsides and starts a downslope movement83.

FIGURE 2-31 LANDSLIDES IN TUSCANY – INSAR ENABLES GROUND MOVEMENT DETECTION


83 See Ref. [ 64]


Landslide speed and potential destructiveness can vary widely, with some landslides moving

slowly, travelling only a few inches in many days, whilst others transforming suddenly into mud or

debris flows that travel thousands of meters in a matter of minutes, and cause massive destruction

that kill people. Careful monitoring can determine the speed of landslide movement and can detect

early indications of catastrophic movement. Using real-time data from such slides, geologists can

anticipate possible catastrophic movement. Monitoring focuses on detecting: precipitation and

ground-water conditions that could destabilise a hill slope, acceleration of slide movement, and

ground vibrations associated with movement.

2.3.6 Mineral Exploration Civil UAVs using Hyper-spectral and multi-spectral imagery can offer numerous mining and

exploration aids. Using civil UAVs will allow the optimisation of exploratory mining to reach required

minerals.

2.3.6.1 Mining Exploration The application of civil UAVs to perform remote sensing together with image processing techniques

will provide data on: magnetic, gravity, and electrical composition of minerals prior to their

exploration and exploitation. An added outcome could be concurrent management of a geographic

information system (GIS). In addition, minerals and deposits formed by volcanic eruptions could be

used to predict future eruptive processes and mechanisms of mineral deposit and emplacement

with the relative landforms produced. Development of new systems to identify mineralization

mechanisms and alteration processes associated with hydrothermal systems in submarine

environments84 and the application of information gained from these systems to exploration will be

facilitated by the constant monitoring and measurements afforded by civil UAV systems.

2.3.6.2 Mining Effects – Underground Fires Underground fires contribute to more than 3% of all CO2 gas emissions into the atmosphere, and

since coal fires are dangerous to approach, and typically burn underground, predicting where they

will spread has been a major challenge. Civil UAVs can play an important part in identifying these

underground fires and may even play a part in extinguishing them in the future.

Financially these underground coal fires are disastrous. In China, one billion tonnes of coal are

mined each year - half of all world production. However, coal fires burn up between 10 and 20 per

cent of the national production each year. A team from the Netherlands studied the environmental

84 See on page 55 Figure 2-25



effects of underground fires in China - especially in remote areas like northern China, concluding

that the fires release up to 360 million metric tons of carbon dioxide each year, equal to two to three

percent of global carbon dioxide releases, further adding to global warming.

Fires are blazing in underground coal seams around the globe, sending tons of soot, toxic fumes

and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Major underground fires are burning in all of the world's coal producing nations, with the worst

blazes found in countries such as China, India, Indonesia and Australia – see Figure 2-32. Smaller

fires - some of them decades old - are also burning in areas of the United States including Colorado

and Pennsylvania.

FIGURE 2-32 1997 NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA85

These fires threaten the environment and human health, as was stated by scientists at the

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Annual Meeting in Denver. Although

some coal fires can be impossible to extinguish, new technologies provide hope that experts may

someday be able to control them, if not extinguish them completely. These fires can burn

unchecked for decades.

2.3.7 Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries Efficient use of civil UAVs will provide an ideal method of improving agricultural land usage and

crop yields, saving on runoff, water and excess fertiliser use. In addition, the

farmers will be able to harvest crops at their optimum, enhancing the methods

presently used.

The fisheries industries have been going through quite an upheaval, with the “cod

wars” in the seventies and present over-fishing, which is a major concern to the Earth’s ecological


85 The pattern of fires that ravaged northern Australia in 1997. Image generated by WA Department of Land Administration – satellite

images


balance. Over-fishing has become such a problem that International Plans of Actions (IPOA) are

being prepared and implemented86.

2.3.7.1 Agricultural Survey Future agricultural applications using a variety of payloads and civil UAV platforms will be common.

The flexibility offered by the civil UAVs will provide farmers and agronomic researchers tools to

increase agricultural efficiency - see Figure 2-33 for examples of agricultural land monitoring.

A few advantages include:

Increase crop yield

Monitor effects of the fertilisation, herbicides and pesticides

Effective weed management

Manage efficiently the crop planting according to optimum soil temperature

Optimally provide indications for crop conditions prior to pruning and harvesting

FIGURE 2-33 VISUAL, INFRA-RED AND MULTI-SPECTRAL AGRICULTURAL MONITORING

2.3.7.2 Civil UAV Applications in Forestry A range of civil UAVs using sensors such as LIDAR or multi-spectral sensors will be able to provide

accurate data and details of canopy structure that will aid the effective

management of forests throughout Europe. As new technologies in payloads

and more sophisticated techniques in signal processing are made available,

details of vegetation biomass, tree height, density and health, timber volume,

soil type, leaf conditions and other similarly necessary data, will be readily

86 The IPOAs were developed as the COFI Members in 1997 found that it would be necessary to have some form of international

agreement in order to manage the concerned issues in compliance with the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries. The most suitable instrument for each of the three issues was found to be a voluntary International Plan of Action (IPOA). The three texts were developed in the course of two intergovernmental meetings, open to all FAO Members, held in 1998. The IPOAs were adopted by the twenty-third session of the FAO Committee on Fisheries in February 1999 and endorsed by the FAO Council at the session it held in June 1999.



available to the forest manager.

Civil UAV systems will allow forest inventory to be carried out far more easily than the present day

use of satellite imagery. Real-time data will be made available to all those requiring it for forest

management, making their work more efficient and reliable. The forest health will be readily

monitored and at the same time, anomalies will be quickly identified.

With the present increases in human population and economic development, a stress on the natural

resources is taking place, from food, wood fibre, pleasure excursions to other public demands.

Land use has become a premium issue, demanding precision utilisation of fertilizers, herbicides,

pesticides, and improved genotypes on farms and forests.

In order to meet these demands on the land, the land manager must have access to precise and

up-to-date information on the condition of their fields and forests.

Civil UAVs will provide a solution towards effective land management by providing the platforms

coupled with the required payload to provide the necessary remote sensing application.

This in turn will provide part of the tools needed to monitor urban and suburban growth patterns and

relations to environmental effects on the natural forests, agricultural and land resources.

2.3.7.3 Fisheries Protection and Commercial Fishing Commercial fishing is now suffering from over-fishing, which is presently suspected of changing the

ecological balance in the seas and oceans. Currently, more untargeted catches of species

“bycatch”, is taking place, with more deep Ocean fish species appearing on fish markets. “Over-

fishing is one of the primary causes of marine ecosystem

collapse87”.

Estuary water pollution outlet to the sea, which pollutes the sea

and ocean, is more common today.

Recent advances in lasers, spectrometers, and multi-channel detectors have significantly improved

the capabilities of LIDAR systems in the blue-green region of the electromagnetic spectrum.

Because ocean water has minimum absorbance in the blue-green region of the spectrum, the

LIDAR has great potential to become a versatile tool capable of providing the kind and the quantity

of biomass and water quality (including temperature) data that have been thus far inaccessible to

fisheries scientists. Maximum efficiency will be achieved, by placing LIDAR or similar type payloads

on civil UAVs. Fish shoals will be better protected from over-fishing and the fisheries industries as a



whole will be better protected through shoal monitoring and fishing control.

2.3.8 Surveillance & Security Since the terrorist attacks on 9/11 in New York and the Madrid bombing, homeland security and law

enforcement has received high priority. Personal security has become an issue that has come to

the forefront of discussions. It is therefore natural to use the most sophisticated tools available to

combat terror and crime, providing Europe’s law-abiding citizens tranquillity and safety.

The security threats presented88 in Figure 2-34 with the expected casualty and economic impact

presented in Figure 2-35, at a UAVNET workshop in January 2004 by Frost & Sullivan, show that

out of the ten threats presented six of them can be mitigated using civil UAVs. Furthermore, Frost &

Sullivan published a civil UAV capability graph as a function of threats – see Figure 2-36 and Figure

2-37. It is clear that civil UAVs when used will benefit the citizen.

FIGURE 2-34 SECURITY ASSESSMENT - SOST PROBABLE THREATS

FIGURE 2-35 EXPECTED CASUALTY AND ECONOMIC IMPACT

The trend lines in the graphs described in Figure 2-36 and Figure 2-37 show that with investments in research and development, the civil UAV becomes a key factor in prevention and response to threats.

87 Jeremy Jackson et al., Scripps Institution of Oceanography. 88 See Ref. [ 71]



FIGURE 2-36 POTENTIAL PREVENTION CAPABILITIES BY CLASS OF UAVS

FIGURE 2-37 POTENTIAL RESPONSE CAPABILITIES BY CLASS OF UAVS

Civil UAVs provide the “eye-in-the-sky” to assist in providing Europe’s citizens the peace and quiet

they deserve.

2.3.8.1 Critical Areas With today’s advanced remote sensing technologies, surveys for the protection of civilian

population, monitoring critical infrastructures or detection of unexploded ordnance or minefields can

be carried out more efficiently using civil UAVs. These civil UAVs can cover large areas scanning

for unseen dangers using a large number of different payloads.

2.3.8.2 Law Enforcement More efficient law enforcement will be achieved by using civil UAVs as part of the police

surveillance equipment, complementing the horses, vans, and rooftop spotters.

The border along the U.S. Mexican border is patrolled today by paramilitary UAVs. These have

proved very efficient in spotting potential intruders as well as aiding law enforcement agents to

apprehend those that crossed illegally. These UAVs are military systems used in law enforcement

roles and are not necessarily cost effective. They provide the surveillance required along the long

border, replacing the classic dull tasks flown by pilots in small fixed wing aircraft or in helicopters.

The civil UAVs will also provide the necessary economic foundation through their endurance89 and

enhanced reliability and will prove the business case for civil UAVs. In Figure 2-38, one readily

appreciates the bird’s eye view provided by civil UAVs. Apart from illegal entry, some intruders are

also involved in criminal offences. Smuggling, narcotics trafficking and other illegal activities can

easily be monitored using civil UAVs for remote sensing.



FIGURE 2-38 BORDER PATROL AGENT ESCORTING ILLEGAL ALIENS

Civil UAVs will also provide precise and real-time imagery information, which can be rapidly

disseminated, permitting informed decisions to be taken regarding prompt deployment of the border

patrol agents.

2.3.8.3 Port Security Civil UAVs will provide constant port security that includes the approaches to the port. This is

presently carried out in the framework of maritime control. This task can

be easily moved to civil UAVs, alleviating the mundane part of the work

and providing 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, all year round coverage.

Monitoring the port approaches remotely will provide an efficient use of

human resources, by reducing their number during the periods of normal operation and increasing

the number as required in emergencies. This is different from current resource levels necessary to

protect the port – see Figure 2-39. In addition, the ship-related resources would then be optimised,

since they will be positioned where necessary.

FIGURE 2-39 MONITORING SEA APPROACHES


89 Forty to fifty hour flights should be common once research and development into reliability issues is undertaken


2.3.8.4 Wreck Site Monitoring Wreck site monitoring has been a concern for the UK Maritime and Coast Guard Agency. Civil

UAVs with their sensor suite will provide the necessary flexibility required to monitor wrecks 24

hours 7 days a week as required by the authorities. This will directly aid

authorities, insurance companies and shipping companies.

2.3.8.5 Coastal Monitoring Civil UAVs will offer a superior form of coastal monitoring, providing round

the clock surveillance throughout the year. The civil UAVs will remove the

mundane nature of coastal monitoring and when coupled with high-

resolution sensors will be able to enhance today’s efforts at coastal monitoring. Furthermore, the

sensors used will provide additional value to the earth science research, since sensor data will be

collected and will be readily available.

Coastal erosion, land mass movement, vegetation fluctuations may now be monitored closely and

effectively. Local sea state and local wind speed will be available and correlated to the coastal data,

providing another source of data for climatic behaviour modelling. Cliff erosion and its effect on the

coastline will be studied in detail. These are acute problems today, especially on the channel coast.

Coastal surveillance/maritime traffic control missions, including search for and detection of ships,

prevention of oil pollution in emergency situations in ports, maritime boundary surveillance and

fishery control in the vicinity of the coast.

2.3.8.6 Urban Monitoring Civil UAVs will provide another alternative to urban monitoring enhancing

the safety of Europe’s citizens, augmenting police patrols. Civil UAVs will

aid in allowing emergencies to be dealt with more efficiently providing real-

time pictures to the rescue services and in crime prevention providing the

required data.

The terrain inspections by civil UAVs will provide up to date images of building sites and monitoring

of urban building encroachment. Using the latest platform technologies on civil UAVs the town

planners can better monitor current land usage, spotting illegal expansion and effectively plan the

town.

2.3.8.7 Traffic and Car Park Monitoring Civil UAVs will be able to deliver the essential data to the authorities efficiently, enabling them to



receive the data wherever and whenever required.

The civil UAV provides a very flexible tool for traffic monitoring. Civil HALE or MALE UAVs can be

combined with mini/small UAVs to provide rapid response to accidents and other traffic related

incidents. It has been reported that satellite imagery is being studied to monitor traffic90. This is a

very expensive traffic monitoring station, since a variety of civil UAVs can perform this task without

satellite type costs91.

When considering civil UAV applications for traffic monitoring: civil small UAVs can be used for

localised incidents, civil HALE UAVs to monitor large areas of interest and civil MALE UAVs used

for mid-range traffic applications. Traffic data as shown in Figure 2-40 will be commonplace with

license plate identification readily available.

FIGURE 2-40 REAL-TIME CAR PARK AND TRAFFIC MONITORING92

2.3.8.8 Structural Inspections Civil rotary UAVs will complement present inspection of dam walls and bridges. These civil rotary

UAVs will make structural inspections using thermal imagery, multi-

spectral and hyper-spectral inspections routine and available.

Present methods are carried out manually and in some cases very

dangerously. The means available in the evaluation of coating

performance, in bridge inspection, is

limited. The search for better

techniques are plagued with problems and they do not have the

capability to provide accurate, quantitative, and consistent

inspection data, thus precluding timely planning of bridge

management and rehabilitation. As well as being a safety hazard to

90 See Ref. [ 47, 51] 91 See on page 40. Figure 2-1392 See Ref. [ 51]



the operator and traffic. All of the other available inspection methods are strictly localized, contact-

point methods, which are ineffective for assessment of global coating

deterioration. Consequently, the infrastructure community93 has been

looking for a more cost-effective, non-destructive instrument and

methodology which would automate the repetitive visual inspection,

improve the quality and reliability of inspection, and provide

quantitative feedback regarding the paint condition.

Flying the rotary UAVs will bring the data to the engineer’s desktop without having to send an

inspector to a dangerous location on a bridge or dam to obtain the data.

2.3.8.9 High Value Critical Infrastructures and Railways With the increase of world terror, high value and critical infrastructures will be monitored using civil

UAVs in a very effective way. Real-time information, on the critical sites, will be available to the

relevant authorities round the clock, ensuring their safety. This may be currently carried out by

manned aircraft, but routine flying over the same areas is a classic task for civil UAVs.

Railways and their open-air urban stations will be monitored readily using civil UAVs in a similar

method as for other applications. With civil UAVs monitoring rail tracks and

stations, a wide coverage will be attained simultaneously. Malfunctions

affecting signals, level crossings, will be readily identified and reduced,

funnelling the present expenses to improving the service provided.

Railway level crossings will be easily monitored for vehicle intrusions providing yet another safety

angle for the railways. Having the condition of railway tracks constantly

under surveillance will optimise security by providing them with exact

locations and type of emergency, helping them prepare the necessary

equipment for the task. This is in sharp contrast to today’s method of

monitoring the tracks periodically by the maintenance crews.

In addition to threats of the malicious type, monitoring the rail tracks can be used to avert train

crashes, which sometimes occur, further increasing public safety. Here the present use of

resources to counter the possible threats may be used more efficiently.

The wide field of view together with multiple payload types provide a very efficient method for

monitoring critical sites and infrastructures. Monitoring critical infrastructures can be carried out


93 See Ref. [ 87]


simultaneously because of this flexibility – see Figure 2-41.

FIGURE 2-41 FLEXIBILITY PROVIDED BY CIVIL UAVS FOR MONITORING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES

2.3.8.10 Pipeline and Powerline Monitoring Pipeline Monitoring

Pipeline age and structural condition of the pipelines are causing a rapid market increase in

demand for inspection technology & monitoring services94.

It has been reported, in the CONCAWE report released in May 2005 for the year 200395, that in

terms of spillage96, “Performance in 2003 was better than the long-term average”. The largest spill

reported for 2003, affected no less than 80,000 m2, the second largest area of ground polluted, on

record in Europe. This resulted not only from the size of the spill but also from its location and the

time before detection. It cost more than € 2 million for the clean up operation of that spill.

TABLE 2-3 SUMMARY OF CAUSES AND SPILLED VOLUMES FOR 2003 INCIDENTS

Number of Incidents

Spilled Volume (m3) Average Volume per incident (m3)

Category (by cause)

Pipeline Pump Station

Gross Recovered as oil

Removed Net Loss Gross Net

A. Mechanical Failure 1 0 30 30 30 0 30 0

B. Operational 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

C. Corrosion 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

D. Natural Hazard 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

94 See Ref [ 58] 95 See Ref. [ 81] 96 To appreciate the size of the problem that has to be dealt with see Ref. [ 80]



Number of Incidents

Spilled Volume (m3) Average Volume per incident (m3)

Category (by cause)

Pipeline Pump Station

Gross Recovered as oil

Removed Net Loss Gross Net

E. Third Party Activity

9 0 2800 1154 1180 1623 311 180

Total 10 0 2830 1184 1210 1623 283 162

Given the extent of the pipeline infrastructure across the world, and the associated potential

economic losses and threat to lives should there be a mishap, regular pipeline monitoring is a costly

prerequisite. For instance, land movement due to underground mining is common in Europe, which

has numerous mineshafts. This movement sometimes stresses the pipelines near the underground

mines, risking a pipeline rupture.

Pipeline ruptures causing spillages are a long-term health hazard affecting surface water and

underground water sources, in addition to their immediate toxicity.

Civil UAVs can carry out the tasks of pipeline monitoring in a more flexible and efficient fashion.

The civil UAV will provide the latest technological solutions in terms of remote sensing and

coverage, in comparison to the present attempt to use satellite imagery to monitor pipelines.

Recently Europe has invested in projects using satellite based remote sensing. These include the

PRESENSE, PIPEMOD and GMOSS projects, where the conclusions are that more work is

necessary in order to reach the levels of pipeline monitoring required by the pipeline operators97.

For instance, the conclusions of the PRESENSE project necessitates:

1. Better satellite resolution for both optical and SAR sensors

2. A need for an increased number of satellites carrying these SAR and optical sensors

3. Satellite borne LIDAR

4. Lower cost imagery

5. Reduction in false alarms

Moreover, it must be pointed out that methane plumes due to leaks in gas pipelines are very difficult to measure by satellites due to atmospheric absorption.

Urban areas are expanding naturally and pipelines that were once in relatively remote places are

97 See Ref. [ 75]



becoming vulnerable to building construction. Normally, pipelines are buried in well-maintained

utility right-of-ways marked with warning signs. Nevertheless, pipelines are sometimes damaged by

construction equipment not owned by the pipeline company. This is referred to as third-party

damage and is the major cause of damage to pipelines98. A single incident can be devastating,

causing death and millions of dollars in property loss. One highly publicised incident occurred in

Edison, NJ, in 1994. Flames reached 125 to 150 meters into the air close to an apartment complex.

Nearly 100 people were treated in hospitals because of the accident, with damage from the incident

exceeding $25 million99.

The current pipeline situation is such that:

50% of all North American pipelines are over 40 years old (exceeded design life)

20% of Russian pipelines are nearing the end of design life.

US legislation is making it mandatory to have an integrity management methodology; EU legislation is about to issue a similar draft.

Disturbances to the pipeline network by encroachment from human activities, accidental spills, and

landform changes due to fires, floods, land movement and other natural events are major concerns

to the pipeline industry.

For example, the country of Colombia has been experiencing a problem of theft along their state-

controlled (EcoPetrol) gasoline pipelines, losing approximately 100

million U.S. dollars annually due to this problem. They have asked

Space Imaging100 (Thornton, Colorado) to assess the feasibility of using

the IKONOS satellite to monitor activity along the gasoline infrastructure.

For Europe, the satellite solution is not ideal, since the satellite trajectory

is perpendicular to the European pipelines. Thus, since only a fraction of

their operational time is available for monitoring, they are not suited to monitoring the European

pipelines101. In this case, civil UAVs have considerable potential in contributing to pipeline

monitoring tasks, since they have the capability to carry the latest remote sensing payloads and can

fly where needed.

Third-party damage to pipelines remains the biggest single cause of pipeline incidents

worldwide

98 See Ref. [ 76] 99 See Ref. [ 77] 100 Law Enforcement - http://www.imagingnotes.com/winter04/monitoring.htm 101 See Ref. [ 75]



Different approaches to minimise the damage caused by third parties to pipelines installing GPS

and a transmitter on all construction equipment and to indicate their current

position on a pipeline GIS based map. This method will trigger an alarm once

the equipment nears a pipeline. In addition to the technical problems that must

be solved, there is an inherent problem due to the reluctance to install such

positioning systems on each piece of construction equipment.

Note: There is no commercially available method for detecting or preventing third party damage acceptable to the pipeline industry.

1. It takes less than thirty minutes for construction equipment to move in and damage a pipeline.

2. Monitoring should be every 30 minutes to avoid possible third party damage.

3. Using satellite monitoring is presently affected by weather and image interpretation. However, work to improve this imagery has begun.

4. Satellite passes are not sufficiently frequent and cannot be obtained on an ad-hoc basis.

Furthermore, regardless of where they are located, pipelines are attractive targets for terrorists and

in many countries, pipelines are prone to product losses via theft. Today there is an increasing

concern of leakages due to the age of the pipelines coupled with the threats from malicious intent.

Europe’s pipelines are widely dispersed across the continent (see Figure 2-42102) and there is a

need to monitor them from a safety and security viewpoint. There has been increased interest in

developing a method for rapid aerial surveying of oil and gas pipelines and civil UAVs will provide

the ideal platform to monitor and provide real-time imagery of their condition.

The main market driver for pipeline monitoring is safety, which is affected by pipeline age and

condition. It is estimated that there is an annual global market for pipeline transmission, of

approximately £1.2 billion103, with the most significant expenditure going to pipeline inspection

services.

102 Courtesy of Ruhrgas AG 103 http://www.uavnet.com/DL/Document_Library/Rochester_Meeting/Pipeline_monitoring_Fraser.pdf



Current Pipeline monitoring is accomplished using a variety of methods, a few are noted below:

Foot patrols with dogs to sniff for underground leaks

Divers inspecting the pipeline underwater – where depth permits human inspection104

Pressure sensors on the pipeline

Mechanised patrols with a variety of sensors

Pipe-to-soil electric potentials, using the pipeline’s cathodic protection, at preset test points

Strain monitoring of the pipeline itself – both by continuous and pointwise systems105

Geotechnical monitoring – measures the rock/soil displacement around the pipeline

Acoustic monitoring of the pipeline

"Flying-the-line” in helicopters or fixed wing aircraft with trained observers on board106 - usually 1-2 times per month

FIGURE 2-42 EUROPE’S PIPELINE WITH IDENTIFICATION OF OBJECTS NEAR A PIPELINE TRACK107

Civil UAVs, using sophisticated payloads, will provide the means to survey pipelines effectively

identifying leakages and landslips, effecting pipelines.

For example, it was reported108 – see Figure 2-43, that an underground pipeline network located in

104 There are problems locating deep sea spills, where satellites are either too expensive or are just not available enough, due to the

frequency of coverage 105 Deformation of the pipe due to internal or thermodynamic stresses - it is not efficient in measuring stresses due to geological

movements 106 This is the most common method – see Ref [ 69], even with the inherent concerns of helicopter flights 107 Based on 1 m resolution IKONOS images See Ref. [ 48]



the southwestern United States as shown in Figure 2-43, had been breached in several locations,

two of which are encircled in green. The large circle involved 300-500 barrels (bbl), and the small

circle approximately 20 bbl of hydrocarbons. Neither of these leaks could be easily detectable. The

hydrocarbon concentrations, which were determined from subsequent geochemical sampling, were

of the order of 0.5% carbon and 0.002% sulphur. Though not detectable from the surface, this seep

was easily detectable via Hyper-spectral imaging, particularly in the thermal infrared wavelengths.

Larger pipeline breaks can be averted by detecting leaks while they still have a low magnitude.

FIGURE 2-43 UNDERGROUND PIPELINE LEAKS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES

By using advanced state-of-the-art algorithms and graphics, it will be possible to avoid pipeline

damage during land development109, through definitions of protected working areas, permitting safe

land development avoiding pipeline damage – see Figure 2-42. Europe can benefit from this type of

technology to protect any sensitive underground infrastructure from inadvertent damage.

Presently, pipeline surveillance is mainly performed by helicopter-based inspection with an

observer reporting pipeline safety110 related events in the neighbourhood of the pipeline, which is

followed by an on-foot ground inspection. In inhabited areas, pipelines are monitored by ground

inspections.

Europe is preparing legislation to ensure a methodology that will ensure monitoring and proper

maintenance of pipelines, due their age and condition. This means that the local European market

of pipeline inspection and monitoring technologies will rapidly increase.

108 See Ref [ 59] 109 There are numerous reported incidents of pipeline damage due to tractors and other land moving equipment working in the pipeline

vicinity. 110 For example an unexpected excavator



Powerline Monitoring

Powerline monitoring is carried out by foot patrols and by helicopter inspections. The foot patrols

are very labour intensive and time consuming, whereas the helicopter inspections are expensive. In

addition, helicopters are used to clean the powerline junctions, by jets of liquids, which is a

dangerous task for the helicopter crew. Introducing civil UAVs, that carry remote sensing together

with the cleaning equipment will lower the human risks and will minimise the overall costs involved.

In Figure 2-44 below one readily appreciates some of the challenges involved in powerline

monitoring. The conditions can vary from freezing fog at night to rain and snow. The civil UAV can

enhance the efficiency of this critical work. A cost comparison is shown in section 0 on page 146.

FIGURE 2-44 POWER LINE MONITORING – ASSOCIATED CHALLENGES

2.3.8.11 Fire Related Emergencies & Disaster Management Using civil UAVs in emergencies will optimise the complete emergency response mechanism,

through real-time information on the actual situation. Furthermore, the civil UAVs will

provide superior disaster management. For example, fire fighters are examining the

introduction of small civil UAVs to help manage blazes. The next stage is having

effective monitoring to minimise the response time and hence the size of the fire.

These are actions being taken across the world in a semi-ad hoc fashion. Europe can take the lead here.

Eleven volunteer fire fighters died tackling the blaze on Sunday 20/07/2005, which destroyed

up to 12,000 hectares of pine woodland that threatened the villages of Selas

and Ablanque in Spain.

Europe suffers from forest fires. The reaction time to move the resources into

place is critical and involves two main stages: assembling the resources and

deploying them. Assembling the resources is outside the scope of civil UAVs.

However, moving these resources to the optimum place in order to fight the fire is definitely within

the scope of civil UAVs. Here the information provided by civil UAV remote sensing, will optimise

Forest fires are increasing dramatically over the years and effective solutions must be found.



the use of approaches that the resources may use to combat the flames together with data

provided as to the direction the fire is moving and with what intensity. The greenhouse gases

produced by the fire are also a major factor when calculating the damages involved. In addition, the

added damage due to the lack of absorption of the very same gases by the burnt forests should be

considered. Forest fires now release about 150 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year in Canada.

A civil UAV flying above the forests and providing critical data to the fire fighters will not only save

precious forests, but possibly save lives.

FIGURE 2-45 FOREST SAVED BY USING CIVIL UAVS TO AID COMMANDER OF FIRE FIGHTING TEAM111

The costs involved in a forest fire include clearing the ground for re-plantation of tree saplings and

the cost of the new saplings. This does not take into account the time it takes to have the forest

canopy restored to its pristine condition nor does it consider the disposal problems associated with

removal of the debris and pollution that a forest fire causes. Another point worth mentioning is the

damage to the ecosystem around the forest and the loss of animal and plant life that lived off the

forest and in the undergrowth that is not usually mentioned when calculating the costs due to a

forest fire.

Examining Figure 2-46, one readily sees the advantage provided to the commander in charge of

fire fighting when using an aerial platform, where instead of a very

limited view of what is taking place in the forest fire when at ground

level, the commander gets a bird’s eye view. Smoke and possible

wind will place the pilot and the observer in critical danger112, thus

limiting the use of a manned aircraft. This is not the case when using civil UAVs, which can be

Using civil UAVs, to aidfire-fighting teams, issafer and more efficientthan present methods.

111 See Ref. [ 88] 112 Three pilots lost their lives in the forest fires in 2003 – see “Getting Control” Dec. 2004 - published by the Council of Forest Industries



brought as close as is necessary to provide the required data to the commander of the fire fighting

team.

FIGURE 2-46 COMPARISON OF FIRE MONITORING

2.3.8.12 Human Relief Civil UAV technologies will be able to aid considerably in human relief operations. This initially will

take the form of relief-site monitoring and at a later stage, as the

technology is made available, by dropping relief aid from cargo UAVs,

similarly to what is carried out today by manned aircraft. In addition, the

operation will not be limited by pilot fatigue associated with these types

of applications.

Monitoring wetlands for possible emergencies will be more efficient and

the response to emergencies will be greatly enhanced, by using civil

UAVs. The flexibility offered by the civil UAVs will be readily appreciated when the first one comes

into use. An example already mentioned was the lifesaving missions by UAVs after the Tsunami.

In the future, search missions to remote locations and under adverse conditions will only involve the

civil UAV platform and the “go-ahead” will be not be limited by aircrew safety considerations.

Flood Control

Flooding affects more people worldwide than any other form of natural disaster. Scarcely any other

natural hazard comes in more varied forms than floods. Rivers overflow their banks, city storm

drains become overloaded, coastal dikes give way in the face of a storm surge, waves inundate

coastal areas following a quake, overflowing streams, channels, lakes, etc., precipitation, storm

surge, tsunami, waves or seawater, mudflow, failure of water-retaining structures (dams),

groundwater seepage, water backup in sewer systems overflowing are only a few examples of

flooding.

Overall, there has been a marked rise in the frequency and severity of natural catastrophe losses,



including flood risks, over the last 30 years113. Health hazards follow floods if due care is not taken.

Flooding is becoming more acute than before, in Europe. In 2002, floods were exceptionally

prevalent since they affected an extensive area across Europe from the UK to Spain and as far east

as the Black Sea coast, with 100 fatalities. Economic losses amounted to € 9.2 billion in Germany,

€ 2.9 billion in Austria and € 2.3 billion in the Czech Republic. Total economic damage due to these

floods exceeded € 15 billion114. This flooding occurred for a relatively very short period, between 31

July and 26 August 2002.

FIGURE 2-47 FLOODING IN EUROPE

Real time flood forecasting using civil UAVs together with radar hydrology will be highly effective. Civil UAVs will augment water level measurements and inundation maps that are made

to predict possible flooding. Inundation maps are produced only every 35 days from satellite

imagery, due to the image processing required and the frequency of visits115. A comparison of what

is being used today compared to what is possible with civil UAVs is shown in Figure 2-48 and

Figure 2-49.

FIGURE 2-48 DELINEATION OF INUNDATION MAPS VIA SATELLITE IMAGES

FIGURE 2-49 REQUIRED INUNDATION MAPS MADE POSSIBLE BY CIVIL UAVS

113 Josef Breitsameter, Munich-based natural scientist and expert on flood risk assessment, monitoring flood-stricken regions 114 See - http://www.swissre.com - Swiss Re has been in the reinsurance business since its foundation in Zurich, Switzerland, in 1863. 115 See Ref. [ 84]



In addition, they will certainly provide substantial support to the flood victims and authorities helping

flood victims. This support will come in the form of providing tools for the emergency services to

identify the situation and help detect critical emergencies thus enhancing the efficiency of aid

operation.

2.3.9 Civil UAVs as Nature’s Utensil - Wildlife & Nature Nature may be served significantly through the widespread use of civil UAVs. Benefits to wildlife will

be felt when they will be applied to anti-poaching.

Civil UAVs may be used as effective deterrents against present day poachers. The civil UAVs will

bring about an enhanced method of monitoring the vast areas of natural habitat from a distance

without disturbing the habitat’s natural environment. The nature reserve rangers will be provided

with a real-time view of the area permitting them to efficiently use their resources.

Today in Africa, anti-poaching is achieved by combining foot patrols with cross-country vehicles and

manned aircraft. A more effective method may be to have a civil UAV flying at altitudes that will not

only monitor the area for poachers, but will also provide data to scientists on animal behavioural

changes due to human encroachment.

Bird and animal migration can be better monitored too. A deeper understanding of the cause and

effect can be attained.

At sea, whales, dolphins and other sea creatures can be monitored and studied. A civil UAV can

offer much in this realm alone. If combined with other remote sensing the civil UAV can help

provide a better picture of the world we live in.

Modern laser scanners can monitor fish shoals underwater. This can help curtail the present over-

fishing trend that is taking place across the globe. In addition, these systems can be used to map

the Earth’s surface (ocean and land) to provide the necessary information needed to plan and

restrain present pollution patterns.

2.3.10 Other Commercial Applications There is already limited use of civil rotary UAVs in aerial cinematography using various basic

platforms, though this trend is increasing. The main challenges in this field

are reproducing identical flight paths taken in the “retakes”.

Cinematography UAV applications are presently supported by companies

with expert pilots using specialised civil UAV rotary craft. These

technologies can be improved by, allowing widespread dual use of these platform types to building



inspection or similar roles and with less skilled pilots.

Another application for these types of civil UAVs is news/media work, where a bird’s eye view is

sometimes needed. This alone, is a very broad growth market.

2.3.11 Civil UAV Transport Aircraft Civil UAV transport systems include: cargo civil UAVs and passenger civil UAVs.

Civil UAV Cargo Aircraft

In view of studies116 showing extensive air cargo market growth – see Figure 2-50, the congestion

at major hubs is likely only to increase. There is a growing interest in civil cargo UAVs117, as

passenger airport congestion rises, and an alternative venue for cargo hubs promises to alleviate

the bottleneck.

This requires the cargo aircraft to fly to alternative airports, perhaps even cargo-dedicated airports.

By using civil cargo-UAVs to land on smaller landing strips within industrial estates having minimal

aircraft related facilities, a noticeable reduction in air traffic to and from the main hubs will be

sensed. This alternative solution, which supports civil cargo UAVs will alleviate the increased

passenger congestion expected and Europe will gain by offloading this cargo traffic from the

congested passenger airports to the industrial sites, close to the cargo source and in the future as

this concept takes hold, the cargo destination. Having cargo UAVs landing and taking off from

industrial parks, will reduce the costs involved in transporting the goods from their industrial source

to their destination. This cost reduction will be initially achieved in reducing expenses related to the

outgoing leg. The infrastructure required for “cargo UAV airports”, is minimal compared to

passenger airports. By adding pallet standardisation coupled with robots, to load and unload the

cargo aircraft, the social and economical gains are phenomenal.

116 Source: 1995-2002; U.S. Air Carriers, Form 41, U. S. Department of Transportation, 2003-2014; FAA Forecasts 1/ Historical and

forecast data on a calendar year basis. Domestic refers to U.S. cargo and “system” refers to the total cargo in the transport system. 117 Don Barber, senior vice president at Fed Ex, told ATCA attendees he believes that, though unmanned air freighters "may not be

ubiquitous soon," UAV cargo transport "will be a demonstrated reality" in the near future. See Ref. [ 89]



Air Cargo [Historical & Forecast]

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1995 2001 2002 2003 2004 2014Year

Total Cargo RTM

(Millions)

Domestic International System

FIGURE 2-50 REVENUE TON-MILES118 FOR LARGE AIR CARRIERS - AIR CARGO - FISCAL YEARS 2003-2014

This in itself will have a streamlining effect on the whole of the cargo industry.

Presently George Mason University Virginia, together with the FAA have begun work on small civil

UAV Cargo aircraft, based on the Cessna Grand Caravan. The initial aim is having one ground

operator manage 5-7 cargo UAVs. This concept is based on using standard cargo feeder aircraft119

and integrating an autonomous flight control system into this aircraft with relevant ground support

equipment. Europe should take thisopportunity and use thecivil UAV roadmap as theimpetus to initiate theoperation of pilotless cargoaircraft, based on the workaccomplished in the IFATSand the FP5 UAV projects.

A concept of an airport-independent uninhabited air vehicle (UAV)

cargo system has been suggested as one way to off-load cargo

traffic from passenger airports to save that capacity for passenger

transports as well as to provide more efficient origin to destination

cargo delivery. For such a system to operate safely, a new

automated air traffic management (ATM) system is needed that

supports operations to and from many locations around a metropolitan area. The design problem

includes how the UAV system interacts with normal ATC120.

Civil UAV Passenger Aircraft

The civil UAV passenger aircraft is already being studied for possible future implementation. The

European Commission is investing in the IFATS121 project, which is studying pilotless passenger

118 RTM refers to Revenue Ton-Miles. 119 The Cessna Grand Caravan will have an autonomous navigation system, converting it into a cargo UAV – see Ref. [ 45]. 120 See Ref. [ 74] 121 See http://www.ifats-project.org for details on the project.



aircraft. IFATS may be viewed as another test-bed to provide

data for future trends and required technologies. The initial

stage is viewed as a conversion of a commercial aircraft into an

autonomous passenger airliner – see Figure 2-51. The IFATS

project is studying a revolutionary concept for a future air

transportation system by adding as much onboard autonomy to the aircraft as necessary to fulfil the

overall requirements of improved efficiency and safety of air transportation.

The proposed modified aircraft will fly autonomously on a pre-programmed flight route, using

sophisticated on board computing and sensor systems, with the aircraft position and tracking

carried out by a dedicated ground controller. A balance of tasks is carried via a data link between

the autonomous onboard systems and the ground controller.

FIGURE 2-51 IFATS CONCEPT FOR AUTONOMOUS AIRCRAFT



3 FOUNDATIONS OF EUROPEAN CIVIL UAVS Unmanned or autonomous air vehicles are increasingly being seen as the next step in aircraft

evolution with the potential to replace manned aircraft over a broad range of civil roles. At the

beginning of the year 2000, there was a clear worldwide interest by the aeronautical community to

analyse how UAVs could be introduced and operated safely for civil applications in the controlled

airspace.

Europe responded by supporting four civil UAV projects within the fifth European Commission

Funded Framework Programme (FP5). These projects were: CAPECON, USICO, UAVNET and HELIPLAT.

For the past 3 years, a consortium of leading European organizations, among them industries such

as EADS, Thales, BAE Systems, Alenia, Sonaca, Israel Aircraft Industries, and research institutes

such as DLR, Onera, NLR, CIRA have recognized the potential benefits and have established a

number of European projects to advance the utilisation of UAVs for civilian applications. USICO

dealt with the issues of system airworthiness and ATC integration, CAPECON evaluated the

various missions and proposed suitable cost-effective and reliable configurations as responses to

their requirements while UAVNET provided the forum for the exchange of information on all the

relevant issues.

To date approximately 90% of all UAV systems funding are a direct result of government

requirements channelled through military and defence programs, with relatively few exceptions.

This trend is likely to continue until the issues faced in introducing civil UAVs into the controlled

airspace are resolved.

There are two main issues to be addressed prior to the introduction of civil UAV into controlled

airspace:

Civil UAV airworthiness

Civil UAV regulations – approved operational rules should be available to allow safe operation of such airworthy UAVs.

Presently, there is a stalemate or circle of inactivity between the three principle stakeholders in the

market for civil UAVs:

Civil UAV users who are hesitant to pursue commercial applications because the industry cannot provide UAVs that have an approved certificate of airworthiness and because civil authorities do not permit them to operate outside restricted airspace.

Civil regulators who are hesitant to pursue the development of the necessary airworthiness



standards and operational procedures because industry and users do not seem to be able to convince them that civil UAV applications are to become a reality in the short term. Subsequently they are not motivated to enter a seemingly costly rule-making process that has not yet been decided politically nor is it within their budget and resources.

Aerospace industries that are hesitant to accelerate the development and production of UAVs for civil applications because they do not know which civil airworthiness standards their design should meet and because only a limited number of potential customers have been identified.

These issues cause the circle of inactivity that stifles the proliferation of civil UAV activity as can be

readily appreciated in Figure 3-1 below.

FIGURE 3-1 CLOSED LOOP DILEMMA OF THE THREE PRINCIPLE STAKEHOLDERS OF CIVIL UAVS122

3.1 THE CAPECON PROJECT

The Civil UAV APplications & Economic Effectivity of Potential CONfiguration Solutions is the

acronym for the CAPECON project. The project’s objectives were to:

Carry out a survey of potential civil UAV applications in order to define baseline requirements for fixed wing HALE & MALE and Rotary UAV configurations.

Identify the state of the art technology and their Technology Readiness Level (TRL) in order to set the technology baseline that will have to be considered for developing the UAV configurations.

Carry out a first and second iteration of configurations definition: Mini/Small, HALE, MALE, Rotary configurations (sizing, first definition, start of analysis).

Develop an operating cost model (algorithm and model definition). Together with UAVNET prepare and disseminate the European Civil UAV Roadmap

122 Presentation at USICO inaugural meeting - http://www.uavnet.com/DL/Document_Library/Inaugural_Meeting/USICO_Airobotics.pdf



Initially the feasibility ground rules were laid out as shown in Figure 3-2.

Since the two most important challenges facing civil operation of UAVs are safety and cost,

CAPECON addressed both these issues. CAPECON123 was set up to advance the utilisation of

safe and economically viable Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) in the civilian commercial sphere. The

project carried out the technological and economic feasibility of different civil UAV configurations for

various applications – see Figure 3-3.

FIGURE 3-2 CAPECON FEASIBILITY GROUND RULES

CAPECON analysed civil UAVs: four HALE civil UAV configurations, two MALE civil UAV

configurations, two rotary civil UAV configurations and two small civil UAV configurations. The

CAPECON project initially defined configurations in a multitask activity that was carried out in two

iterations by separate teams for each configuration. Four different High Altitude Long Endurance

(HALE) configurations were studied in depth, with different technological approaches. All

configurations took into account the necessary safety and cost effectiveness goals.

123 CAPECON is in the final stages before project termination.



The different HALE UAV configurations were to cruise at altitudes above 55000 feet, and weigh

above 3 tons:

Modular HALE UAV (workpackage led by Israel Aircraft Industries)

Solar HALE UAV (workpackage led by Politecnico di Torino)

Blended wing HALE UAV (workpackage led by Onera)

Blended wing HALE UAV (workpackage led by Warsaw University of Technology)

FIGURE 3-3 CAPECON UAV RESEARCH DOMAINS

The modular configuration was designed to optimise cost by allowing different payloads to use the

same platform. This was to eliminate the inevitably different platforms for various payloads, without

compromising maximal requirements for altitude and long endurance applications. This

configuration will have to climb and descend at a greater frequency than that of the solar

configuration and, therefore, will need to incorporate multiple multidirectional sensors – see Figure

3-4.



FIGURE 3-4 CAPECON - MODULAR HALE CIVIL UAV DESIGN

The solar configuration was designed for very long endurance flight. It took into consideration

aeroelasticity, sensor types and energy requirements, albeit with limited payloads – see Figure 3-5.

FIGURE 3-5 CAPECON - SOLAR HALE CIVIL UAV DESIGN

The third and fourth configurations were based on a blended wing body, which had aerodynamic

and structural optimisation designed in a cost effective way.

The first design was based on aeronautical technologies using laminar flow across the outer and



inner wing. In addition, it was to be aerodynamically efficient with an efficient structural layout such

as to reduce structure weight and use the aeroelasticity efficiently – see Figure 3-6.

FIGURE 3-6 CAPECON – BLENDED WING-BODY HALE CIVIL UAV DESIGN 1

The second HALE blended wing body design, has a blended wing configuration constructed from

metal and composite materials. The wing control surfaces provide for longitudinal axis stability, with

a central fin together with wingtips that provide directional stability – see Figure 3-7.

FIGURE 3-7 CAPECON – BLENDED WING-BODY HALE CIVIL UAV DESIGN 2

There were two MALE civil UAV configurations studied in the CAPECON project.



The different MALE UAV configurations were for altitudes below 45000 feet, and weights below 3

tons:

Piston MALE UAV (workpackage led by Warsaw University of Technology)

Turbo Prop MALE UAV (workpackage led by the University of Naples)

The first MALE civil UAV configuration was based on a diesel supercharged engine configuration –

see Figure 3-8.

FIGURE 3-8 CAPECON – MALE CIVIL UAV DIESEL SUPERCHARGED ENGINE CONFIGURATION DESIGN 1

The second design was based on a turbo-engine configuration.

FIGURE 3-9 CAPECON – MALE CIVIL UAV TURBO-ENGINE CONFIGURATION DESIGN 2

Two Rotary UAVs were studied for altitudes below 25000 feet, and weights below 0.5 ton, offering a

classic single rotor design and the coaxial rotor design:

Conventional rotor UAV (workpackage led by Agusta) – see Figure 3-10

Coaxial rotor UAV (workpackage led by Eurocopter)– see Figure 3-11



FIGURE 3-10 CAPECON – PINGLE ROTOR CIVIL UAV

FIGURE 3-11 CAPECON – POAXIAL ROTARY CIVIL UAV

The different civil UAV designs demonstrate the different approaches taken by the individual design

teams, indicating the influence of their own experience.

CAPECON initially set ground rules and assumptions. The project partners studied the

requirements, defined the applications’ payloads and the essential technologies to meet the

application requirements including the propulsion system definition.

A preliminary design was initiated, which included: sizing - geometrical definition (3 views and 3D),

external layout, aerodynamic definition, structure concept, systems definition, payload integration,

internal layout and weight and balance computation..

In addition, the flight performance analysis was undertaken and that included the establishment of

databases (aerodynamic, weights and propulsion databases) and performance computations

(integral performance, point performance - flight envelopes, and ground performance).

Aerodynamic analysis was carried out through CFD modelling and control and stability was

addressed in the design analyses.

The structural analyses (FEM) for the different configurations were carried out taking into account

different parameters such as aeroelasticity due to high aspect ratio/low mass wing in the fixed wing

HALE civil UAVs.

The reliability and safety requirement characteristics were addressed as well as maintainability

aspects and recommendations were prepared for the different civil UAV configurations.



3.2 USICO

USICO is the acronym that stands for Unmanned aerial vehicle Safety Issues for Civil Operations.

The USICO project was conceived in order to develop procedures for the certification of civil UAVs

for civilian applications and for the integration of UAVs within controlled airspace. USICO was

funded in the 5th European Commission framework programme and participated in the JAA/Eurocontrol Task Force. The USICO project focused on the following key issues:

Airworthiness Certification - ensure that the design of the civil UAV is safe and reliable.

Operational Certification - ensure that the civil UAV can be operated in airspace that is

simultaneously used by other aircraft or other UAVs.

The USICO project ran between May 2002 and April 2004. In total, an effort of 28 man-years was

spent by: five industry organisations, three research institutes, and two universities from a total of

five countries within the European Union and one associated state.

In order to reach its objective USICO set out to:

Compile essential operational/functional requirements for civil UAV missions

Define a practicable set of standards for certification of civil UAV

Develop and pre-validate concepts for safe operation of UAV in civil airspace

Disseminate the findings to regulation organisations and the user community

The project commenced with a market analysis for civil applications, which included various UAV

platforms (HALE, MALE, rotorcraft). A set of representative UAV platforms were selected, based on

a survey of existing and future UAVs, where six configurations were considered as representatives

of a wide range of platforms:

2 Rotorcrafts – Rotary platforms, characterized by low weight, low altitude and low endurance.

2 MALE – Fixed wing platforms, having almost the same geometry and aerodynamic characteristics but propelled by either a single or twin turboprop engines. They are characterized by medium weight, medium altitude and medium to long endurance.

1 HALE – Fixed wing platform, propelled by twin turbofan engines, characterized by high weight, high altitude and long endurance.

1 HALE – Aerostatic platform propelled by an electric engine and characterized by very high weight, high altitude and very long endurance.

This was followed by surveying existing recommendations and regulations for airworthiness



certification and rules for safe operations of UAVs. Civil UAV safety issues were found to

correspond to two types of risks and two interrelated processes that may be summarized as

follows:

The risk in flying over populated areas should not be higher than for manned aircraft equivalent category. UAV system design must be subsequently shown to be safe and reliable in order to receive authorization to fly above densely populated areas. This is usually the main purpose of the airworthiness certification process and is mostly related to safety design criteria.

The risk of air collision should also not be higher than for manned aircraft of an equivalent category. In addition, UAVs should be safely operated. This is usually dealt with during the operational certification process, relating to airspace management issues, operator qualification, maintenance and continued airworthiness.

Typical mission scenarios for these UAV categories were outlined. A typical HALE operational flight

is described in Figure 3-12, below.

FIGURE 3-12 USICO TYPICAL HALE CIVIL UAV OPERATIONAL FLIGHT124

Relevant technologies for ATC/ATM integration and collision avoidance were studied with relevant

concepts proposed for safe operation. These concepts for safe UAV operations were evaluated

using ATC/ATM and collision avoidance simulations – see figures: Figure 3-13 to Figure 3-16.

The results obtained in the USICO project were disseminated by means of periodic presentations to



the UAV community through UAVNET and a workshop on ATC/ATM integration and collision

avoidance was held in February of 2004 in Braunschweig, Germany.

USICO developed concepts of safe UAV operation that were evaluated in realistic computer

simulations of representative operational scenarios – see for example Figure 3-13. In order to

assess the impact and integration of civil UAVs flying in ATC airspace a set of representative

normal and emergency scenarios of a civil UAV operation was simulated in an air traffic simulator

with ATC controllers in the loop.

FIGURE 3-13 USICO – MODELLING COLLISION AVOIDANCE SCENARIOS OVERVIEW

Controller workload and usability was evaluated during these simulations reviewing operational and

safety concepts as well as the integration of the civil UAV into the ATC airspace – see Figure 3-14.

124 Picture taken from Global Hawk presentations



FIGURE 3-14 USICO – ATM AND OPERATIONS SIMULATOR CONFIGURED FOR UAV TRIALS

Simulated traffic in two sectors was piloted by pseudo-pilots navigating aircraft according to

predefined individual flight paths as well as advisories and clearances given by ATC controllers in

the respective sectors. Air traffic to the North and South is designated as dummy traffic, since it is

navigating fully autonomously. The simulations included a typical mix of arrival and departure of

aircraft traffic at Frankfurt airport, as well as some over-flights and two MALE civil UAVs.

In addition, several Sense and Avoid concepts were investigated by simulation of potential flight

collision scenarios and the respective risk levels were evaluated – see Figure 3-16.

FIGURE 3-15 USICO – COLLISION AVOIDANCE SCENARIOS EXAMPLE

These simulations clearly showed that with minor adaptation to ATC procedures, UAV operations

under IFR conditions could be realised with the same level of safety as that for manned aircraft.



FIGURE 3-16 USICO – ATC DISPLAY SCENARIOS OF SIMULATED AIR TRAFFIC WITH CIVIL UAV

Further simulations with UAV flights under VFR conditions, indicated a requirement for a reliable

sense and avoid capability, to assure a successful collision avoidance manoeuvre. The simulations

showed the first successful automatically executed collision avoidance manoeuvres following ICAO

flight rules and verified that communication based collision avoidance systems based on ADS-B

technology is a promising candidate for the near future. Nevertheless, sensors based calibrated

airspeed (CAS) should be made mandatory for non-cooperative obstacles or traffic.

3.3 UAVNET

UAVNET is a Thematic Network, funded by the European Community to advance the development

of civil UAVs (Unmanned Air Vehicles) for civilian purposes. The thematic network has been

serving as a forum for information exchange, for suggesting new policies and for launching

activities in critical technology research. UAVNET has the mission of disseminating information

among industry, academia and research institutes. This is accomplished through Workshops

convened several times a year and the UAVNET website.



UAVNET’s scope of work was defined as:

Bringing together industry, universities, research centres and potential users

Coordinating a "cluster" of projects funded at a community level

Exchange and dissemination of knowledge

Coordination of activities

Networking of organisations

Partners in UAVNET were:

Airobotics (Germany) Alenia (Italy) BAe Systems (England) Brno University (Czech Republic) CIRA (Italy) DLR (Germany) EADS (France) Gedminas Institute (Lithuania) IAI (Israel) Institute of Aviation (Poland) National Defence Univ. (Hungary) NLR (Netherlands) ONERA (France) Politechnika Warsaw (Poland) Politecnico Torino (Italy) Snecma (France) Swedish Space Corp. (Sweden) Sonaca (Belgium) Thales Communications(France)

The UAVNET workshops were held in a wide variety of locations throughout Europe and Israel in

order to bring the message of civil commercial UAVs to all interested parties. A map showing

locales of the workshops and their respective dates is described in Figure 3-17.



FIGURE 3-17 UAVNET WORKSHOPS

During these workshops, numerous subjects concerning the introduction of civil UAVs into daily use

were discussed. These subjects included the following main issues:

Political Social Economical Technological

Psychological Required infrastructure The requirements for civil UAVs and how to introduce them

into the controlled airspace

3.4 HELIPLAT

The objective of the Heliplat project was to design an autonomous/automatic High Altitude Long

Endurance flying platform, capable of remaining aloft for very long periods. The civil HALE was

designed using sophisticated computer software, which performed sensitivity calculations based on

a parametric platform model. The design parameters considered parameters such as: solar

radiation, latitude and altitude, mass and efficiency of solar cells and fuel cells, aerodynamics

aspects, etc.

Three latitudes were considered in the analysis: 36°, 40° and 45°, with the latitudes, corresponding



to Malta, Naples and Turin, respectively.

FIGURE 3-18 HELIPLAT CONFIGURATION



3.5 FP5 FUNDED CIVIL UAV PROJECTS KEY FINDINGS

3.5.1 USICO’s key findings USICO’s main recommendations were that:

1. The authority of the UAV Task Force initiated by JAA and EUROCONTROL shall be recognised and that its recommendations be implemented by EASA without undo interference or further endless iterations.

2. European aeronautical research shall consider UAVs as a high priority item, which can be treated in parts as the avant-garde of new innovative aerial vehicles influencing manned aircraft and their operation as well.

3. European UAV interests shall be represented as an integral part of the European aerospace and defence industries. No other organisation than the European “Aerospace and Defence Industries Association (ASD)” is better suited to play this role.

3.5.2 CAPECON’s Key Findings There is a need to research and develop methods:

1. To reduce the costs associated with present UAV technologies, in order to ensure that they are competitive within the commercial and civil UAV sphere.

2. To increase present safety and reliability through technological research and development, into structures that are more efficient, enhanced fail-safe systems, improved collision avoidance systems tailored to civil UAVs with system autonomous recovery.

3. To formulate the final civil UAV configurations that will provide the highest affordability rating and thus be the first in the commercial market.

3.5.3 UAVNET’s Key Findings UAVNET provided an organised forum for discussions in the civil UAV field, which showed that

there is immense interest in this field.

The UAVNET key finding is that there is a need to have an international forum for civil UAV



technologies where industry meets academia and potential customers forming a highly successful symbiotic relationship.

The UAVNET forum should be transformed into a Technological Platform, which will coordinate further research into essential technologies (e.g. Sense and Avoid), Validation of UAV utilisations for the various proposed applications and development, production and operation of UAVs on behalf of civilian modes. This Technological Platform should promote research institutes, universities, SMEs and other industries from all 25 European nations and in particular those nations, which do not have strong aeronautical industries.



4 MARKET SURVEY - ACHIEVING OPERATIONAL CIVIL UAV SYSTEMS Frost & Sullivan, although not a partner in the UAVNET project, actively participated in the

Workshops and was contracted, considering their expertise in this field, to perform this Market

Research Study of the European Market exclusively for the Roadmap.

This section in its entirety was prepared by Frost & Sullivan.

4.1 TOTAL MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS

4.1.1 Introduction The market for UAV systems for civil and commercial applications in Europe is on the brink of being

realised. Exciting opportunities are emerging which are an excellent fit with UAV capabilities. In

the long-term, UAVs are likely to become a true ‘disruptive technology’, eventually taking on many

of the roles currently performed by manned aircraft and also opening up some new markets.

The purpose of this study is to give shape to these hopes and ambitions. It will address eight key

markets, assess the drivers and restraints of these markets and quantify each market. These will

be combined to form a top-level assessment, analysis and forecast of the future civil and

commercial UAV systems market in Europe.

4.1.2 Methodology This market assessment is based on three complimentary methodological strands. Firstly, an

exhaustive search of secondary resources covering both the UAV market and potential end-user

market dynamics. Secondly, a revenue forecast model was built, appropriate to the specific

market, and relevant inputs, such as current inventories, current mission costs, market demand and

growth within markets and UAV model cost assumptions, used to reach a projected market

potential. To refine the assessment, primary research was undertaken. This consisted of a large

number of interviews with UAV manufacturers and potential customers of UAV manufacturers or

services. This enables a projected market forecast that is based, as much as possible at this stage

of the market’s development, on realistic assessments of end-user demand and the impact of future

end-market dynamics. This process was instrumental to the study’s results.



4.1.3 Market Drivers

4.1.3.1 Introduction TABLE 4-1 CIVIL AND COMMERCIAL UAV MARKETS: MARKET DRIVERS (EUROPE), 2006 - 2015

Rank Driver 1 Cost Advantages

2 Capability Advantages

3 New Applications

4 Technology Maturation

Source: Frost & Sullivan

4.1.3.2 Cost Advantages The pressure to constantly reassess and reduce costs is an ever-present factor in business today,

and one that has a bearing on almost every business decision. UAV systems potentially have

several cost benefits to offer a number of industries. As such, the extent to which UAV systems

impact business margins will determine to a large degree how widely UAV technology pervades

European society in the coming decades.

The main cost advantages for UAVs are not to be found in the initial purchase price. UAV systems

currently can, at best, only match the cost of procuring a manned aircraft. The cost advantages of

UAV systems are best demonstrated over the in-service life of a system. Firstly and most

importantly, the reduction in personnel costs is significant, with the removal of the pilot and the

engineering expertise required to maintain and repair the cockpit systems of a manned aircraft.

Secondly, fuel costs will be reduced given the reduced weight of UAV systems compared with

manned aircraft, largely to do with the removal of the controls and systems that support pilot

operation of the aircraft. Inventory costs are also likely to be lower given the lower size and weight

of UAVs.

In the military market, initial procurement cost generally weighs more relative to in-service costs

when equipment acquisitions are made. This is a function of the annual budgetary process that

most western militaries are subject to. This is unlikely to be the case in the commercial world,

although it will hold true to a lesser degree for some civil bodies. Generally, commercial

organizations are much better at appreciating the impact on costs in the future and long term

investment, based on RoIC (Return on Invested Capital) assessments.

Ultimately, in seeking to attract civil and commercial customers, UAV manufacturers will need to

adequately demonstrate clear in-service cost benefits as well as offer UAV systems at an initial



procurement cost that is attractive to end-users. This will also be necessary for UAV service

providers in order to be more cost-effective than competitors who utilise manned systems.

4.1.3.3 Capability Advantages The development of a civil and commercial UAV market will develop as a result of UAV systems

supplanting manned aircraft as a consequence of being able to do the same mission at lower

overall cost. In many cases, UAV systems will not have any inherent technological advantage over

manned aircraft with both aircraft being able to do the mission equally well.

However, in other cases UAV systems will be able to provide additional and extended capabilities

over and above current or even future manned systems. The use of the designation ‘DDD’ (Dull,

Dark and Dangerous) to describe the use of UAV systems is somewhat overused in the UAV

community at this point in time, but it adequately conveys the areas in which UAVs will excel in the

marketplace.

Long endurance (‘Dull’) gives UAVs a clear advantage over manned aircraft and is particularly

relevant to border patrol, maritime surveillance and potential communications applications. The

ability of UAV mounted sensors to see through smoke and at night give them a clear advantage in

observing forest fires while keeping personnel out of harms way. Lastly, the idea of ‘swarming’

UAVs, for example, several small UAVs operating in concert with a larger UAV, again provides

possibilities that manned aircraft find hard to replicate. The possibilities of mini UAVs in terms of

ease of launch and flexible deployment are also another example of UAV systems’ technological

superiority in some areas over manned systems.

4.1.3.4 New Applications As previously indicated, much of the future UAV systems market in the civil and commercial sphere

will come from displacing manned aircraft that currently perform the missions in the respective

fields. Nevertheless, there are other areas where potentially UAVs will not merely replace manned

aircraft but be able to provide a capability where one did not exist previously.

Potentially the largest such application is for telecommunications, but in this area UAV technology

has some substantial obstacles to overcome, particularly in the European market. Other

applications in this category would include, for example, close surveillance for law enforcement.

Given UAV technology’s emergence as a ‘disruptive technology’ the possibility of other areas, as

yet unidentified, emerging as markets for UAVs where currently there is no market for either

manned or unmanned aircraft, must be considered highly likely.



4.1.3.5 Technology Maturation The fact that UAV systems, in terms of technology, are proven and relatively mature means that

UAV systems in many cases are capable of undertaking missions currently performed by manned

aircraft. There exists only one area of technology that has yet to be adapted for UAVs that is

essential and that is in the area of sense-and-avoid technology to enable UAVs to operate in

managed airspace more easily.

The fact that UAV technology, although still evolving, is available now for operational use is a great

advantage. UAV technology has, after all, enjoyed several decades of development already. It is,

however, a new technology in terms of use and in terms of end-user awareness and this is a much

bigger challenge for the UAV community than realizing technical capability.

4.1.4 Market Restraints

4.1.4.1 Introduction

TABLE 4-2 CIVIL AND COMMERCIAL UAV MARKETS: MARKET RESTRAINTS (EUROPE), 2006 - 2015

Rank Restraint 1 Lack of Investment

2 UAV Integration

3 Not a Primary Concern for Major Manufacturers


4.1.4.2 Lack of Investment Despite the fact that the basic technology for UAV systems is proven and mature, UAV

manufacturers have struggled to find adequate funds to develop UAVs specifically for the civil and

commercial markets, except in areas where there exists abundant funds and familiarity with UAVs,

such as in the case of UAVs for border and maritime surveillance in the US.

Elsewhere, despite client interest, ignorance of UAV capabilities and potential, and the failure of

UAV manufacturers to integrate UAV systems adequately into civil aerospace have combined to

restrict the willingness of private and public bodies to invest in UAV development.

Such investment is key to enabling UAV manufacturers to grasp the opportunities that lie ahead.

Without significant investment funds, the development of a civil and commercial UAV market will be

incremental at best. Although small and medium sized businesses are best placed to exploit these

new markets outside the military UAV market, large defence manufacturers are the ones who can



invest large amounts of capital required to develop UAV systems specific to the civil and

commercial market. However, their motivation to do so is reduced due to the fact that military

UAVs can be sold for a higher price and much of the defense industry is accustomed to a

relationship with its governmental customers that is very different from that which is common in the

commercial sphere.

It is therefore doubtful that investment will come from this area and this leaves SMEs still well

placed to exploit the opportunity of a market in civil and commercial UAVs. This leaves two further

sources of investment: potential end-users and governmental or similar investment. The future

end-users of UAV systems are also reluctant or are unable to put up sufficient development funds

for UAVs. While they are clearly willing to participate in trials, investing small amounts of capital,

private end-user entities, for example electricity or gas companies, are still yet to be convinced that

UAVs will be able to fly on the scale needed and without restrictions. This attitude is as much a

psychological one as one based on the state of UAV technology. Potential public end-users simply

are unlikely to be able to call on the kind of funds that the US Coast Guard could, to finance

development of a custom designed UAV system.

This leaves government and EU funding as the best source of development resource for SME UAV

manufacturers. Such funding has been available and more may be extracted over time, but once

again it will require a strong effort to educate decision makers and a willingness to tailor the

development phase to the requirements of civil, rather than commercial entities. Nevertheless, this

will aid the demonstration of effective UAV systems, helping to overcome the inherent uncertainty

and caution that many potential end-users currently display.

4.1.4.3 UAV Integration One of the key barriers to the cultural acceptance of UAVs by end-users remains the difficulties

involved in integrating UAV systems into civil airspace.

The question of certification is the initial hurdle to be overcome. UAV systems to perform anything

other than niche tasks in remote areas will have to comply with a rigorous certification procedure

and obtain a full certificate of airworthiness. This is also highly likely to extend to include the

communications, flight controls and ground stations of UAV systems which will have to demonstrate

safety in relation to the loss of communication with the air vehicle, resistance to jamming (either

deliberate or inadvertent) and standards in correct failure-mode recovery which will be vital if UAVs

are to fly over populated areas. Sense-and-avoid technology also needs to be incorporated into



UAV systems, which presents its own problems.

These obstacles currently severely restrict the market in two ways. Firstly, this obviously severely

restricts the markets UAVs can be offered in now. Secondly, it severely slows the demonstration of

technology and is a significant dampener on potential end-users and their willingness to engage in

the development process.

4.1.4.4 Civil and Commercial Markets a Secondary Concern for Major Manufacturers This factor currently restricts the market in some ways but also represents a significant long-term

opportunity for SME UAV manufacturers and for manufacturers who see civil and commercial as

strategic markets. The current major UAV manufacturers are essentially defence-orientated

manufacturers and are geared to relationships and procurement processes focussed on stable,

long-term defence customers. Defence market dynamics are characterised by long-development

lead-times, high technological sophistication, expensive bulk purchases and an ongoing

relationship that involves MRO, training and sporadic upgrades. The likely civil and commercial

markets for UAVs are likely, in contrast, to be characterised by off-the-shelf purchases, short

investment cycles, small contract sizes, low technological sophistication and a less involved

relationship with the end-user after the initial purchase and introduction of a UAV system.

This means smaller manufacturers may be able to be more flexible and dynamic in this market.

However, in the short-term the only UAV systems that demonstrably can do civil and commercial

tasks are based on military models. Very often, these remain too expensive for the emerging UAV

markets, even when stripped of the most expensive payloads and data links military customers

demand. Furthermore, these manufacturers continue to concentrate on military markets. Although

there is some interest in these new markets from established UAV manufacturers, in terms of

resources and real engagement there is little to suggest that they are willing or able to orientate

themselves to take advantage. This is a restriction on the market because currently these are the

players who are best placed to demonstrate the utility of UAV technology and allocate resources to

develop UAV systems specifically for the civil and commercial UAV market.

Simply put, this market is not foreseen to be attractive at this stage to a number of large defense

manufacturers. In particular, the more diffuse nature of the market and the small contracts that will

result may well not be attractive to large defence contractors who enjoy contracts that are very

often over US$100m. While there is undoubtedly interest and awareness of many aspects of the

civil and commercial market in these organisations, resources and investments are skewed towards



defence customers given the greater visibility in the military market and the larger contracts that are

currently available. Current UAV manufacturers may struggle to orientate their UAV businesses to

dominate the civil and commercial market, particularly in its early stages, if they remain unaware of,

or unable to fully appreciate the large long term potential of the civil and commercial market over

the next 30 years.

4.1.5 Market Challenges

4.1.5.1 Introduction TABLE 4-3 CIVIL AND COMMERCIAL UAV MARKETS: MARKET CHALLENGES (EUROPE), 2006 - 2015

Rank Challenge 1 Building UAV Awareness

2 Creative Marketing

3 Customisation

4 Development of Viable Business Models


4.1.5.2 Building Awareness As the drivers and restraints outlined above make clear, building awareness and also confidence

among potential end-users will be crucial in determining the speed with which the civil and

commercial market in Europe develops.

The key to this process will be a creative approach and one that includes potential end-users at

every possible stage of system development. Building confidence in the capabilities and reliability

of UAV systems is also essential. Coordinated efforts will be a very effective way for the UAV

community to build awareness among potential end-users and also in attracting government, EU

and venture capital investment funds.

4.1.5.3 Creative Marketing Creative marketing involves raising awareness and confidence as outlined above. However, it also

involves actively seeking out customers and aggressively promoting UAV capabilities and potential

cost savings. Once again this is much harder for SMEs in terms of resources and expertise.

However, in a market that will be characterised by low customer awareness for some time to come,

the marketing aspects associated with the civil and commercial UAV markets cannot be neglected

for too long if the market is to reach its potential over the next decade.



4.1.5.4 Customisation The list of potential civil and commercial markets is a long one with relatively little commonality

between each market’s requirements beyond the obvious UAV capabilities and advantages. This

suggests that the optimum design for a UAV system to be successful in these markets is a generic

vehicle incorporating sufficient flexibility and redundancy so as to be able to be customized to

perform a variety of different missions in different markets. This also applies within markets as well.

For example, the requirements for forest fire detection, forest fire management and general forestry

management have different operation ‘envelopes’ and different requirement in terms of sensors and

flight patterns.

If UAV systems are only developed for very specific civil and commercial tasks, models that cannot

easily be transferred across markets, the market as whole will advance only fitfully. Conversely, the

experience of established UAV manufacturers in tentatively looking to enter the civil and

commercial market suggests that a level of flexibility to enable customization and sensitivity to

customers’ specific needs will be required.

4.1.5.5 Development of Viable Business Models Perhaps the biggest area of uncertainty in forecasting the future civil and commercial UAV market

regards what will be the predominant, and therefore most optimal business model to exploit the

opportunities that lie ahead. More thinking needs to be done to assess whether the SMEs that

have the ability to benefit from a disruptive innovation such as UAV systems will be best advised to

be merely manufacturers, providers of a wide range of UAV services or to concentrate on

innovative and extensive after-sales support.

PPU (Pay Per Usage) is one particular business model that has been suggested and indeed has

been adopted by at least one UAV firm active in commercial markets. It’s obvious value at this

stage of the market’s development is that it removes the operational uncertainty and financial risk

from the client, making it that much more attractive. In any case, many of the roles that manned

aircraft currently perform are outsourced in any case, which suggests that current providers of

aerial services should be viewed as potential customers as well as the actual purchaser of the

service.

Another similar option is one that is being pursued by the Australian authorities. In encouraging

bids utilizing UAVs for a coastal surveillance contract, the Australian government is looking to

outsource the bulk of its off shore patrol duties to a service provider. By encouraging bids involving



UAVs, to which two companies have responded, it is clear that over the life of the 15-year contract,

UAV systems offer cost savings over and above manned aircraft.

4.1.6 Quantifying the Market The future European civil and commercial UAV market presents certain difficulties in terms of

forecasting, aside from the fact that the UAV systems market in these areas does not even exist in

any shape as yet.

The main difficulty is assessing such disparate markets which all have very different dynamics and

within which, the UAV market will function in different ways. Essentially, there will be a difference

between procurement markets and service markets. In this study we have therefore assessed

different markets according to these characteristics but will aggregate them all to make up ‘The

European Civil and Commercial UAV Market’, as service revenues and UAV systems revenues are

essentially the same market. Certainly, it is likely that those wishing to enter this market should be

prepared to be able to offer UAV services as well as off-the-shelf sales of systems, which will be

operated by the customer. In this study, earth observation and pipeline monitoring have been

regarded as service markets and the rest as being largely procurement markets.

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Euro

mill

ions

FIGURE 4-1 THE TOTAL MARKET FOR CIVIL AND COMMERCIAL UAV MARKETS IN EUROPE, 2006-2015

As such, Frost and Sullivan estimates the civil and commercial market in Europe (compromising all

eight of the markets discussed in this report) to be worth €1.2bn between 2006 and 2015.



The market will grow particularly fast once certification and ATM regulations are established which

is likely to be around 2009 - 2010. The reason for the ‘dip’ in 2014 is largely due to the

methodology of this study and does not represent an overall market decline. The total market is a

summary of the eight markets in this study, which are derived from identifying distinct market

opportunities rather than from assumed growth rates. Furthermore, the wide differences in price

between, for example, 100Kg UAV systems and HALE systems explain some of the uneven

growth. Finally, it should be kept in mind that the next ten years represents only the initial stage of

what will be a much larger market that is unlikely to reach maturity in terms of growth rates before

2030.

TABLE 4-4 THE TOTAL MARKET FOR CIVIL AND COMMERCIAL UAV MARKETS IN EUROPE, 2006-2015

Revenues Year (€ Million)

2006 8.4 2007 15.5 2008 30.7 2009 51.3 2010 87.8 2011 137.2 2012 168.8 2013 205.8 2014 203.1 2015 270.4


The market for earth observation is likely to be the largest market (37%) largely because it is in fact

several markets in one. Telecommunications (13%), border patrol (11%), coastal patrol (13%) and

forest fire management (12%) will comprise between 11% and 14% each, with powerline (5%),

pipeline monitoring (6%) and law enforcement (3%) taking a smaller share.

TABLE 4-5 CIVIL AND COMMERCIAL UAV MARKETS IN EUROPE, 2006-2015

Revenues Year (€ Million)

Earth Observation 442.6 Maritime Surveillance 156.2 Telecommunications 150.0 Forest Fire Management 136.5 Border Patrol 124.7 Pipeline Observation 75.4 Powerline Maintenance 60.1 Law Enforcement 35.2 Total 1,179




Telcoms13%

Forest Fire12%

Borders11%

Coastguard13%

Law Enforcement

3%Powerline

5%Pipeline6%

Earth Observation

37%

FIGURE 4-2 THE TOTAL MARKET SHARES FOR CIVIL AND COMMERCIAL UAV MARKETS IN EUROPE, 2006-2015

4.2 CRITICAL FOCUS: OPERATING UAVS IN CIVILIAN AIRSPACE: CURRENT AND FUTURE OPTIONS

4.2.1 Introduction As much of the rest of this project makes clear, the requirement for UAV systems to operate in

regulated airspace is a crucial prerequisite of establishing a substantial civil and commercial

market. However, it is only in the past year or so in Europe that serious efforts at the necessary

level have been initiated in order to start the process of integrating UAV operations.

The two main subdivisions for airspace are VFR – Visual Flight Rules and IFR – Instrument Flight

Rules. As their name clearly state, these environments are relying on either vision or instruments as

main tools for the pilot. In essence, the split between these two environments correspond to places

where commercial aviation flies and the airspace used by other aircraft. IFR relates to the field of

larger airports and en-route flying routes (between 25,000 and 45,000 ft in most European

Countries). VFR is all the places where no external air traffic control exists, allowing Ultra-Light

Aircraft, Helicopters or any other general aviation (GA) aircraft to fly. This is the area where most

UAV civil and commercial applications will be operating. However, to some degree, the problems

UAVs are facing are not that different in both environments and while current technologies can offer

solutions for IFR, it gets harder in VFR.



4.3 OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENTS

The real basic operational requirement for UAVs to fly in civilian airspace is to conform to general

certification rules. For Air Navigation Services Providers (ANSPs) it does not appear desirable to

create specific rules for UAVs compared to the other users. The need for UAVs to be certified for

flying is in the hands of EASA* or FAA* and when certified for that, their integration in the airspace

will be based on their ability to conform to general flying rules; not more, not less.

The main issue for UAVs, therefore, is to interact with other flying objects to avoid near-miss

accidents and ultimately collisions. It all comes down to combined: “See & Avoid” and “Situational

Awareness”.

4.3.1 Situational awareness Sharing an environment with other users in the air requires two disciplines; knowing that there are

other aircraft around you but also in turn providing them with the knowledge of your presence near

their flying route. This information is either given to pilots directly in VFR or Air Traffic Controllers in

IFR. VFR implies that the pilot can see you, therefore no technical equipment will be required on

board the aircraft. IFR, being based on instruments, does however represent a technological

challenge. As, by definition, UAVs do not have a visual pilot and that much of their utility lies in

their ability to operate beyond visual range autonomously, the solution for UAVs must be

instrument-based, even if the aircraft, with which it is sharing VFR airspace, relies on visual means.

Situational awareness is not only the awareness of the UAV or UAV pilot of its position but is also

the awareness of the surrounding aircraft. In VFR, it is visual and refers to the ‘see’ in “See and

Avoid”. For IFR the general awareness comes through visual identification of targets but more

commonly through the capacity of the pilot to hear the radio communication with other pilots

surrounding his aircraft. In the case of a UAV, it can create a problem if communications are

handled on the ground between the pilot and the Air Traffic Control Centre. In that case the other

pilot will not be aware of the moves that will be imposed on the UAV by ATC and thus miss a part of

the information that is vital for continued safe flight. Broadcasting a command in the air on VHF,

even if it is considered as very useful by pilots, is not realistic on the long run as radio frequencies

are getting more and more crowded and options like Data-link communications are being

investigated to reduce radio load.



4.3.2 See & Avoid While part of situational awareness for VFR, See & Avoid is absolutely critical in IFR if any incident

occurs. Skies are crowded above Europe and many other areas in the world, and any actions taken

in the air can impact the other flying objects’ flight path. On the 23rd of August 2005, an Airbus 340

and a Boeing 737 came within 60 meters above Hungary. A collision was avoided only because of

the combined intervention of TCAS* and the pilots’ fast reactions. This capacity to “see” the other

object and “avoid” it is critical and UAVs will have to behave like any other aircraft in this regard. For

this near miss, technology was the answer and the use of it is probably a realistic technical solution

for UAVs.

4.3.3 Realistic options – Technological Solutions To remain realistic for the next five to ten years, it seems reasonable to forget VFR areas where

avionics equipment is virtually non-existing for aircraft flying VFR. This assumption, based on the

fact that UAV have to fly like any other aircraft, might be proven wrong by the will of some ANSPs

to close their Airspace in certain areas or at certain levels or at certain times, which, except for a

crisis, is not likely to occur.

For IFR or controlled space, the situation is completely different, as technology can serve UAV

operations to make them part of the global commercial transport community. Their behaviour can

be made 100% comparable to the other aircraft like their operational capabilities. Among

technologies that exist today, some can serve as the basis for defining acceptable situational

awareness for the users and See & Avoid capability.

4.3.3.1 Situational Awareness Without going too far in the future with ASAS* or Data-link communication, solutions exists to

provide the same level of situational awareness as exists today between manned aircraft.

Experience, like the use of the UAV as a communication relay with the “ground pilot”, does provide

a satisfactory solution.

As a next step the uses of ADS-B* transponders and CDTI* will offer a clear situation awareness,

but it is still a step that Manned Aircraft have to take and implementing such a technology in UAVs

would prove useless. More than just reducing the payload capacity it would also be based on non-

definitive ADS-B technology and would have to be replaced fairly soon compared to the product

lifecycle.



Having said that, the Manned Aircraft pilot situation awareness in controlled airspace is a comfort,

not a requirement, and even if it seems difficult to state it is useless, as it refers to safety, normal

operation can run without it. If ADS-B is fully implemented, it will become a requirement but current

solutions investigated are technology based and offer an option for UAVs.

4.3.3.2 See & Avoid The ‘see and avoid’ capability is much more critical, as it is the last safety net for controlled

airspace. Once again, existing technologies offer solutions that can be implemented in UAVs or

UAV system in their basic form, although they will require substantial modification.

Beyond normal operations where Air Traffic Controllers can perform their task with all due safety,

TCAS offers the ultimate ‘see & avoid’ capability to the pilot. It provides the pilot with a 1-3 minute

warning for approaching targets, and indicates the airspace zone to avoid, assuming that this target

is also equipped with TCAS as is mandatory in European airspace. Implementing this technology in

UAV systems is already under evaluation and is part of conforming to existing air navigation rules.

This would provide the UAV only or the pilot and the UAV in conjunction with valid information

(‘see’) and the required action for both objects (‘avoid’).

However, transferring this solution to VFR or uncontrolled areas is not realistic with the current

requirements for aircraft in this area. Experience based not on non-cooperative TCAS but laser-

based “direct environment surveillance” implemented in UAVs is under evaluation. This would offer

the UAV only, with the information (‘see’) and relevant action (‘avoid’). TCAS-type safety

technology, either cooperative or non-cooperative, a valid option for the “See & Avoid” capability.

Range for these systems satisfies safety requirements and the vibration related to a rapid descent

(assuming it would be possible with no traffic below) is not a constraint for an unmanned vehicle.

Some other technologies, on top of normal Air Traffic Management can offer earlier prevention tools

and would be an asset to get the approval for flying from ANSPs, for example TIS-B. TIS-B is a

solution developed for areas where less than 100% of aircraft are (as today and most probably for

the next decade) ADS-B equipped. The current air traffic management situation (position of other

aircraft, intent, altitude, etc…) is uploaded to the cockpit with the information on all flights. This has

been developed to provide information to those relying on CDTI on aircraft that are not ADS-B

capable. Providing this type of information to the flight computer of a UAV system (border

surveillance, forest fire management) would probably provide the UAV with the capability to

calculate its route with the lowest risk of near miss.



4.4 CRITICAL FOCUS: KEY END MARKETS

4.4.1 Forest and Forest Fire Management

4.4.1.1 Introduction Forest fires in Europe are an increasing phenomenon and are a growing threat to people, homes

and the rural environment. It is also a market that has already attracted a substantial amount of

attention from the UAV community, which has generated a considerable degree of interest in those

agencies involved in spotting and managing forest fires. As such, it is expected that this will be one

of the first applications for UAVs, with trials already well advanced in the US and, more importantly

for the European market, in Portugal, Switzerland, Hungary and Croatia.

4.4.1.2 The Mission Due to the size and damage costs that forest fires can reach, the management of incidents needs

to be swift and decisive. The propagation of a forest fire, from its ignition to its high flame state, can

take a matter of minutes. This has produced a need for rapidly deployable sensors that can detect,

identify and track even the smallest fires across areas of the order of hundreds of square

kilometres. Current manned platforms have very restrictive loitering capability with a maximum of

four hours. Furthermore, the time from take-off to arrive ‘on station’ is substantial, as aircraft tend

to operate from regional airstrips, which restricts the utility of manned aircraft in tracking or spotting

forest fires. Not only is loiter time a factor in managing fires but it also crucial in fire prevention.

In assisting the actual operation of fire fighting, UAVs will be useful in tracking the course of the fire.

In particular, the ability of UAVs to go in amongst smoke where visibility would otherwise be poor

and collect visual information will considerably assist the overall fire-fighting effort.

4.4.1.3 Drivers

Rapid Deployment

Following ground detection of bush fires, by either human visual or sensor detection, airborne

monitoring of spreading bush fires may take a significant time to achieve using manned aircraft,

often based a long distance away from the hot spot. Man-portable UAVs are already under

investigation by forest fire services in the US and Europe as alternatives to manned aircraft, by

giving fire fighter teams a rapid-launch airborne surveillance capability. Due to the unpredictable

nature of bush fires, a rapidly deployable method of monitoring changes in direction and intensity is



needed, and UAVs can provide this capability, with lightweight imaging systems and short

endurance, making them easily carried by any fire fighter teams.

Force Multiplier

UAV systems will not replace all manned aircraft used in forest fire management. Clearly, UAVs

are some way off from having the payload capacity to drop water in large quantities on affected

areas. However, UAVs will also not be able to match the flexibility of many manned aircraft, which

can perform more than one task.

Despite this, UAV systems will have a wider role aside from simply as sensors. The use of UAVs of

whatever size will act as considerable force multipliers, not just in the air, but also across the full

spectrum of response. In a purely observation role UAVs will be able to give earlier warning to

enable a more rapid and coordinated response. Once a fire has caught hold, UAV systems will

also be able to provide persistent information in dangerous areas, to accurately track the path of the

fire. UAV systems are easily adapted to be local communication relays, which could be highly

useful for coordinating ground and air assets in the confusion and low visibility of a forest fire

situation.

Safety

Manned aircraft used in forest fires have a relatively high accident rate, which is not surprising

given the smoke, heat and often crowded airspace in which helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft have

to operate. Two aircrew were killed in France this summer.

Obviously, unmanned aircraft reduce some of the risk. However, UAV systems must first

demonstrate beyond a doubt that they would not add to the danger in congested airspace, given

that they will be operating alongside manned aircraft.

4.4.1.4 Restraints

Current Inventories

Civil response agencies currently have extensive aircraft inventories and, with the increasing

incidence of forest fires over recent years, these have been upgraded in a number of cases, most

notably the acquisition by the French Securité Civile of EC-145s. Many of these aircraft have been

purchased because of their long durability and flexibility.



Flexibility

As previously mentioned, the current aircraft used for forest fire management have inherent

flexibility. In particular, twin-engine helicopters can be used as transport, spotters and to carry

water for fire fighting. UAV systems do not have this similar inherent flexibility. Outside of the

forest fighting market, it should also be remembered that many of these aircraft are not just used for

forest fires but for other civil duties.

Operations alongside Manned Aircraft

The skies above a forest fire situation are generally highly congested airspace. The management

of aircraft performing forest fire tasks is already a complex operation with the inherent chance of

collisions and crashes. UAV systems, as they currently operate, do not have sufficient ‘sense and

avoid’ capability to be able to operate in such an environment. Until such time as this is developed

to a sufficient level, UAVs will not be able to be considered for use in significant numbers.

Data Processing

UAV-mounted sensors will gather much more information than manned aircraft, given their superior

loitering capabilities. A restraint will therefore not be the UAV systems themselves but the expense

associated with processing and analyzing the information collected by the end-user.

4.4.1.5 Market Forecast Frost and Sullivan estimates the market for UAV systems in forest fire applications to be €137m

between 2006 and 2015. This forecast is derived from an assessment of current aircraft inventories

in Europe for forestry and forest fire observation, an estimation of the type of UAV system required

adjusted by a factor of interest and understanding of potential end-users within the relevant

countries.



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Euro

s m

illio

n

FIGURE 4-3 THE TOTAL MARKET FOR FOREST FIRE MANAGEMENT UAVS IN EUROPE, 2006-2015

It is likely that UAV systems will begin to be used for this mission early in the period, in 2007. There

are a number of countries keen to assess the capabilities of UAVs, Portugal most notably among

them, who is likely to procure a small number of systems in the near future to further assess their

utility and UAV concepts of operations in this area. Frost and Sullivan anticipates that these will

produce generally favourable results paving the way for extensive procurement once UAV

capabilities have been demonstrated in an operational environment. The recent problems with

forest fires in a number of countries will be a strong motivating factor in the relatively early adoption

of UAV systems in this market.

The market, as it matures, will be made up of a mixture of mini UAVs, for use alongside other

assets to manage fire fighting. MUAVs will make up 74% of the market at around 205 units. Larger

UAV systems of equivalence to Tactical UAV systems in the military will make up a further 28% of

the market or 27 air vehicles. This market will be restricted to those countries with major forest

areas and will be used to spot fires utilizing their long endurance, as well as assisting in the actual

fighting of established fires.

4.4.2 Border Patrol

4.4.2.1 Introduction Border patrol is likely to be one of the first applications that will see UAV systems used. This is for



three reasons. Firstly, the mission itself is ideal for UAV systems as it places a premium on long

endurance. Secondly, many of the agencies that are involved in border patrol are military or

paramilitary bodies. Thirdly, illegal immigration and the threat of terrorism mean that funding has

been made available for ‘homeland security’, including substantial EU funds for new and aspirant

EU members.

4.4.2.2 The Mission Borders are monitored and protected by border patrol forces, which use video cameras, ground

sensors, physical barriers, land vehicles and manned aircraft. The diverse nature of this border

defense is challenged by an equally diverse array of threats, ranging from terrorists to drug

smugglers, arms dealers, and human trafficking. More recent issues in securing borders have been

concerning fears that terrorists could exploit existing border vulnerabilities by crossing illegally.

In the past, offenders have found it easiest to enter countries through mountainous, remote border

areas at night where manned airborne surveillance is deemed to dangerous to undertake. The most

recent examples of UAV applications are the trials conducted by the U.S. Customs & Border Patrol

along the U.S. border with Mexico and Russia’s acquisitions of UAVs from Israel for security

applications. Other areas where issues of border security have been raised and UAVs could have a

role to play in Europe: Greece-Albania, Poland-Belarus, Romania, and elsewhere, including

Australia’s outlying Islands and India-Bangladesh borders.

4.4.2.3 Drivers

Persistent surveillance

Remote and rugged terrain often limits ground patrols in achieving complete surveillance of borders

and illegal immigrants often use this to their advantage. Manned aircraft are an expensive solution

and can often be limited to daylight flights as well as by pilot endurance. UAVs can offer complete

coverage in all weather, day or night, for many hours and can alert ground border security forces to

incidents as they occur.

Real-time monitoring

High-resolution optical cameras, combined with infrared modes and even radar, enable data links to

transmit real-time footage of required areas, in virtually all weather conditions, day or night. Ground

operators can then choose to fly in for a closer look at a suspected incident and co-ordinate ground



forces to deal with the situation as, or even before, events develop.

4.4.2.4 Restraints

Unclear Level of operational costs

Many potential end-users, for example, border police, see the cost-savings offered by UAVs in

terms of operation and maintenance costs. However, frequent operations will require setting up a

completely new maintenance infrastructure and training personnel in the field of UAV maintenance.

Therefore, it is still unclear as to how much of a saving a large UAV fleet could offer. The military

segment has seen cost savings as well as cost overruns concerning UAV development and

operations, confirming the difficulties posed when attempting to assess the costs. Many states that

require border surveillance and security systems do not have the necessary funding to initiate and

support projects, and cost remains a hurdle for the market.

Alternative Remote Sensors

Some border security forces today utilise ground motion sensors to alert forces to trespassers.

Ground-based Electro-optic and infrared sensors are often placed in areas to alert security forces of

illegal movement. While UAVs offer a larger field of view for beyond perimeter surveillance, they

cannot substitute for wall-mounted security systems.

Data Processing & Dispersal

Due to restraints such as bandwidth, processor power, and lack of standardised interfacing,

processing information from multiple UAV sensors and dispersing information to ground elements is

limited. Efforts, to increase reliability by enhancing integration, results in increased costs.

Advantages of integration such as less wiring and fewer connections increase reliability of the

whole system in the long term. In general, integrating sensor & processor modules, as well as data

dispersal to fire fighter teams via hand held P.C. units, will likely be the most expensive processes

incurred by UAV manufacturers.

4.4.2.5 Market Forecast The market for UAV systems for border patrol, may well be one of the first UAV markets to develop

but the market will be small, given the relatively short amount of land border that will feasibly be

needed to be monitored by air assets and the extensive land-based sensors that proliferate in



Europe. The European borders that Frost and Sullivan estimates will require air assets for

surveillance is just 6,166 km comprised mainly of the EU and future EU borders to the east and

some others such as Greece’s border with Albania.

A further restriction of the market is that in Europe only TUAV systems are likely to be required,

unlike in the US where MALE systems are the most likely candidates. This is because, although

the total border length may be equivalent to the US borders, it is split between several countries

that will be responsible only for their section. In no case does this warrant a MALE UAV system

whose capabilities will be beyond what is required and whose price may also be beyond what is

acceptable.

Frost and Sullivan estimates the UAV market for border patrol to be worth €123m between 2006

and 2015. The largest markets are likely to be in Poland and Finland. The market will develop

relatively quickly, with the bulk of acquisitions occurring between 2010 and 2013.

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FIGURE 4-4 THE TOTAL MARKET FOR BORDER PATROL UAVS IN EUROPE, 2006-2015

4.4.3 Maritime Surveillance

4.4.3.1 Introduction Maritime surveillance is already a substantial market for UAV systems, given the US Coast Guard’s

acquisition of 68 Eagle Eye systems. Most UAV systems for coastal patrol and duties will not be



tilt-rotor VTOL systems as these will be beyond the financial resources of similar bodies in Europe.

4.4.3.2 The Mission Coastal surveillance relies on the principle of 'security through depth'. Patrol aircraft (both military

and customs) use a combination of visual and electronic detection methods (including powerful

search radar, heat-detecting infrared sensors, searchlights, and high-resolution video cameras —

the latter being useful for tracking suspect smuggling vessels as well as recording fisheries and

pollution violations.) The goal is to find the alien vessel or aircraft and respond well before it can

reach shore or overfly the country. Patrol boats of the Customs Marine Fleet can intercept smaller

vessels while, as mentioned above, naval frigates intercept larger ships. Military patrol aircraft are

regularly made available for the detection of both airborne and seaborne intruders. Finally, aircraft

have to be able to operate in extreme weather conditions.

4.4.3.3 Drivers

Persistent Surveillance

UAV systems offer a clear advantage over manned aircraft in terms of their endurance and this is a

key capability for coastal and maritime surveillance. Much of the patrol work is routine and

uneventful, covering wide stretches of water. This necessitates long missions and, in manned

aircraft, is limited by human fatigue. UAVs have a considerable advantage in being able to stay

aloft for far longer and also to be able to track and monitor specific targets for long periods.

Increasing Scope of Maritime Surveillance

Civil bodies charged with coastal and maritime surveillance have seen an influx of funds over the

past decade as the importance of their task has grown. Illegal immigration, fishing disputes,

terrorism and the general increase in sea-borne trade has put these organizations on the front line

of several key environments.

UAVs offer many capabilities that can help with the greater burden. UAV systems can complement

current manned assets as well as replace them, for example spotting, tracking and cueing-in

manned surface and air assets onto targets of interest.

Rapid Deployment

UAVs can be launched within seconds from a land or vessel-base, with high-speed cruise to an



area for long endurance search activities. Typically, upon call-outs, Coast Guard aircraft often take

approximately fifteen minutes to get airborne and underway to a target area. UAVs can save

surface vessels and manned aircraft much time by providing rapid search capabilities and co-

ordinating with surface vessels and manned aircraft, directing rescue services straight to a target.

Given the vast distances over which aircraft have to operate in a maritime environment, the time to

get ‘on-station’ is critical as it can take a manned aircraft between 1-2 hours to arrive which also

effects their loitering period and ability to track targets over long periods of time.

4.4.3.4 Restraints

Integration

Many questions surround the issue of integrating a UAV fleet with manned aircraft to provide a

comprehensive search and rescue service. In particular, current manned Coast Guard aircraft

utilise directional finders to home in on distress beacons. Issues exist such as whether UAVs can

be fitted with navigation to locate these beacons and cruise at high speed to them, while at the

same time co-ordinating via UHF/SATCOM links with fixed-wing and helicopter units to enhance

their flight times to the target.

Flexibility

A key capability of manned SAR aircraft is the ability to not only locate persons or ships in distress,

but to also offer immediate rescue aids upon identification. For example, aircrews on board the

Nimrod fixed wing aircraft can locate stranded persons and drop life-saving equipment to them, and

helicopters can even winch them up to safety. UAVs at this point are not large enough to carry life-

saving equipment and therefore cannot offer any kind of rescue aids upon immediate identification

of a person who would need them.

Diffused Customer Base

In many European countries, several civil, military or paramilitary agencies have responsibility for

coastal and maritime surveillance. In some ways, this complex web of responsibilities may aid UAV

procurement given that budgets for the military are generally higher for platform acquisitions.

However, there is a strong likelihood that this diffuse structure will limit the ability of agencies to

pool resources in order to finance UAV system acquisitions, meaning that the market may well be



smaller than might otherwise have been the case.

4.4.3.5 Market Forecast Frost and Sullivan analysis reveals that UAVs, principally MALE UAV systems, will begin to replace

current inventories of fixed-wing aircraft operated by Coast Guards and customs services in several

countries in Europe. The market will be worth €156m between 2006 and 2015.

This market will not include VTOL UAVs or any replacements of current helicopter inventories.

These aircraft have a vital SAR (search and rescue) role and UAV systems simply cannot approach

their versatility.

The largest individual markets will be in the large maritime nations such as the UK, France and

Spain, but the Italian market will also be sizeable and Italy is also likely to be an early adopter of

UAV systems in this role.

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FIGURE 4-5 THE TOTAL MARKET FOR MARITIME SURVEILLANCE UAVS IN EUROPE, 2006-2015

4.4.4 Law Enforcement

4.4.4.1 Introduction Law enforcement applications for UAV systems have received considerable interest from law



enforcement agencies in the US, Israel, Holland and Australia. However, the use of UAV systems

for law enforcement might prove problematic in a European context.

4.4.4.2 The Mission There are a variety of law enforcement missions that have been suggested for UAVs. Traffic

monitoring is one and has actually been implemented on an ad hoc basis in Switzerland, when the

Swiss police requested the use of the Air Force’s Ranger UAVs during particularly busy parts of the

summer, as well as in the US and Israel as part of trials. Secondly, crowd and riot control, as well

as general surveillance, are other possible applications. Finally, the use of mini UAVs by police

officers before they approach a potentially dangerous situation or crisis area has been suggested.

Currently, almost all airborne police tasks in Europe are done by helicopter, which are generally

equipped with visual cameras, IR sensors as well as spotlights. Police helicopters are not as

numerous as might be apparent to those who live in major cities, with 3-4 being considered a

sufficient helicopter inventory for law enforcement purposes. Flexible but expensive platforms,

again twin-engine helicopters, built to a high specification, are the norm for police forces across

Europe and can be used for each of the tasks outlined above. Typical acquisition costs are €4 -

€5.5 million per helicopter with operational costs that can reach €1 million per year.

4.4.4.3 Drivers

Endurance

Endurance can be a drawback for helicopters involved in some police tasks, for example crowd

monitoring. However, it should be noted that endurance is not a key component of most law

enforcement tasks. A traffic-monitoring mission or even car chase very rarely takes longer than

three hours, which a helicopter and crew can easily cope with.

Cost

Police helicopters are generally built to a high specification and are also packed with two or three

sensors. The total cost of a helicopter for a modern police force is between €4m and €5.5m with

operational costs running at between €450,000 and €1m per year. This is a considerable outlay but

it should also be borne in mind that these aircraft carry a heavy payload and are also used in a wide

range of tasks.

UAV systems would likely be much cheaper and also would cost less to run with the removal of the



observer as well as the pilot. Even a mixture of UAV systems and manned aircraft would allow

forces to reduce its manned aircraft inventory and make considerable savings.

All-Weather Capability

In most European countries, civil aviation authority regulations restrict low-level helicopter flights in

bad weather. UAVs will be available to fly 24hrs. daily year-round.

4.4.4.4 Restraints

Cultural Resistance

Much of the work, which airborne assets undertake for the police, takes place in an urban

environment. Police forces around the continent have a relatively higher sensitivity to potential

safety issues with UAVs than many other end-users. This suggests that there is a strong cultural

resistance to using UAVs in a law enforcement role.

Flexibility

Helicopters involved in law enforcement roles are expected to perform a number of roles from

observation, monitoring and tracking, search and rescue, crime scene investigation and also having

a general deterrence effect with its noise, loudhailer and spotlight.

UAV systems are not able to replicate this flexibility to anywhere close to the same degree and this

is a considerable hurdle for the UAV community to overcome in penetrating this market.

4.4.4.5 Market Forecast Given the interest of some police forces, Frost & Sullivan expects the market to be worth €40m,

€15m for mini-UAVs and potentially another €25m for small Tactical UAVs. The latter market will

only develop once regulations are in place. The outlook for the market for the longer term is likely,

however, to be much more substantial.



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FIGURE 4-6THE TOTAL MARKET FOR LAW ENFORCEMENT UAVS IN EUROPE, 2006-2015

4.4.5 Communications

4.4.5.1 Introduction The market for UAVs for communication is forecasted to be worth €150 million by 2015. From a

global perspective, High Altitude Very Long Endurance (HAVLE) UAVs are expected to account for

most of the total market revenues and Lighter-Than-Air (LTA) to the minority of the market. Growth

in this market largely depends upon the development of dedicated air platforms and establishment

of the necessary business operations. Moreover, the formation of this market and its growth depend

to a large extent, more than in the case of most other markets, on companies’ willingness to invest

in it - realising there is a need for about five years investment time before reaping the profits - and

their inclination to become a ‘service company’.

Technology for airborne 3G mobile, broadcasting and others (e.g. High Definition Television,

HDTV) is currently being examined. In any event, this is not a bottleneck for the growth in this

market. Having said that, these trials will allow companies involved, to gain quick wins once flights

of UAVs are regulated. Parallel to this effort, aerospace organisations are working on the

development of suitable platforms. Main challenges are flight altitude of at least 20k and endurance

of weeks if not months.

It should be noted that given the potential of the market the effort invested in it overall seems to be

limited.



Key challenges facing the companies wanting to explore this market include getting internal buy-in

and budgets for the development of solutions to a market that might only materialise in five to ten

years. From a European point of view, the challenge is even greater as first markets to materialise

will not be European.

4.4.5.2 The Mission Once established, commercial communication will be a novel niche in the aerospace market.

Manned aircraft has been fulfilling communications missions, mainly in the military domain, for

years now but not as ‘mass communication’ platforms (i.e. as tactical communication relay).

To be able to supplement and to replace base stations and satellites, UAVs will need to be able to

fly at 20km (65,000 feet), carry a payload of several hundreds kilograms, loiter for weeks and be

geo-stationary (or at least close to being geo-stationary).

According to F&S analysis, the market is expected to follow some business and technology trends.

On the technology side, emergence of more efficient solar array and lightweight fuel cell power

plants will become primary technology enablers extending endurance beyond the current capability

of hours and days into the weeks and months. This will also determine having electric motors based

propulsion systems. Configurations suggested by CAPECON and others might well be a good

indication for future designs yet at this stage it is hard to evaluate that.

Business-wise the market will be service-based. Communication suppliers (e.g. cellular operators)

are interested in the solution not the means. Even in the end, it is not likely that operators will be

interested in having these capabilities in-house. This implies the need for the establishment of the

appropriate providers.

To win opportunities in this market in 5 years, companies need to invest now.

While European companies are not doing so, their US counterparts are. Surprisingly, that is exactly

what has happened in the military UAV market leading to the market dominance of American and

Israeli systems. Yet, most European companies do not try to act as if they want to change this

situation or to prevent it from happening in other market niches (e.g. communications). Perhaps

UAVs are still seen as marginal fashionable phenomena and not a paradigm change. Perhaps they

are not willing or cannot make the necessary investment to make the change. Perhaps they do not

get enough institutional / governmental help so needed to make this change.

The critical success factors in the communications market for UAVs are different from those in the



military UAV market. This implies a great opportunity for lagging companies to finally close the gap.

This also opens the door for companies that were not involved so far in the UAV market to excel.

This market, similar to the rest of the civil and commercial market, is in a unique growth phase, as

on one hand it is emerging depending on radical paradigm change and on the other, on mainstream

technology. This means that it needs to grow, at the same time, through creativity, direction and

collaboration. It needs entrepreneurialism and at the same time, capital management and team-

based problem solving. Any successful growth will be relying at the same time on start-up

companies, SMEs, universities, well-established companies and governmental support.

Currently, AeroVironment is in the best position to become a world leader in this niche. Their

winning resources are based on having a strong backbone and steady cash flow (mainly through

the DoD), having the time aspect on their side, governmental support for funds and other (i.e.

through NASA) and last yet not least, a strong corporate sense of direction.

4.4.5.3 Drivers

Cost Savings

This could prove to be the most important driver in this market.

Analysis suggests that UAVs’ life cycle cost will be much cheaper compared to satellite and ground

sites. This is mainly due to lower procurement cost (i.e. ‘non-recurring expenditure’) and longer

lifetime compared to satellite and better coverage compared to ground sites. Furthermore, there is

the issue of cost of infrastructure in remote areas which can be critical in areas where base stations

are likely to frequent thefts (It should be noted that assumptions, mainly regarding running costs

and lifetime, are yet to be put to the test).

Flexibility

Remarkably, this market driver is the source of the advantage UAVs have over satellites, ground

base stations and LTA. While satellites cannot be routinely rerouted UAVs can. Though in theory

LTAs can be flexible, though much slower than UAVs, in practice, relying on large infrastructures,

they are to a large extent limited in flexibility (e.g. as LTAs are expected to be hundreds of meters

long, their hangers needs to be just as big. Also, they will require large inflating and deflating

equipment).



Scalability

This driver will pay its dividend from operational and business points of view. From an operational

point of view, the ability to support growing needs is an advantage and from a business point of

view this will allow to ‘build as you go’ financing and ploughing back profits.

Upgradeability

The day a satellite is launched, it is already carrying an aged payload technology, at least five year

old. Toward the end of their life, they carry payloads that are ten to 20 years old. UAVs have the

ability to be upgraded at no extra cost and as part of their normal maintenance process. In that

respect, they are like base stations.

Versatility

Same platforms can perform other missions at the same time or between missions e.g. as part of

disaster management, urban monitoring or homeland security (HLS). This means better utilisation

of the assets, or lower life cycle cost, and will allow an effective implementation of the ‘service

provider’ business model.

Reduced Health Risk

Ground base cell stations are consider by some as a health risk. Increasingly it becomes harder to

position them freely either by law or due to public opinion (e.g. schools). The ability to perform the

same mission ‘risk free’ will gradually become ever more attractive.

4.4.5.4 Restraints

Potential End Users Awareness

There will be no demand without awareness. Though trivial, it has so far not yet been seriously

addressed by most companies. This should come under companies’ overall long and mid-term

investment in their market and as part of their long and mid-term strategy plans.

Achieving clients’ awareness is not a ‘one off’ event. It is a long education process. Short of that, all

marketing efforts appear to be a ‘technology push’ (as opposed to the desired situation of creating a

market pull).



Regulations

Without adequate regulation, a civil market for UAV based communication will not be formed.

According to F&S analysis, at the beginning of the next decade (i.e.2011), these regulations will be

in place.

It is also worth mentioning that UAVs for communications are probably the easiest class of UAVs to

integrate in unrestricted airspace. That is because of their expected altitude of flight (i.e. above

commercial aviation) expected long endurance (implying less take-off and landings), and size

(allowing implementation of ‘manned’ COTS systems).

In the US, regulation for operation of UAVs at this altitude will be formed even earlier, that is in

approximately two years.

Business Focus

Currently most UAV players are geared to win opportunities in the military market. Consequently, it

boils down to low internal ‘buy-in’. This leads to low R&D investment, to low marketing investment

(which in turn leads to lack of end users’ awareness) and to lack of clear strategy for winning

opportunities in a future civil market.

Lead-times for developing this market, both from a technology and business point of view, are long,

which means that to be competitive in five years, companies should act now.

4.4.5.5 Market Forecast One cannot overstress the importance of the role, industry and regulating and other governmental

bodies have on determining the size of this market. As the need and the competitive advantage are

clear, the market size can exceed the F&S forecasted market. For the same reason, passiveness

will lead to either American companies winning the lion’s share of the market for UAV-based

communications in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Europe. The fact that cost savings are an

important revenue driver and at the same time not based on experience makes the need for case

studies before making investment decisions even more acute. It also depends on the joint effort of

several organisations and will not be initiated due to the success of one player.



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FIGURE 4-7 THE TOTAL MARKET FOR COMMUNICATIONS UAVS IN EUROPE, 2006-2015

The market for UAVs for communication is forecasted to be worth €150 million by 2015.

According to F&S analysis the fist communication node, consisting of one air vehicle at a value of

€25 million will be operational by 2012. According to this analysis, by 2015 there will already be six

operational air vehicles, supporting two nodes. It should be noted that this forecast is not based on

identification of specific opportunities.

According to F&S analysis, it is not likely that UAVs will be used for communication in Europe

before 2012 and that overall by 2015 there will be a demand for more that two nodes, i.e. six UAVs

at a value of €150 million. The first UAV-based communication node is likely to be established in

Asia, perhaps in Japan, South Korea or Singapore. Furthermore, it is likely that, within this

timeframe, two nodes will be established in Africa and one in the Middle East.

In all cases, the business model will be service-based.

4.4.6 Earth Observation

4.4.6.1 Introduction Earth observation is a less defined market than the other key UAV markets discussed. Earth

observation refers to a UAV system, most likely a HALE system, that can deliver the best aspects

of satellites, such as wide coverage and high endurance, combined with the precision, in terms of



both positioning and image quality, of manned aircraft. As with these platforms, the market that

UAVs will look to exploit is diverse, covering customers who demand imagery from areas such as

agriculture, urban planning, cartography, crisis management, real estate, road planning, pipeline

surveillance and supporting security agencies on land and at sea. As has been noted, a HALE

UAV platform operating in these markets may overlap with some of the markets that have already

been discussed.

However, the difference is that these platforms are unlikely to be dedicated solely to one area and

therefore, as customers in other markets may not want to be subject to the restrictions that sharing

a platform implies an earth observation, UAV systems will likely compliment and not displace other

UAV activities at lower altitudes.

4.4.6.2 The Mission Currently there is a well-established global market in satellite remote sensing, estimated by Frost

and Sullivan to be worth €5bn in 2005. Satellite operators in Europe utilize a network of satellites to

provide imagery at a variety of resolutions to a variety of customers in both civil and commercial

spheres. The sensors utilized are in most cases panchromatic cameras, but also multi-spectral

imagers and some SAR capability.

Nevertheless, the satellite remote sensing business is expensive to operate in, with high launch

costs passed onto the consumer, particularly for multi-spectral and SAR images. For example, a

typical hyper-spectral image would cost approximately €3,000. Companies operating in this area

also have data manipulation services on offer, to deliver images and information in a user-friendly

manner to customers.

A further drawback of satellite remote sensing operations is that timeliness is a constant issue.

Satellite constellations are unable to offer ubiquitous coverage and cannot guarantee images due to

the possibility of cloud cover. When this is the case, satellite imagery is supplemented by imagery

collected by manned aircraft, which are also expensive at approximately €450 to €600 per hour.

4.4.6.3 Drivers

Flexibility

Remote sensing satellites are bound to strict orbits, which restrict both their timeliness and

responsiveness. A HALE UAV system, once perfected, would be inherently more flexible, able to

loiter over an area of interest at the required moment.



A HALE system would also combine different sensors to provide a more detailed and varied picture

for customers. At present, satellites have yet to fulfill this requirement.

Cost

An integrated HALE UAV system should be cheaper to launch and manufacture than satellites

involved in similar roles. Stock imagery can be had "on the cheap", but, for example, a commercial

real estate firm may request a 1-foot resolution colour imagery of a specific location at a specific

time with a predetermined set of attribute data. The real estate company may only have a budget of

$5,000, but such a customized imagery and information product may costs between three and ten

times that amount, depending upon availability.

A UAV system, with lower launch, operation and re-routing costs, would be able to provide the

same image at a lower cost, perhaps more in line with small, ad-hoc users’ budgets.

Availability

Lack of availability is a key drawback for remote sensing satellites. Many of the end customer

markets find the inability of satellites to return quickly to the same location problematic, for example

in crisis management or agricultural monitoring, to name but two.

Furthermore, with the addition of a SAR payload, cloud conditions will pose less of a problem to

image collection than on satellites, and at a reasonable cost. Currently, satellite imagery needs to

be supplemented by manned aircraft flights when meteorological conditions block remote satellite

sensing.

Image Quality

A UAV payload can deliver images with between 15-20 cm resolution and 15-20 cm pixel size,

which no current satellite can match. High image resolution is an important component for many

end-users, in particular for urban planners, cartography, agricultural and vegetation mapping.

Frost and Sullivan has estimated the market for global remote sensing revenues up to 1 m

resolution between 2005 and 2010 as €2.1bn, of which Europe will make up approximately 30%,

with a CAGR of 8%. This market is currently underserved by the LEO satellite providers and will be

an entry point for prospective UAV remote sensing service providers.



4.4.6.4 Restraints

End User Needs Vary Widely

Another aspect is the many and varied end-user needs. Across a broad spectrum of military,

government and commercial users is a myriad of sensor, temporal and spatial resolution needs.

Thus, the ability to market to users in multiple applications is highly problematic. UAV service

providers will have to be subject either to diverse revenue streams or reliant on a select group of

customers who demand high-end imagery.

Existing Satellite Platforms

The remote sensing market for satellites is already well established and many of the data providers

in Europe also have sophisticated data refinement and analysis operations that add considerable

value to the imagery product.

High Technology Threshold

Perhaps the key barrier to UAV remote sensing markets is the technological challenges presented

by the platform itself. HALE UAV systems are the most complex of UAV systems to design,

manufacture and operate. They are also the most expensive.

Most problematic of all is to enable a HALE UAV to stay aloft for weeks or months at a time. A

power system and efficient flight control mechanisms present considerable challenges. This is

largely a question of integration of existing technologies in a high altitude platform, but none the

less complex for all that.

4.4.6.5 Market Forecast The market for earth observation is likely to be the largest potential market for UAVs, which is not

surprising in that it is a well established, global, commercial industry already. Using very

conservative assumptions and focusing on the sub-1 m resolution market, the market is likely to

reach €442m between 2006 and 2015, assuming the technological challenges can be overcome.

The 13’’ to 0.99m market is likely to be the most lucrative for UAV systems at €180m, with 1’’ to 1’

to be worth €187m and 1m- 2.9m market, of which UAV systems are likely to capture a smaller

share, will be worth €133m.



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FIGURE 4-8 THE TOTAL MARKET FOR EARTH OBSERVATION UAVS IN EUROPE, 2006-2015

4.4.7 Pipeline Observation

4.4.7.1 Introduction Pipeline monitoring is a relatively stable market with good prospects of market expansion. Demand

for gas in Europe is forecast to increase substantially leading to a significant increase in gas

consumption as a proportion of overall energy consumption. UAV operation is also well suited to

the demands of the task required.

4.4.7.2 The Mission Gas pipeline monitoring in Europe is currently done by helicopter or by walking along the length of

the pipeline. Inspection requirements differ but in most European countries, pipelines have to be

inspected regularly throughout the year to ensure pipeline integrity is not threatened by excavation,

building or other encroachment close to the pipeline itself. Leak detection is not as yet done

regularly from the air although LIDAR technology is being developed to produce a sensor that can

detect leaks from the air. The mission currently remains a purely visual exercise and relatively

simple. The expense comes from the necessity for frequent inspection.

Unlike powerline inspection, pipelines can be inspected from the air by aircraft flying at a much

faster speed and a much higher altitude, up to 250 kph at approximately 2,000 ft. Thus, costs are



much lower per line kilometer, between €3 and €5, while using ground-based teams is

approximately 4-5 times more expensive.

This market, given the stable conditions of the underlying gas transmission market, will be mainly

about capturing market share rather than exploiting new demand opportunities. This tends

therefore to place the emphasis on cost and service provision for UAV services companies wanting

to participate in these markets.

4.4.7.3 Drivers Simple Mission well Suited to UAV Systems

The linear nature of pipelines and the relatively simple parameters required for the mission (i.e.

speed and altitude) mean that the technological challenges are relatively small for this market. A

UAV system can be easily programmed to follow a straightforward route at speed. Furthermore,

the UAV system need not be a VTOL system but a fixed-wing system, which will have longer

endurance, less risk and may be cheaper.

Cost

A helicopter can currently observe between 1000 to 1200km per day given a cruising speed of

250kmh, operating for a maximum of five hours a day. A TUAV system would fly slower but for

longer as pilot fatigue would no longer be a factor. Furthermore, the costs, associated with paying

for an observer, such as insurance and salary, would be eliminated.

High Resolution Imaging Capacity

Electro-optics are more advanced than ever, and high-resolution imaging is widely available for

airborne applications at relatively low-cost. For pipeline survey applications, the level of

sophistication required is not very high, and high-resolution, wide-field-of-view, low power cameras

are now being used for a variety of applications.

End-User Interest

Pipeline monitoring is one of the few potential civil and commercial applications that has received

substantial interest from potential end-users. Gas transmission companies in France, Germany,

Russia and the US have conducted trials using UAV systems for pipeline monitoring.



4.4.7.4 Restraints

Safety Concerns

One aspect that will slow the market for UAVs in pipeline monitoring is concern over safety, which

is a function of the wider problem of certification and integration into civilian airspace. End-users

are understandably still concerned over the safety record of UAVs. In pipeline monitoring missions,

UAVs will be flying over inhabited areas and will have to be able to negotiate fixed and flying

objects on their flight path, such as power lines and other aircraft. A fully functional ‘sense and

avoid’ capability is therefore essential to exploiting the business opportunity presented by this

particular market.

4.4.7.5 Market Forecast The market for UAV pipeline monitoring will be small at approximately €16.3m. However, the entire

market for airborne pipeline monitoring is not large at under €100m.

The market for UAV pipeline monitoring will, however, grow steadily from 2009/2010 to capture an

estimated 40% of the entire pipeline monitoring market by 2015.

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FIGURE 4-9THE TOTAL MARKET FOR PIPELINE MONITORING UAVS IN EUROPE, 2006-2015



4.4.8 Powerline Maintenance

4.4.8.1 Introduction Powerline inspection is an ongoing necessity for electricity generating and transmission companies.

The market is currently substantial with very consistent and stable demand.

4.4.8.2 The Mission Powerline inspection is the process of inspecting the pylons and the insulators on the pylons

themselves. This is a process that can be done by foot patrol, which is time-consuming and costly.

Increasingly, the mission is being performed by helicopter.

Powerline monitoring is a mixture of routine observation, utilising an observer and a pilot flying at

10-15 Knots, and thermal inspection utilising a pilot with an IR camera flying at 50 Knots.

Essentially, the larger transmission lines are inspected once a year with smaller lines being

inspected once or twice every 3 years.

The helicopter itself needs to be powerful enough to withstand wind gusts that might push it into the

line itself, a very expensive accident should it occur. Thus, a twin-engine helicopter is the safe

optimum. The helicopter currently performs standard observation from a distance of 20ft. above the

ground and 10-15ft. up and right of the powerline itself. For IR camera surveillance, the helicopter

is able to stand off at a distance of 300-400ft. Given this proximity to the ground, there is also a

strong requirement to keep noise levels and disruption to livestock and the population at a

minimum, which often restricts the hours for use.

On average, a helicopter can cover between 130 and 150km per day depending on the type of

mission. A twin-engine helicopter typically costs between £400-500 per hour to hire.

The powerline monitoring business is a mixture of in-house aerial surveillance run by electricity

transmission companies and work contracted out to air service companies. Running costs over the

year for a typical large electricity company is in the region of €150m a year whereas contract work

is charged at between €600 - €750 an hour, or approximately €3,000 – €3,750 a day.

There are now major changes likely in terms of the electricity transmission business itself apart

from the possible impact of the decline of gas generating stations in parts of Europe. Having

increasingly preferred gas to coal-fired generating stations, the electricity generating industry is

likely to face increasing financial problems as the price of gas continues to rise. Thus, it is possible



that the industry increases its reliance on coal-fired stations, leaving the generating capacity with

little redundancy. In such a scenario, the integrity of transmission lines, particularly those directly

connected to coal-fired stations, will be vital to ensuring the continuity of supply given that there will

be little reserve generating capacity remaining. Powerline inspection will then become even more

important than it currently is.

4.4.8.3 Drivers

Cost

Given that monitoring requirements are a fixed cost for electricity companies, they have a particular

incentive to keep maintenance costs to a minimum, as this will have a direct effect on their margins.

As an example, for the UK it would cost approximately €450m for airborne monitoring costs for a

year and this includes any one-off capital expenditure in terms of replacing aircraft. A suitable

helicopter such as a Bell 407 would cost upwards of €1.1m.

At present these costs have a significant impact in such a low margin business as electricity

transmission. There is also little scope in terms of technology or new methods that would reduce

costs in the near term. However, a successful UAV solution does promise to be able to significantly

reduce the cost of powerline monitoring.

Safety

Operating at very close proximity to powerlines is very hazardous. Firstly, the aircraft has to be

able to cope with sudden gusts of wind that could blow the aircraft onto the line. Secondly,

intersections of lines mean that pilots have to concentrate hard to avoid flying into lines that bisect

each other.

The safety record of powerline survey in Europe has been reasonably good. However, accidents

have occurred which often have involved fatalities. Even if these are rare, the insurance costs for

such operations are a drain on overall budgets.

Noise

UAV systems are likely to be far quieter than twin-engine helicopters. This is not a trivial aspect of

powerline monitoring as, due to the sensitivities of both human beings and livestock, low-level,



aerial powerline monitoring is restricted in terms of hours so as not to disturb people living near the

line of flight. In the UK this means that the available flight time is between 9 AM and 4.00 PM and

such restrictions exist in other countries in Europe.

Endurance

Although there are 7 hours available for a helicopter to fly in, most helicopter pilots are restricted to

just 5 hours of flight in order to prevent fatigue which means a manned helicopter can only cover

approximately 130 -150Km a day or 6,000 low-voltage poles. A UAV system operating at the same

rate but for seven hours could therefore cover between 180 – 200Km or 8,400 poles by eliminating

the problem of pilot and observer fatigue.

4.4.8.4 Restraints

Technology

Ideally, a UAV system for powerline management would have the capability to perform routine

visual surveillance and also IR monitoring of pylons. In order to perform this mission safely and

with a degree of autonomy it would need to navigate its flight particularly in relation to the wires

itself. This will require a ’sense and avoid’ system, possibly a laser range finder or acoustic sensor,

to ensure a safe range of operation. The UAV is also likely to require considerable stability in order

to withstand and adjust to any sudden gusts of wind. The damage caused by contact with the line

would incur a considerable cost to repair. Finally, the UAV system must be large enough to able to

carry the weight of the sensors, whether a digital camera or IR camera.

These requirements present considerable design and manufacturing obstacles to the goal of

supplying a system at the right price. However, given the fact that a helicopter costs in the region

of €1m, that still puts most small UAV VTOL systems that currently exist within this price bracket.

Information Management

One of the reasons a visual observer instead of a camera is used for the majority of powerline

monitoring missions is due to the fact that electricity companies have problems analyzing the vast

amounts of data collected. Even an observer’s report takes a long time to be analysed, given that

an observer looks at approximately one pole every three seconds.

Powerline observation by a UAV system would inherently rely on image-based output, essentially



unfiltered. Handing over such data in a raw form would likely not be an acceptable practice for

most electricity transmission companies. Therefore, operators and manufacturers of UAV systems

for powerline monitoring need to develop a system by which the raw data can be filtered into

actionable information, either through on-board processing or processing at the ground station.

Even with this facility, time and therefore cost of processing imagery must be factored into the

overall budget.

4.4.8.5 Market Forecast The amount of electricity line to be monitored across Europe will remain broadly static over the next

decade. This means that the market for powerline surveillance will also remain largely consistent.

Frost and Sullivan believes the market for powerline monitoring will be worth €1.04bn. If this

market was to continue to be served by helicopters, the market for powerline air platform equipment

would be worth €341m over the next decade. According to Frost and Sullivan analysis, if the entire

market for powerline air platform equipment were to be captured by UAVs, given the lower price of

a VTOL UAV system suitable for the task, the market would be worth approximately €133m over

the next ten years. It has assumed however, given the challenges for the industry that need to be

overcome in that time, that UAV use will build to capture a substantial share of the market by 2015.

Frost and Sullivan therefore estimates the market of UAV powerline monitoring to be worth €59m

between 2006 and 2015.

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FIGURE 4-10THE TOTAL MARKET FOR POWERLINE MAINTENANCE UAVS IN EUROPE, 2006-2015



5 CIVIL UNMANNED VEHICLE – BUSINESS CASE EXAMPLES The recent success in military UAVs are also affecting the civilian market since manufacturers and

potential customers are gearing up for their introduction into the market place. However, the driver

for civil UAV induction into the market is foremost a need for a service, which the civil UAV can

provide cost effectively. This is obviously followed by the good business driver often termed

“affordability”. The affordability value for the customer requiring remote sensing is usually driven by

pixel size or pixel rate or rate of delivery/cost. A customer will normally use this to compare

between vendors of a similar service in order to determine which service to purchase.

Similarly, a customer requiring a communication relay station will weigh the alternative solutions

based on the cost of present solutions offered compared to those of future civil UAV solutions and

the cost of switching over to the alternative.

The approach adopted in order to introduce civil UAVs, is multi-layered – see Figure 5-1. These

layers are interconnected, since the business model will be based on viable applications and a

sound technological base that will provide the confidence needed in the civil UAV market. The

experience gained in the different technological arenas will make it possible to leverage this

knowledge and apply it to a low cost reliable application through the development of new emerging

technologies, in the short term. Technological breakthroughs will follow to meet the challenges in

the mid to far term.

It is important to perform an in depth study of clusters of applications/UAVs, with UAVs having the same "characteristics", to be analysed by experts groups. This will allow the possibility to further improve cost effectiveness through the clustering of applications

FIGURE 5-1 APPROACH TO CIVIL UAV INDUCTION



5.1 ASSUMPTIONS USED

The business case will be based on the customer target price, which will drive the manufacturers’

target cost125.

The assumption made is that civil UAVs are available, providing the following technological

challenges are overcome126:

Collision avoidance systems

Efficient propulsion systems

Very light weight composite structure

Advanced morphing aerodynamic structures

Advanced prognostic and diagnostic systems

High error tolerant systems with related high reliability

Fault recovery systems

Note: These technologies are not only civil UAV specific, but are dual technology issues worth addressing.

TABLE 5-1 CIVIL UAV REMOTE SENSING TECHNOLOGIES - BENEFITS AND DRAWBACKS

Technology Advantages Disadvantages Ground based surveillance

Foot patrol On hand to check condition of easement127, pipeline markers, their condition, and any activity near the pipeline. Can possibly equip patrols to have emergency repair equipment on hand. Foot patrols can deal in a limited manner with any small emergencies.

Terrain may hamper efficiency. Patrols are not frequent, in some cases more than 7 days elapsed before a revisit with an operation of 125 days of cleaning128. Need to carry sensing equipment along pipeline. Human resource intensive, which means where salaries are high the cost is equivalently high. Dull work for the foot patrol personnel. Dangerous if there is a gas leak or other contamination related to the transported material in the pipeline. Can be trapped in a forest fire with no overview as to the best direction to leave the endangered area.

125 See Ref. [ 56] 126 These are the main drivers for the civil UAV roadmap 127 A legal agreement to allow access for the purpose of construction and maintenance of a pipeline 128 See Ref. [ 80]



Technology Advantages Disadvantages Acoustic detection of impacts

Continuous monitoring. Localised installation of sensors. Can be used in conjunction with cathodic protection systems.

Detects rather than prevents damage. Has to be tuned to the particular pipeline due to background noise. Has to be sensitive enough to detect transient signal. Sensor spacing is an issue that may cause pricing problems. Limited to pipeline monitoring.

Cathodic protection monitoring129

Continuous monitoring possible. Long distances can be covered using this technique. Could be used in conjunction with acoustic protection systems.

Detects rather than prevents damage. Sensors are attached to the pipeline outside wall. Has to be sensitive enough to detect transient signal. Requires a physical break in pipeline coating for detection. Requires a minimum of breaks in pipeline coating to overcome false alarm rates. Not efficient with older pipelines. Needs a constant source of electrical power. Limited to pipeline monitoring.

Distributed Optical Fibre with optical time domain reflectometry

Miles of pipelines can be monitored from a given location. Continuous monitoring possible. Follows the pipeline contours. Very sensitive. Can distinguish individual events at different points along the optical fibre.

Continuous fibre must be installed along the pipeline. Methods to distinguish different hazards yet to be developed. Limited to pipeline monitoring.

Distributed Optical Fibre with interferometric detection

Continuous monitoring possible. Follows pipeline contours. Very sensitive.

Continuous fibre must be installed along the pipeline. Methods to distinguish different hazards yet to be developed. Cannot detect simultaneous events. Limited to pipeline monitoring.

Pressure sensors on the pipeline

Shows pressure drop across a specific length of pipeline.

May not pick up small leaks. Need for multiple sensors. A different pipeline transportation type requires adaptation of pressure systems. Limited to pipeline monitoring.

129 A system to eliminate corrosion at places of exposed bare metal pipe surface by forcing an electric current to flow through the

conductive soil towards that surface



Technology Advantages Disadvantages Mechanised patrols with a variety of sensors

Similar to the foot patrol Covers greater area than foot patrols. Can carry more equipment and supplies than the foot patrol.

Similar to foot patrol.

Pipeline strain monitoring130

Indicates land movement. Can aid in pipeline life calculations.

Multiple sensors required. Complex calibration required. Ambient effects may increase false alarms. Limited to pipeline monitoring.

Geotechnical monitoring131

Monitors land movements Localised measurement

Does not indicate actual pipeline condition. Does not sense the overall picture Need for entries into a database to receive an overall picture

Intelligent pigs132 Can be used to clean the pipeline internals. Can be used to monitor the pipeline internal condition. Can be used to map actual pipeline position due to land movement.

Need to insert and extract the pigs, causing flow delays, though shorter than other inspections. Can only be used in certain sections of pipeline. Cost intensive. Limited to pipeline monitoring.

Ground based visual surveillance

Can use COTS cameras and equipment

May be limited by field of view and may miss boring encroachment. A system is required in order to minimise the human resources for monitoring. Additional cameras for panning and zooming may needed to overcome blind spots.

GPS system and computerised pipeline maps

No equipment need be installed on pipeline

Requires equipment on each piece of construction equipment. Requires equipment operators to maintain the equipment. Requires full collaboration between equipment operators and pipeline operators. Limited to pipeline related operations.

130 Of the pipeline itself – both by continuous and pointwise systems 131 Measures the rock/soil displacement around the pipeline 132 A device inserted into the pipeline and carried along by the flow of the material being transported for various reasons, particularly

cleaning or inspection



Technology Advantages Disadvantages Flying-the-line No equipment on the ground to

maintain. Once the observers get used to the terrain the false alarm rate decreases.

Visual inspection usually used with associated limitations. Where specialised remote sensing payloads used cost is a dominant factor. Flight limited to weather conditions. Cannot detect small leaks in pipelines. Requires good visibility, though may improve if payloads are fitted to the leased aircraft with the incurred costs involved – both time and money. Any remote sensing added increases the cost and time to install the equipment. Limited flying platforms available for remote sensing installations.

Satellite monitoring visible wavelengths

No instrumentation and equipment to install on ground. Uses commercial satellites. Possible replacement for weekly flying-the-line possible.

Requires sunlight. Affected by clouds. Development to identify movement near narrow pipelines still required. Need for image processing to extract data. Infrequent pass over required location. Repositioning to emergency position not possible. Data is relatively expensive. Technologies used are relatively old. Data is not necessarily provided in real-time

Satellite monitoring several wavelengths

Can detect encroachment through cloud. Can detect encroachment by night.

Requires more than one satellite. Development to identify movement near narrow pipelines still required. Need for image processing to extract data. Frequency of pass over required location infrequent. Repositioning to emergency position not possible. Data is relatively expensive. Technologies used are relatively old. Data is not necessarily provided in real-time



Technology Advantages Disadvantages


Civil UAVs Flexible Can carry required multifunctional payloads suitable for the particular situation. Thermography LIDAR ILIDAR SAR ISAR Hyper-spectral sensors Microwave radiometry Optical sensors

Combination of different remote sensing techniques offers superiority over single techniques. Can monitor pipeline leaks using combination of sensors – thermal, hyper-spectral etc. Station-keep where necessary and at required altitude. Can be brought to required position whenever necessary. High repeatability accuracies. Ideal for D3 applications, where flying the line becomes dull and possibly dirty and dangerous. Image processing is part of the payload package with no extra processing required to obtain required information. Multiple simultaneous applications can be carried out. Cost effective when using multiple applications. Users can minimise their costs through sharing. Example:

Town councils may use Civil UAVs for urban construction monitoring at the same time as the pipeline operators monitor their pipelines – with unique information sent to the two different users simultaneously).

Real time data constantly available. Latest remote sensing technologies used. In emergencies can be rerouted to required position.

Requires market education – since it is a new technological solution. Possible psychological barriers.


A very conservative assumption made in the business model is that civil UAVs will be produced in

batches of 40 or 120. This assumption has been made in order to provide a sensitivity metric to the

quantity of civil UAVs manufactured, when examining costs per flight hour. In addition, the

scenarios133 used for civil UAV fleets are based on the structure described below.

The information used and presented in Figure 5-2, for manned aircraft are derived from published

data for aircraft leased with crew and equipment, in the U.S., since comparatively less data was

available for similar operations in Europe. An average cost for the U.S. and for Europe was

calculated separately and the ratio between the averages was used as a factor to compare prices in

Europe. The European to U.S. leasing ratio was found to be 1.5. So that the rates in Europe

compared to those in the U.S. are Euro=1.5*USD, for all calculations.

The cost estimations are made for the three main groups of UAVs: HALE, MALE and rotary UAVs:

4 HALE configurations, 2 MALE configurations and 2 rotary wing configurations.

FIGURE 5-2 CIVIL UAV COST COMPARISON WITH MANNED AIRCRAFT

133 Based on work carried out using cost models developed under the CAPECON project



For each group, assumptions are made regarding:

1. The system structure 2. The quantity of UAVs produced 3. The number of system flight hours per year

1. The assumptions, for the system set up, are functions of the following:

The number of UAVs per system

The number of simultaneously flying UAVs

The number of UAVs being prepared for flight (turn-around)

The number of UAVs grounded or in stand-by

2. The assumptions, for the quantity of UAVs produced, are functions of the following:

The number of potential customers

The number of systems per customer

3. The assumptions, for the number of system flight hours per year, are functions of the following:

The number of simultaneously flying UAVs (defined previously)

The number of flight hours per mission per UAV

The number of yearly months of operation

Some assumptions are made as a range of values. The quantity of UAVs produced is defined by a

minimum and a maximum value. The number of system flight hours per year range is defined by a

minimum, a typical and a maximum value. It results in six cases for each of the eight configurations,

a total of 48 cases. The summary of the configurations and operational use is summarised in Figure

5-2 above. A detailed description of the assumptions is given in the next paragraphs.

Within these groups, a relative cost comparison, based on the same assumptions, is estimated.

This is in order to give two main perspectives: cost as a function of payload and cost as a function

of flight hour, for every configuration.

Note: It must be noted that the civil UAVs used in the business cases do not necessarily have to perform a unique role. The civil UAV may carry out multiple roles at the same time, which will lower the overall costs involved. However, for the business cases the roles will be unique to that specified in the business case considered.



5.2 BUSINESS CASE 1 - EMERGENCIES - FOREST FIRE

Forest fires have increased tremendously in Europe and the rest of the world. They have caused

many casualties among forest fire fighters and civilians and serious damage to the natural

environment. The object is to minimise the area burnt with the minimum resources.

Preliminary figures134 for 2005 already show 19 people killed in some 70,000 forest fires that have

burned an estimated 140,000 hectares. This is significant damage and only covers the period

ending in July 2005.

Russian forestry scientists said they were bracing themselves for this year's fire season, which

starts in late June. It was reported135 that in the year 2004, 22 million hectares - about half the size

of France - were lost to fire.

The costs of extinguishing the fires and that of the damage involved may be broken down into direct

costs and indirect costs. The direct costs involve resources used to extinguish the fire, whereas the

indirect costs include incidental damage such as wildlife losses, natural heritage losses, and

ecosystem damage.

The direct costs include:

Forest monitoring

Fire fighting team

Fire management team

Fire extinguishing systems

Fire monitoring systems

Area of forest burnt

Post fire damage clearance

Re-planting of forest saplings

The indirect costs include:

Remedial clean up of all the forest area and disposal of debris

Severe damage to forest

Tree loss

Long term ecosystem unbalance

Preparing the ground for replanting

Replanting suitable trees

Currently fire monitoring is achieved via two extremes: satellite and cameras mounted on ground

pylons. These not only give two very different costs, but also provide different reaction times and

area coverage. The satellite is very expensive and the picture refresh rate determines the nominal

spread of the fire prior to fire fighting team reactions. The camera mounted pylons monitor smoke

prior to sending an alert. Here the smoke intensity and the sensitivity of the monitoring cameras, on

134 See ref. [ 90] 135 http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/media/2005/news_20050601_ru.htm



the pylons, determine the nominal spread of the fire prior to fire fighting team reactions. Nighttime

may be a problem.

In addition there are problems associated with approaching the fire source(s), and precious time

may be lost if the fire fighting team takes an erroneous path in the forest. The time lost in

reorienting the team and bringing the resource to bear will cost an increase in burnt forest coupled

with an increase in burning area to deal with. In addition, the fire may cover such a large area that

reconnaissance requires touring around the entire affected area and the commander of fire-fighting

operations is too close to the fire. The preverbal saying, “He cannot see the forest for the trees”, will

hold true!

The effect of time on fire spread is illustrated in Figure 5-3. Here one can readily appreciate the

importance of information as a function of time136.

The assumptions made are:

The forest is infinite - because of the eventual connection between housing estates and forests.

There are no changes in meteorological conditions - to simplify the comparisons.

The forest is homogenous – in order to be able to estimate timber lost.

COTS systems will be used wherever possible.

Pylon height is above highest tree level.

Civil UAVs are available and their costs are based on the work in Refs. [ 91, 92, 93]

136 See Ref. [ 83]



FIGURE 5-3 AREA OF FOREST LOST DUE TO FIRE AS A FUNCTION OF TIME137 & ACTUAL AREAS

Stopping a fire that has been given a chance to grow and generate huge amounts of heat is almost

impossible. It is almost impossible to stop a fire that is spreading in a

forest, fanned by moderate to high winds, with flames shooting 10 to 70

meters and with other fires starting ahead, due to the wind. The

method is prevention and very early mitigation, through forest

monitoring and rapid fire detection. This will help lessen fires from

spreading and becoming catastrophic. Response time is a critical factor in fire mitigation. Once the

monitoring system detects the fire, the response team must have the best information available to

able to use the fire fighting resources in the most efficient manner.

Problem Statement

In order to put forest fires into perspective and to understand the magnitude of the problem once

they start, one has only to examine Figure 5-4, where the Portuguese emergency services were

reportedly stretched to capacity138, with 3,100 personnel on the ground tackling the flames. At the

time of the report, the fires had already killed 15 people, including 10 fire fighters, destroyed more

than 100 homes and nearly 500 farm buildings, and forced the temporary evacuation of dozens of

villages - see Ref. [ 94]. It was also reported according to authorities that huge smoke clouds

prevented planes and helicopters from dropping water over the fires, and that 700 land vehicles

were deployed. The government even urged business to release volunteer fire fighters to increase

137 See Ref. [ 83] 138 Timesonline 5th of August 2005



the efforts to extinguish the flames.

Note: This forest fire represented less than 3 percent of Portugal’s forests. The forest fire in Portugal was 180 000 hectares, see Figure 5-4 for scale of fire marked in red –source see Ref. [ 94].

FIGURE 5-4 FOREST FIRE IN PORTUGAL SUMMER 2005 - 180 000 HECTARES - SEE REF. [ 95]

Pylon-mounted cameras

The system comprises cameras mounted on top of pylons 50-70 meters high that relay the camera

pictures back to a central control room. These pictures are manually monitored continuously for

smoke plumes rising above the treetops.

Performance parameters

The coverage attained is presented assuming the following:

The frequencies required to safely send data to the monitoring station

are available.

The pylon system can be linearly increased without problem.

Detection range = 7000 meters

Sweep rate = 2 degree per second

Field Of View (FOV) = 25 degrees

The range for a pylon-mounted camera is assumed to be 7 kilometres, where it can still detect



smoke139. The maximum instantaneous area covered by the pylon-mounted camera is shown in

black140 in Figure 5-6. The circle141 covered by the individual camera encloses a square with a

diagonal of 7km. It is the number of squares that are needed to cover the forest area, which will

correspond to the number of pylon-mounted cameras (PMC). Theoretically, this is correct, but in

practice, there will be a need for more cameras due to terrain constraints, see Figure 5-5 for

example, slopes, where cameras will not monitor the full area.

FIGURE 5-5 COVERAGE COMPARISON BETWEEN CIVIL UAV142 AND PYLON-MOUNTED CAMERAS

FIGURE 5-6 NORTHERN HUNGARIAN BORDER MAP143 139 Actual sensitivity is between 5-7 km on a clear day. Here the best figures have been used for the comparison. 140 The white area is the coverage after a whole sweep has been carried out. 141 Maximum area is shown approximately as the area enclosed by the bright white spot. The square that is enclosed by this circle is the effective area (see Figure 5-5) 142 Uses the tilt angles for increased coverage



Civil UAV system

The civil UAV has the ability to carry multiple payloads simultaneously offering inherently better

performance in forest monitoring. The payloads include: daylight television, thermal imaging and

other remote sensors such as LIDAR and SAR systems. These sensing systems when correlated

give superior coverage of the forest and with fewer false alarms compared to the manually

monitored pylon-mounted camera system, described above.

It is however, important to perform an in depth study as to which civil UAV or combinations of civil UAVs will fulfil the economic role. The civil UAV offers many benefits through the altitude, and coverage, in addition to its multi-function application capabilities.

Furthermore, once a fire does break out, the equipment that is in the

forest is lost and has to be replaced together with the tree saplings.

The civil UAV is not damaged due to fires and does not have to be

replaced.

The problem with using manned aircraft to monitor forest fires is that they can fly only during the day. Flying over a forest fire is very dangerous, especially at night, and the U.S. Forest Service has lost several aircraft during such operations. Due to the flexibility the civil

UAVs offer, a thorough studyinto their use in forest firemonitoring and clusteringwith other applicationsshould be undertaken.

TABLE 5-2 PYLON MOUNTED VS. CIVIL UAV FIRE MONITORING SYSTEMS

Pylon mounted camera Civil UAV

The system is COTS. High area coverage.

Power supplied by wind, solar energy for batteries. Requires a more sophisticated logistics footprint144 than the

pylon-mounted system.

Calculations using pylons always assume that the forest is

on a flat plane - to simplify the constraints on the fire

fighting team and the camera based pylons. This is far

from true in reality.

Civil UAVs fly above the forests.

Modular system that can be expanded as needed. Modular system that can be expanded as needed.

At the critical time, no data available should the pylon

catch fire.

Equipment lost when there is a fire.

Data always available even during fire.

143 Used to provide a sense of coverage comparisons, between pylon mounted camera and COTS airborne payloads – courtesy Google

Maps. 144 It is defined as the size of the logistics support needed to sustain the service offered. The footprint includes all the necessary support

needed to maintain the force such as fuels, parts, support equipment, transportation, and people.



Pylon mounted camera Civil UAV

Manual monitoring leads to high false alarm rates. Highly flexible can provide automatic alarm when required

at low false alarm rates.

Threshold is adjusted automatically as a function of ambient

conditions.

Limited area coverage per camera.

Static and no-flexible system, once deployed – not easily

moved.

Highly flexible, can be repositioned to enhance

effectiveness whenever required.

During a fire, the required data is not available due to

smoke.

Immediate help to the fire fighting commander and the fire

fighting team. Provides safe and effective approach routes

to the fire.

Need for extra resources to produce overall picture. Data is processed and the whole picture is available to the

fire fighters.

Need for frequency allocation for pylon-mounted cameras

as the number increases - both for Data link and control

links.

Frequencies are allotted similarly to aircraft.

Weather dependant when fog, mist or dust is present. Full coverage 24/7/365

Effectiveness can be affected by wildlife. Can carry out other tasks at the same time.

The civil UAV does not have to be dedicated to forest fire monitoring. This civil UAV may be

collecting data for weather statistics or taking stock of tree condition, when the fire breaks out.

Having this remote sensor in-situ will provide the forestry authorities immediate real-time data,

allowing optimum use of resources to extinguish the fire.

In addition, forest fires release a mixture of gases that are detrimental to the environment. Apart

from carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide, nitric oxides methane, and non-methane hydrocarbons

are released.



5.3 BUSINESS CASE 2 - COMMUNICATION RELAYS

The mobile communications market is predicted to grow145 with a shift to high altitude platforms

providing the relay stations146.

Today’s base station sites in the Seattle, Washington area, are rented at approximately $1500 per

month $36million per year – a recurring expense. There were initially 1000 sites in 1998 while

that number grew to approximately 2000 sites by the year 2003 at a non-recurring cost of $1B to

$2B.

≈

The costs stated are those, which civil UAV communications relays must compete with in order to

penetrate this market, with 24 hours a day, 7 days a week and 365 days a year service147 reliability.

The number of HAPs required to cover an area the size of the United Kingdom is illustrated in

Figure 5-7, with a reduced number of terrestrial base stations and related antennas.

A detailed investigation to establish the cost savings that the HAPs will offer should be undertaken,

in order to establish the optimum communications system configuration.

145 See Ref. [ 57] 146 Today these stations are referred to as base stations, since they are terrestrial. 147 Sometimes referred to as 24/7/365



FIGURE 5-7 COVERAGE OF THE UK WITH A NETWORK OF HAPS148

5.4 BUSINESS CASE 3 – PIPELINE MONITORING

The global demand for pipeline monitoring will increase as more pipelines are laid. In Western

countries, it is the most efficient method of transporting liquids and gases. The market potential for

pipeline monitoring is thought to be sustainable with a continuously increasing demand for

monitoring solutions149, due to farming and land development.

As urban areas expand, pipelines that were once in relatively remote places are becoming

vulnerable to building construction and the reasons for pipeline monitoring are that the pipeline

operators are interested in keeping their pipelines in good repair to guarantee delivery of the

pipeline’s goods, and avoid potential damage with the related pollution and other hazards.

In order to penetrate the pipeline monitoring markets a cost of less than 4 €/km should be

attained150.

148 See Ref. [ 98] 149 See Ref. [ 73] 150 Dr. Dieter Hausamann, DLR, Germany



Results of an in depth study on pipeline monitoring from an Earth Observation perspective

concluded the following:

The technological drivers are151:

Risk of danger to men and environment due to carried goods

General conditions concerning climate and landscape

Extent of gas production activities

Age of the pipelines

Frequency of observation

Short update cycles and high positional accuracy

Customers wish to purchase the complete observation service – not raw-data material

Customer interface compatibility for delivered information

Geographic extent of demanded data (observation corridor)

Complete acquisition of all possible dangers for the pipeline

False alarms and irrelevant information should be minimized

The economic drivers are:

Economic risk (cost of repair, fulfilling of delivery contracts)

Frequency of construction (without previously requesting information)

Current costs of pipeline monitoring

Wages and general R&D-level

Availability, market price and implementation costs of new pipeline monitoring technologies

Economic prosperity and growth

Overall size of the pipeline network

Density and growth of population

Flexibility in quantity and coverage of the delivered data

Demand-oriented Pricing (price per km²)

Continuous data provision

Long term security (risk of complete loss)

Existence of service pooling gas consumption

Pipeline monitoring focuses on three main issues:

1. Third party interference – biggest single cause of pipeline incidents worldwide 2. Leakage detection – due to pipeline age or damage 3. Soil movement – and other natural phenomena causing stress on pipe walls

Estimated costs, involved in foot patrols only, are estimated to be € 20-70 million/year in Europe.

Note: The outcome of the PRESENSE152 project showed a necessity for:

1. Better satellite resolution both for SAR and optical remote sensing

2. Increased number of satellites in order to provide the required coverage.

151 Source – Dr. Dieter Hausamann, DLR, Germany 152 See Ref. [ 75]



3. Satellite borne LIDAR

4. Lower cost imagery available on call

5. Reduction in false alarm rates

FIGURE 5-8 RELATIVE COST FOR PIPELINE MONITORING - REMOTE SENSING153

153 See Ref. [ 60]



5.5 SOUND TECHNOLOGICAL BASE

Current alternatives are:

Metric Current methods Intended future method using Satellite Earth Observation

Proposed method using civil UAVs

Soil movement Foot patrol is tedious and time

consuming. In addition,

relatively expensive in

countries with high salaries.

Seismic activities not

observable.

Needs LIDAR type remote

sensing systems for accurate

observations

Accurate measurements using

the latest technologies in multi-

spectral and LIDAR remote

sensing systems.

Selective

monitoring or

“flying-the-line”

Corridor of ~ 200m either side

of the pipeline is monitored for

soil contamination due to

pipeline leaks.

No raw data available, only a finished report provided by the contractor. New contractors tend to increase the false alarm rate due to inexperience.

Manned helicopters using

human eye visual inspections.

Subterranean leakages not

observed.

Flown 1-2 / month

Full area monitoring –necessitates extraction of required data from the satellite remote sensors. In addition, there may be limitations related to satellite orbit pass in both time and coverage.

Flies the required flight path

providing real-time imagery using

multi-type remote sensors.

Full scope of monitoring

achievable:

Subterranean leakage using multi-spectral or hyper-spectral remote sensing provides pinpoint accuracy.

May be a multi-use platform giving other remote sensing simultaneously to other customers – reducing the pipeline operator costs

Frequency of

observation

Frequency of observation is

inherently very low.

Depends on satellite orbit type Flexible - as required by the

customer.

Data

processing

Each pipeline operator extracts

data using different tooling,

methods and techniques.

Four154 business models may be offered:

• Pipeline operators creating the service in-house

• Cooperation of the pipeline operators to create the service

• Provision of the service from an external service provider

• Launch of the service by service providers

Civil UAV data processing can be

carried out either onboard or at

the data application station

154 This is based on Ref. [ 73]



6 EUROPEAN OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSEQUENCES This section summarises the benefits Europe will gain, should the European Commission adopt the

civil UAV roadmap and the consequences that Europe may incur by ignoring this opportunity.

TABLE 6-1 OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS – FOCUSED ON DIRECT EFFECTS155

Area Most Affected

Opportunities

(Europe adopts the Civil UAV Roadmap)

Consequences

(Europe Does NOT adopt the Civil UAV Roadmap)

Comments

Socio-

Political

Full European autonomy - Europe is

completely independent and does

not have to “tow-the-line”.

Independent decision-making

process with no outside influences.

Europe may have to follow

outside directives on civil

UAV uses.

Europe may be constrained by

the technologies it acquired to

use the foreign non-European

civil UAVs

Non-European produced

civil UAV systems and

technologies

Dependency on non-European

manufacturers and other non-

European government policies

Technological

infrastructure

Completely European produced civil

UAV system, instead of a

“component and parts” manufacturer

Buy civil UAV technologies

from non-European

manufacturers

Adaptation to suit European

needs will increase their costs

Socio-

economic

Pan-European research will form

strong Know-who, Know-what

networks - further consolidation of

Pan-European relations

Weaken European research

and knowledge in this area

Impetus to further unite and

strengthen the European

Union

Economic-

Technological

infrastructure

Increase in European high-tech

growth

Europe indirectly subsidises

non-European high-tech

Other unidentified secondary

“knock-on” indirect effects,

may cause increased damage

to Europe

Socio-

economic

Increase in innovation Brain Drain Europe’s bright scientists will

leave Europe

Socio-

economic

Development of a highly skilled

workforce

Lack of a skilled workforce

will backfire in future years

Future corrective action to

increase the skill base may

cost “too much”

155 This table does not take into account the effects of the lack of the civil UAV system operation and the benefits obtained through these

operations



Area Most Affected

Opportunities


Consequences


Comments

Economic-

Technological

infrastructure

High-tech infrastructure strengthened

in Europe

Non-European high-tech

infrastructure strengthened

Technological breakthroughs

with the economic implications

are non-European

Socio-

economic

Europe can compete with its own

product in the civil UAV market

Europe is a bystander in the

civil UAV market

Loss of potential market to

non-European producers

Economic-

Technological

infrastructure

European home-grown present,

next-generation and post next-

generation technologies

Europe lacks the relevant

technologies

Civil UAVs are inevitable, so

why not develop them in

Europe.

A large technological gap is

produced – may be difficult to

close

Socio-

economic

European systems more acceptable

in Europe

Non-European systems may

cause social negative

response

A non-European civil UAV

may cause rejection by

European citizens – there is

an inherent underlying

psychological factor in

introducing civil UAVs

Socio-

economic &

Technological

infrastructure

European spin-offs created Spin-offs are non-European Further increasing future

competition: employment,

technological infrastructure,

and skilled workforce…

Socio-

economic &

Technological

infrastructure

Further development of Pan-

European decision making

Europe stays the same with

no progress on the civil UAV

field and the associated

collaboration

Collaboration in the civil UAV

field remains fragmented

Technological

infrastructure

Infrastructure laid by the four FP5

civil UAV projects (USICO,

CAPECON, UAVNET, HELIPLAT)

used as an impetus for further

breakthroughs

Investment in the FP5

project withers away and is

lost

Information dissipates and

there is nothing to show for the

work carried out and the

investments made



Area Most Affected

Opportunities


Consequences


Comments

Technological

infrastructure

Multi-disciplinary technologies cause

dual-use technological flows

Stagnation Dual-use technologies

absorbed by other research

areas and benefit is

widespread

Socio-

economic &

Technological

infrastructure

Pan-European capabilities

harnessed and moved forward

Sporadic tries some more

successful than others, with

little Pan-European

cooperation, islands of

knowledge.

Duplication of effort,

repetition of errors, loss of

momentum, allowing

stronger overseas

competition to move in

By uniting Europe on the civil

UAV programme the

European potential will be

maximal, strengthening

Europe’s competitiveness

internally and externally

Socio-

economic &

Technological

infrastructure

Major supplier of civil UAV

equipment

Equipment has to be bought

in from non-European

sources

Conditions are dictated in non-

European capitals

Socio-

economic &

Technological

infrastructure

Europe leads the civil UAV industry

with related advantages in this high

growth market

Europe follows the leader

trying to close the

technological gap

This may augment the brain

drain Europe wants to avert

Socio-

economic &

Technological

infrastructure

European service industries related

to civil UAVs together with their

relative supply chains UAVs expand

substantially

European civil UAV supply

chains barely exist

Europe may miss out on a

new technological service

industry, with all the related

peripherals

Socio-

economic

infrastructure

European aerospace employment is

directly boosted, increasing its

attractiveness for younger

generations

Europe has to combat

possible rise in

unemployment in the

aerospace industry

The European workforce is

boosted and the aerospace

industry is an attractive

workplace



6.1 EUROPEAN OPPORTUNITIES

The civil UAV roadmap will initialise and directly promote numerous small business opportunities in

various fields, in addition to the supply chains that will naturally emerge.

A very short list of possible technological spin-offs is summarised in Table 6-2.

TABLE 6-2 EXPECTED SPIN-OFF OPPORTUNITIES

Research Area of Interest

Sub-Area of Interest Sub-Area of Interest Sub-Area of Interest

Firmware Image processing Sensors, algorithms

Software systems

Hardware

Optics Improvements in laser

measuring technologies

New laser technologies

for LIDAR and ILIDAR Software

Higher quality GIS Mapping Local Councils, Builders,

Architects

Firmware

Electronics, antennas Radar – improved

aviation radar systems Sensors, algorithms

Software

Coding theories

Electronics, antennas

Firmware

Software

Signal Processing

Secure Communications Algorithms

Electro magnetic radiation

MEMs Micro-electronics Firmware, mechanical

engineering

Electronic system

miniaturisation Wafer Engineering

New FAB manufacturing

techniques

Nanotechnologies Electronics Specialised lithography,

Chemical engineering

Electronics

Novel actuators Wing warping

technologies

Micro-actuators using nano-

technologies





Novel controllers

Miniaturisation of robust

avionics

Highly reliable redundant

miniaturised electronic systems

Novel manufacturing

systems

Electronics, mechanics,

software, algorithms

Novel mechanical

systems for cargo

loading and unloading

Computerised

mechanical systems Algorithms, actuators

Robotics

Autonomy Algorithms for different

applications

Improved software

implementation methods

Advanced programming

languages

Validation and

automatic testing

Automatic test equipment,

Sophisticated data acquisition

systems

System tools

Software, Firmware

Simulations Modelling and algorithm

development

Payload maintenance Specialised

maintenance services Sensor maintenance

Fuselage, powerplant,

actuators, etc

Civil UAV maintenance

companies Classic maintenance

services Electronics, ground control

station, application station, etc

Finance for civil UAV

systems Leasing companies

specializing in civil UAVs Resale of used civil

UAV systems

Software Systems Engineering

(SMEs) System integrators

Hardware

Civil UAV operators

Service Industries

Refurbishing services





Hardware

Miniaturisation Nano-electronics

Flight control

Software Advanced generation-after-

next embedded algorithms

Hardware

Miniaturisation Nano-electronics

Avionics

Sensor technologies

Software



7 GLOSSARY OF TERMS A/C Aircraft

AAV Autonomous Air Vehicle

ACARS Airborne Communications Addressing and Reporting System

ACAS Airborne Collision Avoidance System

ADC Air Data Computer

ADS-B Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast

ANSP or ANSPs Air Navigation Service Providers

ARESE ARM Enhanced Shortwave Experiment

ARM Atmospheric radiation measurement program

ASAS Airborne Separation Assistance System

ATC Air Traffic Control, synonym for Air Traffic Management, or system

ATM Air Traffic Management, synonym for Air Traffic Control, or system

ATS Air Traffic System, synonym for Air Traffic Control or management. Sometimes

referred to as Air Traffic Service

Availability Is a measure of how often a system or component is in the operable and

committable state when the mission is called for at an unknown (random) time. It is

measured in terms of the percentage of time a system can be expected to be in

place and working when required. In this document it describes how a given

aircraft type is able to perform its task compared to the number of times it is

required to do so. For this study, the ratio of hours flown to hours scheduled is

used. It is expressed as a percentage.

sScheduledFlightHoursFlownFlightHourtyAvailabili =

BLOS Beyond Line of Sight

Canopy The upper leaves of the trees in a forest

CARE Co-operative Actions of R&D in EUROCONTROL

CDTI Cockpit Display of Traffic Information



Communication The data link between the aircraft and the ground

CONOPS Concept of Operations

COTS Commercial of the shelf

DARPA Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency

DEM Digital Elevation Model

DHS Department of Homeland Security

DoD U.S. Department of Defence

EASA European Air Safety Agency

EMR Electromagnetic radiation

EOMD Earth Observation Market Development

ESARR EuroControl Safety Regulations Requirements

FAA Federal Aviation Administration

Flight Control Includes all systems contributing to the aircraft stability and control, such as

avionics, air data system, servo-actuators, control surfaces/servos, on-board

software, navigation, and other related subsystems. Aerodynamic factors are also

included in this grouping.

FLIR Forward Looking Infra Red

FMS Flight Management System

GA General aviation

GCS Ground Control Station

GEO Geostationary Earth orbit

GIS Geographic Information System

Global Interoperability The aircraft manufacturers recognize that today's system will not meet tomorrow's

needs, that the system must change, and that they need to work together closely

to ensure that future systems in Europe, Asia and the United States all fit together

seamlessly for maximum operational efficiency and a safe, secure, efficient,

environmentally friendly, global air traffic system that addresses the needs of all

users and service providers.

GMES Global Monitoring of Environment and Security



GMOSS Global Monitoring of Safety and Security – a European sponsored project that

includes pipeline monitoring

GNSS Global Navigation Satellite System

GPS Global Positioning System

HALE High Altitude Long Endurance

HAP High Altitude Platform

HFC Hydro-Fluoro-Carbon

HMI Human Machine Interface

Human Factors / Ground Control

Accounts for all failures resulting from human error and maintenance problems

with any non-vehicle hardware or software on the ground.

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organisation

IFR Instrument Flight Rules

INSAR Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar

LAAS Local Area Augmentation System – used as a navigation aid

LAI Lean Aerospace Initiative

LEO Low Earth orbit

Logistics footprint Defined as the size of the logistics support needed. The footprint includes all the

necessary support needed to maintain the force such as fuels, parts, support

equipment, transportation, and people.

LTA Lighter Than Air

Maintainability Is the ability of a system to be retained in or restored to a specified condition when

maintenance is performed by personnel having specified skill levels, using

prescribed procedures and resources, and doing so at prescribed levels of

maintenance and repair. It is measured in terms of how long it takes to repair or

service the system, or Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) in hours.

MALE Medium Altitude Long endurance

MEMS Micro Electro Mechanical System



Miscellaneous Any application failures not attributable to those previously noted, including

airspace issues, operating problems, and other non-technical factors. Because

operating environments are not uniform as a variable affecting the data, weather is

excluded as a causal factor in this portion of the study.

MMI Man Machine Interface, used interchangeably with HMI

MTBF Mean Time Between Failure - describes how long a repairable system or

component will perform before failure. This is also known as Mean Time Between

Critical Failure (MTBCF). For non-repairable systems or components, this value is

termed Mean Time To Failure (MTTF). Here it is essentially the ratio of hours flown

to the number of maintenance-related cancellations and aborts encountered. It is

expressed in hours.

eFailureRatMTBF 1

=

NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology

PEO Polar Earth Orbit

PIPEMON Geo-information services for pipeline operators – a European funded project

PMC Pylon-Mounted Cameras

Power/Propulsion (P&P)

Encompasses the engine, fuel supply, transmission, propeller, electrical system,

generators, and other related subsystems on board the aircraft

PRESENSE Pipeline REmote SENsing for Safety and the Environment – a European funded

project

PS The PS technique overcomes the main limits of conventional interferometric

approaches to surface deformation detection, thus allowing to identification of

individual radar benchmarks (called Permanent Scatterers) where very precise

displacement measurements can be carried out.

PSD Permanent Scatterers Data

RVSM Reduced Vertical Separation Minima

SAA Sense And Avoid system

SAR Search and Rescue / Synthetic Aperture Radar

SLAM Service for Landslide Monitoring, funded by the European Space Agency (ESA)

SWOT Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats



Task Reliability Is defined as 100 minus the percentage of times a task is cancelled before take-off

or aborted in-flight due to maintenance issues. It is expressed as a percentage.

TCAS Traffic Collision Avoidance System

TIS-B Traffic Information Service Broadcast

TPI Third Party Interference

UAV or UAVs Unmanned air vehicle(s)

VFR Visual Flight Rules

WAAS Wide Area Augmentation System – used as a navigation aid



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Seaside, CA, John C. Arvesen, Kauai Airborne Sciences,

Kauai, HI, Robert G. Higgins, Joseph G. Leung and

Stephen E. Dunagan, NASA Ames Research Center,

Moffett Field, CA Also: Herwitz, S.R., Johnson,

L.F., Arvesen, J.C., Leung, J.G., Dunagan, S.E., 2002.

“Precision Agriculture as a Commercial Application for

Solar-powered UAVs, 1st AIAA UAV Conference”, 15-17

May, Portsmouth, VA

39. South Korea UAV Roadmap - http://www.smart-uav.re.kr/sudc_eng/index.htm



40. UAV TASK-FORCE - UAV TASK-FORCE Final Report, The Joint

JAA/Eurocontrol Initiative on UAVs, A Concept for

European Regulations For Civil Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

(UAVs), 11 May 2004

41. Enclosures - To UAV Task Force Final Report

42. Radiation Protection Dosimetry - Airborne Gamma Ray Measurements in the Chernobyl

Plume, R.L. Grasty, J. Hovgaard and J. Multala,

http://rpd.oupjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/73/1-4/225,

Radiation Protection Dosimetry 73:225-230 (1997)

43. Modelling Links - Modelling Links in Inclined LEO Satellite Networks,

PETER GVOZDJAK, Motorola Canada Ltd., JOSEPH G.

PETERS, Simon Fraser University, Canada,

Www.cs.sfu.ca/~peters/pub/satellite2.pdf

44. SP-1199 - Published June 1996. Developed by ESA-ESRIN ID/D,

http://www.esa.int/esapub/sp/sp1199/spappA.htm

45. UAV Cargo System - Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Cargo System - Campo, Libni

Ortiz, Indah Leo, Chnur Muhammad, Angela Garcia. http://spacecom.grc.nasa.gov/icnsconf/docs/2004/02_session_a1

46. Utilisation of UAVs - Utilisation of Unmanned Aerospace Vehicles for Global

Climate Change Research – Scripps Institute of

Oceanography, San Diego, California – August 3 & 4,

2004, http://www.fsl.noaa.gov/uav_workshop

47. Earth Observation Magazine - Application of Aerial Video for Traffic Flow Monitoring and

Management - Vol. 12, No. 4 June 2003, Pitu Mirchandani,

Mark Hickman, Alejandro Angel, and Dinesh Chandnani

http://www.eomonline.com/Common/Archives/2003jun/03j

un_aerialvideo.html



48. UAVNET - Monitoring Of Gas Transmission Pipelines – A Customer

Driven Civil UAV Application, Dieter Hausamann (DLR, D-

82234 Webling, Germany), Werner Zirnig (Ruhrgas AG,

Halterner Strabe 125, D-46284 Dorsten, Germany), and

Gunter Schreier, Definiens Imaging GmbH,

Trappentreustrasse 1-3, D-80339 Munich, also appeared

in the UAVNET presentations on pipeline monitoring.

49. AIAA - International communications Satellite Conference, 9 –

12 May 2004, Monterrey, California, To Reduce or to

Extend a Complex Engineering System Design Lifetime?

What is at Stake, for Whom, and How to Resolve the

Dilemma, J. H. Saleh, J. P. Torres-Padilla, D. E. Hastings,

D. J. Newman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,

Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139

50. TAMDAR - TAMDAR Sensor Development, Daniels, T. S.,

“Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting

(TAMDAR) Sensor Development,” 2002-02-153, SAE

General Aviation Technology Conference and Exposition,

April 16-18, 2002, Wichita, KS.

51. Traffic Surveillance from UAVs - Results and Lessons from an Extended Field Experiment,

Benjamin Coifmana, Mark R. McCord, Rabi Mishalani,

Keith Redmill, The Ohio State University, Ohio

Transportation Engineering Conference, Columbus, OH,

October 27, 2004

52. Global Interoperability - Prerequisite for future growth in air transport, Air Traffic

Alliance - A Grouping Of Eads-Airbus-Thales (ATA),

Boeing, Maastricht, February 1, 2005,



53. Future Applications of UAVs - Inputs to JAA/Eurocontrol Task Force, JAA, Hoofddorp,

2003-05-08, Dr. Reimund Kuke, Airobotics Germany, NLR

Netherlands, DLR, Germany, IAI, Israel, Swedish Defence

College, Sweden, University of Naples, Italy, Onera,

France, EADS, France, Swedish Space Corporation,

Sweden.

54. Science and technology - Communication From The Commission, COM (2004) 353

final, Science and technology, the key to Europe's future -

Guidelines for future European, Union policy to support

research, Brussels, 16.6.2004

55. IEEE Communications Society - Broadband Communications via High-Altitude Platforms: A

Survey, Stylianos Karapantazis and Fotini-Niovi Pavlidou

Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

56. UAVNET - Civil UAVs An Approach Towards Cost Reduction, Robert

Delogne, Sonaca s.a., UAVNET meeting # 4, Rochester,

July 2002

57. Presentation - Airborne Communication Node – Market Analysis, Market

and business case study of utilisation of UAVs as airborne

communications antenna, Laurence “Nuke” Newcome -

Adroit Systems U.S.A., meeting # 4, Rochester, July 2002

58. UAVNET - The Use of Remote Sensing Technologies for Pipeline

Operations, Andy Fraser, Issquared Ltd. UK, now

Advantica.

59. Pipeline & Gas Journal - Hyperspectral Remote Sensing Promotes Early Problem

Detection In Facility & Pipeline Monitoring, Dr. Alexander

W. Taylor, Pipeline & Gas Journal/October 2000,

www.undergroundinfo.com

60. UAVNET - Where is Business - Remote Sensing Opportunities

for Civil UAVs, Wouter Brokx, NLR, 3rd UAVNET meeting,

29/30 April 2002, Warsaw



61. Presentation - Earth Observations for Disaster Reduction: Developing a

National Plan, Helen M. Wood, GEO Secretariat Director,

Chair, U.S. Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction,

Helen.Wood@NOAA .gov, October 2004

62. ARESE - NASA, ARM Enhanced Shortwave Experiment

(ARESE), September 25 - November 1, 1995,

http://www.arm.gov/iops/arese/ARESE.html

63. Underwater Volcano - Researchers Discover Underwater Volcano, Unique

hydrothermal community of hundreds of eels, uncovered, Jessica Demian or Mario Aguilera

858/534-3624, http://earthref.org/ERESE/projects/ALIA,

http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/article_detail.cfm?article_num

=681

64. Fact Sheet 091-99 - Real-Time Monitoring of Active Landslides, Mark E. Reid,

Richard G. LaHusen, William L. Ellis,

http://landslides.usgs.gov, U.S. Department of the Interior,

U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet

091-99, Reducing Landslide Hazards in the United States

65. SLAM - OPTICAL IMAGES WITHIN LANDSLIDE RISK

ANALYSIS, P. Farina, S. Moretti - Earth Sciences Dept.,

University of Firenze, V. La Pira 4, Firenze, Italy, E-mail:

[email protected], D. Colombo, A. Fumagalli - Tele-

Rilevamento Europa, TRE s.r.l., a POLIMI spin-off

company, V. Vittoria Colonna 7, Milano, Italy, E-mail:

[email protected], E. Gontier - Spacebel,

Parc Scientifique du Sart Tilman, Angleur (Liטge),

Belgium, E-mail: [email protected],

http://www.slamservice.info/img

66. Earth Observation System - Strategic Plan For The U.S. Integrated Earth Observation

System, Interagency Working Group on Earth

Observations NSTC Committee on Environment and

Natural Resources



67. Cellular Antennas Go Airborne - Testing is currently being performed by California firm

Aero-Vironment Inc., the UAV with a 50-foot wing span

and powered by liquid hydrogen can fly 12 miles high

(65,000 feet, above commercial air traffic and weather) for

one week straight - Thursday July 7, 2005

http://www.mobilemag.com/content/100/102/C4233/

68. Small UAV Application - Proceedings, Int’l Symposium on Remote Sensing of

Environment, 2003, Collection of Ultra High Spatial and

Spectral Resolution Image Data over California Vineyards

with a Small UAV, L.F. Johnsona, S. Herwitza, S

Dunagana, B. Lobitza, D. Sullivana, R. Slyea

69. In The Pipeline – SATELLITES WILL CHECK GAS TRANSMISSION

INFRASTRUCTURE FROM SPACE, Russ Pride, project

manager, Advantica, Munich, 4th January 2002, European

Commission PRESENSE - Definiens Imaging GmbH,

leading supplier of object oriented Image Analysis

Technologies

70. UAVNET - CAPECON Overview Description - Meeting #4, Rochester,

England 23-24 July 2002, http://www.uavnet.com

71. UAVNET - European Security Framework - Frost & Sullivan, UAVNET

meeting, Amsterdam, 26 -27 January 2004

72. UAVNET - Meeting 6 –7 May 2004, London, UK, UAVs-Meeting the

Civil/Commercial Challenge, Sara Waddington Editorial

Director, Council, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Systems

Association (UAVS), UK www.uavworld.com

73. Pipeline Monitoring - Threat Management Systems - Short-term actions on EO

market drivers Identification of market drivers and their

impact on demand and supply of EO based geo-

information in respect of pipeline monitoring, C-CORE,

DEFINIENS, DLR, MICUS, RUHRGAS,

TERREMAPSERVER, AO/1-4240/02/I-LG



74. Design Project - Design an automated airway system for a UAV cargo

concept. Federal Aviation Administration Office of Aviation

Research, 800 Independence Ave. Washington DC.

Sponsor: FAA Office of Aviation Research, Dr. Herm

Rediess, Team Advisor, supported by Mr. Francisco

Estrada, FAA NEXTOR Program Manager

([email protected]); Dr. Lance Sherry, Aurora

Flight Sciences Corp.

75. ISRSE05 - Test Cases and Prospects of Pipeline Management Using

Space Borne Earth Observation G. Schreiera, D.

Hausamann, I. Lingenfelder, U. Benz, W. Zirnig, ISRSE05

Pipeline Final document.

76. DOT Analysis - Analysis of DOT Office of Pipeline Safety (OPS) Natural

Gas Pipeline Operators Incident, Summary Statistics for

01/01/86 –06/21/1999. The statistics are available from

OPS’s website, http://ops.dot.gov/

77. NTSB/PAR-95/01 - National Transportation Safety Board Pipeline Accident

Report for Texas Eastern Transmission, Corporation

Natural Gas Pipeline Explosion and Fire, Edison, New

Jersey, March 23, 1994. PB95-916501.

78. UAVNET - Kiruna Conference, Programme for the First European

Conference on the Applied Scientific Use of UAV Systems,

Real time Radiological Disaster Control, Dr. Hovav Zafrir,

Dr. Gideon Steinitz, Meeting in June 2002, Kiruna,

Sweden.

79. UAVNET - Kiruna Conference, Prototype Radiation Surveillance

Equipment For A Mid-Sized Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, P.

Smolander, K. Kurvinen, R. Pöllänen, STUK - Radiation

and Nuclear Safety Authority, P.O. Box 14, FIN-00881

HELSINKI, Finland



80. CONCAWE - Oil Pipelines Management Group’s Special Task Force,

Performance of European Cross-Country Oil Pipelines

Statistical Summary of Reported Spillages – 2001, P.M.

Davis, K.P. Giessler, B. Muller, A. Olcese,

81. CONCAWE - Oil Pipelines Management Group’s Special Task Force,

Performance of European Cross-Country Oil Pipelines

Statistical Summary of Reported Spillages – 2003, P.M.

Davis, K.P. Giessler, A. Olcese, F. Uhlig, Brussels, May

2005

82. UAVNET - Presentation of the use of remote sensing technologies for

pipeline operations, Description of potential market for

monitoring of pipelines around the world which could be

serviced by UAVs, Andy Fraser, Integrated Statistical

Solutions (ISS) U.K., now part of Advantica Ltd. Rochester

Conference, England 23-24 July 2002

83. UAVNET - Robot Reconnaissance Aircraft - An Opportunity To Use

Robot Technology For Fighting Forest Fires Ltc. Ágoston

Restás, Szendrö Fire Department, Hungary, 9th UAVNET

Meeting, Amsterdam 26 - 27. January

84. UAVNET - Mapping Requirements for Flood Control, Koen Maeghe,

AWZ, 9th UAVNET Meeting, Amsterdam 26 - 27. January

85. Aviation Week - Here's How To Motivate Students Toward Aerospace,

David M. North / Editor in Chief, Aviation Week & Space

Technology, Originally published in AW&ST October 14,

2004

86. Aviation Week - Worries Deepen Over Dearth of Technical Talent By

William B. Scott, Colorado Springs, Originally published in

AW&ST, April 23, 2001



87. Visual Imaging Techniques - Inspection and Evaluation of Protective Coatings by Visual

Imaging Techniques, Alan D. Zdunek, Gary Shubinsky,

Kwan Hwa Jan, BIRL/Northwestern University, 1801

Maple Avenue, Evanston, IL 60201

88. UAVNET - Lesson learned from UAV supported forest fire

reconnaissance in Hungary, Agoston Restas, Szendro,Fire

Department. Hungary, Zoltan Gacser, National Defence

University of Hungary, Utilization of UAVs for

reconnaissance of forest fires. UAVNET, meeting London.

89. Aviation Today - Steering Clear of a Perfect Storm, By David Jensen,

Editor's Note, December 1, 2004

90. European Commission Report - Forest Fires in Europe 2004, S.P.I.05.147, European

Communities 2005

91. Technical Report - Configuration Cost Estimation Final Technical Report,

D7/4 CAPECON Technical Report, 9.05.2005

92. Technical Report - MALE UAV Synthesis, 54/8 CAPECON Technical Report,

24.10.2004

93. Technical Report - HALE Blended Wing Configuration, D4/8 CAPECON

Technical Report, 26.05.2004

94. Agence France-Presse - Portugal Remains On Alert As Forest Fires Under Control,

http://www.forests.org/articles, Agence France-Presse,

August 27, 2005

95. MODIS - MODIS Rapid Response Team, Image courtesy Jeff

Schmaltz, NASA GSFC and courtesy of

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards

96. UAV Reliability Study - Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Reliability Study - Prepared

for the U.S. Office of the Secretary of Defence on Feb.

2003



97. Uninhabited Air Vehicles - Uninhabited Air Vehicles: Enabling Science for Military

Systems, Committee on Materials, Structures, and

Aeronautics for Advanced Uninhabited Air Vehicles,

National Materials Advisory Board, Aeronautics and Space

Engineering Board, Commission on Engineering and

Technical Systems, National Research Council,

Publication NMAB-495, NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS,

Washington, D.C.

98. White paper - High-Altitude Platforms for Wireless Communications, by

T. C. Tozer and D. Grace

99. Presentation - Micro-Aerial Vehicle Development: Design components

and Flight Testing, by Gabriel Torres and Thomas J.

Mueller, University of Notre Dame, Notre dame, IN., U.S.,

AUVSI Conference on July 11-13 2000

100. RadarNet - Multifunctional Automotive Radar Network,

http://www.radarnet.org

101. Study - Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Reliability Study, Prepared for

the U.S. Office of the Secretary of Defence on Feb. 2003

102. UAV Roadmap 2002 - Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Roadmap 2002-2027,

developed by the Office of the Secretary of Defence

(Acquisition, Technology, & Logistics), Air Warfare.

103. CAPECON Report - Onboard Obstacle Detection System for Rotary Wing UAV,

Pierre-Marie BASSET, ONERA, Task 6.1, D6-1-b Rotary

Technologies B Report, Rotary Wing UAV Technologies,

September 2003

104. Presentation - Lean Aerospace Initiative, Overview, May 2004, 2004

Massachusetts Institute of Technology - web.mit.edu/lean



Index

George Mason University, 14 ACARE, 32, 33 global interoperability, 27 aerodynamics, 100 GMOSS, 74, 194 air system, 14 ground station, 14, 18 ATC, 15, 18, 22, 33, 35, 42, 85, 87, 96, 97, 98,

192 HALE, 15, 16, 21, 34, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 45, 48, 49, 53, 61, 71, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 94, 95, 96, 100, 172, 194, 209

ATM, 15, 22, 42, 85, 96, 97, 192, 199 autonomous, 2, 13, 85

HAPs, 43, 44, 46, 48, 182 autonomous flight, 24, 85 Heliplat, 101 border patrol, 26 hydrothermal, 63 brain drain, 32

Brain Drain, 4 inspection, 169 Interface equipment, 14 bridge inspection, 71

CAPECON, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 94, 101, 187, 206, 209, 210

ISAR, 171 Landslide, 63 landslips, 77 cargo, 14, 25, 81, 84, 85, 190, 207 law enforcement, 18, 26, 67 civil UAV leakages, 76, 77, 185 UAVs, 3, 4, 13, 14, 18, 20, 21, 24, 26, 27, 28,

29, 31, 32, 33, 34, 36, 37, 38, 40, 42, 44, 47, 48, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 63, 65, 67, 71, 74, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 85, 87, 88, 89, 94, 95, 97, 167, 174, 180, 181, 182, 186, 187, 188, 189, 190

LIDAR, 61, 65, 66, 74, 171, 180, 184, 185, 189 MALE, 15, 16, 21, 61, 71, 88, 89, 92, 93, 95, 98,

172, 194, 209 marine ecosystem collapse, 66 MEMs, 28, 189

Class A Airspace, 22 micro-rotary, 19 Class B Airspace, 22, 23 morphing, 28, 167 Class C Airspace, 22 NASA, 24, 27, 34, 36, 53, 54, 199, 201, 205, 209 Class D Airspace, 22 payload, 13, 14, 15, 37 Class E Airspace, 22 pipeline, 20, 26, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 167, 168, 169,

171, 182, 183, 184, 185, 194, 195, 203, 206, 208

Class G airspace, 23 Co-axial Rotor, 16

PIPEMOD, 74 collision avoidance, 20, 21, 24, 32, 42, 96, 98, 101 platform, 13, 14, 15, 26, 38, 39, 46, 47, 61, 70, 76,

80, 81, 83, 90, 95, 100, 185, 194 Communication stations, 14 communications, 13, 14, 15, 19, 27, 40, 44

pollution detection, 26, 58 control station, 14, 36, 190 powerline, 79 Cost Comparison, 172 Powerline, 73, 79 critical infrastructures, 68, 72 PRESENSE, 74, 184, 195, 206 critical technologies, 21 relay communication equipment, 14 DARPA, 19, 20, 193 reliability, 69 data link, 86

down link, 15 remote sensing, 13, 14, 20, 34, 63, 66, 68, 74, 75, 79, 80, 83, 166, 170, 171, 184, 185 emergency, 13, 18, 26, 70, 72, 79, 82, 97, 167,

170, 177 SAR, 42, 57, 74, 171, 180, 184, 195 satellite, 13, 33, 38, 40, 42, 43, 44, 47, 48, 49, 57,

62, 64, 66, 71, 74, 75, 76, 82, 170, 175, 184, 185

FAA, 14, 24, 84, 85, 199, 207 false alarms, 74, 169, 180 fertiliser, 64

Satellite, 38, 42, 46, 74, 76, 82, 170, 184, 185, 194, 202, 203

fire detection, 177 fire fighters, 20

Seiko Epson Corp, 19, 20 fire monitoring, 20 Single Rotor, 94 fishing, 55, 64, 66, 83 spin-offs, 28, 29, 187, 189 flooding, 81, 82 structural inspections, 71 Forest fires, 175 surveillance, 68, 70, 72, 78, 167, 169 Formula-One racing, 24 Synchronisation, 18 Frost & Sullivan, 5

GDP, 30, 31



technologies, 2, 4, 13, 17, 19, 21, 24, 26, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 37, 41, 42, 43, 44, 48, 53, 64, 65, 68, 70, 78, 81, 83, 86, 89, 91, 94, 96, 101, 102, 166, 167, 171, 183, 185, 186, 187, 188, 189, 191, 208

telecommunication relays, 26 thermal imagery, 36 Thermography, 171 topological mapping, 26 traffic monitoring, 20, 26 UAV, 2, 4, 5, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 24, 25,

26, 28, 32, 34, 35, 36, 37, 39, 42, 44, 45, 48, 65, 66, 81, 83, 84, 85, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 101, 102, 166, 167, 179, 180, 186, 190, 197, 199, 200, 201, 202, 203, 206, 207, 209, 210

UAV, 36, 84, 85

UAVNET, 1, 67, 87, 96, 99, 100, 102, 187, 203, 204, 206, 207, 208, 209

UAVs, 2, 4, 5, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 42, 43, 48, 49, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 87, 88, 89, 93, 94, 95, 96, 98, 99, 100, 166, 167, 171, 173, 174, 176, 180, 185, 186, 187, 188, 190, 197, 200, 201, 202, 203, 204, 206, 208, 209

underground fires, 63, 64 up link, 15 USICO, 26, 87, 95, 96, 97, 98, 101, 187 wine vineyard, 20 wrecks, 70


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