European equities long x short dynamic danske capital
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Transcript of European equities long x short dynamic danske capital
Return on Knowledge
Danske Capital – European Equities Long X Short Dynamic -
Frankfurt , 2013
2
Agenda
• Introduction to Danske Capital and Equity Investment Team Page 3 European Equities Long x Short Dynamic : • Team, philosophy, process, performance and risk management Page 12
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Total assets: € 445 bnShareholders’ equity: € 19.0 bnSolvency ratio: 21.8 %RoE (YTD): 6.2 %Rating: S&P A-/Moody’s Baa1 (long term) No. of employees: 19.981As of June 2013
AuM total € 95.2 bnInstitutional: € 49.2 bnRetail: € 46 bn
No. of inst. & pooled acc. Clients: 2,469No. of employees (AM): 368As of July 2013
Danske Bank Group
Danske Capital
competencies
• European Equities • European Hedge Funds • European Credits • European Fixed Income • Global Equities • Global Inflation Linked Bonds • Local Equities and fixed income • Solutions
Danske Capital -The asset management division of Danske Bank -
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Investment philosophy
• Focus – “we manage only products where we can deliver world class performance”
• Non -areas outsourced
• Focused and independent investment teams – Boutiques
• No committees nor binding “house view”
• Tailor-made and disciplined investment processes based on team skills and DNA
• Bottom-up understanding and high conviction key characteristics
• Structured knowledge-sharing between Boutiques
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Clients and assets
Alpha Products
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More than € 90 billion under managementMore than 2400 institutional clients, corporate clients and pooled accounts
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%Assets under management by Client Type
Individuals; 0,88% Funds; 9,84%
Mutual funds; 51,97% Life & pension insurance; 22,53%
Pension funds; 4,06% Companies; 6,2%
Other institutional clients; 2,73% Public institutions & housing societies; 1,78%
Asset Class AUM m EuroEuropean Equities 7.996
Global Equities 1.309Emerging European Equities 474Nordic Equities 4.161European Fixed Income 7.728Global Fixed Income 1.917European Hedge 1.370Nordic Fixed Income 32.893July-13
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Significant Resources In All Alpha Areas
Personnel Investment Professionals: Alpha Personnel
Investment Management Equities European Equities 10
- Solutions 45 Eastern European Equities & Local Analysts 9
- Alpha 81 Global Equities 5
Institutional Sales 53 Danish Equities 3
Global Business Support 139 Finnish Equities 8
Management, Business Management & Legal 50 Swedish Equities 4
Total # of employees in Danske Capital 368 Norwegian Equities 3
Equity Hedge 4
Trading 8
Personnel 54
Asset Class Asset Allocation 3 Fixed Income European Corporate Bonds 6
Equity & Fixed Income Solutions 5 Global Fixed Income & FX 5
External Solutions & Risk Management 12 Danish Fixed Income 6
Subtotal 20 Finnish Fixed Income 2
Country Solution Denmark 10 Swedish Fixed Income 2
Solution Finland 14 Norwegian Fixed Income 3
Solution Norway 1 Fixed Income Hedge 3
Subtotal 25 Subtotal 27
45 Total # of Investment Professionals: Alpha 81
As of august 2013
Danske Capital - Headcount
Subtotal
Total # of Investment Professionals: Solutions
Investment Professionals: Solutions
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The portfolio teams interact on the basis of a shared knowledge base
Europe Alpha
Europe Stockpicking
Europe LS Dynamic
Global Equities
High Dividend
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European and Global Equities: Structure and workflow
Sector Specialist
Sector Specialist
Competence Person
Sector Specialist
Competence Person
Sector Specialist
Sector Specialist
Sector Specialist
PORTFOLIO TEAM
PORTFOLIO TEAM
PORTFOLIO TEAM
PORTFOLIO TEAM
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Quality
Delta
The common elements in the investment process
Internal deltas e.g.; • New products • New markets • Rationalisation
External deltas e.g.; • Market imbalances • Structural growth • Industry dynamics
• Barriers to entry • Management quality • Cash flow • Balance Sheet • ROE stability
Valuation • Fundamental analysis • Peer Group Analysis • DCF Model • Price Target • But keep it simple
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As of 20 Nov 2012
Morten has 8 years of experience in the financial markets. Morten holds a M.Sc. in Economics.
Claus Henrik JohansenSenior Portfolio ManagerBorn 1970
Claus has 13 years of experience in the financial markets. Claus holds a M.Sc. in International Finance & Macroeconomics.
Jacob has 10 years of experience in the financial markets. Jacob holds a M.Sc. in Economics.
Alexander has 6 years of experience in the financial markets. Alexander holds a M.Sc. in Finance & Accounting.
Jacob Aarup-AndersenChief Portfolio ManagerBorn 1977
Alexander KokfeltSenior Portfolio ManagerBorn 1978
Anders HornbakSenior Portfolio ManagerBorn 1972
Anders has 14 years of experience in the financial markets. Anders holds a M.Sc. in Economics.
Morten FalchSenior Portfolio ManagerBorn 1973
Tobias has 5 years of experience in the financial markets. Tobias holds a M.Sc. in Economics.
Christian RasmussenPortfolio ManagerBorn 1983
Jens BoyeSenior Portfolio ManagerBorn 1965
Tobias Carøe SiemengePortfolio ManagerBorn 1985
Peter has 17 years of experience in the financial markets. Peter holds a M.Sc. in Finance & Accounting.
Ivan has 19 years of experience in the financial markets. Ivan holds a M.Sc. in Economics & Business Administration.
Christian has 1 years of experience in the financial markets. Christian holds a M.Sc. in Economics.
Jens has 22 years of experience in the financial markets. Jens holds a Graduate Diploma in Finance.
Ivan LarsenChief Portfolio ManagerBorn 1962
Henrik has 28 years of experience in the financial markets. Henrik holds a M.Sc. in Economics.
Henrik has 17 years of experience in the financial markets. Henrik holds a Graduate Diploma in Finance.
Henrik FænøeHead of European and Global EquitiesBorn 1957
Henrik Husted KnudsenChief Portfolio ManagerBorn 1970
Max has 19 years of experience in the financial markets. Max holds a CFA® in Finance.
Hans-Henrik GarderChief Portfolio ManagerBorn 1966
Allan NielsenSenior Portfolio ManagerBorn 1970
Hans-Henrik has 27 years of experience in the financial markets. Hans-Henrik holds a Graduate Diploma in Finance.
Max Jul PedersenSenior Portfolio ManagerBorn 1970
Allan has 16 years of experience in the financial markets. Allan holds a M.Sc. in Finance & Accounting.
Asger has 24 years of experience in the financial markets. Asger holds a M.Sc. in Economics.
John William OlsenChief Portfolio ManagerBorn 1971
John has 16 years of experience in the financial markets. John holds a M.Sc. in Economics & Business Administration.
Asger Lund NielsenSenior Portfolio ManagerBorn 1963
Peter NielsenChief Portfolio ManagerBorn 1973
European and Global Equities Network
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The European and Global Equity network – summary
• Fundamental bottom-up stockpicking and long term thinking guides the investments • Half the managers have been working together for more than 10 years
• Many members have responsibilities both as sector specialists and portfolio
managers
• All sectors are covered by a responsible sector specialist, but the portfolio mangers are an important part of the idea generation process
• All products benefit from the same pool of in-depth knowledge about the european and global equity markets
• Every portfolio has a responsible portfolio manager who has full discretion of the portfolio
• The team-based network structure ensures exchange of knowledge
Return on Knowledge
European Equities Long X Short Dynamic
Frankfurt , 2013
13
Chief Portfolio Manager at Danske Capital since 2012
10 years+ in London working for leading financial institutions
Goldman Sachs (Associate)
Highbridge Capital (Head of European TMT)
Montrica Investment Mgmt (Partner)
TPG-Axon Capital (Principal)
Part of starting Montrica Inv Mgmt in 2006, 2nd largest European hedge fund launch that year.
Sold Montrica to TPG-Axon in 2010
Recognized as strong active owner
NKT, Danisco, Drillisch and G4S examples
Won the 2012 Brendan Wood TopGun price as one of Europe’s top TMT investors.
Jacob Aarup-Andersen Alexander Kokfelt
8 years intensive investment experience
Private equity analyst at SR Private Brands (small cap PE fund) for 2 years
Senior Portfolio Manager at Danske Capital for 6 years
Part of top ranking European stockpicking team
Focus on European small/midcap
Investment style is fundamental concentrated stock picking
Sector responsibility for Energy and Cap Goods for all European equities teams
Reserve officer in the Danish army prior to becoming an investor
External lecturer in corporate finance at Copenhagen Business School
Portfolio Managers
Very Complimentary Competencies
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European small- and midcap focused long/short fund with a focus on investing in "value with a catalyst/delta“
Market neutral over time / un-correlated returns
Large team (18) of investment professionals analyzing European equities for the hedge fund and the award winning long only funds
Dynamically sized, and diversified portfolio of 25-35 strategies, with an average holding period of 9-12 months
Rigorous investment process centred on deep fundamental bottom-up company research with dynamic allocation of capital between best opportunities to ensure the best risk-adjusted portfolio
Active owner approach with ongoing management dialogue Risk management is key. Very rigorous tailormade hedging strategy and
internal processes to actively address problematic positions early on
Capital preservation and absolute returns
UCITS fund with daily liquidity
Fund Overview
Market cap orientation:
<EUR 5bn
Market Neutral
Delta / Catalyst
Tailormade Hedging
Stockpicking
Limits of 8% for longs and
5% for shorts
Gross Exposure of 150-
250%
Average of 25-35
strategies
Return Target of
5-9% above Repo Rate
Turnover Ratio:
Approx 100%
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We look for companies, industries and securities undergoing transformational change.
Anything that involves a significant change in the equity story or leads to a transition from one set of holders of the security to another set of holders.
Utilise a more diversified set of tools at our disposal to take advantage of mis-pricings
The analysis often centres around understanding the pro-forma company post the catalyst and positioning the fund appropriately ahead of the event, and often before other participants are able/allowed to position themselves.
We believe that some of the best opportunities are often created by investors’ structural or
behavioural constraints.
Assessing risk / reward across different asset classes / strategies is therefore important when determining where to deploy capital.
Any risk disliked by traditional long-only managers provides the potential for attractive returns.
Informational or analytical edge is key:
In order for an opportunity to be attractive to us, there needs to be an analysis or informational edge we have developed through our work, allowing us to more intelligently assume a risk that others can not.
Delta is Key
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Share Classes
Merger Arbitrage
Holding Companies
Re-Financings
Distressed
Asset Restructurings
Changed Industry Dynamics
Dutch Auctions Financial Restructurings &
B/S optimizations
Dual Listed Structures
M&A / IPO Events
Placings / Rights Issues Mergers & Acquisitions &
Divestitures / Spins
We believe that we are in an attractive environment for delta focused investing,
irrespective of the direction of the economy and markets
Conglomerates
Company Events /
Catalysts
Relative Value
with Catalyst
Announced
Deals Credit Events
Management Change / Strategic Change
For example, many ways to play a rights issue: 1. Short position pre-event 2. Rights arbitrage (long rights, short stock) 3. Crash protection trade (rights are zero-delta
for underwriters until it’s close to rights price) 4. Over-allotment trade 5. Technical long post rights period
Delta Investing Defined
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High quality businesses
Long-term sustainable business models and strong management teams
Ability to gain an edge angle and ability to influence decisions as an active owner
Balance sheet potential, either to deploy into earnings enhancing M&A or to return to shareholders
We will avoid over-levered balance sheets as they pose significant risks to equity holders in times of operational issues
Earnings momentum
Investors are willing to pay a premium for earnings momentum
Strong valuation upside
Margin of safety is a key risk management tool
Good underlying FCF generation
Attractive reinvestment opportunities – look for change in return profile
Technical aspects:
Ability to hedge away unwanted risk
Liquidity / Scalability
What do we look for in an Investment – beyond Delta?
18
Portfolio Composition
Outright Positions
Outright Longs
Outright Shorts
Value with a catalyst
Relative Value positions
Full hedging of all unwanted risks
Majority of positions beta neutral
15-30%
50-75%
0-25%
Special Situations
Merger arbitrage
Rights issues
Capital structure trades
+ / - X%
Overlay
Futures/Puts
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Performance and AUM
Performance AUM (EURm)
Investor Split Top Winners and Losers (YTD)
Strategy BPS Strategy BPS
UNITED INTERNET 178 SEISMIC -36
DRILLISCH 114 LANXESS -40
FUGRO 95 SAIPEM -43
JAZZTEL 89 ARCHER -49
NORMA 72 AKER -167
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Risk
Performance in Market Stress1
(since inception)
Risk Metrics
VAR (1 month, 99%): 3,2%
Volatility: 4,4%
RBC Stress-Testing
Portf Return
Tech Falls 1,02%
LTCM -0,94%
Asian Crisis -1,57%
G8 Equity Shift 1m worst 97-05 -1,56%
Sept 01 crash -0,72%
Oct 2008 crash -4,08%
Oct 1987 crash -2,60%
1 Days when SX5E fell more than 1%
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Current Portfolio Composition
Current portfolio consists of 34 strategies
Largest Strategies
# of
strategies Long Short Long Short
Relative Value 24 73% -64% 77% -63%
Outright 8 15% -18% 14% -20%
Special Sits 2 2% 0% 1% 0%
Net Exposure
Cash 9%
Nominal Exposure Beta-Adj Exposure
8% 9%
Nom Beta Nom Beta Nom Beta Nom Beta
Aker Solutions 4,7% 7,2% Fugro 4,8% 5,2% Tele2 4,1% 1,8% ZON 3,6% 2,8%
Stoxx600 Oil&Gas -2,5% -2,5% Technip -1,2% -1,3% Teliasonera -1,6% -1,1% Belgacom -0,9% -0,9%
Total -1,1% -0,9% Seadrill -1,3% -1,1% TDC -0,4% -0,1% Teliasonera -0,6% -0,4%
Fred Olsen -1,0% -1,2% Tecnicas -1,3% -1,0% Telefonica -0,6% -0,6% Telefonica -1,4% -1,4%
Neste Oil -0,6% -0,7% SX5E -1,8% -1,8% 1,5% 0,0% 0,6% 0,1%
-0,5% 1,9% -0,9% 0,0%
ZONAker Solutions Fugro Tele2
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Portuguese cable player challenging Portugal Telecom in fixed line, bb and TV
Great management team and resilient business model and earnings profile
Continued EBITDA growth through the economic crisis in Portugal
Strong value support:
Significantly cheaper cable operator versus rest of Europe
40% valuation discount to European cable names
Significant delta:
Merging with Optimus (3rd largest mobile player) to create only fully integrated competitor to Portugal Telecom
Strong cost and revenue synergy potential => Clear driver of earnings growth
Merger driving a change of shareholder base (banks replaced by more proactive investors)
Cash return story:
ZON is underlevered with expected ND/EBITDA of <2x and falling further due to strong cash flow
Cable names are usually levered 3-4x EBITDA
Takeover target:
Significant M&A activity in the European cable sector.
Liberty Global clear about wanting to “buy in Southern Europe”
Hedging: Portugal Telecom, Telefonica and other telco names
Investment Case: ZON Multimedia
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Fugro services – seabed analysis, mapping, ROV activities, satellite positioning of rigs and vessels
• What’s the opportunity? We see strong, visible demand for subsea services through 2020
• High degree of competence and technology is required (nice markets, few competitors, stable prices, growing demand) • Fugro is showing capital discipline by divesting non core divisions (seismic) and refocusing on core areas where Fugro has leading markets positions and high returns.
• Offshore constructions orders, is a leading indicator of Fugro future activity. Profitability catch up vs. offshore contractors. • Strong FCF and balance sheet allows re-investment into high return areas. Fugro has a strong track record of high return investments and capital discipline.
Consistent Growth in Wells, Especially Deepwater
Large investments needed to produce deepwater oil
Investment Case: Fugro
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Summary
European small- and midcap focused long/short fund
Fundamental stockpicking focus (18 dedicated analysts and PMs)
Value with a catalyst / delta
Market neutral over time / un-correlated returns
Risk management and capital preservation is no 1 priority
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Disclaimer & Contact information This publication has been prepared by Danske Capital for information purposes only. The presentation must be read in conjunction with the oral presentation provided by Danske Capital.
Danske CapitalParallelvej 17DK-2800 Kgs. LyngbyTel. +45 45 13 96 00Fax +45 45 14 98 03http://www.danskecapital.com