European equities long x short dynamic danske capital

25
Return on Knowledge Danske Capital European Equities Long X Short Dynamic - Frankfurt , 2013

description

 

Transcript of European equities long x short dynamic danske capital

Page 1: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

Return on Knowledge

Danske Capital – European Equities Long X Short Dynamic -

Frankfurt , 2013

Page 2: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

2

Agenda

• Introduction to Danske Capital and Equity Investment Team Page 3 European Equities Long x Short Dynamic : • Team, philosophy, process, performance and risk management Page 12

Page 3: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

3

Total assets: € 445 bnShareholders’ equity: € 19.0 bnSolvency ratio: 21.8 %RoE (YTD): 6.2 %Rating: S&P A-/Moody’s Baa1 (long term) No. of employees: 19.981As of June 2013

AuM total € 95.2 bnInstitutional: € 49.2 bnRetail: € 46 bn

No. of inst. & pooled acc. Clients: 2,469No. of employees (AM): 368As of July 2013

Danske Bank Group

Danske Capital

competencies

• European Equities • European Hedge Funds • European Credits • European Fixed Income • Global Equities • Global Inflation Linked Bonds • Local Equities and fixed income • Solutions

Danske Capital -The asset management division of Danske Bank -

Page 4: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

4

Investment philosophy

• Focus – “we manage only products where we can deliver world class performance”

• Non -areas outsourced

• Focused and independent investment teams – Boutiques

• No committees nor binding “house view”

• Tailor-made and disciplined investment processes based on team skills and DNA

• Bottom-up understanding and high conviction key characteristics

• Structured knowledge-sharing between Boutiques

Page 5: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

5

Clients and assets

Alpha Products

-

More than € 90 billion under managementMore than 2400 institutional clients, corporate clients and pooled accounts

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%Assets under management by Client Type

Individuals; 0,88% Funds; 9,84%

Mutual funds; 51,97% Life & pension insurance; 22,53%

Pension funds; 4,06% Companies; 6,2%

Other institutional clients; 2,73% Public institutions & housing societies; 1,78%

Asset Class AUM m EuroEuropean Equities 7.996

Global Equities 1.309Emerging European Equities 474Nordic Equities 4.161European Fixed Income 7.728Global Fixed Income 1.917European Hedge 1.370Nordic Fixed Income 32.893July-13

Page 6: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

6

Significant Resources In All Alpha Areas

Personnel Investment Professionals: Alpha Personnel

Investment Management Equities European Equities 10

- Solutions 45 Eastern European Equities & Local Analysts 9

- Alpha 81 Global Equities 5

Institutional Sales 53 Danish Equities 3

Global Business Support 139 Finnish Equities 8

Management, Business Management & Legal 50 Swedish Equities 4

Total # of employees in Danske Capital 368 Norwegian Equities 3

Equity Hedge 4

Trading 8

Personnel 54

Asset Class Asset Allocation 3 Fixed Income European Corporate Bonds 6

Equity & Fixed Income Solutions 5 Global Fixed Income & FX 5

External Solutions & Risk Management 12 Danish Fixed Income 6

Subtotal 20 Finnish Fixed Income 2

Country Solution Denmark 10 Swedish Fixed Income 2

Solution Finland 14 Norwegian Fixed Income 3

Solution Norway 1 Fixed Income Hedge 3

Subtotal 25 Subtotal 27

45 Total # of Investment Professionals: Alpha 81

As of august 2013

Danske Capital - Headcount

Subtotal

Total # of Investment Professionals: Solutions

Investment Professionals: Solutions

Page 7: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

7

The portfolio teams interact on the basis of a shared knowledge base

Europe Alpha

Europe Stockpicking

Europe LS Dynamic

Global Equities

High Dividend

Page 8: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

8

European and Global Equities: Structure and workflow

Sector Specialist

Sector Specialist

Competence Person

Sector Specialist

Competence Person

Sector Specialist

Sector Specialist

Sector Specialist

PORTFOLIO TEAM

PORTFOLIO TEAM

PORTFOLIO TEAM

PORTFOLIO TEAM

Page 9: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

9

Quality

Delta

The common elements in the investment process

Internal deltas e.g.; • New products • New markets • Rationalisation

External deltas e.g.; • Market imbalances • Structural growth • Industry dynamics

• Barriers to entry • Management quality • Cash flow • Balance Sheet • ROE stability

Valuation • Fundamental analysis • Peer Group Analysis • DCF Model • Price Target • But keep it simple

Page 10: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

10

As of 20 Nov 2012

Morten has 8 years of experience in the financial markets. Morten holds a M.Sc. in Economics.

Claus Henrik JohansenSenior Portfolio ManagerBorn 1970

Claus has 13 years of experience in the financial markets. Claus holds a M.Sc. in International Finance & Macroeconomics.

Jacob has 10 years of experience in the financial markets. Jacob holds a M.Sc. in Economics.

Alexander has 6 years of experience in the financial markets. Alexander holds a M.Sc. in Finance & Accounting.

Jacob Aarup-AndersenChief Portfolio ManagerBorn 1977

Alexander KokfeltSenior Portfolio ManagerBorn 1978

Anders HornbakSenior Portfolio ManagerBorn 1972

Anders has 14 years of experience in the financial markets. Anders holds a M.Sc. in Economics.

Morten FalchSenior Portfolio ManagerBorn 1973

Tobias has 5 years of experience in the financial markets. Tobias holds a M.Sc. in Economics.

Christian RasmussenPortfolio ManagerBorn 1983

Jens BoyeSenior Portfolio ManagerBorn 1965

Tobias Carøe SiemengePortfolio ManagerBorn 1985

Peter has 17 years of experience in the financial markets. Peter holds a M.Sc. in Finance & Accounting.

Ivan has 19 years of experience in the financial markets. Ivan holds a M.Sc. in Economics & Business Administration.

Christian has 1 years of experience in the financial markets. Christian holds a M.Sc. in Economics.

Jens has 22 years of experience in the financial markets. Jens holds a Graduate Diploma in Finance.

Ivan LarsenChief Portfolio ManagerBorn 1962

Henrik has 28 years of experience in the financial markets. Henrik holds a M.Sc. in Economics.

Henrik has 17 years of experience in the financial markets. Henrik holds a Graduate Diploma in Finance.

Henrik FænøeHead of European and Global EquitiesBorn 1957

Henrik Husted KnudsenChief Portfolio ManagerBorn 1970

Max has 19 years of experience in the financial markets. Max holds a CFA® in Finance.

Hans-Henrik GarderChief Portfolio ManagerBorn 1966

Allan NielsenSenior Portfolio ManagerBorn 1970

Hans-Henrik has 27 years of experience in the financial markets. Hans-Henrik holds a Graduate Diploma in Finance.

Max Jul PedersenSenior Portfolio ManagerBorn 1970

Allan has 16 years of experience in the financial markets. Allan holds a M.Sc. in Finance & Accounting.

Asger has 24 years of experience in the financial markets. Asger holds a M.Sc. in Economics.

John William OlsenChief Portfolio ManagerBorn 1971

John has 16 years of experience in the financial markets. John holds a M.Sc. in Economics & Business Administration.

Asger Lund NielsenSenior Portfolio ManagerBorn 1963

Peter NielsenChief Portfolio ManagerBorn 1973

European and Global Equities Network

Page 11: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

11

The European and Global Equity network – summary

• Fundamental bottom-up stockpicking and long term thinking guides the investments • Half the managers have been working together for more than 10 years

• Many members have responsibilities both as sector specialists and portfolio

managers

• All sectors are covered by a responsible sector specialist, but the portfolio mangers are an important part of the idea generation process

• All products benefit from the same pool of in-depth knowledge about the european and global equity markets

• Every portfolio has a responsible portfolio manager who has full discretion of the portfolio

• The team-based network structure ensures exchange of knowledge

Page 12: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

Return on Knowledge

European Equities Long X Short Dynamic

Frankfurt , 2013

Page 13: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

13

Chief Portfolio Manager at Danske Capital since 2012

10 years+ in London working for leading financial institutions

Goldman Sachs (Associate)

Highbridge Capital (Head of European TMT)

Montrica Investment Mgmt (Partner)

TPG-Axon Capital (Principal)

Part of starting Montrica Inv Mgmt in 2006, 2nd largest European hedge fund launch that year.

Sold Montrica to TPG-Axon in 2010

Recognized as strong active owner

NKT, Danisco, Drillisch and G4S examples

Won the 2012 Brendan Wood TopGun price as one of Europe’s top TMT investors.

Jacob Aarup-Andersen Alexander Kokfelt

8 years intensive investment experience

Private equity analyst at SR Private Brands (small cap PE fund) for 2 years

Senior Portfolio Manager at Danske Capital for 6 years

Part of top ranking European stockpicking team

Focus on European small/midcap

Investment style is fundamental concentrated stock picking

Sector responsibility for Energy and Cap Goods for all European equities teams

Reserve officer in the Danish army prior to becoming an investor

External lecturer in corporate finance at Copenhagen Business School

Portfolio Managers

Very Complimentary Competencies

Page 14: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

14

European small- and midcap focused long/short fund with a focus on investing in "value with a catalyst/delta“

Market neutral over time / un-correlated returns

Large team (18) of investment professionals analyzing European equities for the hedge fund and the award winning long only funds

Dynamically sized, and diversified portfolio of 25-35 strategies, with an average holding period of 9-12 months

Rigorous investment process centred on deep fundamental bottom-up company research with dynamic allocation of capital between best opportunities to ensure the best risk-adjusted portfolio

Active owner approach with ongoing management dialogue Risk management is key. Very rigorous tailormade hedging strategy and

internal processes to actively address problematic positions early on

Capital preservation and absolute returns

UCITS fund with daily liquidity

Fund Overview

Market cap orientation:

<EUR 5bn

Market Neutral

Delta / Catalyst

Tailormade Hedging

Stockpicking

Limits of 8% for longs and

5% for shorts

Gross Exposure of 150-

250%

Average of 25-35

strategies

Return Target of

5-9% above Repo Rate

Turnover Ratio:

Approx 100%

Page 15: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

15

We look for companies, industries and securities undergoing transformational change.

Anything that involves a significant change in the equity story or leads to a transition from one set of holders of the security to another set of holders.

Utilise a more diversified set of tools at our disposal to take advantage of mis-pricings

The analysis often centres around understanding the pro-forma company post the catalyst and positioning the fund appropriately ahead of the event, and often before other participants are able/allowed to position themselves.

We believe that some of the best opportunities are often created by investors’ structural or

behavioural constraints.

Assessing risk / reward across different asset classes / strategies is therefore important when determining where to deploy capital.

Any risk disliked by traditional long-only managers provides the potential for attractive returns.

Informational or analytical edge is key:

In order for an opportunity to be attractive to us, there needs to be an analysis or informational edge we have developed through our work, allowing us to more intelligently assume a risk that others can not.

Delta is Key

Page 16: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

16

Share Classes

Merger Arbitrage

Holding Companies

Re-Financings

Distressed

Asset Restructurings

Changed Industry Dynamics

Dutch Auctions Financial Restructurings &

B/S optimizations

Dual Listed Structures

M&A / IPO Events

Placings / Rights Issues Mergers & Acquisitions &

Divestitures / Spins

We believe that we are in an attractive environment for delta focused investing,

irrespective of the direction of the economy and markets

Conglomerates

Company Events /

Catalysts

Relative Value

with Catalyst

Announced

Deals Credit Events

Management Change / Strategic Change

For example, many ways to play a rights issue: 1. Short position pre-event 2. Rights arbitrage (long rights, short stock) 3. Crash protection trade (rights are zero-delta

for underwriters until it’s close to rights price) 4. Over-allotment trade 5. Technical long post rights period

Delta Investing Defined

Page 17: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

17

High quality businesses

Long-term sustainable business models and strong management teams

Ability to gain an edge angle and ability to influence decisions as an active owner

Balance sheet potential, either to deploy into earnings enhancing M&A or to return to shareholders

We will avoid over-levered balance sheets as they pose significant risks to equity holders in times of operational issues

Earnings momentum

Investors are willing to pay a premium for earnings momentum

Strong valuation upside

Margin of safety is a key risk management tool

Good underlying FCF generation

Attractive reinvestment opportunities – look for change in return profile

Technical aspects:

Ability to hedge away unwanted risk

Liquidity / Scalability

What do we look for in an Investment – beyond Delta?

Page 18: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

18

Portfolio Composition

Outright Positions

Outright Longs

Outright Shorts

Value with a catalyst

Relative Value positions

Full hedging of all unwanted risks

Majority of positions beta neutral

15-30%

50-75%

0-25%

Special Situations

Merger arbitrage

Rights issues

Capital structure trades

+ / - X%

Overlay

Futures/Puts

Page 19: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

19

Performance and AUM

Performance AUM (EURm)

Investor Split Top Winners and Losers (YTD)

Strategy BPS Strategy BPS

UNITED INTERNET 178 SEISMIC -36

DRILLISCH 114 LANXESS -40

FUGRO 95 SAIPEM -43

JAZZTEL 89 ARCHER -49

NORMA 72 AKER -167

Page 20: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

20

Risk

Performance in Market Stress1

(since inception)

Risk Metrics

VAR (1 month, 99%): 3,2%

Volatility: 4,4%

RBC Stress-Testing

Portf Return

Tech Falls 1,02%

LTCM -0,94%

Asian Crisis -1,57%

G8 Equity Shift 1m worst 97-05 -1,56%

Sept 01 crash -0,72%

Oct 2008 crash -4,08%

Oct 1987 crash -2,60%

1 Days when SX5E fell more than 1%

Page 21: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

21

Current Portfolio Composition

Current portfolio consists of 34 strategies

Largest Strategies

# of

strategies Long Short Long Short

Relative Value 24 73% -64% 77% -63%

Outright 8 15% -18% 14% -20%

Special Sits 2 2% 0% 1% 0%

Net Exposure

Cash 9%

Nominal Exposure Beta-Adj Exposure

8% 9%

Nom Beta Nom Beta Nom Beta Nom Beta

Aker Solutions 4,7% 7,2% Fugro 4,8% 5,2% Tele2 4,1% 1,8% ZON 3,6% 2,8%

Stoxx600 Oil&Gas -2,5% -2,5% Technip -1,2% -1,3% Teliasonera -1,6% -1,1% Belgacom -0,9% -0,9%

Total -1,1% -0,9% Seadrill -1,3% -1,1% TDC -0,4% -0,1% Teliasonera -0,6% -0,4%

Fred Olsen -1,0% -1,2% Tecnicas -1,3% -1,0% Telefonica -0,6% -0,6% Telefonica -1,4% -1,4%

Neste Oil -0,6% -0,7% SX5E -1,8% -1,8% 1,5% 0,0% 0,6% 0,1%

-0,5% 1,9% -0,9% 0,0%

ZONAker Solutions Fugro Tele2

Page 22: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

22

Portuguese cable player challenging Portugal Telecom in fixed line, bb and TV

Great management team and resilient business model and earnings profile

Continued EBITDA growth through the economic crisis in Portugal

Strong value support:

Significantly cheaper cable operator versus rest of Europe

40% valuation discount to European cable names

Significant delta:

Merging with Optimus (3rd largest mobile player) to create only fully integrated competitor to Portugal Telecom

Strong cost and revenue synergy potential => Clear driver of earnings growth

Merger driving a change of shareholder base (banks replaced by more proactive investors)

Cash return story:

ZON is underlevered with expected ND/EBITDA of <2x and falling further due to strong cash flow

Cable names are usually levered 3-4x EBITDA

Takeover target:

Significant M&A activity in the European cable sector.

Liberty Global clear about wanting to “buy in Southern Europe”

Hedging: Portugal Telecom, Telefonica and other telco names

Investment Case: ZON Multimedia

Page 23: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

23

Fugro services – seabed analysis, mapping, ROV activities, satellite positioning of rigs and vessels

• What’s the opportunity? We see strong, visible demand for subsea services through 2020

• High degree of competence and technology is required (nice markets, few competitors, stable prices, growing demand) • Fugro is showing capital discipline by divesting non core divisions (seismic) and refocusing on core areas where Fugro has leading markets positions and high returns.

• Offshore constructions orders, is a leading indicator of Fugro future activity. Profitability catch up vs. offshore contractors. • Strong FCF and balance sheet allows re-investment into high return areas. Fugro has a strong track record of high return investments and capital discipline.

Consistent Growth in Wells, Especially Deepwater

Large investments needed to produce deepwater oil

Investment Case: Fugro

Page 24: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

24

Summary

European small- and midcap focused long/short fund

Fundamental stockpicking focus (18 dedicated analysts and PMs)

Value with a catalyst / delta

Market neutral over time / un-correlated returns

Risk management and capital preservation is no 1 priority

Page 25: European equities long x short dynamic   danske capital

25

Disclaimer & Contact information This publication has been prepared by Danske Capital for information purposes only. The presentation must be read in conjunction with the oral presentation provided by Danske Capital.

Danske CapitalParallelvej 17DK-2800 Kgs. LyngbyTel. +45 45 13 96 00Fax +45 45 14 98 03http://www.danskecapital.com