EUROPE QUARTER BY NUMBERS · initiatives that will lead to an explosion of e-commerce in the coming...

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Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company

Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

QUARTER BY

NUMBERS Q4 2017

EUROPE

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CONTENTS

SECTION 1

THE BIG PICTURE: EUROPE WEST

Message from Olivier Deschamps…………………..…………………….………03

EUROPE AT A GLANCE

Key economic drivers………………………………………………………….……04

Looking through Europe West FMCG lens………………………………...……06

COUNTRY SNAPSHOT

Belgium……….………………………………………….…………………………..07

France……….………………………………………..….…………………………..10

Germany……….……………………………………..….…………………………..13

Italy……………………………………………………….…………………………..16

Netherlands..….…………………………………….……………….………………19

Portugal……….……………………………………..………………….……………22

Spain………………………………………………………………….………………25

United Kingdom.……………….…………………………………….………………28

IN THE INDUSTRY

Retail Channel Universe Update……...………………………..…………………93

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THE BIG PICTURE:

EUROPE WEST

Olivier Deschamps

Retail Services

Lead Markets

Welcome to the first edition of Europe Quarter by Numbers that includes key Western

European markets for Q4 2017, complimenting the view of Central and East Europe already

in place. Our ambition is to provide context and insight into how broader macroeconomic

factors are influencing consumer sentiment and spending patterns in the retail scene.

After tough times in the last few years, 2017 showed a dynamic economic environment across

Europe, with positive consumer confidence in the region reaching some of the highest levels

seen for some time. While nations can draw similarities among the positive impacts on

consumer sentiment, Europeans diverge in the national issues of greatest concern - terrorism

remains high on the list and health is definitely a key priority with countries like Portugal

showing notable peaks. Encouraged by lower risk of terrorism and better economic conditions,

tourists flocked to the region in 2017 (+8%), particularly in Mediterranean countries. France

was still the number one global tourist destination and Spain is about to exceed USA. Western

European countries also remained strong with the best economic growth see in 10 years.

GDP increased +2.5% in 2017 and is now stable following recovery from a number of

economic and political crises over the last decade. Among Eurozone's largest economies,

GDP growth slowed slightly in Germany, Italy and Spain in Q4, but picked up in France,

Netherlands and Belgium.

In this favorable context, the FMCG industry rose with significant value growth across the

region, led by Iberia where both Portugal (+6.7%) and Spain (+5.3%) are growing fast. In

every market inflation is feeding growth, but volumes are also doing well in 2017, benefitting

also from better weather than in 2016 leading to a direct impact on Beverage categories.

The exceptions being both Belgium and Netherlands where volumes are declining by -0.3%.

Putting money into savings is the first priority for the majority of markets and consumers

continue to navigate the retail environment with a savings mindset, seeking the best deals

when shopping. Discounters like Aldi and Lidl are pushing hard across the region and gaining

share, modifying the retail landscape. Another key trend is the rapid increase of digital

initiatives that will lead to an explosion of e-commerce in the coming years. Best examples are

now France and UK where e-commerce has gained 6% share of FMCG and increasing with

online `clicks` growing still faster than store “bricks”. This is within the context of a moderately

inflationary environment in Western Europe at the end of 2017.

We have seen recently that growth in FMCG is getting harder and harder to achieve but

winners can be found across all sectors and markets with many examples of companies,

segments and channels performing strongly. Without a doubt, where we see massive and

sustained growth is among small players, doing much better than the bigger players across

countries. In a number of markets, local brands are capitalizing on revived “local pride”,

leveraging an appeal from consumers toward local consumption and a push from retailers

towards premium, local champions, who frequently offer products with health and wellness

benefits, organic ingredients or “free-from” claims.

Private Labels are also gaining traction across these markets (except in France), at a time

when many retailers have revamped their own brands, upgrading ranges and investing in

communication. That said, big or small, retailers or manufacturers, it’s up to all the players in

the industry to understand the nuances by market and connect with local consumers.

4


EUROPE WEST MARKETS AT A

GLANCE

ECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS

AROUND EUROPE

The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index measures perceptions of local job

prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer

confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of

optimism and pessimism, respectively.

Positive consumer sentiment across the region with record high

indices in various markets – only declining in Belgium and UK

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX


GDP and Inflation reflect % change per annum to Q4 or latest available data

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)/local government sources

The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

Q4 2017Q4 2017 vs

Q3 2017

GDP

(annual %

growth)

Inflation

Belgium 85 -10 1.7 2.0

UK 96 -3 1.5 2.8

GDP

(annual %

growth)

Inflation Q4 2017Q4 2017 vs

Q3 2017

2.4 1.2 France 79 8

1.7 1.1 Italy 68 3

2.9 1.6 Germany 103 0

3.2 1.6 Spain 93 0

3.1 1.3 Netherlands 101 0

2.1 1.8 Portugal 84 0

5


38

48

27

51

4245

40

5047

37

29

51

44

2831

45

2822

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

EU BE DE ES FR GB IT NL PTPutting into savings New clothes

1923

1517

13 14

19 20

27

1921

33

18

34

26

16

23

10

0

10

20

30

40

EU BE DE ES FR GB IT NL PTHealth Terrorism

Putting money into savings is #1 priority for majority of W. Europe

markets, spend on clothes is important in Germany, Italy and Spain

WHAT ARE THE TOP 2 CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?

WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING AND INVESTING?

Type of concern

After living expenses, how is spare money spent

Bars reflect Q4 2017. Table shows comparison to Q3 2017

EUROPE WEST

MARKETS AT A GLANCE


CONSUMER SENTIMENTS IN

EUROPE

EU BE DE ES FR GB IT NL PT

Health 1 -5 2 -3 -1 3 0 -3 5

Terrorism -6 -7 -3 -20 -4 -10 -10 -4 -14

EU BE DE ES FR GB IT NL PT

Putting into savings 1 9 0 3 -1 0 -6 1 0

New clothes 1 4 6 -1 -2 3 -1 0 3

The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

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GERMANY (-0.4%)

PORTUGAL (+1.5%)

UK (+1.7%)

FRANCE (+0.7%)

LOOKING THROUGH EUROPE WEST FMCG LENS

FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICS – Q4 2017

Weighted average – WEST EUROPE – 8 countries

WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?

Average volume growth Q3 2017 & Q4 2017

Avg. volume growth decreasing versus last period

Avg. volume growth increasing versus last period

2.1% 1.4%

3.2%

1.3%

3.2%3.8%

2.1%1.2%

-0.3%

1.4%

0.5%

1.7%

-0.3%

2.9%

3.2%

2.8%

1.8%

2.8%

3.7%

3.1% 2.9%

6.7%

5.3%

4.0%

BE FR DE IT NL PT ES GB

Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth

ITALY (+2.1%)

BELGIUM (-0.5%)

NETHERLANDS (-0.6%)

SPAIN (+2.8%)

Colour coding indicates growth or declining trend

compared to same 6 month period year ago

Average volume growth of Q3’17 & Q4’17 vs Q3’16 & Q4’16.

7


BELGIUM SNAPSHOT

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH

Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

1.61.4

1.8

1.51.7 1.7

1.9 2.0

3.0

2.0 1.9 2.0

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017

GDP growth (% change pa)

Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)

79 81 8185 87 87

7681

8984

95

85

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU BE

Pedro Lima

Managing Director

Benelux

While Belgium’s economy is growing significantly, the growth remains minimal compared

to neighboring markets. The European Commission believes Belgium’s growth in 2018 will

be the second slowest in the Eurozone. After several quarters hovering around the 70 to

80s, consumer confidence has stabilized at 85. Half of Belgian people believe that the

country is in a recession at the moment, with a little less than one third believing it is a

good time to buy the things they want or need.

The FMCG market grew 1.3% in 2017, which is slower than GDP growth and with volume

sales dropping slightly. In addition, Belgium’s FMCG price gap has widened versus

neighboring countries over the past 15 years, creating cross-border competition for

consumers. Over half of Belgians surveyed say they’ve changed spending to cut down on

household spending, with 57% saying they have switched to cheaper grocery brands to

save on household expenses.

In mature markets like Belgium, the struggle for manufacturers is to find growth

opportunities. While elusive, they are present. In Belgium, capitalizing on local footprint

and distribution channels are major growth drivers for total FMCG. This year most growth

was driven by Hard Discounters, due to introduction of national brands and premium

products, and Large Supermarkets, which successfully offer a wide assortment at

competitive pricing. Superettes remain small but experienced the largest growth.

There are great opportunities for manufacturers who successfully innovate with local niche

products, giving them a local relevance and authenticity that resonates well with

consumers. Strong, established brands, particularly within Impulse categories, can benefit

from growth by listing at Hard Discounters - even without compromising on price.

Experimenting with pack sizing can also be a tactic to combat rising costs, with Millennials

in particular open to smaller sizes, especially if it helps keep them healthier. Health is an

increasing priority. Belgian consumers want antibiotic-free, hormone-free, and artificial

preservative/flavor/color-free products; therefore innovating to create products that match

changing consumer demand is another way to find growth in a mature market.

The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence

Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

8


1.3%

0.0%

4.1%

-7.0%

3.3%

7.0%

Total FMCG Hypermarkets Large Supermarkets

Small Supermarkets Hard Discounters Superettes

TOTAL BELGIUM – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

Rising prices rather than volume continues to drive nominal growth

Hypermarkets contract. Growth is mostly driven by Hard Discounters

and smaller stores.

TOTAL BELGIUM - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)

VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017

12%

50%

18%

17%

3%

2.6%

1.4%

3.4%

2.9%

2.3%

1.7%0.9%

1.4%

1.2%

2.1%

-1.6%-0.1%

-1.7% -2.9%-0.8% -1.1% -0.9%

1.4%

-0.8% -0.3%

1.0%1.3%

1.7%

0.0%

1.5%

0.6%0.0%

2.8%

0.4%

1.8%

MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth

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TOTAL BELGIUM – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH

Total FMCG 100.0%

Alcoholic Beverages 14.6%

Dairy 13.3%

Grocery 12.0%

Fresh Products 12.0%

Non Alcoholic Beverages 11.4%

Health & Beauty 8.5%

Housekeeping 5.9%

Frozen 5.0%

Confectionery 4.7%

Sweet Snacks 3.7%

Hot Beverages 2.9%

Salted Snacks 2.3%

Pet Product 2.0%

Bakery & Toast 1.8%

1.3%

-1.1 %

2.3 %

0.5 %

4.5 %

3.1 %

-1.3 %

-0.5 %

1.1 %

1.3 %

0.4 %

1.4 %

3.5 %

-1.1 %

5.6 %

MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH

Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 15.5%

Top 6-10 8.3%

Top 11-30 13.6%

31-100 10.1%

100+ 16.9%

Private Label 35.5%

1.3%

1.3%

0.0%

-1.0%

-0.4%

1.7%

2.7%

TOTAL BELGIUM – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

Manufacturers are mostly growing thanks to innovation. Strong growth

evident from smaller companies and Private Label

Fresh, Bakery and Dairy drive growth.

Great innovation opportunities for local giants in these categories

10


FRANCE SNAPSHOT

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) GDP estimate for Q4 2017

0.9

1.2 1.2

1.8

2.32.4

0.40.6

1.5

1.0 0.9

1.2

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79 81 8185 87 87

66 69 66

7571

79

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU FR

Laurent Zeller

Managing Director

France

The FMCG industry in France had a strong finish in 2017 reporting a +2.8% growth

in value and 1.4% in volume during last quarter, along with a record high consumer

confidence. The Christmas period accounted for almost 20% of the full year FMCG

growth highlighting the importance of understanding seasonality. E-commerce

continues its momentum (mostly click & drive in France) with close to double digit

growth while urban convenience stores also performed strongly with high single

digit growth.

The growing force behind total FMCG growth has been the fresh market industries

(both Dairy and Non-dairy). During the last quarter in France, there has been a

shortage on butter that created huge price inflation on this category, due to supply

and demand effect. This category alone drove 30% of the Dairy sector’s growth

during Q4.

The last quarter has seen an accelerating trend for small and medium FMCG

companies. Given the price deflation for large brands, consumers have improved

purchasing power which has encouraged them to buy more premium segments or

categories. This is a continuing trend of “premiumisation” that has been evident

over the past five years. Likewise, organic food has also seen significant growth in

2017, up 20% in grocery stores and 16% in specialized organic stores.

We anticipate FMCG will grow between 1.5% and 2% in 2018 on the back of better

economic macro trends and positive confidence sentiment, as well as specific 2018

events such as the Soccer World Cup and Olympic games. In 2018, a new

legislation (‘SRP’) will also be introduced which will cap promotional levels for

retailers as well as guaranteeing a fair price to producers. This might create a slight

inflation trend for food products.



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1.5%

0.4%

1.6%

4.2%

8.5%

0.7%

Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets

Convenience Drive (E-Commerce) Smpl / Discounters

TOTAL FRANCE – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

2017 has been a solid year, with a strong last quarter thanks to a very dynamic

Christmas period

TOTAL FRANCE - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


42%

34%

8%

5%

11%

0.8%

1.0% 0.3%

-0.1%

0.8% 0.7%

-0.4%

-1.9%

1.0%1.4%

0.0%

0.5%

2.2%

-0.1% -0.2% -0.3%-0.3%

5.1%0.1% 1.4%

0.8%

1.5%

2.5%

-0.2%0.5% 0.5%

-0.7%

3.2%

1.0%

2.8%



One third of FMCG growth comes from e-commerce, urban convenience

stores and SMPL (Discounters)

12


Fresh products continue to drive growth while the Health and Beauty

sector confirms its long-term decline in grocery stores

TOTAL FRANCE – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL FRANCE – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017


Total FMCG 100.0%

Sweet Grocery 17.9%

Fresh Non-Dairy 16.9%

Dairy 16.1%

Savoury Grocery 12.2%

Alcoholic Drinks 9.7%

Soft Drinks 7.1%

Homecare 5.9%

Personal Care 5.9%

Paper Products 3.6%

Savoury Frozen Food 3.5%

Sweet Frozen Food 1.2%

1.5%

1.8%

3.8%

1.5%

1.2%

2.5%

2.4%

-0.4%

-2.5%

-0.9%

-1.2%

4.2%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 12.0%

Top 6-10 7.4%

Top 11-30 16.4%

31-100 16.2%

100+ 15.6%

Private Label 32.5%

1.5%

0.5%

-2.3%

1.5%

4.7%

4.8%

-0.1%

Small and medium companies are driving growth due to consumer demand

and support for local produce and delivery

13


GERMANY SNAPSHOT

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


1.9 1.92.1

2.3

2.8 2.9

0.4

1.0

1.9

1.61.7 1.6

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79 81 8185 87 87

96 100 101 103 102 103

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU DE

Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) GDP forecast for Q4 2017

Ingo Schier

Managing Director

Germany

The overall economy in Germany is good with GDP growth at 2.9% combined with a

healthy inflation rate and the lowest unemployment rate since the Reunification of

Germany (5.3%). While still considered a strong export-champion, current economic

growth is also supported by solid domestic consumption. The continuously low

Eurozone interest rates entice consumers to spend more money, especially for out-

of-home consumption and durable consumer goods. Despite the “Diesel scandal”,

the automobile industry is thriving. Sales of new automobiles were promoted by

trade-ins throughout the industry and local legal ramifications were limited. But

recent judicial decisions hold the potential to stir things up in 2018.

The Consumer Confidence Index is stable and far above European average (103 vs.

87 for Q4 2017). Two thirds of Germans have an excellent or good attitude towards

their own job prospects and more than 50% judge their financial situation as good or

excellent.

FMCG value growth (+1.8%) remains lower than GDP development. Enhanced

listings of A-brands at Aldi is triggering heightened price consciousness among

consumers and price-focused reactions by other retailers. Hyper and supermarkets

are increasing their focus on Private label activities and promotions. The number of

shopping trips consumers are making have been in decline over the last years. Even

if consumers spend more per trip, the change in behaviour impacts the number of

potential touch points specifically in the brick and mortar environment. E-commerce

represents an approximate 1% share of Total FMCG but in categories where online

is already important, the market is dominated by pure players. The major offline retail

players are not yet investing heavily in e-commerce platforms due to expected lower

return on investment than in the offline world.

The key challenge for manufacturers is in determining how to win in a saturated

market where price increases for established brands will not work. Both parties,

retailers and manufacturers ought to invest in designing a premium strategy where

products and services are clearly differentiated from the current mainstream offers

and in discovering what consumers are willing to spend more money on.



14


1.8%

2.4%

-5.2%

2.6%

3.0%

Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets Discounters Drug Stores

TOTAL GERMANY – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

Slight market increase in Q4 led by Private label and promotions

New openings of large formats within Supermarkets and Hard

discounter re-designs are key drivers

TOTAL GERMANY - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


38%

10%

43%

10%

1.2%

2.7%1.2%

0.5%1.2%

1.7%

1.4%3.1%

3.1%

3.2%

-0.7% -1.0%

0.0%

-1.0%-0.7%

-0.6%

-2.6%

-0.3% -1.4%

0.5%

0.5%

1.8%1.3%

-0.5%

0.4%

1.1%

-1.2%

2.8%

1.7%

3.7%



15


TOTAL GERMANY – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL GERMANY – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

Top manufacturers underperformance is partly due to reduced product

offering and less flexibility on targeting niche consumer needs and groups

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017


Total FMCG 100.0%

Food Ambient 17.2%

Dairy 11.7%


Confectionery 10.4%


Fresh Food Selfservice 9.0%

Personal Care 6.9%

Household Care 6.9%

Tobacco 6.0%

Frozen Food 5.6%

Baby 1.6%

Pet Food 1.6%

Health Care 1.0%

1.8%

3.6%

6.4%

0.8%

2.1%

-0.7%

1.2%

1.0%

0.2%

-2.9%

1.9%

2.8%

-1.1%

4.3%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 8.0%

Top 6-10 5.1%

Top 11-30 9.4%

Top 31-100 13.7%

100+ 22.1%

Private Label 41.6%

1.8%

-1.2%

-0.2%

2.4%

0.6%

1.1%

3.2%

Price increases for Dairy products (up to 20%) caused by exploding raw

material costs have push value development

16


ITALY SNAPSHOT

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


0.91.0

1.3

1.5

1.7 1.7

-0.1

0.2

1.3

1.6

1.3

1.1

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79 81 8185 87 87

55 57 58 5865

68

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU IT

Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) GDP estimate for Q4 2017

Giovanni Fantasia

Managing Director

Italy

At a glance, Italy’s situation is positive, with GDP growth expected to be 1.4%

throughout 2018 according to the Bank of Italy. Public debt has stabilised and the

moderate rise in households’ disposable income is encouraging higher

consumption and investments. The exceptional increase in consumer confidence

in Q3 was the best increase among major EU Countries, +7pp and its positive

momentum has been maintained in Q4, reaching an index of 68. Nevertheless,

the country needs to reinforce stronger (and braver) measures.

FMCG market performance was strong compared to 2016 with volume growth

boosted by seasonal factors, with the hottest and driest summer ever and an

“upgrade” of the average shopping cart. Among FMCG products, Food is the

primary driver. Millennials and wealthy families are the trendsetters for health &

wellness products, and products with a convenience offering (e.g. ready-to-eat). In

response to these emerging needs, retailers and manufacturers are rejuvenating

their assortments and encouraging sales across different categories. Beyond

structural reforms and a rationalization of tax legislation, innovation should

underpin economic recovery. To innovate, companies must keep up with evolving

consumer needs and the changing retail landscape.

Ageing population, digital disruption and social fragmentation are all changing the

way Italians shop. What and how consumers buy does not necessarily depend on

their age or income, but rather on their "specific needs" and willingness to pay for

FMCG products. To effectively identify and target the right consumers to drive

growth, we have identified five consumer clusters:

1. Traditional mature shoppers

2. Silver - high income older shoppers who have potential to spend more

3. Price conscious – young consumers looking for efficient shopping

4. Mainstream – indulgent (i.e. leaning towards unhealthy diet) and low-income

5. Golden – high income, high spend with healthy sustainable consumption

The next step for players operating in Italy is to address each of those shoppers

group to determine tomorrow’s opportunities.



17


2.6%

2.4%

4.2%

-2.3%

3.7%

6.2%

-4.8%

Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets Convenience Discounters Drug Stores Others

TOTAL ITALY – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

Strong performance in December helped maintain Q4 growth also supported by

inflationary price dynamics

Drug stores are performing well due to faster innovation streams. Convenience

and Traditional stores (“Others”) are losing share

TOTAL ITALY - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


26%

37%

10%

17%

5%4%

0.9%

-0.3%-0.9% -1.0% -0.5%

0.7%0.9% 0.6% 1.3%

1.7%

0.4%2.1%

1.4%2.1%

-0.5%

3.1%

2.6%1.7%

2.6%

0.1%

1.2%

0.3%

1.6%

0.2%

4.0%

3.1% 3.1%

MAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17


18


Food drives FMCG growth. Italians are more willing to “invest” in healthy

and premium products. Personal care and Household care are struggling.

TOTAL ITALY – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL ITALY – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017


Total FMCG 100.0%

Packaged Food 30.7%

All Fresh 28.1%

Beverages 14.4%

Personal Care 9.9%

Home Care 7.8%

Frozen 5.4%

Pets 2.0%

Light Bazaar 1.3%

Heavy Bazaar 0.2%

Textile 0.1%

2.6%

1.5%

4.6%

4.1%

0.6%

-0.4%

5.2%

2.9%

-4.0%

-3.5%

-6.2%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 9.7%

Top 6-10 5.6%

Top 11-30 12.8%

Top 31-100 14.3%

100+ 31.8%

Private Label 25.9%

2.6%

0.9%

-2.0%

0.1%

2.3%

3.7%

4.4%

Private Label and smaller players are driving growth thanks to the

price/quality ratio they offer and increasing trust from shoppers

19


79 81 8185 87 87

9196

100 102 101 101

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU NL

ECONOMY WATCH

NETHERLANDS SNAPSHOT

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

2.4

2.82.6

3.8

3.2 3.1

-0.2

0.5

1.31.0

1.5 1.3

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) GDP estimate or Q4 2017

Pedro Lima

Managing Director

Benelux

The Dutch economy is performing well with all macroeconomic trends pointed in the

right direction. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, in 2017 the Dutch

economy saw the fastest growth seen in the past ten years. Consumer confidence

has stabilized at 101 points. 58% of Dutch consumers feel positively about the state

of their personal finances within the next 12 months, with just over half positive about

their future job prospects.

The FMCG market grew +1.9% in 2017, with relatively strong performance in the

second half of the year counterbalancing the contraction in early 2017. Price remains

the strong driver of growth, while volume sales are declining. The volume trend is in

part due to the good development of HORECA and the shift to e-commerce for

several categories. Supermarkets are showing high growth, driven primarily by price

and premium products. Drug, Perfumery and Food specialty stores are also growing.

but at a slower pace. Channels like Drug are facing more competition from e-

commerce players than Supermarkets, and Petrol is contracting due to an increase in

unmanned stores. Over 25% of Dutch consumers are now buying groceries or

personal care items online, which is a big jump from 2016 (19%). The Dutch e-

commerce market for groceries represents EUR 759 million, up 55% since last year.

Out-of-home dining and home delivery are growing exponentially, providing

increased competition to retailers. This trend is due to both the growing economy and

the growing number of millennials, with no signs of slowing down in the near future.

In 2016, the market for delivered food was approximately EUR 420 Million, and

estimates for 2017 are in the range of EUR 1.3 - 1.4 billion. The development of

additional delivery services like UberEats, Foodora, and of course Thuisbezorgd are

evidence of this emerging trend.

Looking forward, with a growing economy and consumer demand, there are

opportunities for experimenting with different price tiers as well as innovating with

premium concepts. Fresh shows great growth potential, particularly for vegetables,

fruit, and cheese. Branded produce can be a great avenue to drive sales and

influence store choice, as shoppers look to product quality when choosing where to

shop.



20


1.9%

2.2%

0.6%

-0.8%

Total FMCG Food Drug-Perfumery Petrol

TOTAL NETHERLANDS – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

Growth in FMCG largely driven by price increases rather than volume sales

Supermarkets are showing high growth, driven primarily by price and premium

products. Hard discounters (included in Food) are no longer gaining share

TOTAL NETHERLANDS - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


85%

11%5%

1.1%2.6%

1.0%

1.1% 1.1%

1.0% 1.1%2.3%

3.1% 3.2%

-2.1%

-0.8%

0.3%

-0.5%-0.7%

0.5%

-1.9%

0.9%

-1.1% -0.3%-0.9%

1.9%

1.2%

0.6%0.4%

1.6%

-0.7%

3.2%

2.0%

2.9%



21


TOTAL NETHERLANDS – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL NETHERLANDS – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

Strong growth seen from players operating in premium segments and

from smaller niche players with distinct consumer propositions

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017


Total FMCG 100.0%

Beverages 24.7%

Other Shelf Stable Food 19.5%

Personal Care 13.5%

Tobacco 12.3%

Confectionery 12.0%

Dairy 6.9%

Frozen 5.3%

Home Care 3.7%

Margarine/Butter/Fat 2.1%

1.9%

1.8%

1.2%

0.0%

-0.3%

3.6%

7.6%

1.8%

1.9%

5.6%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 17.1%

Top 6-10 7.8%

Top 11-30 14.2%

Top 31-100 16.7%

100+ 25.8%

Private Label 18.4%

1.9%

0.9%

1.7%

2.6%

1.0%

2.2%

2.7%

Strongest growth is in Dairy, with significant price increases on Milk (+20%).

Price hikes on Butter also impact the Margarine/Butter/Fat sales

22


PORTUGAL SNAPSHOT

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


1.8

2.2

2.83.0

2.5

2.1

0.8 0.8

1.51.6

1.3

1.8

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79 81 8185 87 87

6570

7482 85 84

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU PT


After a period of crisis, the economic climate is now more favorable in Portugal,

with increases in GDP and prices supported by growing tourist activity. In fact, the

confidence of Portuguese consumers has grown significantly, over the last

quarters with the highest indexes ever registered. Consumers believe they have

increasingly better employment and personal finances' prospects, recognizing that

this is a favorable time to buy what they want or need.

The balance between personal and professional life, as well as health are the

primary concerns to Portuguese consumers, who seek convenient and healthier

products, even if that means buying at a higher price. The products' quality and the

purchasing experience are also critical to success adding value to the category

and bringing additional benefits to consumers.

In 2017, FMCG grew by 4.2%, predominantly due to price increases. This reflects

a very different environment to that of 2016 where prices were stable and volume

consumption was growing at 2.6%.

The last quarter of 2017, with a dynamic Christmas and New Year's Eve period

and healthier volume consumption indicates a positive trend for the immediate

future. Brands and retailers in FMCG need to innovate and invest in creating value

in their categories, with products that even with higher prices, bring extra benefits

and make life easier for consumers.

Gustavo Nuñez

Managing Director

Iberia



23


4.2%

2.7%

4.7%

5.3%

Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets Superettes+Traditionals

TOTAL PORTUGAL – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

The growing inflationary environment compared to 2016 impacted FMCG which

grew by 4.2% in 2017

Supermarkets continue to be the most important channel, with smaller formats

growing faster than average

TOTAL PORTUGAL - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


26%

66%

8%

-0.1%

3.0%

-1.8%-0.9%

0.4% 0.6% 1.2%

2.4%2.8%

3.8%

2.6%

1.2%

3.6%1.2% 2.7%

3.4%0.3%

3.7%0.2%

2.9%

2.5%

4.2%

1.8%

0.3%

3.1%

4.0%

1.6%

6.1%

3.0%

6.7%



24


TOTAL PORTUGAL – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL PORTUGAL – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017


Total FMCG 100.0%

Grocery Products 38.3%

Dairy Products 18.0%

Personal Care 11.2%

Alcohol Drinks 10.7%

Household Care 8.1%

Non Alcohol Drinks 6.9%

Frozen Products 6.8%

4.2%

3.9%

2.3%

3.1%

7.0%

3.8%

10.6%

3.7%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 16.4%

Top 6-10 8.0%

Top 11-30 14.3%

Top 31-100 12.1%

100+ 20.1%

Private Label 29.3%

4.2%

2.7%

1.7%

4.7%

3.2%

6.8%

4.3%

Beverages had the strongest performance thanks to a very hot

summer season and new sugar tax on Non alcoholic drinks

Private Label recover growth in 2017 following retailers’ investments in

this area

25


SPAIN SNAPSHOT

Spain has undergone an economic recovery over the last few years with increasing

GDP and unemployment levels starting to decline (even though it still stands at a

high rate of 16.6%). This feeling of optimism is reflected in Spanish consumers’

increasing confidence. While Europe remains steady, Spain posted a consumer

confidence increase of two points in the last quarter reaching the highest index

score of 93 in the last ten years.

In 2018 it will be a real challenge for the FMCG industry to improve on these very

positive figures (+4% in value in 2017). Bank of Spain CPI’s predictions for 2018 is

similar to 2017 levels, which together with an ageing population makes volume

growth difficult in the coming year. It seems that tourism is going to be one of the

main drivers of growth in our market, and consequently an important opportunity for

the industry. The commercial surface in Spain has also grown moderately (1.4%) so

we are facing an increase in the profitability of square meters that can be

comparable to the pre-crisis situation.

The composition of Spanish households is changing. Spain is facing an increasingly

aging population where in over half of households (56%), the main housekeeper is

over 50 years old. In parallel, household size is also shrinking every year whereby

singles account for one in four households. These are key issues for manufacturers

and retailers to consider moving forward as they look to the emerging demands and

requirements of smaller and older households. These “new” shoppers place

increasing importance on convenience stores and convenient product formats as

consumers seek out products and services that meet their needs for smaller pack

sizes and have more limited storage space in their homes.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


3.23.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2

-0.3

0.8

2.7

2.01.9

1.6

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79 81 8185 87 87

80 77

8691 91 93

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU ES


Gustavo Nuñez

Managing Director

Iberia



26


4.0%

0.4%

4.7%

3.8%

Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets Drug Stores

TOTAL SPAIN – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

2017 closed with three months of continuous growth driven by a favorable

economic environment, improved weather conditions and growing tourism.

Supermarkets (including Discounters) are leading growth mainly

due to the performance of larger stores

TOTAL SPAIN - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


16%

79%

5%

-0.3%

1.8%

0.8% 0.4% 0.1%

-0.3%

0.0% 0.2%1.7% 2.1%

3.9%

2.1%

2.2%1.7%

3.5%3.9%

2.2%2.7%

2.5%

3.2%3.6%

4.0%

3.1%

2.1%

3.6% 3.6%

2.2%

2.9%

4.2%

5.3%



27


Categories related to a convenience offering are driving high growth in Q4

TOTAL SPAIN – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL SPAIN – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017


Total FMCG 100.0%

Packaged food 25.3%

Drinks 15.2%


Household 8.4%

Cooked meats 8.2%

Canned food 6.4%

Frozen food 5.5%

Dairy 5.3%

Milk and shakes 5.0%

Cheese 4.5%

Ready meal 4.0%

4.0%

3.7%

5.2%

2.9%

2.8%

5.4%

5.1%

5.7%

0.1%

0.5%

4.0%

11.0%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 10.9%

Top 6-10 5.5%

Top 11-30 12.0%

Top 31-100 10.0%

100+ 20.8%

Private Label 40.8%

4.0%

-0.6%

2.0%

2.4%

3.0%

8.3%

4.2%

Stable share for Private Label in 2017, thanks to the growth of some PL-

oriented retailers

28


UK SNAPSHOT

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


2.0 2.0 2.11.9

1.71.5

1.0

1.5

2.2

2.6 2.72.8

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79 81 8185 87 87

98106

102 99 99 96

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU GB

Steve Smith

Managing Director

United Kingdom & Ireland


The continued economic uncertainty around Brexit, and consumers becoming

slightly more cautious, hasn’t yet translated into a significant slowdown in UK

consumer spend. Albeit lagging behind other major European countries, the UK

economy finished 2017 with GDP growth of 1.8%.

This is good news for retailers and manufacturers, and is thanks in part to strong

consumer confidence among UK shoppers. In the last part of the year, FMCG

growth hit 4% driven in large, driven by the return of inflation, after two years of

deflation, and the continued growth of the discount channel (Aldi and Lidl) who

have focused on expanding their store footprint across the UK. FMCG volume

growth also improved in 2017 ending the year at +2.9%.

The UK enjoys a developed trade structure which brings with it the benefit of scale

and this is evident with retailers and manufacturers working closely together to

avoid passing on cost price increases to shoppers. We should remain confident

that FMCG spend will continue at current levels over the first part of 2018,

although discretionary spend will come under increasing pressure, particularly in

the non-food and out-of-home channels. With the rise in inflation, and a fall in real

incomes for many households, strategies that help shoppers manage their overall

household budgets will be key to ensure that if inflation continues, which is the

expectation of the Bank of England, shoppers don’t begin to trade down.

Private label growth hits a new high of 53% of total store value sales (including

fresh foods) and we expect the growth to continue, particularly in premium Private

label. Manufacturers will need to be mindful of this, as well as the acceleration of

the discounter market share which hit 14% of total FMCG sales. By continuing to

support the major supermarkets, brands will play a key role to sustaining category

volume growth. Finally, the industry will need to closely monitor whether shopping

behaviors are impacted when the outcomes of the Brexit negotiations emerge later

this year.



29


FMCG sales growth peaked at 4% in Q4 driven largely by inflation. This is

driving more store visits as shoppers look to make savings by shopping around

TOTAL UK - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)

1.2%

1.2%0.2%

-1.9% -1.6%-0.4%

0.5%3.0% 2.4%

1.2%

-0.7%

1.7%

0.2%

1.4%

2.2%

1.7%

-0.3%

1.0%

0.6%2.8%

0.5%

2.9%

0.4%

-0.4%

0.7%

1.3%

0.1%

4.0%

3.0%

4.0%



TOTAL UK– CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

DETAILS NOT AVAILABLE

30


TOTAL UK – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017


Total FMCG 100.0%

Fresh Food 35.2%

Impulse 11.3%

Beer, Wine & Spirits 11.2%

General Merchandise 8.8%

Tobacco 8.4%

Ambient Grocery 8.1%

Health Beauty Toiletries & Baby 7.9%

Household & Pet 5.4%

Frozen 3.7%

2.9%

4.8%

3.4%

4.7%

-1.1%

-1.8%

3.6%

0.4%

1.5%

6.2%

Health and wellness trend is driving Fresh Food growth, and as people increasingly

dine at home, growth is evident in Impulse and Beer, Wine and Spirits categories.

TOTAL UK – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

DETAILS NOT AVAILABLE

31


CONTENTS

SECTION 2

THE BIG PICTURE: EUROPE CENTRAL & EAST

Message from Roberto Pedretti and Daniel Chorbadjian………………………………........... 32

EUROPE AT A GLANCE Key economic drivers……………………………………………………………………..…..……33

Looking through Europe FMCG lens………………………………………….……… …….….. 35

COUNTRY SNAPSHOT

Belarus……….………………………………………….……………………………..……………36

Bulgaria……….………………………………………….…………………………...……………..39

Croatia……….………………………………………..….…………………….……… ….………..42

Czech Republic………………………………………….……………………….......................... 45

Estonia………………………….…………………….……………….…………..…………………48

Greece………………………………………………..…………………………...………………… 51

Hungary…………………………………………………………………………...………………… 54

Israel……………………….……………………………………………………….………………. 57

Kazakhstan……………………….……………………………………………….……………….. 60

Latvia……………………….……………………………………………………………………….. 63

Lithuania………………………………..…………….…………………………………………….. 66

Poland………………………………………………………………………………....................... 69

Romania…………………………………………………………………………........................... 72

Russia…………………………………………………………………………..…......................... 75

Serbia……………………………………………………………………………………………… 78

Slovakia……………………………………………………………………………………..……… 81

Slovenia………………………………………………………………………………………… …...84

Turkey……………………………………………………………………………….......................87

Ukraine..……………………………………………………..…………………………..................90

IN THE INDUSTRY

Retail Channel Universe Update……...………………………………………………………… 101

32


THE BIG PICTURE: EUROPE EAST/CENTRAL

Daniel Chorbadjian

Managing Director

Eastern Europe

Cluster - Emerging

Markets

Roberto Pedretti

Group Managing

Director Turkey and

Central Eastern

Europe

Welcome to the Q4 2017 edition of the European Quarter by Numbers –

Central and Eastern Europe. This quarter we add five new markets; Belarus,

Israel, Kazakhstan, Serbia and Slovenia to expand our viewpoint across 19

markets to give you a greater perspective across our vast region.

The recent editions have highlighted a number of common themes and this

quarter is no exception. As we look across the viewpoints from our market

leaders there is a common theme - although positive economic conditions

prevail, manufacturers and retailers' willingness to accept price inflation, in

many cases has not been matched by consumers’ confidence to pay more,

with volume deflation a common occurrence. It should be noted however that

even in markets that are experiencing this volume shrinkage in certain basic

categories, there are other categories that are growing in volume where

inflationary prices have been accepted and value growth has increased.

This could be seen as a sign that consumers are not only making decisions on

price points within a product group but are potentially making decisions across

product groups based on their own value equations. It is a pertinent reminder

that having a clear understanding of price sensitivity is key and that some

products may have to exercise a more conservative approach in light of

positive economic conditions.

With strong GDP growth and low unemployment figuring prominently across

our markets, there have been some external commentators observing that the

uncertainty evident outside of Eastern Europe is making the region a more

attractive area for investment and consolidation of trade. It is certainly a time of

positive business and consumer sentiment and although there have been

some specific instances in dips in consumer confidence since Q3, it rounds out

a year where this measure grew with some countries hitting record highs. This

positivity has generally translated into positive news for the FMCG industry

with all 19 markets enjoying nominal growth for the quarter rounding off a year

where the volume and value sales have been buoyant.

The challenge in 2018 will be to continue evolving and focusing on the

mechanics that are driving growth as these positive conditions will not

guarantee success for everyone. Consumers’ lives are changing in Eastern

Europe. Consumers are becoming more discerning about choice with

convenience, healthy options and premium offerings examples of areas where

consumers are increasingly willing to spend. On the whole, consumers are

feeling more positive across 2017 as economic conditions and their own

finances seem to be improving. As this sentiment is expected to continue, it

will be advisable for the industry to maintain a strong focus on how their

brands, products and services are aligned to consumers’ value equation and

ensure they deliver on consumer expectations before raising prices.

Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

GDP and Inflation reflect % change per annum to Q4 /latest available data

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)/local government sources & Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index reflects Q4 2017

EUROPE CENTRAL & EAST

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

ECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS

AROUND EUROPE

The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index measures perceptions of local job

prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer

confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of

optimism and pessimism, respectively.

Some sharp increases in concern over terrorism and health weighed

heavily on the minds of many of the markets that saw decline in

consumer confidence



Q4 2017Q4 2017 vs

Q3 2017

GDP

(annual %

growth)

Inflation

ROMANIA 90 -8 6.9 3.3

LATVIA 73 -6 4.7 2.6

BELARUS 60 -3 4.3 4.9

HUNGARY 74 -2 4.9 2.3

KAZAKHSTAN 81 -2 4.2 7.5

TURKEY 112 -2 - 11.9

SLOVAKIA 86 -1 3.4 2.0

CROATIA 73 -1 2.0 0.8

POLAND 104 -1 5.1 2.2

SLOVENIA 83 -1 6.2 1.3

RUSSIA 69 -1 2.4 2.6

GDP

(annual %

growth)

Inflation Q4 2017Q4 2017 vs

Q3 2017

5.1 2.6 CZECH REP. 104 3

2.2 14.0 UKRAINE 61 3

3.8 4.2 LITHUANIA 79 1

3.5 2.7 BULGARIA 89 1

5.3 3.8 ESTONIA 81 1

2.9 0.3 ISRAEL 103 0

2.5 2.9 SERBIA 69 0

1.8 0.6 GREECE 60 0

33


38

26 26

33 33

23

3428

47

25

38

28

52

41

23

30

3742

48

29

3732 33

2724

20

31

13

26

37

2430

4137

29

38

17

28

44

37

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU IL KZ LT LV PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UAPutting into savings New clothes

19

26

2124

33

2219

2630

16

31

37

22

3127

2528

37

12

2119

9

3

20

6 6 68

12

52

5

20

6 75

911

37

4

0

10

20

30

40

EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU IL KZ LT LV PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UAHealth Terrorism

Savings was the most popular use for spare cash after expenses

were taken care of.

WHAT ARE THE TOP 2 CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?

WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING AND INVESTING?

Type of concern

After living expenses, how is spare money spent


EUROPE CENTRAL & EAST

MARKETS AT A GLANCE


* HR = Croatia

* HR = Croatia

CONSUMER SENTIMENTS IN

EUROPE

EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU IL KZ LT LV PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UA

Health 1 0 -4 5 7 5 2 1 -1 -2 1 6 -4 -2 5 5 3 6 1 0

Terrorism -6 -5 0 -4 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -6 -4 -5 -2 -1

EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU IL KZ LT LV PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UA

Putting into savings 1 -8 -5 -3 3 -5 -3 -6 1 0 -1 4 -1 9 0 3 2 -2 12 -1

New clothes 1 -5 -7 3 1 -2 -6 -7 -1 3 1 0 -2 -3 4 -1 0 -2 7 0

34


LOOKING THROUGH EUROPE CENTRAL & EAST

FMCG LENS

FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICS

Weighted average – EUROPE GROWTH & EMERGING – 19 countries

WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?

Average volume growth Q3 2017 & Q4 2017

*BL = Belarus, HR = Croatia, RS = Serbia , SI = Slovenia

COLOUR CODING INDICATES GROWTH OR DECLINING TREND COMPARED TO AVERAGE OF Q3 & Q4 2016

Avg. volume growth decreasing versus last period

Avg. volume growth increasing versus last period

RUSSIA (+0.8%)

CZECH REP. (-0.1%)

ESTONIA (-3.7%)LATVIA (+0.4%)LITHUANIA (-2.4%)

UKRAINE (+5.7%)

ROMANIA (+3.2%)

BULGARIA (+5.3%)

TURKEY (+4.5%)

GREECE (+5.8%)

POLAND (+2.7%)

SLOVAKIA (+1.6%)

HUNGARY (+1.8%)CROATIA (0%)

BELARUS (+2.5%) KAZAKHSTAN (-4.4%)

ISRAEL (+1.8%)

SERBIA (-1.2%)

SLOVANIA (+1.9%)

2.5%4.8% 5.4%

6.5%

0.6%

2.1% 4.7%

0.5%

6.7%

3.3%

7.3%

2.0%

5.2%

3.3% 1.8% 2.2% 3.5%

12.3%

8.8%5.9%

4.9%

0.7%

-3.9%

5.9%

-0.5%

3.6% 2.1%

-4.6%

1.1%

-2.7%

4.0%

4.0%

-0.5%

1.2%2.5%

4.1%

4.5%

7.0%

8.4%9.7%

6.1%

2.6%

6.4%

1.6%

8.2%

2.6% 2.0%

4.4% 4.7%6.0%

9.3%

2.9% 3.0%

4.6%

7.5%

16.8%15.8%

BG BV CZ EE GR HR HU IL KZ LV LT PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UA

Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth

35

36


BELARUS SNAPSHOT GDP growth grew by 2.4% in Belarus for 2017 versus 2016 after a two-year

recession caused by the steep drop in oil prices. Growth is attributed to strong

industrial output, Russia’s recovery and better external trade conditions with the

restoration of oil and gas supplies. 2017 marked the lowest inflation in the history of

sovereign Belarus. For the first time, inflation fell to less than 10%, and year-to-year

CPI landed at 6.0%, accompanied by very moderate local currency devaluation.

Despite this improved situation in 2017, public debt and unreformed state

enterprises, "expensive" loans and weak support for the unemployed remain cause

for concern. Consumer confidence has increased in the back half of the year based

on consumers’ increasingly positive sentiment to job prospects and personal

finances evidenced by an increase in consumption with improved FMCG volume

sales in Q4.

Modern trade continued growing in Q4 2017, as a result of the transition from

traditional grocery stores to modern format. Retailers and manufacturers are

focusing to capitalize on this growth and therefore competition is escalating with

intensified promotional activities.

In these improving conditions, consumers are more open to trying new products,

willing to indulge in small ‘luxuries’ and trading up to more premium products. It is

key for FMCG players to target a balance of tactical wins and longer term loyalty

and brand building. Increasing discount levels and extending the periods of

promotional activities could lead to a pricing war. This represents a challenge for

brands with low price sensitivity becoming highly dependent on price and

promotions which do not necessarily translate to sales uplift. Retailers and

manufacturers should be focusing on segmenting consumer needs, understanding

the path to purchase including both bricks ‘n’ mortar and online routes while

developing a healthy mix between short-term wins and longer term equity building

for their brands.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


-3.4 -1.7

0.4 1.7 2.94.3

11.711.0

7.66.3

5.4 4.9

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79 81 8185 87 87

55 55 55 53

63 60

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU BL

Source: GDP and Inflation; local government sources

Vaios Dimoragas

Managing Director

Ukraine and Belarus



37


10.0%

9.2%

14.7%

2.3%

11.7%

2.9%

Total FMCG Hyper/Supermarket (Food Categories) Groceries Modern Trade (Food Categories)

Groceries Traditional Trade (Food Cat) Kiosks + Other Markets (Food Categories) Drug Categories

TOTAL BELARUS – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

Volume sales recovered in Q4 2017, as a result of economy stabilization and

strengthening consumer confidence . Value sales decline is reflective of lower

inflation levels

Faster growth of Groceries in Modern Trade is due to the conversion of

Traditional Trade into modern format.

Kiosks and Other Markets growth is due to price increases in this channel

TOTAL BELARUS - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


52%

31%

7%3%

7%

13.7%9.0%

14.0% 13.8%

13.4%14.9% 14.5%

9.3%6.7%

4.8%

3.1%1.0%

2.2%5.5% 4.4%

-1.1%

0.4%

-0.4%

0.2%

4.9%

16.8%

10.0%

16.2%

19.3%17.8%

13.8% 15.0%

8.9%6.9%

9.7%

MAT YA MAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17


38


Coffee growth is driven predominantly by assortment expansion and

promotional activities of main players to drive market share whilst Chocolate

growth has come from innovation/additional support of chocolate tablets

TOTAL BELARUS – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL BELARUS – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

While top 1-5 manufacturers continue to dominate the market, it is important

to watch the development of smaller manufacturers and Private Label

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017


Total FMCG 100.0%

Dairy 23.8%

Beer 22.7%

Beverages 17.2%

Chocolate 10.7%

Coffee 8.6%

Personal Care 4.8%

Snacks 4.7%

Candies 4.2%

Home Care 1.9%

Grocery 1.5%

10.0%

13.5%

4.4%

5.0%

16.5%

16.2%

3.7%

14.1%

17.7%

0.8%

30.2%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 29.1%

Top 6-10 14.0%

Top 11-30 27.3%

Top 31-100 19.2%

100+ 5.4%

Private Label 4.9%

10.0%

12.0%

1.8%

8.1%

19.7%

0.6%

9.9%

39


79

81 81

8587 87

79

84

75

85

8889

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU BG

3.0

4.3

3.63.9 3.8

3.5

-0.3 -0.3

1.7

2.3

1.6

2.7

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



BULGARIA SNAPSHOT Bulgaria’s economic landscape continues to be in a very positive position with GDP

above 3% growth for the seventh consecutive quarter coinciding with a further drop in

unemployment and double digit wage growth. Consumer optimism reflects this

situation as well as growth in the FMCG market which displayed the highest value

growth in several years at 8.4% in Q4 2017.

Bigger format stores continue to lead the way, assisted by the opening of around 20

new outlets from major supermarket and drug store chains. Interestingly, Traditional

trade is starting to recover in Q4 boosted by excellent performance across its

destination categories. The majority of super categories are performing well,

showcasing that shoppers are allocating part of the additional disposal income in

FMCG purchases or they are trading up to more premium products (like in drug

categories).

Promotion continues to be a key dynamic at play across the Bulgarian retail

landscape. Almost half of Modern Trade value sales (49.1%) were sold on promotion

in Q4 2017. This promotional dependence is evident across many super categories

excluding baby food with up to a third of sales on promotion for many categories. If we

also consider the number of retailers engaged in EDLP activities at the beginning of

Q4 and the same retailers also increased the amount of promotions, it should come as

no surprise we are seeing a rise in volume consumption .

Looking forward, we expect the market to remain strong despite the lack of significant

expansion from retailers in the foreseeable future. Economists however have raised

concern that if wages keep rising at the same rate and no investments are made to

boost productivity, then the likely result is further inflation which may compromise

economic growth. Within FMCG, the challenge will be how to optimize pricing and

promotional strategies to drive long term category growth instead of short term uplifts.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


Source EIU and local government sources

Svyatoslava Svyst

Managing Director

Bulgaria / RV Leader

Eastern Europe



40


6.7%

9.9%

9.2%

3.9%

2.0%

10.5%

Total FMCG Supermarkets/Hypermarkets Extra Large Food Stores

Large Food Stores Traditional Trade Drug Stores

TOTAL BULGARIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

Strong performance in FMCG as consumers leverage additional

disposable income in a heavily promoted environment

Bigger formats lead the way due to new store openings and

increase in promotions. Signs of recovery from Traditional Trade.

TOTAL BULGARIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


41%

13%

19%

24%

4%

1.8%2.4%

1.8% 1.4%1.8%

1.4% 0.8%

2.2% 3.0%2.5%

0.8%

4.4%

0.5%

0.9%

1.0%2.7% 3.2%

3.8%

4.7% 5.9%

2.6%

6.7%

2.3%2.3%

2.8%

4.1% 4.0%

5.9%

7.8%

8.4%



41


Salty Snacks are performing above market growth helped by

aggressive promotional activity

TOTAL BULGARIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL BULGARIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

Both leading and challenger manufacturers show strong growth.

Despite new launches and increased communication, Private Label

trails overall growth.


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 17.0%

Top 6-10 11.1%

Top 11-30 20.5%

Top 31-100 22.6%

100+ 25.8%

Private Label 3.1%

6.7%

7.0%

2.8%

8.1%

10.6%

4.4%

3.6%

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017


Total FMCG 100.0%

Chilled Products 25.2%


Confectionery 15.1%


Personal Care 7.2%

Household 6.9%

Salty Snacks 5.1%

Hot Beverages 4.4%

Shelf Stable Food 3.0%

Baby Categories 1.3%

Petfood 1.2%

6.7%

7.0%

7.5%

6.5%

5.5%

5.2%

3.5%

11.8%

7.7%

6.1%

3.6%

18.0%

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

42


CROATIA SNAPSHOT

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH

Source: DZS – Croatian Bureau of Statistics.

Andrey

Dvoychenkov

Group Managing

Director Adriatic

Region

79 81 8185 87 87

6673

69 7074 73

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU HR

3.13.5

2.63.0

3.3

2.0

-1.5

-0.5 -0.4

0.1

-0.5

0.8

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017





Although Croatia’s macroeconomic conditions continued to be predominantly positive

across 2017, the Agrokor crisis still hangs heavily over business investment. Croatia’s credit

rating is improving but it has been tempered by these recent challenges. Croatian

consumers are increasingly optimistic across 2017 with almost half believing their personal

financial outlook is excellent or good in the coming twelve months.

In FMCG however Q4 2017 bought a decline in volume growth attributed to negative

performance of Dairy products, Confectionery and Raw meat/meat products. The impact of

volume erosion was offset slightly by price increases in almost all Food categories.

The retail landscape in 2017 was quite conservative from a promotional perspective, with a

lack of sharp price points and lower discount frequency which fueled climbing prices across

the majority of Food categories. The performance of Hypermarkets and Discounters across

Modern Trade have outpaced the market. Discounters are continuing to test new store

concepts leaning towards more supermarket formats that focus on promoting branded

products whilst at the same time offering “consumer-pleasing” premium private label

offerings. Supermarkets, which account for one third of the market, are struggling with their

performance driven by declines in their largest category, Fresh meat as a result of higher

costs and less promotional activity. Positive value growth in Beer, Cheese, Mineral water,

Coffee and Yoghurts have not been able to compensate for these losses in the Supermarket

channel.

The Top 20 manufacturers (excluding Private Label) account for 43% of total FMCG and are

just outpacing the total industry, mainly driven by the Top 5 manufacturers’ performance.

Among the top 20, almost 60% of the sales belong to local manufacturers which are growing

at a higher rate. Local manufacturers have been more flexible in adjusting their strategy

during the Agrokor crisis which resulted in better performance during 2017 compared to the

market average. In 2018, all economical eyes will be directed to the outcome of the Agrokor

financial settlement, which will have a big effect on the overall economical and investment

environment. We can further expect strengthening of Discounters as well as market

concentration. But ultimately, manufacturers and retailers need to focus on the key decision

makers - the shoppers who will still pursue an efficient shopping experience seeking good

value for money.

43


2.1%

5.3%

-0.9%

1.0%

-5.5%

9.9%

Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets

Traditional trade** Kiosks/Tobacconists Discounters

TOTAL CROATIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

Inflation drives the industry performance with minimal promotional

activity leveraged to drive consumption

Hypermarkets and Discounters are outpacing market growth with a

focus on premium Private Label and branded promotions

TOTAL CROATIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)

VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4 2017

20%

32%

36%

1%11%

*bi-monthly databases - periods shown are quadrimesters (periods of 4 monthhs)

**Drugstores channel is included in Large groceries (part of Traditional trade)

. .

FMCG excludes Tobacco/Cigarettes

-1.4%

2.5%

0.5% 0.1%

-2.6%

-1.1%

0.2%

2.4%

2.6%2.1%

3.5%

-0.4%

1.8%

3.2%

4.3%

1.7% 0.9%

-1.2%

0.4%

-0.5%

2.1% 2.1%2.3%

3.3%

1.7%

0.6%1.1% 1.2%

3.0%

1.6%



44


Beverages have been enjoying strong growth due to a hot

Summer season

TOTAL CROATIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL CROATIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

Top 5 players and Private Label accounts for 80% of the total FMCG

growth


Total FMCG 100.0%

Beverages 26.4%

Meat and Meat Products 16.4%


Confectionery 10.7%

Personal Care 10.1%

Packed Food 8.4%

Household Care 4.6%

Frozen Food 4.1%

Salted Snacks 2.8%

Baby Food 0.8%

2.1%

6.0%

-1.1%

5.7%

-2.1%

-0.6%

0.9%

-1.0%

4.0%

0.4%

-1.3%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 18.5%

Top 6-10 11.2%

Top 11-30 20.7%

Top 31-100 14.4%

100+ 18.0%

Private Label 17.2%

2.1%

3.9%

2.5%

0.2%

0.4%

-0.2%

6.2%

MAT Q4 2017 MAT Q4 2017

FMCG: excluding Tobacco

Total FMCG growth is different for Manufacturer Performance at 2.8% as *Raw meat Refrigerated category was not included in the total

.

MAT Q4 2017 MAT Q4 2017

45


79 81 8185 87 87

98 99103 101 101 104

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU CZ

CZECH REPUBLIC SNAPSHOT 2017 was a great year for the Czech economy with Q4 GDP growth increasing to

5.1%, the best quarter in the year, resulting in annual growth of 4.5%. Whilst

unemployment reached historic low levels, manufacturers and retailers are cautious

as low unemployment can have the effect of pushing up wages and costs. However

it is expected that price inflation will not exceed 2% in 2018 and GDP forecasts

range between 3 and 4%. Consumer sentiment reflects the positive economic

environment with increasing optimism across all key measures of job prospects,

personal finances outlook and now being a good time to buy.

2017 was also a year of solid value growth for FMCG. After years of marginal

inflation, price increased between 3 to 6 % throughout the year, while volume

remained flat. This price inflation was driven in many instances by consumers

trading up to more premium products as well as increasing prices in Food rather

than Drug categories. One of the most sensitive segments was Dairy with a peak in

Q3 due to increased costs in products like Butter.

Private labels did not move in these conditions and kept a flat share in the Czech

market. They will potentially need to adjust their strategy to reflect a more positive

consumer environment. Larger manufacturers currently appear to have a more

internal focus with corporate restructuring, while smaller manufacturers appear to

be more flexible towards the market and consumers.

High consumer confidence in light of increasing wages translates to a consumer

environment more open to premium offerings and price points. It is essential in

times of increasing costs (both labor costs and many commodities) to focus on

profitability by understanding consumers’ spending priorities. With this in mind,

2018 will be a year to focus on smart promotional and pricing optimization based on

a thorough knowledge on consumer requirements and a solid understanding of the

retail and market environment.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Q4 GDP local government source

1.8 1.8

3.0

4.75.0 5.1

0.5

1.5

2.42.2

2.5 2.6

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



Karel Tyra Managing Director,

Czech Republic



46


4.8%

2.5%

7.6%

8.1%

2.4%

7.8%

Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets Discounters Traditional Trade Drugstores

TOTAL CZECH REPUBLIC – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

TOTAL CZECH REPUBLIC - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


Record growth in Q4 driven by increasing prices and consumers

switching to more premium segments and products.

Drug stores maintain strong performance while Hypermarkets are

losing to more convenient shopping formats

40%

17%

21%

14%

8%

-0.3%

4.9%

-0.8% -1.1% -0.4%

1.2%

3.4%4.7%

6.1%

5.4%

2.7%

-0.1%

2.3%3.0% 2.3%

2.9%

-0.7%

0.4%

-0.9%

0.7%

2.4%

4.8%

1.5%1.9% 1.9%

4.0%

2.7%

5.1%5.2%

6.1%



47


Despite big manufacturers continued growth, smaller players are on a

faster trajectory given flexibility to respond to consumer needs

Significant price increases in Dairy are driving growth

TOTAL CZECH REPUBLIC – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL CZECH REPUBLIC – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG


Total FMCG 100.0%

Dairy 19.0%

Beverages Alcohol 16.7%

Sweets & Treats 14.5%


Culinary - Shelf Stable 10.0%

Beverages Non Alco 8.6%

Beverages Hot 4.2%

Home Care excl. Laundry 3.2%

Home Care - Laundry 2.3%

Pet Care 2.3%

Infant Care 2.1%

Culinary - Frozen 1.9%

Baking - Shelf Stable 1.6%

Frozen 1.4%

Culinary - Refridgerated 0.2%

4.8%

6.5%

6.6%

5.2%

4.8%

2.9%

5.0%

1.3%

4.2%

1.3%

3.0%

0.7%

4.4%

5.9%

3.8%

5.9%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 16.2%

Top 6-10 8.1%

Top 11-30 17.9%

Top 31-100 20.8%

100+ 18.2%

Private Label 18.9%

4.8%

2.8%

2.4%

5.0%

7.2%

6.2%

3.9%

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

48


ESTONIA SNAPSHOT Estonia’s economy continued to grow with GDP reaching a high of 5.3% for Q4

2017 supported by growth in private consumption, declining unemployment and

increased wages. At the same time, inflation also increased at +3.8% in Q4

2017 with increasing prices expected to impact consumer’s choices and

reluctance toward spending. While consumers are increasingly optimistic

across 2017 compared to 2016, this is driven by positive sentiment to job

prospects rather than consumers believing now is a good time to buy.

Despite strong economic performance, FMCG market consumption is slowing

down. Negative volume consumption remains the key challenge driven by

inflation. Alcoholic categories which contribute 18.3% of value share to FMCG

was a major contributor to the volume erosion across 2017 with a decline of

4.2%. Although Private Label still captures only 7.9% of value share (across

total FMCG), its growth of +5.5% (almost double the industry) indicates

shopper’s willingness to try alternatives to branded products.

Store expansion has driven the performance of large Supermarkets with growth

at 10% for 2017. Consumer’s evolving need for convenience and proximity has

driven the growth of Convenience/Petrol stations by +6.9% and Drug stores

/Pharmacies by +5.9%

Accelerated FMCG volume decline throughout 2017 poses a real challenge for

market players. It will be critical for manufacturers and retailers to ensure trade

spend is optimized as well as a focus on genuine innovation to guarantee

continuous growth in 2018. The positive consumer environment coupled with

price inflation and volume erosion suggests that there are opportunities for

manufacturers and retailers to optimize price points that resonate with

consumers and guarantee profitable sales lift.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


Source: OECD

2.5

3.2

3.9

5.3

4.5

5.3

0.41.3

3.0 3.1

3.7 3.8

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79 81 8185 87 87

70

84

72

83 81 81

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU EE

Ilona Lepp

Managing Director

Baltics


Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen

49


2.8%

-0.4%

10.0%

0.2%

-5.8%

6.9%

5.9%


Small Supermarkets/Discounters Superettes Conveniences/Petrol Stations

Drug Stores+Pharmacies

TOTAL ESTONIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

Peaking inflation elevates FMCG value, however accelerating

volume declines remain the key market challenge

Due to new openings, large supermarkets are thriving and have

reached double digit growth

TOTAL ESTONIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


24%

33%

31%

8% 1%2%

2.1% 6.1% 0.7%1.2%

2.8%

3.4%

4.8%5.7%

6.9% 6.5%

-0.2%-3.3%

2.0%-0.1% -1.5%

-0.6%-2.4% -2.7%

-3.8% -3.9%

1.9%2.8% 2.6%

1.1% 1.3%

2.8% 2.5% 3.0% 3.1%2.6%



50


Domestic Alcohol sales have decreased due to alcohol trade on

Latvian border driven by increase of excise tax

TOTAL ESTONIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL ESTONIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

After several years of deflation and flat FMCG prices, inflation has

returned to the market. Large companies are capitalising on strength in

negotiation power for price increase ahead of smaller companies


Total FMCG 100.0%

Chilled and Frozen products 38.9%



Personal Care 7.5%

Confectionery 6.4%


Household products 4.0%

Hot Beverages 3.4%

Snacks 3.2%

Pet Care 2.2%

Baby Food 0.8%

2.8%

7.2%

-4.2%

1.2%

0.9%

1.9%

2.6%

2.1%

2.5%

7.1%

2.3%

7.4%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 23.0%

Top 6-10 11.8%

Top 11-30 22.1%

Top 31-100 16.9%

100+ 18.3%

Private Label 7.9%

2.8%

3.3%

4.9%

1.7%

1.9%

2.0%

5.5%

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

51


1.2

-0.9

0.4

1.6

1.3

1.8

0.1 0.3

1.51.4

0.80.6

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



GREECE SNAPSHOT Since the beginning of 2017, the Greek economy has started to show signs

of recovery with many macroeconomic indexes, such as GDP, inflation and

unemployment presenting improved trends. Greek consumers continue to be

more optimistic in the later half of 2017 compared to early 2017 and 2016

levels but significantly below European averages.

This wider upturn in the market is also evident in the FMCG market, where

demand has increased and at the same time price inflation has started to

emerge. The reactivation of the ex-Marinopoulos stores seem to have

boosted overall consumption and the Hypermarket format has benefited

displaying double-digit growth, 15.1% versus Q4 2016.

Within FMCG, there are several super groups that present positive trends,

among which are Confectionery and Beverage categories, both Non-

alcoholic and Alcoholic (5.7% and 3.5% respectively), of which a big part of

this growth is linked to increased taxation.

While FMCG is growing by 2% overall, it is worth pointing out that the Top 5

suppliers in the Greek market suffered share losses, whereas smaller and

local players managed to gain share in many categories, predominantly

through innovation, locality claims and competitive pricing.

Even though 2017 has been a year of marginal recovery for the Greek

economy and market, there is little base for confident predictions for the

future with a sense of instability at play in the political environment, which

has added a cautiousness to consumers’ spending.


Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

79 81 8185 87 87

5256

53 5260 60

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU GR

Vicky Grigoriadou

Managing Director

Greece



52


2.0%

15.1%

1.0%

1.5%

-1.7%

Total FMCG Hypermarkets Large Supermarkets Small Supermarkets Superettes

TOTAL GREECE – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

The re-activation of the ex-Marinopoulos stores especially after Q2

seems to have boosted consumption

The re-activation of ex-Marinopoulos stores is driving the strong

performance of Hypermarkets, increasing the store count in this channel

TOTAL GREECE - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


10%

39%36%

15%

3.1%

-0.4%

5.4% 4.5% 2.5%

-0.3%

-0.6%

-0.5%-0.8%

0.6%

-9.8%

2.3%

-12.2% -15.3%-8.7%

-2.6%

-4.8%

2.4%5.8% 5.9%

-6.7%

2.0%

6.8%

-10.7%

-6.2%

-2.9%

-5.4%

1.9%

5.0%6.4%



53


Beverages and Confectionery categories are performing well however

Health & Beauty value is in decline due to aggressive promotions

TOTAL GREECE – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL GREECE – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

Smaller and more flexible players are putting MNCs under pressure with

their ability to respond more quickly to changing market conditions


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 21.7%

Top 6-10 10.0%

Top 11-30 21.3%

31+ 31.8%

Private Label 15.2%

2.0%

-1.3%

0.5%

1.7%

5.7%

0.6%

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017


Total FMCG 100.0%

Dairy & Refrigerator Cat. 23.6%

Grocery 23.1%

Non Alcoholic Drinks 12.1%


Confectionery 9.0%


Household 6.2%

Detergents 4.4%

Paper Products 3.4%

2.0%

1.0%

2.4%

5.7%

-1.2%

5.0%

3.5%

0.4%

0.0%

-1.6%

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

54


HUNGARY SNAPSHOT

FMCG performance in Hungary soared by 8.2% in Q4 2017 to set a record

across recent years with the full year closing at 5.9% growth compared to a

more moderate increase in 2016 (2.8%). All retail channels increased faster in

Q4 than Q3, however Discounters and Drug Stores remain the main drivers.

Consumers’ emerging need for an enjoyable shopper experience, convenience

and proximity are driving this trend supported by retailers’ low prices, strong

advertising presence and new store openings.

Super categories are seeing this healthy growth momentum across the board

with even the biggest categories outpacing average growth. Inflation remains

stable around 2% which is good news for consumers. Food and petrol inflation

may accelerate overall price increases in the second half of 2018 but inflation is

likely to stay below 3% in mid to longer term.

External and internal economic conditions are stable supported by rising

consumer optimism in 2017 across all measures of job prospects, outlook in

personal finances and a good time to buy. However, increasing salaries and

low unemployment rates create a challenging labor market environment for

manufacturers, retailers and marketers alike in terms of talent attraction and

retention - a major pressing issue for the year ahead. When it comes to growth

opportunities, innovation, new products and added value to existing products

will be key.

Nonetheless, with the Hungarian economy having reached its expected growth

potential of 4%, the upcoming period is crucial for all FMCG market players.

Those who act in a smart and bold manner in the coming months will be well

placed in the upcoming years.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) OECD

2.3 2.1

3.93.7

4.1

4.9

0.01.3

2.6

2.12.4 2.3

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79 81 8185 87 87

5764 64

7076 74

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU HU

Kateryna

Edelshtein

Hungary Market

Leader Buy & Watch



55


5.9%

3.1%

4.3%

12.9%

2.8%

9.6%

4.1%

Total FMCG Hypermarkets Large Organized Discounters

Small Organized Drug Stores Independent Stores

TOTAL HUNGARY – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

Both Food and Drug markets contributed to the value growth. Five out of

the top ten Food categories grew by double-digit in Q4 versus last year

All channels experience improved momentum in Q4 vs Q3

experiencing faster growth with the exception of Independent stores

TOTAL HUNGARY - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS OFFLINE

(weighted average)


26%

15%

23%

17%

7%

12%

1.2%

4.4%

1.4% 0.8% 0.8% 1.4%2.1%

2.8%

5.1%

4.7%1.6%

1.5%

0.1%1.9% 1.6%

2.9%1.3%

3.6%

0.1%

3.6%

2.8%

5.9%

1.5%

2.8%2.3%

4.3%

3.4%

6.4%

5.3%

8.2%



56


Growth is evenly balanced across manufacturer tiers

TOTAL HUNGARY – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

Private Label outpaces branded products in both Food and Drug categories

Total FMCG includes Private label but Private label is not included in manufacturer tiers


Total FMCG 100.0%


Processed Meat 12.9%



Personal Care 8.9%

Dry Grocery 8.4%

Cleaning / Household 5.9%

Confectionery 5.5%

Hot Beverages 3.7%

Frozen Foods 3.6%

Snacks 3.0%

Household Paper 2.9%

Petfood 2.8%

Biscuits/Wafers 2.7%

Breakfast 2.0%

Baby Care 1.3%

5.9%

7.4%

6.9%

8.4%

5.7%

5.7%

1.9%

3.0%

5.0%

3.7%

4.5%

8.1%

4.4%

9.9%

4.3%

7.7%

5.0%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 20.2%

Top 6-10 11.7%

Top 11-30 20.9%

Top 31-100 23.0%

100+ 24.4%

5.9%

4.1%

4.5%

5.8%

5.1%

5.4%

TOTAL HUNGARY – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

57


79 81 8185 87 87

93 95100 102 102 103

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU IL

ISRAEL SNAPSHOT

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


Source OECD & Economic Intelligence Unit

4.54.7

3.8

3.2 3.22.9

-0.6 -0.3

0.5 0.4

-0.2

0.3

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



Offer Levy

Managing Director Israel

The Israeli economy saw relatively consistent growth across 2017 with impressive

growth of 3.3% (annual rate) in 2017 (comparing to 2016) setting the economy in good

stead for 2018. Exports (excluding start-up companies and diamonds) grew at an

accelerated rate of 7.7%, led by exports of services, especially tourism and high-tech.

Private consumption continues to expand particularly among lower income households

due to ongoing improvements in the labor market, the availability of cheap credit, and

lowering taxes on consumption. Throughout 2017, Israeli consumers have maintained

confidence about job prospects, future personal finances and being the right time to buy

supported by low inflation.

Despite positive economic conditions, the FMCG industry has seen marginal value

growth, driven predominantly by volume consumption. Recent government legislation

into food labeling introduced in November has influenced food trends. Food products

high in sugar, fat and sodium were to adhere to strict labeling changes however a

month before its implementation date, the legislation was postponed for two years.

Despite the postponement, the surrounding buzz has increased consumer awareness

towards health with healthier and fresh products experiencing new growth. However,

conversely indulgent categories also performed well in different categories from

different branches. The strengthening of the premium segment is seen both inside the

store and out of home, as consumers seek more value-added experiences.

Like many markets around the world, the digital landscape is transforming Israel’s retail

environment at a rapid pace. This is evident in Israel with four leading retailers

launching online shopping websites throughout 2017. As the home of many tech start

ups, Israel consumers are becoming early adopters of new technology trends, so it is

vital to ensure retailers and manufacturers are keeping up with the pace.

Looking forward, the recent labeling legislation is just a sign of growing awareness and

importance of health trends and manufacturers need to be thinking and planning ahead

to ensure their portfolio will fit with consumers evolving health needs. In a low

inflationary environment, Israel consumers are prepared to pay more for premium

products, as long as the value is justified with additional consumer benefits.



58


0.8%

2.3%

-0.7%

6.5%

-3.0%

Total FMCG Hypermarkets And Discounters Supermarket Convenience Stores Private Minimarkets

TOTAL ISRAEL – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

FMCG growth has picked up in Q4 coming from the periphery regions and not

from the Centre region which contributes half of the FMCG sales

Discounters are growing in Food and Home Care due to a better price offering

while Convenience stores give a comfortable, on the go shopping experience

TOTAL ISRAEL - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


59%24%

2%

15%

-0.1%-0.9%

1.9%

-3.8%

0.1%

-3.3% -2.0% -1.3%

-2.4%

0.5%

-1.5%

1.8%

-6.3%

4.5%

0.0% 0.3%

2.6% 2.3%1.6%

2.1%

-1.6%

0.8%

-4.4%

0.8%0.2%

-2.9%

0.5%1.0%

-0.7%

2.6%



59


The Food super category is showing stronger growth driven by

growing health trend and focus on fresh and healthy food

TOTAL ISRAEL – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL ISRAEL – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

Small manufacturers and PL are growing at the expense of

major manufacturers, mainly in competitive Food categories.

In many categories, PL growth comes from new product launches

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017


Total FMCG 100.0%

Food 76.2%

Beverage 11.4%

Personal Care 6.2%

Home Care 6.2%

0.8%

1.2%

-0.7%

-1.3%

0.7%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 35.6%

Top 6-10 8.8%

Top 11-30 11.8%

Top 31-100 9.9%

100+ 28.1%

Private Label 5.8%

0.8%

-1.5%

-1.1%

1.7%

1.1%

2.5%

8.8%

60


KAZAKHSTAN SNAPSHOT

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


Source Local government source. Q4 forecast

1.5 2.5 3.1

5.34.2 4.2

16.2

11.7

7.7 7.5 7.1 7.5

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79

81 81

85

87 87

77

81

7879

83

81

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU KZ

Ilona Lepp

Managing Director

Baltics



Kazakhstan’s macro economy is improving with GDP projected to be 4.2% in Q4

2017 and inflation levels across 2017 almost half those seen in 2016. Moreover,

growth and stabilization of crude oil prices in 2017 has resulted in better exchange

rates and conditions for international trade. However the devaluation of the tenge

has dramatically affected prices for consumer goods, utilities, clothing, property and

others.

Official government statistics report average nominal salary increases have grown

by 5% compared to last year and total retail sales are up 10% in 2017 compared to

2016. This inconsistency between increased spend versus wage levels

demonstrates the increasing popularity of small fast loans and credit card debt

especially among low income households. Consumers however are increasingly

optimistic driven by positive sentiment towards future job prospects.

Nielsen Measured FMCG demonstrates almost 5% value growth compared to 2016

largely driven by Tobacco and Beer categories. 60% of shoppers state they face

budget limitations when shopping. Given the current economic situation and price

increases seen in Kazakhstan, almost 38% of shoppers today are looking for

promotions (compared to 25% in 2016). Some categories already are becoming

reliant on promotions, especially in the Non-food segment. Despite the growth of

promo-oriented shoppers, a similar percentage of shoppers claim the store

environment and customer service is important when shopping.

Overall, with stabilized crude oil prices and exchange rates, 2018 is expected to

have a positive impact on the economy which will flow onto the retail environment.

Moreover, with the end of EXPO 2017 project ,there is an expectation that in 2018

the government will be able to spend more of its budget on salary increases for

government workers (doctors, teachers etc). that should have a positive effect on

consumer spending. In addition, the growing popularity of credit card and small

loans represents an opportunity for all retailers to leverage such services. It has

already shown great results in apparel business even for low price brands.

61


4.4%

5.1%

2.2%

-4.9%

-6.3%

-5.9%

3.2%

Total FMCG Supermarkets Open markets Kiosks & Pavilions Pharmacies Perfumeries Others

TOTAL KAZAKHSTAN – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

FMCG market is driven by inflationary price pressures with volume

consumption declining throughout 2017

Stronger performance of Large stores is a result of evolving

modern trade development in Kazakhstan

TOTAL KAZAKHSTAN - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


90%

3%

3%1%1%

3%

13.6% 8.5%9.2% 14.8%

16.3%

13.8%

11.0%

7.9%6.5%

6.2%

-0.2% -4.1%-4.5%

2.2%3.6%

-0.9% -2.7%-4.5%

-3.9% -4.1%

13.3%

4.4% 4.7%

17.0%

19.8%

12.9%

8.3%

3.4%2.7% 2.0%



62



Total FMCG 100.0%

Tobacco 28.3%

Beverages 23.4%

Dairy 12.3%

Personal Care 9.8%

Food 8.9%

Confectionery 7.1%

Alcohol 6.4%

Home Care 2.3%

Baby Food 1.1%

Pet Food 0.3%

Baby Care 0.1%

4.4%

5.6%

3.0%

9.3%

1.1%

2.4%

-0.9%

9.3%

5.3%

-0.4%

23.2%

6.9%

Strong performance of Dairy is driven by Fresh Refrigerated Milk and

Alcohol with end of year accounting for 20-30% of their annual sales in Q4

TOTAL KAZAKHSTAN – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL KAZAKHSTAN – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

Local manufacturer have seen stronger performance in some

categories due to lower price (especially in milk products)

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 34.3%

Top 6-10 12.4%

Top 11-30 25.2%

Top 31-100 18.7%

100+ 9.4%

4.4%

5.8%

10.4%

0.2%

8.4%

-3.8%

63


LATVIA SNAPSHOT After hitting a peak of 6.2% growth in Q3 2017, the Latvian economy continues to

thrive with 4.7% growth in Q4 2017. Rising wages and the low unemployment is

stimulating household spending and the growth of retail sales while inflation is

slowing down from 3.1% at Q2 to rest at 2.6% at the end of 2017. Positive

momentum is also expected from increased demand of Latvian production and

export. Consumer optimism dipped slightly in Q4 2017 but overall remains higher

than the dip seen at the same time last year.

The FMCG market is witnessing positive development as nominal value growth

reached 4.4% in Q4 2017 versus same period last year with 1.1% increase in

volume. The slowdown in unit value growth is reflective of overall inflation declines

seen throughout the years with some softening in prices which is helping to drive

consumption.

Small Supermarkets / Discounters show strong performance with 5.1% growth

while Hypermarkets/Large supermarkets/ Drug stores which account for almost

half of the market (47% of share) grew by +3.6% behind industry levels.

Consumers evolving needs for convenience products boosted the performance of

Snacks (8.9%), Chilled and Frozen food (8.1%), Baby food (7.9%), Pet care

(6.8%) and Confectionery (5.4%) within 2017. Private Label, which accounts for

more than 10% of the market show no signs of slowdown, growing ahead of the

industry at 6.2%.

The Latvian market is enjoying growth and all indicators point toward continuing

prosperity and development in 2018. With stability in the market, retailers and

manufacturers should use this time to search for the most effective ways to

leverage trade spend and stimulate consumer spending with innovation.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


0.6

2.7

4.2

4.9

6.2

4.7

0.21.5

3.2 3.1 2.92.6

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79 81 8185 87 87

75 7469

78 7873

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU LV

Ilona Lepp

Managing Director

Baltics

Source: OECD The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence


64


4.5%

3.6%

5.1%

4.2%

6.7%

13.8%

Total FMCG Hypermarket/Large Supermarkets+Drugstores

Small Supermarkets/Discounters Superettes

Conveniences/Petrol Stations Pharmacies

TOTAL LATVIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

FMCG is enjoying positive momentum driven predominantly by

inflationary prices with volume consumption improving in Q4

Channels are benefiting across the board indicating shoppers

inclination to larger / everyday shopping missions

TOTAL LATVIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


47%

37%

15%3%1%

1.3%

4.3%

1.9%

0.6%

1.8%2.5%

4.4% 4.6% 4.2%

3.3%

1.2%

0.3%

0.9%

1.9%0.5%

0.3%

-0.3%

0.8%

0.1%1.1%

2.6%

4.5%

2.8%2.6%

2.3%

2.9%

4.1%

5.4%

4.2%4.4%



65


Changing consumer habits towards convenience boosts many categories

including Snacks, Chilled and Frozen food, Baby food, Pet care and

Confectionery categories.

TOTAL LATVIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL LATVIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

Smaller and more flexible players are thriving and putting bigger companies

under pressure


Total FMCG 100.0%




Personal Care 8.3%


Confectionery 6.4%


Hot Beverages 4.2%

Snacks 3.3%

Pet Care 2.1%

Baby Food 0.9%

4.5%

8.1%

1.2%

1.8%

3.3%

2.8%

5.4%

2.1%

1.7%

8.9%

6.8%

7.9%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 18.4%

Top 6-10 9.2%

Top 11-30 19.2%

Top 31-100 21.2%

100+ 21.8%

Private Label 10.2%

4.5%

2.2%

1.7%

4.1%

7.0%

5.0%

6.2%

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

66


LITHUANIA SNAPSHOT In the final quarter of 2017, the Lithuanian economy grew by +3.8% ending a

year of consistent performance. Although rising inflation is slowing consumer

spending, we have witnessed one of the fastest periods of wage growth which

points to an optimistic outlook on household consumption. This is evident by

increasing consumer optimism, up five points in Q4 2017 compared to same time

year ago. A positive international trade environment and a boost in demand of

Lithuanian production and export related sectors are expected to have positive

knock-on effects.

FMCG saw signs of recovery in Q3 2017, which stabilised in Q4 with 4.7%

nominal value growth. Market development remains driven by inflationary price

factors and premium tier spending whilst volume continues to be down on last

year.

New openings and shifting shoppers’ preference in channels saw the decline of

Hypermarkets by -3.2% while large and small Supermarkets grew respectively by

6.1% and 2.8% in 2017. Convenience/petrol stations and pharmacies channels

continue to thrive with the respective growth by 8.2% and 10% in 2017.

The Lithuanian market is enjoying positive momentum; however accelerating

inflation became one of the key concerns which is affecting internal consumption.

As consumers continue to seek the best value proposition, it is important for

retailers and manufactures to understand the price sensitivity of their offers. This

will be critical to ensure maximum effectiveness in trade spending and targeted

promotions and ensure profitable growth enables reinvestment in innovations for

long term success.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


2.2

3.2

4.0 4.1

3.63.8

0.7

1.2

2.8

3.5

4.44.2

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79

81 81

8587 87

73

76

74 73

7779

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU LT

Ilona Lepp

Managing Director

Baltics



Source: OECD

67


2.1%

-3.2%

6.1%

2.8%

-0.3%

8.2%

3.5%

10.0%


Small Supermarkets/Discounters Superettes Conveniences/Petrol Stations

Drug Stores Pharmacies

TOTAL LITHUANIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

Although the Lithuanian market is still heavily driven by inflationary

price factors, volume declines are stabilizing more recently

Hypermarkets remain challenged by changing shopper preference, while

new openings boost performance of large Supermarkets

TOTAL LITHUANIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


22%

24%39%

8%

1%4%

2%

2.2%6.7%

3.3%1.2% 2.4%

2.2%4.3%

7.0%7.1% 7.3%

-2.1%-4.6%

4.0%

-0.7%

-6.0% -5.0%-7.8%

-4.6%

-2.5% -2.7%

0.1%2.1%

7.3%

0.6%

-3.5%-2.8%

-3.4%

2.5%

4.6% 4.7%



68


Majority of categories are growing in value with rising prices but

constant promotions in Household products are not always

effective in encouraging shoppers to buy more

TOTAL LITHUANIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL LITHUANIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

Private Label continues to put pressure on all manufacturers as

consumers seek out value in an environment of rising prices


Total FMCG 100.0%




Personal Care 10.3%


Confectionery 5.8%

Hot Beverages 4.4%


Snacks 3.1%

Pet Care 1.8%

Baby Food 0.7%

2.1%

3.0%

2.2%

-2.7%

2.8%

3.8%

2.0%

2.3%

-0.8%

7.4%

3.9%

0.6%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 17.6%

Top 6-10 9.0%

Top 11-30 21.5%

Top 31-100 22.5%

100+ 19.6%

Private Label 9.8%

2.1%

1.9%

3.8%

0.6%

1.7%

0.7%

8.4%

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

.

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

69


78 79 81 8187 87

8287 91 88

104 104

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU PL

POLAND SNAPSHOT


Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Q4 GDP Trading Economics

2.3

3.2

4.4 4.3

5.2 5.1

-0.9

0.2

2.0 1.8 1.82.2

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



Szymon

Mordasiewicz

Managing Director,

Poland

Poland’s economy continues to perform strongly with GDP at 5.1% in Q4

contributing to the annual growth rate of 4.6% - the highest since 2011. Poland’ s

Central Statistical Office contributes household consumption as the lead driver of

overall GDP growth which grew by 4.8% and was the biggest contributor to

growth. Inflation levels throughout 2017 have been higher than those recorded in

2016 driven predominantly from rising prices in food, housing and transportation.

Poland’s economy is viewed with much positivity with investments increasing by

5.4% after a 7.9% decline a year ago. Foreign trade did little to contribute to GDP

in 2017 (with only 0.1% contribution) which highlights the growing importance of

domestic consumption and foreign investments as drivers of this positive

momentum. This positivity is also reflected in consumer confidence with Poland

ranked in the top five most optimistic consumers across Europe in Q4 2017.

Poland’s FMCG market grew by 6% in Q4 2017 with all distribution channels for

Food and Drug categories contributing with the exception of Hypermarkets for

Drug categories. Discounters performance was strongest across all channels

which is the continuation of a successful strategy mixing an appropriate portfolio of

products, promotions and pricing. Dairy’s growth can be attributed to raw material

price increases while Snack and Confectionary performance was strong due to

introduction of small portion snacks and health products.

A new Polish law that seeks to phase out retailing on Sundays has been set in

motion in 2018 and there is great debate on how this will affect the industry in the

long-term. This new legislation will start with a store opening ban of two Sunday’s

per month with some exceptions for small owner-run stores and petrol station.

However the plan is to increase the ban to three weeks in 2019 and with a

complete ban on Sunday trading effective by 2020. While the impact is uncertain,

there are views that this will shift consumption patterns but not overall spending

levels. What is certain is that it will be a new dynamic that all players must adapt

to.



CCI not available for Poland Q1 and Q2 2017

70


4.3%

-0.6%

3.9%

8.8%

6.3%

1.8%

Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets Discounters Drugstores Small Format

TOTAL POLAND – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

Strong economic environment and positive consumer sentiment

is behind increasing consumption

Decline of Hypermarkets is driven by Drug categories

performance. There has been a visible shift of Drug sales

towards Drug stores and Discounters

TOTAL POLAND - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


11%

15%

32%7%

35%

0.9%

2.8%

-0.1% -0.1%

0.8%2.0%

2.0%

2.2%

3.1%

2.0%

3.4%1.5%

6.3%4.1%

1.8%

2.8%

-1.0%

3.1%1.5% 4.0%

4.4% 4.3%

6.1%

4.1%

2.6%

4.8%

1.0%

5.4%

4.6%

6.0%



71


Growth continues to be driven by companies beyond Top 10 suppliers

Dairy growing mainly from raw material prices. Snacks & Confectionary

growth resulting from small portion packs and pro-health products

TOTAL POLAND – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL POLAND – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG


Total FMCG 100.0%


Culinary 16.8%

Non-Alcoholic Beverages 14.1%

Dairy 13.8%

Confectionery 11.5%

Cosmetics Categories 8.5%

Paper Sanitary Hygiene & Other 4.7%

Home Categories 4.4%

Frozen Products 3.0%

4.3%

1.5%

3.0%

4.0%

9.3%

7.6%

4.2%

4.6%

2.2%

4.1%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 16.0%

Top 6-10 10.9%

Top 11-30 20.0%

Top 31-100 17.3%

100+ 16.3%

Private Label 19.5%

4.3%

1.5%

3.7%

5.0%

5.8%

6.7%

3.2%

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

72


ROMANIA SNAPSHOT Romania's economy continued to grow throughout 2017, with GDP showing

one of the highest increases over the last few quarters across the EU. This

positive momentum was due largely to increases in consumption following

the fiscal initiatives implemented during 2016 and 2017. However, the last

quarter of 2017 brought some turmoil on the political and social scene.

Debatable legislative changes, delays in applying promised benefits for

various social segments and political battles between state institutions are

degrading the overall economic atmosphere. Inflation has started to rise

following 2 years of a deflationary trend.

Romanians’ optimism has declined for the second quarter in a row. After

jumping to a historical peak of 101 points in Q2, consumer confidence index

reached 90 points in Q4, from 98 in Q3.

FMCG registered a 9.3% nominal growth in Q4, with the price increases

responsible for more than half of the growth. The Organized Trade continues

to be dominated by Hypermarkets, who accelerated pace in Q4 2017, but

Supermarkets remain the most dynamic based on store expansion.

Traditional trade, which still accounts for approximately 40% of the market,

also increased in Q4 due to inflationary prices but remains behind total

industry growth. Most FMCG categories registered healthy growth, with Non

Alcoholic beverages, Processed meat and Dairy products being the largest

and most dynamic categories.

Economists continue to issue warnings on the officially communicated

growth predictions, based on unsustainable consumption, lack of public

investments and legislative instability. While Romania shows significant

growth overall in 2017, caution is advisable in planning similar growth for the

following year.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


Source Q4 GDP National Institute of statistics & Q4CPI National Bank of Romania

4.34.8

5.76.1

8.8

6.9

-0.5 -0.5

0.2 0.7 1.5

3.3

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79 81 8185 87 8786 87 85

101 9890

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU RO

Luca De Nard

Managing Director

Romania



73


7.4%

6.8%

18.4%

6.7%

3.9%

-2.4%

13.5%

Total FMCG Hypermarkets Super/Minimarkets

Discounters Traditional Trade Pharma/Cosmetics

Petrol Stations/Convenience

TOTAL ROMANIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

Consumption continues to be the economic growth trigger as

value increases in line with the higher inflationary rate

Supermarkets growth continues through store expansion

TOTAL ROMANIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


29%

18%

11%

40%

1%1%

-2.1%

3.8%

-7.1%-4.1%

0.4% 0.2% 1.1% 1.7% 4.6% 5.2%

11.3%3.6% 15.6%

13.2%10.9% 8.4% 5.3% 4.8%

2.4%4.0%

9.2%

7.4%8.5% 9.1%

11.2%

8.6%

6.4% 6.5% 7.0%

9.3%



74


Fresh food and Non Alcoholic beverages drive the growth,

following increased consumer demand. Household and other

Non-food sales lag behind the overall growth

TOTAL ROMANIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL ROMANIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

Smaller manufacturers outside of the top 10 continue to enjoy the

increasing buying appetite of consumers due to innovations and

increased market presence


Total FMCG 100.0%

Dry Grocery 29.4%

Fresh Food 22.9%

Beverages - Alcoholic 14.4%

Beverages - Non Alcoholic 13.2%

Personal Hygiene/Cosmetics 8.3%

Household Care 7.7%

Frozen Food 3.0%

Non Food 1.1%

7.4%

6.4%

12.9%

5.2%

8.1%

5.3%

3.7%

4.9%

-4.2%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 16.4%

Top 6-10 9.6%

Top 11-30 18.5%

Top 31-100 21.1%

100+ 22.0%

Private Label 12.3%

7.4%

5.5%

5.9%

11.9%

9.2%

5.0%

5.9%

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

75


Amid record-low inflation in Russia in 2017 consumer spending has been revived.

According to official statistics, consumer expenditures grew 3.4% in 2017 mostly

driven by online purchases, imported products and international travel. However,

experts claim that spending is driven mainly by growing credit and debt especially by

lower-income consumers, so the current consumer landscape is still not healthy.

Consumer confidence remained steady and relatively pessimistic throughout 2017.

Spending on FMCG posted positive dynamics in Q4 2017 with sales volumes up

1.2% which is a level not seen during the past two years. However this scenario is

not seen as sustainable. There have been shifts in the retail landscape, with a

number of top retailers trying new formats, for example, opening proximity stores by

hypermarkets, or re-considering their format portfolio moving away from formats that

are least profitable. This experimentation is a sign of rapid change in the way

consumers shop.

Even though consumers seem more able to spend in the current environment, it

does not seem to be transferring to their FMCG budget. However expectations are

increasing with lower prices, better quality assortment and convenience emerging as

key themes. All three components of today’s “best shopper experience” are

increasingly offered by online retailers, either pure online stores or omni-channel

stores. Online sales still account for a low share in most categories with the

exception of Pet and Baby but given the growing consumer acceptance on this

channel, it is time for retailers and manufacturers alike to focus and accelerate their

e-commerce offerings..

Looking forward, the first half of 2018 is expected to be a great time for business

growth for a number of key reasons. Firstly, with the upcoming Presidential elections

the economic environment will be held as stable as possible and it is likely that public

sector employees (who account for 20% of the Russian workforce) will receive salary

indexation or other forms of financial grants. Secondly; the upcoming World Football

Cup 2018 is expected to drive consumption with both visitors and locals.

RUSSIA SNAPSHOT

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

-0.4

0.4 0.5

2.41.9

2.4

6.9

5.7

4.64.2

3.4

2.6

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79 81 8185 87 87

66 6763

70 70 69

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU RU

Alexander Kotsuba,

Managing Director

Nielsen Russia



76


3.2%

6.4%

-4.9%

Total FMCG Modern Trade Traditional Trade

TOTAL RUSSIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

FMCG volume consumption has increased due to economic stability

and holiday consumption in Q4

Modern trade formats continue to expand with experimentation in

new formats by key players at the expense of Traditional Trade

TOTAL RUSSIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


74%

26%

8.2%

3.6%

9.6%

7.2% 7.5%7.0%

5.8%3.3% 1.9% 1.8%

-0.7% -0.4%

0.1%

-0.5%

0.3%

-2.2% -2.4%

0.1%

0.4% 1.2%

7.5%

3.2%

9.7%

6.8%7.9%

4.8%

3.4% 3.5%

2.3%3.0%



77


Smaller manufacturers and Private Label exceed average market

development levels due to lower price offerings

Alcohol sales are strong compared to last year due to more affordable SKUs,

specialist stores’ expansion and trade promotion

TOTAL RUSSIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL RUSSIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG


Total FMCG 100.0%

Other Food & Drinks 28.1%

Tobacco 14.3%

Dairy 12.7%

Beer 8.6%

Personal Care & Make-Up 7.0%

Vodka 6.2%

Sauces & Grocery 4.9%

Premium Alco 4.8%

Home Care 3.2%

Pet 2.7%

Baby Food & Infant Formula 2.3%

Frozen Food & Fish 1.9%

Ice Cream 1.8%

Baby Care 1.3%

3.2%

2.1%

6.3%

5.2%

-2.0%

4.1%

0.0%

-0.8%

13.2%

0.0%

6.5%

5.6%

4.4%

2.6%

1.2%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 19.9%

Top 6-10 12.4%

Top 11-30 16.6%

Top 31-100 16.7%

100+ 30.3%

Private Label 4.1%

3.2%

3.1%

1.8%

2.5%

3.5%

3.8%

4.9%

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

78


Serbia’s economic environment continues to stabilize and investors’ risk perception

improves. The business climate and external environment is also more positive

supporting Serbia’s export sector. Despite public-sector layoffs, total unemployment

in Serbia is actually falling as many new jobs are being created in the private sector,

particularly in manufacturing. If overall unemployment continues to fall as the private

sector flourishes, it is anticipated that household consumption will continue to rise

and support growth.

While consumer optimism remains stable throughout 2017, job security is cited as

consumers’ top concern, which is inline with consumers’ relatively low level of

optimism for job prospects in the next 12 months. According to the official statistics,

in 2017 real GDP grew by 3% with forecasts anticipating growth up to 3.4% in 2018.

Inflation is predicted to continue to decelerate with most economic indicators in

2017 supporting this optimistic view. This has no doubt flowed into consumer

spending with spending on FMCG increasing by 2.9% in Q4 2017.

Serbian shoppers spend RSD 28.179 (€ 229) on food and groceries in a year, which

while €79 lower than the European average, is stable compared to 2016. Out of this

budget, 50% is spent on fresh food. The general perception is that prices for food is

increasing. Consumers are trying to cut back on their living expenses by looking for

discount prices and buying only essential things. Luxury products are not top of

mind or top of their shopping lists. Although Private Label has only 6.1% of value

share, shoppers increasingly recognize Private Label as a value alternative to

branded products.

This year, it is rumored discounter chain Lidl will enter the Serbian market, which

will certainly change the market landscape. Existing retailers are already preparing

proactive strategies for this market disruption. For FMCG manufacturers, the

entrance of a major Discounter chain presents a heightened opportunity to

differentiate their offering or risk a head on challenge as there is little doubt

Discounter brands and Private Label will change the way consumers shop as seen

in other markets across Europe.

SERBIA SNAPSHOT

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


Source Local government source

2.82.5

1.11.4

2.1

2.5

1.0

1.5

3.1

3.7

3.0 2.9

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79 81 8185 87 87

6467 69 69 69 69

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU RS

Andrey

Dvoychenkov

Group Managing

Director Adriatic

Region



79


TOTAL SERBIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

While growth in FMCG is reflective of price increases, as inflationary pressures

have lessened, consumption in the FMCG market has picked up In Q4

Drug stores are performing particularly well driven by new store openings as

well as consumers switching to this format and visiting more often

TOTAL SERBIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


29%

28%

22%

14%

4%3%

0%2.1%

2.4%

9.8%

-7.5%

-0.9%

11.7%

14.3%

0.3%

Total FMCG Hyper/ Super Large Groceries Small Groceries Kiosks/ Pavillions Drug Stores Petrol Stations Pharmacies

3.7%

3.6% 4.6%

3.7%

3.6%

3.4%3.9%

3.3%

0.0%

-1.4% -0.1%

0.6%

-1.2%-2.0%

-2.0%-0.5%

3.7%

2.1%

4.4% 4.2%

2.4%

1.3%1.9%

2.9%

MAT YA MAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17


80


Tobacco which has the biggest impact on overall FMCG growth has performed

well due to price increases

TOTAL SERBIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL SERBIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

While global manufacturers dominate the Top 10, two key local giants

are keeping up the pace successfully operating in Food categories

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017


Total FMCG 100.0%

Tobacco 29.8%

Food Fresh Refrig. 14.6%

Beverages Non-Alcoholic 13.8%

Confectionary And Snacks 11.8%

Beverages Alcoholic 8.1%

Personal Care 7.4%

Food Shelf Stable 6.7%

Household Products 5.1%

Frozen 2.5%

Pet Food 0.3%

2.1%

2.7%

3.5%

2.9%

0.6%

-1.0%

4.8%

-1.0%

-0.5%

6.9%

15.8%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 34.1%

Top 6-10 10.5%

Top 11-30 22.5%

Top 31-100 17.0%

100+ 11.6%

Private Label 4.2%

2.1%

3.6%

-0.3%

0.5%

0.4%

6.6%

1.4%

81


SLOVAKIA SNAPSHOT

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Q4 2017 estimate

3.0 3.0 3.13.4 3.5 3.4

-0.7 -0.1

1.0 1.0

1.6

2.0

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79

8181

85

87 87

8181

82

85

87

86

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU SK

Karel Tyra Managing Director,

Slovakia

2017 was a positive year for the Slovak economy. GDP growth reached 3.4 %

and it is anticipated that it could be even stronger in 2018 and 2019. Declining

unemployment is assisting this positive momentum. The economy is supported

by wage growth which is accelerating inflation and increasing household

consumption. This development influences the retail sector and the FMCG

market is growing on the back of increasingly confident consumers with a

positive outlook on job prospects.

The FMCG market in Slovakia continues its strong performance with growth of

7.5% in Q4 2017 supported by strong volume consumption as well as price

growth. Drug categories have been a strong driver of volume growth which is

behind the exceptional performance of this channel. In Food, Dairy accounts for

the largest percentage of consumers’ spend and is growing at the fastest pace

due to increasing prices across a number of categories. In these favorable

conditions, both big and small manufacturers are growing and the only players

falling behind are Private Labels. This is due to a complexity of reasons – but

predominantly the heavy promotional environment driven by branded players is

eroding into Private Label’s low price territory and their lower quality offering is

making it difficult to compete. Private Label is starting to improving its quality

offering to fight back in this space.

The positive market conditions surrounding the FMCG market (with growth, up-

trading and confident consumers) also brings increasing costs (such as wages

and commodities) which will force many manufacturers and retailers to

reconsider their pricing and promotional strategy. Companies with a focus on

smart optimization based on a detailed knowledge of price sensitives and cross-

effects will be set to win driving profitable growth and not just volume expansion.



82


6.3%

6.2%

6.5%

1.2%

12.9%

Total FMCG Hyper/SupermarketsOrganized Groceries Non Organized GroceriesSK Organized Drug

TOTAL SLOVAKIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

Strong FMCG growth in Q4 is supported by volume as well as pricing

growth

Drug retailers’ are clear winners in the market, while only the Non

Organized channel has not benefited from this buoyant market

TOTAL SLOVAKIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS*

(weighted average)


61%

27%

6%6%

*Restatement of 2016 Coop back data with Q4 17

-1.3%

3.1%

-1.8%-1.8% -1.5% -0.2%

2.6% 3.2%4.9%

3.5%

3.2%

3.2%

4.0%

2.0% 4.1% 2.7%

1.7%

6.1%

-0.7%

4.1%

1.9%

6.3%

2.3%

0.2%

2.6% 2.5%

4.3%

9.3%

4.2%

7.5%



83


All manufacturers are enjoying growth in a very positive market

environment

Dairy accounts for largest share of FMCG and its strong performance has

been driven by increasing prices

TOTAL SLOVAKIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL SLOVAKIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG


Total FMCG 100.0%

Dairy 18.5%

Sweets & Treats 17.2%

Beverages Alcohol 16.6%


Culinary - Shelf Stable 9.9%

Beverages Non Alco 9.0%

Beverages Hot 4.8%

Frozen 3.1%

Home Care excl. Laundry 2.7%

Home Care - Laundry 2.2%

Baking - Shelf Stable 2.2%

Infant Care 1.9%

Pet Care 1.5%

6.3%

9.9%

5.9%

6.4%

6.4%

4.1%

5.2%

3.3%

6.0%

7.0%

3.7%

4.1%

5.9%

7.5%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 14.4%

Top 6-10 10.3%

Top 11-30 16.8%

Top 31-100 18.7%

100+ 19.2%

Private Label 20.6%

6.3%

6.3%

5.3%

6.8%

7.8%

6.8%

4.9%

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

. .

84


79 81 8185 87 87

6469

62

74

84 83

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU SI

SLOVENIA SNAPSHOT

Slovenia is starting to see benefits from improvements in the economic environment

and favorable conditions. Economic growth has primarily come from increased

household consumption, not only through increased loans, modest public spending

and gross fixed capital formation but also through a 16% growth in tourist arrivals.

The banking sector continues to recover, and after returning to profitability in 2016 is

contributing to overall economic growth. The employment rate is increasing (3%

annual growth in November 2017) and consumer optimism remains at the highest

levels seen over the last few years close to the European average. The proportion

of consumers who believe that Slovenia is in an economic recession fell to 37% in

Q4 2017 compared to 60% in Q4 2016. Over a third of consumers (35%), think job

prospects will continue to be good in the next 12 months which is the highest

recorded level in the past years and more than double Q3 2016 levels.

In this environment, Slovenia is enjoying strong FMCG growth especially in the

latest quarter at 4.6% driven by both higher volume sales and price increases as

promotional activity was less aggressive than in the past. Discounters continue to

be the driver of channel growth, expanding in square meters with both store

expansion and upsizing existing stores. They continue to adjust their assortment

strategy bringing more brands into their portfolios and aligning with emerging

consumer trends in areas such as bio and gluten free. Increased promotional

activities in this channel focusing on pensioners and sustainable claims have also

helped performance. Growth in Beverages and Meat products have often come

from new and interesting innovations supporting consumers’ busy lifestyles and

growing awareness for healthy products.

Slovenia’s future looks promising with CEEMA recent survey in December 2017

highlighting that more than 90% of businesses expect growth in revenues and 70%

in profits. Slovenia’s economy is expected to grow by more than 3% over the next

two years which hopefully will continue to boost consumer spending.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


Source Local government

3.4

4.44.9

5.45.1

6.2

0.2 0.6

1.81.4 1.2 1.3

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



Andrey

Dvoychenkov

Group Managing

Director Adriatic

Region



85


2.4%

0.5%

1.6%

-3.5%

7.0%

-3.0%

6.9%

5.9%

Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets Large Groceries

Medium And Small Groceries Kiosks Discounters Drugstores**

TOTAL SLOVENIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

Strong FMCG value growth in Q4 was led by both higher volume sales and

price increases coupled with less aggressive promotions

Discounters have driven greatest value growth focusing on Private Labels/Exclusive

brands in Food categories with low prices

TOTAL SLOVENIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


15%

42%11%

3%0%

25%

4%

-0.4%

1.6%

-0.7% -0.4%

-1.3% -0.4%

-0.1%

1.1% 0.4%2.2%

-0.2%

0.9%

1.0%

1.6%

1.2%0.0%

-1.5%-0.2%

1.5%

2.5%

-0.7%

2.4%

0.4%

1.2%

-0.1% -0.4%

-1.7%

0.9%

1.8%

4.6%



86


Above market growth in Beverages and Meat products has often come from

innovations supporting consumers’ busy lifestyles and growing awareness for

healthy products

TOTAL SLOVENIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL SLOVENIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

Growth consistent across all tiers. Number one manufacturer, driven by

Beer sales, recorded value growth twice that of total FMCG

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017


Total FMCG 100.0%

Beverages 24.4%


Meat And Meat Products 14.3%

Packed Food 11.8%

Confectionery 11.1%

Personal Care 9.8%

Household Care 5.8%

Frozen Food 3.1%

Salted Snacks 2.7%

Baby Food 0.5%

2.4%

3.8%

2.1%

3.7%

-0.7%

1.4%

1.2%

-0.6%

6.1%

12.7%

-3.2%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 17.4%

Top 6-10 8.3%

Top 11-30 15.8%

Top 31-100 15.8%

100+ 10.7%

Private Label 32.0%

2.4%

2.3%

2.8%

2.6%

2.7%

2.2%

2.3%

87


-0.8

4.25.3 5.4

11.1

0.0

7.38.5

11.3 10.9 11.211.9

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



TURKEY SNAPSHOT The Turkish economy showed above normal growth in Q3 2017 coming of low levels

in Q3 2016. Both Turkish domestic spending and exports continued to contribute

strongly to the growth performance. Similar to the first two quarters, households

benefited from the government's policies aimed at boosting demand with initiatives

such as tax discounts in Q3. On top of that, the government’s fiscal stimulus and

nationwide campaign on job creation and credit guaranteed fund loans has resulted in

increased private sector spending – all of which has contributed to growth.

Consumer prices increased sharply throughout 2017 due to government's demand

boosting fiscal policies and increase in the price of imported goods (due to a weakened

TRY). In Q4 inflation hit some of its highest levels at 11.9%.

This inflation has had a significant impact on the FMCG market (excluding Tobacco &

Alcohol) as nominal growth started accelerating from Q1 2017 to reach 16.8% in Q4

2017. While inflationary pressure may have dampened growth, volume growth for 2017

is still ahead of 2016 levels at 5.1% compared to 4.2% respectively.

Comparing Q4 2017 versus Q4 2016, the highest growing sub sectors are Body and

Hair care, Oral care, Dairy and Ice cream. Hair care, Oral care and Dairy recorded

additional price increases above inflation, whereas Body care and Ice cream relied on

strong volume growth. As for Food, health trends are supporting the growth of Nut

Bars, Croquants and Dried nuts, whereas Dairy growth has resulted from strong price

increases in raw milk. Convenience is another trend that leads to stronger growth of

Frozen Food, Noodles, Sachets and Non-chemical Household Cleaners.

Looking forward, manufacturers should continue to seek growth via innovation that

meets consumers’ evolving needs. Health is a key trend, ripe with opportunity as the

consumer, retail and business landscape looks for ways to tap into this growing

consumer trend. Managing pricing and promotional effectiveness across the full

portfolio is also key to ensure optimal brand architecture and profitable growth.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


FMCG: excluding Tobacco/Alcohol

Source Local government – Q4 2017 GDP not available

79 81 8185 87 87

98 9490

107113 112

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU TR

Didem Sekerel

Erdogan

General Manager

Nielsen Turkey, Buy.



88


14.5%

-2.9%

10.0%

10.3%

33.4%

34.4%

3.9%

Total FMCG Hypermarkets

Large & Medium Supermarkets Small Supermarkets

Discounters (A101 BIM SOK) Perfumery

Traditional Trade

TOTAL TURKEY – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

Despite Inflation pressures impacting FMCG from the start of

2017, volume growth is still evident

Discounters and Perfumeries show strongest growth mainly

driven by an increase in number of stores

TOTAL TURKEY - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


5%

22%

11%

32%

3%

27%


6.3%

9.4%

8.3%6.9%

5.7% 4.6%6.0%

8.5%10.3% 12.3%

4.2%

5.1%

2.6% 3.7%

4.4% 6.0%5.6%

5.6%

4.6%

4.5%

10.5%

14.5%

10.9% 10.6% 10.1%10.6%

11.6%

14.2%14.9%

16.8%



89


Hair Care, Oral care and Dairy categories showcase strong

growth driven by additional price increase above inflation

TOTAL TURKEY – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL TURKEY – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

Smaller manufacturers, as well as Private Labels are growing fastest as

consumer seek value offerings in face of increasing prices


*100+ includes private label brands


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 25.0%

Top 6-10 11.5%

Top 11-30 17.9%

Top 31-100 14.8%

100+ 30.8%

14.5%

10.4%

10.4%

13.0%

12.2%

21.9%

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017


Total FMCG 100.0%

Confectionery 21.4%

Non Alcoholic Drinks 21.2%

Dairy 12.8%

Grocery 12.2%

Housekeeping 7.9%

Paper Products 6.2%

Fats And Oils 5.6%

Body Care 3.8%

Ice Cream 3.3%

Hair Care 2.8%

Oral Care 1.4%

Grooming 0.8%

Other 0.6%

14.5%

15.4%

10.9%

17.2%

13.7%

15.2%

13.8%

12.9%

20.9%

17.1%

18.8%

14.3%

11.3%

13.3%

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

90


Q4 2017 marked a positive ending to the overall FMCG industry in Ukraine. Whilst

inflationary effect on prices was high, volume consumption continued to build at a

faster pace, showcasing the improved spending power of Ukrainian consumers, as

a result wages increased above inflationary levels. Legislative changes and reforms

in the state administration processes that were introduced in 2017 appear to be

working although commentators believe there is still significant room for

improvement, most evident with the fight against corruption.

Consumers feel more empowered to spend but that means they are also becoming

more demanding of products, services and brands. They are looking for a more

positive and exciting shopper experience even with a limited budget. The internet

enables them to research extensively a product or service extensively, seeking

advice before actually making a purchase. This change in consumers’ influencers

and path to purchase provides opportunities for retailers to grow basket sizes and

consumer traffic. It is the Modern Trade channel that are leveraging these new

marketing tools more extensively, mostly at the expense of Traditional trade, which

whilst still important in Ukraine (30%), is losing market share.

At the same time, the fight to attract more shoppers versus their competitors is an

ongoing challenge for retailers. It highlights an opportunity for retailers to work

closer with manufacturers to optimize retail strategy and execution. The shift from

hard negotiations to a collaborative, insight driven approach is going to be key in

identifying opportunities to drive further footfall and category expansion.

In an improving, although yet not fully stabilized market environment, brands (both

retailers or manufacturers) need to listen attentively and respond in smart ways to

consumer needs. In a rapidly developing digital world, shoppers have access to

more information than ever before. In additional to focusing on retail executional

tactics such as assortment and promotions, it is pivotal for companies to create a

digital plan that incorporates their overall marketing strategy.

UKRAINE SNAPSHOT

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS


Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Q4 GDP local government source

2.3

4.8

2.5 2.3 2.1 2.2

8.0

12.3

13.9 13.8

16.2

14.0

Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017



79 81 8185 87 87

52 50 5257 58 61

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

EU UA

Vaios Dimoragas

Managing Director

Ukraine and Belarus



91


13.8%

18.4%

21.9%

23.9%

2.5%

Total FMCG Hypermarkets/Supermarkets MT Minimarkets MT Perfumeries MT Traditional Trade

TOTAL UKRAINE – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

FMCG sales volume improved in Q4 due to economic stability and holiday

consumption while prices remained stable

Modern trade continues to grow driven by the national key players leveraging

more innovative marketing tools

TOTAL UKRAINE - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

(weighted average)


52%

12%

6%

30%

16.2%10.0%

27.2%

12.6%9.7% 8.8%

9.7%9.8%

9.9%8.8%

-1.3%

3.8%

-6.5% -0.1%

3.7%0.1% 0.3%

3.6%6.0% 7.0%

14.9% 13.8%

20.7%

12.4% 13.4%

8.9% 10.0%

13.4%

15.9% 15.8%



92


Dairy growth has come from an easing of regulatory pressure allowing for

increased prices. Baby Food growth is a result of expansion of top players

and new entrants operating in these categories

TOTAL UKRAINE – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

TOTAL UKRAINE – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

Growth in mid-sized manufacturers comes from recent price increases

in Food categories where Top 10 (predominantly Non Food operators)

enjoyed price rises earlier


Total FMCG 100.0%

Beverages - Alcoholic 21.7%

Beverages - Non Alcoholic Rtd &

Not Rtd20.8%

Confectionery & Snacks 17.8%


Personal Cleaning & Hygiene 9.4%

Household 5.0%

Seasoning & Sauce 4.1%

Baby Care 2.2%

Meals/Meal Mixes Shelf Stable 2.2%

Pet Food 1.9%

Baby Food & Drinks 1.7%

Desserts/Cakes/Sweet Products 0.6%

13.8%

13.2%

9.4%

16.9%

19.2%

13.9%

13.3%

11.9%

8.6%

17.6%

14.0%

20.1%

7.5%


Total FMCG 100.0%

Top 1-5 23.9%

Top 6-10 13.6%

Top 11-30 22.9%

Top 31-100 21.1%

100+ 12.9%

Private Label 5.6%

13.8%

13.5%

11.3%

15.7%

15.2%

13.7%

9.8%

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017

93


Store and Chain Banner Universe

BELGIUM

TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016

Total 7201 7163 7163

Hypermarkets 52 52 52

Large supermarkets 866 883 928

Small supermarkets 1746 1751 1706

Superettes 1483 1468 1476

Traditional grocers 3054 3009 3001

Store Universe Numbers

HYPERMARKETS > 2500m² LARGE SUPERMARKETS 1000 - 2500 m2 SMALL SUPERMARKETS 400 - 1000 m2 SUPERETTES 100 - 400 m2 TRADITIONAL GROCERS <100 m2

STORE TYPE 2016 2017

OTHER Self Service Excluding

Petrol <400m2 1065 1030

Carrefour 713 728

Delhaize 587 590

Colruyt 572 590

Aldi 444 443

Lidl 291 294

Kruidvat 223 240

Lambrecht Group 127 134

Louis Delhaize 121 120

Di 118 120

Hema 97 96

Other Supermarkets 89 91

Intermarché 79 78

Alvo 57 57

Metro 15 16

Cora 7 7

Chain Store Numbers

IN THE INDUSTRY: EUROPE WEST

94


FRANCE



Total 21811 20336 20872





HYPERMARKETS > 2500m² LARGE SUPERMARKETS 1000 - 2500 m2 SMALL SUPERMARKETS 400 - 1000 m2 SUPERETTES 100 - 400 m2


Hypermarkets

Centre E. Leclerc 607 620

Carrefour 228 232

Auchan 136 136

Geant Casino 110 110

Intermarche Hyper 89 87

Hyper U 65 61

Cora 58 59

Les Halles D'auchan 4 4

Auchan City 2 2

Record 1 1

Supermarkets

Intermarche Super 1332 1343

Super U 715 721

Market 508 574

Carrefour Market 523 455

Casino 357 365

Monoprix 310 311

Simply Market 291 152

Auchan Supermarche 0 131

Match 123 117

Atac 60 54

Hyper Casino 39 38

Bi 1 18 23

Intermarche 15 11

Galeries Gourmandes 3 2

Simply Market Gourmand 1 1

Champion 1 1

Chain Store Numbers

95


GERMANY


Total 32306 31220 30667








Grocery+drugdiscounter 35,343 35,143

Edeka 11,694 11,622

Markant 7,689 7,66

Rewe 6,828 6,825

Aldi 4,221 4,159

Lidl 3,195 3,182

Other 1,717 1,695

Chain Store Numbers

96


ITALY


Total 117429 116400 89511




Superettes 14120 13365 12613





COOP ITALIA 1550 1567

CONAD 2865 2915

SELEX COMMERCIALE 2190 2241

ESSELUNGA 152 155

GRUPPO CARREFOUR ITALIA SPA 1035 1011

GRUPPO AUCHAN 1801 1711

EUROSPIN 1025 1079

GRUPPO VEGE 1811 1859

LIDL ITALIA 597 616

GRUPPO PAM 914 857

FINIPER 243 250

GRUPPO SUN 584 588

CRAI 2058 2181

Chain Store Numbers

97


NETHERLANDS


Total 4998 5037 4872








Albert Heijn 958 962

Jumbo 580 583

Plus 261 260

Detailresult 198 200

Dirk Van Den Broek 117 120

Dekamarkt 81 80

Coop 258 263

Emté 133 130

Hoogvliet 65 68

Deen 80 82

Spar Formule 241 261

Jan Linders 59 60

Poiesz 68 68

Mcd 39 41

Aldi 498 490

Lidl 411 412

Chain Store Numbers

98


PORTUGAL



Total 15874 15523 15465








Total Sonae 225 245

Auchan 33 40

Total Jerónimo Martins 396 405

Intermarché 243 245

Lidl 245 250

Minipreço 541 543

Chain Store Numbers

99


SPAIN



Total 51085 51611 51615




Superettes 9696 10086 10089




Mercadona, S.A. 1,614 1.627

Dia, S.A. 3,704 3,553

Grupo Carrefour 618 687

Grupo Eroski 1,302 1,284

Auchan Retail España, S.A. 357 366

Lidl Supermercados, S.A.U. 528 545

Consum, Sdad.Coop. 676 696

El Corte Ingles/Hipercor 274 271

Coviran, S.C.A. 1,729 1,724

Aldi Supermercados, S.L. 263 278

Condis Supermercats, S.A. 479 525

Ahorramas, S.A. 251 252

Gadisa (Grupo) 314 317

Bon Preu, S.A. 169 174

Alimerka, S.A. 173 172

Grupo Froiz 284 286

Dinosol Supermercados, S.L. 218 216

Uvesco, S.L. 206 230

Chain Store Numbers

100


UNITED KINGDOM


Total 31987 32570 32570




Superettes 15472 16183 16183





Tesco 2590 2593

Sainsbury 1382 1406

Asda 565 572

Morrisons 491 491

Co operative 3969 3707

Waitrose 354 355

Iceland 837 862

Aldi 684 762

Lidl 650 694

M&S 902 956

Chain Store Numbers

101


IN THE INDUSTRY:

EUROPE EAST & CENTRAL

BELARUS


STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Euroopt 344 452 500

Rublevski 63 71 74

Belmarket 69 74 70

Mart Inn 30 29 25

ProStore 5 5 5

Gippo 12 11 11

Almi 43 43 49

Sosedi 75 70 87

Dionis 13 15 15

Korona 11 28 38

Zlatka 17 17 20

Green 3 5 7

Vitalur 39 43 47

Bigzz 3 4 7

Dobronom 191 68 158

Domashni 3 36 50

Chain Store Numbers

TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016 2017

Hyper&supermarkets 554 730 765 765

Large groceries* 1333 1358 1430

Small groceries* 3166 3061 2966

Kiosks, pavilions, &

Open markets 3371 3300 3504 3504

Chain Drugstores 1113 1258 1639

Groceries MT** 2054 2106 2153 2255

Groceries TT ** 2445 2313 2243 2341

*not reported since 2017

** since 2016

Store and Chain Banner Universe

102


BULGARIA



Hyper / Supermarkets

(>100 sq.m) 1120 1111 1133

Small SM & Traditional

trade (<100 sq.m) 21002 20104 20103

Horeca 27642 26905 24884

Convenience 6050 5985 5860

Pharmacies 3151 3066 3033

Drug stores 2404 2142 2152

STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Grocery

Billa 97 110 118

Kaufland 55 56 58

Lidl 79 83 86

Piccadilly 20 16

CBA 194 196 201

Fantastico 38 39 41

Carrefour 13

T Market 47 61 65

Cash & Carry

METRO C&C 11 11 11

Drug store

DM 54 65 71

Lilly 47 56 69

Chain Store Numbers

103


CROATIA


Chain Store Numbers



Supermarkets 631 638 654

Large groceries 1195 1203 1223

Medium Groceries 3063 3022 3076

Small Groceries 2173 2083 1880

Kiosks/Tobacconists 2545 2543 2449

Petrol Stations 830 822 876

Drugstores 329 325 335

STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Tobacconist

Tisak 1005 949 865

iNovine 251 254 241

Fibis 11 9 8

NLK 36

Smoking kiosk 88

Drug Stores & Cosmetics

dm - drogerie markt 154 156 155

Kozmo 77 68

Bipa 72 81 98

Douglas 28 25 25

Gas Station

INA 383 391 383

Tifon 43 43 44

KTC 12

Petrol 101 101 101

Adria Oil 11 15 15

104


CROATIA

Chain Store Numbers

STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Hyper/Supermarkets, Groceries

Konzum 708 666 607

Billa 61 61

Interspar 52 53 103

Kaufland 36 39

Boso 165 173 185

Pemo 31 33 34

Bakmaz 125 131 127

NTL+NTL Istok 218 233 240

Metss 180 181 179

Trgostil 71 107 105

Diona 61 17 8

Trgonom 47 49 51

Lonia 223 243 250

Trgocentar Zabok 65 76 80

Victa 7 9 10

Sonik 108 101 84

Ribola 56 60 66

PPK Bjelovar 63 63 63

Prehrana 88 84 88

Mlin i pekare 244 287

Djelo 66 65

Jadranka trgovina 11 10

Valalta 3 2

Strahinjčica 40 47

Union 8 8

Vrutak 4 4

KTC 27

Kvarner Punat 22 23

B.tex 1

105


CZECH REPUBLIC



Supermarket (Food & Mixed Store 401 -

2500 m2) incl. Disc.

1349 1334 1311

Hupermarket (Food & Mixed Store 2501m2+)

314 318 321

Chemical stores 2203 2171 2038

Food & Mixed Store (400 m2)

13917 13642 13437

STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Hyper/Supermarkets

Tesco 200 198 194

Albert 331 331 330

Globus 15 15 15

Kaufland 123 126 128

Billa 204 212 218

Discounters

Penny 357 364 373

Lidl 229 225 235

Drugstores

DM 223 223 227

Rossmann 124 131 132

PK Solvent 458 517 764

Chain Store Numbers

106


ESTONIA


STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Discounters

Rimi 86 90 87

Maxima 75 74 74

Prisma 8 8 8

Selver 45 47 48

Kaubamaja 6 6 50

Coop Maksimarket 9 10 10

Comarket 19 18 17

Grossi 54 55 57

Perfumeries

Rosalind 6 6 7

Ideal Kosmeetika 23 22 21

Laminto 26 26 26

I.L.U. 6 6 6

Pharmacies

Benu 143 145 148

Sudameapteek 69 68

Chain Store Numbers




Discounters 49 46 41


Groceries 431 386 381

Perfumeries 176 175 166

Household/Chemical

Stores 161 149 153


Convenience Stores 440 419 402

107


GREECE


Total 17651 17653 17608









Ahold - delhaize 259 270

Anedik kritikos 104 127

Bazaar 72 79

Eys* 322

Massoutis 236 242

Pente 152 153

Sklavenitis 149 149

Marinopoulos* 339

Metro 203 206

Grand total 1514 1548

Chain Store Numbers

108


HUNGARY




Independent 10748 11948 11434

Small organized 5731 3691 3499

Large organized 604 613 581

Drug Stores 2186 2370 2196


STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Hypermarket

Tesco hyper 111 111 111

Auchan hyper 19 19 19

Interspar 32 32 33

Metro 13 13 13

Large + Small Organized

Tesco super 97 96 95

Spar 376 389 408

CBA 1342 668 539

Coop 3186 1445 2574

Reál 1335 451 463

Discounters

Lidl 162 164 167

Aldi 106 116 126

Others

Other 10748 11948 11434

Chain Store Numbers

109


ISRAEL


STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Shufersal 277 269 272

Rami Levi 39 51 58

Yeinot Bitan 69 72 84

ABA Victory 33 43 48

Superpharm 218 229 236

Chain Store Numbers


Hypermarket 424 458 485

Supermarket 1181 1212 1230

Minimarkets 2735 2735 2735

Convenience 805 779 787

110


KAZAKHSTAN


STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Small 29 37 59

Lider 33 36 38

Green 41 33

BestStore 15 27 22

Ramstore 27 19 18

Bahus 17 19 24

Magnum 13 18 32

Vkusnaya Korzinka 9 14 18

A-2 14 16

Aprel 8 9 8

Chain Store Numbers


Large Food & Mixed

Stores 936 1015 1297

Medium Food & Mixed

Stores 5622 5828 6154

Small Food & Mixed

Stores 22147 21521 20355

Urban Kiosks & Pavilions 2675 2863 2662

Urban Open Markets 6843 7356 7874

Cosmetics/Perfumeries 2430 2493 2421

Households 2395 2405 2110


111


LATVIA


Chain Store Numbers






Groceries 1943 1864 1843


Household/Chemical

Stores 489 475 451



STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Discounters

Rimi 116 118 118

Maxima 148 150 151

Mego 91 88 91

IKI/ IKI Express 0 0 0

Cento 0 0 0

Nelda 0

Prisma 5 3 0

Elvi 122 118 116

Perfumeries/Households

Drogas 85 88 88

Kolonna/Douglas 0 0 26

Multilukss 16 16 16

Supereuro 0 0 0

Pharmacies

Mēness aptieka 220 226 234

Benu 63 64 64

Euroaptieka 51 51 52

112


LITHUANIA


Chain Store Numbers






Groceries 2960 2844 2886


Household/Chemical

Stores 432 422 408



STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Hypermarkets, Supermarkets

Rimi 52 55 55

Maxima 231 239 236

Norfa 138 141 141

IKI 195 217 214

IKI Express 20 19 19

Prisma 4 4 0

Fresh Market 0 0 0

Discounters

IKI Cento 24 0 0

Lidl 29

Solo 10 10 10

Perfumeries/Households

Sarma/Douglas 33 26 26

Drogas 53 53 53

Kosmada 16 17 17

Eurokos 115 116 119

Kristiana 12 12 11

Pharmacies

Eurovaistine 272 271 269

Camelia 323 330 331

Benu 85 83 84

Norfos vaistine 95 99 101

Gintarine vaistine 232 226 22

113


POLAND




Supermarkets excl. Discounters

3133 3125 3167

Total Discounters 3697 3776 3849

Drugstores 8419 8235 8045

Large Groceries excl. Discounters

6874 7310 7258

Large Groceries excl.

Discounters incl. Chemical Chains 8520 8982 8962

Medium Groceries 28324 27376 27265

Small Groceries 40543 38531 35418

Kiosks 11751 11336 10960

Petrol Stations 6429 6423 6343

Sweet & Alcohol 5263 5313 5657

Chain Store Numbers

Not available

114


ROMANIA


STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Hypermarket

Carrefour 29 32 33

Cora 11 11 11

Real 4 4 2

Auchan 33 33 33

Kaufland 107 112 116

Supermarket

Profi 367 500 696

Billa 86 86 86

Mega Image 466 523 591

Carrefour Market 106 123 146

Express 2 3 5

Angst 2 2 2

Express 41 41 41

Contact 10 10 10

drogerie markt 80 91 94

Chain Store Numbers


Cosmetic Store 837 767 772


Drogerias 71 80 91


Kiosks 2540 2126 2076

Kiosks Newspaper 2715 2122 2040

Large Grocery 17929 19355 19322

Medium Grocery 27106 28089 27727

New-kiosk Newsagents 193 197 195

Pet Food Store 1075 1145 1169

Petrol Stations Chains 1184 1152 1158

Pharmacy 7711 7757 7656

Small Grocery 23841 19239 19106

Store Within Petrol Station 610 704 673


Vet Pharmacy 1456 1677 1656

115


ROMANIA

STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Cash & Carry

Metro 26 25 25

Metro Punct 5 5 5

Selgros 19 21 22

Discounters

Penny Market 174 195 220

Penny Market XXL 8 8

Lidl 191 203 218

Chain Store Numbers

116


RUSSIA



Total 205507 205456 206750



Superettes 33249 35807 37676


HYPERMARKETS > 2500m² SMALL SUPERMARKETS 400 - 1000 m2 SUPERETTES 100 - 400 m2 TRADITIONAL GROCERS <100 m2


Magnit 13653 15993

Pjaterochka 7820 10856

Lenta 208 295

Auchan giper 97 104

Diksi/kvartal/deshevo/viktorija 2746 2662

Chain Store Numbers

117


SERBIA


STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Cash & Carry

Tempo 12 12 12

Metro 11 10 9

Drugstore

Lilly 140 161 180

dm 57 71 86

Jasmin 21 30 30

Kiosks

Stampa 534 582 575

Futura Plus 603 592 536

Srem press 37 36 33

Corner Shop 102 50 51

Graf art doo 25 25

Intermezzo System 14 35

Petrol Stations

NIS 329 330 317

Lukoil 114 115

Knez petrol 70 70

OMV 61 61 61

EKO 45 54 53

AVIA 49 49

MOL 43 42

Petrol 8 8 11

DAKI Petrol 9

Chain Store Numbers


Hypers 85 88 88

Supers 443 491 517

Large Gr. 1006 1066 1084

Medium Gr. 3710 3812 3934

Small Gr. 10723 10484 9607

Mixed Kiosks 3549 3326 3273

Pavilions 900 834 838

Sp. Drug Stores 627 645 682

Perfumeries Pure 16 26 26

Perfumeries Mixed 412 376 344


118


SERBIA

Chain Store Numbers

STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Hypermarkets / Supermarkets / Groceries

Idea 287 301 302

Maxi 156 185 218

Aman 140 154 180

Shop & Go 165 169

Gomex 123 142 148

Persu 128 124 135

Podunavlje 92 111 122

Univerexport 40 84 94

Luki Komerc 69 71 71

Senta Promet 40 50 50

Soulfood 50 48

Trgopromet 48 46 48

Aroma Market 18 43 50

Metalac Proleter 43 43

Sunce 25 30 39

Morava 35 35

Rodic/Roda Formati 34 33 34

Trend Commerce 30 30

Europrom 31 29 29

Kastrum 26 26 29

Pekabeta /C - Market/ Mini

Maxi*** 203 27

Dis 16 24 26

Vum 24 24

Orion 22 22

Trlic Marketi 20

VP Dima 15 19 19

Amanplus 15 18

Tekijanka 11 17 17

Medius 15 15

Trnava Promet 14 14

119


SERBIA

STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Hypermarkets / Supermarkets / Groceries

ES Komerc 8 12 12

Styline 12 12

Sprint Market - 7 Juli 12 12

Tempo Express 15 13 10

Ljubago 11 12

Braca Popovic 6 11 11

Mega Market 10 10 10

Nsbomi 10 10

Žinasa 8 8

Veropoulos 6 6 6

Green Market 5 6 6

AS Trgovina 4 4 4

Fortuna 3 4 4

Orasac 1 4 4

Stanovo 3 4 4

Plitvice Marketi 4

Martinovic 2 3 3

Mercator 2 2 2

Interex 9

Novitas 14

Angropromet 26

Ljubisavljevic 20

Rekić 20

Višnjica 22

Lurdy 11

Palma 1 1

Parkic 2 1

Rič 30 30 44

Zlatan Trag 26 26 26

Gala promet 14 14

Chain Store Numbers

120


SLOVAKIA



Organized Trade (incl. Lidl)

4632 4726 4888

Non Organized Trade 3975 3821 3656

Organized Chemical

stores 514 517 550

STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Hypermarkets/Supermarkets/Large Mixed

Tesco 161 154 151

Kaufland 58 62 63

Billa 131 136 145

COOP Jednota 2203 2162 2125

CBA 538 538 523

Terno+Moja Samoska 118 114 108

Discounters

Lidl 124 123 131

Drugstores

DM 136 138 142

101 163 172 182

Teta 218 246 279

Chain Store Numbers

121


SLOVENIA


STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Mercator 474 471 466

Mercator franchize stores 220 214 196

Spar/Interspar 97 99 100

Tuš 98 97 97

Tuš franchize stores 98 85 79

Klasek 14 14

Mlinotest 51 51 57

3 DVA 213 209 196

Delo prodaja 96 102 100

dm 71 73 79

Tuš drogerija 40 40 41

Dominur 8 4 4

Petrol 309 307 307

OMV 108 103 104

Hofer 78 81 82

Lidl 47 49 52

Eurospin 46 46 47

Fama 19 19 21

Jager 35 36 39

Mercator Beautique 8 5 5

Muller 15 15 15

MOL Slovenija 34 51 47

Ina 6 6 6

E.Leclerc 2 2 2

Agip 15

Chain Store Numbers



Supermarket 317 315 317

Large Groceries 453 448 437

Medium and Small

Groceries 456 470 500

Kiosks 363 357 359

Drug Stores 141 149 143


122


TURKEY


TOTAL TURKEY w/o BIM & A101

& ŞOK 2,15,059 2,11,507 2,06,521

TOTAL MODERN TRADE w/o

BIM & A101 & ŞOK 11,181 11,799 11,881

Hypermarkets (>= 2500 smq) 259 253 252

Large Supermarkets (1000-24999

sqm) 965 999 1,003

Small Supermarkets (400-999 sqm) 3,102 3,288 3,321

Small Self Service (< 400 sqm) 6,855 7,259 7,305

TRADITIONAL STORES 1,40,472 1,36,207 1,31,715

Traditional Stores (>=50 sqm) 31,490 32,347 32,130

Traditional Stores (<50 sqm) 1,08,982 1,03,860 99,585

Specialists (DFV, Tekel+Mixed

Kiosk) 31,816 31,241 30,422

Dfv 12,442 11,724 10,790

Kiosks (Tekel Kiosk+Mixed Kiosk) 19,374 19,517 19,632

Gas Stations 4,627 4,835 4,979

Perfumeries 2,357 2,377 2,308

Pharmacies 24,606 25,048 25,216


Years represents beginning of the year

Bim, A101 and Şok numbers are as of March


Perfumeries

Gratis 398 499

Rossman 65 89

Cosmohome 17 33

Cosmetica 8 10

Watsons 249 322

Cosmo City 4 4

Fatih Kozmetik 20 24

Odak 11 5

T-Shop 24 31

Yuncu Ali 9 19

Suvari 3 -

Cosmoshe - 10

Pino Kozmetik - 14

Chain Store Numbers

123


TURKEY


Supermarkets

4 AS 10 9

ADANA SEKERCILER 11 12

ADESE 93 147

ADESEM 61

AKRANLAR 14 15

AKUGUR AVM 21 22

AKYURT 39 40

ALDA MARKET 8 5

ALNIACIK AVM 24 15

ALTUN CENTER 18 21

ALTUNBILEKLER 79 77

ALYA AVM 10 9

ANBERA 11 13

ARMINA MARKET 13 14

AYMAR 17 19

AYPA MARKET 10 11

BARIS GROSS 19 19

BASDAS MARKET 16 25

BASGIMPA 55 54

BEGENDIK 40 29

BICEN GIDA 26 27

BURDA 29 27

CAGDAS 100 103

CAGRI 46 53

CARMAR DIYRBAKIR 13 13

CARREFOUR 36 33

CARREFOUR EXPRESS 620 596

CELIKKAYALAR 15 16

CEM HIPERMARKET 10 10

EFOR MARKET 9 -

EGE SOK 42 50

EKO BAYMAR 9 10

ERENLER 9 9

ESSEN 13 17

FURPA MARKET 42 46

GIMSA 10 11

Chain Store Numbers


Supermarkets

GIZERLER 7 7

GOKKUSAGI 14 12

GROSERI 21 24

GRUP RAMMAR 42 43

GULENLER AVM 13 13

GUNEY 5 4

HADIM 36 36

HAPPY CENTER 130 134

IRMAKLAR MARKET 20 21

ISMAR TRABZON 11 11

ISRAM 11 9

IST SEYHANLAR 15 17

IYAS 5 7

KANDEMIR 8 4

KIBAROGLU 16 16

KILER-TR 36 35

KIM 80 83

KIPA 49 49

KIPA EXPRESS 118 111

MACRO 36 42

MARKA GIDA 52 -

MARKETIM AYGUN 4 3

MEPAS 24 24

METROPOL 25 -

MIGROS 1291 1414

MOPAS 103 101

NAMLI 17 20

OLI CENTER 20 20

ONUR GROUP 82 152

ONUR HIPERMARKET 23 31

ORUC 21 21

OZDILEK 18 20

OZHAN 38 44

OZKURUSLAR 27 29

OZTURK 16 10

PEKDEMIR AVM 34 28

124


TURKEY

Chain Store Numbers


Supermarkets

CIVITCIOGLU - 14

AZDA SUPERMARKET - 11

MILLI PAZAR - 28

ETIK MARKETIM - 12

ACEM MARKET - 9

CERGIBOZANLAR - 26

BERKA - 13

KENTPARK AVM - 11

KILO MARKET - 12

AYDIN CETINLER - 15

MAVI KOSE - 8

KESKIN AVM - 10

KALAFATLAR - 10

NESELI - 13


Supermarkets

PEKDEMIR CIFTLIGI 76 77

PEKDEMIR GIDA 4 4

REAL 8 -

ROTA MARKET 10 10

SANMAR 15 15

SARIYER SPM 11 11

SAVASIR GIDA 10 10

SAYPA 67 -

SEHZADE MARKET 29 33

SEKERCILER 11 11

SEMBOL CENTER 13 13

SEREF MAKRO 195 188

SEYHANLAR 112 113

SHOW MARKET 14 15

SINCAP 26 26

SNOWY 17 18

SOYKAN 56 52

SOZ TTM 17 20

SULTAN MARKETIM 29 32

TURKIS 10 -

UCLER 11 10

UGUR AVM 12 11

UVEK 14 13

UYSAL MARKET 12 12

UYUM 60 57

YEGENLER

HIPERMARKET 7 7

YHM 8 8

YUNUS 82 94

125


UKRAINE



Supermarket + <2500 1920 1920 2132

Hypermarket >2500 127 132 129

Large Grocery 887 755 697

Minimarket 1963 2134 2360

Large Multipurpose 688 648 567

Medium Grocery 7502 7107 7417

Medium Multipurpose 3518 3375 3381

Small Grocery 20311 19387 21940

Small Multipurpose 2977 2767 3551

Food Pavilion 4641 4219 3923

Mixed Pavilion 1927 1875

Food Kiosk 8364 7387 6424

Mixed Kiosk 952 707

Household Store 2882 3008 3408

Pharmacy 13940 14158 14653

Perfumery 7951 7776 8406

Om 49968 45976 45211

Tobacco 1254 1282 1356

126


UKRAINE

STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

ATB 813 903

Vezunchik 182 230 257

Fora 230 238 241

Silpo 263 244 235

Delvi 115

EKO-market 106 114 114

Rukavychka 92 106 128

LotOK 31 61 85

Furshet 79 81 76

Polissya Product 71 70 74

Vopak 77 72 65

Varus 55 58 60

Veresen 26 22 13

Nektar 112

Sim-23 48 58

Epicentr 43 45

Kolibris 36 40 32

Faino Market 32 42 45

Soyuz 44 42 39

Billa 39 36 28

Blizenko 33 38

Digma 22 34

Novus 32 34

Nash Kray 28 27 26

Tochka 19 36

Grosh 4 9 2

Sviy market 23

Chain Store Numbers

127


UKRAINE

STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017

Metro C&C 26 27 23

555 19 17 12

Chudo market 9 12 18

Pchelka market 16

Nova Liniya 14 14

Arsen 9 10 9

Delikat 7 7 10

Fozzy hypermarket 8 9 9

Fresh 9 9 9

Karavan 9 9 2

Gostynniy dim 9 8 8

Pakko 8 8 8

Salut 6 7 7

Dobriy Kupets 8 6 6

K-Market 4 5 5

Molly 5 5 5

Pakko C&C 8 7 4

TOP MART 5 5

Vopak Uzhgorod 4 4 4

Bravo 3 3 3

Tam Tam 4 4 3

Barvinok 51 27 2

Korona 6 6

Nash! 1 1

Poltava 2 1 1

Sympatyk 1 1

Chain Store Numbers

128


Economy Watch

% GDP per annum growth sourced from Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

Inflation, consumer prices % change per annum sourced from Economist

Intelligence Unit (EIU) or from local government statistics offices where

unavailable.

The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted

in collaboration with Nielsen. - Survey is based on respondents with Internet

access. Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of

optimism/pessimism. Q1 2017 CCI results are unavailable this quarter due to

a Nielsen global survey service enhancement.

FMCG Market Dynamics - compares overall market dynamics (value and unit

growth) in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector based on the sales

tracking Nielsen performs in the mentioned markets. The FMCG definition is

based on the widest possible basket of product categories that are

continuously tracked by Nielsen in each of these countries and channels.

Nominal value growth: Percentage change in value sales (expenditures) as

measured by the total basket of reported product categories

Unit value growth (≈ ‘price’ change):

• The change in average price per unit may result from:

• Price changes of individual products

• Change in the mix of purchased products; more or less expensive

products, more or less promotions, etc.

• Channel switching; more or less purchases in discount stores, or

hypermarkets, or convenience outlets, etc.

• Product or channel mix changes may be induced by price change

or may just be the result of market dynamics.

• The unit value growth reflects how consumers experience ‘cost of

living’ in their actual grocery shopping behaviour.

Volume growth: Percentage change in purchased volume (quantity) of

products

Super Category Performance – definition of Super Categories are based on

local market definitions

CLICK HERE FOR DETAILS

DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES

http://www.nielsen.com/content/dam/nielsenglobal/eu/docs/pdf/QBN Europe Super Category Q4 2017.pdf

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