Europe 100% renewable in 2050

A logical explanationfor a realistic vision

Kristian PetrickManaging Director Factor CO2 EnnovaBarcelona, September 2010www.factorCO2.com

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„I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal,before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and

returning him safely to the Earth."John F. Kennedy – May 25, 1961

Introduction

With a fascinating vision, mankind is able to accomplish amazing projects

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Agenda

1.Is it realistic?

2.Can we afford it?

3.Can we do it?

a)Concept of „Energy Autonomy“

b)Examples

c) Energy Outlook

a)Cost curves

b)Business vs. public economics

a)Urgency

b)Stakeholder Analysis

c) Recommendations

Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“

What is required to be convinced of a vision?– An open mind to follow logical arguments

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Europe

1.a Concept of Energy Autonomy

Wind parks,solar plants, geothermal,wave power,

…

Photovoltaic, solar thermal, heat pumps, ....

Homes and buildings

Regions / Countries

Devices: Solar powered phones, laptops, ...

Appliances: Washing machines, motors, ...

Small hydro, biomass plants, solar parks, ...

Apartment buildings, vehicles, ...

Cities,Industries

Villages and municipalities

Animated slide

Think in “energy self-sufficient units” – and demand, efficiency and renewables go hand-in-hand

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1.b Examples: Devices

Solar-calculators

Existing…

Solar-mobile phones

Solar-MP3 Player

Solar-Notebooks

Probably soon…

Designed byAlbert Bellot

Integrate the power supply in a practical and innovative way – making devices independent from the

grid

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1.b Examples: Appliances and buildings

New appliances only with highest standardsallowed

South

Gas / Oil

Future …Today …

„Power Plus House“

South

Accept higher efficiency standards, generate your own energy – and show your pride with convincing words

Avoid misleading / unattractive terms

like„Passive House“ or

„Zero Energy House“

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Vehicles

From now on …Until now …

3-liter Lupo

E-Car Think E-Mini

3-liter Porsche

Make efficient products attractive – not necessarily cheap! –

with target-group specific marketing

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1.b Examples: Industry

Aluminium plant withsolar power, Spain

Aluminium plant withwind and ocean power, UK

Aluminium plant withhydro power, Norway

Aluminium plant withbiomass power, Netherlands

Maybe soon …Today …

Consider renewable energy for your company – you find it already for competitive prices in Europe

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Europe in 2050 …Europe today …

Municipalities and regions

Imagine yourself, your neighbours and your region using energy from nearby

CoalUranium Gas

Gas

Oil

Oil

Renewable generation

Self-sufficient municipality

Fossil/nuclear power plant

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Renewable energies

Fossil and nuclear energies

• Energy Conservation / Savings• Energy Efficiency• Intelligent („passive“) use of energy

100%„Active“ use

of energy

2050Small or easy applications/installations Complex industries/cities

1.c Energy Outlook

Energy Use

Today

Invest consistently in renewables and use energy intelligently

– and the vision will come true automatically

Growth of renewables, decrease of total energy use

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

En

erg

y U

se

8% growth until 2020, 5% until 2040, then 2% 8% growth until 2015, 5% until 2030, then 2%

8% growth until 2025, 5% until 2040, then 2% 8% growth until 2020, 5% until 2040, then 2%

0.5% savings + efficiency 2% savings + efficiency until 2020, then 1%

1% savings + efficiency

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Agenda

So it may be realistic, but what is with the costs?

1.Is it realistic?

2.Can we afford it?

3.Can we do it?

a)Concept of „Energy Autonomy“

b)Examples

c) Energy Outlook

a)Cost curves

b)Business vs. public economics

a)Urgency

b)Stakeholder Analysis

c) Recommendations

Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“

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2.a Cost curves

Time

developing countries

Countries in transition

developed countries

Energy costs

Renewable energies• Economies of scale• Technical

improvementsAffordable for...

Fossil/nuclear energies• Depletion• Internalization of

emissions • Security of supply

Today(depending on technology and location)

Accept that the times of cheap energy are over – and realize that only renewables can become

cheaper

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2.b Business- vs. socio-economic costs

Equipment & financing

State

Fossil economy

Fossil Fuels & security of supply

€€

€kWh

subsidies / support schemes

taxes €

Equipment & financing

State

Renewable economy

€

€kWh

subsidies / support schemes

taxes

Bu

sin

ess

econ

om

ics

Socio

econ

om

ics

€

€

Damages

Challenge the ones who say we cannot afford 100% renewables – let them define which costs they mean

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Agenda

If it is realistic and affordable, what do we have to do?

1.Is it realistic?

2.Can we afford it?

3.Can we do it?

a)Concept of „Energy Autonomy“

b)Examples

c) Energy Outlook

a)Cost curves

b)Business vs. public economics

a)Urgency

b)Stakeholder Analysis

c) Recommendations

Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“

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3.a Urgency

2015< 80

months

Time left according to IPCC to curb emissions world-wide

2009 2050

We need a convincing vision to• implement renewables faster• avoid investments in old

technologies• avoid unnecessary emissions• get innovative ideas of more people• create optimism

Renewables

Fossil & nuclear

Savings, eficiency and intelligent use

Use of energy

xxBe aware that we have to get on the right track now– and not waste time and money anymore

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3.b Stakeholder Analysis

Target Group

Fossil / nuclear Neutral Renewables

Deciders / Multipliers:• Politicians• Managers / Entrepreneurs• Private „Budget Holders“

Interests

„Normal“ Population:• Private citizens• Employees / Workforce• Administration

European Population

Stakeholders

Convince decision makers – and the population will increasingly benefit from renewable technologies

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Serious humor

“The metal workers destroy our workplaces”

“Save thehand axe industry!”

“Union Stone and Axe:

Maintain the subsidies”

“Save us”Greser & Lenz, Kunstmann

Verlag

Realize that the fossil age is over, the renewable age has begun – even if some may not like it

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1. Inform yourself & your family about energy and climate change

2. Buy smart(= considering energy)

3. Switch / turn off what you don‘t use

1. Invest smart(= considering energy)

2. Improve & support renewable technologies

3. Have guts to change unsustainable business models or jobs

1. Implement consistent policies quickly

2. Provide infrastructure and support

3. Prohibit inefficient / polluting technologies and activities

& „normal“ citizens & employees / workforce & administration staff

3.c Recommendations

Private Budget Holders Managers & Entrepreneurs Politicians

Act consistently in private, business and public matters – and just start today

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A European Vision

„We believe that this continent should commit itself to achieving the goal,

before half of the century is out, of using solely renewable energies and

living in a sustainable way on Earth."The European Parliament, the European Commission, the Head of States of the European Union, the Party Leaders of the Member States – December 2010

Get inspired by a fascinating vision– for yourself, our children, nature and mankind

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Conclusion

Contact:Kristian Petrick

Factor CO2 Ennova+34 93 272 38 48

kpetrick@factorCO2.com

Thank you for your attention!

“Europe 100% renewable in 2050” is a realistic vision – just spread the word!