ESN_120229

ESN Analyser Investment Research

Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)

ESN Analyser Investment Research

29 February 2012

ESN Top Picks Roadshows Corporate Events RECOMMENDATION CHANGES Bayer (Upgrade: Accumulate from Hold) Upgrade to Accumulate Legrand (Initiation of Coverage: Reduce from Initiation) A quality investment but an entry price below EUR24 D'Ieteren (Downgrade: Accumulate from Buy) FY11: great results, subdued outlook BLUE CHIPS COMPANY NEWS Accor (Hold) Initial changes in strategy for China Bayer (Accumulate) Upgrade to Accumulate Bilfinger Berger (Hold) Acquisition in the Service segment Casino Guichard-P (Buy) Information meeting: confident about key issues Cimpor (Rating Suspended) 4Q11 results comment Continental (Hold) Q4 2011 Preview Dassault Aviation (Buy) 2011 sales fell by 21% EDP Renováveis (Rating Suspended) FY11 results Fiat (Accumulate) New agreement with Sberbank in Russia Grifols SA (Hold) 2011 results affected by non recurrents and a higher tax rate Hochtief (Buy) 2011 results in line with recently revised guidance Holcim Ltd (Hold) 2011 earnings in line Legrand (Reduce) A quality investment but an entry price below EUR24 Luxottica (Accumulate) Luxottica FY 11 results: +7.3% top line, + 12% EBIT, +13% net income... as promised Peugeot SA (Buy) The PSA-GM alliance is taking shape Postbank (Accumulate) DBK’s stake increased to 93.7%, TP upped to EUR 32 Red Electrica De Espana (Accumulate) Good 2011 results and outlook for 2012 Saipem (Hold) Comments on Saipem meeting in Singapore STMicroelectronics (Hold) Bet on a quick turnaround at STE looks premature Vopak (Hold) FY11 at high end of range, FY12 guidance cautious

SMALL & MID CAPS COMPANY NEWS Acerinox (Buy) 4Q’11 results Arcadis (Buy) Higher estimates Arcadis Besi (Buy) 4Q results in line Bolsas y Mercados Espanoles SA (Buy) 2011 results preview: EUR152.4m (+2.3% Y/Y) 29.02.12 D'Ieteren (Accumulate) FY11: great results, subdued outlook DOCDATA (Buy) E-commerce strong, IAI weak, cautious FY12 outlook Elia (Accumulate) Good results - dividend up by 5% Ence (Buy) 4Q’11 results Fcc (Buy) Bulky provisions in cement and improving working capital Fourlis Holdings (Hold) Weak performance in 4Q11 Gesco (Buy) Capital increase of ~10% paves the way for acquisitions

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GFT Technologies AG (Buy) Q4 & FY 2011 Preview Kendrion (Buy) Strong top line in Q4 Luxempart (Accumulate) Additional investment of EUR 17m in Pescanova Martifer Sgps SA (Sell) 2011 results preview MLP (Accumulate) Q4 results and DPS slightly better than expected Morphosys (Buy) Q4’11 preview Nyrstar (Accumulate) Successful completion of the sale of ARA Sydney Prisa (Buy) Weak results, below forecasts. Royal BAM Group (Accumulate) Tebodin sold for EUR 145m Schuler AG (Buy) Q1 2011/12 results in line with expectations Sonae Capital (Reduce) 2011 results preview. Ten Cate (Buy) 11H2: All is well Ter Beke (Accumulate) FY11 results in line Tubacex (Buy) 4Q’11 results Xeikon (Buy) Weaker FY11 performance than expected

ESN Top Picks


Blue Chips Top Picks

Company Country Sector Idea Rating Price as of 28/02/2012

Target Price

Upside/Downside Entry date Entry price

Entry price (Div. Adj)

Total Return Entry To Date

AHOLD Netherlands Food & Drug Retailers Long Buy 10.46 11.50 10% 11/01/2012 10.36 10.36 1.0%

BNP PARIBAS France Banks Long Buy 36.62 55.00 50% 11/01/2012 29.58 29.58 23.8%

DEUTSCHE POST Germany Industrial Transportation & Motorways Long Buy 13.21 15.00 14% 11/01/2012 12.55 12.55 5.3%

FERROVIAL Spain Construction & Materials Long Buy 9.55 12.50 31% 11/01/2012 9.42 9.42 1.3%

FORTUM Finland Utilities Long Buy 18.35 23.00 25% 11/01/2012 16.24 15.24 20.4%

GALP ENERGIA Portugal Oil & Gas Producers Long Buy 13.02 18.70 44% 11/01/2012 12.79 12.79 1.8%

KERRY GROUP Ireland Food & Beverage Long Buy 31.95 36.00 13% 11/01/2012 29.17 28.95 10.4%

NORDEA Finland Banks Long Buy 7.24 7.80 8% 11/01/2012 6.14 6.14 17.9%

RYANAIR Ireland Airlines Long Accumulate 4.10 4.50 10% 11/01/2012 3.89 3.89 5.4%

TERNA Italy Utilities Long Buy 2.82 3.20 13% 11/01/2012 2.76 2.76 2.4%

UCB Belgium Healthcare Long Buy 30.72 39.00 27% 11/01/2012 32.51 32.51 -5.5%

source: ESN Members’ estimates

M/S Caps Top Picks

Company Country Sector Idea Rating Price as of 28/02/2012

Target Price

Upside/ Downside Entry date Entry

price

Entry price (Div. Adj)

Total Return Entry To Date

ATOS ORIGIN France Software & Computer Services Long Buy 42.79 50.00 17% 12/01/2012 34.95 34.95 22.4%

CFAO France Industrial Engineering Long Accumulate 29.77 29.50 -1% 19/01/2012 25.09 25.09 18.7% CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUX. DE FERROCARRILES

Spain Industrial Transportation & Motorways Long Buy 414.95 539.24 30% 12/01/2012 380.50 380.50 9.1%

DIA Spain Food & Drug Retailers Long Buy 3.75 4.51 20% 16/02/2012 3.53 3.53 6.1%

DCC Ireland General Industrials Long Buy 19.36 22.80 18% 12/01/2012 18.50 18.50 4.6%

EVS Belgium Electronic & Electrical Equipment Long Accumulate 41.00 51.00 24% 12/01/2012 38.50 38.50 6.5%

GAMELOFT France Software & Computer Services Long Accumulate 4.96 5.90 19% 12/01/2012 4.95 4.95 0.2%

PIAGGIO Italy Automobiles & Parts Long Buy 2.18 2.40 10% 12/01/2012 1.77 1.77 22.8%

POSTNL Netherlands Industrial Transportation & Motorways Long Accumulate 4.46 5.60 26% 12/01/2012 2.76 2.76 61.5%

RHOEN-KLINIKUM Germany Healthcare Long Buy 14.68 22.00 50% 12/01/2012 14.96 14.96 -1.9%

SONAECOM Portugal Telecommunications Long Buy 1.23 1.70 39% 12/01/2012 1.27 1.27 -3.5%

TIKKURILA Finland Chemicals Long Accumulate 14.92 16.30 9% 12/01/2012 13.91 13.18 13.2%

source: ESN Members’ estimates

This selection of stocks is not intended to provide a recommended portfolio; therefore there is no point in comparing its performance with any benchmark. The performance of each stock has to be considered independently. Risk factors are taken into account when selecting individual stocks but the risk profile of the selection as a whole is not considered. The approach used to select each investment idea is opportunistic with an absolute return target.

Roadshows


Roadshows & Company Visits in ESN for the next two weeks

SUBJECT LOCATION EVENT DATE AKKA Technologies Frankfurt Cross-country Company Roadshow 29/02/2012 Bank of Ireland New York Company visit 29/02/2012 HERA Helsinki Cross-country Company Roadshow 29/02/2012 CFE Brussels Local Company Roadshow 29/02/2012 Wärtsilä Helsinki Company visit 29/02/2012 Ipsos Paris Local Company Roadshow 01/03/2012 Banimmo Brussels Local Company Roadshow 01/03/2012 Havas Paris Local Company Roadshow 02/03/2012 Post NL Madrid Cross-country Company Roadshow 02/03/2012 Vilmorin Paris Local Company Roadshow 02/03/2012 Faurecia Lyon Local Company Roadshow 05/03/2012 Ackermans & van Haaren Brussels Local Company Roadshow 05/03/2012 Eiffage Paris Local Company Roadshow 06/03/2012 MOBOTIX Management Roadshow Zurich Cross-country Company Roadshow 06/03/2012 Deceuninck Brussels Local Company Roadshow 06/03/2012 BESI London Local Company Roadshow 07/03/2012 GL events Paris Local Company Roadshow 07/03/2012 SCHULER AG Paris Cross-country Company Roadshow 07/03/2012 Unit4 Zurich Local Company Roadshow 07/03/2012 Bois Sauvage Brussels Local Company Roadshow 07/03/2012 ASM International Amsterdam Local Company Roadshow 08/03/2012 BESI Zurich Local Company Roadshow 08/03/2012 Smurfit Kappa New York Company visit 08/03/2012 Jacquet Metal Service Paris Local Company Roadshow 09/03/2012 Wessanen Amsterdam Local Company Roadshow 09/03/2012 Barco Luxembourg Cross-country Company Roadshow 12/03/2012 Atenor Brussels Local Company Roadshow 13/03/2012 Eiffage Paris Local Company Roadshow 14/03/2012 Hochtief Amsterdam Cross-country Company Roadshow 14/03/2012 Steria Geneva Cross-country Company Roadshow 14/03/2012 ASM International Zurich Local Company Roadshow 15/03/2012 Bolsas y Mercados Españoles London Cross-country Company Roadshow 15/03/2012

Source: ESN Members

Corporate Events


Corporate Events today Company

Bloomberg code Date Event Type Description

ACS ACS SM 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results ALTEN ATE FP 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results AZKOYEN AZK SM 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results BANESTO BTO SM 29/02/12 AGM Full year 2011 AGM - 1st call BESI BESI NA 29/02/12 Results Q4 2011 Results

BESI NA 29/02/12 Results Q4 2011 Earnings conference call / Webcast BOLSAS Y MERCADOS ESPANOBME SM 29/02/12 Results Q4 2011 Results BONDUELLE BON FP 29/02/12 Results Interim 2012 Results CAMPOFRIO CFG SM 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results CEGID CGD FP 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results D'IETEREN DIE BB 29/02/12 Analyst Meeting Full year 2011 Analyst meeting

DIE BB 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Press conference DOCDATA DOCD NA 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results DSM DSM NA 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results

DSM NA 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Earnings conference call EASYJET PLC EZJ LN 29/02/12 Ex Dividend Date Special ex-dividend date - proposed GBP 0.35

EZJ LN 29/02/12 Ex Dividend Date Full year 2011 Ex-dividend date - proposed GBP 0.11EDP RENOVÁVEIS EDPR PL 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results ELIA ELI BB 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results ENDESA ELE SM 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results

ELE SM 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Webcast FOURLIS HOLDINGS FOYRK GA 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Earnings conference call

FOYRK GA 29/02/12 Analyst Meeting Full year 2011 Analysts brief ing GLANBIA GLB ID 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results HOCHTIEF HOT GY 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Press conference

HOT GY 29/02/12 Analyst Meeting Full year 2011 Analyst meeting HOT GY 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results

HOLCIM Ltd HOLN VX 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results HOLN VX 29/02/12 Analyst Meeting Full year 2011 Analyst meeting HOLN VX 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Press conference

IPSOS IPS FP 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results IPS FP 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Earnings conference call

KENDRION KENDR NA 29/02/12 Analyst Meeting Full year 2011 Analyst meeting KENDR NA 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results

LUXOTTICA LUX IM 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Earnings conference call / Webcast MELIA HOTELS INTERNATIONALMEL SM 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results MERCK MRK GR 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results

MRK GR 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Press conference MRK GR 29/02/12 Analyst Meeting Full year 2011 Analyst meeting

MLP MLP GR 29/02/12 Analyst Meeting Full year 2011 Analyst meeting / Webcast MLP GR 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Press conference / Webcast MLP GR 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Preliminary results

NATRA NAT SM 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results NH HOTELES NHH SM 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Earnings conference call

NHH SM 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results NORBERT DENTRESSANGLE GND FP 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results OBRASCON HUARTE LAIN OHL SM 29/02/12 Analyst Meeting Full year 2011 Results presentation / Webcast

OHL SM 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results PROSEGUR PSG SM 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results PUNCH GRAPHIX NV PGX NA 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results REPSOL YPF REP SM 29/02/12 Results Q4 2011 Results SACYR VALLEHERMOSO SYV SM 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results

SYV SM 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Earnings conference call SCHULER AG SCUN GR 29/02/12 Results Q1 2012 Results SONAE CAPITAL SONC PL 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results SONAE INDUSTRIA SONI PL 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results TECNICAS REUNIDAS TRE SM 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results TER BEKE TERB BB 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results TRANSICS TRAN BB 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results VILMORIN RIN FP 29/02/12 Results Interim 2012 Results VISCOFAN VIS SM 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results VOPAK VPK NA 29/02/12 Analyst Meeting Full year 2011 Analyst meeting / Webcast

VPK NA 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results WAVIN N.V. WAVIN NA 29/02/12 Results Full year 2011 Results Source: Precise

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Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page

Accor France/Hotels, Travel & Tourism Analyser

Accor (Hold)

Hold

26.11closing price as of 28/02/2012

26.00 Target Price unchanged

Recommendation unchanged

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ACCP.PA/AC FP

Market capitalisation (EURm) 5,920Current N° of shares (m) 227Free float 77% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,155,816Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 30Price high 12 mth (EUR) 33.49Price low 12 mth (EUR) 17.03Abs. perf. 1 mth 9.94%Abs. perf. 3 mth 35.82%Abs. perf. 12 mth -23.39%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 5,948 6,100 6,178EBITDA (m) 880 934 960EBITDA margin 14.8% 15.3% 15.5%EBIT (m) 446 531 559EBIT margin 7.5% 8.7% 9.0%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 280 299 329ROCE 8.1% 9.1% 10.0%Net debt/(cash) (m) 730 133 (245)Net Debt/Equity 0.2 0.0 -0.1Debt/EBITDA 0.8 0.1 -0.3Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 6.3 8.1 9.8EV/Sales 1.3 0.8 0.9EV/EBITDA 8.7 5.1 5.9EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.7 5.1 5.9EV/EBIT 17.2 8.9 10.2P/E (adj.) 27.0 15.7 18.9P/BV 2.1 1.2 1.5OpFCF yield 6.5% 6.8% 8.1%Dividend yield 2.4% 2.4% 2.8%EPS (adj.) 1.23 1.25 1.38BVPS 16.09 16.53 17.31DPS 0.62 0.62 0.73

Initial changes in strategy for China The facts: following Denis Hennequin’s arrival, the group is thinking about a new strategy for China that would enable it to achieve its local ambitions. Consequently, Accor announced the launch of the tailor-made Mei Jue brand yesterday. This is an adaptation of the Grand Mercure brand for China (brand signature written out in Chinese, catering adapted to Chinese specificities, specific services: tai-chi sessions, etc.). Our analysis: we know that the group’s offensive strategy in economic terms was only partially successful with a standardised Ibis concept which was rolled out too slowly compared with the dramatic expansion of chains such as Jin Jiang, Home Inns and Green Tree, etc. Changes are afoot since the arrival of Denis Hennequin whose watchword is flexibility, a quality that is particularly important from an economic point of view when dealing with local customers. Remember that development targets in China involve a hotel base of 400 vs the current 114 (group total at end-2011: 4,426 hotels). This would entail a doubling of Sofitel’s base (30 Sofitel in China in the long run) and a considerable expansion of Pullman from 10 to 60 hotels. Conclusion & Action: last September’s appointment of a Chinese CEO, San Shih, should further strengthen Accor’s adaptation to the local market. New proposals are expected in April.

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ACCOR Stoxx Travel & Leisure (Rebased)Source: Factset

Analyst:

Annick Thévenon, CM - CIC Securities [email protected]

+33 1 45 96 77 38



Bayer Germany/Healthcare Analyser

Bayer (Accumulate)

Accumulate

55.84 closing price as of 28/02/2012

62.00 50.00from Target Price: EUR

from Hold

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg BAYG.DE/BAYN GR


Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 35,088 36,528 37,459EBITDA (m) 6,286 6,918 7,461EBITDA margin 17.9% 18.9% 19.9%EBIT (m) 2,730 4,149 4,854EBIT margin 7.8% 11.4% 13.0%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 3,465 3,997 4,108ROCE 5.0% 7.7% 9.0%Net debt/(cash) (m) 8,993 9,909 8,013Net Debt/Equity 0.5 0.5 0.4Debt/EBITDA 1.4 1.4 1.1Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 6.2 8.8 9.3EV/Sales 1.7 1.6 1.6EV/EBITDA 9.6 8.2 8.1EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.6 8.2 8.1EV/EBIT 22.2 13.7 12.4P/E (adj.) 13.2 10.2 11.2P/BV 2.4 2.1 2.2OpFCF yield 9.3% 8.4% 7.1%Dividend yield 2.7% 3.0% 3.1%EPS (adj.) 4.19 4.83 4.97BVPS 22.85 23.30 25.25DPS 1.50 1.65 1.74

Upgrade to Accumulate The facts: We raise our PT to EUR62 and upgrade the stock To Accumulate. Our analysis: Reassuring FY12 guidance: The Q4’11 underlying (u.) EBITDA fell slightly short of consensus (by 2%), as the profitability at MaterialScience (BMS) came significantly below expectations. However, BAY’s initial guidance (sales at EUR37bn and slight improvement in u. EBITDA) roughly met the FY12 consensus. This was quite reassuring to us given our belief that a pronounced slowdown at BMS could have led to a bleak 2012 outlook, emphasized by the negative impact of intense launch activity on Healthcare (BHC) EBITDA margin. Instead BAY expects flat sales and underlying EBITDA at BMS and slight increase in BHC’s u. EBITDA, despite increasing R&D to further support midterm growth prospects. Worries around MaterialScience could continue to weight on investor sentiment BMS u. EBITDA margin dropped from 12.6% in Q3’11 to 4.1% in Q4’11. The slowdown in demand (6% QoQ sales decline), combined with destocking and raw material prices increase depressed BMS margin to a much larger extent than anticipated. However, prices increases will kick-in already in the next quarter. Beside, as some TDI production capacities went off line in Asia, we might see a more favourable situation on the supply side. We note that BAY’s guidance was calculated using a crude oil price assumption of USD110/bbl, which look optimistic these days. However BMS’ CEO stated that the market situation is currently better compared to what was seen at the time the FY12 guidance was compiled. …but the impressing Healthcare pipeline bodes well for the midterm… With Xarelto, Alpharadin, VEGF Trap Eye, and Regorafenib, BAY could have four potential blockbusters filed by the end of FY12. This should largely over compensate the decline of Yasmin and Betaseron going forward. Moreover, the Consumer Health segment (42% of BHC) is solid (+7% in FY11) and reported record 24% u. EBITDA margin. …while numerous new launches at CropScience will also be supportive…: The guidance mid single digit increase in both sales and u. EBITDA reflects BAY confidence. Importantly, with the innovative products launched in 2011 and to be introduced in until 2015, BAY expects combined peak sales of c. EUR2bn. Model adjustments & valuation: As we move way from our recessionary scenario, we have adjusted our estimates quite substantially. Our updated SOP derives our new PT of EUR62. We upgrade to Accumulate. At a current PE’12 of 11.2x, the share price looks attractive to us. Conclusion & Action: Uncertainty at MaterialScience and a transition year at Healthcare might not urge investors to get into the story now. However BAY’s sound pipeline in both Healthcare and CropScience should support solid growth in sales and earnings from 2012 on, while the group 36% exposure to the emerging markets provides attractive growth prospects for BAY underlying business. BAY’s balance sheet is almost as robust as its pipeline. As we move away from our pessimistic recessionary scenario, we have lifted our estimates quite substantially and set our new PT at EUR62. At PE’12 of 11x, we would accumulate BAY. For further details, please refer to the note we published today

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BAYER DAX30 (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders:

Analyst(s):

Edouard Aubery, Equinet Bank [email protected]

+49 69 5899 7439



Bilfinger Berger Germany/Construction & Materials Analyser

Bilfinger Berger (Hold)

Hold




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg GBFG.DE/GBF GY

Market capitalisation (EURm) 3,421Current N° of shares (m) 46Free float 87% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 234,191Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 15Price high 12 mth (EUR) 76.64Price low 12 mth (EUR) 52.18Abs. perf. 1 mth 5.09%Abs. perf. 3 mth 17.50%Abs. perf. 12 mth 22.33%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 8,007 8,209 8,335EBITDA (m) 508 526 571EBITDA margin 6.3% 6.4% 6.8%EBIT (m) 343 361 426EBIT margin 4.3% 4.4% 5.1%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 284 394 316ROCE 27.0% 22.9% 14.0%Net debt/(cash) (m) (265) (575) (847)Net Debt/Equity -0.1 -0.3 -0.4Debt/EBITDA -0.5 -1.1 -1.5Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 38.8 40.2 (114.2)EV/Sales 0.4 0.3 0.3EV/EBITDA 5.6 5.3 5.1EV/EBITDA (adj.) 5.6 5.3 5.1EV/EBIT 8.3 7.7 6.8P/E (adj.) 9.8 7.7 10.8P/BV 1.5 1.7 1.8OpFCF yield 8.8% 0.0% 13.1%Dividend yield 3.4% 4.6% 4.9%EPS (adj.) 6.43 8.55 6.87BVPS 40.82 38.85 41.46DPS 2.50 3.40 3.66

Acquisition in the Service segment The facts: Bilfinger Berger announced the acquisition of Tebodin, one of the leading European providers of consulting and engineering services from Royal BAM Group. The company, which generates an annual output volume of EUR 225m and has 3,200 employees. The purchase price amounts to EUR 145m. The acquisition is subject to approval from the relevant antitrust authorities. According to Bilfinger, Tebodin will serve as the basis for the establishment of a new Subgroup at Bilfinger Berger in the area of engineering and technologies. The company will be allocated to the Industrial Services reporting segment. Tebodin offers a broad range of engineering services in various markets. These include general and detailed planning of plants as well as project management, procurement and construction supervision. Tebodin's client list includes more than 150 renowned international companies in the process industry, primarily in the oil and gas sector as well as clients in the chemicals industry, the energy production sector and in environmental technology. The regional focus is on Europe (two thirds of output), the Middle East (around 30%) and Asia-Pacific (around 5%). In addition, Bilfinger announced a newly-founded joint venture with Russian power plant outfitter Tyazhmash in order to benefit from expected substantial investments in the modernization of the Russian energy supply network. Our analysis: We understand the Tebodin EBIT margin is around 7% and that there is no debt included in the deal. Hence, the acquisition multiple is around 9x EV/EBIT which seems to include a certain strategic premium for the business. Given that Tebodin seems to offer a new field of activity as project manager mainly for the oil, gas, chemicals and environmental industries, we can follow the management’s assumption that it will be very positive for Bilfinger from a strategic point of view. In addition, the exposure to the Middle East also fits well into Bilfinger’s geographical growth plans. Tyazhmash, we reckon, is a start in the Russian market with limited equity investment involved aimed at participating in the infrastructure investments needed in this area going forward. Conclusion & Action: Overall, the acquisition of Tebodin, at a first glance, looks like a strategically sound decision which comes at a certain price premium.

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BILFINGER BERGER Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Cevian Capital 13%;

Analyst(s):

Ingbert Faust, CEFA, Equinet Bank [email protected]

+49 69 58997 410



Casino Guichard-P France/Food & Drug Retailers Analyser

Casino Guichard-P (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg CASP.PA/CO FP


Key financials (EUR) 12/09 12/10e 12/11eSales (m) 26,757 29,078 34,462EBITDA (m) 1,827 2,026 2,371EBITDA margin 6.8% 7.0% 6.9%EBIT (m) 1,173 1,315 1,530EBIT margin 4.4% 4.5% 4.4%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 583 529 556ROCE 7.5% 7.9% 7.8%Net debt/(cash) (m) 4,247 3,995 5,738Net Debt/Equity 0.5 0.5 0.7Debt/EBITDA 2.3 2.0 2.4Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 5.3 5.6 4.7EV/Sales 0.5 0.5 0.5EV/EBITDA 7.7 7.4 6.7EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.6 7.5 6.7EV/EBIT 12.1 11.4 10.4P/E (adj.) 12.2 15.7 13.3P/BV 1.1 1.2 1.0OpFCF yield 14.1% 9.9% 6.3%Dividend yield 3.7% 3.8% 4.1%EPS (adj.) 5.14 4.65 4.89BVPS 57.80 60.10 62.13DPS 2.65 2.78 2.99

Information meeting: confident about key issues The facts: The Casino group's 2011 earnings were more or less in line with forecasts (see Casino fax of yesterday morning). Note that Vindémia's UOI fell by some 10m euros and Casino's stake in GPA was lowered from 43.1% to 40% (equity swap).

Our analysis: The recovery of Franprix-Leader Price's profit margin in H2-2011 (see table below) bodes well for 2012. The recovery of Franprix-Leader Price's earnings confirms that the company's operating margin reached a turning point (and a low point) in H1-2011 and suggests a further improvement in profitability in H1-2012e (estimated normative margin at between 4.5% and 5% vs 2.5% in H1-2011, i.e. "built-in growth" of around EUR45m of UOI). Monoprix: estimated value of the 50% held by Galeries Lafayette (in EURm) As % Operating margin In EURm ------ Franprix - Leader Price ------ 2009rt 2010 2011 H1-10 H2-10 H1-11 H2-11 Casino Fr. 4.0 3.9 3.7 Sales 2 015 2 011 2 259 2 151 FP / LP 6.2 4.1 3.7 UOI 116 51 58 106 Monoprix 7.0 7.3 6.5 Op m �(%) 5.8 2.5 2.6 4.9

Source: Casino, CM-CIC Securities

What about Monoprix? Monoprix has repeated that Casino is a strategic asset. To support its valuation, it stressed that global retailers are trading on 2011 EV/EBITDA multiples of 6.4x and retailers in mature countries on a multiple of 5.3x. Casino also indicated that it does not believe in the plan defined by Philippe Houzé to reach EBITDA of EUR500m within a few years, which is a target already set in the past and never reached. Galeries Lafayette has taken the initiative in a possible unwinding of the partnership highlights Casino. The agreement signed provided for a rotating presidency of Monoprix (lasting for three years) as from March 2012 with a first candidate nominated by Casino. It seems that Galeries Lafayette has suggested freezing the options for three more years (so as to avoid the rotating presidency?) Casino agreed to this "freeze" for only one more year. We already know the rest... Monoprix: estimated value of the 50% held by Galeries Lafayette (in EURm)

2011 EBITDA multiple 6.0 6�5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 2011 EBITDA 363 363 363 363 363 363 363 Enterprise value 2 178 2 360 2 541 2 723 2 904 3 086 3 267 Value of equity 1 590 1 770 1 950 2 130 2 320 2 500 2 680 Value of 50% of capital 795 885 975 1 065 1 160 1 250 1 340

Source: CM-CIC Securities estimates

What about Pao de Açucar? Casino has repeated its confidence in GPA's takeover, its intention to comply with the agreement, and particularly the option for Abilio Diniz to remain Chairman of the Board if he so wishes, and its satisfaction with GPA's outlook both in food and specialised distribution (Viavarejo). The Brazilian press is discussing a possible arbitrage: GPA Food would fall to Casino and Viavarejo to Abilio Diniz (with a balancing payment). Casino: weight of emerging countries in 2005, 2011 and 2011 pro forma

In EURbn 2005 2011 2011 pf1 2011 pf2 Sales 22.8 34.4 40.3 46.5 Share of emerging countries in sales 16% 43% 52% 58% UOI 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.1 Share of emerging countries in UOI 10% 50% 61% 68%

Note: pf1 = at 2012 scope pro rata temporis and pf2 = at 2012 scope on a full-year basis - Source: Casino

Conclusion & Action: The management showed confidence in the continued recovery of Leader Price, GPA's takeover on 22 June 2012 and the soundness of its arguments in the Monoprix case. We are maintaining our Buy recommendation for Casino and will refine our estimates at a later date.

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CASINO GUICHARD-P Stoxx Food & Drug Retailers (Rebased)Source: Factset

Analyst(s):

Christian Devismes, CM - CIC Securities [email protected]

+33 1 45 96 77 63



Cimpor Portugal/Construction & Materials Analyser

Cimpor (Rating Suspended)

Rating Suspended



Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg CPR.LS/CPR PL

Market capitalisation (EURm) 3,373Current N° of shares (m) 672Free float 16% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 321,151Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 2Price high 12 mth (EUR) 5.49Price low 12 mth (EUR) 4.59Abs. perf. 1 mth -0.06%Abs. perf. 3 mth 4.89%Abs. perf. 12 mth 0.10%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 2,316 2,445 2,622EBITDA (m) 630 655 713EBITDA margin 27.2% 26.8% 27.2%EBIT (m) 409 426 475EBIT margin 17.7% 17.4% 18.1%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 242 256 291ROCE 7.0% 7.2% 7.6%Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,534 1,718 1,819Net Debt/Equity 0.7 0.8 0.8Debt/EBITDA 2.4 2.6 2.6Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 13.4 10.2 11.2EV/Sales 2.0 2.1 1.9EV/EBITDA 7.5 7.7 7.0EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.5 7.7 7.0EV/EBIT 11.5 11.9 10.5P/E (adj.) 14.1 14.0 11.6P/BV 1.6 1.8 1.6OpFCF yield 11.8% 12.2% 14.0%Dividend yield 3.9% 4.1% 4.3%EPS (adj.) 0.36 0.38 0.43BVPS 3.17 2.95 3.16DPS 0.20 0.20 0.22

4Q11 results comment The facts: Cimpor released its fourth quarter and full year results yesterday before the opening. The company announced for 4Q11 a turnover of EUR 534m, EBITDA of EUR 137m and net income of EUR 17m. In what concerns FY2011, turnover reached EUR 2,275m, EBITDA EUR 616m and net income EUR 198m. Our analysis: The last quarter of 2011 recorded a decrease of EBITDA against 3Q11 and on a year-on-year basis, being also the lowest since 1Q10. This worst performance was related by poor fundamentals in the Portuguese market, kiln stoppages in Brazil that prevented additional volumes to go to the market and lower demand in China. In the full year, the company recorded a 10.2% rise in depreciations and provisions mostly explained by the EUR 10m impairment charge coming from Spain and tax-related cases provisions in Brazil (EUR 8m). Net financial deteriorated in 2011, reaching EUR 80.9m against EUR 60.6m in the previous year, on the back of wider interest spreads from debt secured in 2007 and 2008 and rolled in 2010 and 2011. This was partially compensated by higher returns from cash and deposits. Finally, the income tax charge was down but the rate rose (+ 1.6 p.p.), following increasing results from higher tax jurisdictions. Investment totalled EUR 294.5m in 2011 or 80% of the amount recorded in the previous year. Investments were mainly target at expanding capacity (e.g. acquisition of 100% of CINAC and a new mill in Matola in Mozambique, along with the expansion and revamping at Cezarina and Campo Formoso, Brazil). Net debt stood at EUR 1,623m in the end of the year, increasing EUR 61m from 2010. Net debt/EBITDA reached 2.6x, remaining bellow covenants. We recall that S&P reaffirmed Cimpor’s credit rating in 2011, detaching it from the Portuguese sovereign risk. Liquidity stood at EUR 995m at the end of 2011, with cash and deposits of EUR 610m and guaranteed lines at the holding of EUR 385m. Conclusion & Action: 2011 was a particularly difficult year for Cimpor, with the Arab Spring movement hitting hard Tunisia and especially Egypt. The poor economic performance in Iberia also did not help, namely in what concerns Portugal. On the other hand, Brazil continued to present itself as the cornerstone of the company’s operating margin, while Mozambique and China were the other two stars of the year. Despite the hardships of the year, the truth is that Cimpor managed to sustain EBITDA relatively well, while the bottom line was hit by provisions and higher funding costs.

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CIMPOR Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Camargo Corrêa 33%; Votorantim 21%; Manuel Fino 11%;

Analyst(s):

Carlos Jesus, Caixa Banco de Investimento [email protected]

+351 21 389 6812

EURm 4Q11 3Q11 4Q10 YoY QoQ 2011 2010 YoYSales 534.3 591.5 558.4 -4.3% -9.7% 2,275.3 2,239.4 1.6%EBITDA 136.8 163.6 154.7 -11.6% -16.4% 616.0 629.8 -2.2%margin 25.6% 26.8% 26.7% 27.1% 27.2%D&A -54.6 -43.5 -216.4Provisions -2.1 -0.8 -4.3EBIT 67.4 106.9 110.4 -38.9% -36.9% 372.8 409.1 -8.9%margin 12.6% 17.5% 19.0% 16.4% 17.7%Net f in. -31.8 -32.5 -12.6 -80.9 -60.6Taxes -20.6 -21.7 -21.4 -85.7 -96.8Minorities 2.4 -4.2 -5.0 -8.0 -9.9Net income 17.3 48.6 71.4 -75.8% -64.4% 198.1 241.8 -18.1%margin 3.2% 8.0% 12.3% 8.7% 10.4%



Continental Germany/Automobiles & Parts Analyser

Continental (Hold)

Hold




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg CONG.DE/CON GR


Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 26,047 29,913 29,129EBITDA (m) 3,507 4,105 3,827EBITDA margin 13.5% 13.7% 13.1%EBIT (m) 1,855 2,365 2,133EBIT margin 7.1% 7.9% 7.3%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 341 1,665 1,430ROCE 8.4% 9.8% 8.7%Net debt/(cash) (m) 7,519 7,008 6,095Net Debt/Equity 1.2 0.9 0.7Debt/EBITDA 2.1 1.7 1.6Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 5.0 6.2 6.8EV/Sales 0.8 0.6 0.7EV/EBITDA 5.8 4.3 5.4EV/EBITDA (adj.) 5.6 4.2 5.4EV/EBIT 10.9 7.4 9.7P/E (adj.) 34.7 5.8 9.5P/BV 2.0 1.3 1.7OpFCF yield 4.4% 5.1% 8.9%Dividend yield 0.0% 2.2% 1.9%EPS (adj.) 1.70 8.32 7.15BVPS 29.30 37.28 41.14DPS 0.00 1.50 1.27

Q4 2011 Preview The facts: Continental will report its Q4 & FY 2011 results on Thursday, 1. March 2012. A conference for analysts and investors is scheduled for 11:30 CET the same day in Hanover. Our analysis: Revenues in Q4 2011 should have risen by 7% yoy to EUR 7.4bn. Drivers of growth should have been higher car production numbers as well as increased prices for tyres. Adjusted EBIT should have been flat yoy at EUR 717m. While higher volumes should have been beneficiary, we expect the rising raw material costs to have burdened the result somewhat. Also, passenger tire business could have been impacted negatively by the mild winter conditions in Europe during November and December 2011. EBIT should have decreased by 5% to EUR 533m, while the EPS should have benefitted from an improved financial result as well as a lower tax rate. Overall, we believe that our estimates are relatively conservative and leave some room for a positive surprise. Given that the overall economic environment has improved recently, we expect Conti to guide for an at least stable result in FY 2012. Our estimates, which were based on a recessionary scenario will most likely turn out to be too conservative and will be revised after the reporting. Conclusion & Action: We will review our target price and recommendation after the FY 2011 reporting.

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CONTINENTAL Stoxx Automobiles & Parts (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Schaeffler (directly and indirectly) 75%;

Analyst(s):

Tim Schuldt, CFA, Equinet Bank [email protected]

+49 69 5899 7433

Quarterly development

Euro m Q4 2011e Q4 2010 % YoY

Revenues 7,415 6,903 7%

Adj. EBIT 717 727 -1%

EBIT 533 559 -5%

EBT 434 393 10%

Net Profit 289 213 36%

EPS 1.45 1.07 36%

Source: Continental, equinet Research



Dassault Aviation France/Aerospace & Defense Analyser

Dassault Aviation (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg AVMD.PA/AM FP

Market capitalisation (EURm) 7,095Current N° of shares (m) 10Free float 3% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 141Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 0Price high 12 mth (EUR) 725.00Price low 12 mth (EUR) 546.01Abs. perf. 1 mth 17.74%Abs. perf. 3 mth 25.12%Abs. perf. 12 mth 11.40%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 4,187 3,400 3,750EBITDA (m) 910 780 775EBITDA margin 21.7% 22.9% 20.7%EBIT (m) 591 430 450EBIT margin 14.1% 12.6% 12.0%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 267 385 430ROCE 80.9% 70.9% 63.7%Net debt/(cash) (m) (3,181) (3,248) (3,372)Net Debt/Equity -0.7 -0.7 -0.7Debt/EBITDA -3.5 -4.2 -4.4Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 34.1 78.0 155.0EV/Sales 0.3 0.2 0.5EV/EBITDA 1.3 0.9 2.3EV/EBITDA (adj.) 1.3 0.9 2.3EV/EBIT 2.0 1.6 4.0P/E (adj.) 22.8 15.0 16.5P/BV 1.4 1.2 1.4OpFCF yield 12.5% 2.9% 3.2%Dividend yield 1.4% 1.5% 1.6%EPS (adj.) 26.41 38.02 42.47BVPS 435.56 463.78 495.88DPS 9.80 10.37 11.36

2011 sales fell by 21% The facts: yesterday the company published sales that fell by 21%. Our analysis: the 21% drop in 2011 sales was not particularly surprising, even though it was greater than our estimates. We were expecting a fall of 19%, i.e. 2011 sales of EUR3,400m. This decrease can mainly be explained by the lower number of business aircraft delivered by the aircraft manufacturer over the past year (63 aircraft compared with 95 in 2010), bearing in mind that the number of Rafales delivered to the French army is expected to be stable at 11. According to our estimates, the civil activities continued to ensure the majority of group sales (72% of sales vs 77% in 2010). The very slight rebound in orders during the first nine months of 2011 seems to suggest a recovery in deliveries and sales in 2012. We are expecting a 13.5% rise in sales next year which will mainly be associated with a greater number of business aircraft that are set to be delivered (we are expecting 80 deliveries). The number of Rafales delivered should remain stable at 11. On the other hand, this figure could be revised downwards as of 2013 if new budgetary restriction measures - as some are expecting - are requested from the army after the next presidential and general elections. Nevertheless, the aircraft manufacturer hopes to more than offset a possible revision in the number of Rafales deliveries intended for the French army by high export sales. Conclusion & Action: the signature of new export contracts for Rafales is still the main catalyst on this stock in the short term. We are confirming our Buy recommendation and target price of EUR750.

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DASSAULT AVIATION Stoxx Aerospace & Defense (Rebased)Source: Factset

Analyst:

Harald Liberge-Dondoux, CM - CIC Securities [email protected]

+33 1 45 96 98 12



EDP Renováveis Portugal/Utilities Analyser

EDP Renováveis (Rating Suspended)

Rating Suspended



Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg EDPR.LS/EDPR PL

Market capitalisation (EURm) 3,524Current N° of shares (m) 872Free float 23% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 808,547Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 4Price high 12 mth (EUR) 5.25Price low 12 mth (EUR) 3.89Abs. perf. 1 mth -8.18%Abs. perf. 3 mth -3.35%Abs. perf. 12 mth -7.13%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 948 1,099 1,201EBITDA (m) 713 804 910EBITDA margin 75.2% 73.2% 75.7%EBIT (m) 290 394 460EBIT margin 30.6% 35.8% 38.3%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 80 142 153ROCE 2.8% 3.5% 3.9%Net debt/(cash) (m) 4,754 5,460 5,807Net Debt/Equity 0.9 1.0 1.0Debt/EBITDA 6.7 6.8 6.4Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 4.1 3.7 3.6EV/Sales 9.0 8.7 7.8EV/EBITDA 12.0 11.9 10.3EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12.0 11.9 10.3EV/EBIT 29.4 24.3 20.3P/E (adj.) 47.1 29.0 23.0P/BV 0.7 0.8 0.6OpFCF yield 13.5% 8.6% 19.7%Dividend yield 0.0% 0.5% 0.8%EPS (adj.) 0.09 0.16 0.18BVPS 6.04 6.18 6.33DPS 0.00 0.02 0.03

FY11 results The facts: EDP Renováveis released the FY11 results this morning, before the market opening. A conference call will be held at 15h CET. The results were in line with consensus at the EBITDA level (EUR 798m estimated) but net profit was below (EUR 117m estimated). Our analysis: In 2011 revenues grew by 13% to EUR 1.069m while EBITDA improved by 12% to EUR 801m

EUR m FY10 FY11 Var%Gross Profit 948 1,069 13% Portugal 140 139 -1% Spain 343 370 8% RoE 79 126 61% USA 382 415 9% Other 4 20 nmEBITDA 712 801 12% EBITDA/Gross profit 75% 75% Portugal 116 111 -4% Spain 274 286 4% RoE 71 94 32% USA 288 270 -6% Other -37 40 nmDepreciation & Provisions 423 453 7%EBIT 290 348 20%Financial results -169 -229 35%EBT 121 119 -1%Income taxes -38 -28 -26%Minorities 3 2 n.aNet profit 80 89 11%

We recall that EDPR had already disclosed the operating data for 2011, delivering an increase of 17% in the electricity generated, supported by the expansion of the installed capacity with a stable load factor (29%). The average selling price decreased by 1% from EUR 58.4/MWh to EUR 57.7/MWh, mostly due to the increase of the weight of the electricity output which has a lower price (-4% YoY). Conclusion & Action: Currently we have EDPR with “Rating Suspended”

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EDP RENOVÁVEIS PSI20 (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: EDP 78%;

Analyst(s):

Helena Barbosa, Caixa Banco de Investimento [email protected]

+351 21 389 6831



Fiat Italy/Automobiles & Parts Analyser

Fiat (Accumulate)

Accumulate




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg FIA.MI/F IM

Market capitalisation (EURm) 5,316Current N° of shares (m) 1,196Free float 64% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 33,562,316Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 180Price high 12 mth (EUR) 7.72Price low 12 mth (EUR) 3.31Abs. perf. 1 mth -0.67%Abs. perf. 3 mth 24.44%Abs. perf. 12 mth -33.53%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 35,880 58,950 76,095EBITDA (m) 3,838 7,132 7,396EBITDA margin 10.7% 12.1% 9.7%EBIT (m) 992 3,531 2,677EBIT margin 2.8% 6.0% 3.5%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 257 1,026 646ROCE 6.7% 5.3% 5.5%Net debt/(cash) (m) 542 5,170 5,247Net Debt/Equity 0.1 0.5 0.4Debt/EBITDA 0.1 0.7 0.7Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 9.6 5.5 6.0EV/Sales 0.2 0.3 0.2EV/EBITDA 1.6 2.2 2.3EV/EBITDA (adj.) 1.6 2.5 2.3EV/EBIT 6.4 4.4 6.3P/E (adj.) 31.9 4.4 8.8P/BV 1.1 0.5 0.6OpFCF yield 10.3% 72.3% -8.6%Dividend yield 3.8% 2.0% 2.4%EPS (adj.) 0.20 0.80 0.51BVPS 6.06 6.95 7.31DPS 0.17 0.09 0.11

New agreement with Sberbank in Russia The facts: Yesterday after market closing, Fiat announced it had signed a Letter of Intent with Sberbank regarding a new project for the production and distribution of passenger and commercial vehicles in Russia. Sberbank will finance the project and take a 20% minority equity interest in the JV. Always yesterday during trading hours, Sergio Marchionne said that finding a partner to cut costs in Europe remains a priority even though there are not many candidates left on the table; Fiat CEO also stated that Fiat-Chrysler must look at Asia and that Suzuki or Mazda may be interesting partners between many others. Our analysis: The Russian venture should be based on Jeep vehicles and could subsequently be expanded to other models and engines which will be produced and assembled locally. The project, still in early stages, foresees the set up of a 120 K units/year production capacity with connected investments of up to EUR 850m. The project encompasses a main plant in the St. Petersburg area and also the assembly of vehicles (SUVs and potentially light commercial vehicles) in the Moscow area via contract manufacturing to be entered into with ZIL. Chrysler Group may also participate in the project as an investor, as well as licensing production of some of its models. No binding agreement has been signed yet; the deal finalisation should take place by June 2012. Conclusion & Action: We argue that the news on the preliminary agreement with Sberbank is good news, but we also highlight that Fiat’s track record in Russia is bad: the company has already set up and unbundled a venture with Sollers.

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FIAT Stoxx Automobiles & Parts (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: EXOR 30%; Treasury shares 3%; Blackrock 3%;

Analyst(s):

Gabriele Gambarova, Banca Akros [email protected]

+39 02 43 444 289



Grifols SA Spain/Healthcare Analyser

Grifols SA (Hold)

Hold




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg GRLS.MC/GRF SM

Market capitalisation (EURm) 5,069Current N° of shares (m) 327Free float 44% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,968,682Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 25Price high 12 mth (EUR) 15.53Price low 12 mth (EUR) 10.10Abs. perf. 1 mth 8.95%Abs. perf. 3 mth 49.80%Abs. perf. 12 mth 44.72%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 990 1,794 2,600EBITDA (m) 255 390 787EBITDA margin 25.8% 21.8% 30.3%EBIT (m) 210 294 685EBIT margin 21.2% 16.4% 26.3%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 133 125 276ROCE 17.5% 5.2% 8.6%Net debt/(cash) (m) 623 2,744 2,918Net Debt/Equity 0.9 1.7 1.6Debt/EBITDA 2.4 7.0 3.7Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 5.7 2.0 2.7EV/Sales 2.6 3.9 3.1EV/EBITDA 10.1 17.8 10.1EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.4 14.7 10.1EV/EBIT 12.2 23.6 11.6P/E (adj.) 14.8 34.0 18.4P/BV 2.8 2.7 2.8OpFCF yield 6.0% 5.0% 4.1%Dividend yield 0.8% 0.0% 0.2%EPS (adj.) 0.63 0.38 0.85BVPS 3.25 4.80 5.62DPS 0.13 0.00 0.03

2011 results affected by non recurrents and a higher tax rate The facts: Grifols’ results came in line with forecasts in terms of consolidated revenues (reported revenues EUR1,795m +81.4%), bellow at EBITDA (EUR365.5m, +44.6%) and net profit (EUR50.3m, -56.4%).

GRIFOLS incr. incr. incr.(Eur m) 2010 2011e y/y 2011 y/y 2010 2011 y/y

Net Sales 990.0 1794.1 81.2% 1795.6 81.4% 2,200.8 2,302.7 4.6%Bioscience * 773.4 1539.1 99.0% 1531.2 98.0% 1,969.6 2,031.3 3.1%Hospital 89.6 92.6 3.4% 95.4 6.5% 89.6 95.4 6.5%Diagnostic 109.1 115.2 5.6% 117.4 7.6% 109.1 117.4 7.6%Raw Materials & Others* 18.0 47.3 162.7% 51.7 187.3% 32.6 58.6 79.8%

Gross profit 461.3 820.4 77.8% 827.5 79.4% 1,057.2 1,096.0 3.7%gross mg. (%) 46.6% 45.7% 46.1% 48.0% 47.6%

EBITDA 255.5 390.4 52.8% 369.5 44.6% 520.8 464.7 -10.8%EBITDA Mg 25.8% 21.8% 20.6% 23.7% 20.2%

EBIDA Adj. 272.5 473.3 73.7% 472.8 73.5% 592.7 630.8 6.4%EBITDA Adj. Mg 27.5% 26.4% 26.3% 26.9% 27.4%

EBIT 209.7 309.0 47.4% 278.9 33.0% 463.6 392.6 -15.3%EBIT Mg 21.2% 17.2% 15.5% 21.1% 17.0%

EBT 157.8 97.7 -38.1% 80.0 -49% 343.1 182.1 -47%Tax (%) 26.8% 31.0% 37.1% 29.7% 35.6%

Net Profit 115.5 67.4 -41.6% 50.3 -56.4% 241.1 117.3 -51.3%Net Profit Adj. 127.3 124.9 -1.9% 144.7 13.7% 291.4 233.6 -19.8%

Source: Grifols & Bankia Bolsa estimates

Proforma

Our analysis: We highlight

Consolidated revenues +4.6% proforma (+7.7% at constant forex). According to the business lines: Bioscience’s proforma revenues grew +3.1% (6.4% at constant forex), while the Hospital and Diagnostic divisions increased sales by 6.5% and 7.5% respectively (6.7% and 8.4% at constant forex).

Good international proforma revenues performance stand out, namely US and Canada (+3.5%, +8.1% constant forex) increasing the company’s market share in the region. Other regions (mainly LatAm and Asia) grew 7% (9% constant forex). National weight has dropped to 10% of total proforma revenues (EUR233.3m) whereas US and Canada represented 60% of proforma sales.

Reported EBITDA reached EUR369.5m (+44.6%), 5.2% below our estimates, due additional EUR20.5m non-recurrent items. The 2011 adjusted proforma EBITDA margin stands out, reaching +27.4% (+0.5pp).

The company expects to implement new measures that will accelerate margins improvement. Our estimates include +3% at EBITDA margin which could seem demanding, bearing in mind the potential non-recurrent costs in upcoming years.

Reported net profit fell 56.4%, to EUR50.3m (-51.3% proforma), caused by the tax rate applied, arising from tax adjustments made in 4Q’11. Our estimates include an average 31% tax rate in 2012 and 32% for the medium term, although these could be low bearing in mind the increasing credit liability balance from deferred taxes (EUR538.4m at 2011).

Conclusion: No surprises at the top lines of the P&L account, but worse in reported net earnings. We will adjust our estimated non-recurrent items for the period 2012-15 and the tax rate. We maintain our Hold recommendation that will be favoured by the better comparison base throughout 2012 (especially in 2H’12).

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GRIFOLS SA IBEX 35 (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Founders & Management 38%; Capital Research & Man. 15%; American Funds Ins. 3%;

Analyst(s):

Ana Isabel González García CIIA, Bankia Bolsa [email protected]

+34 91 436 78 09



Hochtief Germany/Construction & Materials Analyser

Hochtief (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg HOTG.DE/HOT GY

Market capitalisation (EURm) 4,248Current N° of shares (m) 77Free float 37% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 281,961Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 15Price high 12 mth (EUR) 76.55Price low 12 mth (EUR) 37.63Abs. perf. 1 mth 8.11%Abs. perf. 3 mth 38.13%Abs. perf. 12 mth -22.72%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 20,159 22,881 23,708EBITDA (m) 1,394 990 1,444EBITDA margin 6.9% 4.3% 6.1%EBIT (m) 715 (126) 654EBIT margin 3.5% nm 2.8%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 300 (105) 307ROCE 17.2% -3.3% 15.7%Net debt/(cash) (m) (166) (135) (434)Net Debt/Equity 0.0 0.0 -0.1Debt/EBITDA -0.1 -0.1 -0.3Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 7.8 5.7 8.7EV/Sales 0.2 0.2 0.2EV/EBITDA 3.5 4.2 3.2EV/EBITDA (adj.) 3.5 4.2 3.2EV/EBIT 6.8 nm 7.1P/E (adj.) 14.2 nm 13.9P/BV 1.4 1.2 1.4OpFCF yield 24.4% 34.3% 30.9%Dividend yield 4.4% 0.0% 3.6%EPS (adj.) 4.49 (1.36) 3.98BVPS 44.37 37.16 39.15DPS 2.40 0.00 1.99

2011 results in line with recently revised guidance The facts: Hochtief published 2011 results in line with the reduced guidance given in late January. Our analysis: 2011 result: 2011 results came in line with the reduced guidance released in late January. EBT came in at minus EUR 127m (guidance was for EUR -130m) and the net loss reached EUR 160.3m (guidance was for EUR -160m). Please note that we had not adjusted our forecast after the guidance reduction in late January 2011 which explains the differences in outcome and expectation in the table below). EURm 2011a 2011e 2010 % 2011 Cons.

Sales 23,280.0 22,880.7 20,159.3 13% 21,482.0Operating profit n.a. -125.8 715.3 320.0EBT -127.0 -69.1 756.6 -109% -117.0Net profit (after m in.) -160.3 -104.9 288.0 -136% -140.0EPS (€) -2.18 -1.36 4.31 -132% -1.02

So urce: Ho chtief, Tho mso nOne, equinet B ank

Order backlog: Also as released in preliminary figures, OB at the end of December 2011 stood at EUR 48bn compared to EUR 44.5bn at the end of September 2011 and EUR 47.5bn at the end of 2010. Guidance 2012: Guidance is unchanged for an operating and net profit profit (excluding potential effects from the planned sale of assets) slightly below the 2010 level. Order intake and order backlog guidance is for levels slightly below those reached in 2011. Focus of attention: Since the renewed profit warning in late January, Hochtief shares have gained around 15% in value. Focus of investors’ attention will be on statements regarding the planned sale of the airport concessions as well as the real estate portfolio. In addition, we wouldn’t be surprised if the service operation would be put up for sale given that it is too small in our view to compete with the larger players in this field. Dividend proposal: Management will propose to pay no dividend for 2011 in the face of the losses incurred. Conclusion & Action: As expected the figures did not bring any surprises according to the development in 2011. The strong order book at the end of 2011 was also previously announced. Outlook for 2012 remains unchanged. We believe the new management has laid a sound foundation for a positive development in 2012 and 2013. Further information as regards the planned sales of concessions and parts of the real estate portfolio will be focus of attention at today’s analyst meeting.

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HOCHTIEF Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: ACS 53%; Qatar Holding 10%;

Analyst(s):

Ingbert Faust, CEFA, Equinet Bank [email protected]

+49 69 58997 410



Holcim Ltd Switzerland/Construction & Materials Analyser

Holcim Ltd (Hold)

Hold




Target price: CHF

Share price: CHF

Reuters/Bloomberg HOLN.VX/HOLN VX

Market capitalisation (CHFm) 19,069Current N° of shares (m) 327Free float 72% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,316,481Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 76Price high 12 mth (CHF) 76.35Price low 12 mth (CHF) 43.44Abs. perf. 1 mth 4.95%Abs. perf. 3 mth 18.86%Abs. perf. 12 mth -14.52%

Key financials (CHF) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 21,653 20,528 21,084EBITDA (m) 4,513 3,984 4,111EBITDA margin 20.8% 19.4% 19.5%EBIT (m) 2,619 2,009 2,412EBIT margin 12.1% 9.8% 11.4%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 1,182 971 1,080ROCE 4.9% 4.7% 4.5%Net debt/(cash) (m) 11,333 10,662 9,781Net Debt/Equity 0.5 0.5 0.5Debt/EBITDA 2.5 2.7 2.4Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 7.1 5.8 7.4EV/Sales 1.7 1.4 1.5EV/EBITDA 8.0 7.4 7.6EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.5 7.0 8.1EV/EBIT 13.9 14.6 13.0P/E (adj.) 19.2 16.6 17.3P/BV 1.3 0.9 1.1Dividend yield 2.6% 1.3% 2.6%EPS (adj.) 3.68 3.02 3.36BVPS 55.34 53.74 55.52DPS 1.50 0.75 1.50

2011 earnings in line The facts: The 2011 earnings published by Holcim differ very little from our forecasts in terms of EBITDA with a sharp trend reversal to be noted in Q4-2011 (comments prior to the analysts' meeting, which takes place this morning at 12pm in Zurich). Our analysis: Net income is published after value adjustments in the amount of CHF775m (without the cash effect). This stood at CHF275m (we forecast CHF196m but with higher tax expenses, at CHF515m; in fact, tax expenses were limited to CHF449m). The CHF3958m of EBITDA is to be compared with our estimate of CHF3984m, which is almost identical to 2010 on a like-for-like basis. In Q4-2011, it rose by 21.7% lfl, particularly in North America and Europe. The new management has issued guidance of EBITDA growth in 2012 with a slight increase in volumes in North America. Conclusion & Action: Hold, Target price CHF60.

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HOLCIM Ltd Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)Source: Factset

Analyst(s): Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq, CM - CIC Securities [email protected]

+33 1 45 96 91 04



Legrand France/Electronic & Electrical Equipment Analyser

Legrand (Reduce)

Reuters/Bloomberg LR.PA/LR FP


Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13eSales (m) 4,250 4,393 4,624EBITDA (m) 923 931 1,040EBITDA margin 21.7% 21.2% 22.5%EBIT (m) 812 800 902EBIT margin 19.1% 18.2% 19.5%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 507 504 566ROCE 11.1% 10.9% 11.6%Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,269 1,202 1,123Net Debt/Equity 0.4 0.4 0.3Debt/EBITDA 1.4 1.3 1.1Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 11.2 12.9 14.5EV/Sales 1.9 1.9 1.8EV/EBITDA 8.6 9.2 8.2EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.5 8.8 7.9EV/EBIT 9.8 10.7 9.4P/E (adj.) 12.9 14.2 12.7P/BV 2.2 2.2 2.1OpFCF yield 8.3% 6.7% 8.4%Dividend yield 3.2% 3.3% 3.3%EPS (adj.) 1.93 1.91 2.15BVPS 11.18 12.13 13.30DPS 0.88 0.91 0.91

A quality investment but an entry price below EUR24 The facts: A key player in the market for low-voltage electrical equipment, Legrand has over the years built up a business model founded on a good balance between organic growth and growth through acquisitions, a policy of constant innovation and a strategic competitive position which brings with it high pricing power.

Our analysis: The industrial reorganisation carried out by KKR and Wendel, the new shareholders, has led to a significant reduction in payroll as a percentage of sales. It has also brought a reduction in capex and WCR. In concrete terms, this was apparent between 2004 and 2011 via a significant increase in the operating margin from 11.9% to 20.2% and in ROCE from 8.3% to 11.1%. However, given that the cost structure has now been optimised, we feel that there is now only room for limited improvement in the profit margin. Similarly, growth in earnings will depend above all else on revenue growth, which will depend to a large extent on the quality of the integration of the acquisitions made.

Legrand remains highly exposed to the mature European markets, and as such is very likely to suffer from the region’s economic headaches, especially in France and Italy which account for more than half of operating income. We are forecasting zero growth in the euro zone with a marked contraction in Italian GDP (-0.5% to -1%). The correlation between the construction markets and GDP implies that Legrand’s activity levels will at best flatline in France and Italy in 2012. The key drivers will be the consolidation of positions in the emerging markets, such as Asia-Pacific (less than 5% of sales in China) and new market segments (energy efficiency, smart grids, home automation), which are relatively uncorrelated to global economic growth.

However, the gap in growth between mature and emerging markets is likely to weigh on the operating margin since profit levels in France and Italy (22.4% and 32.3% respectively in 2011) are much higher than on emerging markets (15.1% in 2011).

Conclusion & Action: We think the group’s advantages have been fully priced in. The premium on the valuation multiples of the group’s European peers is between 5% and 15%. We feel that it is currently harder to justify this premium given that Legrand’s operating performance seems less likely to improve compared to that of its competitors.

We are initiating coverage of Legrand with a Reduce recommendation and a target price of EUR24, which we feel is a fair entry price on the stock as part of a continuity scenario, i.e. with no speculative premium.

It is true that ABB recently agreed to offer a premium of 25% to acquire Thomas & Betts, one of Legrand’s US competitors. GE, Siemens and even Emerson could well be interested in a possible tie-up with Legrand if its two main exiting shareholders, KKR and Wendel (11.6% of the share capital and 20.2% of the voting rights – 4 seats on the board of directors) were to provide them with encouragement to do so.

However, the current economic climate does not argue in favour of extensive M&A deals and it seems highly unlikely that a tie-up of this kind would take place within an acceptable timeframe for an investor.

Publication of a report today.

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LEGRAND CAC 40 (Rebased)Source: Factset

Analyst(s):

Ari Agopyan, CM - CIC Securities [email protected]

+33 1 45 96 85 80

Agnès Blazy (Governance) [email protected]

+33 1 45 96 77 61

Reduce


24.00

Initiation of coverage

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR



Luxottica Italy/Personal Goods Analyser

Luxottica (Accumulate)

Accumulate




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg LUX.MI/LUX IM


Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 5,798 6,223 6,780EBITDA (m) 1,014 1,148 1,293EBITDA margin 17.5% 18.5% 19.1%EBIT (m) 712 815 931EBIT margin 12.3% 13.1% 13.7%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 469 520 611ROCE 8.2% 9.6% 10.6%Net debt/(cash) (m) 2,111 2,017 1,787Net Debt/Equity 0.6 0.6 0.5Debt/EBITDA 2.1 1.8 1.4Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 10.3 10.4 12.9EV/Sales 2.3 2.1 2.1EV/EBITDA 13.3 11.2 11.2EV/EBITDA (adj.) 13.3 11.2 11.2EV/EBIT 18.9 15.8 15.5P/E (adj.) 22.6 19.4 19.5P/BV 3.2 3.1 3.3OpFCF yield 8.9% 7.5% 5.8%Dividend yield 1.7% 1.8% 2.0%EPS (adj.) 1.01 1.12 1.31BVPS 7.03 7.05 7.75DPS 0.44 0.46 0.50

Luxottica FY 11 results: +7.3% top line, + 12% EBIT, +13% net income... as promised The facts: Luxottica reported FY 11 results yesterday after the market closed. An investor day will be held today in Milan. Our analysis: FY 11 EBIT adjusted (not considering some extraordinary items occurred in 2011) was in line with the consensus estimates and the growth of 2x vs. the sales growth was respected. Although these figures were already discounted by the market, we see as the only negative a slight drop in wholesale EBIT margin in Q4 11. Cash generation was very strong at EUR 500m in FY 11, so that net debt was reduced to EUR 2,032m (vs. EUR 2,111m of YE 2011); the DPS will be EUR 0.49/sh.

EUR m FY 10 FY 11 Chg. Y/Y Q4 10 Q4 11 Chg. Y/Y Wholesale sales 2,236.4 2,456.4 9.8% 513.5 556.2 8.3% Retail sales 3,561.6 3,766.2 5.7% 833 952.9 14.4% Total sales 5,798.0 6,222.6 7.3% 1,346.5 1,509.1 12.1% EBITDA 1,013.8 1,131.0 11.6% 172.3 222.8 29.3% % on sales 17.5% 18.2% 12.8% 14.8% EBITDA adj. 1,034.2 1,135.9 9.8% 192.8 224.7 16.5% % on sales 17.8% 18.3% 14.3% 14.9% Wholesale EBIT 461.9 529.1 14.5% 89.7 87.9 -2.0% % on sales 20.7% 21.5% 17.5% 15.8% Retail EBIT 424.4 436.9 2.9% 70.5 94.8 34.5% % on sales 11.9% 11.6% 8.5% 9.9% Retail EBIT adj. 424.4 448.7 5.7% % on sales 11.9% 11.9% Intersegment -174.1 -158.8 -64 -54.3 Total EBIT 712.2 807.1 13.3% 96.2 128.4 33.5% % on sales 12.3% 13.0% 7.1% 8.5% Total EBIT adj. 732.6 820.9 12.0% 116.6 139.3 19.5% % on sales 12.6% 13.2% 8.7% 9.2% Net income 402.2 452.3 12.5% 55.1 64.4 16.9% Net income adj. 402.7 455.6 13.1% 55.6 72.7 30.8%

Source: company data and Banca Akros estimates

Outlook: Sales in January and February were up d/d. Short term targets: emerging market’s sales will grow more than 30% in FY 12, with the goal to reach 30% of total wholesale revenues within 2015 (22% in FY 11). Retail in Emerging markets will be developed through SGH in the sun belt areas (after the retail acquisitions in Mexico, the new openings in Brazil and in China and the development in India), which is expected to reach 4000 point of sales worldwide within 2015. Like-for-like retail sales growth in the US is expected to be 5 / 7% in FY 12; wholesale division should grow more than 15%. Western Europe should show 4 / 6% sales growth in FY 12. Australia and New Zealand retail chain OPSM sales are seen up by 8 / 12% in FY 12: 50 new shops openings are expected in the next 2 years (AUD 40m capex allocated). Sales from Oakley should be up d/d also in FY 12. A new long term notes issuance to institutional investors will be done in FY 12 for EUR 500m. Conclusion & Action: In the light of the first indications we will revise our FY 12 sales estimates. We are still positive on the stock performance, waiting for more indications today during the investor day.

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LUXOTTICA Stoxx Personal Goods (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Del Vecchio 68%; Giorgio Armani 5%;

Analyst(s):

Giada Cabrino, CIIA, Banca Akros [email protected]

+39 02 4344 4092



Peugeot SA France/Automobiles & Parts Analyser

Peugeot SA (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg PEUP.PA/UG FP


Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13eSales (m) 59,912 59,281 60,926EBITDA (m) 3,995 4,120 4,858EBITDA margin 6.7% 6.9% 8.0%EBIT (m) 898 970 1,708EBIT margin 1.5% 1.6% 2.8%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 739 650 1,048ROCE 4.7% 4.3% 6.8%Net debt/(cash) (m) 3,359 2,604 2,482Net Debt/Equity 0.2 0.2 0.2Debt/EBITDA 0.8 0.6 0.5Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 12.0 9.8 12.5EV/Sales 0.1 0.1 0.1EV/EBITDA 1.8 1.7 1.4EV/EBITDA (adj.) 1.7 1.7 1.4EV/EBIT 8.0 7.3 4.1P/E (adj.) 3.8 5.5 3.4P/BV 0.2 0.3 0.2OpFCF yield -61.8% -9.6% -1.1%Dividend yield 7.2% 0.0% 0.0%EPS (adj.) 3.16 2.78 4.48BVPS 59.12 61.47 65.73DPS 1.10 0.00 0.00

The PSA-GM alliance is taking shape The facts: To date, neither PSA nor GM have made any official announcements, all we have to go on is informal information doing the rounds of the market. Bloomberg and the WSJ say that PSA could launch a capital increase of nearly EUR1bn. Our analysis: Assuming a discount of 15%, the dilution would work out at about 30%. A bit more than 75m new shares would be issued, compared with the current total of 234m. The Peugeot family could sell all of the subscription rights to which it is entitled to GM, giving it a stake in of 7% in PSA. This would bring the family’s interest down to 22.5%, vs 30%. The question is now how the group would use the new cash. We think the final agreement will bear on technical cooperation (sharing of platforms, chassis, motors) between PSA and Opel in Europe. But the talks between GM and PSA reportedly also cover the creation of a shared low-cost platform with the code name “Plan B-Popular”. This platform would be used for entry-level models targeting emerging markets such as Brazil, India and China. PSA was looking into developing a similar platform nearly a year ago at Vigo. Conclusion & Action: If the agreement goes ahead as reported, we would welcome it for several reasons. It would imply to us that the reference shareholders (the Peugeot family) had (at long last) eased their position in order to beef up the group’s strategy, which the market would see as a positive. A PSA-Opel agreement would help PSA restore a measure of profitability in Europe by amortising its R&D and capex more quickly. On top of that, an agreement could partially solve the issue of PSA’s chronic overcapacity in Europe. The group could get more volumes out of its plants, bringing utilisation rates up from the current 60% to as much as 80-90%. Initially, the agreement on a low-cost platform would enable PSA to speed up its internationalisation, in line with its strategic objectives. PSA’s globalisation could get a boost from entry-level and cheaper vehicles, which could enable it to break into emerging markets, along the lines of Renault, with its entry-level range (including Dacia).

By contrast, if the capital raised were used solely to pay down debt, we would take an unfavourable view and be very surprised. The group has already drawn up plans to pay down its debt quickly, with asset sales of EUR1.5bn. PSA has EUR3.2bn in debt maturing within three years. But it also has nearly EUR6bn in liquidity and gearing of just 23%. Use of the new capital in this way would imply that the group has burned a huge amount of cash in the early months of the year (at least EUR700m).

We think the group has already addressed debt reduction with the asset disposals announced just a fortnight ago. But there is a big chance that the group will now turn to its other challenges: increase the utilisation rate of its capacities in Europe by taking in some of the volumes of Opel and speed up its globalisation with GM’s low-cost platform.

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PEUGEOT SA Stoxx Automobiles & Parts (Rebased)Source: Factset

Analyst:

Florent Couvreur, CM - CIC Securities [email protected]

+33 1 45 96 77 60



Postbank Germany/Banks Analyser

Postbank (Accumulate)

Accumulate




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg DPBGn.DE/DPB GR


Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eTotal Revenue (m) 3,772 4,083 4,153Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 851 984 1,209Operating profit (OP) 263 584 829Earnings Before Tax (m) 323 84 729Net Profit (adj.) (m) 225 58 509Shareholders Equity (m) 5,672 5,930 6,439Tangible BV (m) 4,021 4,279 4,788RWA (m) 57,202 49,202 49,202ROE (adj.) 5.9% 1.4% 11.2%Tier1 Ratio 7.8% 9.7% 10.6%Cost/Income 77.4% 75.9% 70.9%P/PPP 5.3 5.4 5.1P/E (adj.) 20.2 nm 12.0P/BV 0.8 0.9 1.0P/NAV 1.1 1.2 1.3Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%PPPPS 3.89 4.50 5.53EPS (adj.) 1.03 0.26 2.33BVPS 25.92 27.10 29.43NAVPS 18.38 19.56 21.88DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

DBK’s stake increased to 93.7%, TP upped to EUR 32 The facts: Yesterday, Deutsche Bank announced that it had increased its stake in Deutsche Postbank to 93.7%. It has bought 4.8m shares through the market (equivalent to a 2.2% stake) and received 86.4m shares (39.5% stake) from Deutsche Post (as the mandatory exchangeable bond was exchanged into shares and Dt. Post exercised its Put option). Our analysis: Squeeze-out exp for 2012: DBK should be in the legal position (i.e. holding a stake of at least 95%) to squeeze out the minority shareholders in the coming months. We do not see any reason why DBK should not go for the full 100% ownership as this would lead to further cost savings. AGM has to approve the squeeze out: A squeeze out has to be approved by an AGM (with a 95% vote). We would expect such an AGM not to take place before summer 2012 as the organization (incl. fair value opinions) takes some time and cannot be started before February 2012. Minimum share price level for squeeze-out at least EUR 25.60: In October 2010 DBK launched a voluntary take-over offer to the Postbank minority shareholders at EUR 25.00. The minimum squeeze-out price is set by the average 3 months historic share price before the announcement of the planned squeeze-out. As of today the average 3M historic share price is equivalent to EUR 25.60. Additionally a fair-value opinion by a third party is required – an IDW S1 valuation is normally the basis for the fair value calculation. Fundamental performance should further improve in 2012: In 9M 2011 Postbank has reached a pretax profit of EUR 12m because of write-downs on Greek sovereign bonds of EUR 527m (which are now valued at 42% of nominal value). Underlying business development was however good in Q3 with an increase of net interest income of 1% yoy, stable costs (-1% yoy) and lower risk provisions (-40% yoy) which resulted in an operating profit of EUR 217m (+190 % yoy) in Q3. For 2012e and 2013e we expect a further improvement of the operating result, pretax profit should increase even stronger as we do not expect any significant write-downs on financial assets. Conclusion & Action: Having increased its stake to 93.7% we expect DBK to squeeze out the minority shareholders in the coming months. The minimum squeeze-out price is equivalent to the 3M average historic share price ahead of the squeeze-out announcement. We expect DBK however to offer a higher share price and thus increase our target price to EUR 32.00, the fair value we calculate from our IDW S1 valuation model. Key risks are that DBK does not further increase its stake (and makes a squeeze out) and even if makes a squeeze-out that it offers only the minimum squeeze-out price. The downside for the share price should however be limited as squeeze-out speculation should support the share price.

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POSTBANK Stoxx Banks (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Deutsche Bank 94%;

Analyst(s):

Philipp Häßler, CFA, Equinet Bank [email protected]

+49 69 58997 414



Red Electrica De Espana Spain/Utilities Analyser

Red Electrica De Espana (Accumulate)

Accumulate




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg REE.MC/REE SM


Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13eSales (m) 1,637 1,809 1,934EBITDA (m) 1,215 1,330 1,438EBITDA margin 74.2% 73.5% 74.4%EBIT (m) 844 919 1,000EBIT margin 51.5% 50.8% 51.7%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 460 522 576ROCE 7.0% 7.2% 7.6%Net debt/(cash) (m) 4,693 4,709 4,681Net Debt/Equity 2.6 2.3 2.0Debt/EBITDA 3.9 3.5 3.3Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 8.2 8.8 9.4EV/Sales 5.6 5.4 5.1EV/EBITDA 7.6 7.4 6.8EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.6 7.4 6.8EV/EBIT 10.9 10.7 9.8P/E (adj.) 9.7 9.7 8.8P/BV 2.5 2.5 2.2OpFCF yield 20.6% 18.1% 19.8%Dividend yield 5.9% 6.7% 7.4%EPS (adj.) 3.40 3.86 4.26BVPS 13.39 15.17 16.92DPS 2.21 2.51 2.77

Good 2011 results and outlook for 2012 The facts: Red Eléctrica’s results came in above forecasts and at the top of consensus’ range. REE has reiterated its 2012-15 targets. Our analysis: Results 2% above our estimated EBITDA and net profit.

REE (m EUR) 2010 2011 Var (%) 2011e DifRevenues 1,397 1,637 17.2% 1,625 0.8%EBITDA 1,002 1,215 21.3% 1,192 1.9%Mrg. EBITDA 71.7% 74.2% 3.5% 73.4% 1.2%Depreciations & Prov. -313 -371 18.5% -369 0.7%EBIT 689 844 22.6% 823 2.5%Financial Result -129 -161 24.9% -146 10.3%Equity results 1.0 0.9 -7.5% 0.0Ordinary Result 561 684 22.0% 677 1.0%No recurrent results 0.0 0.0 0.0EBT 561 684 22.0% 677 1.0%Taxes -170 -223 31.2% -225 -0.7%Fiscal Rate 29.6% 33% 10.4% 33% -1.7%Minorities 0.0 -0.1 0.0Net Profit 390 460 17.9% 452 1.8%Source: Red Eléctrica & Bankia Bolsa

The most important aspects to highlight:

• Investments EUR844m vs. EUR800m estimated, and it is still the estimated average for the next 4 years (until 2015).

• Net debt reached EUR4,693m in 2011, falling 1.3% since last year, and implying 3.9x EBITDA. The current average life is of 7 years and the maturities in 2012 have been refinanced

• REE announced DPS EUR2.2124/sh for 2011, which points to a 65% pay-out and 6% DY.

• Financial targets: Pay-out maintained at 65%. CAGR EPS and, therefore DPS, above 12% until 2015. Investments EUR800m/year.

• Changes to estimates: We have fine-tuned our estimates by implementing the larger base, but have reduced EBITDA margin for 2012 as it came in especially high in 2011.

• Regulation: in 2012 the same parameters as in 2011 have been applied. Conclusion: 2011 results and the outlook for 2012 demonstrate that this stock continues offering a good combination of visibility and growth. Either way, as in all electricity stocks, REE is currently affected by the risks in regulatory changes. Initially, substantial changes in a company that has not contributed to creating deficit, but on the contrary, would not be logical. However, until the framework is defined, we maintain our 5% discount in our valuation. We maintain our fair value (EUR43/share) and Buy recommendation.

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RED ELECTRICA DE ESPANA Stoxx Utilities (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Spanish State 20%; REN 1.00%; Viesgo 1.00%;

Analyst(s):

Sonia Ruiz De Garibay, Bankia Bolsa [email protected]

+34 91 436 7841



Saipem Italy/Oil Services Analyser

Saipem (Hold)

Hold




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg SPMI.MI/SPM IM

Market capitalisation (EURm) 16,796Current N° of shares (m) 441Free float 49% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,947,909Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 66Price high 12 mth (EUR) 38.54Price low 12 mth (EUR) 23.55Abs. perf. 1 mth 8.04%Abs. perf. 3 mth 20.22%Abs. perf. 12 mth 3.96%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 11,174 12,614 13,075EBITDA (m) 1,836 2,135 2,243EBITDA margin 16.4% 16.9% 17.2%EBIT (m) 1,319 1,493 1,585EBIT margin 11.8% 11.8% 12.1%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 844 921 966ROCE 17.7% 18.4% 19.2%Net debt/(cash) (m) 3,263 3,191 2,725Net Debt/Equity 0.8 0.7 0.5Debt/EBITDA 1.8 1.5 1.2Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 16.7 16.1 18.3EV/Sales 1.7 1.4 1.5EV/EBITDA 10.6 8.2 8.7EV/EBITDA (adj.) 10.6 8.2 8.7EV/EBIT 14.7 11.8 12.3P/E (adj.) 19.3 15.7 17.4P/BV 4.0 3.1 3.1OpFCF yield 10.1% 12.3% 11.1%Dividend yield 1.7% 1.8% 1.9%EPS (adj.) 1.91 2.09 2.19BVPS 9.20 10.65 12.14DPS 0.63 0.70 0.72

Comments on Saipem meeting in Singapore The facts: Saipem held a company meeting with analysts in Singapore. Our analysis: we summarize in the following bullet points the most important considerations:

• The company confirmed its debt target of EUR 1bn (from ~EUR 3.2bn at the end of 2011), due to be reached in a few years. Once reached, the company could evaluate do increase its pay out ratio provided that new investment in drilling will not materialise;

• Saipem looks confident on coming new orders for 2012, even if there are some uncertainties in Iraq (that could be the most important market for the sector, once it starts). Some contracts could come from Venezuela in the coming weeks.

• On the sector competition, the company is confident to maintain its competitive edge based on the investment in local contents, and on high quality service.

Conclusion & Action: we confirm our neutral stance on the stock on the back of the positive results posted (bang in line with our estimates). By factoring in the new guidance and by increasing our estimates from 2013 onward (mainly to reflect the positive outlook provided by the company), we have recently derived a target price of EUR 38.1 per share.

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SAIPEM FTSE MIB (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: ENI 43%; Capital research and management company 5%; GE asset management INC 3%;

Analyst(s):

Francesco Previtera, Banca Akros [email protected]

+39 02 4344 4033



STMicroelectronics Italy/Semiconductors Analyser

STMicroelectronics (Hold)

Hold




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg STM.MI/STM IM


Key financials (USD) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 10,346 9,782 10,447EBITDA (m) 1,797 1,419 1,688EBITDA margin 17.4% 14.5% 16.2%EBIT (m) 476 61 443EBIT margin 4.6% 0.6% 4.2%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 829 609 517ROCE 7.9% 2.2% 7.8%Net debt/(cash) (m) (1,152) (1,055) (1,232)Net Debt/Equity -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Debt/EBITDA -0.6 -0.7 -0.7Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (599.0) 56.8 (53.3)EV/Sales 0.8 0.4 0.5EV/EBITDA 4.4 2.9 3.2EV/EBITDA (adj.) 4.2 2.7 3.1EV/EBIT 16.8 67.0 12.4P/E (adj.) 11.2 8.7 13.2P/BV 1.1 0.6 0.7OpFCF yield 27.0% 25.6% 22.3%Dividend yield 3.1% 5.0% 5.2%EPS (adj.) 0.93 0.68 0.58BVPS 9.53 10.06 10.47DPS 0.24 0.38 0.40

Bet on a quick turnaround at STE looks premature The facts: During a conference held in Barcellona's World Mobile congress, the new CEO announced new smart phones and tablets models using STE platform (Samsung's Galaxy advanced is the most important) and a new integrated LTE NovaThor platform. Our Analysis: A more precise strategic plan will presented in a few weeks time (beginning of April) though during the presentation the CEO stressed that: a) STE will not necessarily continue to run all the businesses of modems/ applications / connectivity. They will decide to exit areas where are not sufficiently strong or to join forces with a partner. Restructuring in 2012 will be aimed to reduce break even point. b) the partnership between STM and Ericsson provides STE a unique combination of know how and makes the aim of becoming one of the two main providers of platforms for smart phones credible. c) 2012 will see a stabilisation of revenues and reduction of b.e.p. while STE will be back to growth in 2013 to become one of the three top operator by 2014. Profitability will be recovered only at the end of 2014 The announcements accelerated during the day:

• New Samsung Android-powered smartphone is first from company to use ST-Ericsson NovaThor platform

• Industry’s first 40nm GNSS, Bluetooth, FM Radio combination platform for smartphones and tablets

• Panasonic selected the power-efficient Thor™ M5780 thin modem for their newest ultra slim smartphone.

• ST-Ericsson introduces the first fully integrated wireless charger for mobile phones with the PM2020

... and coupled with the default of the Japanese DREAM manufacturer Elpida and with a rebound of all tech stocks. Events seem to recognise that the foundation of a turnaround exist already in the product pipeline. Nevertheless STE will need a severe restructuring to regain profitability after that Its top line was almost halved over the past 2 years due to contraction of Nokia and Samsung. Conclusion & Action: Yesterday rally of STM stock looks like a premature bet on STE turnaround in an industry that proved to be profitable just for top players: Q1-2012 will see a drop in revenues while 2012 costs of restructuring are not identified yet. We prefer to wait the April strategic assessment to take a more aggressive position.

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STMICROELECTRONICS Stoxx Semiconductors (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: STMicroelectronic holding 28%;

Analyst(s):

Francesco Previtera, Banca Akros [email protected]

+39 02 4344 4033

Andrea Devita, CFA, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4031



Vopak Netherlands/Oil Services Analyser

Vopak (Hold)

Hold




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg VOPA.AS/VPK NA



FY11 at high end of range, FY12 guidance cautious The facts: Vopak reported FY11 results

Preview FY11 FY10A FY11E Guidance Actual

CEMEA 90.6 89.7 87.8OEMEA 152.2 170.3 161.4Asia 169.9 192.4 185.3North America 46.0 32.9 33.8Latin America 25.7 27.9 28.2Non-allocated -39.1 -35.0 -27.0Group operating profit before exceptionals 445.3 478.2 469.5

Exceptional items -3.3 114.2 116

Reported group operating profit 442.0 592.4 585.5

Occupancy 93% 93% 93%Capacity 28.8 27.8 27.8EBITDA before exceptionals 598.2 622.0 600-640 636.0Source: Vopak, SNS Securities

Our analysis: Vopak reported FY11 EBITDA of EUR 636m, at the high end of the FY11 guidance of EUR 600-640m and better than our and consensus estimates of EUR 622m and EUR 623m respectively. In terms of the divisions we note that CEMEA, North America and Latin America reported in line numbers but that OEMEA EBIT came in below our expectation. We assumed that the contribution of Westpoort, strong throughput at Fujairah and Tallin and closure of refining capacity in Western Europe would lead to higher activity levels, which has become true as 4Q11 was the best quarter for OEMEA. However, it appears we were too optimistic given the actual results. We were also too optimistic about Asia, which was impacted by lower chemicals production and lower throughputs due to backwardation, issues we had not taken into account properly. Vopak expects FY12 EBITDA to increase over FY11 but does not provide a quantitative target, which is unexpected. Vopak does mention that it expects demand for oil storage to remain robust, with Chemical markets being encouraging and improving Biofuels markets. But given the expected capacity expansions, the improving global economy and Vopak’s business model, the fact that a FY12 target is lacking will not be viewed as positive. Vopak has reiterated its FY13 target of an EBITDA of EUR 725m to EUR 800m and will pay a FY11 dividend of EUR 0.80 per share (was EUR 0.7). Conclusion & Action: A solid set of results for Vopak with EBITDA at the high end of the provided range and a reiteration of the FY13 target. However, the fact that Vopak did not provide a quantitative FY12 target may not be viewed as positive.

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VOPAK Midkap (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: ASR 0.00%; HAL 47%; ING 5%; Aviva 5%;

Analyst(s):

Martijn den Drijver, SNS Securities [email protected]

+312 0 5508636



Acerinox Spain/Basic Resources Analyser

Acerinox (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ACX.MC/ACX SM

Market capitalisation (EURm) 2,678Current N° of shares (m) 249Free float 40% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,234,833Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 14Price high 12 mth (EUR) 14.08Price low 12 mth (EUR) 8.18Abs. perf. 1 mth -1.01%Abs. perf. 3 mth 10.27%Abs. perf. 12 mth -21.89%


4Q’11 results The facts: Acerinox released the following results:

ACERINOX: 4Q´11 RESULTSEUR m 2010 %sles 2011 %sles %11/10 2011e % dev 3Q11 4Q11Sales 4,500.5 100% 4,672.2 100% 4% 4,713.9 -1% 1,061.3 1,050.5EBITDA 379.9 8.4% 339.2 7.3% -11% 383.5 -12% 58.5 23.5Depreciation -147.8 -3% -146.8 -3% -1% -146.8 0% 0.0 0.0EBIT 232.1 5.2% 192.4 4.1% -17% 236.7 -19% 21.7 -13.2Financial Results -39.6 -1% -59.8 -1% 51% -54.1 11% 0.0 0.0EBT 192.5 4.3% 132.6 2.8% -31% 182.6 -27% 5.5 -29.5Taxes -75.3 -2% -66.4 -1% -12% -67.6 -2% -5.8 -4.3Minorities 5.5 0% 7.5 0% -2.8 0% 1.2 4.7Net Profit 122.7 2.7% 73.7 1.6% -40% 117.8 -37% 1.0 -29.0

Our analysis: 2011 results: Sales +4%, EBITDA -11% and net profit -40%, results above forecasts and consensus (Factset). In 4Q’11demand decelerated together with lower stocks and fall of base prices in Europe. The 4Q EBIT of EUR-13.6m (EBIT mg -1.3%) dampens the positive performance in previous quarters (EUR114m EBIT in 1Q’11) but this is not as unfavourable if compared to Outokumpu’s EUR-71m EBIT (EBIT mg -6.3%) and Aperam’s USD-29m (EBIT mg -2%). The US market continues being Acerinox’ leading market, representing 47% of the total sales and contributing positive results vs. Europe and South Africa’s losses, EUR-25.9m and EUR-23.3m, respectively. Controlling working capital has allowed a substantial reduction in net debt, from EUR1,084m in 2010 to EUR887m in 2011, reaching net debt/EBITDA 2.61x vs. 2.87x at 2010. Conclusion: Outokumpu and Aperam’s results pointed to positive signs in prices and volumes in Europe. Acerinox indicates that the strength of the US market is allowing NAS to continue at full capacity in 1Q’12, with the strong recovery in capital goods. Acerinox coincides with other manufactures regarding the reactivation in the European market, increasing order intake in Cadiz and South Africa. Acerinox also stated that the incoming orders are firm in April and that optimism reigns in 1H’12, but remain prudent. The sector is improving, and concentration in Europe will help in the medium term. This, together with the healthy financial position and growth in Malaysia reiterates our Buy recommendation.

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ACERINOX Stoxx Basic Resources (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: CF Alba 24%; Nisshin Steel 15%; Omega Capital 12%;

Analyst(s):

Iñigo Recio Pascual, Bankia Bolsa [email protected]

+34 91 436 7814



Arcadis Netherlands/General Industrials Analyser

Arcadis (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ARDS.AS/ARCAD NA

Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,001Current N° of shares (m) 71Free float 57% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 110,657Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 2Price high 12 mth (EUR) 17.46Price low 12 mth (EUR) 11.75Abs. perf. 1 mth -4.90%Abs. perf. 3 mth 11.57%Abs. perf. 12 mth -18.21%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 2,002 2,017 2,311EBITDA (m) 162 167 201EBITDA margin 8.1% 8.3% 8.7%EBIT (m) 128 134 163EBIT margin 6.4% 6.7% 7.1%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 78 82 100ROCE 11.9% 11.1% 12.6%Net debt/(cash) (m) 218 237 202Net Debt/Equity 0.5 0.5 0.4Debt/EBITDA 1.3 1.4 1.0Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 8.8 7.2 9.6EV/Sales 0.6 0.5 0.5EV/EBITDA 7.9 5.8 5.6EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.9 5.8 5.6EV/EBIT 10.0 7.2 6.9P/E (adj.) 15.1 10.0 9.6P/BV 3.0 1.8 1.9OpFCF yield 8.5% 9.6% 7.2%Dividend yield 3.3% 3.3% 3.6%EPS (adj.) 1.15 1.21 1.48BVPS 5.83 6.76 7.64DPS 0.47 0.47 0.51

Higher estimates Arcadis The facts: Estimate changes after Arcadis results Our analysis: Arcadis reported results 4Q11 results that were better than our and consensus numbers. Very strong growth in the emerging markets (especially Brazil and Chile) more than offset the decrease in water (especially US) and the Netherlands. In the analyst meeting after the results, Arcadis was optimistic on the outlook for the order book (-3%), as the pipeline appears to be well filled. Arcadis expects revenues/EBITA improvement in 2012. The improvement will be foremost driven by the turn around in the UK (profitable again after a loss in 1H11), the negative effect from Poland that will start to disappear and the effect of restructuring. CEO Noy has a good feeling that margins will improve as well. All in all, we have increased our top line estimate by 1% in 2012 and kept our top line estimate for 2013 unchanged. Bottom line we have increased our estimates for 2012 and 2013 by around 5%.

Source: SNS Securities

Conclusion & Action: Arcadis reported 4Q11 results that were ahead of our estimates and we were reaffirmed in our investment case of a strong growth profile with exposure to attractive geographies/activities at a relatively low valuation.

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ARCADIS Stoxx General Industrials (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: St. Lovinklaan 21%; Delta lloyd 5%; Delta Deelnemingen Fd 5%; ASR Nederland 5%;

Analyst(s):

Edwin de Jong, SNS Securities [email protected]

+312 0 5508569



Besi Netherlands/Semiconductors Analyser

Besi (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg BESI.AS/BESI NA

Market capitalisation (EURm) 206Current N° of shares (m) 37Free float 56% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 116,382Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 1Price high 12 mth (EUR) 7.25Price low 12 mth (EUR) 3.49Abs. perf. 1 mth -3.12%Abs. perf. 3 mth 14.51%Abs. perf. 12 mth -5.29%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 351 323 318EBITDA (m) 60 43 49EBITDA margin 17.2% 13.4% 15.4%EBIT (m) 50 32 36EBIT margin 14.2% 9.9% 11.4%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 42 23 28ROCE 22.1% 13.2% 14.8%Net debt/(cash) (m) (23) (65) (93)Net Debt/Equity -0.1 -0.3 -0.3Debt/EBITDA -0.4 -1.5 -1.9EV/Sales 0.4 0.4 0.4EV/EBITDA 2.4 2.8 2.3EV/EBITDA (adj.) 2.2 2.8 2.3EV/EBIT 3.0 3.7 3.1P/E (adj.) 4.1 7.9 7.4P/BV 0.8 0.7 0.8OpFCF yield 1.3% 21.8% 19.7%Dividend yield 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%EPS (adj.) 1.23 0.65 0.76BVPS 6.46 6.93 7.34DPS 0.20 0.20 0.20

4Q results in line The facts: Besi reported 4Q results this morning. Revenues decreased 6.9% to EUR 70m from 3Q and were down 33% compared to peak sales in 4Q10. The sales were above guidance and our estimate of EUR 68m. Net income of EUR 3.4m in 4Q11 vs. EUR 4.9m in 3Q11 exceeds expectations. Operating income was in line with our estimates at EUR 2.5m (our estimate (EUR 2.3m). Our analysis: Besi reported 4Q results that were ahead of our estimates top line and in line operationally. Order intake was lower than expected and as such the total backlog was lower as well at EUR 51m (our estimate EUR 64m). Lower than expected revenues in the die attach product group, reflected continued customer caution in adding new capacity. However, the decrease was lower than prior guidance due to higher than anticipated die bonding and ultra thin molding equipment shipments. More importantly, Besi stated that based on higher orders in 1Q12, the trough in the cycle might have been reached in 4Q11. As such the company expects that revenues decreased by around 20%, compared to 4Q11 and that gross margins will be stable at 37%-39%. Operating expenses will decrease by 10%. Conclusion & Action: Besi’s results were somewhat ahead of our estimates top line and in line operationally. Reaching the trough in the cycle in 4Q11 (and therefore the high orders in 1Q12) is in line with our expectations as well.

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BESI Stoxx Semiconductors (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: A. Strating 10%; D. Lindenbergh 7%; Aviva 6%; Darlin 6%; Via Finis 6%; J. van Caldenborgh 5%; Gestion 5%;

Analyst(s):

Victor Bareño, CFA, SNS Securities [email protected]

+312 0 5508822



Bolsas y Mercados Españoles SA Spain/Financial Services Analyser

Bolsas y Mercados Espanoles SA (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg BME.MC/BME SM


Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 326 322 334EBITDA (m) 223 221 230EBITDA margin 68.4% 68.6% 68.8%EBIT (m) 215 212 223EBIT margin 65.9% 65.9% 66.8%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 149 154 158ROCE 120.4% 112.0% 99.3%Net debt/(cash) (m) (270) (265) (255)Net Debt/Equity -0.6 -0.6 -0.6Debt/EBITDA -1.2 -1.2 -1.1Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (73.4) (73.7) (73.0)EV/Sales 3.7 4.6 4.3EV/EBITDA 5.5 6.7 6.3EV/EBITDA (adj.) 5.5 6.6 6.3EV/EBIT 5.7 6.9 6.5P/E (adj.) 10.0 11.3 10.8P/BV 3.3 3.9 3.7OpFCF yield 10.3% 8.8% 9.1%Dividend yield 9.7% 9.7% 9.7%EPS (adj.) 1.78 1.84 1.89BVPS 5.36 5.38 5.49DPS 1.97 1.97 1.97

2011 results preview: EUR152.4m (+2.3% Y/Y) 29.02.12 The facts Bolsas y Mercados Españoles (BME) will release results today after market’s close. Prior to extraordinary items, we estimate EUR152.4m net profit (+2.3% Y/Y) and EUR153.6m (-0.4% Y/Y) reported net profit. The presentation to analysts will be held tomorrow (01.03.12) at 13:00 CET.

BME (EURm) 12m'11E 12m'10 y/y 4Q'11E y/y q/qVolume BME (mm) 927 1,039 -10.7% 207 -29.8% -12.0% Equity 137.3 138.0 -0.5% 33.31 -2.0% -5.1% Settlement 77.4 75.3 2.9% 18.94 -4.6% -8.5% Listing 24.0 22.9 4.9% 5.67 -10.9% -16.3% Information 32.8 31.3 4.6% 8.43 6.6% 3.6% Derivatives 23.8 26.3 -9.3% 5.61 -15.9% -1.0% Fixed Income 8.2 7.5 10.0% 1.90 6.5% 12.5% IT & Consulting 15.8 14.4 9.7% 3.85 -10.0% -9.5%CC & & adj. 3.0 3.1 -2.9% 0.19 -71.4% -124.2%Total Revenue 322.4 318.8 1.1% 77.90 -4.4% -4.4% Personnel expense. -63.6 -62.8 1.2% -17.00 6.5% 9.4% General expense. -36.9 -35.1 4.9% -9.90 9.0% 13.9% Taxes/other -0.8 -1.1 -26.4% -0.34 -30.9% 122.2%Total Ope Expenses -101.3 -99.0 2.3% -27.24 6.6% 11.7%EBITDA 221.1 219.8 0.6% 50.66 -9.5% -11.3% EBITDA margin 68.6% 68.9% -0.5% 65.0% -5.3% -7.2%Net Income (atrib.) 152.4 149.0 2.3% 35.17 -6.4% -10.4%Non recurrent (net) 1.24 5.2 -76.1% 0.00 ns nsNet Income (atrib.) 153.6 154.2 -0.4% 35.17 -6.4% -13.1%BPA 1.84 1.84 -0.4% 0.42 -6.4% -13.1%

Estimates Bankia Bolsa

Our analysis: The last quarter is usually a ripe scenario for BME’s executives to refer to stability and the substantial dividend policy – especially when referring to the extraordinary remuneration.

Consensus BME (EURm) 2011 2010 y/yTotal Ope income 317 326 -3.00%Total Ope expenses -99.7 -103 -3.40%EBITDA 215 223 -3.70%Net Profit 150 154 -2.70%Source Financial Inquiry

Conclusion: Apart from 2011 results, the net cash position and dividend (9.6% yield), there are other aspects we expect the company to refer to, such as alternative platform’s market share in Spain, the impact from lifting the prohibition on short selling and an update regarding the integration of capital markets. Buy reiterated.

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BOLSAS Y MERCADOS ESPANOLES SA IBEX 35 (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: BBVA 7%; BdE 5%; La Caixa 5%; BFA 4%; BNPP 3%;

Analyst(s):

Javier Bernat, Bankia Bolsa [email protected]

+34 91 436 7816



D’Ieteren Belgium/General Retailers Analyser

D'Ieteren (Accumulate)

Accumulate



from Buy

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg IETB.BR/DIE BB


Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 7,054 5,748 5,516EBITDA (m) 722 509 485EBITDA margin 10.2% 8.9% 8.8%EBIT (m) 420 341 319EBIT margin 6.0% 5.9% 5.8%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 221 232 257ROCE 8.7% 10.4% 9.6%Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,828 609 415Net Debt/Equity 1.2 0.4 0.2Debt/EBITDA 2.5 1.2 0.9Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 6.5 12.6 22.7EV/Sales 0.7 0.5 0.5EV/EBITDA 6.5 5.2 5.8EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.2 5.1 5.8EV/EBIT 11.1 7.7 8.8P/E (adj.) 12.0 6.0 8.9P/BV 1.8 1.3 1.3OpFCF yield 2.8% 10.2% 10.2%Dividend yield 1.0% 1.2% 1.5%EPS (adj.) 3.95 5.70 4.59BVPS 26.19 26.74 30.25DPS 0.43 0.50 0.60

FY11: great results, subdued outlook The facts: D’Ieteren’s FY11 well exceeded our forecasts and management guidance: Group Recurring PBT growth was 10.7% vs. our 5.2%. Belron’s performance was quite strong in 2H11, albeit that organic growth remained negative. The outlook is rather cautious, with guidance for a 25% decline in Group Recurring PBT (including 2% impact of VdFin JV). The company hosts an analyst meeting at 9:30am CET which will also be webcast. Our analysis: Sales of EUR 5,977m were ahead of expectations (EUR 5,866m) mainly due to Vehicle Distribution (EUR 3,208m vs. our EUR 2,976m). Sales at Belron were in line with our forecasts. Belron’s volumes were down 3.0% for the year or roughly 1.9% for the second half (based on the rounded absolute numbers). Mainly Europe was quite weak with an organic sales decline of 4.6% (was -3% in 1H11), reflecting mild winter weather and the adverse economic climate. The company mentioned market share gains however. Belron’s underlying operating margin was up 34bps for the year. However, the unusual and re-measurement items on the operating line at Belron of EUR -27.5m were worse than expected (EUR 12m flagged in the November trading update). A summary of the numbers is shown below. Net debt of EUR 850m was higher than anticipated. Working capital increased at Vehicle Distribution (EUR 53.0m, perhaps reasonable given the level of activity at year-end), and (net) purchase of vehicles for operating lease activities was also significantly higher than the year before (EUR 77.3m vs. EUR 54.5m). Belron’s working capital went up as well (EUR 53.6m cash out). The outlook is rather cautious. The company guides for a decline in Group Recurring PBT of 25% (this includes the impact of the reclassification of the lease activities which will be in the VDFin joint venture with VW from early FY12 to the tune of 2%). Management is usually cautious, but we believe this is below consensus estimates. The value of the put options was EUR 154m, which values Belron’s equity at EUR 35 per D’Ieteren share. The dividend goes up to EUR 0.8 per share, a sizeable increase (vs. EUR 0.425 the year before). Conclusion & Action: We are cutting our rating to Accumulate our target price to EUR 46 per share given the outlook and the somewhat lower than expected quality of these results. We will be revising our numbers after the analyst meeting.

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D'IETEREN Belgium All Share (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Nayarit Group 34%; SPDG 25%; Cobepa 4%; Own shares 1.29%;

Analyst(s):

Marc Leemans, CFA, Bank Degroof [email protected]

+32 (0) 2 287 9361

D'IETEREN (EURm) 2010 1H11 2H11E FY11E CONS FY11ASales 5,533.8 3,175.4 2,589.7 5,748.0 5,866.0 5,977.3

Vehicle Distribution 2,732.9 1,716.1 1,259.6 2,975.7 3,208.3Belron 2,800.9 1,459.3 1,330.1 2,772.3 2,769.0

Recurring EBIT 348.2 203.5 143.4 346.9 349.0 377.3Vehicle Distribution 92.6 80.6 30.6 111.2 114.9Belron 255.6 122.9 112.8 235.7 262.3

Unusual and rem. items -36.4 -6.2 0.0 -6.2 -25.7EBIT 328.0 197.3 143.4 340.7 351.6

Vehicle Distribution 92.6 80.6 30.6 111.2 116.7Belron 235.4 116.7 112.8 229.5 234.8

Current Financial result -116.5 -51.1 -33.8 -84.9 0.0Group Recurring PBT 275.7 167.0 122.0 290.2 305.8

Vehicle Distribution 64.4 68.1 28.9 97.0 92.7Belron 211.3 98.9 93.1 193.1 213.1

Growth Group Recurring PBT 42.6% -5.8% 24.2% 5.2% 10.7%Vehicle Distribution 50.2% 32.5% 122.7% 50.7% 43.9%Belron 40.5% -21.5% 9.1% -8.6% 0.9%

Source: Company data, Inquiry Financial Europe AB, ESN estimates



DOCDATA Netherlands/Software & Computer Services Analyser

DOCDATA (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg DOCD.AS/DOCD NA

Market capitalisation (EURm) 89Current N° of shares (m) 7Free float 36% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 8,676Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 0Price high 12 mth (EUR) 14.50Price low 12 mth (EUR) 9.51Abs. perf. 1 mth -0.30%Abs. perf. 3 mth 12.08%Abs. perf. 12 mth 38.52%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 104 127 141EBITDA (m) 9 13 17EBITDA margin 8.3% 10.0% 11.8%EBIT (m) 5 9 13EBIT margin 4.9% 7.1% 9.2%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 4 7 10ROCE 40.2% 46.7% 75.2%Net debt/(cash) (m) (6) (3) (6)Net Debt/Equity -0.5 -0.2 -0.4Debt/EBITDA -0.6 -0.3 -0.3Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 217.1 high (33.2)EV/Sales 0.5 0.7 0.6EV/EBITDA 5.9 7.2 4.9EV/EBITDA (adj.) 5.9 7.2 4.9EV/EBIT 10.1 10.2 6.4P/E (adj.) 14.9 14.1 8.7P/BV 5.0 7.0 6.1OpFCF yield 21.0% 9.7% 14.0%Dividend yield 2.6% 3.6% 5.7%EPS (adj.) 0.59 1.03 1.54BVPS 1.78 2.07 2.21DPS 0.35 0.49 0.77

E-commerce strong, IAI weak, cautious FY12 outlook The facts: Docdata reported FY11 results

Total FY10Adj FY11E FY11A

Sales 96.2 121.5 130.7EBIT excluding incidental items 5.5 9.4 9.5EBIT margin (%) 5.7% 7.7% 7.3%

Net profit 2.5 6.8 6.8Net profit adjusted 3.8 7.2 7.2Source: Docdata, SNS Securities Research

Our analysis: Docdata reported results that were better than expected at the Ecommerce level but below expectation at the IAI level. The E-commerce division saw revenues grow organically by 42% to EUR 111m, higher than our estimate. EBIT margins improved from close to 2% to well over 6%, even better than we had anticipated. Growth was generated mainly in the Netherlands (Bol.com, V&D, Bijenkorf and Zalando) and Germany (Zalando).

E-commerce (excl. Media) FY10A FY11E FY11A

Sales 78.0 105.9 110.8Cos 60.1 80.3 84.7Gross margin 18.0 25.6 26.1Gross margin (%) 23.0% 24.2% 23.6%

SGA 16.5 19.3 18.8EBITe 1.5 6.3 7.3EBIT margin(%) 1.9% 5.9% 6.6%Source: Docdata, SNS Securities Research

The IAI division reported in line sales but the product mix and investments in the organisation (more commercial firepower and opex investments in product development) have led to lower gross margins and operating income. Te order book amounted to just EUR 2.9m, meaning that little orders were signed in 2H11. This explains why Docdata revenue and EBIT at IAI in FY12 will be lower.

IAI FY10A FY11E FY11A

Sales 18.2 15.6 15.7Cos 11.3 9.8 10.5Gross margin 6.9 5.8 5.2Gross margin (%) 38.0% 37.0% 33.1%

SGA 2.9 2.7 3.0EBITe 4.0 3.1 2.2EBIT margin (%) 22.0% 20.0% 14.0%Source: Docdata, SNS Securities Research

Docdata remains positive about FY12 but refrains from providing guidance (it never does actually). The company does mention that it expects limited growth in FY12 from existing clients and that it will focus in E-commerce on the Benelux, the UK and Germany, helped by two new MDs in the latter regions. Docdata also mentions that it will enter new areas in 2012, probably following Zalando. Despite substantial investments in FY11, the balance sheet remains strong with a net cash position of EUR 7.8m although that will be impacted by the acquisition of a small supplier in 1Q12 (to be acquired company has EUR 2m revenues). That explains the increased dividend of EUR 0.5, in line with our estimate. Conclusion & Action: Every strong results at E-commerce but a slightly worrying development at IAI (order intake), which may be just a hiccup due to macro economic conditions. FY12 statements of limited growth may not be well received as E-commerce markets are expected to grow in FY12 as well.

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DOCDATA Amsterdam Small Cap Index (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Kempen Capital management 25%; Lindenbergh 10%; Kruizinga 10%;

Analyst(s):

Martijn den Drijver, SNS Securities [email protected]

+312 0 5508636



Elia Belgium/Utilities Analyser

Elia (Accumulate)

Accumulate




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ELI.BR/ELI BB



Good results - dividend up by 5% The facts: The company’s FY11 earnings were pretty strong, with underlying earnings up 11.6% and basic EPS of EUR 2.28. The dividend will be raised to EUR 1.47 per share, up from EUR 1.40. Management hosts an analyst meeting at the company’s headquarters at 9:00am CET. Our analysis: Strong earnings, mainly driven by the Belgian operations. EBITDA and EBIT were up 5.1% and 9.6% respectively in Belgium on higher revenues. Finance charges were higher (FY10 included the capital gain on Belpex) as were income tax expenses. Consolidated net was up 11.7% to EUR 105.7m on higher OLOs (EUR 10.3m), additional savings and revenues (EUR 1.8m), and a number of one-offs. Capex in Belgium of EUR 130.4m pertained to high-voltage substations and high-voltage cables. At 50hertz Transmission, revenues were more or less stable on the year before (pro forma 12 months, including deviations from approved budget in FY10). REBITDA and REBIT were down due to positive one-off corrections in FY10 (EUR 5.5m), the absence of one-off auction revenue booked in FY10 (EUR 9.6m) and higher personnel and maintenance costs (EUR 9.6m). Capital expenditures were EUR 245.4m in FY11, up 37% on the year before. The consolidated key figures are shown below. The company did not give an outlook, apart from saying that it looks confidently into FY12. The investments for Belgium in FY12 are expected to be EUR 138.8m. 50Hertz transmission has an investment budget of EUR 231m, EUR 123m of which to be spent on off-shore projects (Elia’s part is 60%).

Conclusion & Action: We are maintaining our Accumulate rating ahead of the analyst meeting. Equity per share is now EUR 34. Elia is a good place to put money to work for investors seeking a safe yield with inflation protection features.

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ELIA Belgium All Share (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Publi-T 45%; Publipart 3%;

Analyst(s):

Marc Leemans, CFA, Bank Degroof [email protected]

+32 (0) 2 287 9361

EURm FY09 FY10 FY11 FY11/FY10

Revenue 771.3 1,037.5 1,278.4 23.2%EBITDA (recurring) 327.9 409.4 448.9 9.6%EBIT 225.8 281.9 308.0 9.3%Once off gain on 50Hz 278.5Financial charges -120.5 -123.2 -128.6 4.4%Associates -1.0 -1.2Income tax -20.0 -34.0 -43.3 27.4%Consolidated net 84.3 401.7 137.5 -65.8%

Attributable net 84.0 401.7 -100.0%Adj. EPS 1.75 2.26 2.28 0.9%DPS 1.39 1.40 1.47 5.0%Source: Company Data, ESN calculations



Ence Spain/Basic Resources Analyser

Ence (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ENC.MC/ENC SM

Market capitalisation (EURm) 507Current N° of shares (m) 258Free float 42% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 582,485Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 1Price high 12 mth (EUR) 2.84Price low 12 mth (EUR) 1.63Abs. perf. 1 mth 3.97%Abs. perf. 3 mth 11.02%Abs. perf. 12 mth -20.77%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 831 831 785EBITDA (m) 178 153 118EBITDA margin 21.5% 18.4% 15.0%EBIT (m) 117 91 56EBIT margin 14.1% 11.0% 7.2%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 65 46 26ROCE 8.7% 6.3% 3.8%Net debt/(cash) (m) 172 235 256Net Debt/Equity 0.2 0.3 0.3Debt/EBITDA 1.0 1.5 2.2Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 6.1 8.9 6.1EV/Sales 1.0 0.8 1.0EV/EBITDA 4.5 4.6 6.6EV/EBITDA (adj.) 4.5 4.6 6.6EV/EBIT 6.8 7.7 13.8P/E (adj.) 9.5 9.9 19.6P/BV 0.8 0.6 0.7OpFCF yield 21.2% 21.5% 23.5%Dividend yield 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%EPS (adj.) 0.25 0.18 0.10BVPS 2.97 2.94 2.95DPS 0.10 0.10 0.10

4Q’11 results The facts: ENCE presented the following results:

ENCE: 4Q11 RESULTS2010 %sles 2011 %sles %11/10 2011e %var

Sales 830.8 100% 825.5 100% -1% 831 -1%EBITDA 178.3 21.5% 139.1 16.9% -22% 153 -9%Depreciation & provision -61.0 -7% -59.1 -7% -3%EBIT 117.3 14.1% 80.1 9.7% -32% 91 -12%Financial Results -27.0 -3% -23.1 -3% -14%EBT 90.3 10.9% 57.0 6.9% -37% 66 -14%Taxes -25.6 -3% -15.8 -2% -38% -21 -23%Net Profit reported 64.7 7.8% 41.2 5.0% -36% 46 -10%Source: Bank ia bolsa estimates

Our analysis: Results below forecasts due to the weaker 4Q’11 including lower cellulose prices. EBITDA net of hedges, compensations and provisions would be EUR152.1m, in line with forecasts. ENCE’s BoD will propose a cash dividend of EUR0.07/share at the next AGM and a bonus issue of 1 treasury stock x 26 ordinary shares. Conclusion: Cash cost dropped from EUR377 in 2010 to EUR366 in 2011 (-3%), reaching EUR352m in 4Q’11. In January, costs continued dropping to EUR340/ton, which together with cellulose prices increasing triggers positive expectations in results. We maintain our positive stance on the stock and maintain our Buy recommendation.

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ENCE IGBM (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Retos Operativos XXI 22%; Alcor Holding 20%; Saving Banks 10%;

Analyst(s):


+34 91 436 7814



Fcc Spain/Construction & Materials Analyser

Fcc (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg FCC.MC/FCC SM


Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 12,114 11,270 11,162EBITDA (m) 1,435 1,269 1,270EBITDA margin 11.8% 11.3% 11.4%EBIT (m) 774 755 648EBIT margin 6.4% 6.7% 5.8%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 253 219 222ROCE 4.3% 4.1% 3.6%Net debt/(cash) (m) 7,749 6,320 6,157Net Debt/Equity 2.4 1.9 1.8Debt/EBITDA 5.4 5.0 4.8Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 3.8 3.4 3.2EV/Sales 0.7 0.6 0.6EV/EBITDA 6.0 5.7 5.5EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.0 5.7 5.5EV/EBIT 11.2 9.6 10.8P/E (adj.) 9.9 11.7 11.0P/BV 1.0 0.9 0.9OpFCF yield -0.4% -3.9% 0.0%Dividend yield 7.4% 6.8% 6.8%EPS (adj.) 1.99 1.72 1.74BVPS 20.13 21.32 21.88DPS 1.43 1.30 1.31

Bulky provisions in cement and improving working capital The facts: FCC reported net profit -64% (EUR108m) due to high provisions in cement and others (EUR403m). In recurrent terms, we estimate earnings reaching EUR207m (-17%). EBITDA fell 8% to EUR1,252m (6.6% l-f-l) and sales -1% to EUR11, 754m. We highlight the growth in services and growing internationalization.

SALES 2010 2011 % 2011e Published/EstimatedConstruction 6,693.6 6,686.2 -0.1% 6,202.1 7.8%Services 3,672.2 3,735.4 1.7% 3,745.5 -0.3%Versia 753.3 767.3 1.9% 785.8 -2.4%Cement 846.3 609.1 -28.0% 607.5 0.3%Adjustments -57.3 -43.2 -24.6% -70.9 -39.1%TOTAL 11,908.1 11,754.8 -1.3% 11,270.0 4.3%EBITDA 2010 2011e % 2011e Published/EstimatedConstruction 355.5 303.9 -14.5% 306.1 -0.7%Services 657.7 697.9 6.1% 689.4 1.2%Versia 139.0 114.9 -17.3% 113.9 0.8%Cement 216.7 150.1 -30.7% 157.9 -5.0%Adjustments -2.8 -14.5 417.9% 1.7 -967.3%TOTAL 1,366.1 1,252.3 -8.3% 1,269.0 -1.3%RESULTS ACCOUNT 2010 2011e % 2011e Published/EstimatedAmortisations/Other -588.2 -851.5 44.8% -514.3 65.6%Financial result -332.0 -411.5 23.9% -372.6 10.4%Other results -14.6 32.4 -321.9% 18.3 -Associates 12.9 33.3 158.1% 31.0 7.4%Ordinary Result 444.2 55.0 -87.6% 431.4 -87.3%Net Income 301.2 108.2 -64.1% 300.0 -63.9%

Source: FCC. Estimates Bankia Bolsa

Our analysis: 1) Capital: waiting on how the debt collection procedure with municipalities and autonomous communities will be implemented. In March local companies will send the pending bills and in May payments are expected to begin. The doubt is the payment order. In FCC debts complying with the set criteria rise to EUR1,700m of which EUR1,275m is in services and the rest construction. Municipalities represent 60% of the total. In our view it is an excellent starting point to improve public client collections, although we have not modified our estimates in this line until the process is clarified. Also pending is if the Government will oblige the transfer of part of these collections to construction companies’ suppliers. 2) Asset sales: the sale of FCC Energía and Giant are in advanced stages, although may not be carried out in 1Q’12. We also expect handling to be sold in 2012. 3) Internationalisation: 52% sales, increasing 13%, construction increasing +18% and services +7%. 4) Results: The positive margin in services stands out. On the negative side are construction and cement, with bulky falls in Spain. 5) Portfolios: construction fell 4%, although would rise to +8% if we consider the contracts recently awarded. Services increased 1%. 6) Debt: EUR1,100m syndicated loan matures. EUR451m in April – negotiations in very advanced stages. Liquidity EUR3,500m. Conclusion: The focus point in FCC is the improved public payments to suppliers announced by the government and asset sales. The starting point is very positive, although some doubts are pending such as how the process will be structured. Buy reiterated.

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FCC Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: B-1998 54%; Treasury stock/Other 11%; RBS 3%;

Analyst(s):

Rafael Fernández de Heredia, Bankia Bolsa [email protected]

+34 91 436 78 08



Fourlis Holdings Greece/General Retailers Analyser

Fourlis Holdings (Hold)

Hold




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg FRLr.AT/FOYRK GA

Market capitalisation (EURm) 66Current N° of shares (m) 51Free float 62% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 40,487Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 0Price high 12 mth (EUR) 6.18Price low 12 mth (EUR) 1.29Abs. perf. 1 mth -16.77%Abs. perf. 3 mth -43.67%Abs. perf. 12 mth -78.17%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 638 440 458EBITDA (m) 47 30 37EBITDA margin 7.4% 6.7% 8.1%EBIT (m) 36 17 23EBIT margin 5.7% 3.9% 5.1%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 21 5 7ROCE 12.4% 5.0% 6.6%Net debt/(cash) (m) 116 151 158Net Debt/Equity 0.5 0.7 0.7Debt/EBITDA 2.5 5.1 4.3Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 6.3 2.7 2.8EV/Sales 0.6 0.4 0.4EV/EBITDA 7.9 6.7 5.3EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.9 6.7 5.3EV/EBIT 10.4 11.4 8.5P/E (adj.) 13.9 16.1 9.3P/BV 1.3 0.3 0.3OpFCF yield -3.5% 55.8% 23.3%Dividend yield 0.0% 1.3% 2.5%EPS (adj.) 0.40 0.09 0.14BVPS 4.25 4.30 4.38DPS 0.00 0.02 0.03

Weak performance in 4Q11 The facts: Fourlis announced a weak set of financial results for FY11. Sales came in at EUR 438.3m in 2011 (-31.3% y-o-y, in line with our and consensus estimate), EBITDA came in at EUR 28.0m (-40.9% y-o-y), beating our forecast by 2% but missing consensus estimates by 5%, while net profits reached EUR 2.3m in 2011 (-85% y-o-y, well below our (-32%) and consensus (-21%) estimates). In 4Q11, Fourlis recorded net profits of EUR 0.7m (-92% y-o-y). Fourlis FY11 results

EUR m FY10 FY11 % YoY FY11e IBG vs. IBG Sales 638.2 438.3 -31.3% 436.7 0.4% Reported EBITDA 47.3 28.0 -40.9% 27.4 2.1% margin 7.4% 6.4%

6.3%

Net earnings 15.1 2.3 -84.8% 3.4 -32.4%

Source: The company, IBG Our analysis: On an annual basis, IKEA’s revenues retreated by 1.8% y-o-y to EUR 313.7m, Intersport’s turnover shaped at EUR 90.8m (+12% y-o-y, aided by the new business in Turkey and store expansion in Greece and Romania), while the turnover of the wholesale division was down by 86% y-o-y to EUR 32.7m. On a comparable basis, the turnover of the wholesale division dropped by 12% y-o-y in 2011. Finally, the ‘New Look’ asset generated revenues of EUR 1.2m in 2011. We remind that the turnover of the wholesale division was negatively impacted by the discontinuation of the distribution agreement with Samsung. In the quarter, IKEA sales decreased by 3.8% y-o-y to EUR 91.9m, while the turnover of Intersport rose by 11% y-o-y to EUR 24.8m. Consolidated sales were down by 28.6% y-o-y to EUR124.8m in 4Q11, negatively affected by the lower contribution of the wholesale division as well as the weak performance of IKEA business. The EBITDA margin stood at 6.4% in 2011, falling by 100 bps y-o-y. All divisions felt increased pressure and especially IKEA (-380bps) and Intersport (-220bps). In the quarter, consolidated EBITDA shaped at EUR 7.5m (-55% y-o-y) on a 6.1% margin (a 350bps decline). IKEA’s EBITDA posted a 42% y-o-y decline to EUR 7.0m (500bps margin erosion), while Intersport’s profits had similar characteristics (EBITDA retreated by 50% y-o-y to EUR 1.3m, the margin erosion was 650bps).

Conclusion & Action: Fourlis’s FY11 results were weak, coming in below our and consensus estimates on the bottom line. In our view, the erosion of the EBITDA margin in IKEA and Intersport in 4Q11 reflects the challenges that the group currently faces in Greece and Romania. Given the deteriorating economic environment in Greece, we will downward adjust our P&L estimates for 2012 and 2013, remaining quite cautious for the stock. We remind that the management will present its financial results to the analysts today.

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FOURLIS HOLDINGS Athex Composite (Rebased)Source: Factset Shareholders: Dafni Fourli 13%; Capital Research and

Management Company 10%; Fidelity European Fund 5%;

Analyst(s):

Dimitris Birbos, Marfin Analysis [email protected]

+30 210 81 73 392

Natalia Svyrou-Svyriadi Marfin Analysis

[email protected]

+30 210 81 73 384



Gesco Germany/Industrial Engineering Analyser

Gesco (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg GSCG.DE/GSC GY

Market capitalisation (EURm) 203Current N° of shares (m) 3Free float 90% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 7,933Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 0Price high 12 mth (EUR) 72.49Price low 12 mth (EUR) 53.15Abs. perf. 1 mth 3.52%Abs. perf. 3 mth 12.41%Abs. perf. 12 mth 12.94%


Capital increase of ~10% paves the way for acquisitions The facts: Yesterday evening Gesco announced that it has decided to increase its share capital by about 10%. Proceeds are likely to be used for future acquisitions. Our analysis: Capital increase of 10% - existing shareholders are excluded: Gesco announced to increase its share capital under partial consideration of existing authorised capital. Against contributions in cash and under exclusion of existing shareholders´ subscription rights, Gesco will thus be issuing up to 302,000 new no-par value registered shares representing a proportional value of share capital of up to EUR 785,200 (~10 % of current share capital). The new shares are to be placed via an accelerated bookbuilding process and are fully entitled to dividends for the 2011/2012 financial year. Proceeds from the capital increase are to be used to acquire further industrial SMEs in accordance with the GESCO business model. Further improved balance sheet metrics: By assuming that Gesco issues 10% new shares (302k shares) at a price of ~EUR 65 per shares we calculate that Gesco is likely to receive net proceeds of EUR 19m. Net financial debt (NFD) of the group will thus come down to ~EUR 2m (previously: EUR 21m). Gearing (NFD/equity) should be ~1% (previously: 17%). Clearly, by ways of the capital increase Gesco will further improve its already strong balance sheet metrics. Dilution of ~8% for FY 12/13e: By assuming a successful capital increase of ~10% with net proceeds of ~ EUR 19m we estimate it to be dilutive by around 8% in FY 12/13e as we expect EPS FY12/13e to be ~EUR 6.7 (incorporating the higher amount of shares of ~3.32m vs. 3.02m shares previously as well as by assuming a positive effect on the financial result). This does however not yet include any potential effects of acquisitions which are obviously in sight. Conclusion & Action: The announced capital increase is a rather small one. It will however still further improve Gesco’s already strong balance sheet metrics whilst the dilution on EPS should be around 8%. For us this is a clear sign that Gesco is on the verge to make further acquisitions in upcoming quarters. Only recently it had announced the acquisition of WBL Werkzeugbau (a specialist manufacturer of high-performance tools mainly for the auto-/supplier industry). With this step it also seems likely that Gesco might pursue a somewhat larger acquisition. This would clearly be welcomed with regard to the long-term development for the company, even though it would also burden results at least in the first year of the acquisition. Overall, an upcoming acquisition (maybe of somewhat larger size) would be a positive step in the right direction as one of the main negatives of the investment case in recent quarters had been a lack of size and also liquidity (daily trading volumes). We remain positive for the shares.

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GESCO Stoxx Industrial Engineering (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Heimeler 10%;

Analyst(s):

Holger Schmidt, CEFA, Equinet Bank [email protected]

+49 69 58 99 74 32



GFT Technologies AG Germany/Software & Computer Services Analyser

GFT Technologies AG (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg GFTG.DE/GFT GY


Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 248 270 220EBITDA (m) 12 12 12EBITDA margin 4.9% 4.4% 5.5%EBIT (m) 11 10 11EBIT margin 4.4% 3.9% 4.8%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 8 8 8ROCE 13.4% 10.6% 11.7%Net debt/(cash) (m) (26) (22) (31)Net Debt/Equity -0.4 -0.3 -0.4Debt/EBITDA -2.2 -1.8 -2.5Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (23.0) (26.0) (23.5)EV/Sales 0.3 0.1 0.2EV/EBITDA 5.8 3.2 3.2EV/EBITDA (adj.) 5.8 3.2 3.2EV/EBIT 6.5 3.6 3.7P/E (adj.) 13.2 8.8 10.4P/BV 1.5 0.9 1.0OpFCF yield 5.1% -2.3% 15.8%Dividend yield 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%EPS (adj.) 0.31 0.31 0.30BVPS 2.71 2.92 3.06DPS 0.15 0.15 0.15

Q4 & FY 2011 Preview The facts: GFT Technologies will report its Q4 & FY 2011 results on Thursday, 1. March 2012. A conference call for analysts and investors is scheduled for 11:00 CET the same day. Our analysis: GFT Technologies warned the market in October 2011 that it would not be able to meet its target of revenues of EUR 275m and a pre-tax result of EUR 13m in FY 2011. The main reason for this warning was a sluggish demand from financial industry. As a new guidance, GFT has targeted to reach EUR 270m of revenues and EUR 11m of pre-tax profit in FY 2011. This would imply a yoy decrease of revenues of 11% to EUR 62m in Q4 2011 as well a drop of 30% in EBT to EUR 1.9m. This guidance is in line with our estimates for Q4 2011. GFT has stated in October that it expects business to pick up again in FY 2012. As the overall economic environment has improved since then, we would expect them to reiterate this guidance. Our estimates, which are currently based on a recessionary scenario, are most likely too conservative. We will review them following the reporting. Conclusion & Action: We will review target price and recommendation after the FY 2011 reporting.

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GFT TECHNOLOGIES Stoxx Software & Computer Services (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Ulrich Dietz 28%; Maria Dietz 10%; Dr. Markus Kerber 5%;

Analyst(s):

Tim Schuldt, CFA, Equinet Bank [email protected]

+49 69 5899 7433

Quarterly developmentEUR m Q4 2011e Q4 2010 % YoY

Revenues 62.1 69.5 -11%of w hich: Services 33.7 30.3 11%of w hich: Resourcing 28.6 39.2 -27%

EBITDA 2.2 2.9 -24%EBITDA Margin 3.5% 4.1% -63 BP

EBIT 1.8 2.5 -29%EBIT Margin 2.9% 3.6% -74 BP

EBT 1.9 2.8 -30%EBT Margin 3.1% 4.0% -87 BPof w hich: Services 1.4 1.7 -17%of w hich: Resourcing 0.5 1.5 -63%

Net income 1.4 1.9 -29%

Source: GFT Technologies, equinet Research



Kendrion Netherlands/General Industrials Analyser

Kendrion (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg SVEL.AS/KENDR NA



Strong top line in Q4 The facts: Kendrion reported its 4Q11 results with revenues up 10% and EBITA up 2 to EUR 6.7m. Full year sales growth of 21% easily beat guidance of at least 15% growth. Our analysis: Despite the overall economic uncertainty, Kendrion again reported good sales growth of 10% in Q4, driven by all business segments and in particular Passenger Car Systems. Geographically, Kendrion is growing strongly outside its home base Germany with 19% growth in the US and 76% in the Far East, whilst growth in Germany was still a solid 11%.

EBITA rose 2% to EUR 6,7m, below our expectation. EBITA margin came in at 10.3%, down from 11.2%. The main reason for the lower margin is the pressure on input costs as there was some delay in passing on the higher prices for permanent magnets. Full year margin was up 60bps despite the higher input costs and start up costs in India within the business unit Commercial Vehicle Systems.

Kendrion

In EUR m 4Q10 4Q11 %

change 2010 2011

% change

Revenues 58.9 64.9 10% 222 268 21% EBITA 6.6 6.7 2% 24.2 30.7 27% EBITA margin 11.2% 10.3%

10.9% 11.5%

Adjusted Net profit 4.4 4.4 0% 14.8 20.5 39% Adjusted EPS

1.30 1.79 38%

Dividend per share 0.59 0.62 Source: Kendrion, SNS Securities Research

Despite the economic uncertainty, Kendrion expects both revenue and profit to further grow in 2012, with a healthy order book at the start of 2012. Kendrion particularly expects further growth in Industrial Magnetic and Industrial Drive, coming from projects acquired and developed in the past few years. EBITA margin could be a bit lower due to planned expansion of the company’s development capacity.

Conclusion & Action: Kendrion reported a strong Q4 on revenues while profitability was a bit lower than expected. Kendrion continues to expand its activities world-wide, both organically and though selective acquisitions. Long term market trends remain favourable for Kendrion and the company should be able to maintain its EBITA margin above the targeted 10% level. Valued at EV/EBITDA 2012E of 4.9 we rate Kendrion Buy.

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KENDRION EuroNext (Rebased)Source: Factset

Analyst(s):

Gert Steens, SNS Securities [email protected]

+312 0 5508639

Johan van den Hooven SNS Securities

[email protected]

+312 0 5508518



Luxempart Luxembourg/Financial Services Analyser

Luxempart (Accumulate)

Accumulate




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg LUXP.LU/LXMP LX


NAV breakdown (EUR) NAV, m NAV

Core portfolio 527 62%

PE & VC funds 87 10%

Treasury stakes 79 9%

Gross Asset Value 693 81%

Cash & other 161 19%

Taxes 0%

Net Asset Value 854 100% Key financials (EUR) FY10 FY11e Present

NAVps 35.78 35.72 35.59

Discount to NAV -32.3% -36.0% -38.2%

EPS (reported) 0.57

ROE 1.6%

DPS 0.68 0.73 0.78

Dividend yield 2.8% 3.2% 3.5%

Additional investment of EUR 17m in Pescanova The facts: Yesterday evening Luxempart has announced that it is investing EUR 17m in a convertible bond of Pescanova, a Madrid stock exchange listed company that owns the largest European fleet of fishing vessels, and the second largest in the world. Our analysis: In July 2011, Luxempart has bought a 5.1% shareholding in Pescanova for a total consideration of c. EUR 30m. On top of this equity stake, Luxempart is now adding a EUR 17m investment through a convertible bond with a 7 year maturity and 8.75% interest rate. The conversion price amounts to EUR 32.81, which means that upon conversion, Luxempart would increase its stake in the company from 5.1% to 7.5%. Pescanova not only operates fleet of fishing vessels, but also engages in the production, transformation, distribution, and marketing of seafood products for human and animal consumption. The company is primarily involved in obtaining, processing, and trading seafood, including fish and shell fish, as well as deep-frozen foods. It also offers vessels repair and product storage services. The company exports its fish and fish farming products primarily to Japan, the United States, Italy, Germany, and France. Conclusion & Action: This add-on investment in Pescanove is following shortly after the disposal of Utopia and on balance, we expect no sizeable impact on Luxemparts cash pile which we estimate at EUR 161m or 19% of NAV.

We reiterate or Accumulate rating and EUR 26 target price which is based on ESN Research target prices for underlying assets and discount to NAV mean averaging.

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LUXEMPART Shareholders: Foyer Finance 44%; Dexia 10%; Sofina

5%; Luxempart 4%;

Analyst(s):

Hans D’Haese, Bank Degroof [email protected]

+32 (0) 2 287 9223



Martifer Sgps SA Portugal/Renewable Energy Analyser

Martifer Sgps SA (Sell)

Sell




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg MARTI.LS/MAR PL


Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 602 568 579EBITDA (m) 59 28 39EBITDA margin 9.8% 4.9% 6.8%EBIT (m) (21) 5 16EBIT margin nm 0.8% 2.8%Net Profit (adj.)(m) (32) (13) (6)ROCE -2.4% 0.6% 2.0%Net debt/(cash) (m) 343 385 375Net Debt/Equity 1.0 1.2 1.2Debt/EBITDA 5.8 13.8 9.6Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 1.1 1.3 1.6EV/Sales 0.8 0.8 0.8EV/EBITDA 8.1 16.7 11.7EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.1 16.7 11.7EV/EBIT nm 99.0 28.7P/E (adj.) nm nm nmP/BV 0.5 0.4 0.4OpFCF yield 89.0% -0.8% 30.6%Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%EPS (adj.) (0.32) (0.13) (0.06)BVPS 3.09 2.96 2.90DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

2011 results preview The facts: Martifer will publish its 2011 full year results on March 1, after market close. The company will host a conference call with analysts the following day Our analysis: Our valuation of Martifer is based on the set of estimates for 2011 presented in the table below. According to these figures, total Sales should have decreased c. 7% yoy, with the Solar segment’s sales growth compensating most of the Metallic Construction’s sales shortfall. At the EBITDA level our estimates incorporate an overall decrease in operational efficiency, with the EBITDA margin decreasing from 10% in 2010 to 5.1% in 2011. The Net Profit is expected to be less negative than in 2010 (when the company recorded significant impairments) but even so reaching EUR -13m. Conclusion & Action. Bearing in mind Martifer’s 9M11 results, there is a risk that

our current estimates for the full year may actually err on the positive side. However, the company’s sales’ observed seasonality (with the last quarter proving to be the strongest one) does provide some support to our view. At the same time, our estimates for EBITDA (namely in what concerns the Metallic Constructions segment) rely on the company having been able to achieve a level of turnover high enough for the company to offset its fixed costs during the fourth quarter. We must also point out to the fact that, in our opinion, Martifer will be revising down its previous guidance (EUR 750m turnover and above 10% ROE by 2013) in order to account for the current economic environment in Europe and particularly in Portugal: our estimates point to EUR 586m turnover and 0% ROE by 2013. In conclusion, even considering that our expectations for Martifer’s full year results are not positive, we believe that there is a considerable risk of the actual figures falling below them.

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MARTIFER SGPS SA Geral (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: I'm SGPS 42%; FM Soc. Controlo 38%; Treasury Shares 1.33%;

Analyst(s):

José Mota Freitas, Caixa Banco de Investimento [email protected]

+351 22 607 09 31

Consolidated P&L (EURm) 2010 2011e % Chg.

Sales and Services (adj.) 587 546 -7%o.w. Metallic Construction 348 278 -20%o.w. Solar 213 256 20%o.w. Others 26 12 -54%

EBITDA (adj.) 59 28 -53%o.w. Metallic Construction 17 10 -42%o.w. Solar 22 13 -42%o.w. Others 20 5 -73%

EBITDA margin 10.0% 5.1%EBIT -21 5Financial Income (incl. Associates) -21 -25Income before Taxes -42 -21Minority Interest -3 1Net income after minorities -55 -13Source: Company data and Caix aBI Equity Research



MLP Germany/Financial Services Analyser

MLP (Accumulate)

Accumulate




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg MLPG.DE/MLP GR


Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 523 525 601EBITDA (m) 63 33 101EBITDA margin 12.1% 6.3% 16.7%EBIT (m) 47 17 84EBIT margin 9.0% 3.2% 13.9%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 34 29 59ROCE 16.2% 5.6% 27.3%Net debt/(cash) (m) (50) (27) (50)Net Debt/Equity -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Debt/EBITDA -0.8 -0.8 -0.5Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (2,249.3) (36.6) (250.7)EV/Sales 1.5 1.0 1.0EV/EBITDA 12.5 16.5 6.1EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12.5 16.5 6.1EV/EBIT 16.7 32.8 7.3P/E (adj.) 24.2 19.6 11.0P/BV 1.9 1.4 1.5OpFCF yield 10.7% 1.1% 8.5%Dividend yield 5.0% 8.4% 8.4%EPS (adj.) 0.31 0.26 0.54BVPS 3.97 3.77 4.02DPS 0.30 0.50 0.50

Q4 results and DPS slightly better than expected The facts: MLP reported Q4 results slightly better than expected with an EBIT of EUR 14.2m (equinet: EUR 12.2m). The announced dividend per share of EUR 0.60 is also above our estimate of EUR 0.50. MLP expects a slight increase in old-age related revenues and a stronger increase for wealth management revenues for 2012. It sticks to its target of achieving an EBIT margin of 15%. Negatively the number of consultants declined by 1% qoq to (-6% yoy) 2,132. Number of clients went up by 3% yoy (+1% qoq) to 794,500. Our analysis: Total revenues increased by 9% yoy (+66% qoq) to EUR 189m (equinet: EUR 170m) in Q4. Old-age provision revenues showed with an increase of 17% yoy a strong performance. EBIT declined by 53% yoy (Q3 ’11: EUR 2.8m) to EUR 14.2m which was also slightly above our estimate of EUR 12.2m. Excluding one-offs of EUR 19.3m EBIT amounted to EUR 33.5m which is equivalent to an EBIT margin of 18%. Pretax profit declined by 52% yoy (Q3 ’11: EUR 3.3m) to EUR 14.5m and net profit declined by 52% yoy (Q3 ’11: EUR 2.2m) to EUR 10.4m (equinet: EUR 8.8m). For the full year MLP reached a sales increase of 4% yoy which is a good performance in the challenging market environment. Conclusion & Action: MLP reported better than expected Q4 results and announced a higher than estimated dividend. Positively, it sticks to its 15% EBIT margin target. Note that 2011 was burdened by restructuring costs of EUR 33m, for 2012 it does not expect any such costs. With a dividend yield of 10% and a 2012e PER of 11.0x the shares are attractively valued. We stick to our Accumulate rating; we will update our model and target price following today’s analyst meeting.

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MLP MDAX (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Lautenschläger 29%; Swiss Life 10%; HDI 10%; Barmenia 7%; Allianz 6%;

Analyst(s):

Philipp Häßler, CFA, Equinet Bank [email protected]

+49 69 58997 414

MLP - Quarterly Results

In EUR m 4Q11 4Q11e 3Q11 yoy qoq 4Q11consensus

Total revenues 189.0 170.0 114.0 8.8% 65.8% 175.0

Group EBIT 14.2 12.2 2.8 -52.7% 400.0% 13.2EBIT-Margin 7.5% 7.2% 2.5% -9.8%-p. 5.0%-p. 7.5%

Group EBT 14.5 12.2 3.3 -51.8% 334.1% 13.3Group EAT 10.4 8.8 2.2 -51.9% 379.0% 9.7EPS cont. 0.10 0.08 0.02 -51.9% 379.0% 0.09

Sources: MLP, equinet



Morphosys Germany/Biotechnology Analyser

Morphosys (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg MORG.DE/MOR GR


Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 87 103 89EBITDA (m) 16 21 11EBITDA margin 18.3% 20.8% 12.8%EBIT (m) 10 13 3EBIT margin 11.3% 12.5% 3.7%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 9 8 3ROCE 8.7% 12.1% 3.3%Net debt/(cash) (m) (108) (128) (136)Net Debt/Equity -0.6 -0.7 -0.7Debt/EBITDA -6.8 -6.0 -11.9Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (3.9) (15.2) (8.9)EV/Sales 3.6 2.7 3.3EV/EBITDA 19.4 12.9 25.8EV/EBITDA (adj.) 19.4 12.9 25.8EV/EBIT 31.5 21.4 89.9P/E (adj.) 45.5 48.4 nmP/BV 2.3 2.1 2.2OpFCF yield -7.0% 4.7% 1.7%Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%EPS (adj.) 0.41 0.36 0.15BVPS 8.23 8.48 8.66DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

Q4’11 preview The facts: Morphosys is due to report its FY’11 results on March 1st. Our analysis: Q411 results: Revenue should be down 21% YoY to EUR19.2m. The decline in the top line should have been largely anticipated by the market as MOR’s management adjusted its sales guidance below the original EUR105-110m range due to fx effects and minor shifts in milestone payments. At the EBIT level, we expect a loss of EUR7.1 due to higher R&D effort reflecting the costs associated with the development of MOR proprietary programs. All this should however not come as a surprise as Morphosys EBIT guidance for 2011 (loss of EUR10-13m) implies three loss quarters after the very strong Q111. Outlook 2012: For FY12, the comparison base will be tough due to the mega milestone of close to EUR30m received from Novartis in Q1. While we would not rule out further lucrative technological deals in FY12, the management is likely to exclude that from its initial guidance. Therefore, we would expect MOR to guide for a significant lower sales level YoY. Our current revenue expectation stands at EUR89m (Thomson cons.: EUR94m) which still might be a little too optimistic. At the EBIT level, in the Q3’11 call, the management reiterated its strong commitment to maintain its profitability, explaining that the company was not reliant on any income from MOR103 to maintain its profitability. In FY11, a lot of contract manufacturing was done for the requirement of MOR three proprietary programs which we do not expect to reoccur in FY12. Hence MOR should be able to significantly scale down R&D, preserving EBIT of EUR3.3m in FY12, according to our estimates (Thomson cons.: EUR9.7m). Important news flow coming up in FY12? #1/ On the partner side, between H2’11 and H2’12, we estimate that 7 phase II and 5 phase I would have been completed. This, in our view, well indicates a) how MOR clinical partner antibody pipeline is maturing, and b) that the initiation of one or the other phase III could be ahead. #2/ Potentially, MOR could announce further technological alliance with pharma majors, based on its new generation Antibody Technology Ylanthia (which was unveiled in December ‘11). #3/ Importantly, the results of the phase 1b/2a of Morphosys lead proprietary program MOR103 is expected in H1’12. Solid data could back the signing of a lucrative partnering deal.

Conclusion & Action: Beyond the Q4’11 figures, we expect MOR to guide for declining sales and profitability due to the mega milestone received from Novartis in Q1’11. This seems to have been well anticipated in most of model updates since the Q3 reporting. Still the share price could come under pressure around the FY11 reporting. We however reiterate our BUY rating ahead of key news flow in FY12.

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MORPHOSYS Stoxx Biotechnology (Rebased)Source: Factset

Analyst(s):

Edouard Aubery, Equinet Bank [email protected]

+49 69 5899 7439

EUR m Q4 2011e Q4 2010 % 2011e 2010 %

Sales 19.2 24.3 -21% 103.0 87.0 18%EBIT -7.1 1.9 n.m 12.9 9.8 31%EBT -4.9 3.0 n.m 14.1 13.2 7%Net profit -3.3 2.0 n.m 9.8 9.2 6%EPS (€) -0.14 0.09 n.m 0.42 0.41 4%

So urce: M o rpho sys, equinet Research



Nyrstar Belgium/Basic Resources Analyser

Nyrstar (Accumulate)

Accumulate




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg NYR.BR/NYR BB


Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13eSales (m) 3,348 4,002 4,379EBITDA (m) 244 357 476EBITDA margin 7.3% 8.9% 10.9%EBIT (m) 98 213 327EBIT margin 2.9% 5.3% 7.5%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 56 116 189ROCE 3.5% 6.1% 9.1%Net debt/(cash) (m) 718 734 599Net Debt/Equity 0.5 0.5 0.4Debt/EBITDA 2.9 2.1 1.3Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 4.0 5.8 7.8EV/Sales 0.5 0.5 0.4EV/EBITDA 7.4 5.6 3.9EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.8 5.6 3.9EV/EBIT 18.3 9.4 5.7P/E (adj.) 19.9 11.2 6.9P/BV 0.8 0.9 0.8OpFCF yield 9.0% 10.9% 20.6%Dividend yield 2.1% 2.3% 2.6%EPS (adj.) 0.31 0.64 1.03BVPS 7.19 7.67 8.54DPS 0.15 0.17 0.18

Successful completion of the sale of ARA Sydney The facts: This morning Nyrstar announced the completion of the sales of ARA Sydney for a price consideration of AUD 80m (EUR 60m). ARA is a joint venture between Nyrstar and SimsMM. ARA had two facilities, ARA Sydney (lead production of 37,900t) and ARA Melbourne (lead production of 17,200t). The deal was announced in November 15 and just got the requisite regulatory approvals from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (AAAC) and the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB). The sale price is subject to a customary working capital adjustment at completion. Assuming a sale price of EUR 60m, Nyrstar would achieve a capital gain on the sale of its 50% share of ARA Sydney of approximately EUR 15m. Our analysis: Optimisation of the flow sheet with the disposal of non-core assets is still on the agenda. We take the opportunity of this announcement to provide our adjusted scenario following the weaker than expected FY11 underlying EBITDA due to a lower contribution of the mining segment (slower mining ramp up + some lower average grades and some negative impacts due to the metals prices trends in 4Q11).

2011old new old new old new

Sales 3,348 4,400 4,002 4,765 4,379 4,765 4,379% change -9.0% -8.1% -8.1%Underlying EBITDA (cum associates) 265 391 360 482 479 482 479% change -7.9% -0.6% -0.6%Non-recurring -20 -4 -2 -4 -2 -4 -2EBITDA (cum associates) 245 387 358 478 478 478 478% change -7.4% 0.0% 0.0%EBIT 98 253 213 335 327 335 327% change -15.9% -2.3% -2.3%Net result (group) 36 149 115 196 187 196 187% change -23.0% -4.6% -4.6%Net current result (group) 56 152 116 200 189 200 189% change -23.8% -5.7% -5.7%Reported EPS 0.20 0.81 0.63 1.07 1.03 1.07 1.03Adj. EPS 0.31 0.83 0.64 1.10 1.03 1.10 1.03% change -23.8% -5.7% -5.7%Sources : Bank Degroof estimates

20142012 2013Nyrstar: earnings revisions

On top of that TC is set to be cut by about 10%, mining production guidance for 2012 was below our expectations and the 2012 smelter planned shuts might led to some losses in refining metals as well. On the positive side, metal prices are in better shape since year-start. All in all, our 2012 underlying EBITDA estimates was cut by 8% to EUR 360m. Conclusion & Action: This disposal fits with the strategy of optimising the flow sheet in a permanent way. We still believe that management’s backward integration into mining strategy will structurally enhance Nyrstar’s earnings profile. Since the mining production will gradually increase from 87kt in FY10 to 469kt by the end of FY14, the earnings momentum will remain positive the coming years, despite a likely lower remuneration for the smelting activities. Hence we stick to our positive stance on the share. TP is unchanged at EUR 8.5.

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NYRSTAR EuroNext (Rebased) Shareholders: Glencore Holdings 8%; Umicore 3%;

Analyst(s):

Bernard Hanssens, Bank Degroof [email protected]

+32 (0) 2 287 9689



Prisa Spain/Media Analyser

Prisa (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg PRS.MC/PRS SM

Market capitalisation (EURm) 688Current N° of shares (m) 923Free float 76% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 2,620,627Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 3Price high 12 mth (EUR) 2.25Price low 12 mth (EUR) 0.65Abs. perf. 1 mth -7.45%Abs. perf. 3 mth -9.15%Abs. perf. 12 mth -62.75%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 2,823 2,715 2,827EBITDA (m) 596 483 614EBITDA margin 21.1% 17.8% 21.7%EBIT (m) 336 264 391EBIT margin 11.9% 9.7% 13.8%Net Profit (adj.)(m) (38) 20 68ROCE 4.9% 5.0% 6.2%Net debt/(cash) (m) 3,217 3,251 3,094Net Debt/Equity 1.2 1.2 1.1Debt/EBITDA 5.4 6.7 5.0Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 5.2 4.1 4.0EV/Sales 1.5 1.4 1.3EV/EBITDA 6.9 8.0 5.8EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.9 6.9 5.6EV/EBIT 12.3 14.6 9.1P/E (adj.) nm 40.7 10.0P/BV 0.4 0.8 0.7OpFCF yield 29.3% 42.8% 59.3%Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%EPS (adj.) (0.14) 0.02 0.07BVPS 3.75 1.05 1.09DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

Weak results, below forecasts. The facts: Prisa released the following results:

EUR m 2011 2010 % var. 2011 Real vs. Esti.Revenues 2724.5 2822.7 -3.5% 2715.3 0.3%Cost of sales -2210.3 -2226.4 -0.7% -2159.2 2.4%Restructuring cost -77.2 -1.1 -73.5 5.1%Ebitda 436.9 596.3 -26.7% 482.5 -9.5%Goodwill adjustment -252.9 -51.2Associates -13.8 -103.9 n.a. 10.86 n.a.EBT -244.7 73.1 -434.9% 109.4 -323.6%Taxes -148.0 -73.0 102.6% -29.0 410.2%Net Profit -451.2 -72.9 519.2% 18.4 -2550.2%Source: Prisa & Bankia Bolsa estimates

Our analysis: We highlight the following:

Sales: In line with forecasts at Group level, but varied per activity. We highlight the +12.2% revenues in Santillana (thanks to the education campaign in Spain reducing the annual fall to 1.9%). The rest of the divisions fell in line with forecasts: press -7.2% (El País -17% in advertising revenues, below -14% forecast and the sector); Audiovisual -9.6% (subscribers in line, 1,838,432 and ARPU +1.4% o/estimates); Radio -7% (advertising revenues in Spain fell 10% vs. -8% estimated and sector’s -4.3%).

Costs: -0.7% (vs. -3% estimated), resulting in adjusted EBITDA -7.5% below forecasts. The main differences are in radio (-17% vs. estimates) and on the positive side in Audiovisual (+8.7% vs. estimates). Substantial differences in losses contributed from Other Revenues and consolidated adjustments (EUR-63m vs. EUR-26m estimated).

Restructuring costs: accumulating EUR94.8m (vs. EUR108m estimated). Restructuring plan considered completed. Annual savings of EUR64.5m vs. 56m estimated.

Provisions on goodwill, mainly in Portugal, for EUR253m. Media Capital’s book value stands at EUR450m (price of the most recent stake sale). The difference in the equity accounted line includes VME’s reduced EUR22m goodwill. Taxes include a provision of EUR183m to front possible unfavourable solutions in a number of concepts currently under discussion, mainly deductions on exporting activities. Prisa calculates a maximum cash outflow of EUR46m. Adjusting the net result with the extraordinary items, the result would have been EUR1.6m vs. EUR 28.6m in 2010.

Conclusion: Weak results. The operating performance is below forecasts, with a negative impact from erosions and provisions. From the CC the company seems positive regarding 2012 despite the deteriorating macro scenario except in Press and Radio España (to be adjusted negatively). Negative impact in 2012 from the adjusted base, partially compensate from the completed restructuring process (vs. EUR29m estimated in 2010).

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PRISA Stoxx Media (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: RUCANDIO 24%;

Analyst(s):

Maria Rivas Rodriguez, Bankia Bolsa [email protected]

+34 91 436 7815



Royal BAM Group Netherlands/Construction & Materials Analyser

Royal BAM Group (Accumulate)

Accumulate




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg BAMN.AS/BAMNB NA

Market capitalisation (EURm) 796Current N° of shares (m) 232Free float 74% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,198,197Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 5Price high 12 mth (EUR) 5.76Price low 12 mth (EUR) 2.17Abs. perf. 1 mth -1.35%Abs. perf. 3 mth 41.40%Abs. perf. 12 mth -26.40%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 7,611 7,815 7,662EBITDA (m) 206 242 251EBITDA margin 2.7% 3.1% 3.3%EBIT (m) (30) 148 159EBIT margin nm 1.9% 2.1%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 139 119 109ROCE -2.3% 8.8% 8.6%Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,327 1,036 645Net Debt/Equity 1.2 0.9 0.5Debt/EBITDA 6.4 4.3 2.6Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (9.2) 16.2 25.1EV/Sales 0.1 0.1 0.1EV/EBITDA 5.3 3.0 3.1EV/EBITDA (adj.) 5.3 3.0 3.1EV/EBIT nm 4.9 5.0P/E (adj.) 7.7 6.4 7.3P/BV 1.0 0.6 0.6OpFCF yield 11.9% 9.0% 5.3%Dividend yield 0.9% 6.0% 5.5%EPS (adj.) 0.60 0.51 0.47BVPS 4.73 5.09 5.36DPS 0.03 0.21 0.19

Tebodin sold for EUR 145m The facts: BAM will sell Tebodin to Bilfinger Berger for EUR 145m. The transaction is expected to close in 2Q12. Our analysis: The sale of Tebodin will generate much higher proceeds than we anticipated. We had expected proceeds of at least EUR 75m and we heard market rumors of around EUR 100m. As such, we believe that this transaction will be welcomed by the market as well. The cash from the transaction will be used for improvement of the financial position. We expect that BAM will be cash positive on a recourse basis after this sale. Conclusion & Action: The sale of Tebodin generated proceeds that were way ahead of our and we also believe market estimates and as such we expect a positive price reaction of shares BAM. BAM’s already solid financial position will be further improved.

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ROYAL BAM GROUP AEX (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: ING 10%; A. van Herk 9%; Delta Lloyd 6%; Governance for Owners 5%;

Analyst(s):

Edwin de Jong, SNS Securities [email protected]

+312 0 5508569



Schuler AG Germany/Industrial Engineering Analyser

Schuler AG (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg SCUGe.DE/SCUN GR


Key financials (EUR) 09/11 09/12e 09/13eSales (m) 959 1,150 1,219EBITDA (m) 84 121 132EBITDA margin 8.7% 10.5% 10.8%EBIT (m) 53 95 105EBIT margin 5.6% 8.3% 8.6%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 25 52 63ROCE 15.7% 18.1% 19.0%Net debt/(cash) (m) (138) (32) (62)Net Debt/Equity -0.7 -0.1 -0.2Debt/EBITDA -1.6 -0.3 -0.5Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 2.7 5.7 9.4EV/Sales 0.1 0.4 0.4EV/EBITDA 1.6 3.8 3.2EV/EBITDA (adj.) 1.6 3.8 3.2EV/EBIT 2.5 4.8 4.1P/E (adj.) 7.7 8.0 6.5P/BV 1.0 1.7 1.4OpFCF yield 88.3% -24.3% 11.1%Dividend yield 1.8% 3.8% 5.4%EPS (adj.) 1.02 1.76 2.16BVPS 8.19 8.41 10.03DPS 0.25 0.53 0.76

Q1 2011/12 results in line with expectations The facts: Schuler has reported Q1 2011/12 results this morning, which were in line with our expectations. Our analysis: Order intake in Q1 2011/12 decreased by 23% against an exceptionally strong Q1 2010/11 to EUR 391m. This was the best order intake number since 12 months. Revenues increased by 55% to EUR 276m. Book-to-Bill ratio amounted to 1.4x. Both, order intake and revenues were in line with the preliminary numbers reported in January 2012. EBITDA increased by 63% to 24.6m, while EBIT more than doubled to EUR 19.3m. Both numbers were broadly in line with expectations. EBT benefitted strongly from the financial leverage as well as an improved financial result and thus improved by EUR 12.5m to EUR 14.3m. As expected, the guidance for FY 2011/12 was left unchanged. Schuler continues to forecast revenues to top EUR 1.1bn, while the EBITDA margin should amount to roughly 9%. We continue to believe that the guidance is too conservative and will most likely apply only minor changes to our estimates, which are above the company’s guidance. Conclusion & Action: The result in Q1 2011/12 support our positive view on the company.

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SCHULER AG CDAX (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Schuler-Beteiligungen GmbH 39%; Süddt. Erste Verwaltungs GmbH 13%; Kreissparkasse Biberach 6%;

Analyst(s):

Holger Schmidt, CEFA, Equinet Bank [email protected]

+49 69 58 99 74 32

Tim Schuldt, CFA Equinet Bank

[email protected]

+49 69 5899 7433

Quarterly developmentEUR m Q1 2012 Q1 2011 % YoY equinet Delta

Order intake 391.1 505.4 -23% 390.0 0%

Revenues 276.3 178.0 55% 276.0 0%Book-to-Bill ratio 1.4 2.8 0% 1.4 0%

EBITDA 24.6 15.1 63% 26.3 -6%EBIT Margin 8.9% 8.5% 42 BP 9.5% -63 BP

EBIT 19.3 9.3 108% 20.2 -4%EBIT Margin 7.0% 5.2% 176 BP 7.3% -33 BP

EBT 14.3 1.8 694% 13.9 3%

Source: Schuler, equinet Research



Sonae Capital Portugal/Hotels, Travel & Tourism Analyser

Sonae Capital (Reduce)

Reduce




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg SONAC.LS/SONC PL


Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 189 158 157EBITDA (m) 7 2 5EBITDA margin 3.5% 1.0% 3.3%EBIT (m) (14) (4) (1)EBIT margin nm nm nmNet Profit (adj.)(m) (6) 13 (6)ROCE -1.8% -0.5% -0.1%Net debt/(cash) (m) 281 270 260Net Debt/Equity 0.8 0.8 0.8Debt/EBITDA 43.0 178.9 49.4Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 0.8 0.1 0.4EV/Sales 1.7 1.8 1.6EV/EBITDA 48.1 nm 49.1EV/EBITDA (adj.) 48.1 nm 49.1EV/EBIT nm nm nmP/E (adj.) nm 5.3 nmP/BV 0.3 0.2 0.2OpFCF yield -0.9% 38.5% 30.4%Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%EPS (adj.) (0.02) 0.05 (0.02)BVPS 1.31 1.37 1.34DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

2011 results preview. The facts: Sonae Capital will publish its 2011 results on February 29, after market close. Our analysis: According to our estimates, Sonae Capital recorded a c. 17.8% Turnover decrease during last year (or a 3.3% decrease if we adjust the 2010 figures in order to account for the Box Lines sale). We expect the company to have generated EUR 1.5m EBITDA, which translates into a low 1.03% EBITDA margin for the year. During the year, the Troiaresort and Hotel Operations units’ negative operating margins contributed significantly to this lacklustre performance, while the remaining units activities managed to somehow compensate it. Net Profit for the year should have amounted to c. EUR 15m, mostly due to the EUR 27.2m pre-tax gain related to the TP and the Tróia B3 sales.

Conclusion & Action. We believe Sonae Capital’s full year results will hardly bring any surprise to the market. The company is doing its homework by selling the non-core assets it possesses, thus assuring the sustainability of its debt. Even though the bottom line figure for the year may seem appealing (due to one-off events), we believe that our attention should be more focused on the company’s operational performance during the last quarter of 2011.

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SONAE CAPITAL PSI20 (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Efanor 63%; UBS 8%; Mahnish Pabrai 7%; BPI 2%; Caixagest 2%;

Analyst(s):

José Mota Freitas, Caixa Banco de Investimento [email protected]

+351 22 607 09 31

EURm 2010 2011e YoY(%)

Total Sales 178.582 146.839 -17.8%

o.w . Tourism + SC Assets 60.346 53.916 -10.7%

o.w . Spred 118.118 87.801 -25.7%

EBITDA 2.813 1.512 -46.3%

o.w . Tourism + SC Assets -4.059 -5.194 28.0%

o.w . Spred 8.147 8.186 0.5%

EBITDA margin 1.58% 1.03%

o.w . Tourism + SC Assets -6.73% -9.63%

o.w . Spred 6.90% 9.32%

Financial Results (incl. Associates) -2.929 -7.319 n.m.

Net profit w ithout Minorities (1) -4.420 14.917 n.m.

EPS (EUR) (0.018) 0.060 Source: Company data and Caix aBI Equity Research(1) 2011e Net Profit includes the pretax EUR 27.2m gain from the sale of Tróia B3

and TP



Ten Cate Netherlands/Industrial Engineering Analyser

Ten Cate (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg NTCN.AS/KTC NA


Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 985 1,120 1,203EBITDA (m) 120 136 150EBITDA margin 12.1% 12.2% 12.5%EBIT (m) 75 88 98EBIT margin 7.6% 7.9% 8.1%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 56 68 76ROCE 8.2% 9.4% 10.8%Net debt/(cash) (m) 241 213 130Net Debt/Equity 0.6 0.4 0.2Debt/EBITDA 2.0 1.6 0.9Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 12.0 15.1 20.0EV/Sales 1.0 0.7 0.7EV/EBITDA 8.3 5.9 5.5EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.3 5.9 5.5EV/EBIT 13.3 9.1 8.4P/E (adj.) 12.6 8.1 8.5P/BV 1.7 1.2 1.2OpFCF yield 1.0% 8.8% 14.5%Dividend yield 3.0% 3.5% 3.7%EPS (adj.) 2.23 2.63 2.89BVPS 16.94 18.35 20.04DPS 0.75 0.85 0.90

11H2: All is well The facts: 2012 outlook mentions rising results, although the phasing through the year (after the exceptional US Army orders of 11H1) will affect comparisons. 2011 results were in line with estimates.

TenCate (EUR m) 10Q3 10Q4 11Q3 11Q4E 10H2 11H2E

Revenues

272

258

289

257

530

546 EBITA (excl exceptionals)

26

21

28

19

47

46

EBITA margin 9.6% 8.1% 9.7% 7.2% 8.9% 8.5%

Divisions 10H1 10H2 11H1 11H2E 10FY 11FYE Advanced Textiles & Composites

193 255 290 248 448 538

EBITA 16 28 41 29 44 70 EBITA margin 8.3% 11.0% 14.1% 11.7% 9.8% 13.0% Geosynthetics & Grass 227 242 268 258 469 526 EBITA 19 12 14 12 31 26 EBITA margin 8.4% 5.0% 5.2% 4.7% 6.6% 4.9% Other 35 32 35 40 67 75 EBITA 3 7 1 5 10 6

Our analysis: Advanced textiles did not collapse as some had feared, aircraft composites have started to produce meaningful results, armour systems are coming. Geosynthetics are in rising demand as advanced infrastructural spending in emerging economies is coming of age. Only in artificial turf the engine is faltering. Contracting market volumes and tough pricing have precluded the group to recover from the (voluntary) loss of Field Turf as a client. For 2012, TenCate expects that its downstream integration will help to counter the pressures. Capex at 60% of depreciation was muted as expected. Conclusion & Action: investment case stands, based on the portfolio of product life cycles. Tough first half comps should be in the price, especially now that 11H2 has shown the resilience of the full set of businesses. Buy, target EUR 40.-

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TEN CATE Amsterdam Small Cap Index (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Delta Lloyd 15%; Ameriprise 8%; Schroders 8%; Kempen 6%;

Analyst(s):

Gert Steens, SNS Securities [email protected]

+312 0 5508639



Ter Beke Belgium/Food & Beverage Analyser

Ter Beke (Accumulate)

Accumulate




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg TERB.BR/TERB BB

Market capitalisation (EURm) 90Current N° of shares (m) 2Free float 25% Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 537Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 0Price high 12 mth (EUR) 60.88Price low 12 mth (EUR) 48.02Abs. perf. 1 mth 3.60%Abs. perf. 3 mth 6.83%Abs. perf. 12 mth -14.52%


FY11 results in line The facts: This morning Ter Beke reported FY11 sales of EUR 403.7m (+0.4%), in line with our expectations and a 12% decrease of the net result to EUR 9.2m, also as expected. Our analysis: Ter Beke’s total turnover growth of 0.4% was supported by a a “strong” volume increase in ready meals sales (sales +3.9%), while in processed meats turnover decreased by 1.1% at stable volumes. Lower sales in the processed meats division was mainly due to consumer downtrading. Already in the 3Q11 interim statement, Ter Beke mentioned a changing product-mix, whereby sales volumes of cheaper products go up to the detriment of sales of more expensive products. EBITDA was down 11.4% to EUR 33.2m (EUR 34.6m expected), and EBIT came out at EUR 15.3m (-13.9%, in line with our estimates). This decrease of the operating result was mainly due to raw material prices, which have continued their uptrend since 2H10 and which can only be charged through with a certain delay. The EUR 0.8m improvement of the financial result is attributed to a EUR 0.5m positive impact of the GBP/EUR evolution, pursuant to Ter Beke’s hedging policy, and lower interest rates and bank costs. After taxes (EUR 3.4m), the FY11 net result came out at EUR 9.2m, slightly ahead of our estimate of EUR 9.0m. The BoD will propose a gross dividend of EUR 2.50/share (stable and as expected), which results in a handsome gross yield of 4.8%.

(EUR m) 1H10 2H10 FY10 1H11 2H11 FY11a % YoY FY11e Δ% exp

Net sales 197.4 204.8 402.2 198.5 205.2 403.7 0.4% 404.9 -0.3% Processed meats 136.3 141.1 277.4 133.3 140.8 274.1 -1.2% 273.9 0.1%

Fresh ready meals 61.1 63.8 124.9 65.2 64.4 129.7 3.8% 130.9 -1.0%

EBITDA 19.6 17.9 37.5 16.4 16.9 33.2 -11.4% 34.6 -4.0% EBITDA margin 9.9% 8.8% 9.3% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 8.6%

Non-cash costs 8.9 10.8 19.7 8.9 9.0 17.9 -9.1% 19.4 -7.6%

EBIT 10.7 7.1 17.8 7.4 7.9 15.3 -13.9% 15.3 0.5% EBIT margin 5.4% 3.5% 4.4% 3.7% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%

Financial result -2.1 -1.4 -3.5 -1.4 -1.3 -2.7 -22.7% -3.1 -11.4%

EBT 8.5 5.8 14.3 6.0 6.6 12.6 -11.7% 12.2 3.5%

Taxes -2.8 -1.0 -3.8 -1.5 -1.9 -3.4 -10.9% -3.2 7.7%

Net result 5.7 4.7 10.5 4.5 4.7 9.2 -12.0% 9.0 2.0% Net margin 2.9% 2.3% 2.6% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2%

Adj. EPS (EUR) 3.31 2.73 6.04 2.60 2.60 5.20 -13.8% 5.21 -0.1% Source: Company data, ESN – Bank Degroof Research

Conclusion & Action: Operating and net result in line with expectations. Only slightly better financial result and somewhat higher taxes. Management expects an improvement of the profitability in both divisions, which should lead to a higher result in 2012, without more guidance. The stock is traded at attractive multiples (see table). We reiterate our Accumulate rating and EUR 61 TP.

An analyst meeting is scheduled at Wednesday 7-Mar-12 at 3:00pm CET.

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TER BEKE Belgium All Share (Rebased) Analyst(s):

Hans D'Haese, Bank Degroof [email protected]

+32 (0) 2 287 9223



Tubacex Spain/Basic Resources Analyser

Tubacex (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg TUBA.MC/TUB SM


Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 362 488 580EBITDA (m) 13 34 52EBITDA margin 3.5% 7.0% 9.0%EBIT (m) (6) 13 31EBIT margin nm 2.7% 5.3%Net Profit (adj.)(m) (6) 6 17ROCE -1.0% 2.2% 4.9%Net debt/(cash) (m) 224 219 220Net Debt/Equity 0.9 0.9 0.8Debt/EBITDA 17.5 6.4 4.2Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 1.9 3.6 4.8EV/Sales 1.6 1.0 0.9EV/EBITDA 44.6 14.1 9.8EV/EBITDA (adj.) 44.6 14.1 9.8EV/EBIT nm 36.2 16.8P/E (adj.) nm 45.1 16.0P/BV 1.4 1.0 1.1OpFCF yield -9.5% 10.2% 7.0%Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%EPS (adj.) (0.04) 0.04 0.13BVPS 1.78 1.82 1.95DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

4Q’11 results The facts: Tubacex presented the following 4Q’11 results:

TUBACEX: 4Q11 RESULTS2010 %sles 2011 %sles %11/10 2011e % dev 3Q11 4Q11

Sales 361.8 100% 486.6 100% 34.5% 487.8 0% 112.0 122.0EBITDA 12.8 3.5% 27.2 5.6% 113% 34.2 -20% 5.9 3.5Depreciation & provs. -18.6 -5% -20.7 -4% 11% -20.9 -4.2 -5.5EBIT -5.9 -1.6% 6.5 1.3% n.a. 13.3 -51% 1.7 -2.0Financial Results -6.4 -2% -6.9 -1% -7.8 -11% -1.4 -0.7EBT -12.2 -3.4% -0.4 -0.1% n.a. 5.5 0.3 -2.7Taxes 6.3 2% 3.6 1% 0.0 0.4 3.2Net Profit reported -6.0 -1.6% 3.7 0.8% n.a. 5.5 -34% 0.8 1.0Source: Bankia bolsa

Our analysis: 2011 results: sales improved 34% vs. 2010; EBITDA increased from EUR12.8m to EUR27.2m and net profit EUR3.7m, although EBT remains at breakeven. These results came in below our estimates and consensus’ EBITDA (Factset, EUR34.9m), mainly due to the greater impact from provisions on nickel depreciation. Tubacex continues doubling the capacity in manufacturing OCTG tubes, investing EUR18m. The main impact will be observed in the P&L 2013 account. We highlight net debt increasing from EUR224m to EUR237m, based on the increasing working capital, due to a recovery in activity. Net debt continues at a high level, representing 98% equity and we estimate 4.2x EBITDA at 2012. Conclusion: Tubacex expects to substantially improve results this year, especially as from 2Q’12 with the rise in volumes and greater weight of added value products. Tubacex has also increased base prices that will also be observed as from 2Q’12. Estimates and recommendation maintained.

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TUBACEX IGBM (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Bagoeta S.L. 18%; Saving Banks 8%; Caja Navarra 5%;

Analyst(s):


+34 91 436 7814



Xeikon Netherlands/Electronic & Electrical Equipment Analyser

Punch Graphix NV (Buy)

Buy




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg P9I.AS/PGX NA


Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 143 140 145EBITDA (m) 31 32 33EBITDA margin 21.9% 22.8% 22.9%EBIT (m) 15 21 21EBIT margin 10.4% 15.0% 14.6%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 5 11 10ROCE 7.1% 10.3% -4.3%Net debt/(cash) (m) 35 34 22Net Debt/Equity 0.2 0.2 0.1Debt/EBITDA 1.1 1.1 0.7Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 4.0 6.4 6.6EV/Sales 0.6 0.6 0.5EV/EBITDA 2.6 2.5 2.2EV/EBITDA (adj.) 2.7 2.5 2.2EV/EBIT 5.6 3.9 3.5P/E (adj.) 18.6 7.5 8.6P/BV 0.5 0.5 0.5OpFCF yield -7.3% 17.6% 11.7%Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%EPS (adj.) 0.16 0.40 0.37BVPS 6.23 6.21 6.95DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

Weaker FY11 performance than expected The facts: Xeikon reported a net profit of EUR 7m vs. SNSe of EUR 11m in FY11. Our analysis: Xeikon’s sales fell by 7% yoy to EUR 130m vs. SNSe EUR 140m. The decline in number of sales was mainly attributable to the Prepress Solutions which dropped more than 20% yoy in 2011. The strong drop in Prepress Solutions occurred mainly due to increased competition from Chinese suppliers and tough market conditions. We expect that the competition in Prepress Solutions will continue and Xeikon’s position could be further challenged. Digital Printing Solutions sales declined by 1% to EUR 95,6m at the end of 2011. Equipment sales dropped by 3% yoy to EUR 56m and this was mainly driven by deteriorated macro economic outlook. We expect that equipment sales will slightly pick up on the back of financial market improvement in 2012. Income from consumables declined by c. 6% to EUR 73m and was attributable to currency effects and lower printing activity. Given that Xeikon’s EBITDA was stable on a yoy comparison at EUR 30.5m in FY11 (SNSe: EUR 32m) we believe that the company has mainly sold high margin products in 2011. Sales in Americas increased by 7.4% yoy to c. EUR 41m and given that the macro economic outlook of Americas is better than that of Europe we expect that this will develop in favor of the company. Sales in Europe declined by 12.8% and were mainly driven by uncertain financial market outlook. Sales in Asia declined by 7.7% and were mainly caused by increased competition of the Chinese suppliers. Xeikon incurred a negative result of EUR 7.7m on its Accentis stake compared to EUR 7.9m in 2010. We believe that the impairment level in 2012 will be similar. Xeikon does not propose dividend for 2011 and the company did not comment on 2012 outlook. Conclusion & Action: Xeikon’s FY11 result was weaker than expected. The company was mainly affected by the tough financial market environment and increased competition in basic printing segment. We expect that the company will face new challenges in 2012 if the uncertain market environment persists.

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PUNCH GRAPHIX NV EuroNext (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Punch International 68%; Treasury shares 8%;

Analyst(s):

Lemer Salah, SNS Securities [email protected]

+312 0 5508516

Johan van den Hooven SNS Securities

[email protected]

+312 0 5508518



ESN Recommendation system The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the basis of a total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital reimbursement) over a 12 month time horizon.

The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy, Accumulate (or Add), Hold, Reduce and Sell (in short: B, A, H, R, S).

Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate the stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.

Meaning of each recommendation or rating:

• Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 20% during the next 12 months time horizon

• Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 10% to 20% during the next 12 months time horizon

• Hold: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to 10% during the next 12 months time horizon.

• Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to -10% during the next 12 months time horizon

• Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -10% during the next 12 months time horizon

• Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a capital operation (take-over bid, SPO, …) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer is or could be involved or to a change of analyst covering the stock

• Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer

ESN Ratings Breakdown

History of ESN Recommendation System Since 18 October 2004, the Members of ESN are using an Absolute Recommendation System (before was a Relative Rec. System) to rate any single stock under coverage. Since 4 August 2008, the ESN Rec. System has been amended as follow. • Time horizon changed to 12 months (it was 6 months) • Recommendations Total Return Range changed as below:

BEFORE

-15% 0% 5% 15%SELL REDUCE HOLD ACCUMULATE BUY

TODAY


BEFORE


BEFORE


TODAY


TODAY


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Caixa-Banco de Investimento Rua Barata Salgueiro, 33-5 1269-050 Lisboa Portugal Phone: +351 21 389 68 00 Fax: +351 21 389 68 98

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