Eradicating Extreme Poverty: Global Lessons on Graduation and Building Resilience Syed M Hashemi...

download Eradicating Extreme Poverty: Global Lessons on Graduation and Building Resilience Syed M Hashemi BRAC University Presentation prepared for the conference

of 30

  • date post

    17-Dec-2015
  • Category

    Documents

  • view

    213
  • download

    0

Embed Size (px)

Transcript of Eradicating Extreme Poverty: Global Lessons on Graduation and Building Resilience Syed M Hashemi...

  • Slide 1
  • Eradicating Extreme Poverty: Global Lessons on Graduation and Building Resilience Syed M Hashemi BRAC University Presentation prepared for the conference on Towards Sustained Eradication of Extreme Poverty in Bangladesh NEC Conference Room, Planning Commission 8-9 April 2015 1
  • Slide 2
  • What is social protection?... a set of transfers and services that help individuals and households confront risk and adversity (including emergencies) and ensure a minimum standard of dignity and wellbeing throughout the lifecycle. Source: Michael Samson 2
  • Slide 3
  • Emergence of Social Protection 1980s: Safety nets introduced in response to structural adjustment programs 1990: WDR: Safety nets, one of three components of global poverty reduction strategy 1997: Financial crisis in Asia, Latin America, Eastern Europe 2001: World Bank: Social risk management framework Rights based social protection (From risk management to promoting social justice) IDS: transformative social protection ILO: social protection floor UNICEF: child support and Intergenerational support 3
  • Slide 4
  • The Lifecycle Approach: Risks and Vulnerabilities Faced by People Across their Lives Source: Dr. Stephen Kidd, September 2013 4
  • Slide 5
  • Components of Social Protection System 5 Labour policy and insurance e.g. contributory pensions, unemployment benefits, health insurance, minimum wage Social safety nets Transfer (non contributory) and subsidies Social sector policy Services and infrastructure for education, health, nutrition, HIV/AIDS, agriculture, etc. e.g. Weather insurance Social Protection e.g. Health clinics, classrooms e.g. Cash transfers Conditional cash transfers Food transfers Conditional food transfers (e.g. school feeding) Public/community works Vouchers Price subsidies Source: Gentilini, Ugo&Omamo, Steven Were, 2009
  • Slide 6
  • 6 Conditional cash transfers Unconditional cash transfers Conditional in-kind transfers Unconditional in-kind transfers Public works programs Typology of Safety Net Programs
  • Slide 7
  • Global Coverage of Safety Nets Over 1 billion people have safety net coverage However, only 345 million extreme poor are covered Only 1 out of 5 extreme poor are covered in low income countries But there has been an exponential growth in social safety nets, especially cash-based programs Every country has at least one social safety net program in place. Aggregate spending of social safety nets rises as countries get richer, but still averages just 1.6 per-cent of GDP A quarter of spending on social safety nets is for the poorest 20 percent of households, but generally it is insufficient to lift them out of poverty Countries are moving from ad-hoc social safety net interventions to more integrated and efficient social protection systems 7
  • Slide 8
  • Major Social Safety Net Programs (millions of people covered) 8
  • Slide 9
  • Safety Nets Impacts Safety nets achieve visible results in reducing poverty Reductions in headcount poverty on average by 8 percent and the poverty gap by 17 percent Safety nets reduce global extreme poverty by 3 percent and help move 50 million people above the poverty line The poverty-reducing effects are greater where coverage is higher and more generous transfers are provided Progressive impacts can lead to reduction in inequality For example, Romania reduced its inequality by 14 % 9
  • Slide 10
  • Safety Nets Impacts World Banks Independent Evaluation Group in 2011 concluded that evidence on social safety nets is richer than most other areas of social policy and that each intervention has positive impacts on the original objectives set out in the programs. New evaluations continue to show positive short-term results on household consumption, school attendance, childrens health and labor supply, and provide new evidence on local economy effects and long-term sustainability. 10
  • Slide 11
  • Creating Pathways for the Poorest safety nets alone are insufficient for the poorest promotion transformation protection prevention 11
  • Slide 12
  • Microfinance Does Not Reach the Poorest Destitute Extreme Poor Moderate Poor Vulnerable Non-Poor Wealthy 12
  • Slide 13
  • The Graduation Model: Carefully Sequenced Interventions 13
  • Slide 14
  • Research Sites Haiti Ethiopia Yemen India Pakistan Peru Honduras Pilot Sites CGAP Ford Foundation Graduation Pilots Ghana
  • Slide 15
  • Program Evaluation Evaluation MethodDescriptionOrganizationsPilot Country QuantitativeRandomized Control Trials IPA, J-PAL, NYUIndia, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Honduras, Peru,, Ghana QualitativeLife histories to classify participants based on their progress (fast and slow climbers) BDI and IPAIndia, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Yemen, Honduras, Peru, Ghana Mixed MethodCombination of quantitative and qualitative methods BDI and IDSHaiti 15
  • Slide 16
  • Selected RCT Results In 4 of 6 sites India, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Peru strong positive impacts recorded after three years; significant increases in Total per capita household consumption Monthly food consumption Food security Total annual household income Asset ownership But context, location, and choices in program implementation affects results Source: FordFoundation 16
  • Slide 17
  • Impact: Bandhan, India Data from Endline 2 Survey (2011) Higher proportion of females with financial assets in treatment group Adults and children less likely to skip meals in the treatment group Increased awareness of hygiene may have led to a healthier population, regardless of program participation
  • Slide 18
  • RESULTS AND IMPACT In Bangladesh, more than 95% of participants achieve graduation with 92% crossing an ultra- poverty threshold of 50 cents per day and maintaining their improved conditions for the next 4 years Internationally, reports from the CGAP - Ford pilots show that in 18-36 months, 75% to 98% of participants meet the country specific graduation criteria
  • Slide 19
  • RESULTS AND IMPACT : BRAC RCT 4 years after the start of the programme (2 years after its end) the portion of participants entirely self employed increases from 30% to 47% - no notable change among control Percentage of participants relying solely on wage labor declined from 26% to 6% over the same period - little change among control. Reduction in seasonality More even allocation of hours across days BRAC: Briefing Note, based on Robin Burgess (LSE and IGC )
  • Slide 20
  • RESULTS AND IMPACT : BRAC RCT Among participants, a 33% increase in earnings within 2 years (period of intervention) Among participants, 38% increase in earnings within 4 years Higher gains than control Savings Increases: 818% after 2 years 875% after 4 years Consumption Increases: 8% increase after 2 years 15% increase after 4 years Investment in land: 38% increase after 4 years Changes in occupational choices were accompanied by increase in income, expenditure and food security achieved BRAC: Briefing Note, based on Robin Burgess (LSE and IGC )
  • Slide 21
  • Typology of Extreme Poor Participants Constraints No vertical social networks Low earner dependent ratio No cooperative male Lack of previous experience Health shocks Resources Existence of vertical relationships High earner-dependent ratio Cooperative male in household Previous experience Demonstrating agency LESS DYNAMIC | MORE DYNAMIC 21
  • Slide 22
  • Poverty Traps HAITI Political instability Natural disasters Lack of infrastructure Male irresponsibility INDIA Caste-based poverty and landlessness High salinity and marshlands Politicized access to state entitlements Male irresponsibility PAKISTAN Purdah: limited mobility of women Reliance on middlemen Lack of networks with the elite Poor health and education services ETHIOPIA Environmental degradation Absence of vertical networks Isolation and poor transportation Dependence on state safety nets CONTEXT MATTERS 22
  • Slide 23
  • Process of Change Matrix Possessed success factors More resources than constraints Program strengthened their positive trajectory Possessed success factors More resources than constraints Program strengthened their positive trajectory Negative circumstances - trajectory naturally devolved Program failed to provide enough of a safety net Negative circumstances - trajectory naturally devolved Program failed to provide enough of a safety net Program succeeded in transforming trajectory Acquired success factors through program and transformed their trajectory Program succeeded in transforming trajectory Acquired success factors through program and transformed their trajectory Lacked success factors Constraints unaddressed Program failed to bring about change Lacked success factors Constraints unaddressed Program failed to bring about change FAST CLIMBERSSLOW CLIMBERS Less Dynamic More Dynamic In program Pre-program Less Dynamic More Dynamic 23
  • Slide 24
  • Key Elements: forming strategic partnerships 24
  • Slide 25
  • Growing Interest in the Graduation Approach Graduation approach is being adapted and tried by NGOs and governments in a number of countries Afghanistan Peru Ethiopia Colombia Brazil South Africa Indonesia Ghana Kenya Many donor agencies interested in promotion: World Bank IFAD AusAid UNHCR 25
  • Slide 26