Epsilon Capital Management Economy Reviews: Palm oil to test resistance, drop

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  • 7/29/2019 Epsilon Capital Management Economy Reviews: Palm oil to test resistance, drop

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    Epsilon Capital

    Management EconomyReviews

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    Palm oil to test

    resistance, drop

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    March 23, 2013: Malaysian palm oil futures onBursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange endedhigher on Friday, the highest in a month onFriday on hopes of export demand paringrecord stocks. Despite weak market sentimenton the back of concerns about a possible debtdefault by Cyprus that could hit the eurozones fragile recovery and crimp edible oildemand, prices rallied higher. Data this weeklifted expectations of market participants thatexports of palm oil will climb and help ease the2.44-million-tonne stock build up in Malaysia,the world's No.2 producer of the edible oil.

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    argo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS(Malaysia) Bhd said that March 1-20shipments showed a monthly gain of 11 percent and 14 per cent, respectively. ChinasFebruary palm oil imports rose 10.5 per centon year to 423,831 tonnes, the GeneralAdministration of Customs said Thursday.Imports in the first two months rose 8.5 percent on year to 896,564 tonnes, it said.

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    CPO active June month futures pulled backhigher as expected. As mentioned earlier,strong resistance will be seen at 2,500-2,520Malaysian ringgit (MYR) a tonne levels andthough it looks unlikely to cross it in the near-term, indicators are slowly turning friendly. Aclose above 2,525 could take prices towardstrend line resistance at 2,580-85 , a strongresistance point. Only an unexpected declinebelow 2,355 could see prices testing theimportant levels near 2,285 , or even lowerto 2,210 which we do not favour presently.

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    In the coming week, chances exist for therally to extend towards 2,525 levels or evenhigher to 2,585 while supports in the 2,465followed by 2,435 holds.The extended correction to 2,200 levelsmaterialised in the form of an extended waveC. It looks like a possible wave C couldhave ended at 2,220 now. For the presentimpulse move once above 2,650 , potentialexists for the impulse rally to extend to2,755-2,800 range too.

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    Only an unexpected decline below 2,350 couldforce us to abandon our bullish view. RSI is inthe neutral zone indicating that it is neitheroverbought nor oversold. The averages inMACD are still below the zero line of theindicator hinting at weakness.Only a crossover above the zero line againcould indicate a bullish reversal.Therefore, lookfor palm oil futures to test the resistancelevels.Supports are at MYR 2,460, 2,430 and2,365. Resistances are at MYR 2,525,2,585 and 2,620.