ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 RT5: Evaluation Objective:comprehensive...
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Transcript of ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 RT5: Evaluation Objective:comprehensive...
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
RT5: Evaluation
Objective: comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
Evaluation approaches
improvedobservationaldatasets for
Europe
global scale
keyprocesses / phenomena
ands2d forecast
skill
regionalscale
statistics ofextremes
impacts
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
Evaluation approaches
improvedobservationaldatasets for
Europe
(myexpertise)
global scale
keyprocesses / phenomena
ands2d forecast
skill
(links to RT4,RT1 andRT2A)
regionalscale
statistics ofextremes
(links to RT4,RT3 andRT2B)
impacts
(links to RT6;refer to
Andy Morse)
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
Evaluation approaches
improvedobservationaldatasets for
Europe
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km) based on ECA&D daily historical station series
eca.knmi.nl
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km) based on ECA&D daily historical station series
eca.knmi.nl/ensembles
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observationaldatasets (25 and 50 km)
Haylock et al., accepted by JGRscaling issues: interpolation reduces extremes
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km)
http://eca.knmi.nl/ensembles (or from RT5 website)
400 registered users,3000 unique website visitors every month
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km)
http://eca.knmi.nl/ensembles (or from RT5 website)
400 registered users,3000 unique website visitors every month
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
Remaining
• Need a unique name for the gridded dataset
• Guidance on the use of uncertainty information(standard error fields are provided, but not used!)
• Updates (2007, new version with improved station density, Lambert RCM grid flavour)
• Datasets for other variables (slp, snow cover, radiation/sunshine)
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
Evaluation approaches
global scale
keyprocesses /phenomena
ands2d forecast
skill
(links to RT4,RT1 andRT2A)
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
GCM metrics
(Prince Xavier, IPSL)
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
GCM metrics
vertical circulation regimes in tropical eastern Pacific -> double ITCZ syndrome (Bellucci et al., INGV)
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
S2D forecast skill
(Antje Weisheimer, ECMWF)
(Andreas Weigel, MeteoSwiss)
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
Remaining
• Integration of evaluation results from RT5, feedback to GCM modelers (Stream 2 idea)
• RT5 contribution to combined weighting GCM/RCM
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
Evaluation approaches
regionalscale
statistics ofextremes
(links to RT4,RT3 andRT2B)
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
Representation of extremes in RCMs using indices
Kostopoulouet al. (NOA)
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
Representation of trends in extremes using indices
Lister et al. (UEA)
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
Remaining
• RT5 contribution to RCM weighting metrics
• Treatment of extremes in ENSEMBLES across different variables, time scales and spatial scales (next extremes workshop, Riederalp, January 09)
• Impacts perspective on extremes
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
Impacts perspective
Key question in adaptation strategies (design criteria):
“How to assess probabilities of extremes in a non-stationary climate?”
(May 08 - RT5 workshop in De Bilt organized together with WMO/CLIVAR-ETCCDI)
ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008
Applying the non-stationary extreme-value model to precipitation in the Rhine basin (Martin Hanel, KNMI)