ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank &...

ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

RT5: EvaluationAlbert Klein Tank & Antonio Navarra / Elisa Manzini


RT5: EvaluationAlbert Klein Tank & Antonio Navarra / Elisa Manzini

Objective: to perform a comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble simulation/prediction system against observations/analyses


Achievements

• All RT5 deliverables and milestones are met


• Evaluation of global models used in multidecadal simulations (RT2a stream 1)– D5.5: systematic biases in the mean climate

and seasonal cycle (INGV, UREADMM, IPSL)

– D5.14: impact of model resolution on simulationof ENSO (INGV)

– D5.16: representation of cloud regimes in thetropics (IPSL)

– D5.17: representation of monsoon and itsteleconnection (IPSL)

Achievementsglobal and

multidecadal


• Evaluation of forecast quality with global models in s2d simulations (RT2a stream 1)– D5.3: probabilistic forecasts of rare extreme

events, incl. R-software (ECMWF, UREADMM)– D5.4: verification methods for forecasts of

extremeevents (UREADMM), plus websystem (KNMI)

– D5.7: skill in the seasonal prediction of NAO andPNA (ECMWF)

– D5.6: decadal forecast quality in the Indo-Pacificsector, discussion document (INGV, IPSL)


multidecadalglobal

and s2d


• Evaluation of regional models used in multidecadal simulations, with focus on extremes (RT2b and RT3)– D5.8: daily station dataset for gridding

(KNMI, MeteoSwiss)– D5.9: analysis of possible gridding methods

(UOXFDC, CRU)– D5.2: decadal scale variations of precipitation

extremes in ERA40 and Alpine observations

(ETH)


multidecadalglobal

and s2dregional andmultidecadal


• Evaluation of impact models (RT6)– D5.10: workshop “Lessons learned from

seasonalforecasting: health protection”(UNILIV, IRI)


multidecadalglobal


impactmodels


• Linkages between the 4 clusters (and gaps) were discussed at Monday’s RT5 meeting

• Coherent evaluation strategy will be outlined in the next PAR and soon available from the updated RT5-website

• Next few example diagrams:


multidecadalglobal


impactmodels


global andmultidecadal D5.5: INGV, UREADMM, IPSL

JFM mean precip, 1958-2000


global andmultidecadal D5.5: INGV, UREADMM, IPSL

JFM sd of precip, 1958-2000


globaland s2d

D5.7: ECMWF1-month lead NAO (DJF) hindcasts


regional andmultidecadal

D5.2: ETH

Bias correction of ERA40 precip in 3 Alpine regions, 1979-93


impactmodels

UNILIV

Rules based Malaria model run with ERA40 (1958-2001)


Plans, 1 of 2

• 8 deliverables and 4 milestones for RT5in next 18 months

• Will see the start of more regional work when gridded observational dataset for Europe and RCM simulations become available

• Stress that good access to all data is essential !


Plans, 2 of 2

• Extremes discussion: mismatch betweenhigh-impact extremes and statistically defined extremes

• Participate in upcoming meetings:– joint RT4/5/8 extremes workshop

Riederalp, 29 Jan- 2 Feb, 2007– 3rd WGNE workshop on systematic errors in climate and

NWP models, San Francisco, Feb 12-16, 2007– joint RT4/5/CFMIP meeting, Paris, Apr 11-13, 2007– EGU, Vienna, 15-20 Apr– …more on ENSEMBLES website…

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank &...

Documents

Transcript of ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank &...