England’s Changing Social Geology

Dr Daniel VickersRCUK Academic Fellow in Social and Spatial Inequalities

Department of GeographyUniversity of Sheffield

www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk

www.areaclassification.org.uk

Introducing Social Geology

Introducing Social Geology

What’s the big idea?

• Use area classification techniques to compare the country over time.

• 1991 to 2001.

• Smallest census units 91 EDs and 01 OAs.

• Based on 2001 Geography - 1991 data to be assigned to 2001 OAs.

• This will hopefully provide a picture of how the country is changing.

Digging at the country’s social mosaic

1. Clustering elements (Objects to cluster, also known as “operational taxonomic units”)

2. Clustering variables (Attributes of objects to be used)

3. Variable standardisation4. Measure of association (Proximity measure)5. Clustering method6. Number of clusters7. Interpretation, testing and replication

Milligan (1996)

Digging at the country’s social mosaic

• V01: Age 0-4• V02: Age 5-14• V03: Age 25-44• V04: Age 45-64• V05: Age 65+• V06: Indian, Pakistani &

Bangladeshi• V07: Black African, Black

Caribbean & Black Other• V08: Born Outside the UK• V09: Unemployed• V10: Working part-time• V13: Economically inactive

looking after family

V14: No central heatingV16: Rent (private)V17: Rent (public)V18: 2+ Car HouseholdsV20: FlatsV21: DetachedV22: TerracedV23: Lone parent householdV24: Single pensioner householdV25: Single person (not pensioner) householdV26: Population Density

Clustering resultsVariable

Cluster

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Age 0-4 .17 .24 .18 .31 .19 .24 .26

Age 5-14 .13 .23 .23 .29 .22 .20 .29

Age 25-44 .47 .41 .30 .38 .34 .36 .33

Age 45-64 .31 .34 .50 .28 .43 .31 .33

Age 65+ .15 .13 .18 .10 .18 .21 .18

Indian, Pakistani & Bangladeshi .05 .03 .01 .44 .02 .06 .02

Black African, Black Caribbean & Black Other .07 .02 .00 .14 .01 .16 .02

Born Outside the UK .23 .08 .06 .39 .06 .21 .05

Unemployed .14 .12 .06 .20 .08 .24 .18

Working part-time .18 .30 .32 .22 .33 .21 .30

Economically inactive looking after family .15 .18 .19 .34 .16 .25 .29

No central heating .13 .15 .04 .19 .07 .08 .12

Rent (private) .30 .13 .06 .17 .06 .08 .04

Rent (public) .14 .11 .03 .18 .08 .67 .52

2+ Car Households .17 .25 .57 .18 .38 .08 .16

Flats .68 .10 .03 .17 .08 .77 .17

Detached .05 .06 .67 .05 .21 .02 .06

Terraced .17 .66 .06 .57 .15 .12 .36

Lone parent household .11 .18 .08 .21 .12 .23 .28

Single pensioner household .16 .13 .12 .10 .16 .25 .19

Single person (not pensioner) household .33 .19 .09 .16 .12 .28 .15

Population Density .17 .14 .04 .21 .08 .23 .10

What’s in a name?

• 1: Urban Melting Pot

• 2: Mixed Communities

• 3: Out in the Sticks

• 4: Asian Influence

• 5: Middle Class Achievers

• 6: Down and Out

• 7: Working Class Endeavour

Changing Patterns

1991 Frequency

1991 Percent

2001 Frequency

2001 Percent

Change Frequency

Change Percent

1: Urban Melting Pot 11,350 6.9 15,392 9.3 4,042 2.4

2: Mixed Communities 21,949 13.2 25,910 15.6 3,961 2.4

3: Out in the Sticks 32,915 19.9 35,704 21.6 2,789 1.7

4: Asian Influence 5,039 3.0 4,930 3.0 -109 0

5: Middle Class Achievers 50,578 30.5 46,791 28.2 -3,787 -2.3

6: Down and Out 8,257 5.0 10,878 6.6 2,621 1.6

7: Working Class Endeavour

35,577 21.5 26,060 15.7-9,517 -5.8

Total 165,665 100.0 165,665 100.0 0.0 0.0

Changing Patterns

1991

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total

2001 1: Urban Melting Pot 9,200 1,318 195 467 2,245 1,116 851 15,392

2: Mixed Communities 779 15,991 237 432 3,445 76 4,950 25,910

3: Out in the Sticks 23 206 26,561 6 8,444 8 456 35,704

4: Asian Influence 153 519 3 3,699 117 129 310 4,930

5: Middle Class Achievers 482 2,628 5,658 103 33,044 27 4,849 46,791

6: Down and Out 618 126 29 204 505 6,401 2,995 10,878

7: Working Class Endeavour 95 1,161 232 128 2,778 500 21,166 26,060

Total 11,350 21,949 32,915 5,039 50,578 8,257 35,577 165,665

Changing Patterns

From

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total

To 1: Urban Melting Pot0 539 172 314 1,763 498 756 4,042

2: Mixed Communities-539 0 31 -87 817 -50 3,789 3,961

3: Out in the Sticks-172 -31 0 3 2,786 -21 224 2,789

4: Asian Influence-314 87 3 0 14 -75 182 -109

5: Middle Class Achievers-1,763 -817 2,786 -14 0 -478 2,071 -3,787

6: Down and Out-498 50 21 75 478 0 2,495 2,621

7: Working Class Endeavour -756 -3,789 -224 -182 -2,071 -2,495 0 -9,517

Total-4,042 -3,961 -2,789 109 3,787 -2,621 9,517

1: Urban Melting Pot 2: Mixed Communities 3: Out in the Sticks 4: Asian Influence

5: Middle Class Achievers 6: Down and Out 7: Working Class Endeavour  

Sheffield 1991

1: Urban Melting Pot 2: Mixed Communities 3: Out in the Sticks 4: Asian Influence

5: Middle Class Achievers 6: Down and Out 7: Working Class Endeavour  

Sheffield 2001

1: Urban Melting Pot 2: Mixed Communities 3: Out in the Sticks 4: Asian Influence

5: Middle Class Achievers 6: Down and Out 7: Working Class Endeavour  

London 1991

1: Urban Melting Pot 2: Mixed Communities 3: Out in the Sticks 4: Asian Influence

5: Middle Class Achievers 6: Down and Out 7: Working Class Endeavour  

London 2001

1: Urban Melting Pot 2: Mixed Communities 3: Out in the Sticks 4: Asian Influence

5: Middle Class Achievers 6: Down and Out 7: Working Class Endeavour  

Tyneside 1991

1: Urban Melting Pot 2: Mixed Communities 3: Out in the Sticks 4: Asian Influence

5: Middle Class Achievers 6: Down and Out 7: Working Class Endeavour  

Tyneside 2001

From

Blue Collar City Living CountrysideProspering

Suburbs ConstrainedTypical

Traits Multicultural

Blue Collar 247,257 26,458 42,153 73,924 112,089 129,237 55,827

City Living 32,003 229,572 43,670 105,700 26,047 104,835 121,727

To Countryside 48,652 29,027 162,944 102,892 25,600 95,172 21,795

Prospering Suburbs 93,989 63,477 80,291 293,179 51,732 218,079 64,013

Constrained 112,728 27,327 24,847 50,829 120,940 90,387 44,079

Typical Traits 141,210 110,784 88,390 191,263 91,495 334,189 104,488

Multicultural 40,841 135,326 16,682 53,539 33,261 74,058 416,712

716,680 621,971 458,977 871,326 461,164 1,045,957 828,641

From

Blue Collar City Living CountrysideProspering

Suburbs ConstrainedTypical

Traits Multicultural

Blue Collar 34.5 4.3 9.2 8.5 24.3 12.4 6.7

City Living 4.5 36.9 9.5 12.1 5.6 10.0 14.7

To Countryside 6.8 4.7 35.5 11.8 5.6 9.1 2.6

Prospering Suburbs 13.1 10.2 17.5 33.6 11.2 20.8 7.7

Constrained 15.7 4.4 5.4 5.8 26.2 8.6 5.3

Typical Traits 19.7 17.8 19.3 22.0 19.8 32.0 12.6

Multicultural 5.7 21.8 3.6 6.1 7.2 7.1 50.3

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Movements cause change

What does all this mean

• Is the country changing?

• How much?

• What is happening?

• What is causing it?

• Is this good or bad?

• Where to from here?

Further reading and resources• Vickers, D. and Rees, P. (2007).

Creating the National Statistics 2001 Output Area Classification, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 170(2).

• Vickers, D. and Rees, P. (2006), Introducing the National Classification of Census Output Areas , Population Trends, 125.

• Vickers, D. (2006), Multi-level Integrated Classifications Based on the 2001 Census, PhD Thesis, University of Leeds.http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/old/d.vickers/thesis.html

• Vickers, D. Rees, P. and Birkin, M. (2005), Creating the National Classification of Output Areas, Working Paper, School of Geography, University of Leeds.

• Williams, S and Botterill, A. (2006), Profiling Areas Using the Output Area Classification, Regional Trends 39.

• www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk

• www.areaclassification.org.uk

• Forthcoming report and papers based on these findings.I would like to acknowledge the help and advice of John Stillwell, Phil Rees, Paul Norman, Danny Dorling, the ESRC and RCUK