energy future holindings txu_110906

22
EEI Conference C. John Wilder Chief Executive Officer November 7, 2006 1 Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from management's current projections, forecasts, estimates and expectations is contained in the company's SEC filings. Specifically, the company makes reference to the section entitled “Risk Factors” in its annual and quarterly reports, particularly the risk factor relating to its new build program in Texas. In addition to the risks and uncertainties set forth in the company's SEC filings, the forward-looking statements in this presentation could be affected by actions of rating agencies, the ability of the company to attract and retain profitable customers, changes in demand for electricity, the impact of weather, changes in wholesale electricity prices or energy commodity prices, the company’s ability to hedge against changes in commodity prices and market heat rates, the company’s ability to fund certain investments described herein, delays in approval of, or failure to obtain, air and other environmental permits and the ability of the company to resolve the consent decree issue regarding the new Sandow 5 unit, changes in competitive market rules, changes in environmental laws or regulations, changes in electric generation and emissions control technologies, changes in projected demand for electricity, the ability of the company and its contractors to attract and retain skilled labor, at projected rates, for planning and building new generating units, changes in the cost and availability of materials necessary for the planned new generation units, the ability of the company to negotiate and finalize engineering, procurement and construction contracts for its reference plants in a timely manner and at projected costs, the ability of the company to manage the significant construction program to a timely conclusion with limited cost overruns, the ability of the company to implement the initiatives that are part of its performance improvement program and growth strategy and the terms under which the company executes those initiatives, and the decisions made and actions taken as a result of the company’s financial and growth strategies, and with respect to the InfrastruX Energy joint venture, the amount of time the PUC takes to review the transaction and the results of such review.

description

 

Transcript of energy future holindings txu_110906

Page 1: energy future holindings txu_110906

EEI Conference

C. John WilderChief Executive Officer

November 7, 2006

1

Safe Harbor StatementThis presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from management's current projections, forecasts, estimates and expectations is contained in the company's SEC filings. Specifically, the company makes reference to the section entitled “Risk Factors” in its annual and quarterly reports, particularly the risk factor relating to its new build program in Texas. In addition to the risks and uncertainties set forth in the company's SEC filings, the forward-looking statements in this presentation could be affected by actions of rating agencies, the ability of the company to attract and retain profitable customers, changes in demand for electricity, the impact of weather, changes in wholesale electricity prices or energy commodity prices, the company’s ability to hedge against changes in commodity prices and market heat rates, the company’s ability to fund certain investments described herein, delays in approval of, or failure to obtain, air and other environmental permits and the ability of the company to resolve the consent decree issue regarding the new Sandow 5 unit, changes in competitive market rules, changes in environmental laws or regulations, changes in electric generation and emissions control technologies, changes in projected demand for electricity, the ability of the company and its contractors to attract and retain skilled labor, at projected rates, for planning and building new generating units, changes in the cost and availability of materials necessary for the planned new generation units, the ability of the company to negotiate and finalize engineering, procurement and construction contracts for its reference plants in a timely manner and at projected costs, the ability of the company to manage the significant construction program to a timely conclusion with limited cost overruns, the ability of the company to implement the initiatives that are part of its performance improvement program and growth strategy and the terms under which the company executes those initiatives, and the decisions made and actions taken as a result of the company’s financial and growth strategies, and with respect to the InfrastruX Energy joint venture, the amount of time the PUC takes to review the transaction and the results of such review.

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Today’s Agenda

Financial Outlook

Financial Outlook

Short-term Financial GrowthFinancial SensitivitiesLong-term Sources And Uses Of Cash

Business Unit Strategies

Business Unit Strategies

TXU Development/TXU ConstructionTXU Power TXU WholesaleTXU EnergyTXU Electric Delivery

Generation Growth PlanGeneration

Growth Plan

America’s Power ChallengeThe Texas SolutionA National Solution

3

TXU’s Long-Term Objectives…

1. Drive 3-5% annual improvement in reliability, efficiency, and service

2. Meet Texas’ growing demand for power with 9 GW of new baseload power generation

3. Maintain Texas residential market share by profitably gaining customers and providing innovative products and services

4. Leverage superior baseload operations, construction expertise, and structuring skills to build a 10 GW business in other competitive US markets

5. Continue to enhance business through building strong management and ensuring the financial risk profile is commensurate with the business risk profile

1. Drive 3-5% annual improvement in reliability, efficiency, and service

2. Meet Texas’ growing demand for power with 9 GW of new baseload power generation

3. Maintain Texas residential market share by profitably gaining customers and providing innovative products and services

4. Leverage superior baseload operations, construction expertise, and structuring skills to build a 10 GW business in other competitive US markets

5. Continue to enhance business through building strong management and ensuring the financial risk profile is commensurate with the business risk profile

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…Will Be Executed By Businesses That Compete Across The Entire Value Chain

Generation

TXU Power

2nd largest deregulated output

Low-cost lignite reserves

63 TWh of baseload production in gas on the margin market

Industry-leading performance and reliability

Transmission and

DistributionTXU Electric

Delivery

6th largest T&D company

Top quartile costs and reliability

High growth region

Efficient capital recovery

No commodity exposure

No retail customers

Retail

TXU Energy

Large scale competitive retailer

Loyal customers

Strong brand recognition

Superior service

Wholesale

TXU Wholesale

Access to largest ERCOT generation fleet

Access to largest ERCOT retail position

Incumbent regulatory advocacy and market design expertise

Power Development/Construction

Company9 GW active development program

Up to 3 GW per year phase 2 development program

Advantaged construction model

Active customer solutions business

5

TXU Power Development/Construction…To become the

leading originator and constructor of

baseload generation throughout the US

Develop steady pipeline of baseload opportunities to add

3 GW of new capacity annually

Construct baseload generation 35%

cheaper and faster and make 5% yearly

improvement

Originate long-term off-take agreements

and equity sell downs to ensure 30%

of construction is sold forward

PJM Development Program

Incumbent Customer Solutions Strategy

Industrial Partnerships

National Advocacy Initiative

Proprietary Construction Whole System Approach

Advantaged Relationships With Top Contractors And Manufacturers

Low-cost Country, Scaled Sourcing Program

Learning Curve Codification Program

Muni/Co-op Solutions

Industrial Solutions

Equity Partnership Solutions

Mission

Objectives

Strategies

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…Is Focused On Driving Advantages In Construction Costs And Origination Channels

1,100

1,6002,000

Recentanecdotes

US average TXU target

Leveraging scale to redefine costs…06E; $/KW

…and construction time…06; Months

…following other successful build programs…Kerr McGee Deepwater platform costs96-04; Index=100

…and locking up forward Texas power salesIncremental Municipal and Cooperative load05-15E; Percent

31%

42%

27%Active negotiations

Targeted demand

Demand not targeted

100% = 3.6 GW

0255075

100

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

30% learning curve factor

50 50

32

Recentantecdotes

US average TXU target

7

TXU Power…

To become the safest and most productive operator of baseload generation in the US

Achieve industry leading safety performance

Achieve top decile reliability and operating cost performance

Sustain year-over-year real productivity improvements of 5% across all operations

Safety-first Attitude Embedded In Culture

Comprehensive Training Program

Safety Recognition And Incentive Programs

Reliability Centered Maintenance Program

Worldwide Supply Chain Management

Reliability Optimization Initiative

Power Optimization Center Integration

TXU Operating System Phase II

Industrial Partnerships/ Global Best Practices

TXU Academy

Mission

Objectives

Strategies

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60

70

80

90

100

60 70 80 90 100

60

70

80

90

100

10 20 30 40 50

Top decile030508E

… Is Focused On Delivering Year-Over-Year Generation Performance Improvement

Capacity factor vs non-fuel O&M 03-08E; Percent, $/KW-yr

0.07

0.000.00

EEI topdecile

05 YTD 06

…combined with superior coal operations…Industry-leading safety performance…

…and a focus on continuous improvement…a top-performing nuclear operation…

32 2

1

7

RefiningSteel Telecom TXU Power (05-08E)

US Gen-eration

Industry annual productivity improvements83-03; Percent

Baseload plant lost time rate05-06; Incidents/200k hrs

Top decile03

0508E

Capacity factor vs non-fuel O&M2

03-08E; Percent, $/KW-yr

1 Average of EEI top decile fossil & nuclear lost time rate2 Normalized for outages & non recurring expenses

1

9

TXU Wholesale…Deliver best in class energy management services to internal

and external customers

Optimize value and manage risk across TXU native assets

Develop and expand wholesale market

presence

Provide proprietary commodity insights and perform market

advocacy

Retail Risk Mitigation Initiative

Commodity Hedging Program

Risk Management Culture

Systems/Process Initiative

Fundamentals And Quantitative Analysis Center

National Regulatory Advocacy Program

National Commodities Expansion Program

Ex-Texas Growth Initiative

Large Customer Solutions

Mission

Objectives

Strategies

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Emissions and WeatherNatural Gas

…Is Focused On Managing Key Risks To Support TXU’s Growth Objectives

0255075

100125150

0 20 40 60 80

PRB coal cost 03-06E; $/MMBtu

Ensuring competitive fuel sourcing… …and optimizing asset value…

…all leveraging proprietary market fundamental perspectives

1.43 1.39

1.24 1.23

03 04 05 06EMillions tons of coal

6.4 7.8 9.0 9.4

…while actively managing key risks…

Generation Wholesale Retail

Selling excess power forwardPurchasing required shaped powerDispatching power generationExecuting hedging transactions

Cumulative Capacity (GW)

Heat Rate

TXU Corp Net Natural Gas Economic Position07-10; Million MMBtu

~(5) to 5 ~0 to 10

~30 to 90

~95 to 175

07 08 09 10

11

TXU Energy…

To become the national leader in competitive

retail electricity

Achieve industry-leading

customer service

Continue developing innovative customer

solutions and offerings

Achieve 40% market share in

ERCOT residential

retail market

Enter new markets to grow $50

million business ex-

TexasWorry-free Service Positioning

Differential Care, Multi-channel Strategies

Self-service Technologies Initiative

Customer Loyalty Programs

Predictive Modeling

Churn Minimization Products Strategies

Multi-Channel Partnering Strategy

Mission

Objectives

Strategies

Long-Term Commercial Contract Strategy

Enhanced Hedging Program

Strategic Customer Acquisition Initiative

North Texas Three-year Price Protection

Value-Added Offering Strategy

Proprietary Technology Development Initiative

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…Is Focused On Creating An Industry-Leading Retail Model

Residential product offerings from AREPOct 06; Number

10

5 53 2

TXU RRI CPL WTU FC

Industry-leading customer satisfaction…

268

11 11

Average speed to answer03-08E; seconds

Top decile

…with a set of innovative offerings…

…combine to support Texas load growth… …and provide for growth in new markets

26 22

4 11

06 10E

ERCOT residential load 06-10E; TWh

30 33Out of territory

In territory

03 05 08E

Active competitionPotential competition

13

TXU Electric Delivery…

To become the most economical and

reliable shipper of electricity in the US

Achieve top-decile reliability with SAIDI

of less than 60 minutes per year

Ensure operating performance goals while maintaining top-quartile cost

performance

Achieve congestion reductions of 50%

through grid management and

investment

Asset Rehabilitation And Modernization Initiative

Distributed Smart Grid Technologies

Broadband Over Power Line Network

Infrastrux Energy Services Strategic Partnership

Self-healing Network Via Smart Switches

Advanced Technology Development Initiative

Grid Optimization Though Wide Area Visualization Program

Transmission Grid Capacity Initiative

Processor-based Protection Systems

Mission

Objectives

Strategies

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… Is Focused On Cost-Efficient And Reliable Performance

70

1,570

2,770

05 08E 10E

Automated meter installations05-10E; Cumulative (thousands)

Non-storm SAIDI03-08E; Minutes

O&M and SG&A per customer03-08E; $/customer

707774

03 05 08E

Top decile

166184186

03 05 08E

Improving system reliability… …and cost structure…

… while focusing on technology… …and capital investment

283 293407

600 731

81-90 91-95 96-00 01-04 06-11

Average annual capex investment81-11E; $ millions

E

15

Today’s Agenda

Financial Outlook

Financial Outlook

Short-term Financial GrowthFinancial SensitivitiesLong-term Sources And Uses Of Cash

Business Unit Strategies

Business Unit Strategies

TXU Development/TXU ConstructionTXU Power TXU WholesaleTXU EnergyTXU Electric Delivery

Generation Growth PlanGeneration

Growth Plan

America’s Power ChallengeThe Texas SolutionA National Solution

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Key Challenges Facing United States Power Industry

Decreasing reliability caused by power demand growth and generation permitting and construction challenges1

3 Increasing electricity prices caused by high-priced natural gas and utilization of less efficient generation capacity

4 Sub-optimal environmental performance caused by continued use of aging, inefficient existing generation

2 Increasing reliance on imported energy caused by a 300 GW buildout of gas capacity combined with decreasing US reserves

17

Decreasing Reliability…1

3,600

3,800

4,000

4,200

05 06 07E 08E 09E 10E

Sustained US power demand growth...US electricity demand 05-10E; TWh 8%

Minimum reserve margin

…and projected low reserve margins 07E-11E; GW

15 14 1519

9 811

5

ERCOT MRO RFC WECC

07E

11E

Source: NERC

…combined with complex policy issues…Breakeven power prices06; $/MWh

180

86 73 60 50-53

Solar Wind Nuclear CCGT Coal

Not dispatchable

…have created a supply-demand imbalance…Incremental demand and supply growth06-15E; GW

141

57

Demand SupplySource: NERC

Incremental demand exceeds supply 2.5x

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… With An Increasing Reliance On Natural Gas…2

1719212325

95 97 99 01 03 05 07E 09E

…causing a growing supply deficit…US Natural gas supply and demand95-10E; TCF

Supply

Demand

…has increased US demand for natural gas…US natural gas demand95-05; TCF

18 17

4 5

95 05

22

Other

29%29%

7%7%

Power22

A massive natural gas generation buildout…US generation development 95 - 06; GW

Nat Gas Renew Coal Hydro Other

13 9 72

296

Source: Energy Velocity

14

41

315

27

…and increasing reliance on foreign reserves…World natural gas reserves05; Percent

RussiaOther

Qatar

Iran

U.S.

(100% = 6,338 TCF)

19

…Has Caused Increased Prices…3

02468

1012

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

Higher natural gas costs…95-10E; $/MMBtu

343%343%

1.7

4.5

2.02.5

3.13.5

…and growing demand across the US…Increase in year over year peak demand by NERC region06; Percent

PJM ERCOT SPP CAISO ISO-NE NY-ISO

1933

5972

MD DE PAIL

…with the expectation of higher pricesImpact on residential rates06-07E; Percent increase

0

50

100

150

0 20 40 60 80

…is increasing heat rates…ERCOT supply curve example06; $/MWh @ $8/MMBtu gas

Cumulative Capacity (GW)

Peak demand06 10E

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…And Less Than Optimal Environmental Performance

…resulting in higher emissionsNOX emission rate06; lb/MMBtu

0.03 0.050.13

0.33

CCGT New coal Peakerunit

Old coal

Increasing usage with decreasing reserve margins

4

…causing the US to rely on an aging fleet…Age of US coal fleet 06; Percent

9%1%16%

8%

34% 32%

>50yrs<10yrs

10-20yrs

21-30yrs31-40yrs

41-50yrs100% = 313 GW

Environmental performance has improved…Electric demand vs. key emissions80-05; Indexed to 1980 levels

0

50

100

150

200

80 85 90 95 00 05

Electricusage

SO2NOX

...but construction cycles remain long based on permitting uncertainty…06E; Months

120

7245

24

CCGT PC IGCC Nuclear

21

TXU Started By Meeting These Challenges In Texas

Ensuring reliability and reducing reliance of natural gas through a plan to bring on 9 GW of new capacity by 2010, rebalancing the Texas supply stack and helping to maintain adequate reserve margins through 2014

5

Lowering prices by leveraging a scale power generation program to displace high cost generation and share savings with our customers

6

Improving the environment through the largest ever voluntary offset program and displacement of less efficient generation capacity

7

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9 7 5

312

1211

151617

2926

30

23

16

0

10

20

30

40

00 03 06E 09E

TXU’s Program Will Help Ensure Reliability And Reduce Reliance On Natural Gas In Texas…

Historical and projected ERCOT reserve margins00-11E; Percent

2000 – 2004 22 GW of natural gas fired

generation added; adequate supplies

2000 – 2004 22 GW of natural gas fired

generation added; adequate supplies

2005 – 2007Rapid

demand growth

eliminates reserve

2005 – 2007Rapid

demand growth

eliminates reserve

2008 – 2011+Dangerously low supplies

require 1.5 GW per year

2008 – 2011+Dangerously low supplies

require 1.5 GW per year

Source: ERCOT, 10/1/05 and 6/19/06

1917

12

Impact of TXU Power Generation Program

5

65 5842

4258

35

US Texas 06E Texas 10E

77 GW100%= 1,070 GW

Gas

Other

90 GW

Generation capacity by fuel type06-10E; Percent

Reduction in gas reliance and

volatility by shifting the stack away from gas towards solid

fuel

Reduction in gas reliance and

volatility by shifting the stack away from gas towards solid

fuel

23

…Allowing TXU To Deliver Lower Cost Power To Its Customers…

50-53

76-79 17

45

Decreased capital costs

TXU target

Decreased fuel costs

Expectations for subscale builder

Without scale, it would be virtually impossible for TXU to deliver needed cost savings to its customers

Without scale, it would be virtually impossible for TXU to deliver needed cost savings to its customers

Breakeven power prices for TXU’s Power Generation Program06E; $/MWh

Operational advantages

1.7

Market savings

Total annual ERCOT market savings11E; $ billionsForward power price

6

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…While Continuing To Improve The Texas Environment…

TXU has committed to the largest voluntary emissions reduction in U.S. historyTXU’s plan will more than double its capacity in Texas while cutting key emissions by 20% and its emission rates by 70%

TXU has committed to the largest voluntary emissions reduction in U.S. historyTXU’s plan will more than double its capacity in Texas while cutting key emissions by 20% and its emission rates by 70%

0.012.10.0Additional reductions from displacement of 3rd

party units

(20%)(20%)(20%)Reduction relative to 05 TXU emissions

.00058.454.6Total TXU reductions

(30%)(82%)(63%)TXU emissions rates1 relative to US average

.002033.7218.5Emissions after new development and voluntary reductions

2nd1st1stUS ranking1 among 20 largest coal generators

.0025

HgNOXSO2Estimated key emissions

Thousands of tons273.1 42.12005 emissions (nine existing facilities)

7

1 TXU after new power generation development program and retrofits; relative to average US coal plant

25

…And Investing To Ensure The Plants Are Ready For Potential Future Regulations

7…and being designed for potential future carbon capture

Options for CO2 storage

TXU status

IEA1 requirements to be considered carbon capture ready

Design studies on potential separation methodologies

Pre-investments including plant siting

Sufficient space in critical access locations

TXU is commercializing the most efficient coal plants and continues to ensure the plants will be able to be retrofitted with carbon capture technology in the future

TXU is commercializing the most efficient coal plants and continues to ensure the plants will be able to be retrofitted with carbon capture technology in the future

1,0501,0501,050

1,0851,085

Building the most efficient plants in the country…Coal plant steam outlet temperatures for plants under construction06E; Degrees Fahrenheit

Meet EPRI advanced supercritical standard

TXU reference

plant

Plant A

Plant B

Plant C

Plant D

1 International Energy Agency

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TXU’s Texas Program Is Progressing Well, Despite Market Shifts In Cost And Regulatory Delay

Leveraged Kaizen events to design most economical advanced supercritical boiler that is carbon capture and sequestration readyPlant design

Uncovering opportunities for improvements to be used in next phaseSupply chain

Successfully executed significant hedging transactions to support ability to project finance Hedging

Open book process continuing on scheduleSome labor pressure, but plants coming in on schedule

Construction

Reference plant draft permits issued - final permits expected 2Q07 Oak Grove delayed to January but no impact on critical pathSandow consent decree pending resolution

Permitting

Gas weakened slightlyReserve margin expectations continue to tighten

Market environment

Active negotiations with over 1 GW of long-term demandIn discussions to sign up majority of long-term Texas demand

PPA’s

Obtained commitment for $11 billion non-recourse project financingContinuing to evaluate optimal capital structure

Financing

LOI’s signed or in approval process for sale of 600 MW of Oak Grove and 50% of another facilitySell down process for equity participation in program underway

Equity partnerships

Constructive negotiations with shippers based on size and dual rail accessRail and fuel

RemarksGradeCategory

LowHigh

27

TXU Is Now Focusing On Its National Plan

8 Establishing profitable market entry strategies across markets to help customers meet their energy challenges

9Redefining the performance potential of new build baseload generation by taking advantage of the global supply learning curve to drive down prices and increase returns

10Advocating for tougher environmental standards and investing in technologies to redefine the environmental performance of new generation

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Expanding The Portfolio Outside Of Texas…8Working to build a business in PJM… …originating up to 10 GW of new generation…

714

35

Oil shale Tar sands Aluminum

…exploring the potential for long term energy intensive industrial demand…Potential incremental demand 20E; GW

…and designing a model for new coal to economically replace existing coal

Designing a model for

new coal to compete in coal on the

margin markets

High

Low

7X24 prices

Final fuel planKey stakeholder agreements completed by end of 06Geo-technical evaluation

3 GW of sites identified/securedPreliminary transmission studies completeSite engineering completePreliminary air modeling completePermit levels identified and discussed with states

OutstandingCompleted

2.53Letters of intent1

3.54Advanced discussions

45Preliminary discussions

00Definitive agreements

1012Total

GWUnitsStatus

1 Letter of intent signed or in approval process.

29

…Redefining Performance To Deliver Lower Cost Power And Open Up New Market Opportunities…

9

5950

40 32

US average TXU today TXU futuretarget

AverageLCC

Power prices06; $/MWh

…that could help TXU deliver lower costs…

Sourcing in Low Cost Countries (LCC)…

Sourced in LCC

Coal plant component costs06; $/KW

98 77

335

58 57

195

Boilers Turbines Balance of plant

Sourced in US

40%40% 26%26% 42%42%

600

1,000

1,400

1,800

2,200

7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5

…potentially creating a new market opportunityBreakeven conditions to displace generation06; $/KW of capital cost

Plant heat rate (MMBtu/MWh)

Displace existing gas

Displace old coal Today

TXU vision

…implying a $300/KW advantage in the US…

540 80850230

Incremental env. capital

LCC coal plant

US labor

US normalized

Normalized LCC construction cost06E; $/KW

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…Advocating For Tougher Environmental Standards And Investing To Improve Performance…

10…and CO2 emissions over the long term…

CO2 emissions rate20E; Tons/ MWh

0.80 0.54

0.42

0.96

Coal today

Reduction levers

Long-term vision -CCGT

Peaking gas

(11 HR)

TXU is redefining environmental standards for regulated emissions...

For every incremental 1 ton of emissions of SO2, NOX, and Hg from new generation, existing emissions in Texas must be reduced by at least 1.2 tons

For every incremental 1 ton of emissions of SO2, NOX, and Hg from new generation, existing emissions in Texas must be reduced by at least 1.2 tons

Fuel

Generation Demand

…while working to commercialize technologies across the entire value chain…

Combustion Gasification Efficiency Flue gas

removalCustomer initiatives

• Coal cleaning

• Waste to energy

• Oxy-firing

• R&D partnership

• Solid CO2capture

• Chilled NH3

• MEA• Storage

study

• Time of use retail products

• CO2 free products

• Efficiency solutions

…and starting an environmental ventures fund to spur investment in this area

$200millionfund

TXU

Bank

Venture capital

Equipment supplier

Advisory Board

31

TXU Is Positioning Itself To Be A Leader Over The Long Term…

Proven track record of value creation, capital allocation, and risk management

Valuation and risk management

Internal group with development and nodal modeling capabilities across multiple regions

Transmission expertise

Internal group of professionals with global experience in multiple technology developments

Development expertise

Developing national capabilities to augment strong Texas skill base

National advocacy

Proprietary Whole System Approach to construction

Construction expertise

Successfully implemented global sourcing effort to reduce construction cost and time

Global supply chain management

Track record of best in class performance and experience in fuel handling and blending

Baseload operational and fuel handling expertise

Developing national capabilities to augment strong Texas skill base

National regulatory expertise

DescriptionTXU Key capability

Low

High

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16-23

92-4

5-10

ERCOT MerchantPJM

Customerbusiness

Total

…And Has Line Of Sight Around 17 GW Of New Generation Development

…and TXU has line of sight around 17 GW of development06-20E; GW

TXU is in substantive negotiations to develop 8 GW outside of ERCOTTXU is in substantive negotiations to develop 8 GW outside of ERCOT

45

78

160

Total US growthopportunity (06-20)

Advanced coal replacing existing gas

Advanced coal replacing existing coal

Incremental growth

283

There is potentially an enormous opportunity to add new generation…06-20E; GW

33

Today’s Agenda

Financial Outlook

Financial Outlook

Short-term Financial GrowthFinancial SensitivitiesLong-term Sources And Uses Of Cash

Business Unit Strategies

Business Unit Strategies

TXU Development/TXU ConstructionTXU Power TXU WholesaleTXU EnergyTXU Electric Delivery

Generation Growth PlanGeneration

Growth Plan

America’s Power ChallengeThe Texas SolutionA National Solution

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Commodity and Capital Allocation Impacts Have Reshaped The Earnings Power

~(.45)0Sell-down reduces risk and improves capital returns but reduces EPS

9.75-10.0015.75May 06 business plan

7.55-7.855.25-5.55Current business plan2

~(.50)~(.15)

Increased growth investment, reduced OCF, and higher share prices reduce the # of share repurchased

~(1.20)~(.20)

Lower wholesale power prices reduce gross margins for TXU Power and reduce TXU Energy’s gross margin when they are passed on to customers; PRB increases

1107Earning Power Impact

CommoditiesCommodities

CapitalAllocationCapital

Allocation

Sell-downsSell-downs

TXU’s new build strategy enables a 5-year growth trajectory of 8-10% TXU’s new build strategy enables a 5-year growth trajectory of 8-10% 1 2010 indicative earnings as of May 20062 Indicative pro forma for 2007 and 2011 reflects current targets for the 11 new generation units currently planned in Texas. 2007E operational earnings

estimate excludes fees, expenses, and interest associated with debt that is part of the expected TXU Power Development nonrecourse financing package.

35

TXU is investing in its core business while returning a significant amount of capital to shareholders. Over 06-11, > $1 bn is earmarked for additional growth investments

TXU is investing in its core business while returning a significant amount of capital to shareholders. Over 06-11, > $1 bn is earmarked for additional growth investments

07E-11E

19-22

Core portfolio capex

Cash for investment/distribution

OCF

Sources of cash1

07E-11E (indicative); $ billions

07E-11E

Uses of cash1

07E-11E (indicative); $ billions

Dividends

De-levering

Electric Delivery debt

19-22

Through 2011 TXU Is Generating Significant Free Cash Flow And Planning Very Significant Investments

16.5-18.0

1.5-2.01.0-2.0

8.5-9.5

3.5-4.0

1.5-2.0

5.5-6.5

New plant equity sell-down

1 Excludes capital expenditures and operating cash flows for the 11 new ERCOT development units expected to be reimbursed from TXUPower Development Company’s non-recourse financing.

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TXU’s Risk Strategy Will Lock-In Substantial Value For The New Build Projects…New build program NPV distribution06; Number of trials

1.00.51.01.0New GW

$0.20-$0.25

Base exposure

Base exposure

1.6

30% reduction65% reduction30% reductionGas exp.

$0.35-$0.45$0.15-$0.20$0.19-$0.24Earnings (GW)

0% reduction49% reduction0% reductionCarbon exp.

4.22.41.6PV/I

Merchant coal plant

-1000 0 1000

P(NPV<0)= 13%

1Impact: Hedges/PPA’s

-1000 0 1000

Hedge volumes for debt financing and sell forward volumes above hold case

P(NPV<0)= 7%

2

-1000 0 1000

Impact: Sell downs

Sell down up to 49% equity at prices at or above hold

case

P(NPV<0)= 3%

3

-1000 0 1000

Impact: Continued build and performance

Continue to construct capacity and ride down

learning curve

P(NPV<0)= 1.5%

4

37

3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

Value of new build strategy to TXU 06

Levelized natural gas price$/MMBtu

…While Helping To Build The Option To Capture Upside

A merchant model is completely levered to gas prices with the potential to destroy value at low gas prices

The combination of locking in value today through hedging, PPA’s and sell downs and building the option to add capacity creates a robust business model

The combination of locking in value today through hedging, PPA’s and sell downs and building the option to add capacity creates a robust business model

The combination of hedges, and sell downs reduces gas exposure and helps to ensure value capture even in downside cases

Developing the option to build allows TXU to capture significant upside in high commodity environments

Option to build comes in the money

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38

Expansion Opportunities Give TXU The Ability To Grow Under Different Scenarios…

~30

~20

~9

GW added by 2015

The backwardated gas curve, combined with slow technology advances provides a limited window over the next 10 years for coal to be the winning new build technologyNew coal is not advantaged enough to fully displace existing coal

Advanced coal on gas opportunity

Improvements in new coal technology, costs, efficiency, and environmental performance allow it to displace existing, inefficient, high emission generationThe 280 GW opportunity for new development becomes economically available

Advanced coal on old coal opportunity

Backwardated gas prices, severe greenhouse gas regulations, slow technology improvements, and/or regulatory barriers limit the potential for coal outside of Texas

Texas only

DescriptionScenario

39

… And The Ability To Grow EBITDA In A BackwardatedCommodity Environment

11.22.5

2.5

6.20.51.0~6.7

TXU 2011E

(including ERCOT

new build)

Potential EBITDA11E-15E; $ billions

Backwar-dated

commodity environment

Core business performance

improvements

TXU 2015E in Texas

only scenario

Advanced coal on gas opportunity

Advanced coal on coal opportunity

2015E potential

Successful execution of the build strategy could provide a solid long-term EBITDA growth strategy overcoming the backwardated commodity environment

Successful execution of the build strategy could provide a solid long-term EBITDA growth strategy overcoming the backwardated commodity environment

7-14%CAGR7-14%CAGR

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TXU: Competitively Positioned To Meet America’s Energy Challenges

1. Competitively advantaged businesses across the value chain positioned for long-term success– Structurally advantaged low cost position difficult to replicate– Industrial skill set focused on top decile operations– Scale to drive waste out of the value chain

2. Business model to profitably meet America’s energy challenges– Advantaged build model to help improve reliability, lower prices and improve the

environment– Focus on driving new build construction costs to worldwide low cost levels– Advocacy for tougher environmental standards to help remove inefficient existing

generation from service– Investment in the next generation of technology to improve the environment

3. Balanced focus on rigorous capital allocation and organic growth that will overcome the backwardated commodity environment– Reduced 07E earnings based on a functioning competitive market and value

being returned to the customer– 5-year earnings growth of ~8% to 10% based on the Texas new build program– Continued long term EBITDA growth based on success of Ex-ERCOT strategy

1. Competitively advantaged businesses across the value chain positioned for long-term success– Structurally advantaged low cost position difficult to replicate– Industrial skill set focused on top decile operations– Scale to drive waste out of the value chain

2. Business model to profitably meet America’s energy challenges– Advantaged build model to help improve reliability, lower prices and improve the

environment– Focus on driving new build construction costs to worldwide low cost levels– Advocacy for tougher environmental standards to help remove inefficient existing

generation from service– Investment in the next generation of technology to improve the environment

3. Balanced focus on rigorous capital allocation and organic growth that will overcome the backwardated commodity environment– Reduced 07E earnings based on a functioning competitive market and value

being returned to the customer– 5-year earnings growth of ~8% to 10% based on the Texas new build program– Continued long term EBITDA growth based on success of Ex-ERCOT strategy

Appendix –Regulation G Definitions

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42

Financial Definitions

Cash provided by operating activities.Operating Cash Flow (GAAP)

Operational Earnings Per Share (a non-GAAP measure) is defined as per share (diluted) income from continuing operations, excluding special items. Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2006, TXU also plans to exclude all effects of unrealized cash flow hedging ineffectiveness and market-to-market gains or/and losses on positions in its long- term hedging program from operational earnings because management believes such presentation will more appropriately reflect the ongoing earnings of the business. The effect is that only realized gains and losses on positions in the long-term hedging program are reflected in operational earnings. TXU forecasts earnings on such operational earnings basis and is unable to reconcile forecasted operational earnings to a GAAP financial measure because forecasts of special items and material non-recurring items or ineffectiveness or market-to-market gains or losses on its long term hedging program are not practical. TXU relies on operational earnings for evaluation of performance and believes that analysis of the business by external users is enhanced by visibility to both reported GAAP earnings and operational earnings.

Operational Earnings per Share (non-GAAP)

Income from continuing operations before interest income, interest expense and related charges, and income tax plus depreciation and amortization and special items. EBITDA is a measure used by TXU to assess performance.

EBITDA (non-GAAP)

Capital expenditures.Capex

DefinitionMeasure