energy future holindings _EEI
description
Transcript of energy future holindings _EEI
EEI Conference
C. John WilderChief Executive Officer
November 8, 2005
1
Safe Harbor StatementThis presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from management's current projections, forecasts, estimates and expectations is contained in the company's SEC filings. In addition to the risks and uncertainties set forth in the company's SEC filings, the forward-looking statements in this release could be affected by the ability of the company to implement the initiatives that are part of its operational improvement and cost reduction program and financial and growth strategies, and the terms under which the company executes those initiatives, the ability of the company to execute its share repurchase program and the actions of its board of directors with respect to future dividends and other cash distributions to shareholders, which will be based upon a number of factors, including the company’s profit levels, operating cash flow levels and capital requirements as well as financial and other business conditions existing at the time.
Regulation GThis presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure is included in the appendix of the printed version of the slides and the version included on the company’s website at www.txucorp.com under Investor Resources/Presentations.
2
Today’s Agenda
Financial PrinciplesFinancial Principles
• Financial Outlook And Growth• Financial Sensitivities• Long-Term Sources And Uses Of Cash
TXU TodayTXU Today• The TXU Turnaround • Core Strategic Principles
Business Unit Strategies
Business Unit Strategies
• TXU Power • TXU Retail/Wholesale• TXU Electric Delivery
Risk/Market OutlookRisk/Market Outlook• Natural Gas• Heat Rate• Capital Allocation Principles
3
65
37
TXU
Too Much Debt: Debt/Total Enterprise ValueJan 04; Percent
Top quartile (S&P Electric)
43%43%
1.1
11.9
TXU
Poor Returns: Annual TRSJan 94 - Jan 04; Percent
Top quartile (S&P Electric)
January 2004: TXU Was Challenged By The Transition To Its New Competitive Environment
12.09.8
TXU Best in class
Costly Operations: Nuclear Oper. Costs03; $/MWh
18%18% 280
12
TXU Best in class
Poor Service: Average Speed To Answer03; Seconds
96%96%
981%
4
To Compete In This New Environment, TXU Designed And Is Executing A Three Phase Improvement Plan…
Phase 1:Risk And Return Restructuring
Phase 3:Ongoing Value
Creation
Phase 2:Performance Improvement
Today
• Sold disadvantaged businesses • Quickly reallocated $14 billion to repair balance sheet• Reduced major risks
• Identified $1.3 billion in performance improvements over 3 years
• Identified $900 million in year one – outperforming plan
5
…The Execution Of The Turnaround Plan Has Created Significant Value For TXU Shareholders By Focusing On Three Key Levers
26
23
20
4
557
319
26
25
25
Gains Across The Board: TXU Value Creation 05; $/share
Portfolio management and capital allocation
Performance management
Stock priceFeb 04
Gas plant improve-
ments(dispatch and cost)
CGE cost reductions
Other costs
(bad debt, sourcing,
SG&A)
Baseload capacity
factor
Stock Price Today
Share repurchases
and asset sales
Hedge removal
Total value creation is greater than $15 billionTotal value creation is greater than $15 billion
Commodity increases
Risk management
276%276%
94
Based on price as of November 4th
6
TXU’s Strategy Reflects Core Beliefs About What It Takes To Win In The Energy Business
• Just like in other capital intensive sectors, scale is necessary to standardize operations, gain critical mass, and extract rent from suppliers
• “Quality scale” is needed to gain access to advantaged new build, and gain competitive and regulatory leadership
Long-Term Winners Must Leverage Not Only Scale But “Quality Scale”3
• Superior operations and performance management can drive a 200 basis-point increase in ROIC
• Many companies in the sector have not transformed their performance level to reflect a competitive environment (delta between median and top quartile is 10-20%)
An Industrial Skill Set Is Crucial For Continual High Performance2
• Energy markets will continue to go through cycles; only assets with a structural cost advantage will win over the long term
• Structurally advantaged positions provide better opportunities over the long term
Long-Term Success In The Energy Sector Is Based On Having Access To Structurally Advantaged Assets1
RationalePrinciple
7
Principle 1: TXU’s Core Businesses Are Structurally Advantaged Across The Entire Value Chain
Structural advantages
TXU Power
Generation
2nd largest U.S. deregulated output
Access to low cost lignite reserves
63 TWh of baseload production in a gas on the margin market
TXU Electric Delivery
Transmission and Distribution
6th largest U.S. transmission & distribution company
Top quartile costs and reliability
High growth NERC region (2.0%)
Efficient capital recovery
No commodity exposure
No retail customers
TXU Energy
Retail
Large scale competitive retailer
Loyal customer base
Strong brand recognition
Superior service
Wholesale
TXU Wholesale
Access to largest ERCOT generation fleet
Access to largest ERCOT retail position
Incumbent expertise in regulatory advocacy and market design
05E EBITDA $1.2 B$2.6 - 2.7 B
TXU Competitive Business TXU Regulated Business
8
Principle 2: An Industrial Skill Set Will Help Drive Superior Returns Throughout The Cycle
Operational Excellence
• Top decile throughput • World class industrial
production costs• Industry leading reliability• Lean corporate SG&A
Market Leadership
• Superior customer service and brand management
• Customer segmentation and pricing
• Distinctive commodity sourcing
Risk/Return Mindset
• Strict capital allocation discipline
• Risk/return restructuring• Commodity risk
management
Performance Management• High performance culture• Balanced cascading scorecards• Employee development• Incentives linked to key value drivers
9
Principle 3: Multi-Market Leadership Is Crucial As Demonstrated By Similarities Between The E&P Sector And The Power Sector…
• Regulated model makes every transmission region different
• Power marketing constrained to regional transmission grids
• Exploration and development driven by local geology and infrastructure
Multi-local
• Regulated returns cycle based on interest rate cycle
• Power price cycle driven by gas price volatility, fuel price volatility, demand growth, investment conduct
• Oil/gas price cycles driven by investment conduct, declining economics and demand cyclicality
Cyclical
• All capex and rate structures must be approved by local/federal regulators
• State/federal regulators approve development and competitive market rules
• Country regimes define development rules and economics
Importance of regulatory
relationships
• T&D companies can often invest up to 10% of their market cap in annual capex
• Minimum efficient investment > $750 million
• Minimum efficient investment > $1 billion
Capital intensive
E&P Power Generation DeliveryCharacteristic
10
...And Looking At The Characteristics Of The Most Successful E&PCompanies…
H
61A
61B
25C
21D
7E
6F
0G
-5
Shareholder Value Creation (SVC)…91-01; $ billions
…has been driven by scale and quality of scale
1 “Market Leading” positions defined as having greater than 15% investment share in a basin with PVI > 2.
Scale:Equity Cap
High
LowLow High
Quality of Scale:Percent of value in “Market Leading”positions1
A
G
E
F
B
D
C
H
Actual E&PCompanies
11
…The Winning Strategy In The Power Sector Will Require The Combination Of Scale And Quality Of Scale
In the E&P sector, the combination of both factors was needed to drive significant value creation over time
In the E&P sector, the combination of both factors was needed to drive significant value creation over time
• Better access to future development opportunities
• Providing competitive leadership and capital discipline
• Providing regulatory leadership
• Standardization of operating practices
• Ability to take part in needed large capital investments
• Ability to extract excess rents from equipment suppliers
Competitive Advantages
• Taking advantage of sites like Oak Grove for new build
• Ensuring capital is invested appropriately in needed infrastructure
• Advocating that market rules (e.g., Nodal) develop to ensure fair competition
• Applying TXU Operating System across larger portfolio of assets
• Taking part in infrastructure build out without “betting the company”
• Leveraging bulk purchases to reduce equipment supplier costs and increase returns
TXU Application
Quality of scale
Scale
Key Principle
12
Scale Is Needed To Take A Meaningful Part In The Next Infrastructure Build Out
Major Project Capex$ billions
Equity Market Cap$ billions
Deepwater GOM development(e.g., Thunderhorse)
Project As Percent Of Market CapPercent
370
233
124
Exxon
CVX
BP
1.1
1.7
3.2
4
2000 MW coal plant
47
27
24
6.3
11.1
12.5
3
Exelon
TXU
Dominion
While E&P leaders have the scale to take the risk of major new build projects, in the deregulated power sector new build projects represent major bets
While E&P leaders have the scale to take the risk of major new build projects, in the deregulated power sector new build projects represent major bets
131 “Market leading” defined as percent of state T&D assets >30%.
Scal
e: N
et T
&D
pla
nt in
ser
vice
in
ERC
OT/
SPP
High
Low
Low High
Quality of Scale: Percent of total assets in “Market Leading” positions1
TXU
WinningStrategy
TXU Electric Delivery’s Aspiration Is To Establish A Winning Position in ERCOT/SPP
Most delivery companies lack scale, despite some quality positions in a particular stateWhile a couple of players have established leadership positions, none has taken a leading position across multiple regions
Most delivery companies lack scale, despite some quality positions in a particular stateWhile a couple of players have established leadership positions, none has taken a leading position across multiple regions
Actual DeliveryCompanies
141 “Market Leader” defined as solid fuel TWh >10% of NERC region merchant TWh.
Scal
e: T
otal
mer
chan
t gen
erat
ion
High
Low
Low High
Quality of Scale: Percent of value in “Market Leading” positions1
TXU
WinningStrategy
TXU Power’s Aspiration Is To Follow The “Regional Market Leader”Strategy And Replicate Its Quality Scale Position In Other Deregulated Markets
No deregulated company has been able to establish “quality scale” in multiple marketsThere are a number of companies that have high quality positions but lack the scale to extract “Market Leader” value
No deregulated company has been able to establish “quality scale” in multiple marketsThere are a number of companies that have high quality positions but lack the scale to extract “Market Leader” value
Actual PowerCompanies
15
Today’s Agenda
Financial PrinciplesFinancial Principles
TXU TodayTXU Today• The TXU Turnaround • Core Strategic Principles
Business Unit Strategies
Business Unit Strategies
• TXU Power • TXU Retail/Wholesale• TXU Electric Delivery
Risk/Market OutlookRisk/Market Outlook• Natural Gas• Heat Rate• Capital Allocation Principles
• Financial Outlook And Growth• Financial Sensitivities• Long-Term Sources And Uses Of Cash
16
TXU Power Has A Structurally Advantaged Portfolio In A Market With Strong Fundamentals…
Large Portfolio05; TWh of deregulated generation
TXU
178
62 62 46 46 44 40 37 30
ERCOT Average Implied Heat Rate04; MMBtu/MWh
Cumulative GWs
TXU units
369
1215182124
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Nuclear(2.3 GW)
Lignite(5.8 GW)
Gas(10.2 GW)
Solid fuel capacity provides low cost baseload power
Gas fleet provides shaping and ancillary services
Source: PlattsEXC NRG/
TGND PPL EME FE AYE ETR
Source: Platts
Low Coal Prices1
05; $/MMBtu
1.72.1 2.3
2.6
3.5 3.53.8 4.0
TXUECARMAPP
WECC MAINSERCFRCC MAAC
7565 61 60 56 54 54 53 52 50
Robust Wholesale Power Prices 05; $/MWh
NPCCMAIN
ERCOTMAAC SPP
WECC
1 Emissions-adjusted.
FRCCSERC MRO
ECAR
17
Based On Core Beliefs About Value Creation, TXU Power Has Designed A Bottom-Up Business Unit Strategy
TXU Power
Continue To Strengthen The ERCOT Position
Gain Scale Outside Of ERCOT And
Build Market Leader Position
Leverage TXU Operating System to continue to drive increased value from Texas baseload fleet
Take advantage of existing sites (Sandow, Oak Grove) to add new capacity in Texas
Scale TXU Operating System to improve 3rd party assets
Leverage creative transactional solutions with counterparties who share our vision
Develop deeper multi-market wholesale capabilities
The ultimate goal is to develop sustainable competitive positions in multiple markets
The ultimate goal is to develop sustainable competitive positions in multiple markets
18
0102030405060708090
100
3rd Quartile
O&M For Non-Scrubbed Coal Fleet2 (n=160)02-04; $/KW-year
In Coal Generation, TXU’s Goal Is To Redefine High Performance Utilization While Simultaneously Achieving High Performance Costs
4th Quartile
Capacity Factor For US National Coal Fleet1 (n=225)02-04; Percent
TXU Power is driving increased production and cost reduction via the Operating System TXU Power is driving increased production and cost reduction via the Operating System 1 Sample set includes all coal plants > 450 MWs.2 Sample set includes all coal plants > 450 MWs, 2002-2004 non-scrubbed coal plants. TXU plants normalized for scrubbing & fuel type.
92%
08
$69M
EBITDA improvement
90%Total
05Plant
1st Quartile2nd Quartile
82.1 76.2 68.7 58.6
0508
0102030405060708090
100
05
17.0 21.0 25.7 32.3
08
$21
08
$30M
EBITDA improvement
$26Total
05Plant
1st Quartile2nd Quartile
3rd Quartile4th Quartile
03
03
19
Making Progress: Capacity Factor02-04; Percent
More Productive: Non-Fuel O&M02-04; $/kW
95.4
91.3
92.6
95.1
TXU 03-05
Exelon Large
Plants1
TXU 06-08
TXU 03-05
Exelon Large
Plants1
TXU 06-08
79
10194 89
Closing the gap on capacity factor and cost will have ~$120 million upside relative to 03-05
Closing the gap on capacity factor and cost will have ~$120 million upside relative to 03-05
1 Exelon large plants include Byron, Braidwood, Lasalle, Limerick, and Peach Bottom.
TXU 08-10
TXU 08-10
The Goal In Nuclear Is To Replicate Top Fleet Performance At A Single Plant
20
TXU Has Access To Two Development Opportunities In Texas…Sandow Unit 5Rockdale, Texas
1 LI refers to Limestone Injection; SNCR refers to Selective Non-Catalytic Reduction.2 FGD refers to Flue Gas Desulphurization; SCR refers to Selective Catalytic Reduction.
Oak Grove Steam Electric Station Robertson County, Texas
SCPCTechnology
2X2Configuration
LignitePrimary Fuel
FGD/SCR2SO2 and NOX Controls
1,720Installed Capacity (MW)
Key Statistic
2 mos. after permitBegin Construction
June 09/Dec 09Commercial Operation
In-ProcessAir Permit
Key Milestones
CFBTechnology
2X1Configuration
LignitePrimary Fuel
LI/ SNCR1SO2 and NOX Controls
600Installed Capacity (MW)
Key Statistic
April 06Resume Construction
Oct 08Commercial Operation
CompleteAir Permit
Key Milestones
21
…That Deliver Strong Returns With A Strong Expected Hedged Position…
55165265230Capex
757575Est. hedged output-%
707015Net income
06
160
10
165
09
45
0807
EBITDA
Sandow 5 – 600 MW06E-10E; $ millions
PV/I = 1.5IRR = 11%Cash payback = 9 years
PV/I = 1.5IRR = 11%Cash payback = 9 years
Oak Grove – 1,720 MW06E-10E; $ millions
PV/I = 1.7IRR = 14.2%Cash payback = 8 years
PV/I = 1.7IRR = 14.2%Cash payback = 8 years
15250650740260Capex
7575Est. hedged output-%
28530Net income
06
575
10
165
090807
EBITDA
22
…Based On The Ability To Drive High Performance Across All Aspects Of The Project
0.40.1
0.30.3
(0.1)
0.7
1.7
Respectable Returns: Oak Grove Project Economics - NPV05; $ billions
Value$/kW
-30 180 90410
IRRPercent
The difference between a regulated new build and a industrial new build is significant; without both the commercial and operational skill set, new build
economics will not work
The difference between a regulated new build and a industrial new build is significant; without both the commercial and operational skill set, new build
economics will not work
Plant value based on
“regulated”performance
Compression of build
schedule by 1 year
Reduction in capex by $250/
kW
Reduction in O&M by
$10/kW- year
Increase in capacity factor by
10%
Access to advantaged
fuel
170 260
Optimized value
1,080
5.6% 2.3% 0.5%2.3%1.8% 1.7% 14.2%
23
Other asset-intensive industries that have had similar characteristics have consolidated and created value
Other asset-intensive industries that have had similar characteristics have consolidated and created value
Consolidation Opportunity
Fragmented Ownership
Top 5 merchant players account for only 12% of national coal capacity
Fragmented Ownership
Top 5 merchant players account for only 12% of national coal capacity
Wholesale Market Deregulation
Competitive wholesale markets have aligned incentives with risks
Wholesale Market Deregulation
Competitive wholesale markets have aligned incentives with risks
Performance Variability
Performance Variability
Fundamental Gas Price Shift
Dark spreads are up 81%, driving plant values up over 100%
Fundamental Gas Price Shift
Dark spreads are up 81%, driving plant values up over 100%
Variances between 1st and 4th quartile: •Capacity factor: 57%•Cost: 261%
Market Forces Have Converged To Create An Opportunity To Consolidate And Improve Coal Generation…
24
Identifying The Value Opportunity Starts With Focusing On Assets That Fit TXU’s Core Strengths…
US Fleet
Rationale
# Plants
Capacity (GW, 04)
• Nuclear already consolidated
• Gas plants are a market timing bet
• TXU Operating System focused on coal
• Greater opportunity to retain value in merchant fleet
• Quicker/cheaper transaction execution
• TXU Operating System most effective on large plants
• Small plants generally older and marginal
597
306 GW
279
95 GW
108
80 GW
15,757
959 GW
US Coal US Merchant Coal
US Merchant Coal >100 MW
Generation (TWh, 04)
3,950 TWh 1,950 TWh 550 TWh 530 TWh
25
…And Estimating The Performance Improvements By Replicating TXU’s Performance Across The Entire Merchant Coal Fleet
4.1
EBITDA Improvement Potential For Targeted US Merchant Coal Fleet1
$ billions
Target
Aspiration
Total improvement would be valued at over $40 billionTotal improvement would be valued at over $40 billion
2.4
0.9
0.70.5 4.9 0.8
1 Power prices estimated using 2010 forward price of $7.05 natural gas.
Value creation
$/kW
510
370
Capacity factor
Envupgrades
Non-fuel O&M
Heat rate
Fuel cost
Gross value
Cost to achieve
Net value
0.4
26
Applying These Value Levers To Individual Plants Produces A Targeted Origination List Of Counterparties
Relative ImprovementPercent
EBITDA Improvement$ millions
3525150100H3020160100I2015165115J
50
8595
225245220160140
Target
15
25253030304050
Target
20
35404040405060
Aspiration180A220B
140F
70
130
325345300
Aspiration
K
G
EDC
Operator
TXU will leverage creative transaction structures to minimize premiumsTXU will leverage creative transaction structures to minimize premiums
27
TXU’s Aspiration To Double The Size Of The Coal Portfolio Over The Next 5+ Years
TXU is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy of organic growth and transactions to reach its portfolio goals
TXU is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy of organic growth and transactions to reach its portfolio goals
0.8-1.63.9-7.731-4730-603.5-7.0Potential transactions
1.63.253-69688.5TXU today + Organic growth
12-15.5
2.70.51.70.5
5.8
Coal capacity
(GW)
2010 Target
Organic growthOther Texas existing sitesOak GroveSandow 5
2006 TXU
0.63.217-2222
2.4-3.27.1-10.910098-128
0.62.00.6
0.02
Capital investment ($ billions)
1.036-4746
0.3511-14140.11
0.10
Oper.Earnings1
($ billions)
3-44
3-44
% of 2010 target
Coal generation
(TWh)
1 Based on $60/MWh power.2 Does not include sustaining Capex.
28
105
7556
39
103
01 02 03 04 05
TXU Retail/Wholesale Is The Largest Competitive Retailer In AGrowth Market
2.41.9
0.9
0.2 0.1 0.1
Large Competitive Customer Base05; Millions of customers
TXU
Highly Competitive Market Oct 05; Number of certified ERCOT retailers
Strong Demand 03; Residential GWh/household
Sources: KEMA, company filings
RRI Direct Energy
First Choice
Green Mountain
Source: NERC
Source: PUC
High Growth05E-14E; Percent annual growth
FRCCWECC
ERCOTMRO
MAACSERC
MAINSPP
ECARNPCC
2.82.4
2.0 1.91.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6
1.3
15 15 15 15 15 1411 10 10
7 7
LA TN AL FL MS TX US OH PA NY CA
Gexa
Sources: EIA, BEA
29
Based On Core Beliefs About Value Creation, TXU Energy Has Designed A Bottom-Up Business Unit Strategy
TXU Retail/Wholesale
Return The North Texas Consumer Franchise
To Profitability
Opportunistically Build Profitable Businesses In
Other Customer Segments
Introduce innovative products and pricing plans that meet customer needs and provide sustaining margins
Continue to advocate for a market-based structure that encourages competition
Continue to redefine customer service to distinguish TXU Energy from its competitors
Take advantage of higher headroom opportunities in South Texas to acquire residential customers
Focus on higher margin customers in small, medium, and large commercial segments
Continue to drive cost leadership to enhance competitiveness across all segments
TXU Energy’s top priority is to restore profitability to North TexasTXU will continue to monitor opportunities outside of Texas
TXU Energy’s top priority is to restore profitability to North TexasTXU will continue to monitor opportunities outside of Texas
30
1 Based on average customer usage of 16,000 kWh/yr. with PUC-approved residential load profile; headroom defined as PTB rate – cost of energy (avg. NYMEX 12 mo. strip x 7.8 heat rate x assumed 25% for load shaping, congestion, line losses and other ancillary costs) – avg. wires cost (based on published TXU Electric Delivery rates, excluding clawback).
2 NYMEX 12-month strip through 10/31/05.
North Texas Residential Headroom vs. Gas Price Since Market Open02-05; Mixed measures
Gas price2
$/MMBtuRetail headroom1
$/MWh
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan-02
Apr-02
Jul-02
Oct-02
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.0012-month forward gas price
Retail headroom
Although Margins In This Business Are Currently Negative Due To High Gas Prices …
31
10
(5)
3
27
… They Are Expected To Improve With The Approved Fuel Factor Adjustment And Should Continue To Expand Over The Long Term Based Upon The Current Gas Curve
Projected Headroom1
05E - 08E; $/MWh
1 Based on actual fuel factors through Oct-05 and $11.52/MMBtu for all future periods; assumes avg. customer usage of 16,000 kWh/yr.2 Actual prices through Oct-05, forward prices based upon NYMEX curve as of 10/31/05.
The combination of the adjusted fuel factor and backwardation of the curve allow headroom and net margins to recover to reasonable levels
The combination of the adjusted fuel factor and backwardation of the curve allow headroom and net margins to recover to reasonable levels
$9.71$8.95Gas price2
06E - 08E05E
Gross margin
Net margin
32
With an average customer life of three years and competitive discounts of at least 5 –10%, headroom of over $20/MWh is needed for attackers to achieve positive economicsWith an average customer life of three years and competitive discounts of at least 5 –
10%, headroom of over $20/MWh is needed for attackers to achieve positive economics
9
21
NA
7%
177$30
NA12$25
NA53$20
10%5%
9
10
2
2
10
25
Attacker Gross And Net Margins With 7% Discount And Headroom Of $25/MWh1,2
07E; $/MWh
North Texas headroom
Com-petitordiscount
Acquisition cost
Attacker gross margin
Net margin
Breakeven Payback For New Customer07E; Months1,2
Attacker discount; %
Head-room
($/MWh)
Reasonable payback
Long-Term Headroom Of Approximately $25/MWh Is Needed To Allow Competitors To Earn A Reasonable Risk Adjusted Return
Net margin
1 TXU Energy margins estimated using NYMEX 10/31/05 gas strip for calendar 06, average consumption of 16.0 MWh per year.2 Attacker economics based on above, with discounts from PTB as shown, acquisition costs of $105/customer amortized over 36 months, marginal SG&A of $3/MWh, and bad debt of 1.3%.
33
The UK Experience Supports $20 - $30/MWh Headroom And Resilient Market Shares
$26 $25 $24 $26
01 02 03 04
UK Retail Energy Gross Margins1
01 - 04; $/MWh
Incumbent Native Market Shares 01 - 04; Percent
On an equivalent basis to ERCOT, UK residential incumbents achieved gross margins averaging approximately $25/MWh from 01 to 04Six years after market open, UK incumbents continue to hold the majority of their legacy customers, while acquiring new customers in other areas
On an equivalent basis to ERCOT, UK residential incumbents achieved gross margins averaging approximately $25/MWh from 01 to 04Six years after market open, UK incumbents continue to hold the majority of their legacy customers, while acquiring new customers in other areas
1 Gross margins for combined electricity and gas customers (all major competitors offer both energy types and may discount either or both). Margins reported by Datamonitor and adjusted for definitional differences between UK and TXU reporting. 01- 04 average FX of $1.60/£ assumed for all years.
Source: Datamonitor, PA Consulting, TXU Energy analysis
69% 64% 62% 61%
01 02 03 04
34
FPL
TXU Electric Delivery Has An Advantaged Structural Position…Size: Large Customer Base04; Millions of customers
Scope: Large Infrastructure04; Thousands of miles of primary distribution lines
Demand: High Growth05E-14E; Percent annual growth
TXU
FRCCWECC
ERCOTMRO
MAACSERC
MAINSPP
ECARNPCC
2.82.4
2.0 1.91.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6
1.3
10587 87
69 69 65 59 54
TXU
5.3 5.2
4.2 4.2
3.1 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.2
Source: FERC
PCG EXC PGN ETR D DUKEDSO
Source: NERC
Source: Proprietary benchmarking study
146
Supportive Regulatory Environment
63
TXU Electric Delivery is a scale player in a high-growth regionTXU Electric Delivery is a scale player in a high-growth region
OutstandingAbove AverageAverageBelow AverageSource: Banc of America Securities Research
35
…And A Unique Business Model That Makes It Look More Like A FERC Transmission Or Pipeline System Than A Traditional Utility
Traditional T&D comparables
Gas LDC’s Pipeline MLP’s
FERC TransCo
TXU Electric Delivery
Regulation
Capital tracker
Commodity risk
Retail customers
State State FERC FERC State
No No No Yes Yes1
Yes Yes No No No
Yes Yes No No No
TXU Electric Delivery has higher growth and more progressive investment recovery mechanisms than typical regulated transmission and distribution peer companies
TXU Electric Delivery has higher growth and more progressive investment recovery mechanisms than typical regulated transmission and distribution peer companies
1 For transmission and automated meter reading investments
36
Based On Core Beliefs About Value Creation, TXU Electric Delivery Has Designed A Bottom-Up Business Unit Strategy
TXU Electric Delivery
Continue To Redefine Excellence In Texas
Consolidate Regional T&D ToExtract Synergies
Focus on distinctive asset management: optimize reliability and costs
Take advantage of high growth market and advantaged business model to invest in needed infrastructure
Scale TXU’s distinctive asset management capabilities over a larger grid
Take a national role in technology through leading technology consortium and third party infrastructure fund
TXU will continue to drive distinctive performance in Texas while attempting to scale its operating edge regionally
TXU will continue to drive distinctive performance in Texas while attempting to scale its operating edge regionally
Integrate BPL and AMR into grid to help redefine service quality
37
$0$22
$44$66
$88$110$132
$154$176
$198$220
026
5278
104130156
182208
234260
TXU Electric Delivery Has Achieved Top Quartile Reliability While Simultaneously Maintaining Top Quartile Costs
1st Quartile2nd Quartile
3rd Quartile4th Quartile
Non-Storm SAIDI1 (n=33)04; Minutes
71.3 87.5 145.1 183.0
Significant capital investments are planned to ensure consistent top quartile reliability, while rigorous focus on cost efficiency will result in top decile cost performance by 08
Significant capital investments are planned to ensure consistent top quartile reliability, while rigorous focus on cost efficiency will result in top decile cost performance by 08
1 TXU Electric Delivery is evaluating adoption of the IEEE 1366 standard for reporting reliability performance. Projected 2008 non-storm SAIDI calculated under this method would be 74.59.2. 2 Benchmark includes specific O&M accounts as well as maintenance capital.
O&M Costs2 Per Customer (n=33)04; $/customer
85.8 112.0 128.0 139.6
1st Quartile2nd Quartile
3rd Quartile4th Quartile
0508
03
0508
03
38
7.3
2.2
0.1
9.6
Based On A Rapidly Growing Market, And The Importance Of KeepingThe Lights On, TXU Electric Delivery Is Investing In Needed Infrastructure Upgrades
243 300 350 425 425 450
300300
375 325 350 350
75 7525
75
03 04 05E 06E 07E 08E
543600
750825 850 875
North Texas Economic Cost Of One Minute of downtime1
05: $ millions
Residential Commercial Industrial Total
TXU Electric Delivery Capex Budget03-08; $ millions
1 Outage cost/Customer also influenced by time of the day, season, region and duration of outage.Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study, 2004
Transmission
Distribution
Automated meters
• TXU Electric Delivery’s capital and technology deployment strategy is designed to lower grid congestion, and increase system reliability
• About 50% of TXU Electric Delivery’s capital is eligible for expedited recovery
• TXU Electric Delivery’s capital and technology deployment strategy is designed to lower grid congestion, and increase system reliability
• About 50% of TXU Electric Delivery’s capital is eligible for expedited recovery
39
Today The ERCOT Grid Remains Fragmented . . .
Source: Energy Velocity
All Too Small: Share Of Gross Transmission And Distribution PPE04; Percent
AEP12%
PNM3%
CNP22%
TXU38%
Publics and Co-ops
25%
100% = $25 billion
Nearly 40 public power companies and co-ops comprise 25% of the ERCOT market
Nearly 40 public power companies and co-ops comprise 25% of the ERCOT market
40
350
475
Weighted Avg Rest ofERCOT
TXU
…Offering An Opportunity Through Improvements In Efficiency And Reliability
Source: Texas Public Utilities Commission, FERC Form 1
Relative Cost PositionSAIDI04; Minutes
75
100
Weighted Avg Restof ERCOT
TXU
Relative Reliability Position
Total Cash Cost Per Customer04; $/customer
Driving the market to TXU performance levels implies potential annual savings of
over $550 million
Driving the market to TXU performance levels implies potential annual savings of
over $550 million
26%26% 25%25%
Reducing SAIDI by 25 minutes could save the Texas economy
over $425 million annually
Reducing SAIDI by 25 minutes could save the Texas economy
over $425 million annually
41
TXU Has Implemented A Process To Help Each Business Achieve Their Strategic Aspirations
Transaction
1st4th 2nd 4th 1st3rd 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
2006 2008 2007
Electric Delivery
• Technology consortium• Infrastructure fund• 1st Delivery transaction
TXU Power
• Sandow 5 online• Oak Grove online• 1st Power transaction
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
2009
42
Today’s Agenda
Financial PrinciplesFinancial Principles
TXU TodayTXU Today• The TXU Turnaround • Core Strategic Principles
Business Unit Strategies
Business Unit Strategies
• TXU Power • TXU Retail/Wholesale• TXU Electric Delivery
Risk/Market OutlookRisk/Market Outlook• Natural Gas• Heat Rate• Capital Allocation Principles
• Financial Outlook And Growth• Financial Sensitivities• Long-Term Sources And Uses Of Cash
43
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
06 07 08 09 10
TXU Believes The Fundamentals Support Backwardation In The Natural Gas Curve…
Natural Gas Price Forecasts06E-10E; $/MMBtu
NYMEX
PIRA
US And Canada Gas Supply And Demand (12 Bcfd LNG addition)10E; $/MMBtu
Cumulative CapacityBcfd
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
2010 demand
Price range=$5.50-$7.00
While the gas curve is backwardated,fundamentals still support historically high prices
While the gas curve is backwardated,fundamentals still support historically high prices
44
0.0
9.9
8.10.40.10.11.0
7.7
…And Significant Heat Rate Recovery Over The Next Ten Years
ERCOT Market 7X24 Heat Rates (NYMEX)06E-10E; MMBtu/MWh
2006 heat rate
Unmothballingof gas peakers
2010 heat rate
Baseload capacity additions
Long-term heat rate to support
CCGT new build1
Demand growth
Demand destruction
Wind generation increases
Details • 2% yearly demand growth
• 1.7 GW per year
• 1.1 GW of destruction
• 1.8 GW • 2.4 GW • Sandow 5 (0.6 GW)
• Oak Grove (1.7 GW)
• S.A. Power (0.8 GW)
The growth in ERCOT supports limited baseload expansionThe growth in ERCOT supports limited baseload expansion
2010 Henwoodestimate = 9.1
1 Based on $5.00 gas prices.
Equivalent to an 8.5 HSC heat rate
45
Over The Next Three Years TXU Will Remain Relatively Neutral To Natural Gas And Become Longer Heat Rate
~50-60~40-50~30-40Expected underlying position
87-89%89%91-98%Percentage hedged
(100)
(300)
460-
46008E
(80)
(330)
460-
46007E
-Gas plants
(50)PPAs/Tolls/Other forward power and gas sales
(380)Retail “short”position1
470Total “native long”position
47006E
Current baseload production
TXU has locked in ~ 90% of its natural gas exposure and is maintaining the majority of its long-term heat rate exposure
TXU has locked in ~ 90% of its natural gas exposure and is maintaining the majority of its long-term heat rate exposure
Well Controlled: Natural Gas Position06E-08E; Million MMBtu
Growth Potential: Heat Rate Position06E-08E; Million MWh
~32~27~13Expected underlying position
53%59%80%Percentage hedged
2
(38)
686
6208E
3
(42)
665
6107E
5Gas plants
(3)PPAs/Tolls/Other forward power and gas sales
(50)Retail “short”position1
66Total “native long”position
6106E
Current baseload production
1 Assumes retail price remains constant
46
TXU’s EBITDA Is Expected To Remain Relatively Insensitive To NaturalGas Price Changes And Heat Rate Changes
<1.5%
<1.0%<1.0%
06E 07E 08E
EBITDA Impact Of $1/MMBtu change in natural gas06E-08E; Percent
EBITDA Impact of 0.2 MMBtu/MWhchange in market heat rate1
06E-08E; Percent
Change in EBITDA$ millions
~30-40 ~40-50 ~50-60 ~30 ~50 ~55
Over the next three years, TXU has a small sensitivity to natural gas price and heat rate changes due to the benefits of market hedges and its integrated
portfolio
Over the next three years, TXU has a small sensitivity to natural gas price and heat rate changes due to the benefits of market hedges and its integrated
portfolio
1 Based on 06 natural gas price = $11.00, 07 natural gas price = $9.65, 08 natural gas price = $8.49.
<1.5%
<1.0%<1.0%
06E 07E 08E
47
Excess
Yes
Payout 30-40% of operational earnings
Payout 30-40% of operational earnings
ExcessDividendPayout
EquityHolders
Cash FlowfromOper-ations
andAssetSalesTX
U B
usin
ess
Uni
ts “Customer”Capital
Yes
Quality serviceProduction reliability
Quality serviceProduction reliability
Repurchasesor Distributions
Retained forInvestment
Excess
TXU Also Manages Risk Through Its “Cash Scrubber”
The cash scrubber will govern the allocation of operating cash flow and the deployment of growth capital
The cash scrubber will govern the allocation of operating cash flow and the deployment of growth capital
Growth capital
Yes, if
PV/ Investment threshold of 1.325-35% cash returned <5 yrs
PV/ Investment threshold of 1.325-35% cash returned <5 yrs
DebtHolders
FinancialFlexibility
Yes, until in 06+
EBITDA/Interest: >5.0Debt/EBITDA: <2.5Debt/MEV: 30% to 50%
EBITDA/Interest: >5.0Debt/EBITDA: <2.5Debt/MEV: 30% to 50%
48
Today’s Agenda
Financial PrinciplesFinancial Principles
TXU TodayTXU Today• The TXU Turnaround • Core Strategic Principles
Business Unit Strategies
Business Unit Strategies
• TXU Power • TXU Retail/Wholesale• TXU Electric Delivery
Risk/Market OutlookRisk/Market Outlook• Natural Gas• Heat Rate• Capital Allocation Principles
• Financial Outlook And Growth• Financial Sensitivities• Long-Term Sources And Uses Of Cash
49
TXU Is Focused On Achieving Balanced Financial Performance
TXU’s ultimate financial objective is tosimultaneously improve all three economic dimensions
TXU’s ultimate financial objective is tosimultaneously improve all three economic dimensions
Increased Returns
Increased Financial Flexibility
Increased Earning Power
Increased Value
50
Execution Of TXU’s Strategy Results In A Robust Forward Plan For Consolidated TXU
Operating Cash Flow2
03-06E; $ billionsOperational EPS1
03-06E; $/shareFree Cash Flow3
03-06E; $ billions
EBITDA/Interest1
03-06E; RatioDebt4/EBITDA1
03-06E; Percent
135%135%
610%610%
60%60%
285%285%
03 04 05E 06E
1.9-2.0
3.1-3.2
4.25.1
03 04 05E 06E
7.0-7.24.9-
5.04.03.0
03 04 05E 06E
205%205%
1.00.7
03 04 05E 06E03 04 05E 06E
0.79 1.41
3.25-3.35
5.50-5.75
1.52.0
2.6-2.7
4.5-4.7
1 Results are from continuing operations excluding special items and are split adjusted.2 03 normalized operating cash flow (OCF) ($2.4B) excluding cash tax refund ($0.6B) and 02 collections; 04 normalized OCF ($1.8B) excluding special items (-$0.3B); 05 normalized OCF
excludes an estimated $125 million of special items.3 Normalized free cash flow is defined as normalized operating cash flow less capital expenditures and nuclear fuel.4 Debt excludes transition bonds.
EBITDA1
03-06E; $ billions
145%145%
03 04 05E 06E
2.3 2.7
3.8 -3.9
5.5 -5.7
1.7 -1.8
2.6 -2.8
51
06 Outlook Is Driven By A Combination Of Performance Improvements And Commodity Impacts…
Consolidated TXU Operational EPS (split adjusted)05E-06E; $/share
0.03 Reduction of interest expense
5.50 – 5.7506E operational earnings outlook range
(0.04)Mass market customer churn
0.13 O&M and SG&A cost improvements0.18 Improvement from hedge roll-off and expiration of
wholesale/LCI contracts
0.16Increased base load production1.75 Wholesale market prices
3.25-3.35 05E operational earnings outlook range
0.11 Change in diluted shares outstanding
06EPerformance driver
52
908886Coal capacity factor(Percent)
481606 residential churn (% of customers)
1311706 gas prices ($/MMBtu)
7.97.77.506 7X24 market heat rate (MMBtu/MWh)
96
Base
9792Nuclear capacity factor(Percent)
HighLowDescription
(0.19)
(0.04)
(0.03)
(0.09)
(0.09)
0.10
0.04
0.01
0.09
0.02
Low HighBase = 5.50-5.75
Impact On Consolidated TXU 06E EPS (split adjusted)06E; $/share
The Financial Plan Is Sensitive To A Number Of Variables…
The plan is resilient to most sensitivitiesThe plan is resilient to most sensitivities
53
…But Taken Together The Plan Is Resilient Under Downside Scenarios…
5.855.50-5.75 5.25
Consolidated TXU Operational EPS (split adjusted)06E; $/share
The combination of TXU’s integrated business model and estimated performance improvements drive earnings growth under all scenarios
The combination of TXU’s integrated business model and estimated performance improvements drive earnings growth under all scenarios
Gas price
Residential churn
Capacity factorCoalNuclear
$7.00
16%
86%92%
$11.00
8%
88%96%
$13.00
4%
90%97%
Low gas1/double churn Base Case High Gas/Half churn1
1 Assumes no change in PTB fuel factor relative to 10/28/05 approved increase
54
…Justifying A Rebased Common Dividend For Shareholders
160 280540
350
425
03 04 05E 06E
384%384%
The dividend is expected to grow at a high performance rateThe dividend is expected to grow at a high performance rate
~95% payout for Electric Delivery1
~18% payout for TXU Energy
775
1 Net income adjusted to exclude $32 million of transition bond amortization post tax expense.
29% payout for TXU Corp
Continued Growth: TXU Dividend03-06E; $ millions
55
Based On The Following Sources And Uses Of Capital…
Through execution of the industrial mindset, TXU will generate over $7 billion of discretionary FCF to grow the business or return to shareholders
Through execution of the industrial mindset, TXU will generate over $7 billion of discretionary FCF to grow the business or return to shareholders
20.0
2.0
06E-10E
21 - 23
Core portfolio capex
Cash for investment/distribution
OCF
Sources Of Cash 06E-10E (indicative); $ billions
6.5
2.5
4.0
2.0
7.0
06E-10E
Uses Of Cash 06E-10E (indicative); $ billions
Sandow & Oak Grove
Dividends
TXU Corp./Energy LLC debt
TXU Electric Delivery debt
21 - 23
56
…TXU’s Strategy Will Result In Solid Long-Term Earnings Growth Even Without The Benefit Of External Transactions…
3.735.3106 EPS less commodity impacts and retail churn
0.250.06Electric Delivery growth
0.570.26Performance improvements0.00(0.15)CP steam generator replacement
Capital allocation
Organic growth
Execution
Commodity
6.10-6.405.60-5.90 EOY EPS
5.50-5.75 5.50-5.7506 EPS
0.790.27Debt repurchases and share repurchases1.170.06Organic growth subtotal
2.7%
0.720.200.57
(1.90)
06E-10E
2.2%
0.000.000.11
(0.32)
06E-07E
Annual growth rate (percent)
Commodity impacts and retail churn
SandowOak Grove
Execution sub-total
Performance Driver
The combination of superior execution, organic growth, and capital allocation more than fills the gap caused by commodity backwardation
The combination of superior execution, organic growth, and capital allocation more than fills the gap caused by commodity backwardation
TXU Consolidated EPS (Split Adjusted06E-07E and 06E-10E; $ millions
57
…With Even Greater Growth If Able To Successfully Execute Value Creating Transactions
Breakout Investments: TXU Operational EPS (split adjusted)06E-10E; $/share
5.313.73
0.571.17
0.790.635.50-5.75
0.120.06 0.27
06E 07E 10E
06 EPS – commodity impacts - churn1
ExecutionOrganic growth
5.60-5.90
6.75-7.05
Transaction growth2
The combination of strong free cash flow, performance improvements and value creating intrinsic growth overcomes a backwardated commodity curve to provide solid
earnings growth
The combination of strong free cash flow, performance improvements and value creating intrinsic growth overcomes a backwardated commodity curve to provide solid
earnings growth
1 Includes impact of gas price declines, heat rate recovery, and churn2 Based on investing $7 billion over 5 years in underperforming coal plants with a PV/I=1.3 ($1,350 of new EBITDA)
CAGR5.0%
CAGR5.0%
Capital allocation
58
TXU: A Strong Core Business Poised For Growth
1. Rebased 06 earnings (split adjusted) of $5.50-5.75/ share
2. Highly competitive dividend and distributions3. Industry leading free cash flow of ~$3 billion4. Industry leading financial flexibility with over
7 X interest coverage5. A ~90% hedged natural gas position with
exposure to ERCOT heat rate recovery
1. Operations excellence – top decile coal reliability and targeting top quartile costs
2. Restructuring prowess – Generated over $10 billion through restructuring an underperforming portfolio
3. Performance management culture – driving year over year real productivity gains of more than 5%
…With Access To…
1. ~ $400 million of annual EBITDA performance improvements between 2006 and 2010
2. ~850 million of annual EBITDA line of sight organic growth by 2010
3. 5 year EPS growth of 2.5-3.0%
1. A $50 billion opportunity to improve the US merchant coal fleet
2. A $50 billion opportunity in US new build generation over the next 20 years
3. A $50 billion opportunity in US power company restructuring
4. 5-year EPS growth of 5% with successful execution of transactions
A Superior Economic Engine… …Driven By An Industrial Skill Set…
…Significant Organic Growth That Overcomes Commodity Declines…
…And Significant Transactional Growth Potential
Regulation G Reconciliations
For future periods, TXU is currently unable to estimate the impact of special items or changes in accounting principles or policies on free cash flow, return on invested capital, total debt to capitalization or interest coverage. TXU is therefore currently unable to reconcile the most directly comparable GAAP measures to these items for forecasted periods.
60
Financial Definitions
Operating revenues (GAAP) less fuel and purchased power costs and delivery fees (GAAP).Contribution Margin
Cash provided by operating activities adjusted for unusual or nonrecurring items. Used by TXU predominantly as a forecasting tool to estimate cash available for capital expenditures, nuclear fuel, dividends, debt reduction and other investments.
Normalized Operating Cash Flow(non-GAAP)
Cash from operating activities, adjusted for unusual or nonrecurring items, less capital expenditures and nuclear fuel. Used by TXU predominantly as a forecasting tool to estimate cash available for dividends, debt reduction, and other investments.
Normalized Free Cash Flow (non-GAAP)
Shares of common stock outstanding multiplied by closing share price as of the balance sheet date. Measures the market value of a company’s equity at a point in time.
Market Capitalization (non-GAAP)
Total debt plus preference stock plus market capitalization less cash and restricted cash.Enterprise Value (non-GAAP)
EBITDA divided by cash interest expense is a measure used by TXU to assess credit quality.EBITDA/Interest (non-GAAP)
Income from continuing operations before interest income, interest expense and related charges, and income tax plus depreciation and amortization and special items. EBITDA is a measure used by TXU to assess performance.
EBITDA (non-GAAP)
Interest expense and related charges less amortization of discount and reacquired debt expense plus capitalized interest. Cash interest expense is a measure used by TXU to assess credit quality.
Cash Interest Expense(non-GAAP)
Capital expenditures.Capex
Per share (diluted) income from continuing operations net of preference stock dividends, excluding special items and the adjustment in 2005 for the dilution effect of the cost of the true-up payment on the 52.5 million share accelerated common stock repurchase and the adjustment in 2004 for the dilution effect of the convertible senior notes, the majority of which were repurchased in the fourth quarter. TXU relies on operational earnings for evaluation of performance and believes that analysis of the business by external users is enhanced by visibility to both reported GAAP earnings and operational earnings.
Operational Earnings per Share(non-GAAP)
DefinitionMeasure
61
Financial Definitions – cont.
Total debt less transition bonds divided by total enterprise value is used by TXU to assess credit quality.Debt/Total Enterprise Value (non-GAAP)
Total debt less transition bonds and debt-related restricted cash divided by EBITDA. Transition, or securitization, bonds are serviced by a regulatory transition charge on wires rates and are therefore excluded from debt in credit reviews. Debt-related restricted cash is treated as net debt in credit reviews. Debt/EBITDA is a measure used by TXU to access credit quality.
Debt/EBITDA (non-GAAP)
Long-term debt (including current portion), plus bank loans and commercial paper, plus long-term debt held by subsidiary trusts, plus preferred securities of subsidiaries, including exchangeable preferred membership interests (EPMIs).
Total Debt (GAAP)
Operational earnings (non-GAAP) plus preference stock dividends plus after-tax interest expense and related charges, net of interest income on restricted cash related to debt, divided by the average of the beginning and ending total capitalization less debt-related restricted cash. This measure is used to evaluate operational performance and management effectiveness.
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) (non-GAAP)
Unusual charges related to the implementation of the performance improvement program and other charges, credits or gains, that are unusual or nonrecurring. Special items are included in reported GAAP earnings, but are excluded from operational earnings. Special items associated with the performance improvement program include debt extinguishment losses and costs related to severance programs, asset impairments and facility closures.
Special Items
DefinitionMeasure
62
Table 1: TXU Corp. Operational Earnings Reconciliation Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2004 and 2003 $/share after tax
1.582.82Operational earnings-2.58Special items
0.010.04Effect of diluted shares calculation(0.06)(0.07)Preference stock dividends
1.630.27Income from continuing operations 0.060.07Preference stock dividends
-2.83Premium on EPMIs0.15(0.03)Cum. effect of changes in accounting principles
-(0.05)Extraordinary gain(0.20)(1.26)Discontinued operations
1.62(1.29)Net income (loss) to common 0304
63
Table 2: TXU Corp. Normalized Operating Cash Flow, Normalized Free Cash Flow and Normalized Free Cash Flow Yield Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2004 and 2003 $ millions, unless otherwise noted
710(44)
(721)
1,475
(337)(601)
-2,413
03
1,043Normalized free cash flow(87)Nuclear fuel
(912)Capital expenditures
2,042Normalized operating cash flow
-2002 collections in 2003-2003 tax refund
284Special items 1,758Reported cash provided by operating activities
Ref04
64
Table 3: TXU Corp. Interest and Debt Coverage RatiosTwelve Months Ended December 31, 2004 and 2003 $ millions, unless otherwise noted
25242Income tax expense
B(1,847)(1,677)Reconciling adjustments from cash flow statement
A2,4131,758Cash provided by operating activities
56681Income from continuing operations
2,2901,550EBITDA
3.04.0EBITDA/interest – ratio (C/D)
5.14.2Debt/EBITDA – ratio (F/C)
4.23.6Cash provided by operating activities + cash interest expense/cash interest expense – ratio (A+D/D)
5.27.3Total debt/cash provided by operating activities – ratio (E/A)
E12,59112,889Total debt
784695Interest expense and related charges
F11,56611,631Total debt less transition bonds and debt-related restricted cash
(525)-Debt-related restricted cash
724760Depreciation and amortization
(500)
765
12
(31)
2,290
-
(36)
784
03
(1,258)
680
12
(27)
2,740
1,190
(28)
695
04
Transition bonds
DCash interest expense
Capitalized interest
Amortization of discount and reacquired debt expense
CEBITDA (excluding special items)
Special Items
Interest income
Interest expense and related charges
Ref
65
2003 RefDebt
Notes payable - Long-term debt due currently 678 Long-term debt held by subsidiary trusts 546 Other long-term debt less due current 10,608 Transition bonds (500) APreferred securities of subsidiaries 759
Total debt less transition bonds 12,091 BPreference stock 300 Total debt and preference stock 12,391 CMarket capitalization
Shares outstanding 324 Price per share 23.72
Total market capitalization 7,685
Cash and restricted cash (1,423)
Enterprise Value 18,653 D
Debt to enterprise value - % (B/D) 64.8
Common equity (GAAP) 5,619 ETotal Capital (C-A+E) (GAAP) 18,510 FDebt/Total Capital -% (B-A)/F 68.0
Table 4: TXU Corp. Total Debt to Enterprise Value Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2003 $ millions, unless otherwise noted