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Darn that internet!

James Enck

February 2007

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Who am I and why am I here?

European Telecom

Analyst/Global Telecom

Strategist (whatever that is). Author of EuroTelcoblog

and Chaotica blogs.

My avatar is considerably

thinner than me

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No longer your fathers internet

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The geeks have been hard at work

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How broad does broadband have to be?

What we have

What we want/need

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2006 study from Arthur D. Little came to the followingconclusions about European broadband in 2011:

? Not more than 10% of broadband households areexpected to exceed 30Mbps (downstream);

? Upload speed of 8Mbps will be sufficient;

? FTTH will mostly be relevant at a local/regionallevel, assuming it is able to offer more than superiorbandwidth.

Do you buy the slowly, slowly story?

UK satellite giant and broadband newcomer BSkyB said inlate 2006 that it assumes average bandwidth consumptiondoubles every five years.

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Not everybody is drinking the Kool-Aid

"There's an absolute risk of peopledropping basic video service forInternet video."

"Bandwidth consumption isdefinitely increasing, and theaverage consumption rate isdefinitely increasing. It's definitelya real problem; there's definitely astorm coming."

- regional cable operator

"Prepare your networks for theprimetime on-demand wave."

- Motorola executive

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Ouch, my creaking pipes!

Source: PlusNet

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Evil BitTorrent

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

Dec-04Jan

-05

Feb-0

5

Mar-05

Apr-0

5

May-05Jun-0

5Jul-0

5

Aug-05

Sep-0

5

Oct-0

5

Nov-0

5

Dec-05Jan

-06

Feb-0

6

Mar-06

Apr-0

6

May-06Jun-0

6Jul-0

6

Aug-06

Sep-0

6

Weekly total

Monthly run rate

Weekly and normalized monthly download figures, top ten global video titles

Source: Daiwa, from p2pnet.net and BigChampagne data

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Nice, cuddly BitTorrent

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BitTorrent on HD steroids

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Even Auntie likes P2P

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A bundle of pain?

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Dont look now

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Changing allegiances

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Massive online storage and virtualization

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Massive local storage, place-shifted

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Your viral badge of choice

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Persistent virtual worlds: Its no game

slfuturesalon.blogs.com

Business Week

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The quick, and the dead

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When the internet just doesnt hack it

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and the potential rewards of getting it right.

Its time now to consider the implications of once againunderestimating and underprovisioning...

The most disruptive force in telecom is your customersand their ability to spread applications virally and

unpredictably.

The industry has consistently under-forecasted market scale (mobilepenetration, broadband penetration) and not foreseen the rise ofpotent new applications (SMS, email, Skype, video on the net).

Conclusions

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Thanks for listening!