1. Whats New emsiat Bringing LMI, Hires, and Job Postings Together

2. WHAT WELL COVER: Introduction Hires & Job Churn Job Postings Scenario Summary 3. GOALS - Provide the background and philosophy - Review the data - Help you walk away with an understanding of the behind the scenes WHY and HOW of our data process. - Prep you for looking at the data release on July 10 4. INTRODUCTION - Since 2000 working with structural LMI Collected and published by gvt agencies - Data to help understand nature of people, economies and work - Strategic, long-term, big picture analysis - New need to help drill down into more tactical decisions (Job posting data or real- time LMI) 5. 2014 TOTAL NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT 6. 2-DIGIT INDUSTRIES 7. INTRODUCTION Measuring the economy in real time is hard. Ignoring the jobs report is foolish, but overreacting is equally foolish. -Matt Yglesias, nnn 8. INTRODUCTION On Canadas misuse of job postings data: With these sites removed from the source data, the governments latest labour market report points to a job vacancy rate of 1.5%, which is dramatically less than the 4% vacancy rate Finance Canada warned of on budget day. 9. INTRODUCTION Big Data We sometimes throw caution to the wind Huge pressure to understand demand We need to know: Where does it come from? What can it tell us? How should we use it / interpret it? 10. INTRODUCTION Basic Rules Data is a toolwe need to use it properly Data, like any tool, has limits Data is exciting because it illuminates things we have never been able to look at before: MICROSCOPE Data must talk to other data. Cannot be an island. 11. The New Guys Job Postings Analytics (JPA) Hires Separations Job Churn 12. The New Guys Job Postings Analytics (JPA) Hires Separations Job Churn 13. JOB POSTING ANALYTICS Analyzing job ads has gotten a lot of press lately. Weve looked into it, found some good things to pull out, and brought you the cream of the crop. 14. HIRES, JOB POSTINGS, AND JOB GROWTH FOR AN AVERAGE MONTH (Based on data from 2013 and 2014) 15. HIRES, JOB POSTINGS, AND JOB GROWTH FOR AN AVERAGE MONTH (Based on data from 2013 and 2014) 16. HIRES & JOB CHURNSeparations Separations account for workers leaving a business for any reason: Quitting, layoffs, firing, retiring -It wont be in the upcoming Analyst release Where to put it How to use it We know its helpful and want to present it correctly 17. HIRES & JOB CHURN Hires helps us bridge the gap between structural LMI and JPA. A hire is counted whenever someone shows up on a companys payroll when they didnt show up in the previous quarter. A hire is a hire. 18. HIRES & JOB CHURNHires vs. Annual Openings: They both measure demand however Annual Openings is a modeled number, based off of national projections Hires is informed by Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI), an actual headcount of hirings that have taken place 19. HIRES & JOB CHURN Hires & Separations Sources: JOLTS + Timely - Less accurate QWI -Slower + More accurate 20. HIRES & JOB CHURNChurn Churn (hires and separations) is the bridge between Job Postings and traditional LMI, and why we spent so much time finding a good source for it in QWI. 21. JPA-CHURN-LMI Not three separate things. 22. JOB POSTINGS What are Job Postings good for? 23. JOB POSTINGS What are Job Postings good for? -Whos hiring? Company-specific info 24. JOB POSTINGS What are Job Postings good for? -Whos hiring? Company-specific info -What positions are they looking for? Detailed job titles 25. JOB POSTINGS What are Job Postings good for? -Whos hiring? Company-specific info -What positions are they looking for? Detailed job titles -What skills do those people need? Skills data 26. JOB POSTINGS What are Job Postings good for? -Whos hiring? Company-specific info -What positions are they looking for? Detailed job titles -What skills do those people need? Skills data -How badly do they want to hire? Posting Intensity 27. JOB POSTINGS Posting Intensity Lets say a trucking company needed to hire 15 drivers They start off posting the jobs on their site, but dont get them filled A recruiter advises them to put postings on the local WIB site, community boards, CareerBuilder.com, Monster.com, and Indeed.com Depending on how you counted them, all of a sudden it looks like there are 1,000 open truck driver jobs The number of total postings put out compared to the number of unique postings meant that trucking company really, really wanted to find people for those jobs 28. JOB POSTINGS Limitations of Job Postings: Voluntary Jobs are posted at the will of individual companies, no standardization on descriptions or timeframes Some sectors see steady hiring with NO job postings High-tech, computer related occupations usually have many more postings than available jobs 29. JOB POSTINGS Limitations of Job Postings: A posting doesnt always equal a job A posted job isnt necessarily a hire waiting to happen Postings are collected and sorted automatically, so reliability is somewhat dependent on the spidering technology used Even when the technology is great, under and overrepresentation of different sectors will still produce inaccurate numbers 30. JOB POSTINGS Whats EMSI doing about it? Measuring the economy in real time is hard. Ignoring the jobs report is foolish, but overreacting is equally foolish. -Matt Yglesias, nnn 31. JOB POSTINGS Whats EMSI doing about it? Providing the context EMSIs job postings are presented alongside our trusted LMI data, with our new hires figures. Remember that these are actual jobs that have been counted through mandatory government collection. LMI helps reality check job postings figures 32. JOB POSTINGS EMSIs Job Postings Come From: CareerBuilders job postings database Scraping the web for individual postings Third-party aggregators 33. JOB POSTINGS Job Postings Per Month: About 2.8 Million After de-duplication 34. JOB POSTINGS Job Posting De-duplication By City By O*NET (job description) By Company If we find multiple postings for the same job title, in the same city, for the same company, we reduce all of those postings to 1 posting 35. SCENARIO Software Developers 465,000 in the Top 50 MSAs 14% increase since 2010, 24% since 2004 Found mostly in large metros NYC Seattle D.C. San Jose 36. Software Developers 37. SCENARIO Welders 133,000 welders across the top 50 MSAs 9.7% growth since 2010 38. Welders 39. SUMMARY Hires, Separations & Job Churn Better measure of job demand Helps JPs better inform LMI EMSI data, new sources from QWI Churn is the lens that brings JPs into focus with LMI JPA Good for finding whos hiring, what skills/positions they want, and how badly they want to hire Need context to be helpful, which were providing in Analyst Comes from CareerBuilder, web scraping, and other aggregators 40. QUESTIONS? Matt Gaither mgaither@economicmodeling.com