Employment Trends to 2008 Oct ‚00 Sep ‚00 Oct ‚99 · Unemployment Rate Labor Force Employment...

Employment Trends to 2008

By Lynn D. Gray OESC Economist Every two years the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the various state employment agencies prepare and publish ten-year employment projections. The most recent release of these projections covers the period from 1998 to 2008. Looking at these projections and at past actual numbers on occasion can yield some insight into what major changes have taken place in the economy and what new ones are on the horizon.

Recently I have been asked to make a number of presentations to various groups about the current long-term employment projections and specifically about the major trends they forecast. Given that these presentations have been well received and the information contained in them appears to be of value to many people it seemed appropriate to publish them before a wider audience. Four significant trends or changes can be seen (or at least the effects of the trends can be seen) in the current long-term projections. Three are continuing to change, meaning we have seen them and are aware of them in varying degrees. The fourth is one which although we have known for some time was coming we are just now encountering the effects of it in our ten year projections. They are identified and described below. (Continued on the next Page)

Economic Research and Analysis Division November 2000

Oklahoma Oct �00 Sep �00 Oct �99 Labor Force 1,667,100 1,657,300 1,668,880 Employment 1,616,400 1,609,200 1,616,380 Unemployment 50,700 48,100 52,500 Rate 3.0% 2.9% 3.1% MSA Unemp Oct �00 Sep �00 Oct �99 Oklahoma City 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% Tulsa 2.9% 2.8% 3.2% Manufacturing Oct �00 Sep �00 Oct �99 Avg. Weekly Wages $556.56 $558.14 $540.97 Avg. Hourly Wages $13.22 $13.58 $12.61 Avg. Hours Worked 42.1 41.1 42.9 Consumer Price Index (CPI) % Change Oct �00 Month Year US 174.0 0.2% 3.4% Local Office Statistics Oct �00 Oct �99 Total Benefits Paid $9,832,910 $9,304,293 Average Benefit Amount $209.47 $206.87 Job Openings Received (YTD) 26,043 30,378 App. Regist. for Work (YTD) 127,913 139,706 # of Individuals Placed (YTD) 10,491 14,126 Applicant Opening Ratio (YTD) 4.9 4.6

Employers # of Employer Total (1st Qtr 2000) Units Employment Statewide 88,375 1,424,983 OKC MSA 28,240 519,014 Tulsa MSA 21,200 381,814

Feature Article 2 Statewide 5 Oklahoma City MSA 7 Tulsa MSA 8 Lawton MSA 9 Enid MSA 9 Labor Force Statistics 10 At A Glance 11

Economic Indicators

Feature Article

In This Issue�

Sector Shift: A Good�s Producing Economy to a Service Producing Economy

During the 19th century the United States began a transformation from an economy based on agriculture to one based upon the production of goods. It is known as The Industrial Revolution. Today we are caught up in nothing less dramatic as our economy shifts from that of a same good�s producing basis to a service-producing base. Before we look at the current projections and implications of this movement lets do a very quick review of why this is taking place.

The first major change was the Industrial Revolution as well as the current variations that have been brought about by increases in agriculture production (in the 19th century) and in manufacturing today. A century ago these productivity increases allowed fewer farmers to produce greater amounts of product. Thus a surplus of farm labor developed which lead unemployed farmers to work in the new and expanding industries of manufacturing. The new industries produced great quantities of goods, which were not available before when a much larger portion of the labor force was without option and committed to farming. These new products dramatically increased the living standard of all Americans over time.

In our time a very similar process has been taking place for several years and it is projected to continue. As industrial productivity increases (the current shift also is effected by the next trend) a surplus of workers is created in industrial production therefore they are reemployed in a new sector. This sector is the production of services and just like our great grandparents we are seeing an increase in our standard of living because of it.

An example of the magnitude of this change over the next ten years the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates that in the U.S. the number of manufacturing jobs will decline by about 89,000. Over this same time frame the number of service producing jobs are expected to surge by some 19 million jobs. These service sector jobs are expected to develop in such sub-fields as healthcare, business service, and childcare.

Globalization

The second major change that has surfaced over the past few years and can expect to see more of is globalization. By this we mean the increase of the United States� role in international trade over time. The impact over the past decade from free trade zones and trade talks to reduce tariffs can be seen in recent developments in employment and in our long-term projections.

Globalization will cause increases in employment for the U.S. in those industries in which we have a comparative advantage over other nations. Examples of these include such industries as the manufacture of some durable goods (Yes, above we did say that in total manufacturing is in decline, but that is mostly concentrated in the production of non-durable goods) including industrial machinery, electronic products, and transportation equipment. These three industries have seen a substantial increases in employment since 1993 (NAFTA).

On the other hand globalization will result in decreased employment in those sectors in which the U.S. does not have a comparative advantage. One of the best examples of this is the apparel and textile

2 Economic Research and Analysis Division, November 2000 Feature Article

industries, which have and are expected to continue to fall in employment. In Oklahoma the occupation of garment sewing machine operator is projected to be the fastest shrinking job losing nearly 60% of its 1998 jobs by 2008.

Immigration

Some demographers are calling the immigration flows of the 1980�s and 1990�s to the U.S. �another Great Migration�. The first Great Migration occurred in the opening years of the 20th century when millions of immigrants mostly from Europe crossed the Atlantic in search of a brighter future. Today we are seeing an overall larger number of immigrants flocking to the nation than a hundred years ago, which prompted the comparison above. In fact the numbers of total immigration (both legal and an estimate of illegal) has been so high that about one fourth of the total increase of the nations labor force over the past few years is attributed to it. This large flow of working immigrants has the potential of softening the expected shortage of younger workers over the next few decades, which offers much promise in regard to a continued American economic expansion just as the first Great Migration did.

However, there is at least one significant difference with the current group of immigrants then those a century ago. It is the fact that these new groups of Americans are very different than native-born Americans in regards to education level and skill sets. The last large wave of immigration brought men and women who in large part resembled native born Americans in these areas. Thus they often encountered anger and mistrust from native born

Americans who saw them as a very real threat to their jobs and wage levels.

The current groups of immigrants are not nearly as much like native-born Americans, as were there predecessors. First, they are much more likely to lack a high school education than is the average native born person. The skill set brought by these lower educated immigrants is very different than that of the average American, thus the jobs they seek are ones not often sought by native-born Americans. Secondly, and perhaps at first this will sound contradictory to the previous point, the current group of new arrivals are much more likely to have at least a masters degree than are native-born Americans. What we really have is not one large homogeneous group of new immigrants (like the first Great Migration) but two very differently educated and skilled groups coming over at the same time. The United States is attracting labor disproportionately from both extremes of the skill spectrum. Some examples of the current effects of this are as follows�

1. Wages for low skill labor intensive goods and services such as gardening, housecleaning, etc. have fallen in states with a high level of immigrants. A recent study has shown that in Texas prices for these types of services were 17% to 24% below the national average.

2. A study in 1999 found that the most

accomplished scientists living in America is disproportionately foreign born. Twenty-five percent of the founders of new biotech firms in the U.S. are immigrants and 60% of the most cited American based authors of academic physical science articles are immigrants.

Economic Research and Analysis Division, November 2000 3

Aging Workforce/Retiring Boomers

Above we noted that the younger age of the average immigrant to the U.S. was a substantial benefit to the nations economy. This is due to the fact that as a whole America is a graying workforce. Currently the average retirement age in America is about 62 or 63. We say �about� because there are a couple of ways to estimate the average, but they all fall fairly close to or within this tight range. In 2008, the projection year for the most recent edition of the BLS, estimates the first of the Baby Boomers will begin to reach this age and begin to retire in numbers. In addition many public sector positions allow retirement at ages beginning as low as 55. Boomers born in 1946 will reach that age this year.

Exactly what the effects will be of these mass retirements is hard to say. For instance two significant variables are how many of these retirees will simply exchange one job for another or how many will be forced to delay retirement due to financial reasons and thus alter the historic retirement age. A few experts in this field have put together a list of occupations which they feel will be affected the most by the upcoming mass retirements.

Some of these are (1) teachers, all levels from elementary to university professors, (2) mail carriers, (3) nurses, both licensed and practical, (4) secretaries, and (5) airline pilots. Note that these mentioned positions fall into at least one of three categories. The first are positions that require experience to enter and mandate early retirement (airline pilots), the second are the public sector positions with possible early retirement (teachers and mail carriers) and the third are positions historically filled disproportionately by women (teachers, nurses, and secretaries). Some research has found that woman retire at a faster pace than men. This would account for the projection of those positions dominated by women and why they will be greatly affected over the next few years.

In conclusion I hope this brief account will convince us that powerful forces have been and will continue to direct the general direction of the overall economy in general and of employment in particular. The more we as individuals are aware of these movements the better prepared we may be to take advantage of them and/or protect ourselves from them.

4 Economic Research and Analysis Division, November 2000

Feature Article

Unemployment Rate

Labor Force Employment Unemployment Oct �00 Sep �00 Oct �99 1,667,100 1,616,400 50,700 3.0% 2.9% 3.1%

Services and Government: Majority of Over the Month Gain

Total Nonfarm employment in Oklahoma grew to 1,504,300 in October, gaining 9,400 jobs (+0.6%). A total of 25,400 jobs (+1.7%) have been created since this time last year. The Goods Producing industries increased by 400 (-0.1%), while the Service Producing industries gained 9,000 jobs (+0.7%) in October.

Total Nonfarm(Over the Month Change)

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Mining rose by 100 (+0.4%) in October, following a two-month decline. Oil and Gas Extraction is responsible for this employment gain. Over the year, Mining is up 1.1 percent (+300 jobs). Construction recovered the 300 jobs lost in September by gaining 0.5 percent in October. Construction reported an over the year growth rate of 4.9 percent by creating 2,900 jobs over the past year. Manufacturing, as a whole, reported no movement for October. Durable Goods gained 200 (+0.2%), while Nondurable Goods lost 200 (-0.3%). Several manufacturing sectors reported minor movement over the month. Over the year this major industry division grew by 100 jobs (+0.1%). Transportation and Public Utilities lost 200 jobs (-0.2%) in October, following a decline the previous month. The decline in this industry can be attributed to drops found in both, the Transportation sector and Communications & Public Utilities sector. When compared with October 1999, this industry division lost 100 jobs (-0.1%).

Trade reported a gain of 900 (0.3%) over the month, following an employment decline in September. Wholesale Trade is responsible for this employment gain, while Retail Trade remained constant in October. A majority of the over the month gains in Wholesale Trade was found in Nondurable Goods. Retail Trade reported a rather significant loss of employment in Eating & Drinking Places. Employment gains were located in General Merchandise, Food, Apparel & Accessory, Furniture, and Miscellaneous Retail Stores. Since October 1999, Total Trade added 4,300 jobs (+1.3%). Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate gained 200 jobs (+0.3%) in October, following a decline in September. Depository Institutions reported an over the month drop, while Insurance Carriers posted meager gains. Over the year, this major industry division grew 2.3 percent (+1,700 jobs). Services reported fairly large over the month gains by adding 2,000 (+0.5%) in October. Employment gains appeared up in Health, Business, Social, and Personal Services. Hotels & Other Lodging Places, Motion Pictures, and Engineering & Management Services declined in October. Over the year, this industry division gained 11,300 jobs (+2.7%). Government posted a rather large employment gains in October. State Government rose by 2,400 jobs (+2.9%), while Local Government increased by 3,700 jobs (+2.3%) over the month. The employment increase in both, State and Local Government is due to normal seasonal education gains. Federal Government has held steady for the month. Since October 1999, Total Government has reported an employment gain of 4,900 jobs (+1.7%).


HOURS AND EARNINGS

Industry Avg Weekly

Hours Avg Hourly Earnings

Oct 2000

Sep 2000

Oct 1999

Oct 2000

Sep 2000

Oct 1999

Manufacturing 42.1 41.1 42.9 13.22 13.58 12.61

Durable Goods 42.5 42.8 43.1 13.84 14.06 13.02

Non-Durable Goods

41.2 37.8 42.7 12.05 12.60 11.87

State of Oklahoma

Statewide NonFarm Payroll Employment

Number

INDUSTRY Oct Sep Oct 2000 2000 1999

TOTAL NONFARM 1,504,300 1,494,900 1,478,900GOODS PRODUCING 273,800 273,400 270,500MINING 27,700 27,600 27,400

Oil & Gas Extraction 25,500 25,400 25,200CONSTRUCTION 62,300 62,000 59,400MANUFACTURING 183,800 183,800 183,700DURABLE GOODS 118,500 118,300 118,100

Lumber & Wood Products 4,700 4,700 4,700Stone, Clay, Glass 8,900 8,900 9,100Primary Metal Industries 5,100 5,000 4,800Fabricated Metal 23,300 23,100 23,000

Fabr Struct Metal Products 12,500 12,400 12,200Industrial Machinery 30,100 30,100 30,600

Construct & Related 10,000 9,900 10,000Oil & Gas Field 4,800 4,700 4,900

General Industrial 5,200 5,200 5,400Electronic Equipment 16,600 16,400 15,800Transportation Equipment 20,700 20,700 20,600

Motor Vehicles 10,300 10,400 11,000Aircraft & Parts 7,200 7,100 6,600

Instruments & Related 3,500 3,500 3,600NONDURABLE GOODS 65,300 65,500 65,600

Food & Kindred Products 20,500 20,600 20,200Textile Mill, Apparel 5,600 5,700 6,200Paper & Allied 4,800 4,700 4,800Printing & Publishing 11,600 11,700 11,800

Newspapers, Periodic 5,100 5,100 5,100Petroleum & Coal Products 3,900 3,900 4,000Rubber & Misc Plastic 14,600 14,600 14,300

Tires & Inner Tubes 6,600 6,600 6,400SERVICE PRODUCING 1,230,500 1,221,500 1,208,400TRANSPORT & PUB UTILS 82,000 82,200 82,100Transportation 49,200 49,300 49,300

Trucking & Warehouse 23,500 23,600 23,400Transportation By Air 19,000 19,000 19,000Pipelines, Exc Natural Gas 900 900 900

Number

INDUSTRY Oct Sep Oct 2000 2000 1999

Communications & Utilities 32,800 32,900 32,800Communications 20,300 20,400 20,200Electric, Gas, Sanitary 12,500 12,500 12,600

TRADE 345,000 344,100 340,700WHOLESALE TRADE 72,100 71,200 69,900

Wholesale - Durables 38,900 38,700 37,500Wholesale -Nondurable 33,200 32,500 32,400

RETAIL TRADE 272,900 272,900 270,800Building Materials, Garden Supl 11,000 11,000 11,000General Merchandise 40,400 40,100 40,000Food Stores 37,700 37,300 38,000Automotive Dealers 31,500 31,600 31,500Apparel & Accessory 10,700 10,500 10,700Furn, Homefurn, Equipment 13,500 13,300 12,800Eating & Drinking 96,800 98,300 96,400Miscellaneous Retail 31,300 30,800 30,400

FINANCE,INS.,REAL EST. 75,300 75,100 73,600Depository Institutions 23,900 24,100 23,400Nondepository Institutions 6,200 6,200 6,000Insurance Carriers 18,200 18,100 17,400

SERVICES 433,900 431,900 422,600Hotels & Other Lodging 10,900 11,000 10,800Personal Services 13,600 13,500 13,400Business Services 105,200 104,600 103,600Motion Pictures 3,800 3,900 3,800Health Services 120,600 119,900 119,500

Hospitals 45,300 45,000 44,600Educational Services 14,900 14,200 14,000Social Services 31,800 31,600 30,200Engineering & Management 29,000 29,100 28,300

TOTAL GOVERNMENT 294,300 288,200 289,400 Total Federal Government 44,900 44,900 45,900 Total State & Local 249,400 243,300 243,500 Total State Government 83,900 81,500 81,100 Total Local Government 165,500 161,800 162,400

Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Employment

INDUSTRY

Oct 2000

Sep 2000

Oct 1999

INDUSTRY

Oct 2000

Sep 2000

Oct 1999

Total Nonfarm 1,495,400 1,492,100 1,470,700 Service Producing 1,222,300 1,219,800 1,200,900

Goods Producing 273,100 272,300 269,800 Transport & Pub Utils 81,900 82,100 82,000 Mining 27,700 27,400 27,400 Trade 344,400 344,500 340,700 Construction 61,700 61,300 58,800 Wholesale 72,000 71,500 69,700 Manufacturing 183,700 183,600 183,600 Retail 272,400 273,000 271,000 Durable Goods No Data Available Finance, Ins., Real Est. 75,400 75,200 73,700 Nondurable Goods 65,200 65,300 65,500 Services 432,300 430,000 420,900

Total Government 288,300 288,000 283,600


State of Oklahoma

Unemployment Rate Labor Force Employment Unemployment Oct �00 Sep �00 Oct �99

565,600 551,470 14,130 2.5% 2.3% 2.4%

Over the Month Growth Exhibited

in Five Major Divisions

• Gains in both the Goods and Service Producing industries led Total NonAgricultural employment in the Oklahoma City MSA to an increase of 0.4% in October. The employment level increased by 10,800 jobs in 2000, a gain of 2.0%.

• Mining held steady over the month, while shedding

100 jobs (-1.7%) over the year. • Construction remained unchanged for the month.

Employment shifted from 21,800 jobs in 1999 to 22,500 in 2000.

• Gains in Nondurable Goods yielded a 0.3% (+200

jobs) increase in Manufacturing for the month of October. Over the year, this major division declined by 0.2% or 100 jobs.

• Transportation and Public Utilities reported

25,600 jobs in October, a gain of 0.4%. Over the year, this major division increased by 500 jobs (+2.0%).

• Despite the over the month increase in the

Wholesale Trade sector, Trade diminished by 0.1% (-100 jobs). Compared to the previous year, employment in this major division rose by 1,400 jobs or 1.1%.

• F.I.R.E. recovered from the previous month�s

deficit, reporting a gain of 200 jobs. Thus far, over the year employment has increased by 0.3%.

• Services gained 700 jobs (+0.4%) over the month.

Employment for the year thus far has exhibited growth of 3.1% (+5,100 jobs).

• Employment gains in both State and Local

Government combined to yield an over the month increase in Total Government of 1.0%. For the year thus far, this major division has gained 3,200 jobs (+3.0%).

Number

INDUSTRY Oct '00 Sep '00 Oct '99Total Nonfarm 550,200 548,000 539,400Goods Producing 86,100 85,900 85,600Mining 5,900 5,900 6,000Construction 22,500 22,500 21,800Manufacturing 57,700 57,500 57,800Durable Goods 40,000 40,000 40,500 Prim, Fabr Metal Prod 5,900 5,900 6,000 Fabricated Metal 5,100 5,100 5,200 Mach & Electric Equip 19,300 19,300 19,700 Industrial Machinery 9,600 9,600 9,800 Electronic Equipment 9,700 9,700 9,900 Transportation Equip. 8,900 8,900 8,700Nondurable Goods 17,700 17,500 17,300 Food & Kindred Prod. 4,700 4,500 4,500 Printing & Publishing 5,000 5,000 5,000Service Producing 464,100 462,100 453,800Transport & Pub Utils 25,600 25,500 25,100Transportation 15,400 15,300 15,000Communications & Utils 10,200 10,200 10,100Trade 126,200 126,300 124,800Wholesale Trade 28,700 28,500 27,400Retail Trade 97,500 97,800 97,400 General Merchandise 11,100 11,300 11,600 Food Stores 11,100 10,900 11,200Finance,Ins.,Real Est. 30,700 30,500 30,600 Deposit & Nondeposit 12,300 12,300 12,200 Insurance Carriers 7,500 7,500 7,500Services 171,000 170,300 165,900 Health Services 46,700 46,400 45,900 Hospitals 19,700 19,600 19,200 Educational Services 7,800 7,300 6,600Total Government 110,600 109,500 107,400 Total Federal Govt. 27,100 27,100 26,400 Total State & Local 83,500 82,400 81,000 Total State Government 38,600 37,800 37,500 Total Local Government 44,900 44,600 43,500


Oklahoma City Metropolitan Statistical Area

HOURS AND EARNINGS

Industry Avg Weekly


Oct 2000

Sep 2000

Oct 1999

Oct 2000

Sep 2000

Oct 1999

Manufacturing 43.0 43.3 44.6 15.25 15.23 14.22

Durable Goods 44.1 44.1 44.7 15.86 15.75 14.66

Non-Durable Goods 40.4 41.4 44.5 13.73 13.92 13.11

Unemployment Rate Labor Force Employment Unemployment Oct �00 Sep �00 Oct �99

419,160 407,200 11,960 2.9% 2.8% 3.2%

Total Government Leads to Over the Month Gains

• Total Nonfarm employment in the Tulsa Metropolitan Statistical Area grew 0.5% to 399,300 in October. Job gains were exhibited in both Goods and Service Producing Industries. Compared to October 1999, employment in Tulsa has grown by 0.5% or 2,000 jobs.

• Mining, Manufacturing and T.P.U. all reported

no changes over the month. • Construction gained 100 jobs over the month,

bringing the employment level to 19,200. Over the year, employment in this major industry has grown by 3.8% or 700 jobs.

• Trade reported a gain of 200 jobs, rising to

92,400 in October. Job growth was concentrated in the Retail sector, while the Wholesale sector slipped slightly.

• Although F.I.R.E. exhibited a loss of 100 jobs

over the month, the current employment level is up 1.8% or 400 jobs over the year.

• Services gained 0.3% or 400 jobs in October.

Compared to October 1999, employment in this major division has grown by 0.3% or 400 jobs.

• Total Government experienced the largest over

the month growth, adding 1,200 jobs. Employment gains were exhibited at both the State and Local level, while Federal Government reported a small decline. Over the year, Total Government employment has increased by 0.9% or 400 jobs.

Number

INDUSTRY Oct '00 Sep '00 Oct '99Total Nonfarm 399,300 397,500 397,300Goods Producing 81,000 80,900 80,500Mining 7,000 7,000 7,100Construction 19,200 19,100 18,500Manufacturing 54,800 54,800 54,900Durable Goods 42,200 42,200 42,300 Stone, Clay, Glass 3,400 3,400 3,400 Prim, Fabr Metal Prod 15,100 15,100 14,700 Primary Metal Ind. 2,400 2,500 2,400 Fabricated Metal 12,700 12,600 12,300 Fabr Struct Metal Pr 8,100 8,000 7,900 Mach & Electric Equip 12,900 12,900 13,500 Industrial Machinery 9,600 9,600 10,200 Construct & Related 2,700 2,700 2,900Electronic Equipment 3,300 3,300 3,300Transportation Equip. 6,400 6,400 6,100Nondurable Goods 12,600 12,600 12,600 Printing & Publishing 3,300 3,300 3,300 Petroleum & Coal Prod 2,300 2,300 2,400Service Producing 318,300 316,600 316,800Transport & Pub Utils 32,800 32,800 32,700Transportation 20,400 20,500 20,300Communications & Utils 12,400 12,300 12,400Trade 92,400 92,200 92,200Wholesale Trade 21,600 21,700 21,700Retail Trade 70,800 70,500 70,500 General Merchandise 9,800 9,700 10,000Finance,Ins.,Real Est. 22,500 22,600 22,100 Dep-Nondep,Sec. Commd 8,200 8,200 8,000Services 126,200 125,800 125,800 Health Services 35,700 35,500 35,100 Hospitals 15,300 15,200 15,000 Educational Services 5,400 5,300 5,500Total Government 44,400 43,200 44,000 Total Federal Govt. 4,900 5,000 5,100 Total State & Local 39,500 38,200 38,900 Total State Government 7,300 6,700 6,500 Total Local Government 32,200 31,500 32,400


Tulsa Metropolitan Statistical Area

HOURS AND EARNINGS

Industry Avg Weekly


Oct 2000

Sep 2000

Oct 1999

Oct 2000

Sep 2000

Oct 1999

Manufacturing 43.7 42.9 43.0 15.17 15.58 13.20

Durable Goods 44.2 43.8 42.8 15.45 15.87 13.11

Non-Durable Goods 42.5 40.2 43.7 14.24 14.52 13.54

Total NonFarm Movement Attributed to State and Local Government Gains • Lawton�s Total NonFarm

employment rose 0.8% or (+300 jobs) in October. The over-the-year gain measured 0.3% or (+100 jobs).

• Construction in the Lawton

MSA declined 5.9% or (-100 jobs) over the month. There were no changes reported over the year in this major division.

• Mining, T.P.U. and F.I.R.E. all were flat over the month and for the year.

• Due to the over-the-month

decline in Nondurable Goods production, Manufacturing lost 2.6% or (-100 jobs) in October. The yearly loss for this major division was also 2.6% or (-100 jobs).

• Trade related employment in

Lawton inched ahead 1.1% or (+100 jobs) over the month. Over the year, Trade held a net effect of zero and was unchanged.

• Services in the Lawton MSA

increased 1.1% or (+100 jobs) in October. For the year, this major division has jumped 3.3% or (+300 jobs).

• Total Government in Lawton

added 2.6% or (+300 jobs) over

the month. Over the year, this major division has dropped 0.8% or (-100 jobs).

Seasonal Trend in Construction Expected

• Total NonFarm employment in Enid increased 0.4% or (+100 jobs) over the month. Over the year, Total NonFarm employment dropped 2.1% or

(-500 jobs). • Mining, Manufacturing, T.P.U.

and F.I.R.E. all held steady over the month and for the year.

• Construction in the Enid MSA

fell 11.1% or (-100 jobs) in October. This major division recorded an over-the-year decline of 11.1% or (-100 jobs).

• Trade related employment in

Enid remained flat over the month. Over the year, a slight loss in the Retail Trade sector caused Trade to fall 1.6% or (-100 jobs).

• Services in the Enid MSA

gained 1.6% or (+100 jobs) in October. However, over the year, Services has shed 3.1% or (-200 jobs) in Enid.

• Due to a monthly gain in Local

Government, Total Government in Enid added 2.6% or (+100 jobs) over the month. Factoring in the over-the-year losses in Federal Government, Total Government in the Enid MSA experienced a minimal decline of 2.4% or (-100 jobs).

Number

INDUSTRY Oct �00 Sep '00 Oct '99Total Nonfarm 39,100 38,800 39,000Goods Producing 5,400 5,600 5,500Mining 100 100 100Construction 1,600 1,700 1,600Manufacturing 3,700 3,800 3,800Durable Goods 400 400 400Nondurable Goods 3,300 3,400 3,400Service Producing 33,700 33,200 33,500Transportation & Public Utilities 1,600 1,600 1,600Trade 9,300 9,200 9,300Wholesale Trade 1,000 900 900Retail Trade 8,300 8,300 8,400Finance, Insur., & Real Estate 1,700 1,700 1,700Services 9,300 9,200 9,000Total Government 11,800 11,500 11,900 Total Federal Government 3,800 3,800 3,700 Total State & Local 8,000 7,700 8,200 Total State Government 1,500 1,400 1,500 Total Local Government 6,500 6,300 6,700

Number

INDUSTRY Oct �00 Sep '00 Oct '99 Total Nonfarm 23,800 23,700 24,300Goods Producing 4,000 4,100 4,100Mining 600 600 600Construction 800 900 900Manufacturing 2,600 2,600 2,600Durable Goods 900 900 900Nondurable Goods 1,700 1,700 1,700Service Producing 19,800 19,600 20,200Transpor & Public Utilities 2,200 2,200 2,200Trade 6,200 6,200 6,300Wholesale Trade 1,400 1,400 1,400Retail Trade 4,800 4,800 4,900Finance, Insur., & Real Est 1,100 1,100 1,100Services 6,300 6,200 6,500Total Government 4,000 3,900 4,100 Total Federal Govt. 300 300 400 Total State & Local 3,700 3,600 3,700 Total State Government 1,100 1,100 1,100 Total Local Government 2,600 2,500 2,600


Lawton Metropolitan Statistical Area

Enid Metropolitan Statistical Area

Labor Force Statistics

Unemployment Rate* Unemployment Rate

Area Employ* Unemp* Oct �00 Sep �00 Oct �99 Area Employ Unemp Oct �00 Sep �00 Oct �99

U.S. 135,771,000 5,122,000 3.6% 3.8% 3.8% KIOWA 4,570 130 2.8% 3.0% 3.1%

Oklahoma 1,616,400 50,700 3.0% 2.9% 3.1% LATIMER 4,340 220 4.9% 4.8% 6.0%

LEFLORE 19,230 910 4.5% 4.5% 4.3%

ADAIR 7,960 380 4.6% 4.3% 4.9% LINCOLN 13,510 430 3.1% 2.8% 3.9%

ALFALFA 2,470 50 2.1% 2.4% 0.8% LOGAN 14,970 440 2.8% 2.7% 2.4%

ATOKA 4,740 140 2.9% 2.1% 3.1% LOVE 3,630 120 3.3% 2.7% 3.1%

BEAVER 2,210 40 1.9% 1.8% 3.1% McCLAIN 13,290 300 2.2% 2.2% 2.3%

BECKHAM 9,280 280 3.0% 2.9% 3.9% McCURTAIN 15,390 920 5.7% 5.1% 5.5%

BLAINE 4,240 110 2.5% 2.1% 2.7% McINTOSH 7,900 340 4.2% 3.5% 4.6%

BRYAN 17,620 340 1.9% 1.7% 2.1% MAJOR 3,620 90 2.5% 2.4% 2.8%

CADDO 13,020 710 5.2% 5.2% 3.4% MARSHALL 5,250 140 2.6% 3.1% 3.1%

CANADIAN 46,920 1,020 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% MAYES 16,110 600 3.6% 4.2% 4.1%

CARTER 19,260 960 4.7% 4.9% 4.2% MURRAY 4,920 220 4.3% 4.1% 5.8%

CHEROKEE 18,570 550 2.9% 2.7% 3.0% MUSKOGEE 32,310 1,310 3.9% 3.8% 3.9%

CHOCTAW 5,260 360 6.4% 6.3% 5.0% NOBLE 5,620 130 2.3% 1.8% 2.4%

CIMARRON 1,720 30 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% NOWATA 3,720 150 4.0% 4.0% 3.8%

CLEVELAND 113,570 2,150 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% OKFUSKEE 3,390 160 4.5% 4.9% 4.3%

COAL 2,430 100 4.0% 3.9% 5.2% OKLAHOMA 334,010 9,180 2.7% 2.5% 2.5%

COMANCHE 40,290 1,330 3.2% 3.2% 3.5% OKMULGEE 13,270 890 6.3% 5.7% 6.2%

COTTON 1,900 50 2.7% 2.7% 4.3% OSAGE 19,750 670 3.3% 3.4% 3.1%

CRAIG 6,310 270 4.0% 3.6% 2.7% OTTAWA 12,880 1,010 7.2% 6.7% 4.3%

CREEK 32,320 1,040 3.1% 3.1% 3.7% PAWNEE 5,850 300 4.9% 4.6% 4.2%

CUSTER 11,010 280 2.5% 2.4% 2.7% PAYNE 37,870 450 1.2% 1.0% 1.1%

DELAWARE 16,950 530 3.0% 2.9% 3.3% PITTSBURG 17,050 720 4.1% 3.9% 5.1%

DEWEY 1,820 70 3.4% 2.4% 3.6% PONTOTOC 17,380 580 3.2% 3.1% 2.8%

ELLIS 1,490 70 4.4% 4.7% 4.7% POTTAWATOMIE 28,730 1,040 3.5% 3.4% 3.3%

GARFIELD 25,830 720 2.7% 2.7% 3.0% PUSHMATAHA 4,570 220 4.6% 4.1% 4.5%

GARVIN 10,530 460 4.2% 3.8% 5.0% ROGER MILLS 1,820 50 2.7% 2.5% 2.6%

GRADY 18,030 720 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% ROGERS 34,850 940 2.6% 2.5% 3.1%

GRANT 2,020 60 2.7% 2.6% 1.9% SEMINOLE 8,910 490 5.2% 5.0% 6.3%

GREER 2,390 40 1.4% 1.4% 2.7% SEQUOYAH 16,410 800 4.7% 4.1% 3.9%

HARMON 1,170 30 2.7% 2.4% 3.1% STEPHENS 16,090 620 3.7% 3.4% 4.6%

HARPER 1,640 40 2.5% 1.9% 3.0% TEXAS 14,980 330 2.1% 2.1% 1.9%

HASKELL 5,010 260 4.9% 4.3% 6.0% TILLMAN 3,240 130 3.8% 3.5% 3.8%

HUGHES 4,990 290 5.4% 5.4% 5.9% TULSA 292,150 8,540 2.8% 2.8% 3.2%

JACKSON 12,980 330 2.5% 2.4% 3.1% WAGONER 28,120 780 2.7% 2.5% 2.5%

JEFFERSON 2,990 70 2.2% 2.2% 3.4% WASHINGTON 19,390 650 3.2% 3.1% 3.9%

JOHNSTON 4,880 170 3.4% 3.0% 3.8% WASHITA 4,560 90 1.9% 2.1% 3.2%

KAY 20,070 1,000 4.7% 4.6% 6.0% WOODS 4,390 50 1.2% 0.8% 1.4%

KINGFISHER 6,470 140 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% WOODWARD 8,020 300 3.6% 3.1% 4.5% * Latest month�s data are preliminary.


County Data


2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Oct-99

Nov-9

9

Dec-99

Jan-0

0

Feb-00

Mar-0

0

Apr-0

0

May

-00

Jun-

00

Jul-0

0

Aug-00

Sep-00

Oct-00

3.8

3.1

3.6

3.1

US

OK

September October

O.K. U.S. O.K. U.S.

Seasonally Adjusted

13 31 14 31

Not Seasonally

Adjusted 14 29 16 27

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in October, following a 0.5 percent increase in September. Deceleration in the energy index�up 0.2 percent in October, following a 3.8 percent rise in September�was largely responsible for the moderation in the October CPI-U. In October, the index for petroleum-based energy declined 1.2 percent, while the index for energy services increased 1.5 percent. The food index, which increased 0.2 percent in September, rose 0.1 percent in October. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent, following a 0.3 percent rise in September. A smaller increase in apparel prices and a downturn in the tobacco index were principally responsible for the more moderate advance in October. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects changes in the cost of living over time and is issued monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). For more information on the U.S. CPI please visit BLS website: www.bls.gov

September & October�s Ranking(Unemployment Rate)

Oklahoma and U.S. Unemployment Rate(Not Seasonally Adjusted)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00

U.S. CPI % Change From One Year Ago

1999

October 2.6 November 2.6 December 2.7

Annual Average 2.2

2000 January 2.7

February 3.2 March 3.7

April 3.0 May 3.1

June 3.7 July 3 7 August 3.4 September 3.5 October 3.4

Distribution of Unemployment Rates Preliminary Data for October 2000

At A Glance

Oklahoma Labor Market Information Economic Research and Analysis Division Oklahoma Employment Security Commission PO Box 52003 Oklahoma City, OK 73152-2003

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The material contained in this publication is in the public domain and may be reproduced withoutspecial permission. Please credit Oklahoma Labor Market Information, Oklahoma Employment Security Commission. The Economic Research & Analysis Division of the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission publishes the Oklahoma Labor Market Information monthly. Twenty-three hundred (2300) copies have been published at a cost of $2,282.00 paid from funds granted by the U. S. Department ofLabor. Copies have been deposited with the Publications Clearinghouse of the OklahomaDepartment of Libraries.

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Economic Research and Analysis

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