Electric Mobility - Opportunities for India - ISA...
Transcript of Electric Mobility - Opportunities for India - ISA...
Standards
Certification
Education & Training
Publishing
Conferences & Exhibits
2017
Electric Mobility - Opportunities for India
Where Policy Meets Technology
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Presenter
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Barath Rajagopalan
Divisional Manager – Business Development
Ashok Leyland
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Barath Rajagopalan
• 15+ years of experience in automotive industry.
• Bachelors in Mechanical engg. and Masters in
Manufacturing systems engg.
• 10 years of experience in new product program
management at Ashok Leyland.
• Currently in charge of EV business development at Ashok
Leyland.
Energy Crisis The world has 53 years of oil usage left *
* Source : BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2016 (65th Edition)
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Key triggers for faster adoption of
EV’s
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Fluctuating Fuel Price India imports Rs. 5,61,976 Crores of oil equal to Srilanka’s GDP
Increased Air Pollution
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Public Transportation in India – Industry
Snapshot
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Decade Share of buses by volume in total vehicles in India
1951 11.00%
1961 9.00%
1971 5.00%
1981 3.00%
1991 2.00%
2001 1.22%
2011 1.19%
2012 1.10%
2013 1.09%
Source: Society of Indian Automotive Manufacturing (SIAM)
Source: Motor Transport Statistics of India, Ministry of
Shipping, Road Transport & Highways, Government of
India.
66.5
In spite of carrying max. passengers in land based transportation, % of
buses by volume is very low.
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Public Transportation in India –
Air Pollution (CO2 emissions)
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Vehicle pollution comparison
(Per passenger km)
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0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
Bus 2 Wheeler LMV(Passenger)
Cars and Jeep Taxi
CO2 (MT)
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
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Bus 2 Wheeler LMV(Passenger)
Cars and Jeep Taxi
PM (GG)
One BUS Co2 emission equals 17.2 two wheelers (or) 37.96 Cars
One Bus PM emission equals 7.9 two wheelers (or) 4.68 Cars
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Pollution – A big issue to tackle
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Accelerated adoption of alternate fuels
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Accelerated adoption of alternate fuels (CNG/LNG/Hybrid/Electric Vehicles)
Green Transport Goals Alternate Technologies 2010 BS III
2017 BS IV
2020 BS VI
2030
Improvement in Energy Efficiency Reduction in air pollution and greenhouse
gases. Increased use of renewable resources Reduced use of non renewable resources Reduced Noise Pollution
Conventional Diesel Vehicles ⁺⁺⁺ ⁺⁺⁺ ⁺⁺⁺ ⁺⁺
Alternative fuel technologies - Biofuels, CNG,etc., ⁺⁺ ⁺⁺⁺ ⁺⁺⁺ ⁺⁺⁺
Hybrid and plug in Hybrid vehicles - ⁺ ⁺⁺ ⁺⁺⁺
Battery Electric Vehicles - ⁺ ⁺⁺ ⁺⁺⁺⁺
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Smart City and focus on buses
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One Bus Can Replace
1. 44 cars / 55 two
wheelers
2. 1/10 of the car
space
3. 1/3 of the 2
wheeler Space
4. Increased
Efficiency
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Evolution of EV Buses..
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Energy crisis and pollution – Accelerated adoption towards electric and hybrid fleets since 2009.
Key Markets – China , Europe and USA.
Key Policy initiative's and subsidies accelerated growth.
• China subsidies extended till 2020 (Avg. $48,000 to $61,000 per bus)
• Formation of ZeUS in Europe with €22.5 million funding.
• UK - £30.4 million funding for electric mobility in public transportation
• USA - $22.5 million from FTA through Low or No Emission Vehicle Deployment Program
(LoNo) with another $16 million of funding from the California Climate Investment fund for
electric bus.
Evolution in Batteries – Moving towards higher energy density and lower costs
• Over 80% EV market controlled by Li-Ion (LFP chemistry)
• Battery cost at $150 / kwH is expected to be breached by 2018 and widely considered as
the tipping point for mass adoption of EV’s.
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Electric Bus - Major manufacturers and battery technology
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Performance
SpecificEnergy
SpecificPower
Life
Safety
Cost
Performance
Specific Energy
Specific Power
Life
Safety
Cost
Performance
Specific Energy
Specific Power
Life
Safety
Cost
Over
80%
Source : Battery chemistry comparison
http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/types_of_lithium_ion
LFP LTO NMC
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Current Market Scenario
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China – Global leader in EV sales
• 36,500 EV bus sale in 2015
• 183% CAGR since 2009
Washington DC –
Plying over 400 EV buses. To
increase to 900 buses by 2019.
California–
Inducting 150 EV buses by
2017
Great Britain & EU –
Deploying 600+ EV buses by
2019.
Netherlands
100% EV buses by 2020
South Korea
50% EV fleet by 2020.
India
50+ EV buses in 2017
Over 102 cities around the world have deployed EV buses in pilots/major fleets.
China OE's Sales Figures (EV & Hybrid) (2009 - 2014)
Yutong 15369
King Long 7115
Nanjing KL 9012
Zhongtong 8904
Dongfeng 5761
BYD 5631
China – EV Bus growth story
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Electric Bus – Forecast 2025
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Ashok Leyland
China ~ 28 k (68.7 %)
S.America ~ 2.4 k (5.9 %)
Europe ~ 3.2 k (7.8%)
N.America
~ 1.6 k (4%)
India ~ 3.8 k (9.4%) Other
Markets
~ 1.7 k (4.3 %)
~ 5.7 k in 2015
Legend
% denotes the respective region’s forecast
share of electric buses of totlal global electric
bus sales in 2025 Markets for 10Ton or above (Fully electric buses).
Source : Frost & Sullivan, Strategic Analysis of Global Hybrid and Electric
Heavy-Duty Transit Bus Market , August 2015 Other Markets include Africa, Middle-East, CIS, Asia (Excluding China and India) and Oceania
~ 40.7 k in 2025
40.7 k Electric bus sales in 2025
India expected to be 2nd largest EV bus market after China with TIV of ~3500+ and 9% global share.
Other industry estimates place the figures between 50k to 80k sales by 2025.
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Evolution of Li-ion battery Cost and energy density *
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Notes: USD/kWh = United States dollars per kilowatt-hour; Wh/L = watt-hours per litre. Data is based on an observed industry-wide trend, include useful energy only, refer to battery packs and suppose an annual battery production of 100 000 units for each manufacturer.
* Sources: US DOE (2015 and 2016) for PHEV battery cost and energy density estimates; EV Obsession (2015); and HybridCARS (2015)
Battery cost at $150 / kwH is expected to be breached by
2018 and widely considered as the tipping point for mass adoption of EV’s.
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India – EV policy progression
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National Green Tribunal (NGT) • Recent NGT interventions with respect to
vehicle air pollution cases, including restriction of old vehicles and restriction on the number of vehicles adds further stimulus to alternate fuels.
• Recent ban on diesel vehicle at Rohtang lead to HRTC tender of 25 Electric buses.
Summary • FAME pilot incentive scheme expected to be rolled out by March 2017. Will spur more STU adoption of EV buses. • Pollution becoming a major policy initiative and will pave way for alternate fuels technologies. • MoP initiative on Swap EV Bus – On Fast Track mode
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India’s policy initiatives in EV space
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FAME-India is short for Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric vehicles in India and part of the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan. The scheme, envisages Rs. 795 crore supports for pilot & demand incentive. Formal policy roll out for pilot incentive expected by Dec 2017. Government aims to bring 6-7 million (60-70 lakh) electric and hybrid vehicles on road by 2020 • Government will set up the Governing Council for Electric Vehicles • Operate under the Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises • It will develop infrastructure for electric mobility - charging stations • Council to have representatives from various Ministries – includes Road Transport and Highways,
New and • Renewable Energy and Power and also industry representatives. • Promote Joint Ventures, esp. in EV battery manufacturing & technology transfers.
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India – Happening place for EV’s
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India – Key factors for success
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Price
Falling battery prices
Policy Initiatives to spur “Make in India” program
Range Anxiety
Battery swap
Newer chemistries (LTO) with rapid charging.
Comprehensive maintenance strategy
End to end AMC
Training to mechanics
Charging time
PPP partnerships for establishing country wide charging/swap stations.
PSU’s contribution a major factor.
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THANK YOU
EV Bus Architecture
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Air Compressor & Steering Systems
Traction motor and controller
Power Distribution Box & Charger Sockets
HV Batteries String 1 & 2
HV Batteries String 3
FDSS