EL RAEY OLIS FINAL doc Egypt paper - OECD · 2016-03-29 · Generally, the vulnerability of the...

Unclassified ENV/EPOC/GF/SD/RD(2004)1/FINAL Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 07-Feb-2005 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________ English - Or. English ENVIRONMENT DIRECTORATE Environment Policy Committee

Global Forum on Sustainable Development

ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE COASTAL ZONE OF EGYPT by Mohamed El Raey

Paris, 11-12 November 2004

JT00178091 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format

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Copyright OECD, 2004

Application for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this material should be addressed to the Head of Publications Service, OECD, 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris, Cedex 16, France.


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ 4

1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 5 2. Coastal Vulnerability to Climate Change......................................................................................... 6

2.1 Coastal zone................................................................................................................................ 6 2.2 Water Resources in the coastal zone........................................................................................... 7 2.3 Agricultural resources in the coastal zone .................................................................................. 8 2.4 Human Health in the coastal zone............................................................................................... 8 2.5 Coral Reefs ................................................................................................................................. 8 2.6 Lakes Ecosystems ....................................................................................................................... 8 2.7 Marine Protected areas................................................................................................................ 9 2.8 Socio-economic Resources in the coastal zone........................................................................... 9

3. Adaptation measures ........................................................................................................................ 9 4. National priorities........................................................................................................................... 10 5. Adaptation options ......................................................................................................................... 11 6. Needs for sustainable development ................................................................................................ 11

6.1 Law enforcement ...................................................................................................................... 11 6.2 Institutional capability/ networking .......................................................................................... 12 6.3 Center for land use monitoring, modeling and decision support .............................................. 12 6.4 Technology transfer, education and awareness programs......................................................... 12 6.5 Aquaculture alternatives and land use ...................................................................................... 12 6.6 Establishment of a sub-committee for ICZM for each lake...................................................... 12 6.7 Greenbelt and agro-forestry ...................................................................................................... 12 6.8 Northern lakes management ..................................................................................................... 13 6.9 Water harvesting and wastewater treatment ............................................................................. 13 6.10 Better control of land based sources of pollution ..................................................................... 14 6.11 Development of private, low technology, employment intensive opportunities....................... 14 6.12 Establishment of an awareness campaign for decision makers, stakeholders and NGO .......... 14 6.13 Research on salt tolerant plants, water treatment and reuse...................................................... 14

7. Analysis and prioritization of options for adaptation ..................................................................... 14 8. Development of appropriate adaptation strategies ......................................................................... 18

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................. 19


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Results of the preliminary studies of vulnerability assessments of the coastal zone to impacts of sea level rise have indicated potential adverse impacts due to coastal inundation, salt water intrusion, excessive erosion, soil salinization, deterioration of coral reef and mangrove communities and coastal ecosystems, in addition to vulnerabilities to other changes of climate. Detailed assessments have not been carried out for many vulnerable areas with indications of serious losses in coastal cities such as Alexandria, Rosetta, Port Said on the Mediterranean and Hurghada and Sharm El Sheikh on the Red Sea. Estimates of socio-economic implications and expected job losses over the coming few decades have produced alarming figures. The potential losses of the world heritage cannot be estimated

Options of adaptation in the coastal zone have also been investigated. These included hard and soft protection measures, land use changes, Integrated Coastal Zone Management and economic incentives. Many of these aspects are site and community specific, and have not been investigated thoroughly. However, preliminary investigations indicated that hard structure protection measures are probably the least costly and best available measure for short-term protection. Long-term protection measures include the most expensive land use changes and integrated coastal zone management ICZM.

Comparisons among options for adaptation have also been stressed. Shortages of large-scale monitoring and management institutional capabilities in the coastal zone have been a severe limitation for proper adaptation. Transfer of technology and capacity building are major needs. Specific needs include support for Regional Monitoring, Modeling and Assessment; scientific and technical investigation of various options for adaptation and socio-economic implications and awareness.


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ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE COASTAL ZONE OF EGYPT1

by

Mohamed El Raey2

1. Introduction

It has been known for quite sometime (e.g. Sestini, 1989; Broadus et al, 1989, Delft, 1991) that Egypt is one of the most vulnerable countries to the impact of climate change. Egypt hosts about 25% of the total wetland of the Mediterranean Sea and has a shoreline that extends for over 5800 km on the Mediterranean and Red Sea. While not a major contributor to the world total GHG emissions (e.g. El Raey et al, 1996), it recognizes its own vulnerability to climate change in vital areas threatening sustainable development of its natural and socioeconomic systems. Of particular concern is the vulnerability of water resources, agricultural resources and coastal zone resources. The vulnerability and adaptation options are the main concern of this outline, not only because of the highly diversified coastal resources of the country, but also because of the potential indirect impacts on scarce water resources, agricultural resources as well as other cross cutting sectors in the coastal zone such as health, tourism and socioeconomic welfare.

The rise in sea level threatens Egypt's long coastal stretch on the Mediterranean and the Red Sea with potential damages to, not only the tourism industry, a major contributor to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also to the entire ecosystem. The impact of salt-water intrusion on groundwater resources, fisheries and soil salinity on land use and productivity in the coastal zone cannot be overlooked. Predicted socioeconomic implications due to human migration, land loss, and soil salinity cause significant concerns on food security.

Egypt is facing these challenges responsibly and taking proactive measures to protect its future generations from serious threats that will increase in the absence of actions taken today. A signatory to the 1995 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Egypt has prepared a National Action Plan on Climate Change to coordinate its efforts to face this serious and important challenge, to maintain its sustainability economic development, and to provide a safe environment for its future generations. Within the context of setting up a climate change national institutional structure, Egypt formed an Inter-ministerial National Climate Change Committee. This committee represents a wide range of governmental and non-governmental stakeholders.

1. Suggested Citation: El Raey, M. (2004), Adaptation to Climate Change for Sustainable Development in the

Coastal Zone of Egypt, paper presented at the OECD Global Forum on Sustainable Development: Development and Climate Change, ENV/EPOC/GF/SD/RD(2004)1/FINAL, OECD, Paris.

2. Professor and Dean, Institute of Graduate Studies and Research, University of Alexandria.

The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of their organisations or of the OECD.


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2. Coastal Vulnerability to Climate Change

Generally, the vulnerability of the coastal zone of Egypt to impacts of sea level rise can be categorized as follows:

• Vulnerability due to inundation of urban, industrial and agricultural land and its potential impact on social and economic sectors

• Vulnerability due to salt-water intrusion and its impact on water resources, soil and land productivity and coastal ecosystems

• Vulnerability due to expected changes of offshore current circulation pattern and its impact on fish catch, navigation and tourist safety

• Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems (coral reef communities, mangrove, marine life…) and its impacts on tourism, food security and socio-economic conditions

• Vulnerability of various other sectors in the coastal zone such as energy, health, animal productivity and food security due to indirect impacts of sea level rise in the coastal zone

In particular; the following sectors are most vulnerable:

2.1 Coastal zone

Egypt's Delta with its coastal front on the Mediterranean is considered most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In addition to the rise in sea level, shoreline erosion, stresses on fisheries and saltwater intrusion in groundwater create major challenges. These factors also produce stressful effects on water and agricultural resources, tourism and human settlements. Fragile and unique ecosystems such as mangrove stands in the Red Sea, which stabilize shorelines and provide a habitat for many species, may also be threatened. Fig. 1 presents vulnerable coastal areas on the Nile delta region below 2m contour level.


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Figure1. Nile delta vulnerable areas below sea level (red) and below 2m contour level (yellow). Lakes appear in dark blue color.

A study on the vulnerability of various sectors of Alexandria, the second largest city in Egypt (e.g. El Raey et al, 1995; Frihy et al, 1997; El Raey et al, 1999) based on a scenario of 30 cm sea level rise by 2025 revealed land and property losses of tens of billions of dollars, over half a million inhabitants may be displaced and approximately 70,000 lost jobs are estimated for Alexandria city only. Rosetta city, another one of Egypt's historical cities, is already suffering from shoreline erosion as well as waterlogging and waterbogging problems (El Raey et al, 1997). It is estimated that a 50-cm rise in sea level could affect one third of the city's employment power with significant economic losses reaching billions of dollars. Similarly, the city of Port Said is vulnerable to sea level rise with possible impacts on its industrial, transportation and urban sectors.

On the Red Sea on the other hand different problems are of main concern. The most important natural resources on the red sea coast, namely the coral reef and mangrove trees are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In addition, excessive urbanization with limited planning and monitoring is also threatening these resources. Many of the limited ecological systems on the coast are again vulnerable due to expected shortages of water and agricultural resources, hence endangering many rare species of plants, animals and birds.

2.2 Water Resources in the coastal zone

Egypt's water supply is primarily dependent on the second largest river in the world, the Nile. More than 95 percent of the water consumed in Egypt is generated outside of its geographic territory. The mean annual rainfall in Egypt varies from a maximum of 170 mm/year on the north coast, which extends for a distance of 1000 km, then decreases to an average of 20 mm near the city of Cairo, and diminishes to as little as 2 mm close to the city of Aswan in upper Egypt.


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Different scenarios provide widely diverging fluctuations of possible future Nile river flows, from a 30 percent increase to a 78 percent decrease. Water management is thus one of the most important adaptation actions. On the supply-side, adaptation options include measures to improve rain-harvesting techniques, management of groundwater extraction, recycling water, water desalination, improving water transportation, and water conservation and protection against salt water intrusion. Adaptation on the demand-side requires minimizing reliance on water and optimizing economic return of its unit volume. It also includes better management and use of rainfall over coastal areas.

2.3 Agricultural resources in the coastal zone

Agricultural resources in the coastal zone are highly vulnerable not only due to increased temperatures but also due to salt-water intrusion. Salt-water intrusion will affect soil salinity hence land productivity as well as the quality of crops and its salt content. Increased frequencies and severity of heat waves and dust storms will also affect various aspects of flowering and growth. Changes of the crop distribution pattern are necessary to minimize losses due to CC.

2.4 Human Health in the coastal zone

Climate change is expected to have both direct and indirect adverse impacts on human health, which will be aggravated by high population densities. Direct impacts include increased prevalence of vector borne, diseases, physiological disorders, skin cancer, eye cataracts, deaths and injuries, respiratory ailments, heat strokes and heat related illnesses, as well as a weakening of the public health infrastructure. The indirect impacts involve factors such as demographic dislocations and socioeconomic disruptions. However, comprehensive studies that contain detailed estimations and correlations between climate change and human health are still lacking.

2.5 Coral Reefs

Red Sea coral reefs are among the most spectacular in the world, boasting a high level of biodiversity with over 1,000 named species and many more yet to be identified. They are considered among the most sensitive ecosystems to long-term climate change.

Corals are especially sensitive to variation in sea surface temperatures, and when physiologically stressed, corals may lose symbiotic algae, which supply nutrients and colors. In this stage, corals appear white and are referred to as bleached. While corals can recover from short-term bleaching, irreversible damage and subsequent mortality can occur by prolonged bleaching. Corals are already stressed by human impacts such as runoff from wastewater and damage from recreational diving and snorkeling.

Adaptation strategies have been proposed such as raising public awareness, and monitoring programs for selected hot spots on the Red Sea shore to document the effects of climatic variability on coral reefs. In addition, identification of the damage occurring to coral reefs, including bleaching would be valuable prerequisite to proper control.

Global warming is expected to put more pressures on coastal regions, hence increase pressure and impacts on such irreplaceable creatures. An integrated management approach must be worked out for conservation.

2.6 Lakes Ecosystems

The northern lakes (lagoonal ecosystems) are particularly vulnerable to impacts of sea level rise and salt-water intrusion. Fauna and flora will be severely adversely affected due to climate change. A


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change of temperature and salinity will affect marine biodiversity, marine and agricultural productivity and fish catch.

The coastal regions of many of the inner lakes (Lake Qarun, Rayyan lakes and Natrun Lakes) are again highly vulnerable due to expected increased salinity with climate change and potential impacts of sand dunes. The lack of any management and strong monitoring systems exacerbates its vulnerability. Increased temperatures are expected to enhance evaporation, increase salinity and reduce biodiversity of both marine organisms and birds.

2.7 Marine Protected areas

The protected area of Ras Mohamed at the southern tip of Sinai Peninsula is considered one of the most important demonstrations of proper management of marine and coastal resources. Many other protected areas and islands with rare species of corals, mangrove and marine life on the Red Sea and on the Mediterranean are claimed. However, extensive threats of anthropogenic activities still exist. Global warming and increased frequencies of heat waves and dust storms will even exacerbate any deterioration.

2.8 Socio-economic Resources in the coastal zone

Shortage of institutional capabilities in the coastal zone has turned stakeholders, particularly fishermen at a seriously vulnerable situation. This group already suffers from problems of lack of awareness, low income, accretion and erosion, shortages of services and lack of integrated management or monitoring systems. Mixing of pollution with impacts on their income resource, fisheries resources have lowered the quality of life of most of them.

3. Adaptation measures

Various adaptation measures have been implemented by national authorities starting from issuing legislation (setback distance and enforcement of EIA by Law 4/94), building hard structures on areas vulnerable to erosional and accretional risks, to establishing an integrated Coastal Zone management committee for proper management and coordination among concerned authorities.

• In 1995, Egypt developed the National Climate Change Action Plan, which integrates climate change concerns into the national policy and started through participation in the US Country Study Program USCSP-Support for National Action Plan (SNAP). A vulnerability assessment study of some aspects of impacts of sea level rise over some cities of the north coast have been carried out

• The government as well as news media and some NGOs, have been advocating problems of climate change in general, however still very limited awareness on potential large scale impacts of sea level rise in particular is available. A strong stakeholders and decision makers’ awareness program is necessary at least for most vulnerable areas.

• Even though the impact of climate change on large-scale national projects such as Tushka project, building new harbors on the Mediterranean and Red Seas may be tremendous, no assessment considerations of potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on these projects have been carried out.

• One of the recommended adaptation measures to salt water intrusion in the north coast is to increase areas of cultivation of rice so as to reduce salinity and push saline water towards the sea. Expansion in development of aquaculture on low land is another suggestion to make use of the


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land under the stress of inundation. The validity of these suggestions has not been tested and its implementation still remains to be carried out under surveillance of a strong monitoring system for accurate assessment and generalization. A strategic impact assessment of such suggestions has to be carried out.

• Even though some of the old cities such as Alexandria have used efficient water collection systems in the past, no collection systems are now implemented in any of the coastal cities. Few collection systems based on individual storage systems for rainwater exist on the north coast

4. National priorities

It is necessary to identify national priorities based on expected threats and potential adverse impacts on various sectors on the coastal zone.

1. Transfer of climate-friendly technologies for adaptation aspects are essential for Egypt to face the challenges posed by climate change to the coastal zone. Capacity building on vulnerability assessments and adaptation implementation are badly needed.

2. Establishing and strengthening nation-wide systematic observation and monitoring networks for baseline sea level changes, land use changes, and provide training in climate change modeling.

3. Building and developing a national Geographic data-base for collection, analysis, interpretation and dissemination of coastal data concerning climate change strategic impacts and adaptation technologies

4. Establishing of an awareness program among stakeholders, decision makers and NGOs in the coastal zone.

It is critical to focus future efforts on general issues of national priority; however, there are some specific localities in Egypt which are considered particularly vulnerable, and which have never been studied in sufficient depth and details. Some of these localities are listed below in no order:

• Nile Delta coastal zone/ coastal Governorates

• Lakes ecosystems/biodiversity

• Matruh and Siwa Oasis coastal region

• Coasts of Sinai and coastal protected areas

• Coral reef and ecosystems in the Red Sea and potential impact on tourism

• Water resources in the coastal zone

• Agricultural sector in the coastal zone

• Coastal cities, archaeology and tourism

• Human health in the coastal zone

• Socioeconomic systems in the coastal zone


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A prioritization program based on specific criteria must be established for addressing these and other related problems.

5. Adaptation options

It is well known that adaptation options could fall under three basic categories: planned retreat, accommodation and protection. Any action will be carried out under the condition of availability of proper information and awareness so that the response of the population can be favorable. In the case of Egypt, several options for adaptation on the coastal zone are available. However, open options are site and community specific. These options are:

• No action

• Beach nourishment and building groins

• Breakwaters and/or sea walls

• Development of legal regulations and setbacks

• Changes of land use planning

• Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM)

Several criteria are necessary to investigate before adopting any of these options. In addition, a strong institutional capability in monitoring, assessment and feedback must be established. This requires building capacities in several lines such as coastal monitoring techniques, coastal technologies, environmental planning, and communication networking, EIA and ICZM.

6. Needs for sustainable development

Sustainable development requires integration among various environmental, ecological, economic and social factors. Analysis of most important limiting factors for sustainable development in vulnerable regions has revealed the following points in no particular order:

6.1 Law enforcement

Law 4/94 has initiated many important points including the necessity to carry out and get approval for an Environmental Impact Assessment before a project is implemented. Many projects on coastal sensitive areas have already carried out EIA. However, there are many others, which were implemented without carrying out such requirement. Some of these projects on the coastal area have very far-reaching impacts on the whole coast. It is therefore necessary to develop means of large-scale identification, auditing and monitoring of such projects.

Monitoring of land use, erosional pattern coral reef and mangrove areas, immediate detection of oil spills and other pollution from land-based sources must be enforced. Changes of land use as well as noncompliance with regional and local planning should be detected. The mere availability of accurate reliable systems implies better compliance. Establishing of environmental management systems for harbors and other installations on the coastal zone must also be enforced.


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A revisit to the law is necessary in the near future to assess considerations and to include aspects, which were not included in the first version. Pollution control standards and fines must be reconsidered in view of recent alarming evidence of loss of resources and difficulties of enforcing measures.

6.2 Institutional capability/ networking

One of the major adaptation options is to reconsider land use plans in the coastal zone. In many cases an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan must be introduced and implemented. However, in the absence of proper monitoring and assessment network to various concerned authorities, the effort for planning will go in vane. Systems for monitoring and assessments as well as trained personnel are of main need for developing an institutional capability for monitoring. Of particular importance is the establishment of a system of computerized, high quality controlled tide gauges along the shoreline.

6.3 Center for land use monitoring, modeling and decision support

Regional climate change models and scenarios are prerequisites to any decision making concerning development or protection. Coastal zone models for prediction and assessment of impacts and risks of various activities on the coastal zone are necessary tools for coastal zone management. Building capacity in regional modeling, assessment and decision support systems is necessary. Development of a GIS based information center would be necessary for data collection, analysis, dissemination and interpretation.

6.4 Technology transfer, education and awareness programs

Programs of cleaner technology in which a technology transfer component is a major part, are necessary. International organizations such as UNIDO are invited to support such programs in industry. These programs must also be introduced in schools and university curricula. Programs of upgrading awareness in the coastal zone concerning management of fisheries, protection of health and role of women are very important.

6.5 Aquaculture alternatives and land use

A part of land use management and planning in the coastal zone is to encourage building and operation of aquaculture projects or rice cultivation on vulnerable land. These projects involve low technology and utilize the expertise and working power available, in addition to its potential impacts on soil and community. It will also involve upgrading food security, which is highly vulnerable in this area. This is particularly encouraged for areas of high tourism on the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. A strategic assessment of aquaculture expansion and its environmental implications has to be carried out.

6.6 Establishment of a sub-committee for ICZM for each lake

On the policy and management scales, a committee for coastal zone management has been established; however, it has been inactive. Activating the committee by involving NGO and research experts is necessary for development on the coastal zone. Initiating a local ICZM committee on the scale of each lake is also necessary for local policy development.

6.7 Greenbelt and agro-forestry

Impacts of the climate change on the coastal desert ecosystem such as those of northern Egypt may involve increased dust on urban areas, increased speed of sand dunes, increased desertification rates as well as increased salt-water intrusion.


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Many of the coastal areas of Egypt has grown drastically without due consideration to the delicate balance among various interactions among introduced systems, so that the western coastal zone has been fully urbanized by the so-called resort tourist villages. However, these villages lack considerations of tourism and attraction for inhabitants to live for more than two months a year. No consideration for providing services and proper utilization of the limited resources. Natives of the area have sold the land and shifted to the hinterland without any upgrading or change of their life structure. It is therefore necessary to find and promote small and medium projects to involve the community and utilize these resources.

It is suggested to promote establishing a green belt based on the use of treated wastewater from resort villages during the summer and rainwater during winter. The green belt should start by batches in the hinterland of each of the villages after enforcing water treatment and water quality. Initiation of a greenbelt has the following advantages

• Stabilizing soil and sand dune movement, reducing dust impact on the Nile delta and on Europe

• Mitigating CO2 impacts

• Reducing salt water intrusion

• Better utilizing rain water resources

• Utilizing manpower in the area

• Producing raw material to be manufactured and exported to other areas of the country or outside the country.

• Reducing costs of transporting material to the north coast and pollution during summer

6.8 Northern lakes management

Coastal and inland lakes constitute a very important ecosystem not only because of the environmental balance but also because of their high economic and tourist potential. An integrated lake management program for each lake has to be developed. With the near finalization of the International Coastal Road connecting most of these lakes, a program must be established for development of the lakes including community development, lake management, land use planning, monitoring and assessment.

Some of these lakes are polluted due to dumping of industrial waste from land-based sources. A program for reclaiming of these lakes and strong enforcement of environmental regulations must be established. It is suggested that an international tender based on BOOT could help cleaning and establishing tourism sites of special characteristics for these lakes.

Programs for reducing salinity and upgrading biodiversity of inland lakes, such as Lake Qarun, Rayyan Lakes and Natrun lakes must also be established. The coastal areas of these lakes suffer severely due to neglect and are expected to suffer more in the future due to increased evaporation with climate change, pollution and mismanagement, if no action is taken.

6.9 Water harvesting and wastewater treatment

Water resources in the coastal zone are mainly due to rain, which constitute about 150mm/year over the strip of the coastal zone. This amount of water is so far not utilized the best available technologies.


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It mostly evaporates, partly utilized for limited irrigation of some crops and partly infiltrates and stored in groundwater.

In view of the limited water resources in the coastal zone and high vulnerability due to salt-water intrusion, it is necessary to build capacity and establish systems for water harvesting, collection and storage. It is also necessary to study and improve already existing collection systems (such as Karma systems found in coastal areas of Borg Elarab and Matruh).

6.10 Better control of land based sources of pollution

Even in the presence of laws and regulations a lot of pollution still reaches the coastal area. This is mainly due to the lack of a strong monitoring and assessment capabilities. Not only domestic waste is dumped without treatment in many coastal areas, but also industrial waste with various types of hazardous and nonhazardous waste. A strong system for monitoring must be established. It is suggested that this system is based on high-resolution remote sensing techniques. With available of multispectral satellite images of 1m resolutions or better( or hyperspectral), such systems are now capable of identifying and assessing illegal sources of pollution.

6.11 Development of private, low technology, employment intensive opportunities

The development of low technology, small and medium size enterprises (MSE) at some coastal sites would be very important to absorb expected unemployed workers. Suggestions may include food industries, wood manufacturing industries, aquaculture, handcraft industries and services in tourist areas.

In addition, the general development of work opportunities in new industrial cities away from the coastal areas may help relief some of the pressures on the coastal zone and reduce its vulnerability to impacts of climate change

6.12 Establishment of an awareness campaign for decision makers, stakeholders and NGO

Socioeconomic considerations on the coastal zone are of prime importance. Decision makers and investors of the coastal zone must be aware of various risks of erosional problems and environmental laws of setback and EIA. They should also be made aware of expected impacts of climate change and their activities as well as control measures and monitoring systems observing their activities.

A program must be established to develop socio-economic scenarios and orient stakeholders (inhabitants, fishermen, businessmen, farmers, workers….) concerning problems of the coastal zone. Conservation of their cultural heritage is necessary, however with due consideration to various risks involved.

6.13 Research on salt tolerant plants, water treatment and reuse

Research support must be available for specific lines to promote development of some special areas of concern to the community adaptation. Cultivation and use of salt tolerant plants is of particular interest. Research on water desalination and treatment and re-use is also of special interest in view of shortages of water resources. Multidisciplinary institutes and education must generally be supported.

7. Analysis and prioritization of options for adaptation

The output of the country coastal vulnerability assessment is expected to identify hot sectors and hot spots in the coastal zone, based on the general concept:


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V=I - A

Where V is the vulnerability, I is the impact and A is the adaptation. Options of adaptation to expected sea level rise would then be tested and evaluated according to preset criteria. These options include but not limited to:

• No action

• Building hard structure

• Technology transfer

• ICZM

• Regulations and economic incentives and;

• Land use change (Establishing a greenbelt/ increase rice cultivation…).

• Bear the losses

• Research and restore

A general comparison among some of these options concerning general suitability and remedies of various options is carried out based on opinion of a group of experts on the coastal zone of Egypt. The following criteria were used for evaluating each option (El Raey et al, 1999), at a specific site:

Criteria for evaluation

1. Net benefits

2. Environmental impacts

3. Robustness and flexibility

4. Chance of success

5. Feasibility

6. Fairness

However, it should be stressed that this analysis is carried out for the purpose of illustration and that each option is site and community dependent i.e. these criteria should be imposed for the specific situation at hand. Positive and negative scores of various criteria are evaluated and compared to identify most suitable options.

Results are presented in Fig. (2). It indicates that:

1. Changes of land use (a greenbelt, rice cultivation or aquacultural development) and ICZM may be the best available strategic options for development of the new land on the coastal zone in view of impacts of climate change. The proper implementation of such option requires a strong monitoring and enforcement system.


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2. Development of a greenbelt and a water-harvesting program with associated low technology employment may be considered of high priority. In fact the two options are closely related.

3. Beach nourishment may be the best (cost effective) immediate option for protection of eroding beaches particularly on the Mediterranean Sea. However, it is not a permanent solution to the problem. A combination of breakwaters, groins and legal regulations may be effective for many sites as low technology low cost option.

4. Each of the above options should involve technology transfer, education and upgrading awareness. This is a component of each of the most important options of developing and integrated coastal zone management and development of a green belt program on the coastal zone.

5. Low technology and low cost are important factors for choice of various options.

A survey of already existing policy and measures taken by various authorities could be carried out. An assessment of each policy or measure taken, based on actual implementation, net benefit, effectiveness, cost, higher order impacts, fairness to stakeholders could be judged by a multidisciplinary team and the overall picture evaluated. An appropriate monitoring system must be established to ensure compliance to regulations and follow up of adaptation measures.


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Option summaryPC

BE

SC

EO

-E -D -C -B -A N A B C D E

2

4

6

8

10

12

NoAction


2

4

6

8

10

12

Hard.S


2

4

6

8

10

12

Techn.


2

4

6

8

10

12

ICZM


2

4

6

8

10

12

Regul


2

4

6

8

10

12

Greenblt


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8. Development of appropriate adaptation strategies

A large-scale program for implementation of suggested strategies must be developed in coordination with the EEAA and other appropriate authorities. This can be carried out through:

• Establishment of exit strategies for adaptation in coordination with the Ministry of Planning, Ministry of public works and Water Resources and Ministry of Tourism based on recent experience of climate variability

• Identification and Assessment of likely future trends based on regional scenarios with emphasis on socio-economic scenarios.

• Reviewing and analyzing legislation concerning development of coastal areas and introducing recommendations to authorities concerning revisit of the Environmental Law 4/94

• Development of an information database concerning investment in the coastal zone. Making data and information transparent to planning authorities, EIA experts and investors

• Carrying out programs of raising awareness of decision makers, stakeholders and NGOs concerning impacts of sea level rise. This should also cover decision makers in various planning authorities and various sectors such as water resources, agricultural resources, tourism, fisheries and….

• Identification of a coherent set of alternative policy options, priority measures and capacity building for more detailed analysis

• Following up implemented case studies, carrying out assessments and suggestions for improvements and disseminating information to various concerned authorities


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REFERENCES

Broadus, J., Milliman, J., Edwards, S., Aubrey, D. and Gable, F., Rising sea level and damming of Rivers possible effects in Egypt and Bangladesh In: Effect of changes of Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate, ed. J. Titus, EPA,1989.

Delft Hydraulics (1991); Implications of relative SLR on the development of lower Nile Delta, Egypt. Pilot study for a quantitative approach, Final report. CRI.

El Raey M, Frihy, O.; Nasr S.M; Dewidar Kh (1998); Vulnerability assessment of sea level rise over Port-Said Governorate , Egypt. Environ. Monit. Assess 56:113-128

El Raey Mohamed;Dia El Quosy; Mahmoud El Shaer; Osama El Kholy and Ayat Soliman (1996); Egypt: Inventory and mitigation options and vulnerability and adaptation assessment; Position paper; COP6, Berlin

El Raey, M. Y. Fouda and S. Nasr; (1997); GIS assessment of the vulnerability of Rosetta area, Egypt, in Impacts of Sea Rise; Environ Monit. Assess 47(1):59-77,

El Raey, M., Frihy, O., Nasr, S., Dewidar, Kh., (1998) Vulnerability assessment of sea level rise Port-Said Governorate, Egypt. Environ. Mon. Assess 56:113-125.

El Raey, M.; Kh. Dewidar and M. El Hattab; Adaptation to the Impacts of Sea level Rise in Egypt; Climate Research 12,117-128,1999

El Raey, M.; S. Nasr; Frihy, O.; S. El-Desouky and Kh. Dewidar(1995);Potential impacts of accelerated Sea Level Rise on Alexandria Governorate, Egypt;. J. Coast. Res 14,190-204.

El Raey, M.; (1997); Vulnerability assessment of the coastal zone of the Nile delta of Egypt to the impacts of sea level rise; Ocean and Coastal Management Vol. 37,pp29-40

Frihy O. E, Dewidar Kh, El Raey, M.;(1996) Evaluation of coastal problems at Alexandria, Egypt. Ocean Coast Manage 30:281-295

Sestini, G.; (1989); Implications of climate change for the Nile delta; report WG 2/14. UNEP/OCA. Nairobi

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