Early Warning Systems:Early Warning Systems:Climate Change and Climate Change and

EarthquakesEarthquakes

Mohamed El RaeyMohamed El RaeyUniversity of AlexandriaUniversity of Alexandria

AndAndCEDARECEDARE

Objectives of Early WarningObjectives of Early Warning

To be better prepared to To be better prepared to face challenges of the risk face challenges of the risk of long term or sudden of long term or sudden disasters by:disasters by:

1.1.Avoiding and reducing damages Avoiding and reducing damages and lossand loss

2.2.Saving human lives, health , Saving human lives, health , economic development and cultural economic development and cultural heritageheritage

3.3.Upgrading quality of life, public and Upgrading quality of life, public and international image international image

Intervention PhasesIntervention Phases

1.1. PreventionPrevention

2.2. PreparednessPreparedness

3.3. MitigationMitigation

4.4. ResponseResponse

5.5. RecoveryRecovery

Disasters

Disaster Cycle

Underdevelopment

Climate ChangeClimate Change

1.1. Increasing rates of emission of Greenhouse gases have Increasing rates of emission of Greenhouse gases have led to a measurable global average temperature increase led to a measurable global average temperature increase ( a global phenomena with local impacts)( a global phenomena with local impacts)

2.2. This is expected to lead to sea level rise, impact on water This is expected to lead to sea level rise, impact on water resources, impact on food productivity, and increased resources, impact on food productivity, and increased rates of dust and sea storms (all sectors of development rates of dust and sea storms (all sectors of development for all countries will be affected at varying magnitudes)for all countries will be affected at varying magnitudes)

3.3. Uncertainties of the phenomena have been removed. The Uncertainties of the phenomena have been removed. The only uncertainties that may exist is of magnitudes and only uncertainties that may exist is of magnitudes and time frames.time frames.

4.4. Action (governments, communities and individuals) is Action (governments, communities and individuals) is needed as early as possible so as to minimize future needed as early as possible so as to minimize future impacts. Any delays means extra lossesimpacts. Any delays means extra losses

Investigate Environment: A coastal Investigate Environment: A coastal area in Egyptarea in Egypt

Satellite classification of Land use of Satellite classification of Land use of AlexandriaAlexandria

Digital Digital Elevation Elevation Model of Model of AlexandriaAlexandria

Land use losses in Alexandria Land use losses in Alexandria CityCity

0.00010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.00070.00080.00090.000

Landuse classes

% a

rea

lost 50cm SLR

90 cm SLR

130 cm SLR

By the year 2100

0.00010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.00070.00080.00090.000

Landuse classes

% a

rea

lost 50cm SLR

90 cm SLR

130 cm SLR

By the year 2100

0.00010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.00070.00080.00090.000

Landuse classes

% a

rea

lost 50cm SLR

90 cm SLR

130 cm SLR

By the year 2100

Dust storms in the Red Dust storms in the Red SeaSea

Heavy investment on low areas in Heavy investment on low areas in BahrainBahrain

Stern ReportStern Report• The scientific evidence is now overwhelming:

climate change presents very serious global risks, and it demands an urgent global response.

• Climate change presents a unique challenge for economics: it is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen.

• From all of these perspectives, the evidence gathered by the Review leads to a simple conclusion: the benefits of strong, early action considerably outweigh the costs.

• The impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed - the poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and most. And if and when the damages appear it will be too late to reverse the process. Thus we are forced to look a long way ahead.

Needs for a National Needs for a National StrategyStrategy

• Build up an inventory and identify indicators of changes

• Build up a geo-data base and vulnerability assessments (locations, sectors, severity, life, health and economic losses)

• Set criteria for Indicators of performance and efficiency of Early Warning Systems

• Identify and assess options for proactive adaptation

• Disseminate Information and upgrade awareness and enforce policy

EarthquakesEarthquakes

Satellite Detection of Heat Satellite Detection of Heat StressesStresses

(days before earthquakes)(days before earthquakes)

Topside soundersTopside sounders Seismo-ionospheric couplingSeismo-ionospheric coupling

Compas-Vulcan programCompas-Vulcan program

Early Warning Systems for Early Warning Systems for EarthquakesEarthquakes

Examples of comparison Examples of comparison of daily variations of of daily variations of foF2 foF2 ((pointspoints) with their ) with their monthly median values monthly median values ((strokestroke), three days ), three days before and one day after before and one day after the earthquake. the earthquake.

By the data ofBy the data ofground-based stations of ground-based stations of vertical sounding for vertical sounding for various earthquakes:various earthquakes: 1-Milkovo (5.09.1971, 1-Milkovo (5.09.1971,18.35 UT, 18.35 UT, MM=7.2,);=7.2,); 2-Rome (23.11.1980, 2-Rome (23.11.1980, 18.34 UT, 18.34 UT, MM=6.7); =6.7); 3-Norfolk (19.06.1980,3-Norfolk (19.06.1980,08.34 UT, 08.34 UT, MM=6.4); =6.4); 4-Vanimo (16.07.1980, 4-Vanimo (16.07.1980, 05.26 UT, 05.26 UT, MM=7.3); =7.3); 5-Norfolk (14.07.1980,5-Norfolk (14.07.1980,16.15 UT, 16.15 UT, MM=6.6).=6.6). Arrows Arrows specify the specify the moments of earthquakesmoments of earthquakes

SPACE & GROUND SEGMENT CONCEPT

DATA PROCESSING CENTER

&COORDINATING AND ANALITICAL CENTER

ALTITUDE 500 km, i=79

ALTITUDE 1000 km

ALTITUDE 500 km, SSO

STATE CENTERFOR EARTHQUAKE

PREDICTIONS

ConclusionsConclusions

• Early Warning Systems (EWS) are necessary for minimizing Early Warning Systems (EWS) are necessary for minimizing risks of global and local hazards by taking decisions in the risks of global and local hazards by taking decisions in the proper timeproper time

• Building inventories, identifying and monitoring indicators Building inventories, identifying and monitoring indicators and assessing environmental conditions are prerequisites and assessing environmental conditions are prerequisites for vulnerability assessmentsfor vulnerability assessments

• Satellite systems provide important information source for Satellite systems provide important information source for EWS. The technology is improving on daily basis. However, EWS. The technology is improving on daily basis. However, ground monitoring may prove effective in some cases. ground monitoring may prove effective in some cases. Research is requiredResearch is required

• Responsibilities of establishing EWS is shared among NGO, Responsibilities of establishing EWS is shared among NGO, governments, communities and individualsgovernments, communities and individuals