El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds...

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El Nino Southern Oscillation

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Transcript of El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds...

Page 1: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

El Nino Southern Oscillation

Page 2: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

What’s this?

Page 3: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

“Normal” or “Neutral”

• Equatorial trade winds blow westward

• Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean

• Water is warmer in western Pacific Ocean

• Upwelling of colder water in eastern Pacific Ocean

• Normal precipitation patterns

Page 4: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.
Page 5: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.
Page 6: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

What is the jet stream?

• Current of air flowing 150 to 300 mph

• High in troposphere (about 10 km)

• Over the boundary between 2 air masses

• Usually blows from west to east

• Aircraft can use or avoid a jet stream

Page 7: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

RETURN OPTIONS:   BASIC GRAPHICS MODE   |   LIMITED GRAPHICS MODE   |  

FULL GRAPHICS MODE

US National Weather Monday

                                          

Monday US Jet Stream Forecast

                                          

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US National Weather Wednesday

                                          

Wednesday US Jet Stream Forecast

                                         

Page 9: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

What causes the jet stream?

• The temperature difference between 2 air masses

• The greater the temperature difference, the faster the jet stream

• Seasons can cause the jet stream to shift position. Also ENSO.

Page 10: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.
Page 11: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.
Page 12: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

El Nino

• Tradewinds slow and/or stop

• Warm water covers more of equator

• No upwelling in eastern Pacific Ocean (collapse of fishing industry in Peru)

• Global change in weather patterns

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NOAA / PMEL / TAO Project Office / El Niño Theme Page What are La Niña, El Niño and Normal Conditions

in the tropical Pacific Ocean?

La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatues in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.

These are graphics of the Reynolds Sea Surface Temperature (SST) analysis from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) for the entire Pacific Ocean (70N to 70S). Also see plots of the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (the amount that the temperature differs from the normal value for the month). Also available is a graph of sea surface temperature for the entire Pacific Ocean.

See What is La Nina?Go to the El Niño Theme Page [email protected] Disclaimer | Privacy Policy

Page 14: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.
Page 15: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

                                                                                                                                                    

                                El Niño effect during December through February.

Page 16: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.
Page 17: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

La Nina

• Increased velocity of westward tradewinds

• Colder water along more of equator (eastern end)

• Global change in weather patterns

Page 18: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.
Page 19: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.
Page 20: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

                                                                                                                                                    

                                La Niña effect during December through February.

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La Niña effect during June through August.

 Back:  El Niño

Page 22: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.
Page 23: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

How to forecast the ENSO cycle?

Need info about SST, ocean temperatures at depth, and winds

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Array of TAO/TRITON

• Approximately 70 moorings w/about 400 buoys

• Completed Dec 1994 after 10 years

• 17 ships on 83 cruises from 6 countries (multi-national)

• In Oct 1999, Japan assumed responsibility for western Pacific moorings (TRITON)

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TAO/TRITON

• Tropical Atmosphere & Ocean

• Motivated by 1982-83 El Nino event

Page 26: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.
Page 27: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.
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Array configuration

    

 

             

                                                                                    

                                                                                                      

Home | Project overview | Data display | Data delivery | El Niño & La Niña | Site map

Page 29: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

A warning to vandals

Page 30: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

Moored Buoys of the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean Array

                                               

            What is the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean

Page 31: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

Data from TAO/TRITON

• Wind velocity

• SST (sea surface temperatures)

• Air temp

• 10 sub-surface temperatures to a depth of 500 meters

Page 32: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.
Page 33: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.
Page 34: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

Put the TAO/TRITON data into a computer model

Now can forecast path of storm track

Page 35: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

                                                       

   Note that the location of the jetstream is influenced by the location of the convection, e.g. the main mean jetstream for La Niña starts to the left of the normal scenario. These are the teleconnections to our mid-latitude weather.

Page 36: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

Benefits of accurate ENSO forecasts

(hopefully, with predictions up to one year)

Page 37: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

Drought forecasts

• Preparation for wildfires

• Cultivation of drought-tolerant crops

• Plan food distribution in developing countries

Page 38: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

Forecast of Excessive Precipitation

• Preparation for extremes: hurricanes, tornadoes, etc

• Preparation for local flooding: mudslides

• Mosquito control in malarial zones

• Planting of wet-tolerant crops

Page 39: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

Forecast of change in ocean temperatures

• Predict profitable fishery sites

• Monitor health of coral reef ecosystems

Page 40: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

Economic benefits from forecasts

• Adjust the production of weather-related goods: vehicles, clothing, shelter

• Adapt use of recreational facilities: skiing, snowboarding, boating

• Prepare for fluctuations in consumption of home-heating fuels

Page 41: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

Review

What is ENSO?

Page 42: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

ENSO

• The El Nino-Southern Oscillation Cycle• During normal years, equatorial trades

blow west• Ocean is 0.5 m higher & warmer in

western Pacific• Upwelling currents in eastern Pacific• 20 – 30 cm annual precip in San Diego• (8 to 12 inches)

Page 43: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

b. Normal scenario

                                                              

    

Page 44: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

What happens during El Nino?

Page 45: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

                                                             

    

Page 46: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.
Page 47: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

What happens during La Nina?

Page 48: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

                                                              

    

Page 49: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.
Page 50: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.
Page 51: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

                                                       

   Note that the location of the jetstream is influenced by the location of the convection, e.g. the main mean jetstream for La Niña starts to the left of the normal scenario. These are the teleconnections to our mid-latitude weather.

Page 52: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

Search NOAA

For more info about ENSO

Page 53: El Nino Southern Oscillation. What’s this? “Normal” or “Neutral” Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water “piles up” in western Pacific Ocean Water.

The end


Chapter 4 – Westward Expansion #3 Westward Expansion.

Chapter 4 – Westward Expansion #3 Westward Expansion.

Westward expansion

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2015 Westward

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On the nutrient distribution and phytoplankton biomass in the Gulf …horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/divers17-07/... · equatorial westward recirculation of equatorial

On the nutrient distribution and phytoplankton biomass in the Gulf …horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/divers17-07/... · equatorial westward recirculation of equatorial

Cold, keV, & MeV ion signatures of westward moving auroral bulge at L=4 in equatorial plane

Cold, keV, & MeV ion signatures of westward moving auroral bulge at L=4 in equatorial plane

Looking Westward

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) to replace the warmer surface water that was pushed westward. During an El Niño event, these westward-blowing winds get weaker. As a result, warmer water does not get pushed westward

) to replace the warmer surface water that was pushed westward. During an El Niño event, these westward-blowing winds get weaker. As a result, warmer water does not get pushed westward

Climate change and water security: Impacting decision-making processes on water management in the Equatorial Nile Basin?

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Westward & Eleonora

Westward & Eleonora

Antarctic Bottom Water Flux in the Equatorial Western ...€¦ · Antarctic Bottom Water into a westward flow along the equator. From McCartney and Curry (1993), data taken in 1983

Antarctic Bottom Water Flux in the Equatorial Western ...€¦ · Antarctic Bottom Water into a westward flow along the equator. From McCartney and Curry (1993), data taken in 1983

Westward Expansion!

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Chapter 5: Other Major Current Systems. Key Points: Summary of Chapter 5 Components of the equatorial current system include: westward flowing N,S equatorial.

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Sea Surface Salinity Observations with Lagrangian Drifters ... · itude of the SSS maximum, by north-westward-flowing surface waters orig-inating from equatorial upwelling and wind-induced

Sea Surface Salinity Observations with Lagrangian Drifters ... · itude of the SSS maximum, by north-westward-flowing surface waters orig-inating from equatorial upwelling and wind-induced

Diagnostic of the diurnal cycle of turbulence of the ... · over the equatorial basin, is responsible for the main-tenance of the westward equatorial undercurrent (EUC). The EUC core

Diagnostic of the diurnal cycle of turbulence of the ... · over the equatorial basin, is responsible for the main-tenance of the westward equatorial undercurrent (EUC). The EUC core

Westward Movement!

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CLIMAS QUENTES CLIMA EQUATORIAL. CLIMA EQUATORIAL GRÁFICO TERMOPLUVIOMÉTRICO.

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Dynamics of logging in Solomon Islands: The need for ... Asia-Pacific islands, ranging from Malaysia to the Solomon Islands and westward across the equatorial Pacific, have experienced

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Interannual Variations of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal ...E-mail: hteng@hawaii.edu a 10–20-day westward-propagating mode is noted in the off-equatorial Asian summer monsoon region

Interannual Variations of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal ...E-mail: [email protected] a 10–20-day westward-propagating mode is noted in the off-equatorial Asian summer monsoon region

Super- and sub-rotating equatorial jets in shallow … and sub-rotating equatorial jets in shallow water ... equatorial jet, while decay due to Rayleigh friction leads to a ... waves

Super- and sub-rotating equatorial jets in shallow … and sub-rotating equatorial jets in shallow water ... equatorial jet, while decay due to Rayleigh friction leads to a ... waves

MANIFEST DESTINY WESTWARD EXPANSION WESTWARD EXPANSION.

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