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Climate change and water
security: Impacting decision-
making processes on water
management in the Equatorial
Nile Basin?
Nina Hissen, PhD Researcher
Outline
• Research Interest
• Water Management in the Nile Basin
• Embedded Case Study: The Equatorial Nile and
the Mara River Basin
• Theoretical Concepts
• Research Questions and Methods
• Preliminary Results
• Research Limitations
• Conclusions and Outlook
Research Interest
• Unravel decision-making processes of
transboundary water resources management
• Implications of water security and climate
change for water management in the Nile Basin
• Improve climate change adaptation of water
resources management
Water management in the Nile Basin
Owen Falls Dam, Jinja, UG
Photo by Malcolm McCrow
(World Bank, 2000)
The Equatorial Nile Basin and Mara
River Basin
Lake Victoria, Kampala
Lake Victoria Basin, (World Resources Institute,
2002)
Theoretical concepts
• (Environmental) Governance (Biermann et al. 2009)
▫ Integrated system of formal and informal
institutions
▫ Multiple levels of institutions relevant for decision-
making (local, national, international)
▫ Constructivist approach: Actors and institutional
structure mutually influence each other and
decision-making
Theoretical Concepts
• Climate Change Discourse (CCD) ( Hulme, 2009)
▫ “specific ensemble of ideas, concepts and categorization that are produced, reproduced and transformed in a particular set of practices and through which meaning is given to physical and social realities” (Hajer, 1995)
▫ Physical impacts of climate change vs. perceptions ofclimate change
▫ Relevance of policy discourses for political decision-making: CC on regional policy agendas: e.g. NAPAs, CC
strategies
Interest in climate adaptation funds
▫ But high uncertainty about CC, lack of understanding,
Theoretical Concepts
• Water security (Grey and Sadoff, 2007)
▫ Availability
▫ Quantity and Quality of water
▫ Water for health, livelihoods, ecosystems,
production
▫ Acceptable water-related risks (people,
environment, economies)
• Securitization of water resources (Brauch 2009; Buznan et
al 1998)
▫ Water insecurity results in the securitization of the
resource i.e. making water a matter of national
security
Research Questions
and Methods
Masai Mara Reserve, Kenya
How are emerging
discourses around water
security and climate
change taking shape in the
EQNB?!
How does the
interaction between
transboundary and
national institutions
shape water
management decisions
in the EQNB?!
How could water
management
decisions relate to
water security in
the context of
delivering
adaptation to
climate change?!
What is the relationship between water governance and water management decisions in the Equatorial
Nile Basin (EQNB) in the context of water securitization and climate change?
!
How does the
discourse on water
security and
climate change
influence water
management
decisions?!
! "#
$%"#
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Methods
• Semi-structured interviews
• Institutional mapping
• Q-sorts (small N)
• Focus group
• Observations
(Preliminary)
Empirical Results
Mara Basin Office,
Mulot
Climate Change Discourse
• Dominant policy discourse presents climate change as:
▫ CC impacts are already felt today
▫ Therefore climate change adaptation and mitigatingfuture impacts is essential
▫ Most water managers did not distinguish betweenadaptation and mitigation
• Strong link to Green Growth Paradigm
▫ Tension between sustainable development andoptimal climate change adaptation/mitigation
▫ Development paradigm is dominant over climatechange adaptation
Climate Change Policy
• Large gap between discourse on climate change
and policy implementation
▫ Climate change adaptation is still in its infancy
▫ Regional differences in development and
implemenation of climate policies
▫ Climate change financing as a key concern
▫ Climate change policies a mere lip service?
CCD and water management in the
Nile• Climate Change as a proxy to access funds
▫ Current state of the Nile Basin Initiative: future
uncertain
▫ Main funding from the World Bank ran out this
year
▫ Hightened talk about climate change adaptation
and mitigation among NBI officials
▫ Focus on accessing climate change adaptation
funds
12.09.2012
Actors’ map of Mara River Basin
Sustainable
water
management
Secondary actors
StatePrivate
sector
Civil society
Primary actors
Key actors
WRMA
WRUAs (KE)
Tourismindustry
WWF
USAID
GLOWS
Large-scalefarmers
LVBC
NELSAP
ProMara
SteeringCommittee
CARE Int.
BasinCommittee(TZ)
Mining Industry
WRUAs (TZ)
Research Limitations
• The results are so far only preliminary. A thourough analysis of the data needs to follow.
• Interviews were conducted mainly with expertsand policy makers. Hence there is a bias in theresearch towards the policy level.
• Very small N for the Q-sort based interviews.▫ Difficult to motivate interviewees to participate.
• The discourse analyzed is a highly specializeddiscourse amongst water experts, rather thanthe broad public climate change discourse in theregion.
Conclusions
• Gap between climate change experts and water
management experts
• Water managers know about climate change but
often the causal links are not clear
• This poses a threat to successful climate
change adaptation of water resources
• Despite that, no evidence for climate change
increasing political conflict over water in the
EQNB!
Thank you!
Lake Victoria, Uganda
References• Biermann, F., Betsill, M.M., Gupta, J., Kanie, N., Lebel, L., Liverman, D., Schroeder,
H. and Siebenhüner, B. 2009: Earth System Governance: People, Places and the
Planet. Science and Implementation of the Earth System Governance Project. Earth
System Governance Project Report, Bonn: IHDP.
• Brauch, H.G. 2009: Securitizing Global Environmental Change. In Brauch, H.G.,
Oswald Spring, Ú., Grin, J., Mesjasz, C., Kameri-Mbote, P., Behera, N.C., Chourou,
B. and Krummenacher, H., editors, Facing Global Envrionmental Change.
Environmental, Human, Energy, Food, Health and Water Security Concepts, Berlin,
Heidelberg, 65-102.
• Buznan, B., Wæver, O. and de Wilde, J. 1998: Security: A New Framework for
Analysis. London.
• Grey, D. and Sadoff, C.W. 2007: Sink or Swim? Water security for growth or
development. Water Policy 9, 545-571.
• Hajer, M. A. 1995: The Politics of Environmental Discourse: Ecological Modernization
and the Policy Process
• Hulme, M. 2009: Why we disagree about climate change. Understanding
controversey, inaction and opportunity. Cambridge.
• World Bank 2000: Nile River Basin Map.
• World Resources Institute 2002: Nile Watershed: Lake Victoria Subbasin.