Effects of Projected Climate Change on the Hydrology of...
Transcript of Effects of Projected Climate Change on the Hydrology of...
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Alan F. Hamlet
•JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group
•Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
Effects of Projected Climate Change
on the Hydrology of the Pacific
Northwest and Cascade Mountain
Range
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University of Washington Research Team
Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project
Lara Whitely Binder
Pablo Carrasco
Jeff Deems
Marketa McGuire Elsner
Alan F. Hamlet
Carrie Lee
Se-Yeun Lee
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Jeremy Littell
Guillaume Mauger
Nate Mantua
Ed Miles
Kristian Mickelson
Philip W. Mote
Rob Norheim
Erin Rogers
Eric Salathé
Amy Snover
Ingrid Tohver
Andy Wood
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A Few Points Regarding
Natural Climate Variability
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An
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Mean
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cfs
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Annual
5 yr mean
10 yr mean
Linear (Annual)
Naturalized Flow in the Columbia River at The Dalles, OR
Climate Varies on Centennial, Decadal, and Interannual Time Scales
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A history of the PDO
warm cool
warm
A history of ENSO
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Pacific Decadal Oscillation El Niño Southern Oscillation
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Global Climate Change Scenarios
for the PNW
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IPCC Emissions Scenarios
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Mote, P.W. and E. P. Salathe Jr., 2010: Future climate in the Pacific Northwest, Climatic
Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9848-z
21st Century Climate Impacts for the Pacific Northwest Region
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Seasonal Precipitation Changes for the Pacific Northwest
http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/wacciach1scenarios642.pdf
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Hydrologic Projections
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Snow Model
Schematic of VIC Hydrologic Model
• Sophisticated, fully distributed,
physically based hydrologic model
• Widely used globally in climate
change applications
• 1/16 Degree Resolution
(~5km x 6km or ~ 3mi x 4mi)
General Model Schematic
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http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/
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Watershed Classifications:
Transformation From Snow to Rain
Map: Rob Norheim, CIG
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Impacts to the Stehekin River Basin
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Snow Flow
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Soil Moisture
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Snow Flow
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Soil Moisture
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Changes in Hydrologic Extremes
http://www.nps.gov/mora/parknews/upload/floodPP.pdf
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Q100 7Q10
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2040s Changes in Flood Risk
(Cowlitz at Packwood)
A1B B1
Historical
10 Member Ensemble
Using the Hybrid Delta
Downscaling Approach
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Freezing Level
Schematic of a Cool Climate Flood
Precipitation
Produces Snow
Precipitation
Produces Snow
Precipitation
Produces Runoff
Snow Melt
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Freezing Level
Schematic of a Warm Climate Flood
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n
Pro
du
ce
s S
no
w
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n
Pro
duces S
now
Precipitation
Produces Runoff
Snow Melt
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A1B B1
2040s Changes in Extreme Low
Flows (Cowlitz at Packwood)
Historical
10 Member Ensemble
Using the Hybrid Delta
Downscaling Approach
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PNW Glaciers
are rapidly
receding.
Some, like
Lillian Glacier
in the ONP, are
already gone.
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Loss of glacial mass is
expected to intensify low
flow impacts related to loss
of snowpack
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Access Related Impacts
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Littell, J.S., E.E. Oneil, D. McKenzie, J.A. Hicke, J.A. Lutz, R.A. Norheim, and M.M.
Elsner. 2010. Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington
State, USA. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 129-158, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9858-x
Forest Disturbance
Projected Area Burned in WA
2010
Stehekin
Fires
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Damage to Roads from River Flooding
Cascade River Road, 2006
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http://www.nps.gov/mora/parknews/upload/flooddamagev3.pdf
Nisqually River at Sunshine Point (Nov, 2006)
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http://www.abbegeomorphology.com/?p=69
Sediment Impacts
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Changing Landslide Risks
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Winter Road Closures and Snow Removal
Plowing the Road at Hurricane Ridge
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Winter Recreation
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Summer Recreation
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Lake Recreation