Effects of El Nino on Effects of El Nino on the South Pacific the South Pacific

IslandsIslands

Virginia SmithCE 394K.3, GIS in Water Resources Term Project Presentation

University of Texas at Austin

What is an El Nino?What is an El Nino?

An oscillation of the An oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere ocean-atmosphere system in the system in the tropical Pacifictropical Pacific

Causes global Causes global weather alterationsweather alterations

Typically occur Typically occur every 3-7 yearsevery 3-7 years

““The Christ Child”The Christ Child”

Forming an El NinoForming an El Nino

Easterlies blow water to the western Easterlies blow water to the western PacificPacific

Warm water collectsWarm water collects Trade winds relax and rainfall patterns Trade winds relax and rainfall patterns

begin to shiftbegin to shift Thermocline is depressed in the eastern Thermocline is depressed in the eastern

Pacific and elevated in the westPacific and elevated in the west Rainfall follows the warm water eastwardRainfall follows the warm water eastward

Impacts of an El NinoImpacts of an El Nino

Increase in rain in Increase in rain in Americas (flooding, Americas (flooding, landslides)landslides)

Decrease in rain in Decrease in rain in west Pacific west Pacific (droughts, crop (droughts, crop failure and fires)failure and fires)

Fluctuation in Fluctuation in Pacific temperature Pacific temperature (marine life (marine life dramatically hurt)dramatically hurt)

CyclonesCyclones

CyclonesCyclonesCyclones in the Tropical Pacific

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91

Number of Storm Days

Win

d S

pee

ds

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Small Island nations…like Small Island nations…like SamoaSamoa

Agricultural baseAgricultural base FisheriesFisheries Limited InfrastructureLimited Infrastructure Destructive cyclonesDestructive cyclones Increase in DiseaseIncrease in Disease

Benefits of PredictionBenefits of Prediction

Social benefitsSocial benefits Economic opportunities for Economic opportunities for

agriculture, fisheries, forestry and agriculture, fisheries, forestry and energyenergy

Water harvestingWater harvesting Prediction for disease outbreakPrediction for disease outbreak

Predicting an El NinoPredicting an El Nino Conditions in the tropical Pacific can Conditions in the tropical Pacific can

predict climate variations on a short predict climate variations on a short term basisterm basis Surface sea temperature (SST), sea level Surface sea temperature (SST), sea level

analysis, and monitoring winds, analysis, and monitoring winds, temperature, and air pressure temperature, and air pressure

Using satellites, moored buoys, Using satellites, moored buoys, drifting buoys and island data drifting buoys and island data

Difficult to predictDifficult to predict

Surface Sea TempSurface Sea Temp

Sea Level Variations by Sea Level Variations by CountryCountry

What’s Happening TodayWhat’s Happening Today

Groups disagree if Groups disagree if we are entering an we are entering an El Nino or feeling El Nino or feeling the effects of global the effects of global warmingwarming

More cyclonesMore cyclones Higher SSTHigher SST West sea surface West sea surface

slightly higherslightly higher

Any Questions?Any Questions?