Effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle: Flood ... · Climate impacts on the...

1

13th November 2006 GOCE-CT-2004-505420

Effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle: Flood risk

management Dr. Steven Wade & Prof. Paul SamuelsHR Wallingford

European Commission COP12 Side Event Climate change and the impact on waterNovember 13th 2006, EU Pavilion

13th November 2006 www.floodsite.net 2

Climate impacts on the hydrological cycle and rising sea levels

Evidence of intensification of the global hydrological cycle (e.g. Huntington, 2005)Increase in intense rainfall and floods in some regions Some estimate 150 - 200 million people displaced by the middle of the century due to rising sea levels, more frequent floods and more intense droughts (Stern Review, 2006)

Source: Stern, 2006

2


Changes between the control period (1961-1990) and future projection (2070-2099). HIRHAM, 12 km spatial resolution, SRES A2 scenario

Impacts of climate change in EuropeWarmer and wetter winters Increase in magnitude and frequency of intense rainfall

After Feyen (2006)


UK changes in rainfall and river flows (2020s A2 – based on 6 GCMs, Vidal and Wade, 2006)

3


Flash Flooding


Lowland Flooding

4


Estuary flooding


Human impactsLargest risk to life in an event

Storm surgeMost frequent cause of fatalities

Flash FloodsLargest scale of evacuation

Major river basin floodsGreatest economic damage

Major city?

5


ScalesCatchments

less than 20 km2 to over 200,000 km2

Storm surgeRegional (Atlantic) to multinational (N Sea)

Time scale (development / warning / duration)

Minutes - pluvial in urban areasHours – flash floods, surgesDays – major basins, surgesWeeks - E.g. Elbe and Odra floods


Major natural disasters 1950-2002

6


Source: European

Environment Agency

River floods 1998-2002


Impacts of some European Floods

1953 DE,NL,UK N Sea 2200+ ? ? C1994 IT R.Po 64 10,000 12.5 F,P1995 DE, NL Rhine 28 200,000? 3.5 P1997 IT Sarno 300 ? ? F1997 CZ, PL Odra 100 200,000 4.5 F,P2002 CZ, DE Elbe 37 85,000+ 21.1 F,P2003 FR Rhône 6 27,000 0.7 F

Damages in € BillionC - Coastal surge, F - Flash flood, P - Lowland Plains flood

Date Countries Location Deaths Evacuees Damage Type

7


FLOODsite OverviewEC grant to budget of €10 MillionComplemented by other fundsStart date 1 March 2004Duration of 5 years35 “Tasks”36 PartnersOver 150 research team members13 Countries (BE, CZ, DE, ES, FR, GR, HU, IT, NL, PL, PT, SE, UK)


Project VisionOur research will improve the management of flood risks in the EU and more broadly. FLOODsite will benefit the citizens of Europe, by reducing flood risks and improving resilience in the face of floods. The partners will work together to implement the research results in practice.The team will produce peer-reviewed scientific publications from their research

8


Theme 1 – Advancing Scientific Knowledge & Understanding

Theme 1 – Advancing Scientific Knowledge & Understanding

Project StructureTh

eme

6 –

Proj

ect

Net

wor

king

& H

arm

onis

atio

nThem

e 7 –Project M

anagement

Theme 5 – Training ActivitiesKnowledge Transfer, Training and Uptake, Guidance & Tools

Theme 3 – Integration(Rivers, Estuaries & Coasts)

Theme 4 – Pilot Application SitesEstuaries

Rivers &

estuaries Coas

ts &

est

uari

es

Ris

k A

nal

ysis

1.1 – Hazard (Sources)

1.2 – Hazard (Pathways)

1.3 – Vulnerability: receptor exposure & consequences

Theme 2 – Innovative Mitigation & Sustainable Management

Risk M

anagem

ent

2.1 – Pre-Flood Measures

2.2 – Flood Event Management

2.3 – Post-Event Activities


Shared definition of risk

Risk = Probability “x” Consequence

Hazard(intensity,

probability)

Vulnerability(social, economic,ecological values,

susceptibility)

Risk(probability of

social, economic and ecological

damages)

Exposure

9


Flood Risk Analysis Pathway(e.g. beach, defence and floodplain)

Source(river or sea)

Receptor(e.g. people in the floodplain)


Flood Risk Management Practice

Post-flood measures

Flood event measures

Real time risk management

Pre-flood measures Preventive risk management

Forecasting and warning, reservoir control, evacuation, rescue, etc.

Spatial planning, contingency plans,

flood defence (mitigation) measures,

asset management insurance,

preparedness, etc.

Relief, clean-up, reconstruction, regeneration,

etc.

10


hydrological

cycle

socio-economic system

Defences

vulnerability

exposureland use

climate

flood hazard

Interactions in flood risk systemFlood R

isk

After Feyen (2006)


Flood research challengesData

European data on these extreme eventsMulti-hazards

Debris and sediments in floods– Generation, transport, fate, pollutantsJoint probability of occurrenceManagement options

Uncertainty assessment and modellingInfrastructure performance

Condition assessment, real-time of strength

11


Flood research challengesFlood movement in urban areas

All sources of water, pathogens, pollutants, system performance under climate change

Scenarios for hazard and riskLinking social, governance, technology & policy scenarios; scaling issues, feed-backs

Socio-economic and institutional factorsLink to spatial planning & land use, adaptive strategies, resilience, tolerable risk

Implementation of research knowledge


Pilot Study Sitesof FLOODsite

1

1. River Elbe Basin

2. River Tisza Basin

3. Flash flood Basins

4. River Thames Estuary

5. River Scheldt Estuary

6. River Ebro Delta Coast

7. German Bight Coast

5

7

2

4

6

3

12


Foreseen productsBest Practice Guide on Flood risk Analysis and Flood Risk Management aimed at communicating all the relevant findingsPublic education material (= summary)Book on pilots foreseen (Schanze (ed.))

Well-functioning website (www.floodsite.net)Games, role plays a/o public DSS-demos

FLOODmaster (master courses Dresden & Padova)


Networking and disseminationMapped the project links

About 150 projectsNational and EUIn dialogue with CRUE

Communication and dissemination planRecognises 7 categories of “user”Different dissemination routesUptake and implementation is separate

13


Relationship to EU (proposal) directive for flood risk management

Preliminary assessment (Art. 4-6), e.g.Likelihood of future floods Consequences of floods security of flood defences

Flood risk maps (Art. 7 & 8), a.o.Guidelines on flood hazard mapping Flood probabilityProjected depths and velocityPotential damages

Flood risk management plans (Art.9 to 12), incl.The flood risk management cycle Preparedness Spatial planning and land use International rivers


FLOODsite: What are the benefits?Robust and defensible policyImproved public safety

Reduction of riskMitigation of residual risks

More reliable methodsBetter use of expenditure

On researchOn operation and maintenanceOn design and construction

14


Limpopo

Zambezi

Save

Xai Xai

Mozambique


Implementation of flood risk management

15


To conclude …Europe is leading the world with FLOODsiteFLOODsite will improve the management of all types of floodingHowever ...

Floods are natural and randomWe cannot eliminate floods but we can prepare for themFLOODSite will provide tools for adapting to climate change For further information www.floodsite.net


www.floodsite.net

[email protected]

Effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle: Flood ... · Climate impacts on the...

Documents

Transcript of Effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle: Flood ... · Climate impacts on the...