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Economic Outlook Joe Cortright March 2007

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The Two Scariest Words in School

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Pop Quiz

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College Attainment Question 1. What percent of adult Oregonians have completed a four-year college degree?

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College Attainment Question 1. What percent of adult Oregonians have completed a four- year college degree? Answer: 27.7% (American Community Survey, 2005)

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High School Graduation Question 2. What percent of adult Oregonians have only a high school diploma, or less education? (What percent have no education beyond high school)?

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High School Graduation Question 2. What percent of adult Oregonians have only a high school diploma, or less education? (What percent have no education beyond high school)? Answer: 38.8% (American Community Survey, 2005)

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Returns to Education Question 3. Each year, how much more does the typical 4-year college graduate earn than the typical person with just a high school diploma?

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Returns to Education Question 3. Each year, how much more does the typical 4-year college graduate earn than the typical person with just a high school diploma? Answer: 83% More High school graduate only: $27,915 4-year College Degree: $51,206 (Current Population Survey, 2003)

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Annual Earnings (Inflation-adjusted) 1975

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Annual Earnings (Inflation-adjusted) 2003

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Who Pays Taxes Question 4. One-third of all Oregon households have at least one household member with a four-year college degree. What fraction of Oregon income tax revenues are paid by these households?

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Who Pays Taxes Question 4. One-third of all Oregon households have at least one household member with a four-year college degree. What fraction of Oregon income tax revenues are paid by these households? Answer: 55% (Impresa estimates from OPS and IRS data)

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Public Expenditures: Health Question 5. What fraction of the adult enrollees in the Oregon Health Plan have a high school diploma or less education?

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Public Expenditures: Health Question 5. What fraction of the adult enrollees in the Oregon Health Plan have a high school diploma or less education? Answer: 62%. (Impresa estimates from OPS data)

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Public Expenditures: Corrections Question 6. What fraction of the inmates in the Oregon Correctional system have a high school diploma or less education?

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Public Expenditures: Corrections Question 6. What fraction of the inmates in the Oregon Correctional system have a high school diploma or less education? Answer: 72% (Impresa estimates from OPS data)

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Public Expenditures: Unemployment Question 7. What percentage of persons drawing unemployment insurance payments in Oregon have just a high school diploma or less education?

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Public Expenditures: Unemployment Question 7. What percentage of persons drawing unemployment insurance payments in Oregon have just a high school diploma or less education? Answer: 71% (Impresa estimates from Oregon Employment Department data)

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Nearly 3/4 ths of UI Claimants have less than only a High School Diploma or less education (Data courtesy Oregon Employment Department)

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Civic Participation Question 8. How much more likely are persons with a 4-year college degree to vote than those with just a high school diploma?

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Civic Participation Question 8. How much more likely are persons with a 4-year college degree to vote than those with just a high school diploma? Answer: 59% more likely High School Graduate: 43.3% 4 Year College Graduate 68.7% (Adults 25 to 44, Current Population Survey, 2004 Election)

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Diversity Question 9. What fraction of the kids who will enter Kindergarten in Oregon next year are Hispanic?

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Diversity Question 9. What fraction of the kids who will enter Kindergarten in Oregon next year are Hispanic? Answer: About one in six (17%) (American Community Survey)

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Global High School Question 10: What fraction of the worlds population will attend secondary school?

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Global High School Question 10: What fraction of the worlds population will attend secondary school? Answer: Three in Five. 60% of the worlds population will attend secondary school. Secondary School is nearly universal in Europe, Korea, Japan & 70% in China, 64% in Mexico, 60% in Brazil, 50% in India.

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Worldwide College Attendance Question 11. What percentage of the worlds college students attend classes in the United States?

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Worldwide College Attendance Question 11. What percentage of the worlds college students attend classes in the United States? Answer: US Accounts for just 16% - -14 million of worlds 88 million -- college students

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State Per Capita Income Drivers Question 12: Whats the biggest single factor determining differences in state per capita income A. Tax Levels B. Business Climate C. Bill Gates D. % of Adults with a 4-Year Degree

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D. % of Adults with a Four-Year Degree

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Education matters Drives personal income Contributes to state revenue Lack of education drives state costs Education increases civic engagement Ethnic and gender diversity increasing Global competitiveness

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A Seismic Shift in Labor Markets Last 30 Years Boomers enter prime work years Womens labor market participation nearly doubles Educational attainment up sharply = Labor Surplus Next 30 Years Boomers retire; many early Womens labor market participation plateaus Educational attainment plateaus = Labor Shortage

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For More Information www.ImpresaConsulting.com