Cortright: Oregon Economic Outlook

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Joe Cortright's October 2009 presentation on the outlook for the Oregon economy.

Transcript of Cortright: Oregon Economic Outlook

  • 1. Outlook for the Northwest EconomyJoe Cortright October 2009

2. Synopsis

  • The national economic outlook
  • Implications for the Northwest
  • From recession to recovery
  • A foundation for the future

3. National Economic Situation

  • Housing collapse
  • Financial meltdown credit freeze
  • Recession started in December 2007 already longer than the average post WWII recession

4. Job growth slowing since 2006 National data 5. Were in a recession again

  • Brad DeLong Arrows chart

6. A Different Kind of Recession

  • An Asset Bubble
    • Housing Collapse
  • Speculative Finance
    • Deregulation, too big to fail
    • Multiplied the shock
    • Accommodative Fed
  • Punctured by Energy Prices
    • Running up against real limits

7. Last September . . .

  • Financial Markets Wiley Coyote Moment

Dow Industrials 8. An abrupt fall This recession 9. Oregon caught in the downdraft 10. Oregon & US unemployment spiked 11. Analyzing Oregons Performance

  • Since the Peak (November 2007)
    • Wage and salary employment
    • US:-7.9 million jobs:-5.7%
    • Oregon -131,000 jobs:-7.5%
  • Why is Oregon worse off?

12. Breaking it down

  • 92,000 jobs lost, in 3 categories:
  • Housing and Finance Bubble -30,000
  • Durable Goods Mfg.-20,000
  • Contagious Pessimism-42,000

12 month change in Oregon Wage & Salary Employment 13. Housing and Finance Bubble

  • Sector Jobs Lost % Change
  • Construction(18,000) -19%
  • Real Estate (5,000) -12%
  • Finance (6,500) -6%
  • Total (29,500)

12 month change in Oregon Wage & Salary Employment March 2008 to March 2009 Oregon Building permits down 44% in 2008;US housing starts at lowest level since 1946