Economia Mundial: Crise e Perspectiva
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Transcript of Economia Mundial: Crise e Perspectiva
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Economia Mundial: Crise e Perspectiva
Antony P. [email protected]
Semana do Economista26 de Agosto de 2013
Auditório ADUFS da Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS)
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PIB real, 2000-2013Estados Unido, Zona do Euro, Reino Unido
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Estados Unidos - taxa de emprego, 1990-2013
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Estados Unidos – Base monetária 1970-2013
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Balanços dos grandes bancos centrais (Ativos em % do PIB)
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Japão: Dívida pública em % do PIB, 1980-2013
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Reservas internacionais – Ásia Emergente2007-2012 - Estoque Dezembro 2012 (em USD bi)
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Tamanho relativo da Zona do Euro PIB em mil de US dólares 2012União Europeia 16 641 109
Estados Unidos 15 680 000
EUR 13 075 792China 8 227 037... Brasil 2 395 968 (14.4 % de UE)... Grécia 249 201 (1.91 % de EUR)
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Zona do euro – países membros
1999
Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Spain, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland
2001 Greece
2002 Introduction of euro banknotes and coins
2007 Slovenia2008 Cyprus, Malta2009 Slovakia2011 Estonia
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Área do euro – 2009 – PIB relativo
Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain Greece Portugal
GDP(in USD)
12,460,362 3,330,032 2,649,390 2,112,780 1,460,250 329,924 227,676
Share (%) 100.0 26.73 21.26 16.95 11.72 2.65 1.83
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Taxas de juros na Zona do Euro – Convergência e divergência, 1993-2012
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Zona do euro – Rendimentos de debentures e spreads do CDS
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Zona do Euro – taxa de juros de debentures Junho e Dezembro 2012,Maio 2013 2012
June2012 December
2013May
Germany 1.30 1.30 1.29
France 2.57 2.01 1.87
Italy 5.90 4.54 3.96
Ireland 7.09 4.67 3.48
Spain 6.59 5.34 4.25
Portugal 10.56 7.25 5.46
Greece 27.82 13.33 9.07
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Ajuda Financeirabilhões de euros até Dezembro 2012
Euro zone and IMF
EFSF and IMF
ECB ESM EFSF, EFSM and IMF
Greece 73 163.7 30.8 -- --
Spain -- -- 43.7 100 --
Portugal -- -- 21.6 -- 78
Italy -- -- 99 -- --
ECB – European Central BankIMF – International Monetary FundEFSF – European Financial Stability FacilityESM – European Stability MechanismEFSM – European Financial Stability Mechanism
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Área do euro – Balanço conta corrente e custos de trabalho por unidade
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Itália Dados macroeconômicos2005-2013Déficit público em % do PIBCrescimento econômicoTaxa de desempregoCusto do trabalho por unidade
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Economia italiana 2000-2012
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Itália. Perfil da dívida 2013-2022
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GréciaDéficit públicoCrescimento econômicoDesempregoCustos de trabalho por unidade
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Grécia. Perfil da dívida 2013-2023
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EspanhaDéficit públicoCrescimento econômicoDesempregoCustos do trabalho por unidade
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Espanha. Perfil da dívida 2013-2022
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PortugalDéficit públicoCrescimento econômicoDesempregoCustos de trabalho por unidade
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Portugal. Perfil da dívida 2013-2022
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Locomotiva Alemanha?
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Alemanha em comparação 2003-2012
•PIB• Taxa de
desemprego•Conta corrente
(em % do PIB)•Déficit público
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Estados UnidosRevisão do PIBRecalculo de capital não-tangível como investimentos e outras modificações que aumentam o nível do PIB americano por 3,6 % em 2012
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Estados Unidos – Dívida pública desde 1940
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Área do Euro – Dívida pública desde 1999
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Zona do Euro PIB em paridades de poder de compra 1999-2013
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Taxa de câmbio euro/dólar desde 2008
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Obrigado!
•Mais informações:•Blog: •www.economianova.blogspot.com•Site: •www.continentaleconomics.com•E-mail: •[email protected]