Eastern Economic Corridor Development · Chonburi, Rayong Chachoengsao Target industries ....
Transcript of Eastern Economic Corridor Development · Chonburi, Rayong Chachoengsao Target industries ....
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Eastern Economic Corridor Development
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To top up the eastern coastal areas development and elevate the national
competitive advantages with the supports of middle strategic location in the
ASEAN and national important industrial hub surrounded by
- Laemchabang/Map ta phut/Sat-Tahip ports - Laemchabang/Map ta phut Industrial
Estates - U-Tapao International Airport - Industrial Area - Eastern Motorway - Etc.
Eastern Economic Corridor Development Plan
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Chonburi, Rayong Chachoengsao
Target
industries
Supercluster - Automotive and parts
- Electronics
- Petrochemical and chemical
Eastern Economic Corridor Development Plan
Elevate the area to be respectable economic
zone in Asia
Development Infra-Structure efficiently
Support city and environment conditions
development
Provide convenience and incentives for
investors
Support High-level techonology and tourism
industries
+
- Petrochemical and
chemical
Map Ta Phut
Industrial
Estate
Target industries are high-level industries which are
friendly to the environment.
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Eastern Economic Corridor Development Plan
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Eastern Economic Corridor Development Plan
“To be infra-structure
elevating-tool for
global economic hub”
1. Eastern Airport City
2. High Speed Rail linked 3 Airports Project
3. MAP TA PHUT INDUSTRIAL PORT DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT PHASE 3
4. Laem-Chabung Sea Port Phase 3
5. MRO Complex Development
6. Digital Park Thailand (EECd)
1. Infra-structure development
2. Target industries development
3. Tourism development within the zone
4. Financial center development
5. Human resources development, R&D, and Education
6. New-City developments Chachoengsao-Pattaya-Rayong
7. Public relations and peoples participation in the area
8. Agricultural, Irrigation and Environmental work plans in the
EEC area 6
Meanings of “THE MAP TA PHUT INDUSTRIAL PORT DEVELOPMENT PROJECT PHASE 3”
To the economics and national 20-year master plans
The gateway of energy and national
logistic hub of petrochemical and
chemical industries
Supporting businesses in the EEC area
to be in new S-curve tier for long-term
competitive advantage
To have capability to import LNG as
important energy source for driving EEC
Eastern Economic Corridor Development Plan
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Eastern Economic Corridor Development Plan
MAP TA PHUT
INDUSTRIAL PORT DEVELOPMENT PROJECT PHASE 3
- To accommodate travel purposes of personnel
working in the MTP and industrial estates.
- To increase travel means in the east
- To support logistics of goods in Map Ta Phut
industrial areas
SMART PARK industrial estate
THE MAP TA PHUT
INDUSTRIAL PORT
DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT PHASE 3
To be in the value-chain with MTP such as petrochem,
steel to be as production material in S-curve businesses
-
Laem-Chabung Sea Port
- To support exporting
petrochem goods from MTP
Double Track Railway
High Speed Train
Motorway
- To support land transports for
eastern industrial zone such as
LPG transport 8
Eastern Economic Corridor Development Plan
To increase industrial productivity
and move-up to new paradigm
To increase potential in water transport
and logistics as transport hub for ASEAN
and to the world market
To increase competitive advantage for
industries within EEC and country so
as to be supporting infra-structure
using petro-chemical and energy
products
EEC plan
12th develop
ment plan
Thailand 4.0
20-year master plan
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Investment Incentives
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EEC
IEAT
BOI
Incentives from investment promotion
Incentives THE MAP TA PHUT INDUSTRIAL PORT DEVELOPMENT PORJECT PHASE 3
• Corporate Income Tax Waive
of 5 years
• Machinery Duty Waive
• Raw Material Duty Waive
• Non-Tax
• Tax incentives
• Non-tax incentives
• Corporate Income Tax Waive as much as 15 years
• Lowest personnel income tax in Asean of 17%
• 5-year work VISA
• Right to 50-year lease term and renewal of another
49 years
• Acclaimed One – Stop Service
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Incentives from investment promotion
Incentives from BOI
Incentives from IEAT
Tax incentives
1.Import duty, VAT, and Excise taxes on machinery tools waives
2. Export duty, VAT, and excise tax on goods to be produced for export and
domestic sales waives
3. Export duty , VAT, and excise tax on goods and products from
manufacturing waives
Non-tax incentives
1. Right to hold land in industrial estate
2. VISA and work permit allowance for alien high-skill labour
3. Allowance for No.2 to live in the kingdom together with VISA service
4. Grant for outward fund transfer
Shipment transport business (A3)
-5-year Corporate Income Tax waive
-Machinery duty Waive
-Raw-material duty waive
-Right on land holding
-Grant for outward fund transfer
-VISA and work permit allowance for alien high-skill labour
Business Type Incentives
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Incentives from investment promotion
Incentives from EEC
1. • Tax waive up to 15 years
2. • Machinery and Raw Material Duty Waive
3. • Financially Supporting R&D of target industries
4. • Right on land holding
5. • Right on 50-year land lease and possible renewal of another 49 years
6. • Personal income tax of 17 % rate for qualified executives and researchers
7. • 5-year work VISA
8. • Grant for outward fund transfer
9. • One – Stop Service for Export and Import Documentation
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Demand Projection of The Map Ta Phut
Industrial Port Development Project Phase 3
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Choices of demand throughput for MTP3
1. Existing industries 3. Liquid product
Selected throughput for MTP3
2. Energy 4. Others
1. Overview
Demand for MTP3
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1. Overview
Source : Maptaphut Industrial Port Office
Remark : 1.No data for Iron and steel industry in 2012
2. Others are composed of scrap, zinc, mineral, salt and etc. เปนตน
Current MTP throughput
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
น้ํามันและกาซ เคมีภัณฑและปโตรเคมี ถานหิน เหล็ก อ่ืน ๆ
2551 2552 2553 2554 2555 2556 2557 2558 2559 2560
Unit: Million Tons 8.18%
-10.16%
5.32%
7.19%
4.65%
Oil and gas Chemical and Petrochem Coal Iron and steel Others
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Potential MTP3 throughput
Demand
Possibility for
MTP3
throughput
Rational
Oil and Gas
MTP is a hub for national energy supply, esp. oil
and gas. Balance of demand and supply for the
whole country should be considered.
Chemical and
Petrochemical
Products
Existing capacity can be served for domestic
demand in MTP, new demand from outside MTP
has potential.
Coal Existing capacity can be served for current and
future demand.
Steel and iron Demand has no growth due to highly competition.
Capability is fit to current demand.
Container MTP cannot compete with other container port
1. Overview
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Connectivity with energy infrastructures (e.g. gas pipeline)
Gas pipeline network is prepared
for gas supply in eastern
seaboard and MTP. New gas
pipeline (No. 5) is in progress.
1. Overview
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EPPO Gas plan 2015 Model
End-users
Upside gain Downside risk
Power generation
- Excess electricity demand - High penetration of SPP Co-gen - Protest on coal-fired and
nuclear power*
- Fuel mix policy to reduce portion of natural gas and RE support
- Stagnant of economic * Feedstock
- Industry growth - Depletion of natural gas in Thai gulf
Industries
- Expansion of natural gas pipeline network*
- Slowdown of industry*
NGV - Policy on Bus NGV* - Disruption of Electric Vehicle - Low oil price*
2. Energy
Natural gas: Demand (Base case)
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• Depletion of NG in Thai gulf and contract end for Myanmar import
• Large portion of LNG import
35 MTPA in 2054 (30 yrs)
37 MTPA in 2074 (50 yrs)
EPPO Gas plan 2015 Model
Remark: Assume 8.8% losses in system (referred to data in 2017)
2. Energy
Natural gas: Supply (Base case)
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LNG import requirement (MTPA) 1
(2024)
5
(2029)
10
(2034)
15
(2039)
20
(2044)
25
(2049)
30
(2054)
35
(2059)
40
(2064)
45
(2069)
50
(2074)
Base case Whole country 16 24 27 27 30 33 35 36 37 37 37
MTP3 0.0 0.0 3.4 3.5 6.8 8.8 10.8 12.1 12.8 12.6 12.7
2. Energy
LNG requirement for MTPS (Base case)
Source: The Ministry of Energy, June 2017
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• Diesel and gasoline are decreasing due to the penetration of EV, biofuel, and road-to-rail mode shift
• Jet kerosene is growing according to air transport, with less substitution.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5019
9419
9720
0020
0320
0620
0920
1220
1520
1820
2120
2420
2720
3020
3320
3620
3920
4220
4520
4820
5120
5420
5720
6020
6320
6620
6920
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Milli
on to
nnes
of oi
l equ
ivalen
t
Gasoline Jet Kerosene Kerosene Diesel Residual Fuel Oil LPG
EPPO Model
2. Energy
Oil product demands
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• Crude oil import is saturated
according to diesel and gasoline
demand.
• Potential of oil product
import/export (e.g. Aviation oil,
Marine oil and etc.) approx. 6.5 M.
Tons @ 2054
• Potential for MTP3 approx. 2 M.
Tons @ 2054
Remark: Assume 30% of additional oil product import/export
Oil product
import/export
1
(2024)
5
(2029)
10
(2034)
15
(2039)
20
(2044)
25
(2049)
30
(2054)
35
(2059)
40
(2064)
45
(2069)
50
(2074)
MTP3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.2
2. Energy
Oil import/export requirement for MTP3
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Year Expansion (M. Tons)
Yr 1 (2024) 1.23
Yr 5 (2029) 2.01
Yr 10 (2034) 2.88
Yr 15 (2039) 3.83
Yr 20 (2044) 4.00
Yr 25 (2049) 4.00
Yr 30 (2054) 4.00
Assumption for projection 1. Growth of liquid products of 2.5% (referred to historical
growth for users outside MTP, no additional demand in MTP)
2. Capacity capped at 4 M. Tons (referred to the expansion plan
of interviewees)
3. Liquid products
Demand of liquid product (e.g. chemical and petrochemical products) for public berth
Year Utilization
1993 1.41%
1997 33.54%
2001 41.89%
2005 67.53%
2009 82.30%
2013 101.16%
2016 109.52%
Source: TTT
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Summary
1. LNG terminal
2. Import/Export terminal for oil products
3. Public port for liquid products
Products (MTPA) Yr 1
(2024)
Yr 5
(2029)
Yr 10
(2034)
Yr 15
(2039)
Yr 20
(2044)
Yr 25
(2049)
Yr 30
(2054)
LNG import 0.0 0.0 3.4 3.5 6.8 8.8 10.8
Oil products 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0
Total of energy product 0.3 0.6 4.3 4.7 8.3 10.6 12.8
Liquid products 1.23 2.01 2.88 3.83 4.00 4.00 4.00
Total demand 1.53 2.61 7.18 8.53 12.3 14.6 16.8
Demand for MTP3 (Base Case)
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Physical Study of The Map Ta Phut
Industrial Port Development Project Phase 3
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LOCATION
LOCATION
Location of Project
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36
3191
3392
Location of Project
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Map Ta Phut industrial port development project phase 3
Location of Project
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PHASE I
PHASE II PHASE III
PHASE I
PHASE II
Current Area
Phase III in Future
Location of Project
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2 4
View 1 View 2
View 3 View 4
Current Area
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General Land
Use (C)
Silt Pond
Gas Port (B)
Liquid Port (A)
Service Tug
Boat Port
PHASE I
PHASE II
Area 1000 Rai (Approx. 395 Acre)
• Silt Pond 450 Rai (178 Acre)
• Liquid Port 200 Rai (79 Acre)
• Gas Port 200 Rai (79 Acre)
• General Land Use
150 Rai (59 Acre)
Scope of Project
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Revetment length 5,410 m.
Breakwater length 1,627 m.
Reclamation +5.40 m. CDL.
Approx. 11.6 Million m3
Dredging -16.00 m. CDL.
Approx. 12.8 Million m3
Area I 634,000 m2
Area II 1,396,000 m2
Scope of Project
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Revetment length 5,410 m.
Breakwater length 1,627 m.
Reclamation +5.40 m. CDL.
Approx. 11.6 Million m3
Dredging -16.00 m. CDL.
Approx. 12.8 Million m3
Area I 634,000 m2
Area II 1,396,000 m2
Scope of Project
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Section A-A
Section B-B
Section C-C
+5.40
+5.40
Dredging & Reclamation
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Type I สวนท่ี 1
Revetment
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SEA SIDE
HARBOUR SIDE
แนว REVETMENT TYPE II
แนว
REVE
TMEN
T TY
PE II
Breakwater
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Location of Materials
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Environmental Impacts from
the Map Ta Phut Industrial Port
Development Phase 3
Presented by Dr. Jamlong Suthin
Environmental Expert
Silt Pond (450 rai)
Breakwater 1,627
m
Revetment
5,410 m
Tug Boat
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Physical Resources
(7 issues) Human Uses
(7 issues)
Quality of Life
(4 Issues)
1. Geography and
geology
2. Meteorology and
Air Quality
3. Geomorphology
4. Oceanography
5. Hydrology
6. Seawater Quality
7. Noise and Vibration
1. Costal ecology
2. Marine ecology and
Fishery
1. Land uses
2. Transportation
3. Water consumption
4. Electricity
consumption
5. Flood prevention
6. Communication
7. Waste management
1. Socio-economy
2. Aesthetic and
tourism
3. Occupational
Health and Safety
4. Public Health
Biological Resources
(2 issues)
Scope of EHIA
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Environmental Resources Level of effect (without measures) Level of effect (with measures)
Construction Phase Operation Phase Construction Phase Operation Phase
Physical Resources
1. Geography Medium Low Low Low
2. Geology - - - -
3. Earthquakes - - - -
4. Meteorology and
Air Quality
Low Low Low Low
5. Geomorphology Low Low Low Low
6. Oceanography Low Low Low Low
7. Hydrology - - - -
8. Seawater Quality Low Low Low Low
9. Noise and Vibration Low Low Low Low
Biological Resources
1. Geography - - - -
2. Marine ecology and Fishery Low Low Low Low
Summary of Environmental Impact
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Environmental Resources Level of effect (without measures) Level of effect (with measures)
Construction Phase Operation Phase Construction Phase Operation Phase
Human Uses
1. Land uses - - - -
2. Transportation Low Low Low Low
3. Water consumption - - - -
4. Electricity consumption - - - -
5. Flood prevention - - - -
6. Communication - - - -
7. Waste management - - - -
8. Wastewater management - - - -
Quality of Life
1. Socio-economy Medium Medium Low Low
2. Aesthetic and tourism - - - -
3. Occupational Health
and Safety
Low Low Low Low
4. Public Health Low Low Low Low
Summary of Environmental Impact (Cont.)
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Geography and Geology
Mitigation Measures
Plan the construction and
restrict area of construction
Follow and strictly with the
construction plan
Dumping Area
1,000 rai
Dredging and Turning Basin
Area 1,200 rai
Impact (Operation Phase)
will altered the existing topography and geologic formation.
The natural seabed will be reformed to port area.
Impact (Operation Phase)
Changing in costal morphology: Port structure will impact
sedimentary process along the changed coastline.
Secondary Armor
Primary Armor
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Meteorology and Air Quality
Impact (Construction Phase)
Dispersion of dust from construction activity
Air quality index: TSP, PM10, CO and NO2 comply
with the standard in all areas except the PM10 in
Project area.
Impact (Operation Phase)
None of stationary sources of air emission that
will impact wind speed and meteorology
Transportation of raw materials and products
is closed-system
Air Quality Index : TSP, PM10, CO, SO2, NO2, THC, VOCs, Wind speed
Time and Frequency : 2 times/year , continuously for 3 consecutive days
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Geomorphology
Monitoring Index : Wind speed, wind direction,
wave characteristics, migration of sands, excretion
of sands and coastal erosion
Time and Frequency : 2 time/year for the entire
operation phase
Impact (Construction Phase and Operation Phase)
In 500 meters in radius of the port will have
slightly increase of deposition
In 25 years, in the east of the port will have less
deposition while in the west of the port will have
insignificant change (less than 0.50 meter/year)
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Mitigation Measures Assign the contractor to use cutter suction dredger
Oceanography
Impact (Construction Phase) Changing in current in the east and in the west of the port Dredging will cause dispersion of sediments
Impact (Operation Phase)
Changing in western and eastern current
Mitigation Measures Dredging deposited sediments in
Port area, channels and ship turning basin.
Cutter Suction Dreger
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Seawater Quality
Construction Phase
Operation Phase
Monitoring Index : Effluent & Seawater Quality (7 stations)
Time/Frequency : Effluent 1 time/month ,Sea water 4
times /year
Monitoring Index : Effluent & Seawater Quality (6 stations)
Time/Frequency : Seawater quality and effluent, 1 time / month
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Marine Ecology and Fishery
Impact (Construction Phase)
Estimated 3,750,000 sq.m. 450-1,012
millions of Benthos will be loss.
Local fishery will loss area of fishery
for 2,200 Rai
Monitoring Index : Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, Benthos, eggs and larvae
Time/Frequency : Ecological survey 1 time before construction
and 2 times/year for the entire construction phase
Mitigation Measures
Support local communities and local
fishery activities and keep follow up
problems about fishery. 53
Marine Ecology and Fishery (Cont.)
Impact (Operation Phase) Discharge of wastewater, contaminated oils and chemical and leakage can
impact marine ecology and fishery
Mitigation Measures
Follow and strictly with oil and chemical leakage emergency response plan
Koh Saket
Koh Hin Yai
Monitoring Index : Corals, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, Benthos, eggs and larvae Time/Frequency : Coral : 2 times/year , Aquatic organisms : 4 times/year
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Transportation
3191 36
363
3 3392
1035
Mitigation Measures (Construction Phase)
Limit speed of vehicles less than 60
km/hr
Avoid communities routes and rush
hours (7.00-8.00 and 16.30-17.30)
Installation light signals to indicate
location of the port at night
Monitoring Measures (Construction
Phase and Operation Phase) Monitoring Index : Records number of
vehicles
Time/Frequency : Daily for the entire
construction phase and operation phase
Project Area phase 3
Impact (Construction Phase and Operation Phase)
Transportation in the Project will slightly increase traffic on the road
Marine transportation may impact navigation and local fishery
Impact (Operation Phase)
Increase marine traffic and fishery
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Socio-Economic
10 km
5 km
Impact (Construction Phase and
Operation Phase)
Local income and small-boated fisher
May lost fishery area
Increase loads of work for health
service agencies
Mitigation Measures (Construction Phase)
Installation of Project information board
to show details about Project, period of
construction, name of contractors,
mitigation measures, and contact number
for compliance.
Support natural conservation,
development of environment and life
quality of communities
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Socio-Economic (Cont.)
Monitoring Measures (Construction Phase) Assign community representative to visit the Project
and participate in the Project monitoring 2 times/year
Monitoring Measures (Operation Phase) Monitoring Index : Attitude and socio-economic survey
and participation of community representatives
Time/Frequency : 1 time/year
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Impact (Construction Phase) Mitigation Measures Dust and noise impacts
Occupational accidents of workers
Cover truck during transportation
Provide PPE for workers
Contractors must follow and be strictly with
the laws and regulations
Impact (Operation Phase) Mitigation Measures
Accidents risk from liquid and gases
transfer.
Fire training and fire rehearsal for at least
1 time/year
Occupational Health and Safety
58
Impact (Construction Phase)
Mitigation Measures
Immigration of labour can increase
rate of infection diseases and
demand in share pubic facilities.
Provide first aid unit and coordinate with local
health services
Educated and provide advise for construction
worker for workplace safe and prevention of
diseases.
Impact (Operation Phase) Mitigation Measures
Diseases that are often from crews
and immigrants workers
Screen health check for not-Thai
nationalities/immigrant workers.
Assign annual health check for workers
Public Health
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Financial Analysis and PPP Study
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• Not an usual public/private infrastructure investment Project.
Thailand’s 1 trillion baht energy
import markets.
• Investors will have an ENTRY point, through The Map Ta Phut Industrial Port Development Project Phase 3, to Thai and neighboring markets.
• But a RARE business investment opportunity, particularly into
Thailand’s 1 trillion baht energy import markets.
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• The Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand (IEAT) will invest in the
infrastructure, valuing B.12,900 million. Or investor can choose to
invest in the infrastructure and superstructure at the same time.
• Under the Public Private Partnership Act of 2013, Investors will
invest in Port Facilities and superstructure for their businesses.
• Investors are expected to pay upfront concession fees for the 30
year use of infrastructure, regular freight and land rental fee.
62
• Fit investment capabilities • Positive cash flow and balance sheet
• PPP format with no fiscal burden • Technological Oriented
• Investment Opportunities • Market rate return on investment
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• 450 rai of silt pond
• 150 rai of general use land area
• 1,415 meter of berth length, providing 3 docking
berths, and 200 rai of land area
• 814 meter of berth length, providing 2 docking berth,
and 200 rai of land area
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• Declining gas reserves in the Gulf of Thailand + gas imported from Myanmar • LNG import needs rising to 22.8 MTPA in 2036 and 32.7 MTPA in 2049
EPPO Gas plan 2015 Model
mm
scfd
M
TPA
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-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
Millio
n ton
nes o
f oil e
quiva
lent (M
toe)
Oil Products Crude Oil
• Import needs for oil products such as Jet kerosene and LPG is estimated
at 5.8 million tons of Oil equivalent in 2048
66
-5,000
-3,000
-1,000
1,000
3,000
5,000
7,0001
99
51
99
71
99
92
00
12
00
32
00
52
00
72
00
92
01
12
01
32
01
52
01
72
01
92
02
12
02
32
02
52
02
72
02
92
03
12
03
32
03
52
03
72
03
92
04
12
04
32
04
52
04
72
04
9
10
00
To
ns
Refinery GSP Others Net balance (supply - demand)
• LPG import is estimated to be 3.5 million tons in 2049
67
Year 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049 2053
Base 0.28 0.62 4.42 4.74 8.26 10.57 12.71
High 1.86 5.93 11.47 15.55 19.00 19.00 19.00
Base Case, 12.71
High Case, 19.00
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
202420262028203020322034203620382040204220442046204820502052
Mill
ion
Tons
68
69
70
Infrastructure invesment valuing B.12,900 million.
Superstructure A investment, suitable for Oil Products business, estimated cost at B.4,300 million.
Superstructure B investment, suitable for LPG business, estimated cost at B. 35,000 million.
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30 year concession period
Base Case Demand Projections
IEAT charges regular freight, land rental fees, and port service fees based on present rates charged to the users of The Map Ta Phut Industrial Port 1 and 2
Investors A and B receives “normal” profit margins for their businesses
72
Regular Freight and Land Rental Fee
527,289 Bath/meter/year for Water
Front
574,193 Bath/rai/year for
Hinterland
37.50 Bath/Ton
73
• IEAT invests in the Infrastructure
• Investor A invests in Superstructure A
• Investor B invests in Superstructure B
• Investor C rents the 150 rai Plot of Land
• Investor A invests in Superstructure
A
• Investor B invests in Infrastructure
and Superstructure B
• Investor C rents in the 150 rai Plot
of Land
74
8.5% including the terminal value of the infrastructure
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
IEAT INVESTORA
INVESTORB
8.5 9.7
14.5 9.7 % after all related
expenses and Concession fee
14.5 % after all related expenses and
Concession fee
75
• A 30 year of concession period of the infrastructure and land use will be given.
• A 814 meter of berth length and 200 rai of adjacent land will be up for bidding.
76
receives same cash flow as Model 1, Rent and Freight
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
INVESTOR A INVESTOR B
9.7
10.2 9.7 % after all related
expenses and Concession fee
10.2 % after all related expenses and
Concession fee
77
• A 1,415 meter of berth length and 200 rai of
adjacent land will be up for bidding.
• A 30 year of concession period of the
infrastructure and land use will be given.
• A construction of infrastructure valuing at
12,900 Millions Baht
78
Economics Feasibility Study
Items Unit Result
Direct Benefit Include Indirect Benefit
Investment Cost Million Baht 45,936.00 45,936.00
Operation Cost Million Baht 19,961.26 19,961.26
Total Cost Million Baht 65,897.26 65,897.26
Benefit of Project Million Baht 320,714.00 411,805.00
Terminal Value Million Baht 66,705.55 66,705.55
Result of Economics Analysis
Economics Internal Rate of Return
(EIRR) % 13.23% 44.69%
Net Present Value (NPV) Million Baht 3,261.81 33,943.01
Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) - 1.15 2.55 Note : Discount Rate 12%
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31/07/2018 – 07/07
IEAT invite private sector to join PPP of Map Ta Phut Industrial Port Development Project Phase 3
08/08 – 08/10
Private sector prepare and summit project proposals
08/10– 16/10
Check Proposal Qualification
8/10-24/10
Assessing Proposal in the financial and technical aspects
12/10-24/10
Negotiation Sign Contract
December 2018
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Your interest in the IEAT’s Business Investment Invitation.
Preference on the Business Model 1 or 2
Proposed type of business.
Estimated investment cost of your business.
Estimated amount of the concessional fee.
All useful comments will be much appreciated.
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Risk analysis for private sector
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Risk Items and Sharing
Risk Items Model 1 Model 2
IEAT Private IEAT Private
Cost Overrun of Infrastructure - -
Cost Overrun of Superstructure - -
Construction Delays -
Demand forecast failure
Expenses exceeding estimates - -
Energy Policy change (Third Party Access
Regime) - -
Concession amount failure from estimated - -
Failure of non bidder - -
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Model 1
Risk Items
1. Cost Overrun of Infrastructure
2. Construction delays
3. Demand forecast failure (Cash Flow)
4. Concession amount failure from estimated
5. Failure of non bidder
Impact
Chance
V.Low
(1)
Low
(2)
Medium
(3)
High
(4)
V.High
(5)
V. High(5)
High (4)
Medium (3) 2.
Low (2) 3. 1. 4. 5.
V. Low (1)
IEAT
% average IEAT risk on Model 1
Items Score
Total risk 125
(25 x 5)
IEAT risk 37
(6+9+4+8+10)
% risk 29.6%
(37 ÷ 125) 84
Model 1
Impact
Chance
V.Low
(1)
Low
(2)
Medium
(3)
High
(4)
V.High
(5)
V. High(5)
High (4)
Medium (3) 2., 4. 3.
Low (2) 1.
V. Low (1) 5.
Private sector
% average private-sector risk on Model 1
Risk items of private sector
1. Cost Overrun of Superstructure
2. Construction delays
3. Demand forecast failure
4. Expenses exceeding estimates
5. Energy Policy change (Third Party Access
Regime)
Items Score
Total risk 125
( 25 x 5)
Private-sector risk 35
(6+6+12+6+5)
% risk 28.00%
( 35 ÷ 125) 85
Model 2
Risk items
1. Demand forecast failure
2. Concession amount failure from
estimated
3. Failure of non bidder
Impact
Chance
V.Low
(1)
Low
(2)
Medium
(3)
High
(4)
V.High
(5)
V. High(5)
High (4)
Medium (3)
Low (2) 1. 2. 3.
V. Low (1)
IEAT
% average IEAT risk on Model 2
Items Score
Total risk 75
(25 x 3)
IEAT risk 22
(4+8+10)
% risk 29.33%
(22 ÷ 75) 86
Impact
Chance
V.Low
(1)
Low
(2)
Medium
(3)
High
(4)
V.High
(5)
V. High(5)
High (4)
Medium (3) 3., 5. 4.
Low (2) 1. , 2.
V. Low (1) 6.
% average private-sector risk on Model 2
Risk items of private sector
1. Cost Overrun of Infrastructure
2. Cost Overrun of Superstructure
3. Construction delays
4. Demand forecast failure
5. Expenses exceeding estimates
6. Energy Policy change (Third Party
Access Regime)
Model 2
Items Score
Total risk 150
(25 x 6)
Private-sector risk 41
(6+6+6+12+6+5)
% risk 27.33%
(41 ÷ 150) 87
Conclusions between IEAT and Private sector Risks
Investment model Risk Scores
IEAT Private sector
Model 1 29.60% 28.00%
Model 2 29.33% 27.33%
Other infra-
structure projects 37.09%-65.60% 39.52% - 47.58%
Note: Compared between same basis of risk items
• Considering both models; Risks of both parties are at similar levels.
• When compared on the same risk-items with several infra-structure
projects, Risks of MTP phase 3 are lower.
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