Dynamic Help Desk Modeling - iceaaonline.com · •SAP software •Cost projections for 20+ year...
Transcript of Dynamic Help Desk Modeling - iceaaonline.com · •SAP software •Cost projections for 20+ year...
Dynamic Help Desk Modeling
SCEA Conference 2011- Albuquerque, NM
Presented at the 2011 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual Conference and Training Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com
Background / Introduction
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• Objective – Accurately estimate the long‐term annual helpdesk cost for a major DoD ERP System
• 65,000+ Users
• Financial Management, Acquisition, Contracts, Personnel Mgmt., Supply Chain Mgmt. functionality
• Rolling wave deployment strategy over 6 years
• SAP software
• Cost projections for 20+ year period
Presented at the 2011 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual Conference and Training Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com
Three Tiered Help‐Desk Structure
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Presented at the 2011 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual Conference and Training Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com
Data from First of six Deployments
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500Total Tickets Received / Wee
k
Pre‐Go Live
Go Live Sustainment
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500Total Tickets Received / Wee
k
Pre‐Go Live
Go Live Sustainment
• Data from the first go‐live indicated three distinct periods of helpdesk support requirements• Pre‐Go live – low ticket volume, slowly increasing over time
• Go Live – high ticket volume, sharply decreasing after Go Live
• Sustainment – medium ticket volume, slowly decreasing over time
Presented at the 2011 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual Conference and Training Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com
Data from First of six Deployments
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y = 0.0007x ‐ 5E‐05
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Pre Go‐Live Trouble Tickets Submitted/Week/User
Pre Go‐Live Trouble Tickets Submitted/Week/User
Linear (Pre Go‐Live Trouble Tickets Submitted/Week/User) y = 0.0007x ‐ 5E‐05
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Pre Go‐Live Trouble Tickets Submitted/Week/User
Pre Go‐Live Trouble Tickets Submitted/Week/User
Linear (Pre Go‐Live Trouble Tickets Submitted/Week/User)
y = 0.0339x‐0.118
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Sustainment Trouble Tickets Submitted/Week/User
Sustainment Trouble Tickets Submitted/Week/UserPower (Sustainment Trouble Tickets Submitted/Week/User)
y = 0.0339x‐0.118
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Sustainment Trouble Tickets Submitted/Week/User
Sustainment Trouble Tickets Submitted/Week/UserPower (Sustainment Trouble Tickets Submitted/Week/User)
• Regression equations were developed for the 3 distinct periods around Go-live• Equations predict number of tickets submitted / user / week based on deployment phase and week
Presented at the 2011 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual Conference and Training Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com
Key Variables and Cost Drivers
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Variable Impact on Help Desk Staffing Requirements
How the Model addresses this
Total Users & Active Users More users = more tickets; active users is a better predictor of volumes than total users
Regression equation normalized based on user counts; predicts per user ticket volume
User Maturity Gradual decrease in tickets over time
Regression equation for sustainment has a negative slope
System Maturity Volume of tickets / active user decreases w/ each deployment
System maturity factor is used to calibrate the model
Service Rate Improvements
Tickets are closed faster as helpdesk resources gain experience
Service rate improvement factor is used to adjust service rates over time
New functionality and system upgrades
Spike in helpdesk calls around the implementation of new functionality
Deployment dates and affected # of users can be quickly added on the import form
Presented at the 2011 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual Conference and Training Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com
System / User Maturity
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Actual Helpdesk Tickets Submitted per Quarter
Deployment 1
Deployment 2
Deployment 3
Actual Helpdesk Tickets Submitted per Quarter
Deployment 1
Deployment 2
Deployment 3
• System maturity reflected by decrease in ticket volume / user for each deployment
• User maturity demonstrated by decrease in tickets over time
Presented at the 2011 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual Conference and Training Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com
Model Output
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0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Total N
umber of System Users
Total N
umber of Tier 2 and Tier 3 Helpdesk FTEs
Help Desk FTEs Required by Month
Tier 2 Help Desk Tier 3 Help Desk Total Users
• Once calibrated, the model projected the # of tickets to within 5% of actuals
Presented at the 2011 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual Conference and Training Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total System Users / Helpdesk FTE
Dynamic Help Desk Users / FTE Step Function Users / FTE
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total System Users / Helpdesk FTE
Dynamic Help Desk Users / FTE Step Function Users / FTE
Comparison to Step Function Methodology
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
10/1/2008 10/1/2009 10/1/2010 10/1/2011 10/1/2012
Total H
elp Desk FTEs Required
Step Function vs. Dynamic Help Desk Model
Dynamic Help Desk Model ProjectionStep Function Projection
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20
40
60
80
100
120
10/1/2008 10/1/2009 10/1/2010 10/1/2011 10/1/2012
Total H
elp Desk FTEs Required
Step Function vs. Dynamic Help Desk Model
Dynamic Help Desk Model ProjectionStep Function Projection
Presented at the 2011 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual Conference and Training Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com
Benefits of the Model
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• Dynamic model output significantly more accurate than step function / SME estimates
• Enabled accurate long‐term staffing forecasts
• Identified significant future funding shortfalls
• Provided DoD leadership with confidence in cost forecasts; key enabler for significant funding increases
• Rapid what‐if scenario modeling to support programmatic decisions, cost forecasts, and budgeting
• Enabled the program to recoup costs associated with added users
• Provided an objective tool to validate subjective SME inputs
Presented at the 2011 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual Conference and Training Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com
Q&A
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Presented at the 2011 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual Conference and Training Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com