Dynamic Energy Systems Analysisfor the Assessment of New Energy Technologies

Annual Meeting of the International Energy WorkshopEMF - IEA (ETSAP) - IIASA

22-24 June 2004, Paris, France

Dr.-Ing. Stephan Ramesohl

Dr.-Ing. Manfred Fischedick

Wuppertal Institute for Climate Environment Energy

Research Group "Future Energy and Transport Structures"

June 2004

How to achieve the long-term GHG reduction path?

- energy related emissions only -

Sources: DIW-report 10/2004; reduction path: BMU 2004

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

200

400

600

800

1.000

CO

2-em

issi

on

s, [

Mill

t C

O2/

yr]

1990-2003Reference

caseScenario

Nat. conservationReduction

targets

oeko\co2deu.pre;3.1.04

Commitment - 25% in 2005

Kyoto-target 2008-2012

Governmental declaration 2002: - 40% in 2020

Recommendations Enquete; IPCC: - 80% in 2050

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(en

erg

y re

late

d o

nly

) in

[M

io. t

CO

2eq]

DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004

June 2004

The historic window of opportunity:up to 80.000 MW of electricity generation to be replaced

DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004

June 2004

Scenario results for electricity generationA strong role for CHP and renewables

DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004

June 2004

Scenario results for heat supplyEfficiency and renewables limit the potential for CHP

DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004

June 2004

Prospects for stationary fuel cellsIndustry and local heat systems are key areas for FC

inst

alle

d c

apac

ity

(MW

el)

REF NC REF NC REF NC REF NC REF NC

industry

FC heatingsystems

(local)district heat

DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004

June 2004

Beating the dynamic benchmark:increasing challenges for fuel cells in RES systems

June 2004

There is a strong competition for the allocation of RESThe case of biomass

DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004

June 2004

Enforcing biofuel strategies increase system costsGiving priority to stationary biomass uses is more efficient

DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004

dif

fere

nce

co

sts

Mio

. E

UR

/a

EU biofuel target

June 2004

Contraints in biomass availability triggers introduction of hydrogen - either for mobile or stationary applications

DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004

June 2004

Energy efficiency is the key to a considerable share of alternative motor fuels in the future

DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004

share of final energy

final energy (PJ) reference case scenario NC1

June 2004

The synopsis of long-term scenarios reveals close relation between H2 and an ambitious climate policy

Beitrag von REG-Wasserstoff an der CO2 - Minderung

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

CO2-Reduktion bezogen auf 1990, %

An

teil

am

En

de

ne

rgie

ve

rbra

uc

h,

%

Winter/Nitsch 1989

Nitsch/Luther 1990

TA I, 1990

TA II, 1990

Prognos, 1991

Traube, 1991;

DLR/ISE 1997

UBA 2002NACHH

UBA 2002MAX

Wasserstoff/anteile.pre; 12.2.02

con

trib

uti

on

of

H2

to G

HG

red

uct

ion

s in

%

long-term reduction of GHG compared to 1990

June 2004

The prospects of H2: assumptions on the market intro-duction of H2 cars in Germany (private passenger cars)

forced introduction from 2010 to 100% in 2035

streched introduction from 2010 to 100% in 2050

moderate introductionfrom 2010 to 50% in 2050

Ramesohl et al. 2003

June 2004

The demand for RES electricity for hydrogen electrolysis (private passenger cars)

• at trend conditions unrealistic demand for RES electricity in the case of forced/streched introduction

• additional demand for LH2 paths due to liquefaction conversion losses

• feasible paths combine moderate introduction (50%) in 2050 with a generation mix (MSR + electrolysis) and/or high efficient cars ("High-Savings")

Ramesohl et al. 2003

June 2004

Demand for wind power capacity in addition to the planned growth of RES electricity

German power park 2002

Wind capacity 2002 Assumption:2000 full load h/a

Ramesohl et al. 2003

June 2004

Assessment of RES technology options requires a holistic analysis of interdependencies within the energy system

Ramesohl et al. 2003

June 2004

A partial view on benefits of hydrogen may lead to misguided results - an energy system's perspective is needed

Ramesohl et al. 2003

June 2004

Emissions of hydrogen paths from a partial perspective on the allocation of RES electricity

Ramesohl et al. 2003

June 2004

Emissions of hydrogen paths from a holistic perspective on the allocation of RES electrcity

Ramesohl et al. 2003

June 2004

Conclusions from a systems analysis for Germany

A complete analysis of sustainable energy systems requires the holistic assessment of interactions between stationary and mobile applications

Ecological constraints reduce the domestic potential esp. for biomass and wind

Energy efficiency and renewables limit the prospects of stationary fuel cells. However, a significant potential still remains if infrastructures (local heat systems) are available => FC technology needs to be embedded into integrated concepts

For decades, stationary use of biomass resources and renewable electricity remains superior to mobile applications both in terms of GHG emissions and costs

Before 2050, there is hardly any realistic, efficient and ecologically benign pathway to large shares of more than 50% H2 in road transport

The priority task in transport is to reduce road transport volumes and specific energy consumption drastically - alternative fuels policies are not an alternative to energy efficiency but strongly depend on prior reduction achievements

June 2004

Roadmap to a renewable energy system as the foundation of a sustainable hydrogen economy

until 2010 "Entry phase" backed by energy policy through target setting

for RES share and related support policies

2010 - 2020 "Stabilisation" of RES growth and gradual withdrawal of policy

support

2020 - 2035 Full "Consolidation" of new RES technologies and start of

Trans-European exchange of RES energy

2035 - 2050 growing "Dominance" of RES in all end-use sectors and start

of significant use of hydrogen

beyond 2050 ongoing "Relief of fossil energy" by RES and large-scale

establishment of hydrogen from RES

Thank you for your attention

Dr.-Ing. Stephan RamesohlResearch Group "Future Energy and Transport Structures"Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, EnergyPO Box 10 04 80, D-42004 WuppertalTel. +49 202 2492 -255 (-198 Fax),stephan.ramesohl@wupperinst.orghttp://www.wupperinst.org