DÜNYA EKONOMİSİ REEL SEKTÖR

1Strateji Geliştirme Başkanlığı

DÜNYA EKONOMİSİ

REEL SEKTÖR


2

2,9

3,6

4,94,5

5,1 5,2

3,1

-1,1

3,0

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (*) 2010 (*)

Kaynak: IMF, Dünya Ekonomik Görünümü, Ekim 2009

Küresel Büyüme Oranları

* Tahmin


3

Büyüme Tahminleri (%)

-1,1

-2,7

-4,2

6,2

3,1

1,5

0,3

7,3

-6,0

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

Dünya ABD Avro Bölgesi Gelişmekte OlanAsya

2009 2010



Output per Capita-Advanced Economies

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Previous Current



Output per Capita-Emerging Economies

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Previous Current



Output per Employee-Advanced Economies

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Previous Current



Output per Employee-Emerging Economies

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Previous Current



Employment Rate-Advanced Economies

-1,2

-1

-0,8

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Previous Current



Employment Rate-Emerging Economies

-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Previous Current



Real GDP (percent change from a year earlier)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000

Q1

2000

Q4

2001

Q3

2002

Q2

2003

Q1

2003

Q4

2004

Q3

2005

Q2

2006

Q1

2006

Q4

2007

Q3

2008

Q2

2009

Q1

2009

Q4

2010

Q3

World Advanced Emerging




-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234567

20

00

Q1

20

00

Q3

20

01

Q1

20

01

Q3

20

02

Q1

20

02

Q3

20

03

Q1

20

03

Q3

20

04

Q1

20

04

Q3

20

05

Q1

20

05

Q3

20

06

Q1

20

06

Q3

20

07

Q1

20

07

Q3

20

08

Q1

20

08

Q3

20

09

Q1

20

09

Q3

20

10

Q1

20

10

Q3

United States Euro area Japan




-8

-3

2

7

12

2000

Q1

2000

Q3

2001

Q1

2001

Q3

2002

Q1

2002

Q3

2003

Q1

2003

Q3

2004

Q1

2004

Q3

2005

Q1

2005

Q3

2006

Q1

2006

Q3

2007

Q1

2007

Q3

2008

Q1

2008

Q3

2009

Q1

2009

Q3

2010

Q1

2010

Q3

China India NIEs ASEAN




13

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

20

00

Q1

20

00

Q3

20

01

Q1

20

01

Q3

20

02

Q1

20

02

Q3

20

03

Q1

20

03

Q3

20

04

Q1

20

04

Q3

20

05

Q1

20

05

Q3

20

06

Q1

20

06

Q3

20

07

Q1

20

07

Q3

20

08

Q1

20

08

Q3

20

09

Q1

20

09

Q3

20

10

Q1

20

10

Q3

Latin America Central &Eastern Europe Brazil




0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa



Contribution to Global GDP Growth, PPP Basis (percent three-year moving

averages)

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Other Advanced Economies United States China Rest of the world



Output Gap

-3,0

-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,020

00q1

2000

q3

2001

q1

2001

q3

2002

q1

2002

q3

2003

q1

2003

q3

2004

q1

2004

q3

2005

q1

2005

q3

2006

q1

2006

q3

2007

q1

2007

q3

2008

q1

2008

q3

Euro area United States Average of other advanced economies



United States Potential Growth (percent)

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1

Output gap (CBO) Potential GDP growth Output gap



Euro Area Potential Growth (percent)

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4


Output gap (CBO) Potential GDP growth Output gap



East Asia Potential Growth (percent)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


Potential GDP growth Output gap



20

3,6

5,5

10,7

7,89,1

7,3

3,0 2,5

-11,9-14,0

-11,0

-8,0

-5,0

-2,0

1,0

4,0

7,0

10,0

13,020

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09 (

*)

20

10 (

*)

(*) Tahmin

Dünya Ticareti (Yıllık % Değişim)



Elasticity of World Trade to World Income by Decade

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s



Küresel Sanayi Üretimi ve Dünya Ticareti Büyümesi

(3 Aylık Hareketli Ortalama)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15O

ca.0

5

Mar

.05

May

.05

Tem

.05

Eyl

.05

Kas

.05

Oca

.06

Mar

.06

May

.06

Tem

.06

Eyl

.06

Kas

.06

Oca

.07

Mar

.07

May

.07

Tem

.07

Eyl

.07

Kas

.07

Oca

.08

Mar

.08

May

.08

Tem

.08

Eyl

.08

Kas

.08

Oca

.09

Mar

.09

May

.09

Tem

.09

(yü

zde

)

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Sanayi Üretimi Mal Ticareti (sağ eksen)



Retail Sales

-16

-11

-6

-1

4

9

14

19

24

29

20

05

m1

20

06

m1

20

07

m1

20

08

m1

20

09

m1

World Advanced economies Emerging economies Emerging Asia



Küresel Satın Alma Yöneticileri Endeksi ve Öncü Göstergeler (Ocak 2004 – Eylül 2009)

Kaynak: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs, TCMB


Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index

30

40

50

60

2000m1 2001m1 2002m1 2003m1 2004m1 2005m1 2006m1 2007m1 2008m1 2009m1

Advanced economies Emerging economies



Baltık Kuru Yük Taşımacılık Endeksi

(Ocak 2002 – Ekim 2009)

400

2400

4400

6400

8400

10400

12400

Oca.02 Oca.03 Oca.04 Oca.05 Oca.06 Oca.07 Oca.08 Oca.09

Kaynak: Reuters (20 Ekim 2009)

26


Annualized Changes in Global Metal Production from Peaks to Troughs(seasonally adjusted, in percent)

-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10

Aluminum

Copper

Lead

Nickel

Tin

Zinc

Apr, 08–Feb, 09 Previous Cycle



World Copper and Aluminum Consumption Growth by Regions

(millons of metric tons)

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

United States Other advanced economies China Emerging and Developing Economies



Aluminum(net imports in million tons price

differantial in percent)

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,520

07

2008

2009

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Chinese Net Imports SFE/ LME monthly price differential



Copper(net imports in million tons price

differantial in percent)

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,420

07

2008

2009

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Chinese Net Imports SFE/ LME monthly price differential



Residential Investment/GDP(percentage point deviation)

-1,2

-0,8

-0,4

0

0,4

0,8

1,2

-12 -8 -4 0 4 8

pre-1985 post-1985



House Price Growth

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-12 -8 -4 0 4 8

pre-1985 post-1985



Capital Investment/GDP(percentage point deviation)

-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

-12 -8 -4 0 4 8

pre-1985 post-1985



Stock Price Growth

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-12 -8 -4 0 4 8

pre-1985 post-1985



Output Growth

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

-12 -8 -4 0 4 8

pre-1985 post-1985



Yoksulluk Görünümü (Uluslararası yoksulluk sınırı olan günlük 1,25 Doların

altında geliri olanlar, %)

8,36,6

2,7

34,8

46,7

38,0

21,3

3,2

11,5

7,87,0

2,5

33,9

46,0

37,2

20,7

3,3

10,4

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

45,0

50,0D

oğ

u A

sy

a v

eP

as

ifik

Av

rup

a v

eO

rta

As

ya

La

tin

Am

eri

ka

ve

Ka

ray

iple

r

Ort

a D

oğ

u v

eK

uze

y A

frik

a

Gü

ne

y A

sy

a

Sa

hra

Alt

ıA

frik

a

Dü

ny

a

Dü

şü

k G

eli

rli

ülk

ele

r

Ort

a G

eli

rli

Ülk

ele

r

2008 2009

Kaynak: Dünya Bankası, Global Monitoring Report,2009Kaynak: Dünya Bankası, Global Monitoring Report,2009Kaynak: Dünya Bankası, Global Monitoring Report,2009Kaynak: Dünya Bankası, Global Monitoring Report,2009


Employment

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005

m1

2006

m1

2007

m1

2008

m1

2009

m1

World Advanced economies Emerging economies



8,3

18,220,2

11,3

7,5

7,6

9,9

11,7

4,65,8

9,310,1

3,8 4,05,4

6,1

2,0

5,0

8,0

11,0

14,0

17,0

20,0

23,0

2007 2008 2009 (*) 2010 (*)

İspanya Avro Bölgesi ABD Japonya

(*) Tahmin


İşsizlik Oranları (%)

38


Advanced Economies Unemployment Rates (percent)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014




Emerging and Developing Economies Unemployment Rates (percent)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Asia Africa and Middle East Latin America CEE and CIS



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2007M1 2007M4 2007M7 2007M10 2008M1 2008M4 2008M7 2008M10 2009M1 2009M4 2009M7

France Germany UK Spain

Unemployment Rates in Selected Advanced Europe Economies (percent)

Unemployment Rates in Selected Advanced Europe Economies (percent)



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

200701 200704 200707 200710 200801 200804 200807 200810 200901 200904 200907

Hungary Romania Poland Latvia

Unemployment Rates in Selected Emerging Europe Economies (percent)

Unemployment Rates in Selected Emerging Europe Economies (percent)



Consumer Prices

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

Advanced economies Developing countries (median)



Inflation(percentage point of deviation)

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-12 -8 -4 0 4 8

pre-1985 post-1985



House Price Rises and Subsequent Falls

-40-30-20-10

01020304050607080

JPN

AU

T

CH

E

GR

C

ITA

FIN

CA

N

DE

N

FR

A

NZ

L

Change in real house prices (2001:q4-2006:Q3)

Real house price falls from recent peak



Vulnerability Including House PricesVulnerability Including House Prices

High risk >0,5 Japan IrelandModerate risk 0,3<Index<0,5 Greece Netherlands

Singapore HongkongThailand CanadaAustria RussiaFrance MalaysiaDenmark United StatesGermany New ZealandItaly ChinaSpain FinlandSwitzerland Taiwan POCBelgium South Africa

Low risk <0,3 Portugal United KingdomKorea NorwaySweden Australia



Stock Price and Subsequent Falls

-100

0

100

200

300

JPN

AU

T

CH

E

GR

C

ITA

FIN

CA

N

DE

N

FR

A

NZ

L

Change in real stock prices (2001:Q4-2006:Q3)

Real stock price falls from recent peak



Selected Metal Prices (January 2006=100)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2014

Copper Copper futures Aluminium

Aluminium Futures Nickel Nickel Futures

Lead Lead Futures



Core CPI Inflation

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

2000q1 2002q1 2004q1 2006q1 2008q1

Euro area United States Average of other advanced economies



Core Inflation

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

2002

m1

2002

m5

2002

m9

2003

m1

2003

m5

2003

m9

2004

m1

2004

m5

2004

m9

2005

m1

2005

m5

2005

m9

2006

m1

2006

m5

2006

m9

2007

m1

2007

m5

2007

m9

2008

m1

2008

m5

2008

m9

2009

m1

2009

m5




Headline Inflation

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2002

m1

2002

m4

2002

m7

2002

m10

2003

m1

2003

m4

2003

m7

2003

m10

2004

m1

2004

m4

2004

m7

2004

m10

2005

m1

2005

m4

2005

m7

2005

m10

2006

m1

2006

m4

2006

m7

2006

m10

2007

m1

2007

m4

2007

m7

2007

m10

2008

m1

2008

m4

2008

m7

2008

m10

2009

m1

2009

m4

2009

m7




52

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2002

m1

2002

m5

2002

m9

2003

m1

2003

m5

2003

m9

2004

m1

2004

m5

2004

m9

2005

m1

2005

m5

2005

m9

2006

m1

2006

m5

2006

m9

2007

m1

2007

m5

2007

m9

2008

m1

2008

m5

2008

m9

2009

m1

2009

m5


Advanced Economies: Headline Inflation



Advanced Economies: Core Inflation

53

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

2002

m1

2002

m5

2002

m9

2003

m1

2003

m5

2003

m9

2004

m1

2004

m5

2004

m9

2005

m1

2005

m5

2005

m9

2006

m1

2006

m5

2006

m9

2007

m1

2007

m5

2007

m9

2008

m1

2008

m5

2008

m9

2009

m1

2009

m5




Emerging Economies Headline Inflation

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2002

m1

2002

m5

2002

m9

2003

m1

2003

m5

2003

m9

2004

m1

2004

m5

2004

m9

2005

m1

2005

m5

2005

m9

2006

m1

2006

m5

2006

m9

2007

m1

2007

m5

2007

m9

2008

m1

2008

m5

2008

m9

2009

m1

2009

m5

China India Brazil Russia



Deflation Indicator

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

1994

q1

1994

q4

1995

q3

1996

q2

1997

q1

1997

q4

1998

q3

1999

q2

2000

q1

2000

q4

2001

q3

2002

q2

2003

q1

2003

q4

2004

q3

2005

q2

2006

q1

2006

q4

2007

q3

2008

q2

2009

q1

2009

q4

Vulnerability indicator Vulnerability including house prices

High Risk

Moderate Risk

Low Risk



2,5

15,8

30,7

41,336,4

-36,6

24,3

1,95,9

15,2

6,1

23,2

14,1

7,52,4

10,7

20,5

-20,3

-45,0

-30,0

-15,0

0,0

15,0

30,0

45,02

00

2

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

(*)

20

10

(*)

Ham Petrol Enerji Dışı(*) Tahmin


Emtia Fiyatları (Yıllık % Değişim)

56


Commodity Price Indices (January 2003=100)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2003

M1

2003

M4

2003

M7

2003

M10

2004

M1

2004

M4

2004

M7

2004

M10

2005

M1

2005

M4

2005

M7

2005

M10

2006

M1

2006

M4

2006

M7

2006

M10

2007

M1

2007

M4

2007

M7

2007

M10

2008

M1

2008

M4

2008

M7

2008

M10

2009

M1

2009

M4

2009

M7

Energy Food Agricultural Raw Materials Metals Beverages



Commodity Prices in Global Recession and Recoveries

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

IMF Commodity Price Index

Fuel

Nonfuel

Crude oil

Base metals

Agricultural raw materials

Food

Average of past five recoveries Current Recovery

Average of past five recessions Current Recession


DÜNYA EKONOMİSİ REEL SEKTÖR

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