Dubska new paradigm - Stat · The New Paradigm – Why is Important to Measure the Progress of...

CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICENa padesátém 81, CZ - 100 82 Praha 10, Czech Republic

www.czso.cz

The New Paradigm – Why is it Important to Measure the Progress

of Societies?

Statistical Days 2010, Radenci, Slovenia,

November, 8-10


www.czso.cz

The New Paradigm – Why is Important to Measure the Progress of Societies?

� The paradigm of „economic governance“ and

dominating consumption

� Genesis of the change (three pillars of the

development, indicators)

� The new paradigm – the progress without growth; a

responsible considering

� Conclusion

Content


www.czso.cz

Measuring the Progress

Paradigm of „economic governance“:

World economy

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1992-2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Re

al

GD

P (

y/y

in

%)

US Euro area Brazil China India Russia


www.czso.cz


� Poverty – not so positive movement during the last

decade

� Loss of wealth during global crisis – assets under

management in the world slimmed down by 12 %

(households´property in the US –22 %, in Europe –6 %)

� Future expectations of households – optimistic China, the other big developing countries pessimistic; in Europe

compared to US the share of those who feel in financial

danger is lower


Inequalities


www.czso.cz


� In 2007 – 6.8 bil. people in the global population

� In 2030 – another Globe would be necessary to absorb

the carbon dioxide emissions due to increases in the population

� In case that the rate of emissions in the rest of world is the same as in the US or United Arab Emirates so 4.5

Globes would be necessary in 2030


Natural resources


www.czso.cz


� Activities of OECD during 2004-2005 resulted in the new global project „Measuring the Progress of Societies“

� Future basic changes of the global statistical system came through three forums: Palermo 2004, Istanbul 2007 and Busan

2009 with basic theme „Statistics, knowledge and politics“

� Istanbul declaration accented the need of the wider view on

the progress (to measure the social prosperity, the quality of life)

� In Busan OECD accepts already an obligation to define

priorities and to develop the measurements, methods and tools

Genesis of the change


www.czso.cz

Measuring the ProgressGenesis of the change

The report of the so-called Stiglitz Commission as an authoritative opinion


www.czso.cz


� The progress in society exists when there is evident

improvement in sustainable, equitable, fair and spreading well-

being in society

� To record the prosperity (well-being) means to measure the

satisfaction of individuals and their expectation (i.e. their health, education, relationships, how they spend their leisure,

participation on the public life, etc.)

� Also, an inequalities should be measured (in income, wealth,

miscellaneous handicaps…) as well as capital needed for sustainable well-being and influence of production on the capital

Genesis of the change: Definition of progress


www.czso.cz


Happiness and satisfaction with the life – to measure it seems to be extremely difficult…

Genesis of the change


www.czso.cz


� Economic pillar – measured since 30´s of last century

� Environmental pillar – measured roughly since 80´s

� Social pillar –tracked continuously since the beginning of

the classic economy in analyses of disparities

� Both Istanbul Declaration and Stiglitz report proposed

the transition from metrics of market production (GDP) to

the more extensively understood system concentrated on prosperity (well-being) and its change in time (progress)

Three pillars of the development of society


www.czso.cz


� It is necessary to develop the apt indicators of biodiversity and ecosystem capable to record the parts of critical nature capital

� „Ecological footprint“ is popular indicator but as well as GDP it does not measure all aspects of sustainability of the human

living environment :

� It only says how much of approachable bio-capacity the

society appropriates for its own needs

� It illustrates rather unfavourable development of nature

capital

Three pillars of the development of society:

Pillar of sustainability


www.czso.cz



www.czso.cz


� Human prosperity and social well-being

� The difference between economic performance of the country conveyed by media and subjective perceptions

� It does not result from a low level of the official statisticsbut their unsuitable usage – distortions in analyses and

incorrect aims of politics

� The research recommend to use social dynamics together

with sustainability: Consumption cutback, lengthening the life-

cycle of things, recycling, education of children…

Three pillars of the development of society:

Social pillar


www.czso.cz



www.czso.cz


� Conditions of ecosystem - land, fresh water, biodiversity,

oceans, atmosphere

� Human well-being - physical and mental health, work and

leisure, knowledge, freedom, interpersonal relationships

� Economy – national income, national wealth

� Administration and governance - human rights, civic initiatives, security and criminality, accessing to services

� Culture – culture heritage, arts and leisure time

� Utilisable resources – exploitation, pollution

Taxanomy of indicators


www.czso.cz


� Strengths: Relatively advanced statistical system,

invention of academicians

� Weaknesses: Risk of non-acceptance by official

statistics, pessimism regarding aims, shortage of sources

� Opportunities: Participation on new conception of

statistics, comparative advantage

� Threats: The rejection by official statistics, scepticism,

fatal failure of sources (staff, budget)

Future of project in the Czech Republic:

SWOT


www.czso.cz


� Limits of national accounts system

� Presumed climax of the project:

� Final aim of project – to appoint directly the

measurements of human well-being and prosperity ofecosystem and the measurements for well-keeping of

them as well

� Intermediary aims – they should be able to cover the

economy, culture, governance due to their key role in human well-being and environmental prosperity

The new paradigm


www.czso.cz


� The problems are global but the means are not global

� The progress without economic growth

� Has the recent crisis been deep enough to be able to

enforce the new paradigm? Not only in introspection of the world but also in behaviour …

� And alternative to the new paradigm? The old one…

The new paradigm


www.czso.cz

Thank you for your attention!

Drahomira Dubska

Economic-Statistical Analyses Department

Czech Statistical Office

[email protected]

Dubska new paradigm - Stat · The New Paradigm – Why is Important to Measure the Progress of...

Documents

Transcript of Dubska new paradigm - Stat · The New Paradigm – Why is Important to Measure the Progress of...