DSD-INT 2015 - uniqueness and generality of delta morphologoy - liang li
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Transcript of DSD-INT 2015 - uniqueness and generality of delta morphologoy - liang li
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1 Challenge the future
Uniqueness and generality of
delta morphology The effect of initial bathymetry perturbations on long-
term morphological modeling
Liang Li Helena van der Vegt Joep Storms Dirkjan Walstra
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2 Challenge the future
Introduction Validity of Process-based long-term
models
Long-term: Unknown initial and boundary conditions
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3 Challenge the future
Introduction Uncertainties
1. Model assessment
2. Sensitivity analysis
3. Geometry population
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4 Challenge the future
Introduction Objective
1. Develop a series of indicators for Delft3d models to calculate the geometry of the morphological patterns.
2. Quantify the effect initial bathymetry perturbations on the delta morphology
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5 Challenge the future
Indicators Why
Ombrone system, Italy Frontera system, Tabasco, Mexico
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6 Challenge the future
Indicators Compare delta morphologies
Point-wise metric Pattern
recognition Short time scale
Long time scale
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7 Challenge the future
Indictors List
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8 Challenge the future
Indictors Channel network, delta plain geometry
Delta plain Channel network
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9 Challenge the future
Model setup Model grid and bathymetry
Model parameters Value Unit
Manning 0.03 1
3s m
Sand diameter 0.00025 m
Sand dry density 1600 3kg m
Clay falling velocity 0.0015 1ms
Clay dry density 500 3kg m
Critical shear stress for clay erosion 0.5 2N m
Morphological acceleration factor 30 [ - ]
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10 Challenge the future
Model setup Initial bathymetry perturbations
1. 1cm perturbations 2. 1000 m3 river discharge 3. 1 m wave height 4. 1 m tidal amplitude
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11 Challenge the future
Morphology Initial bathymetry noise
Unperturbed
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12 Challenge the future
Results Delta plain
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13 Challenge the future
Mean
b 0.16%
c -0.22%
d 0.13%
Mean
b 0.2%
c 2.6%
d 2.7%
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14 Challenge the future
Results Channel networks
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15 Challenge the future
Mean
B 5%
C 7%
D 7.6%
Mean
B 24%
C 33%
D 24%
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16 Challenge the future
Conclusions(1)
1. The difference induced by small perturbations does not increase in time.
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17 Challenge the future
Conclusions(2)
1. The uncertainty range induced by small perturbations varies for different scale of indicators. 1. Small: delta plain 2. Large: channel network